Baltic Dry Index

The Baltic Dry Index ( BDI ) is published by the Baltic Exchange in London and is an important price index for the worldwide shipping of major cargo (mainly coal , iron ore and grain ) on standard routes.

concept

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has been published since 1985 from Monday to Friday at 1:00 p.m. UTC (2:00 p.m. CET ) by the Baltic Exchange, founded in London in 1744, and is determined from standardized information from various market participants. It is divided into the following indices:

• Baltic Capesize Index (BCI),
• Baltic Panamax Index (BPI),
• Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) and
• Baltic Handysize Index (BHSI).

Subgroups of the index take into account 26 main shipping routes and record the costs for time charter and travel charter for four ship classes ( Capesize , Panamax , Supramax and Handysize ) in dry bulk transport. The main cargo is coal , iron ore , cement , copper , gravel , fertilizer , plastic granulate and grain .

In addition to fluctuations in the available cargo space, the development of the index also affects port capacities and seasonal fluctuations such as harvest cycles and seasons. The index is not traded on the Baltic Exchange. Unlike the markets for stocks and interest-bearing securities , the BDI is free from speculation . No arbitrage is possible between the Forward Freight Agreements (FFAs) on the BDI and the index itself . FFAs are freight derivatives and cannot be traded on the exchange.

The freight rates are determined exclusively from the information provided by ship brokers , shipping companies and charterers . Only real demand and real supply for the transport of raw materials on standard routes are included in the price. In contrast to the economic data, the BDI data are not subject to any subsequent changes. The method used to determine the Baltic Dry Index does not allow manipulation. The daily updates are made in real time.

The Baltic Dry Index is not published on most UK bank holidays . No trading on the Baltic Exchange takes place annually on Good Friday, Easter Monday, May Day (first Monday in May), Spring Day (last Monday in May) and Summer Day (last Monday in August). In addition, the Baltic Exchange is closed between Christmas (December 25th) and the New Year. If New Year falls on a weekend, the holiday will be made up on Monday.

Leading indicator for world trade

Baltic Dry Index 1985-2011 (linear scale)

Apparently there is a connection between freight rates and raw material prices and the demand for metals, fuels and food. Since the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) determines the shipping costs of raw materials, the preliminary stage of production, it precisely measures the volume of world trade at the initial stage. The BDI is therefore a leading indicator for the global economy. Other indices, on the other hand, show later stages of economic development when semi-finished or finished products have emerged from the raw materials.

The greater the number of goods to be shipped, the greater the demand and the higher the shipping price. An upward movement in the BDI signals an increase in global trade, a downward movement the opposite. The index shows clear cyclical turning points at the beginning and at the end of every recession and the upswing that follows. The course of the BDI allows clear conclusions to be drawn about the real development of world trade, and the BDI's lead time before the real development is usually 8 to 12 months.

Changes in the BDI are also an indicator for the price development of the shares of companies in the shipping sector. There is a certain synchronization between the development of the BDI and the raw material index .

Over 90 percent of world trade, almost 95 percent of the European Union's foreign trade and almost 70 percent of German imports and exports are carried out by sea. The bulk carriers recorded by the BDI (also known as bulk carriers) have a 55 percent share of the shipping market. Particularly dry bulk goods such as iron ore, coal and cement are required at the beginning of a production process, so that the BDI is seen as a leading economic indicator.

Ship classes

The world's largest bulk carrier is the Vale Brasil , built in 2010 by Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering , the Brazilian mining company Vale (formerly CVRD), with a loading capacity of around 400,000 tons and a length of 362 meters. The following overview shows the ship classes in the Baltic Dry Index, the number of ships and the percentage distribution of bulk carriers in September 2011.

Ship classes in the Baltic Dry Index

Ship classes	Capacity in tdw	Number of ships	Percentage ownership %	Load capacity in million dwt	Percentage ownership %	Index weight in%
Capesize	over 100,000	1,267	14.7	229.5	39.6	25th
Panamax	60,000-99,999	1.934	22.5	147.0	25.3	25th
Supramax	40,000-59,999	2,353	27.4	119.9	20.7	25th
Handysize	10,000-39,999	3,049	35.4	83.6	14.4	25th
total		8,603	100.0	580.0	100.0	100

Main shipping routes

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is divided into four different indices, which take into account 26 main shipping routes and record the costs for time charter and travel charter for four ship classes ( Capesize , Panamax , Supramax and Handysize ) in bulk cargo transport. The table shows the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) as an example, which is calculated from the prices of ten Capesize routes.

