October Surprise
As October Surprise ( German October surprise ) is in the American policy immediately before an election, a surprising turn of events - most presidential elections called, which can contribute significantly to influence the election -. The term October is based on the period immediately before the elections, which in the United States always take place in early November. In the past, events presented as October Surprise had an impact on the survey results. It is controversial whether the events actually changed the outcome of an election.
The political slogan is mostly related to the elections for the President mentioned, but can also refer to elections to Congress and gubernatorial elections in the states relate, as all these elections are held in November.
Origin of the term
The term came into use shortly after the 1972 presidential election between Republican incumbent Richard Nixon and Democrat George McGovern , when the United States was in the fourth year of peace negotiations in the Vietnam War . On October 26, 1972, twelve days before Election Day, American Nixon government negotiator Henry Kissinger appeared before the White House press and announced, "Peace is within our grasp." President Nixon, who took office At the beginning of 1969 he had promised to end the now unpopular war quickly and honorably, although the troop strength had been reduced substantially in the course of his tenure, the fighting was extended to the neighboring countries of Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia , and heavy air strikes were carried out. This resulted in numerous anti-war demonstrations, which forced Nixon and his government to conclude peace. After Kissinger's declaration "Peace is at hand" it was generally assumed that this assessment greatly increased his chances of successful re-election and that the population could be made credible that it was not advisable to vote out the current government in the interests of peacebuilding. Nixon was able to post a landslide victory in the election. The formal peace agreement took place on January 27, 1973 - seven days after Nixon's second inauguration - after another violent air raid took place in December 1972. In March 1973 the last US troops had withdrawn from Vietnam, in 1975 all fighting was over.
Since this choice of term was October Surprise used by political supporters of one side in various US election campaigns strategically just before the election launched to expose the other side effective public information as such and to discredit .
Well-known examples
1968 presidential election
In the 1968 presidential election , incumbent Democratic Vice President Hubert H. Humphrey and Republican Richard Nixon faced each other. The main theme of the campaign was the Vietnam War , which has since been rejected by parts of the US population. Because of this, and the fact that the war was unfavorable for the United States, the government of President Lyndon B. Johnson , who did not run again, began peace negotiations in the spring of 1968. The general public believed that the election result would depend on whether the Johnson administration succeeded in signing a peace agreement with North Vietnam by election day . In order to give the negotiations new impetus and to support Humphrey, who was behind the polls, President Johnson announced in October 1968 that the air strikes in Vietnam, which had been partially suspended since March of that year, would be completely suspended. This decision resulted in Humphrey catching up in the opinion polls. There was no peace agreement, Nixon's campaign team had also secretly sabotaged the talks in order to postpone a peace agreement. Nixon then won the election by 0.7 percentage points in the popular vote .
1980 presidential election
One of the hot topics of the 1980 presidential election between incumbent Jimmy Carter and his Republican challenger Ronald Reagan was that American diplomats had been held hostage in Tehran for more than a year . Despite diplomatic negotiations, Carter did not succeed in obtaining a release because he refused the arms delivery requested by the hostage-takers. Due to the remarkable coincidence of the outcome of the presidential election - Reagan won with a clear majority - with the end of the hostage situation, suspicions of the influence of the Reagan camp quickly arose. On the day of Reagan's inauguration , just 20 minutes after the end of his inaugural speech , the Iranian government announced the release of the hostages. Various circumstantial evidence indicated that Reagan and his team were meeting in secret with representatives of Tehran in order to delay the previously decided hostage release. This was to prevent Carter from chalking up the end of the hostage-taking as a political victory and winning votes - the so-called October Surprise would have occurred. Ultimate evidence of Reagan's influence, however, could never be produced. There are also observers of the time who argue that Carter's defeat was due to a domestic political crisis, above all the stagnating economy, and that if the hostages were released by his government, the outcome would hardly have changed.
2000 presidential election
At the end of October 2000, shortly before the presidential election in which Al Gore and George W. Bush faced each other, it was announced that Bush had been temporarily imprisoned in 1976 for being drunk. It was believed that this publication could massively harm Bush during the election campaign. Bush won the election, but received fewer votes in the population than his opponent Gore: In the decisive electoral body he was able to achieve a narrow majority due to the electoral system and was thus declared the winner of the election. Bush admitted his imprisonment before the election.
