The physics of the future

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The physics of the future. Our life in 100 years is a popular scientific non-fiction book by the US physicist Michio Kaku , which was published in 2011 in English and 2012 in German.

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Summary

In his work, Kaku describes his prognosis about the technological and economic progress of mankind up to the year 2100, dividing the development into the time periods today to 2030 , 2030 to 2070 and 2070 to 2100 . The areas of computer technology , artificial intelligence , medicine , nanotechnology , energy , space travel and economics are described.

In the foreword, Kaku explains his approach to making his forecasts. He makes it clear that a great many futurologists have made mistakes in the past, while others are surprisingly correct. For example Leonardo da Vinci or Jules Verne . In order to be able to make a realistic estimate of the future, four conditions are set up, which are taken into account in the book:

  • All inventions described are compatible with the current state of science and the physical laws of nature .
  • Interviews with 300 leading scientists were collected and their assessments adopted.
  • There is already a prototype for every invention described.
  • The so-called "caveman principle" is assumed. Kaku's thesis is that humans do not differ anatomically or in terms of their personality from humans who lived 100,000 years ago. When in doubt, man's primitive desires would win. For example, most people would rather have something "in hand" (one reason why the paperless office never became a reality) and prefer contact with real people.

Forecasts (selection)

until 2030:

  • Computer-aided glasses such as Google Glass and contact lenses as a corresponding further development are standard, as are autonomous vehicles .
  • The walls in the apartment are (partially) digitized and will replace the classic television .
  • Flexible organic electronics are ubiquitous, virtual worlds become a matter of course thanks to head-mounted displays .
  • The normal course to the general practitioner is supplemented by computer programs that can be called up from home at any time. These programs should know the entire state of medical science (e.g. by feeding in all current specialist literature) and work on the basis of probability calculations . MRI machines should be as small as today's smartphones and enable self-examination. The bathroom should be equipped with cancer sensors so that there is constant examination and early detection. Kaku predicts that a modern bathroom will have more sensors than today's hospital. DNA chips should check the state of health ( blood pressure , cholesterol levels , heart rate ) at any time and nanobots should be used to combat many diseases. Organs are to be grown through stem cell therapy and DNA sequencing is to become affordable for everyone.
  • Kaku does not expect the development of intelligent robots at this point in time, but there should be many specialized expert systems.
  • The massive drop in prices for renewable energies should make them more important, and the electric car will become financially lucrative. One problem is the further spread of nuclear weapons .
  • With regard to space research, progress should remain modest, and manned space travel will be viewed by governments as uneconomical. However, there will be progress with regard to unmanned space probes and the first steps towards a permanent lunar base .

2030 to 2070:

  • The Moore's Law loses its validity. The computing power of computers will continue to increase, but no longer exponentially.
  • A universal translator for the translation of all languages ​​in real time - which are transferred to computer-aided contact lenses - should be technically mature. In addition, these contact lenses should merge the virtual world with the normal one. Even holograms are possible.
  • Robots are becoming more intelligent and can take on more and more human tasks, for example as surgeons in medicine and as cooks in private households .
  • The human brain should be fully understood and reproduced as a supercomputer . In addition, "designer babies" are created, which have been freed from hereditary diseases and have selected physical and personal characteristics.
  • The global warming is the big problem of the 21st century, all states could disappear, governments should not take decisive countermeasures.
  • A manned Mars mission takes place. In addition, private space missions should make space tourism financially affordable.
  • In the area of ​​the economic system, automation will result in the loss of many jobs, such as agents, brokers or accountants, as these can be replaced by robots. In contrast, creative jobs, especially in the entertainment industry , will boom. Workplaces of police officers, craftsmen or cleaning workers are not at risk, as these tasks are still too complex for robots.