When aggregating the freight rates for the individual routes to the BCI, fixed conversion factors are used which, among other things, take into account the different notation of the freight rates (US dollars per ton or US dollars per day). The weighting within the BCI is carried out according to the importance of the routes and is adjusted at irregular intervals by the Baltic Exchange .

Capesize freighters cannot cross the Suez Canal or the Panama Canal because of their size . So you have to drive between the oceans around Cape Horn or the Cape of Good Hope . Capesize ships are almost exclusively involved in the transport of iron ore and coal. They have a share of ten percent in the world merchant fleet and 62 percent in bulk goods traffic.

Capesize routes and their weighting in the Baltic Capesize Index

Surname	route	Transport goods (bulk goods)	Size (tons)	Index weight in%
C2	Tubarão ( Brazil ) - Rotterdam ( Netherlands )	Iron ore	160,000	10
C3	Tubarão (Brazil) - Beilun / Baoshan ( China )	Iron ore	150,000	15th
C4	Richards Bay ( South Africa ) –Rotterdam (Netherlands)	coal	150,000	5
C5	Western Australia –Beilun / Baoshan (China)	Iron ore	150,000	15th
C7	Bolívar ( Colombia ) –Rotterdam (Netherlands)	coal	150,000	5
C8_03	Collection and delivery: Gibraltar area - Hamburg ; Transatlantic round trip; Duration: 30 to 45 days	Time charter	172,000	10
C9_03	Collection: ARA¹ or drive past Capo Passero ( Italy ); Delivery: China- Japan area ; Duration: about 65 days	Time charter	172,000	5
C10_03	Collection and delivery: China-Japan area; North Pacific Round Trip; Duration: 30 to 40 days	Time charter	172,000	20th
C11_03	Collection: China-Japan area; Delivery: ARA¹ or drive past Capo Passero (Italy); Duration: about 65 days	Time charter	172,000	5
C12	Gladstone ( Australia ) –Rotterdam (Netherlands)	coal	150,000	10

¹ ARA = Amsterdam, Rotterdam (Netherlands) and Antwerp (Belgium)

history

Development 1985–2002

The index was first published on January 4, 1985 under the name “Baltic Freight Index” (BFI) with a base value of 1,000 points. It was renamed “Baltic Dry Index” (BDI) on November 1, 1999. For all data, please note that these refer to the nominal prices in US dollars for the respective survey period, ie are not adjusted for inflation .

On July 31, 1986 the freight rate index marked a nominal 554 points (inflation-adjusted 1,290 points) its lowest level. Since the highest level on April 16, 1985 with 1,064 points (inflation-adjusted 2,523 points) the index has lost 47.9 percent. A capacity bottleneck in bulk carriers (lowest level since 1980) caused the index to rise by 216.1 percent to 1,751 points (adjusted for inflation: 3,603 points) by May 16, 1989.

The global recession of 1990/91, triggered by the consolidation measures of the US administration under George HW Bush after the spending-friendly era under Ronald Reagan , made itself felt in a drop in freight rates. On July 11, 1990, the index was 1,056 points (2,061 points adjusted for inflation), 39.7 percent lower than on May 16, 1989.

The economic boom in the early 1990s caused freight rates to rise by 127.7 percent between 1992 and 1995. In 1994 world exports of goods grew in real terms, i.e. adjusted for inflation, by 9.3 percent. On May 1, 1995, the Baltic Freight Index marked an all-time high of 2,352 points (adjusted for inflation: 3,938 points), which lasted until September 12, 2003.

The decline in real growth in global trade in goods in 1995 to 7.4 percent and in 1996 to 5.1 percent caused freight rates to fall. On September 25, 1996, the index stood at 992 points (1,613 points adjusted for inflation), which is 57.8 percent lower. By March 24, 1997, it rose to an interim high of 1,526 points (adjusted for inflation, 2,426 points).

Several regional economic crises ( Asian crisis 1997/98, Russian crisis 1998/99, Brazilian crisis 1999) caused transport activity on the world's oceans to decline. On January 19, 1999, a value of 777 points (adjusted for inflation, 1,190 points) was determined for the index. The loss since March 24, 1997 is 49.1 percent. The recovery of the world economy led the BDI to a level of 1,762 points by November 3, 2000 (2,611 points adjusted for inflation).

