World Football Elo Ratings

World Football Elo Ratings ( dt. About "World Football Elo Ratings") is a ranking system for senior national teams in football . It is based on the Elo rating method , but has been modified to include various football-specific variables. These ratings are an alternative to the FIFA world rankings , the ranking system for national teams used by FIFA and much more widely used by the media, game commentators and official officials. Since August 2018, however, the FIFA world rankings have also been based on the Elo number, which is why only minor differences between the two rankings are to be expected in the long term. Differences also result from the different weighting of the competitions, among other things.

In theory, the system aims to quantitatively map the actual strength of a team (presupposed as existing and constant) relative to its competitors and to calculate an expected value for the outcome of each game.

However, since in practice football teams do not compete for years with the same line-up and skill level, it is only possible to draw conclusions from the current ranking points on the current skill level in the Elo system to a very limited extent.

The ranking takes into account all international senior national team games since 1872 for which results are available. However, with each new result of a team, the weight of the previous games decreases. As a result, only about the last 30 games are relevant for placement.

The World Football Elo Rating Table also takes into account teams that are not members of FIFA, such as B. Tibet or Greenland.

Current ranking

Number 1
in World Football Elo ratings

The ranking as of November 20, 2019, compiled using the website for the Elo ranking in football. The table shows the top twenty teams currently ranked. It also contains the best of the six continental associations ( bold ), all German-speaking countries and the last place in the ranking.

Elo place country Points confederacy FIFA rank 1  Belgium 2084 UEFA 1 2  Brazil 2082 CONMEBOL 3 3  France 2047 UEFA 2 4th  Spain 2028 UEFA 8th 5  Netherlands 2017 UEFA 12 6th  Portugal 1986 UEFA 6th 7th  Colombia 1985 CONMEBOL 10 8th  Italy 1969 UEFA 15th 9  Argentina 1967 CONMEBOL 9 10  Uruguay 1966 CONMEBOL 5 11  Germany 1965 UEFA 16 12  England 1956 UEFA 4th 13  Croatia 1921 UEFA 7th 14th  Mexico 1905 CONCACAF 11 15th  Switzerland 1898 UEFA 13 16  Denmark 1891 UEFA 14th 17th  Peru 1866 CONMEBOL 19th 18th  Sweden 1860 UEFA 18th 19th  Ukraine 1855 UEFA 22nd 20th  Venezuela 1830 CONMEBOL 26th ... 27  Senegal 1766 CAF 20th 28  South Korea 1752 AFC 39 ... 31  Austria 1741 UEFA 25th ... 85  New Zealand 1486 OFC 121 ... 123  Luxembourg 1339 UEFA 96 ... 174  Liechtenstein 1142 UEFA 181 ... 239  Palau 403 - -

Legend CONMEBOL (South America) UEFA (Europe) CONCACAF (North America) CAF (Africa) AFC (Asia) OFC (Oceania)

List of leaders of the Elo world rankings

The following is a list of the nations that have reached first place in the Elo world rankings since 2004:

from	country	Days
September 10, 2003	France	291
June 27, 2004	Czech Republic	4th
July 1, 2004	France	10
July 11, 2004	Brazil	3
July 14, 2004	France	35
August 18, 2004	Argentina	290
June 4, 2005	Czech Republic	4th
June 8, 2005	Argentina	21st
June 29, 2005	Brazil	102
October 9, 2005	Netherlands	3
October 12, 2005	Brazil	265
4th July 2006	Italy	43
August 16, 2006	France	52
October 7, 2006	Brazil	122
February 6, 2007	France	1
February 7, 2007	Brazil	140
June 27, 2007	France	14th
July 11, 2007	Argentina	4th
July 15, 2007	Brazil	334
June 13, 2008	Netherlands	8th
June 21, 2008	Spain	368
June 24, 2009	Brazil	373
July 2, 2010	Netherlands	5
July 7, 2010	Spain	1089
30th of June 2013	Brazil	45
August 14, 2013	Spain	59
October 12, 2013	Brazil	265
June 29, 2014	Netherlands	5
4th July 2014	Germany	0
4th July 2014	Brazil	4th
July 8, 2014	Germany	691
May 29, 2016	Argentina	165
November 10, 2016	Brazil	329
5th October 2017	Germany	36
November 10, 2017	Brazil	247
15th July 2018	France	88
October 11, 2018	Brazil	401
16th November 2019	Belgium	288

Top 10 since 1970

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Below is a list of the national teams with the highest average Elo rating since January 1, 1970.

rank	country	Elo rating on average
1	Brazil	2003.6
2	Germany	1972.4
3	Italy	1924.9
4th	England	1922.0
5	Netherlands	1908.5
6th	Argentina	1891.6
7th	France	1884.0
8th	Spain	1880.2
9	Russia	1859.5
10	Czech Republic	1844.7

