HARPEX
The HARPEX (Harper Petersen Charter Rates Index) is published by the ship broker Harper Petersen & Co in Hamburg and shows the global price development on the charter market for container ships .
concept
The HARPEX represents the container market for charter rates (rental price for a ship per day). The original index was created in 2004 by employees of Harper Petersen & Co. and Nordcapital -Holding in cooperation with economists, shipping experts and scientists from the Maritime Department of the Oldenburg University of Applied Sciences / Ostfriesland / Wilhelmshaven and calculated back to 1986 based on a data pool. In 2011 the index was revised and calculated back to 2001 on a monthly basis using the new calculation method.
Since 2011, a total of 7 ship classes in the area of feeder ships (700 TEU ) up to Panamax class (4,250 TEU) have been taken into account. The original HARPEX consisted of 8 ship classes until 2010 (750 TEU to 5,200 TEU). An overall index is created on the basis of the individual indices.
The speed as well as the minimum and maximum running time are included in the calculations. All deals concluded on the global time charter market within a week are taken into account. A weighting according to the number of ships and cost-covering charter rates takes place annually. Only the tonnage available on the shipping market is included in the index calculation. As a result, the larger ship classes are weighted more heavily and the charter market is presented more realistically.
The charter rates are determined exclusively from the information provided by ship brokers , ship owners and charterers . Only real demand and real supply for container ships are included in the price. In contrast to the economic data, the HARPEX data are not subject to any subsequent changes. Manipulation is not possible with the method of determining the index.
composition
The HARPEX is made up of 7 ship classes. The table shows the ship types and their loading capacity in TEU , their carrying capacity in dead weight tonnage (dwt) and their speed in knots (kn).
| index | Loading capacity in TEU |
Load capacity in dwt |
Loading harness | Speed in kn |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 1 | 700 | 8,400 | No | 17th |
| Class 2 | 1,100 | 14,000 | Yes | 19th |
| Class 3 | 1,700 | 22,000 | Yes | 19th |
| Class 4 | 2,500 | 34,000 | Yes | 22nd |
| Class 5 | 2,700 | 37,000 | No | 22nd |
| Class 6 | 3,500 | 42,000 | No | 22nd |
| Class 7 | 4,250 | 50,000 | No | 23 |
Business indicator
Since HARPEX determines the charter rates (ship rents) for container ships, it precisely measures the demand for container transports and thus the volume of world trade today. While the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) records the freight rates of raw materials, the preliminary stage of production, the HARPEX maps later stages of economic development when semi-finished or finished products have been made from the raw materials. The Baltic Dry Index is an early indicator of economic developments, while the HARPEX is an indicator of the current state of world trade and the world economy.
The BDI is heavily influenced by Chinese raw material imports and only reflects one aspect of the freight business. The HARPEX, on the other hand, measures the tonnage in a broader market segment, container transport. Here, it is not bulk goods such as coal and iron ore that are recorded, but consumer and industrial products. The HARPEX is closer to consumption and not early cycle like the BDI.
The greater the number of containers to be shipped, the greater the demand for container ships and the higher the charter price. An upward movement in HARPEX signals an increase in global trade, a downward movement the opposite. The HARPEX has a slightly positive correlation with the stock markets and a slightly negative correlation with the bond markets .
Over 90 percent of world trade, almost 95 percent of the European Union's foreign trade and almost 70 percent of German imports and exports are carried out by sea. The container ships covered by HARPEX have a 14 percent share of the shipping market.
Charter rates
All deals concluded on the global time charter market that meet a defined minimum speed (17 to 24 knots ) as well as a minimum term (3 months) and maximum term (48 months) are included in the calculation of HARPEX . Charter deals in connection with a new ship, sale-lease-back transactions or the exercise of options are not taken into account .
With a time charter, the shipowner (owner) makes the operational, loadable and manned ship available to the charterer for a defined period of time. In international practice, a charter rate (rent) is agreed and calculated in US dollars per day of use. The owner remains responsible for the technical condition of the ship and has to maintain the ship during the period. He can carry out the ship management himself or transfer it to a third party, the so-called contract shipowner .