During the global recession of 2001, triggered by the end of the boom in the IT and communications industry ( dot-com bubble ) in March 2000, freight rates fell again. On November 7, 2001, the index closed at 843 points (1,215 points adjusted for inflation) and thus 52.2 percent lower than a year earlier.

Economic boom in Asia 2002–2008

In the period from autumn 2002 to spring 2008, the Baltic Dry Index rose sharply due to an enormous demand for raw materials in the People's Republic of China and India . On January 9, 2004, the index exceeded the 5,000 mark for the first time with 5,046 points. By December 6, 2004, the BDI rose to a high of 6,208 points (8,386 points adjusted for inflation).

The high demand for raw materials caused the payback period for new ships to drop to a low level and led to a boom in the shipbuilding industry . The capacity bottleneck in bulk carriers gave way to an oversupply. Real growth in global exports of goods fell from 9.7 percent in 2004 to 6.5 percent in 2005. As a result, the freight rate index collapsed by 71.9 percent to 1,747 points by August 3, 2005 (2,283 points adjusted for inflation).

The increase in demand for transport services from Asia and the sustained economic growth caused the BDI to rise again sharply. On October 10, 2007, the index exceeded the limit of 10,000 points for the first time with 10,218 points. On May 20, 2008, it marked an all-time high of 11,793 points (adjusted for inflation: 13,976 points). Since August 3, 2005 this corresponds to an increase of 575.0 percent.

In 2007, goods worth 14 trillion US dollars were traded internationally (goods exports). Thereof As reported by the World Trade Organization (WTO) 90 percent by letters of credit ( English letter of credit ) or other payment guarantees secured. In the same year newbuilding orders for more than 10,000 ship units with a value of 233 billion US dollars were placed worldwide. The number of orders meant a historic record for sea transport.

2008/2009 economic crisis

In 2008, the international financial crisis , which had its origins in the US real estate crisis in 2007, increasingly affected the real economy . As a result, real growth in the volume of world trade fell : 6.5 percent (2007), 2.3 percent (2008) and -12.1 percent (2009). The financial crisis led to a collapse in trade finance, as banks hardly entered into any payment obligations among themselves. Overcapacities due to a lack of demand caused problems for the shipping industry. Numerous orders for new ships had to be postponed or canceled due to financing problems, shipowners shut down freighters or closed entire parts of the operation.

As a result of the global economic slowdown, freight rates fell sharply, particularly from the end of the third quarter of 2008. On December 5, 2008, the Baltic Dry Index fell to a nominal level of 663 points (adjusted for inflation: 786 points) to its lowest level since 1986. Since the all-time high of May 20, 2008, this corresponds to a decline of 94.4 percent. This is the biggest fall in the history of the BDI. Freight rates for Capesize ships, the largest class of ships in the Baltic Dry Index, have dropped from the all-time high of $ 233,988 per day on June 5, 2008 to $ 2,316 per day on December 2, 2008, on average 99.0 percent decline. The prices were thus temporarily below the operating costs .

Freight rates recovery in 2009

Freight rates recovered in the course of 2009. On November 19, 2009, a Capesize ship was paying an average of $ 87,118 per day. The Baltic Dry Index ended 2009 at 3,005 points. The high was on November 19 at 4,661 points, the low on January 5 at 772 points. With an increase of 288.2 percent, it was the best year in history. In second place is 2003 with a profit of 174.2 percent and in third place is 2007 with an increase of 107.9 percent.

The main reason for the increase in freight rates in 2009 was the demand for iron ore in China, the largest producer of crude steel . In June 2009, according to the London shipbroker Simpson Spence & Young, 154 cargo ships or around 18 percent of the global fleet of bulk carriers were waiting in front of the ports in Australia, Brazil and China to load or unload raw materials. At the height of the freight boom in May 2008 there were 115 ships, at the end of November 2008 there were 75 ships waiting in front of the ports. The recovery of the index was also due to the Chinese stimulus package worth around 600 billion US dollars, which led to strong economic growth.