2012 presidential election
In many US media was before 2012 presidential election of Hurricane Sandy as October Surprise scored. This hit the east coast of the United States at the end of October and claimed numerous lives. In the metropolis of New York City , too , numerous property damage and flooded subway tunnels were reported. In contrast to his challenger Mitt Romney , US President Barack Obama managed to distinguish himself as a crisis manager, also through his position as incumbent. His crisis management was also attended by Republican politicians such as the Governor of New Jersey , Chris Christie , a positive assessment, although that Romney had supported the election campaign. New York City's non-party mayor Michael Bloomberg also gave an election recommendation for the president: The storm was favored by climate change , which Obama is more resolute against than the Republican candidate Romney. Obama was able to win the election on November 6th quite clearly, but US polls showed that the storm was not a decisive event for many citizens. Many respondents indicated that they had already decided who to vote for before October.
2016 presidential election
On October 28, 2016 less than two weeks before the presidential election on November 8, which was director of the FBI James Comey in a letter to Congressman known again in the so-called e-mail scandal against the Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton to determine . During her time as Secretary of State from 2009 to 2013, Clinton had sent official e-mails with sensitive content via a private server instead of the more secure server of the State Department , thereby violating security requirements. The investigation into this case was closed in the summer. At that time, FBI chief Comey had accused the presidential candidate of grossly negligent and non-criminal behavior. Therefore, he recommended that the Justice Department not bring charges.
The resumption of the investigation has been described in many media as a turning point in the election campaign. Republican candidate Donald Trump used the allegations to re- label his challenger as corrupt . In the days that followed, Trump recorded gains in polls. While numerous media had almost written off Trump's chances the week before, the Republicans declared an election victory possible again and spoke of an October Surprise . Comey, himself a Republican, faced severe criticism from Democratic politicians. Senators like Harry Reid said the FBI director may have violated the Hatch Act , which obliges civil servants to remain neutral in political elections.
Individual evidence
- ↑ Definition (English)
- ↑ Richard Nixon - Abysses of a President; Part 2
- ↑ Tied up like Gulliver. Shady intelligence operations strain US relations with Israel . In: Der Spiegel . No. 16 , 1991 ( online ).
- ↑ Everyone is terrified . In: Der Spiegel . No. 33 , 1991 ( online ). Quote: “Did Ronald Reagan's helpers in 1980 make an agreement with the Iranians that the US hostages would only be released after the presidential election? Was Jimmy Carter the victim of a plot? New evidence could condense into a scandal that threatens Republican rule over the White House. "
- ^ Gary Sick: October Surprise: America's Hostages in Iran and the Election of Ronald Reagan .
- ↑ Martin Kilian: The hostage deal that remained a rumor. Iran's mullahs are said to have brought Ronald Reagan to power in 1980 to get weapons. A TA journalist recalls chasing the sensational story for five years. In: Tages-Anzeiger , updated on June 26, 2009.
- ^ The Election Story of the Decade . In: The New York Times
- ↑ Fallout From A Midnight Ride . In: Time Magazine , November 13, 2000. Retrieved September 1, 2008.
- ^ Hurricane Sandy Is a Nasty October Surprise for Mitt Romney . The Daily Beast
- ↑ Hurricane Sandy: Election 2012's October surprise? CBS News
- ↑ Time of the voting decision (graphic) Tagesschau.de
- ↑ Significance of the hurricane (graphic) Tagesschau.de
- ↑ Listing of the results of all national surveys , Huffington Post, November 3, 2016, updated several times a day.
- ↑ Current results of seven national and three regional surveys , CNN, November 1, 2016 (English)
- ↑ Clinton vs. Trump: Decision Week , Der Spiegel , October 31, 2016
- ↑ James Comey's October Surprise , NewYorker, October 28, 2016 (English)
- ↑ Mr. Comey's dangerous October Surprise , Washington Post, November 1, 2016 (English)