World Football Elo Ratings
World Football Elo Ratings ( dt. About "World Football Elo Ratings") is a ranking system for senior national teams in football . It is based on the Elo rating method , but has been modified to include various football-specific variables. These ratings are an alternative to the FIFA world rankings , the ranking system for national teams used by FIFA and much more widely used by the media, game commentators and official officials. Since August 2018, however, the FIFA world rankings have also been based on the Elo number, which is why only minor differences between the two rankings are to be expected in the long term. Differences also result from the different weighting of the competitions, among other things.
In theory, the system aims to quantitatively map the actual strength of a team (presupposed as existing and constant) relative to its competitors and to calculate an expected value for the outcome of each game.
However, since in practice football teams do not compete for years with the same line-up and skill level, it is only possible to draw conclusions from the current ranking points on the current skill level in the Elo system to a very limited extent.
The ranking takes into account all international senior national team games since 1872 for which results are available. However, with each new result of a team, the weight of the previous games decreases. As a result, only about the last 30 games are relevant for placement.
The World Football Elo Rating Table also takes into account teams that are not members of FIFA, such as B. Tibet or Greenland.
Current ranking
in World Football Elo ratings
The ranking as of November 20, 2019, compiled using the website for the Elo ranking in football. The table shows the top twenty teams currently ranked. It also contains the best of the six continental associations ( bold ), all German-speaking countries and the last place in the ranking.
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List of leaders of the Elo world rankings
The following is a list of the nations that have reached first place in the Elo world rankings since 2004:
from | country | Days |
---|---|---|
September 10, 2003 | France | 291 |
June 27, 2004 | Czech Republic | 4th |
July 1, 2004 | France | 10 |
July 11, 2004 | Brazil | 3 |
July 14, 2004 | France | 35 |
August 18, 2004 | Argentina | 290 |
June 4, 2005 | Czech Republic | 4th |
June 8, 2005 | Argentina | 21st |
June 29, 2005 | Brazil | 102 |
October 9, 2005 | Netherlands | 3 |
October 12, 2005 | Brazil | 265 |
4th July 2006 | Italy | 43 |
August 16, 2006 | France | 52 |
October 7, 2006 | Brazil | 122 |
February 6, 2007 | France | 1 |
February 7, 2007 | Brazil | 140 |
June 27, 2007 | France | 14th |
July 11, 2007 | Argentina | 4th |
July 15, 2007 | Brazil | 334 |
June 13, 2008 | Netherlands | 8th |
June 21, 2008 | Spain | 368 |
June 24, 2009 | Brazil | 373 |
July 2, 2010 | Netherlands | 5 |
July 7, 2010 | Spain | 1089 |
30th of June 2013 | Brazil | 45 |
August 14, 2013 | Spain | 59 |
October 12, 2013 | Brazil | 265 |
June 29, 2014 | Netherlands | 5 |
4th July 2014 | Germany | 0 |
4th July 2014 | Brazil | 4th |
July 8, 2014 | Germany | 691 |
May 29, 2016 | Argentina | 165 |
November 10, 2016 | Brazil | 329 |
5th October 2017 | Germany | 36 |
November 10, 2017 | Brazil | 247 |
15th July 2018 | France | 88 |
October 11, 2018 | Brazil | 401 |
16th November 2019 | Belgium | 288 |
Top 10 since 1970
Below is a list of the national teams with the highest average Elo rating since January 1, 1970.
rank | country | Elo rating on average |
---|---|---|
1 | Brazil | 2003.6 |
2 | Germany | 1972.4 |
3 | Italy | 1924.9 |
4th | England | 1922.0 |
5 | Netherlands | 1908.5 |
6th | Argentina | 1891.6 |
7th | France | 1884.0 |
8th | Spain | 1880.2 |
9 | Russia | 1859.5 |
10 | Czech Republic | 1844.7 |
- ↑ updated February 1, 2007
- ↑ including the score of the Federal Republic of Germany
- ↑ including the score of the Soviet Union
- ↑ including the score of Czechoslovakia
Germany achieved the historically highest value with 2223 points after defeating Argentina in the final of the 2014 World Cup. Hungary achieved the second highest value (2212 points) on November 27, 1955 after defeating Italy .
history
The system, developed by the Hungarian mathematician Árpád Élő , is used by the World Chess Federation to quantitatively describe the skill level of chess players. In 1997, Bob Runyan adopted the Elo rating system for international football and published the results on the Internet. He was also the first to run the soccer world Elo Ranking website.