Overcapacity and natural disasters 2010/2011

The Baltic Dry Index closed 2010 at 1,773 points. The high on May 26th was 4,209 points and the low on July 15th was 1,700 points. With a minus of 41.0 percent, the year was the fourth worst in history. Only the years 2008 (−91.5 percent), 2005 (−47.7 percent) and 2001 (−45.2 percent) were worse. The reason for the decline in 2010 was a decline in the demand for raw materials in China. The country had sufficiently stocked up on iron ore in particular that there was no longer any major demand for the time being. In the real estate market , an important buyer of steel products, measures by the Chinese government to counter the real estate bubble caused construction activity to slow down.

On February 4, 2011, the Baltic Dry Index fell to 1,043 points. Since the interim high on September 10, 2010 at 2,995 points, the loss has been 65.2 percent. The main reasons were free cargo capacities due to the booming shipbuilding industry, the floods in Australia and poor harvests in many parts of the world. Natural disasters , including damage, delivery delays, production losses and price increases, are part of the global economy. For the first time since December 2008, the freight rates of all four ship classes in the index (Capesize, Panamax, Supramax and Handysize) fell below the total costs for operation, interest and depreciation. The slump was particularly severe among Capesize ships, the second largest class of ships in the world merchant fleet after tankers . On February 28, 2011, prices were $ 4,567 per day, below operating costs. Since the high on October 26, 2010 at $ 46,434 a day, the loss is 90.2 percent. Because of the low freight rates, numerous shipowners were in financial difficulties. Korea Line Corporation, the second largest South Korean bulk carrier operator, filed for bankruptcy protection on January 27, 2011 . At the end of September 2010, the shipping company had debts of 1.48 billion euros. With 39 of its own and 150 chartered ships, the company operated one of the world's largest fleets of bulk carriers.

A revival in demand for the transport of iron ore to the People's Republic of China caused the BDI to rise to an annual high of 2,173 points on October 14, 2011. The profit since February 4, 2011 is 108.3 percent. In 2011 the index ended at 1,738 points, 2.0 percent lower than a year earlier. Real growth in world trade slowed from 14.1 percent in 2010 to 5.6 percent in 2011.

Historic lows of the BDI in 2012

On February 3, 2012, the Baltic Dry Index closed nominally at 647 points, its lowest level since August 27, 1986. The loss since the high on October 14, 2011 is 70.2 percent and since the all-time high on May 20, 2008 at 94.5 percent. In real terms, i.e. adjusted for inflation, an all-time low was marked. January 2012 was the second worst month in history with a minus of 60.9 percent. Only October 2008 was worse with a decrease of 73.5 percent. The weakening of world trade, declining economic activity in the People's Republic of China and the euro crisis led to a decline in shipments. Numerous newbuilding deliveries and a lack of demand increased the overcapacities on the shipping market.

A recovery in demand in the smaller ship classes (Panamax, Supramax and Handysize) caused the BDI to increase by 80.1 percent to 1,165 points by May 8, 2012.

On September 12, 2012 the Baltic Dry Index was listed at 661 points, 43.3 percent lower than 4 months earlier. The freight prices of all four classes of ships in the index fell below the total cost of operation, interest and depreciation. The slump was most pronounced in the area of ​​large bulk carriers, which are mainly used to transport ore and coal to China. Since the interim high on December 12, 2011 at 32,889 US dollars per day, the prices of Capesize ships fell by 92.0 percent to 21 August 2012 to 2,644 US dollars per day. This is the lowest level since December 4, 2008. Only the fall in 2008 was greater, with a decline of 99.0 percent. The low freight rates led to financial problems for numerous shipping companies. On August 8, 2012, the British maritime transport company Stephenson Clarke Shipping, founded in 1730, was closed. The oldest shipping company in the world, based in Newcastle upon Tyne , operated more than 30 bulk carriers in its heyday in the 1990s.

The year 2012 ended the Baltic Dry Index 59.8 percent lower than at the end of 2011. After 2008 (−91.5 percent) it was the second worst year in history. The year-end level of 699 points was the lowest since the index was introduced in 1985. After 2010 (−41.0 percent) and 2011 (−2.0 percent), the BDI posted the third year of losses in 2012. On an annual average, freight prices were nominally at their lowest level since 1986 and in real terms at an all-time low.

All-time low in 2016

With 290 points, the BDI hit its all-time low on February 10, 2016.