If the ship cannot be used during the period of use, for example due to docking or a technical defect, the ship will be “off-hire”, which means that the charterer does not pay any charter for this period. With this type of charter, the risk of delays is on the part of the charterer.
history
Historical overview
HARPEX was published for the first time in 2004 and was calculated back to a base value of 800 points by January 4, 1986. Global economic growth in the late 1980s led to an increase in charter rates. After falling to 600 points in mid-1986, the index doubled to 1,200 points by 1989. Between 1989 and 1995 the HARPEX remained in a trading range of 1,000 to 1,300 points. On October 7, 1995, the index rose to a record high of 1,289 points.
During several economic crises between 1997 and 1999 ( Asian crisis , Russian crisis , Brazilian crisis ), the index lost value. On February 20, 1999 the HARPEX stood at 562 points, 56.4 percent lower than in October 1995. On September 2, 2000 the index closed at 1,132 points. During the 2001/2002 recession, the HARPEX sank again. On January 12, 2002 a value of 485 points was determined. This corresponds to a decrease of 57.2 percent compared to September 2000.
The increase in demand for transport services from Asia and the continued economic growth in the People's Republic of China and India caused the index to rise sharply over the next three years. On March 19, 2005, an all-time high of 2,183 points was achieved. Since January 2002 this corresponds to an increase of 350.1 percent.
The international financial crisis from 2007 onwards led to a global decrease in the demand for container transport. In December 2009 the percentage of unused container ships was 11.7 percent, the highest ever recorded. According to the ASX Alphaliner industry service, rates of around 10 percent of the global container fleet are historically high.
HARPEX began to fall two years before the financial crisis began. On October 4, 2008, at 957 points, it fell below the 1,000 point limit for the first time in 5 years. On February 7, 2009, with 489 points, it fell below the 500 point mark for the first time since 2002. On December 26, 2009, the index fell to an all-time low of 317 points. Since the all-time high of March 2005, the loss has been 85.5 percent. It is the biggest fall in the history of the HARPEX.
In 2010 there was a global economic upswing, supported by government stimulus programs and strong growth in Asia. The improvement in the general economic conditions led to an increase in charter rates for container transport. The index recovered from its low at the end of December 2009 and rose by 150.8 percent by October 2, 2010 to a value of 795 points. In January 2011, HARPEX was revised and calculated back to 2001 on a monthly basis using the new calculation method. On March 26, 2011, the index marked an annual high of 901 points.
The weakening of the global economy, the slowdown in economic activity in China and the worsening of the euro crisis led to a collapse in container transport. By December 15, 2012, the HARPEX had fallen by 60.9 percent to 352 points.
Ship indices in comparison
In addition to HARPEX, there are other indices that show the global development of charter rates for container ships. The HRCI ( Howe Robinson Container Index ) has been published once a week since 1997 by the shipping broker Howe Robinson & Co. Ltd. published in London . He looks at container ships in the range from 510 to 4,500 TEU. The Association Hamburger und Bremer Schiffsmakler e.V. calculates the ConTex (Container Ship Time Charter Assessment Index). V. (VHSS) twice a week since 2007. It is determined for ship types from 1,100 to 4,250 TEU.
Another index is the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI). It has been calculated by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange since 1998 and shows weekly the freight rates (export) of container transports that are shipped by export world champion China on standard routes around the world. The CCFI shows the development of the prices of container transports from 10 Chinese ports, including the port of Shanghai , the largest container port in the world.
When comparing the development of HARPEX, HRCI and ConTex, only minor differences can be found. They reacted to the oversupply of container ships since 2005 and the decline in transport services from 2007 onwards during the financial crisis. They have lost between 77 and 78 percent of their value since their highs. With a loss of 39 percent, the freight rates of the China Containerized Freight Index reacted less strongly to the crisis.