2070 to 2100:

  • The brain-computer interface becomes possible, as well as mind reading with the help of advanced EEG and MRT devices. This should also make it possible to record dreams .
  • Machines should become aware of themselves ( technological singularity ) and partially merge with people (e.g. through replacement of organs or lost limbs or through implanted chips). In addition, people should be able to move as avatars .
  • In the field of medicine, nanotechnology , gene therapy and robotics should be so advanced that the aging process can be reversed and thus theoretically biological immortality can be achieved. The cure for all diseases is not possible, however, because viruses , for example, change too quickly. Kaku denies the problem of overpopulation , as he predicts a massive collapse in birth rates.
  • The cloning of certain extinct animals (such as mammoths ) is possible, as well as the creation of new forms of life by combining existing animal species. However, the creation of dinosaurs is very unlikely due to the lack of appropriate DNA material.
  • The age of electrical engineering is entering a new era of magnetism . Vehicles and trains, for example, should run exclusively on magnetism and thus save a lot of energy.
  • With the assembler , capitalism reaches its limits, since any product can be created cheaply. Increasing individualization and the transformation to an information, science and entertainment society should be able to compensate for this to a certain extent.
  • A space elevator should make an excursion into space possible for everyone, and a permanent outpost should be built on Mars , which will previously be made more habitable by artificial global warming. Settlements of people outside the earth are only very limited and realistic as smaller research stations.
  • According to Kaku, nation states should not disappear, but should lose their importance in favor of international organizations and larger alliances such as the European Union . In addition, it can already be seen today that a planetary civilization is forming. He justifies this with the Internet as a global communication system, the emergence of world languages in the form of English and Chinese, the emergence of a planetary economy, a planetary middle class, a planetary (pop) culture, with planetary sporting events ( Olympics , World Cup ), an increase in tourism and the strengthening of international organizations, particularly in the field of environmental and health protection.

Reviews (selection)

“The author and scientist shows us different paths into the future that, for a change, do not have to lead humanity into disaster. [...] Kaku is not just a scientist. He is also a tricky non-fiction author. He's got some pretty good prospects for us, and that's selling pretty well. For many contemporaries, a spoon or two of optimism may be too much. But in his book The Physics of the Future he collects a few very good reasons for his confident attitude. "

- The world

“Kaku's book immerses the reader in a world that is shown to us in several science fiction films, sometimes in theatrical images. The thought that a lot of Hollywood productions from 30 years ago is a reality today does not let go of you. While reading, however, you can just drift into Kaku's world of thoughts without necessarily having to evaluate his thoughts. It is precisely his daring theses and the most bizarre views that anchor themselves in the reader's mind. "

- spectrum of science

“Even if not every reader will be wholeheartedly enthusiastic about the ideas in physics of the future , Michio Kaku is eloquent and eloquent. You should sit back and enjoy the thoughts of the physics professor - and you can ask yourself whether, based on his prophecies, he will assume the rank of Jules Verne in 100 years. It's a shame that we won't find out at least that. "

- Deutschlandfunk

“That sounds intoxicating, but also like hubris and fantasy. However, this appearance is deceptive. The exciting thing about Michio Kaku's vision is that in addition to the courage to think the unthinkable, he also shows how it can work. In his book, the physicist assumes that the coming decades will be determined by scientific findings and new technologies. Since the foundations of modern physics, chemistry or biology have already been laid, he can, if he asks scientists of our time, make accurate predictions about the future. Following the example of Jules Verne and Leonardo da Vinci, Michio Kaku therefore interviewed over 300 researchers about technologies that could come to maturity in the next hundred years. "

- Germany radio

“It's not a prophecy that Michio Kaku is offering, but an invitation to critical reflection. What scientists should and shouldn't do, and how society can react to the challenges posed by the technically possible, Kaku urges his readers, must be discussed in public in a well-founded manner. "

- image of science

expenditure

  • Physics of the Future. How Science Will Shape Human Destiny and our Daily Lives , Penguin, London 2011 ISBN 978-0-141-93139-5 .

Web links

Individual evidence

  1. Jump up ↑ The World: The Future of Mankind Will Be Fantastic , Jan. 7, 2013
  2. ↑ Spectrum of Science: Photographing a Dream , June 6, 2013
  3. ↑ Deutschlandfunk: The Physics of the Future , October 14, 2012
  4. ↑ Deutschlandradio Kultur: Web surfing with contact lenses , from November 11, 2012
  5. ↑ The physics of the future. On: Wissenschaft.de from April 16, 2013.