Ship indices in comparison

The freight rates for bulk carriers were in late 2008 / early 2009, with a decline of 94 percent compared with the freight and charter Another important classes of ships for long distance transport (container ships, product and oil tankers) from the credit crunch (English: "Credit Crunch") most affected. In December 2008, the Baltic Dry Index fell just short of its all-time low of July 1986 at 663 points, which was recorded at 554 points.

The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (freight rates for crude oil) lost 80.7 percent in the course of the financial crisis. The HARPEX (charter rates for container ships) lost 78.1 percent, the Baltic Clean Tanker Index (freight rates for oil products) fell by 77.1 percent and the Howe Robinson Container Index (charter rates for container ships) fell by 76.6 percent. All indices hit an all-time low in 2009.

With the recovery of the global economy, the Baltic Indices rose sharply until the end of 2009 / beginning of 2010. HARPEX and HRCI only recovered from their lows at the end of 2009 in mid-2010. One reason for the different development is the great dependence of the Baltic Indices on Chinese raw material imports. They each only reflect one aspect of the freight business.

The container indices, on the other hand, measure tonnage in a broader market segment, container transport. Here, not bulk goods, crude oil or oil products are recorded, but consumer and industrial products. HARPEX and HRCI are closer to consumption and not early cycle like the Baltic Indices. While the Baltic Dry Index is viewed as an early indicator of economic developments, the container indices are indicators of the current state of world trade.

With the slowdown in economic development, the Baltic Dry Index and the container indices fell sharply again at the end of 2011 / beginning of 2012. The BDI fell to the level of August 1986 in February 2012. The tanker indices recorded lower losses.

The highs and lows of the most important indices for freight and charter rates during the financial crisis from 2007.

Highs and lows

index	Cargo type	High in points	date	Low in points	date	Change in%
Baltic Dry Index	Bulk material	11,793	May 20, 2008	484	16 Dec 2015	−94.5
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index	crude oil	2,347	July 23, 2008	453	Apr 15, 2009	−80.7
HARPEX	Container	1,445	Feb 16, 2008	317	Dec 26, 2009	−78.1
Baltic Clean Tanker Index	Oil products¹	1,509	June 19, 2008	345	Apr 15, 2009	-77.1
Howe Robinson Container Index	Container	1.406	26 Sep 2007	329	Nov 25, 2009	−76.6

¹ Petrol, diesel, heating oil and kerosene

Freight rates

overview

Time charter rates for bulk carriers 2001–2012

Freight rates are the price for transporting goods by sea. They ensure that supply and demand for transport space remain in balance. Demand often changes very quickly, while supply changes very slowly. The size, age, route and speed of the ships have an influence on the freight rates. In the short term, the speed and use of the ships determine the freight rates. In the long term, it is decisions about investments that result in orders for scrapping and new construction.

The Baltic Dry Index includes the costs for time charter and travel charter for four ship classes in its calculation. With the time charter, the freight rate is paid in US dollars per day. The charterer has the ship for a fixed contract period. The charterer pays fuel and port fees. When chartered, the freight rate is paid in US dollars per ton. The shipowner pays fuel and port fees.

Time charter contracts are concluded to compensate for the strong fluctuations in the market for freight rates and make them manageable. These contracts allow the ships to be leased to a charterer for a longer period (usually six months to ten years) for a fixed price. Only minor changes can be made during the term of the contract. The advantage for the shipowner and the charterer is a better calculation basis. The time charter contract thus serves as a hedge against the high volatility of freight rates. Forward Freight Agreements (FFAs) are used to make the hedge business more flexible and effective .

The bulk of the Capesize class are the largest class of ships in the Baltic Dry Index. On June 5, 2008, the Baltic Exchange determined the highest daily average freight rates for a Capesize ship at 233,988 US dollars per day. The lowest daily average freight rates were recorded on January 9, 2015 at 311 US dollars per day.

The following parts numbers of the index seem since 2012 is out of date to be : The addition of recent years and the adaptation of the graphics are missing.
Please help to research and insert the missing information .

Highs and lows

The following table shows the high and low freight rates for the Capesize, Panamax, Supramax and Handysize ship classes in US dollars per day.

Highs and lows

Ship class	All time high in $ / day	date	All time low in $ / day	date	Change in%
Capesize	233,988	June 5, 2008	311	Jan. 9, 2015	−99.87
Panamax	94.997	Oct 30, 2007	418	27 Sep 2012	−99.56
Supramax	72,729	Oct 30, 2007	455	Dec 10, 2015	-99.37
Handysize	49,397	May 22, 2008	260	Feb. 18, 2015	−99.47

Development of freight rates

The overview shows the development of freight rates for the ship classes Capesize, Panamax, Supramax and Handysize in US dollars per day since 2006.