In the course of 2010, all shipping indices recovered from their lows during the global economic crisis. With the weakening of the economy, the indices fell to their lowest level since the end of 2009 / beginning of 2010 at the end of 2011. In 2012, only the freight rates in China recorded a price increase. On May 18, 2012, the CCFI marked an all-time high of 1,335.86 points. In contrast, the development of HARPEX, HRCI and ConTex remained weak.
The highs and lows of the indices during the financial crisis from 2007.
| index | High in points |
date | Low in points |
date | Change in% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HARPEX | 1,444.62 | Feb 16, 2008 | 317.44 | Dec 26, 2009 | −78.1 |
| ConTex | 1,022.00 | Feb 21, 2008 | 237.00 | Nov 17, 2009 | −76.8 |
| Howe Robinson Container Index | 1,406.20 | 26 Sep 2007 | 329.40 | Nov 25, 2009 | −76.6 |
| China Containerized Freight Index | 1,201.80 | Feb 15, 2008 | 763.31 | June 26, 2009 | −39.2 |
Annual development
The annual highs, lows and closing levels as well as the annual performance of HARPEX since 1995 are listed below. The information relates to the original time series up to December 18, 2010. On December 25, 2010, Harper Petersen & Co changed the method of calculating the weekly data to the new calculation method.
| year | Peak | Lowest point | Final stand | Change in% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | k. A. | k. A. | 977 | |
| 1995 | 1,289 | 1.107 | 1,229 | 25.8 |
| 1996 | 1,260 | 1,041 | 1,041 | −15.3 |
| 1997 | 1,126 | 948 | 964 | −7.4 |
| 1998 | 952 | 679 | 744 | −22.8 |
| 1999 | 877 | 562 | 769 | 3.4 |
| 2000 | 1,132 | 765 | 924 | 20.2 |
| 2001 | 989 | 515 | 515 | −44.3 |
| 2002 | 718 | 485 | 692 | 34.4 |
| 2003 | 1,212 | 686 | 1,091 | 57.7 |
| 2004 | 1.929 | 1,089 | 1.929 | 76.8 |
| 2005 | 2,183 | 1,279 | 1,279 | −33.7 |
| 2006 | 1,329 | 1,019 | 1,019 | −20.3 |
| 2007 | 1,444 | 1,029 | 1,341 | 31.6 |
| 2008 | 1,445 | 572 | 572 | −57.4 |
| 2009 | 572 | 317 | 317 | −44.6 |
| 2010 | 795 | 317 | 679 | 114.2 |
| 2011 | 901 | 389 | 389 | −42.7 |
| 2012¹ | 459 | 352 |
¹ December 31, 2012
Web links
Individual evidence
- ↑ a b Harper Petersen: Concept
- ↑ Finance and Economy: The world trades across the seas ( page no longer available , search in web archives ) Info: The link was automatically marked as defective. Please check the link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. , dated April 1, 2009
- ↑ Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung: Ship fund providers try new concepts , November 18, 2009
- ^ Chamber of Commerce and Industry North: Connected to the world - The national importance of the German seaports , February 25, 2009
- ^ Gunther Dütsch: Forward Freight Agreements (FFA) , presentation, Vattenfall Trading Services, June 2007
- ↑ Invest Media GmbH: Baltic Freight Index leads on the wrong track , presentation of December 21, 2009
- ↑ a b c Harper Petersen: HARPEX
- ↑ Asia Courier: China's ports conquer the world’s top ( page no longer available , search in web archives ) Info: The link was automatically marked as defective. Please check the link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. , dated February 1, 2011
- ↑ Panlv.Net: China & Shanghai Containerized Freight Index ( Memento of the original from January 20, 2016 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. ( MS Excel ; 12.1 MB)
- ↑ Korea Maritime Institute: Howe Robinson Container Index ( Memento of the original from May 22, 2012 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice.
- ^ Association of Hamburg ship brokers and shipping agents : ConTex
- ^ Shanghai Shipping Exchange: China Containerized Freight Index