Overview
The Elo system was adapted for football by including the occasion of the game, an adjustment for the home game advantage and the goal difference in the final result.
The factors to consider when calculating a new Elo score for a team are:
- the old score of the team itself,
- the opponent's old score,
- if applicable, the home rights of the team or the opponent,
- the goal difference of the game result,
- the importance of the tournament or occasion.
The different meanings of competitions in descending order are:
- World Championship finals ,
- Final round matches of continental championships and Confederate Cup matches ,
- Qualifying matches for world and continental championships,
- all other tournaments and
- Friendly matches.
Calculation bases
The calculations are based on the following formulas:
in which
= The team's new score | |
= The team's old score | |
= Change in score | |
= Weighting of the game | |
= A number for the goal difference | |
= The result in the form 0 for a loss, 0.5 for a draw and 1 for a win | |
= The expected result |
Weighting of the game
The weighting of the game is represented by the constant K, depending on the importance of the game or tournament in which it takes place.
Type of game or tournament | Index (K) |
---|---|
World championships | 60 |
Continental championships and major international tournaments (e.g. Confederation Cup) | 50 |
Qualifying games for world and continental championships and major tournaments | 40 |
All other tournaments | 30th |
Friendly matches | 20th |
Goal difference
The goal difference is taken into account by the number G. G is equal to 1 if the goal difference is 0 or 1 and is increased if the goal difference is larger by the respective calculation shown below:
In the event of a goal difference of one goal or a tie
If there is a goal difference of two goals
In the event of a goal difference of three or more goals
- Where N is the goal difference
Example table:
Goal difference | Coefficient G |
---|---|
0 | 1 |
+1 | 1 |
+2 | 1.5 |
+3 | 1.75 |
+4 | 1,875 |
+5 | 2 |
+6 | 2.125 |
+7 | 2.25 |
+8 | 2,375 |
+9 | 2.5 |
+10 | 2.625 |
Result
shows the actual result of the game: 1 for a win, 0.5 for a draw, 0 for a defeat.
Expected result
W e is the expected result from the following formula:
It is always greater than 0 and less than 1. The borderline cases 0 correspond to a defeat that is expected to be certain, and 1 to a victory that is expected to be certain.
dr is the distance between points (positive or negative) in the evaluation of the opposing team compared to the team to be evaluated. If necessary, the team with home advantage will be rated 100 points higher than it is in the actual rating. If dr = 0, then this means that both teams are considered to be equally strong (taking home advantage into account). Accordingly, an expected result W e = 0.5 then results . This in turn means that a win, a draw or a loss is considered possible, but that the probability of a victory is exactly the same as the probability of a loss.
Example calculation: Before the final of the European Football Championship in 2012 , Spain had 194 Elo points more than Italy. An expected result of for Spain (and accordingly for Italy) was calculated from this .
Example table:
Point spacing dr | W e better men. | W e worse men. |
---|---|---|
0 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
25th | 0.536 | 0.464 |
50 | 0.571 | 0.429 |
75 | 0.601 | 0.399 |
100 | 0.640 | 0.360 |
125 | 0.673 | 0.327 |
150 | 0.703 | 0.297 |
200 | 0.760 | 0.240 |
250 | 0.808 | 0.192 |
300 | 0.849 | 0.151 |
400 | 0.909 | 0.091 |
500 | 0.947 | 0.053 |
750 | 0.987 | 0.013 |
1000 | 0.997 | 0.003 |