Freight rates in $ / day

date	Capesize	Panamax	Supramax	Handysize
Dec 31, 2006	67,663	34,463	30,066	22,496
31 Mar 2007	91.997	40,399	36,413	26,108
June 30, 2007	100,713	51,870	42,236	28,471
Sep 30 2007	166,634	76,149	58,432	40,609
Dec 31, 2007	157.128	66,716	60,828	42,075
31 Mar 2008	139,739	63,399	50,476	35,428
June 30, 2008	163.233	77,671	61.094	39,262
Sep 30 2008	41,159	19,294	28,532	19,891
Dec 31, 2008	8,889	4,476	4,405	4.113
31 Mar 2009	18,062	11.001	13,471	9,951
June 30, 2009	80,499	23,275	17,790	10,871
Sep 30 2009	25,698	18,267	20,562	13,725
Dec 31, 2009	37.191	28,620	23,253	16,862
31 Mar 2010	30,702	29,566	25,419	20,364
June 30, 2010	23,944	24,675	22,231	17,356
Sep 30 2010	31,942	19,784	19,313	15.192
Dec 31, 2010	20.009	14,711	15,611	12,157
31 Mar 2011	10,371	15,807	15,921	11,849
June 30, 2011	12,732	12,823	13,682	10,565
Sep 30 2011	26,601	13,813	15,678	10,851
Dec 31, 2011	27,512	13,139	12,296	8,319
31 Mar 2012	5,188	8,398	10,767	8,572
June 30, 2012	3,988	7,835	13,145	10,414
Sep 30 2012	8,039	3,389	8,686	6,893
Dec 31, 2012	4,895	5,536	7,607	6,602

operating cost

The operating costs include the costs of crew, insurance, consumables, spare parts, maintenance, repair, routine dockings and Class renewals and management. The average total cost (operations, interest, and depreciation) for a Capesize ship in 2008 was estimated by JPMorgan Chase & Co. to be $ 18,949 per day. The breakdown of costs was as follows: operations $ 6,615 per day, interest $ 6,091 per day, and depreciation $ 6,243 per day. The following table shows the operating, interest, and depreciation costs for the Capesize, Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize ship classes in US dollars per day.

Operating costs, interest and depreciation (2008)

Ship class	Operating costs in $ / day	Cost of interest in $ / day	Depreciation cost in $ / day	Total costs in $ / day
Capesize	6,615	6.091	6.243	18,949
Panamax	5,595	3,448	4.128	13,170
Supramax	5.121	3.152	3,891	12.164
Handysize	4,527	2,028	2,993	9,548

According to a study by Moore Stephens, the operating costs for bulk carriers rose by 76 percent between 2000 and 2010. This corresponds to a growth rate of 5.9 percent per year. In 2011, a Capesize freighter cost 7,437 US dollars per day to operate. This does not include the cost of interest and depreciation. The following overview shows the operating costs for the ship classes Capesize, Panamax, Supramax and Handysize in US dollars per day.

Operating costs in $ / day
(excluding interest and depreciation charges)

Ship class	Operating costs 2010	Operating costs 2011	Change in%
Capesize	7,313	7,437	1.7
Panamax	6.241	6,472	3.7
Supramax	5,820	5,966	2.5
Handysize	5.114	5,278	3.2

BDI and world trade in comparison

see also monthly closing values ​​since 1985

The average of the Baltic Dry Index from 1985 to 2012 is 2,082 points. From 2001 to 2012 the average was 3,132 points. Below are the annual high, low and closing levels, the annual average and the annual performance of the Baltic Dry Index since 1985. For comparison, the overview shows the development of global exports of goods over the same period. With all BDI data, it should be noted that these refer to the nominal prices in US dollars for the respective survey period, i.e. are not adjusted for inflation . Changes in the price of commodities and the dollar can lead to distortions in nominal trade statistics. The information on the world trade volume is therefore based not only on nominal but also on real prices in US dollars.

