The Next 100 Years

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The Next 100 Years (German title: The next 100 years ) is a geopolitical study by George Friedman from 2009. Friedman predicts the most important geopolitical events and developments of the 21st century. It also looks at possible changes in technology and culture during this period. The book was on the New York Times TOP 5 bestseller list .

Overview of the content

From 2009 onwards, Friedman sees the USA as the dominant world power in the 21st century as well, whose primacy is repeatedly challenged by competitors. The motto of the book is a quote from Hegel : "Whoever looks at the world sensibly, also looks at it sensibly".

Second cold war

In the second decade of the 21st century, which Friedmann looks forward to from 2009, the war on terror will ebb away. A "second cold war" between Russia and the US will arise, albeit less extensive and much shorter than the first. Russia will try to expand its sphere of interest into the CEEC and to develop its military potential. At this stage, Russia will pose a regional threat to the US. The US will ally itself closely with a number of Central and Eastern European countries, all of which will be dedicated to the goal of withstanding the geopolitical threat posed by Russia. Friedman sees the USA as a close partner of Poland , the Czech Republic , Slovakia , Hungary and Romania at this time . Around 2015, under the leadership of Poland, an alliance of Eastern European countries will be formed, the "Polish Bloc".

Fragmentation of Russia and China

At the beginning of the 3rd decade, the Cold War will end with Russia's weakening resilience. Economic strains and political pressure, together with the shrinking population and poor infrastructure, will lead to the total collapse of the government of the Russian Federation , similar to the previous collapse of the Soviet Union . Other post-Soviet states will also disintegrate.

Friedman foresees a similar fate for mainland China. The growth since 1980 has led to increasing inequality and tensions in society, especially between the affluent coastal regions and the impoverished central areas. In a first scenario, Friedman foresees isolation from foreign interests and an authoritarian safeguarding of rule; in a second scenario, fragmentation, in which the central government loses power over the provinces. In 2009, Friedman thought this second scenario was even more likely.

The collapse of Russia and the disintegration of China will throw Eurasia into general chaos. Other powers will push into the power vacuum to enforce their interests or regional forces will enforce secessions. Parts of Russia such as Chechnya and other Islamic regions as well as the Pacific Far East will become independent, Finland will annex Karelia , Romania Moldova , Tibet will become independent with the help of India, Taiwan (ROC) will expand its influence on the mainland, while the US , Europe and Japan will restore their regional spheres of influence in China.

Emergence of new powers

Friedman foresees the formation of three new great powers between 2020 and 2040: Turkey , Poland and Japan . With initial US support, Turkey will become a regional power , much like it did during the Ottoman Empire . Your sphere of influence will extend into the Arab world , which by then will have largely disintegrated, into Russia in the north and through other former Soviet republics inhabited by Turkic peoples. Only Israel will be able to maintain its independence from Turkey. However, given Turkey's military strength, it will seek an understanding with Turkey.

At the same time, Japan will expand its influence: to China, the Russian Far East and many Pacific islands. It will become more aggressive and armament so that it will be a projection of power across East Asia .

Poland and its allies will form a great power as they did in Poland-Lithuania . Poland will expand its economic influence into the European part of Russia and argue with Turkey over influence in the Volga region.

During this period, military programs for space will emerge, with Japan and Poland increasingly developing space weapons.

Growing tension

The US alliance with Turkey and Japan will become increasingly weaker by 2020. With the establishment of spheres of interest, Turkey and Japan become a threat to American interests, especially through their sea power and their space weapons.

With their identical interests, Japan and Turkey will form an alliance against the US. Germany and Mexico could join this coalition, even if this seems unlikely. The US will ally itself with the "Polish Bloc", possibly with a recovered China, India, a united Korea and the United Kingdom. Tensions between the two spheres of power will prevail by 2040.

Demographic change

The shrinking population in developed countries, especially Europe, will bring about dramatic cultural, social and political changes. By 2040, Western countries will be vying for immigrants. The USA in particular will facilitate immigration and will begin to encourage foreigners, especially Mexicans, to emigrate to the USA.

With the automation of production through the use of robots, unemployment will spread and immigration will be limited again.

Third world war

A third world war will take place around the year 2050 . The US, the Polish bloc, Great Britain, India and China will face Turkey and Japan, which Germany and France will later join.

Friedman speculates about a surprise attack from an ambush on Thanksgiving day 2050.

The first blow will weaken the forces of the United States and its allies and lead to the Alliance being recognized as an equal superpower. In order to prevent hegemony over Eurasia, the US will continue the war and finally end it victoriously.

The main weapons in this three-year war will be hypersonic planes and exoskeleton soldiers. Rule of the universe will determine the course of the war, with weapon systems and military bases on the moon playing a decisive role. As a limited war, this war will be very different from the total war of the 20th century, as all powers will have nuclear weapons. Precision guided ammunition will minimize collateral damage. Friedman therefore reckons with around 50,000 victims.

post war period

A boom will continue into the 1960s. The reasons for the boom are increased defense spending and the development of new technologies. The economic situation will also ease with the death of the last of the baby boomers .

The dominance of the USA will continue, also in space. Turkey will largely retain its sphere of influence, Japan will lose its. A peace treaty will try to limit both of their military capabilities.