1. ↑ updated February 1, 2007
2. ↑ including the score of the Federal Republic of Germany
3. ↑ including the score of the Soviet Union
4. ↑ including the score of Czechoslovakia

Germany achieved the historically highest value with 2223 points after defeating Argentina in the final of the 2014 World Cup. Hungary achieved the second highest value (2212 points) on November 27, 1955 after defeating Italy .

history

The system, developed by the Hungarian mathematician Árpád Élő , is used by the World Chess Federation to quantitatively describe the skill level of chess players. In 1997, Bob Runyan adopted the Elo rating system for international football and published the results on the Internet. He was also the first to run the soccer world Elo Ranking website.

Overview

The Elo system was adapted for football by including the occasion of the game, an adjustment for the home game advantage and the goal difference in the final result.

The factors to consider when calculating a new Elo score for a team are:

• the old score of the team itself,
• the opponent's old score,
• if applicable, the home rights of the team or the opponent,
• the goal difference of the game result,
• the importance of the tournament or occasion.

The different meanings of competitions in descending order are:

• World Championship finals ,
• Final round matches of continental championships and Confederate Cup matches ,
• Qualifying matches for world and continental championships,
• all other tournaments and
• Friendly matches.

Calculation bases

The calculations are based on the following formulas:

${\displaystyle R_{neu}=R_{alt}+P}$

in which

${\displaystyle P=KG(W-W_{e})}$

${\displaystyle R_{neu}}$	= The team's new score
${\displaystyle R_{alt}}$	= The team's old score
${\displaystyle P}$	= Change in score
${\displaystyle K}$	= Weighting of the game
${\displaystyle G}$	= A number for the goal difference
${\displaystyle W}$	= The result in the form 0 for a loss, 0.5 for a draw and 1 for a win
${\displaystyle W_{e}}$	= The expected result

Weighting of the game

The weighting of the game is represented by the constant K, depending on the importance of the game or tournament in which it takes place.

Type of game or tournament	Index (K)
World championships	60
Continental championships and major international tournaments (e.g. Confederation Cup)	50
Qualifying games for world and continental championships and major tournaments	40
All other tournaments	30th
Friendly matches	20th

Goal difference

The goal difference is taken into account by the number G. G is equal to 1 if the goal difference is 0 or 1 and is increased if the goal difference is larger by the respective calculation shown below:

In the event of a goal difference of one goal or a tie

${\displaystyle G=1}$

If there is a goal difference of two goals

${\displaystyle G=1,5}$

In the event of a goal difference of three or more goals

• Where N is the goal difference

${\displaystyle G={\frac {11+N}{8}}}$

Example table:

Goal difference	Coefficient G
0	1
+1	1
+2	1.5
+3	1.75
+4	1,875
+5	2
+6	2.125
+7	2.25
+8	2,375
+9	2.5
+10	2.625

Result

${\displaystyle W}$ shows the actual result of the game: 1 for a win, 0.5 for a draw, 0 for a defeat.

Expected result

W _e is the expected result from the following formula:

${\displaystyle W_{e}={\frac {1}{10^{-dr/400}+1}}}$

It is always greater than 0 and less than 1. The borderline cases 0 correspond to a defeat that is expected to be certain, and 1 to a victory that is expected to be certain.

dr is the distance between points (positive or negative) in the evaluation of the opposing team compared to the team to be evaluated. If necessary, the team with home advantage will be rated 100 points higher than it is in the actual rating. If dr = 0, then this means that both teams are considered to be equally strong (taking home advantage into account). Accordingly, an expected result W _e = 0.5 then results . This in turn means that a win, a draw or a loss is considered possible, but that the probability of a victory is exactly the same as the probability of a loss.

Example calculation: Before the final of the European Football Championship in 2012 , Spain had 194 Elo points more than Italy. An expected result of for Spain (and accordingly for Italy) was calculated from this . ${\displaystyle \textstyle W_{e}={\frac {1}{10^{-194/400}+1}}\approx 0{,}753}$ ${\displaystyle \textstyle W_{e}={\frac {1}{10^{194/400}+1}}\approx 0{,}247}$

Example table:

Point spacing dr	W e better men.	W e worse men.
0	0.5	0.5
25th	0.536	0.464
50	0.571	0.429
75	0.601	0.399
100	0.640	0.360
125	0.673	0.327
150	0.703	0.297
200	0.760	0.240
250	0.808	0.192
300	0.849	0.151
400	0.909	0.091
500	0.947	0.053
750	0.987	0.013
1000	0.997	0.003

Web links

• Website of the Elo ranking in football
• The current changes to the Elo ranking in football
• world-results.net - the main source of results used in the calculation
• Explanation of the calculation