Baltic Dry Index 1985–2012 (logarithmic scale)

year	maximum stand	date	bottom stand	date	final standing	Verän- alteration in%	Annual throughput cut	Verän- alteration in%	Nominal change in world trade in%	Real change in world trade in%
1984					1,000
1985	1,064	April 16	712	07 Aug	898	−10.2	907	−9.3	−0.1	2.6
1986	920	Jan. 10	554	July 31	699	−22.2	715	−21.2	9.4	4.0
1987	1,271	14 Dec	703	0Jan. 5	1,264	80.8	1,019	42.5	17.7	5.5
1988	1,648	22 Mar	1,171	15th of July	1,543	22.1	1,387	36.1	14.0	8.5
1989	1,751	May 16	1,376	20th of July	1,592	3.2	1,544	11.3	8.0	6.4
1990	1,669	Jan. 19	1,056	July 11th	1,446	−9.2	1,357	−12.1	11.3	3.9
1991	1,780	13 Mar	1,432	0Jan. 8	1,494	3.3	1,590	17.2	1.9	3.7
1992	1,534	Jan. 20	1,033	0Oct 6	1,373	−8.1	1,204	−24.3	7.1	4.8
1993	1,642	May 26	1,215	31 Dec	1,215	−11.5	1,400	16.3	0.5	4.4
1994	2,043	13 Dec	1.110	04th Mar	1.965	61.7	1,478	5.6	14.4	9.3
1995	2,352	01st of May	1,538	0Nov 2	1,604	−18.4	1,983	34.2	19.4	7.4
1996	1,598	0Jan. 2	992	25 Sep	1,516	−5.5	1,318	−33.5	4.6	5.1
1997	1,526	24 Mar	1,168	Nov 26	1,231	−18.8	1,336	1.4	3.5	10.1
1998	1,232	0Jan. 5	780	Aug 12	794	−35.5	946	−29.2	−1.6	4.6
1999	1.406	Oct 21	777	Jan. 19	1,319	66.1	1,065	12.6	3.8	4.6
2000	1,762	0Nov 3	1,319	Jan. 31	1,599	21.2	1,604	50.6	13.0	10.8
2001	1,599	0Jan. 2	843	0Nov 7	876	−45.2	1,181	−26.4	−4.1	−0.2
2002	1,739	23 Dec	882	0Jan. 2	1,738	98.4	1,146	−3.0	4.9	3.5
2003	4,765	December 24	1,530	Jan. 31	4,765	174.2	2,647	131.0	16.8	5.6
2004	6,208	06 Dec	2,622	June 22	4,598	−3.5	4,505	70.2	21.5	9.7
2005	4,880	23 Feb	1,747	03 Aug	2,407	−47.7	3,366	−25.3	13.8	6.5
2006	4,407	0Dec 5	2,033	Jan. 25	4,397	82.7	3.191	−5.2	15.5	8.6
2007	11,039	Nov 13	4,219	0Feb 1	9,143	107.9	7,083	122.0	15.6	6.5
2008	11,793	May 20th	663	0Dec 5	774	−91.5	6.338	−10.5	15.1	2.3
2009	4,661	19 Nov	772	0Jan. 5	3,005	288.2	2,605	−58.9	−22.3	−12.1
2010	4,209	May 26	1,700	15th of July	1,773	−41.0	2,762	6.0	21.7	14.0
2011	2.173	Oct 14	1,043	0Feb 4	1,738	−2.0	1,551	−43.8	19.4	4.9
2012¹	1,624	0Jan. 3	647	0Feb 3	699	−59.8	922	−40.6	−0.5	2.5
2013	2,337	13 Dec	698	0Jan. 2	2277	225.8	?	?	?	?
2014	2.113	0Jan. 2	724	21 July	782	−65.7	?	?	?	?

¹ December 31, 2012

Web links

• Index at Bloomberg
• Index at DryShips
• Index at the Korea Maritime Institute
• Charts at InvestmentTools
• Graphic: BDI versus global trade volume up to 2009