Poland's power will grow significantly and arouse US suspicion. The USA will ally itself with Turkey and Great Britain in order to prevent a European dominance of Poland. The US will limit and control the access of new powers to space to protect its supremacy.

US-Mexican conflict

After a period of US domination, tensions between the US and Mexico will rise after 2070. The south of the USA in particular will be Mexicanized at this time, a large part of the population will refuse to assimilate to the culture of the USA and to show loyalty to the US government because of the prevailing Mexican culture and the proximity to Mexico. At the end of the 21st century, Mexico will be able to challenge US hegemony in North America economically, politically and militarily.

This crisis cannot be overcome militarily. Most of the world, tired of US supremacy, will secretly hope for a victory for Mexico, especially Poland and Brazil. The conflict will continue into the next century.

Technological forecasts

Speculation focuses on the development of aircraft, guided missiles, space technology and infantry equipment with armor and robotic support. The earth's energy supply will mainly be solar. People's life expectancy will increase considerably. Nuclear weapons will be widespread around the world due to the general availability of the technology.

Revision of the predictions

In 2015, the private consulting firm Stratfor published a forecast for the decade between 2015 and 2025. A collapse of Russia is now considered unlikely. Rather, one reckons with a split into semi-autonomous regions. For China, this study considers the authoritarian development to be more likely, contrary to the original disintegration prognosis.

Individual forecasts

  • Renewed armed conflicts in the countries of the former Yugoslavia are likely.
  • The Turkey is in the Near and Middle East trying to reach a dominant position as in the days of the Ottoman Empire .
  • In the Pacific region, China and Japan will arm in order to no longer let the USA control their sea routes.
    • However, due to internal conflicts, China could break up into its provinces before 2020.
  • In Eurasia and especially Central Asia , Russia will try to expand its sphere of influence.
    • However, shortly after 2020 the Russian military will collapse.
  • There will be a conflict between Russia and Turkey in the Caucasus.
  • At some point the political border between the USA and Mexico could no longer be maintained because more and more Mexicans will live in the southwest.
  • After the collapse of Russia and China around 2020, Eurasia will become “a paradise for looters”.
    • Eastern European countries (especially Poland) could expand to the east.
    • India will support the liberation of Tibet .
    • Japan and Taiwan will establish regional spheres of influence in China.
    • Turkey will take over the political leadership in the Near and Middle East, which the US perceives as a threat to its existential interests.
  • Around 2040, the US is trying to stabilize China in order to reduce Japanese influence.
  • At about the same time, the USA got into a conflict with Turkey.
  • Turkey will also get into a conflict with Poland, which wants to gain access to the Mediterranean and has been armored by the US.
  • Around 2050, Japan and Turkey will ally against the USA and Poland. That could lead to a new world war, some of which would be fought in space.
  • After a “golden post-war decade”, the internal struggle for power in the USA follows around 2060. The opponents are Mexicans, who will already form the majority of the population in many states of the USA after 2060.
    • Friedmann finally expects (armed) conflicts between the USA and Mexico between 2080 and 2090.

Reviews

In his Socialnet review, Martin R. Textor comes to the conclusion: “While his prognoses for the next two or three decades can still be partially understood, in the last chapters of the book they almost look like science fiction. This has nothing to do with future research! ” Hannes Hintermeier calls the Friedman prognoses in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung “ a geopolitical poster painting ”.

Andreas Rinke holds in his review in Germany Kultur Friedmann's power-political considerations for "provocative" He recommend Obama and all the presidents of the United States the principle of divide and rule to follow and adhere to the Machiavellian orienting principles of the policy. He sees the European Union and China as having little relevance for the future, as does the transatlantic partnership . It will be a dangerous century, "especially for the rest of the world".

literature

  • George Friedman: The next hundred years. The world order of the future . Campus-Verlag, Frankfurt, M. / New York, NY 2009, ISBN 978-3-593-38930-1 (English: The Next 100 Years. A Forecast for the 21st Century . New York 2007. Translated by Jürgen Neubauer).
  • Edward Champion: The Next 100 Years . In: San Francisco Chronicle . February 17, 2009 ( sfgate.com - review).

Individual evidence

  1. ^ Books - Best-Seller Lists - New York Times. In: www.nytimes.com. Retrieved November 29, 2016 .
  2. ↑ Alexander Nazaryan: Mitt Romney reads “The Next 100 Years,” book that predicts conflict with Russia, space war with Japan . In: New York DailyNews.com . May 31, 2012 ( nydailynews.com ).
  3. ↑ stratfor.com: Decade Forecast: 2015-2025 , accessed on November 28, 2016
  4. ↑ a b The presentation follows Martin R. Textor, review of July 22, 2009 to: George Friedman: The next hundred years. The world order of the future . In: socialnet reviews, ISSN 2190-9245, online . Retrieved October 22, 2016.
  5. ↑ Hannes Hintermeier , George Friedman reads the future. World look at me! , Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung , March 10, 2009, online . Retrieved October 22, 2016.
  6. ↑ - Provocative power-political considerations . In: Deutschlandradio Kultur . ( deutschlandradiokultur.de [accessed on November 26, 2016]).