Individual evidence

1. ^ The best economic indicator you've never heard of . Slate Magazine, October 24, 2003
2. ^ Baltic Exchange: Publication dates and times
3. ↑ Gurdip Bakshi (University of Maryland), George Panayotov (Georgetown University), Georgios Skoulakis (University of Maryland): The Baltic Dry Index as a Predictor of Global Stock Returns, Commodity Returns, and Global Economic Activity , October 1, 2010
4. ^ Chamber of Commerce and Industry North: Connected to the world - The national importance of the German seaports (PDF) February 25, 2009
5. ^ Gunther Dütsch: Forward Freight Agreements (FFA) , presentation, Vattenfall Trading Services, June 2007
6. ↑ Fund brokerage 24: Baltic Dry Index
7. ↑ OwnerShip: Ship Fund MS "Seven Islands" ( Memento of the original from January 30, 2012 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was automatically inserted and not yet checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. (PDF; 897 kB), dated November 16, 2011 
8. ↑ Athanasios V. Voudris: Analysis and forecast of the capesize bulk carriers shipping market using Artificial Neural Networks , Massachusetts Institute of Technology, June 2006
9. ^ Baltic Exchange: Index History
10. ↑ ^{a b c d e f} World Trade Organization: International trade and tariff data
11. ↑ Ship Fund Before Stormy Times . In: FAZ , September 22, 2008
12. ↑ WTO warns of an ice age in world trade . In: Handelsblatt , November 13, 2008
13. ↑ Heavy seas and thin air . Focus, December 8, 2008
14. ↑ Speculation - or Economic Recovery? In: FAZ , June 22, 2009
15. ↑ A decline in the Baltic Dry Index is not a good signal for the global economy . In: FAZ , July 6, 2010
16. ↑ Raw materials - gold loses .  ( Page no longer available , search in web archives )  Info: The link was automatically marked as defective. Please check the link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. Deutsche Börse, July 7, 2010  
17. ↑ Investors fear falling freight costs . In: Handelsblatt , January 21, 2011
18. ↑ Freighter crisis brings ship funds into heavy seas . ( Memento from January 28, 2011 in the Internet Archive ) Financial Times Deutschland, January 27, 2011
19. ↑ Fish whets your appetite, cargo ships just seasick . ( Memento from September 17, 2012 in the web archive archive.today ) Wirtschaftsblatt, September 28, 2011
20. ↑ Baltic Dry Index (BDI) falls below 1000 points . Heise online, January 18, 2012
21. ↑ World trade on the brink? ( Memento of the original from February 10, 2012 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. Börse.ARD.de, February 7, 2012  
22. ^ World's Oldest Shipping Company Closes in Industry Slide . Bloomberg, August 9, 2012
23. ↑ UK's Oldest Shipowner Liquidated . In: The Journal of Commerce , August 9, 2012
24. ↑ Ship fund providers are trying new concepts . In: FAZ , November 18, 2009
25. ↑ Capital Link Shipping: Baltic Dry Index (historical data) ( Memento of the original from October 6, 2008 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. 
26. ↑ Capital Link Shipping: Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (historical data) ( Memento of the original from September 26, 2008 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. 
27. ↑ Capital Link Shipping: Baltic Clean Tanker Index (historical data) ( Memento of the original from January 6, 2011 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. 
28. ↑ Harper Petersen: HARPEX (historical data)
29. ↑ Korea Maritime Institute: Howe Robinson Container Index ( Memento of the original from May 22, 2012 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. 
30. ↑ ^{a b} Optima Shipbrokers: Weekly Reports ( Memento of the original from December 3, 2011 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was automatically inserted and not yet checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. 
31. ↑ ^{a b} Shipping Risk Manager: Dry Bulk Spot Rate Analytics  ( page no longer available , search in web archives )  Info: The link was automatically marked as defective. Please check the link according to the instructions and then remove this notice.  
32. ↑ ^{a b} J. P. Morgan Chase: Asia Pacific Dry Bulk Shipping ( Memento of the original dated November 19, 2009 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was automatically inserted and not yet checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. , dated November 5, 2008 
33. ↑ ^{a b} Moore Stephens: Ship operating costs seminar: Current and future trends ( Memento of the original from March 8, 2012 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link has been inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. , from October 19, 2011 
34. ↑ Closing status since 1985 on Commons
35. ↑ Copenhagen Business School: Historical Data 1985-2010
36. ↑ Korea Maritime Institute: Historical data from 2000 ( memento of the original from January 12, 2016 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. 
37. ↑ World Trade Organization: International trade statistics 2009 - Table A1b: World merchandise exports, production and gross domestic product, 1950-2008
38. ↑ World Trade Organization: International trade statistics 2012 - Chart 1: Volume of world merchandise exports and gross domestic product, 1950-2011