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{{Infobox hurricane current
{{Infobox hurricane current
|name=Tropical Storm Noel
|name=Tropical Storm Noel
|time=11 a.m. [[Eastern Daylight Time|EDT]] (1500 [[Coordinated Universal Time|UTC]]) [[October 31]]<!-- SAME DAY, EDT AND UTC: TIME EDT (TIME UTC) DATE. DIFFERENT DAYS, EDT AND UTC: TIME EDT DATE EDT (TIME UTC DATE UTC) ///NOTICE THE DATE UTC INSIDE THE PARENTHESIS NOT OUTSIDE-->
|time=2 p.m. [[Eastern Daylight Time|EDT]] (1800 [[Coordinated Universal Time|UTC]]) [[October 31]]<!-- SAME DAY, EDT AND UTC: TIME EDT (TIME UTC) DATE. DIFFERENT DAYS, EDT AND UTC: TIME EDT DATE EDT (TIME UTC DATE UTC) ///NOTICE THE DATE UTC INSIDE THE PARENTHESIS NOT OUTSIDE-->
|category=storm
|category=storm
|type=tropical storm
|type=tropical storm
|image=Noel 28 oct 2007 1530Z.jpg
|image=Noel 28 oct 2007 1530Z.jpg
|track=2007 16 5-day track.gif
|track=2007 16 5-day track.gif
|location=[[latitude|22.7°N]] [[longitude|78.5°W]] ± 15 nm<br />About 175 mi (280 km) [[south-southwest|SSW]] of [[Nassau]], [[Bahamas]]
|location=[[latitude|22.6°N]] [[longitude|78.8°W]] ± 15 nm<br />About 190 mi (305 km) [[south-southwest|SSW]] of [[Nassau]], [[Bahamas]]
|1sustained=45 [[Knot (speed)|knots]] {{!}} 50 [[mph]] {{!}} 85 [[km/h]]
|1sustained=45 [[Knot (speed)|knots]] {{!}} 50 [[mph]] {{!}} 85 [[km/h]]
|gusts=55 knots {{!}} 65 mph {{!}} 100 km/h
|gusts=55 knots {{!}} 65 mph {{!}} 100 km/h
|pressure=994 [[mbar]] ([[hPa]]) {{!}} 29.35 [[inHg]]
|pressure=996 [[mbar]] ([[hPa]]) {{!}} 29.41 [[inHg]]
|movement=Nearly stationary
|movement=[[north-northwest|NNW]] at 7 kt {{!}} 8 mph {{!}} 13 km/h
}}
}}
{{hurricane main|Tropical Storm Noel (2007)}}
{{hurricane main|Tropical Storm Noel (2007)}}

Revision as of 18:21, 31 October 2007

Template:Ongoing weather

Template:Infobox hurricane season active The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. It officially started June 1, 2007, and will last until November 30, 2007, dates that conventionally delimit the period when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin during the year. However, the formation of Subtropical Storm Andrea on May 9, 2007 marked an earlier beginning to the season. On August 20 Hurricane Dean was upgraded to category 5 status and made landfall at that strength on the Mexican Yucatán Peninsula. When Hurricane Felix reached category 5 status, 2007 became one of four recorded Atlantic seasons that have had more than one category 5 storm; the others being 1960, 1961 and 2005, and the only time two Atlantic hurricanes have ever made landfall at Category 5 strength in the same season. Hurricane Humberto also became the fastest developing storm on record to be so close to land. It strengthened from a 35 mph (55 km/h) tropical depression to an 85 mph (135 km/h) hurricane in 14 hours while 15 miles (24 km) off the coast of Texas. September had the lowest storm activity since 1977, despite tying for the most storms in the month. Additionally, the Octobers of 2006 and 2007 had the lowest storm activity since 1976 and 1977. Hurricane Humberto became the first hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. since Hurricane Wilma in 2005. [1]

Seasonal forecasts

Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane experts Philip J. Klotzbach, Dr. William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University; and separately by NOAA forecasters.

Klotzbach's team (formerly led by Dr. Gray) defined the average number of storms per season (1950 to 2000) as 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes (storms exceeding Category 3 strength in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale). A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 9 to 12 named storms, with 5 to 7 of those reaching hurricane strength, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes.[2][3]

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2007 season
Source Date Named
storms 		Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
CSU Average (1950–2000)[2] 9.6 5.9 2.3
NOAA Average (1950–2005)[3] 11.0 6.2 2.7
Record high activity 28 15 8
Record low activity 4 2 0
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
CSU December 8, 2006 14 7 3
CSU April 3, 2007 17 9 5
NOAA May 22, 2007 13–17 7–10 3–5
CSU May 31, 2007 17 9 5
UKMO June 19, 2007 9–15 N/A N/A
CSU August 3, 2007 15 8 4
NOAA August 9, 2007 13–16 7–9 3–5
CSU September 4, 2007 15 7 4
CSU October 2, 2007 17 7 3
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Actual activity 14 4 2

Pre-season forecasts

On December 8, 2006, Klotzbach's team issued its first extended-range forecast for the 2007 season, predicting above-average activity (14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 of Category 3 or higher).[2]

The team predicted a high potential for at least one major hurricane to directly impact the United States: the forecast indicated a 64% chance of at least one major hurricane striking the U.S. mainland, which included a 40% chance of at least one major hurricane strike on the East Coast of the United States including the Florida peninsula, and a 40% chance of at least one major hurricane strike on the Gulf Coast of the United States from the Florida Panhandle westward. The potential for major hurricane activity in the Caribbean was forecast to be above average, and the team predicted El Niño to dissipate by the active portion of the season.[2]

On April 3 a new forecast was issued, calling for a very active hurricane season of 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 intense hurricanes.[4]

The increase in the forecast was attributed to the rapid dissipation of El Niño conditions. The team also forecast a neutral or weak-to-moderate La Niña for the hurricane season, and noted that sea surface temperatures were much higher than long-term averages.[5] The potential for at least one major hurricane impacting the U.S. was increased to 74%, with the U.S. East Coast potential increased to 50% and from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas increased to 49%.[5] However, Klotzbach noted that while they were calling for an active season, it was not forecast to be "as active as the 2004 and 2005 seasons".[4]

On May 22, 2007, NOAA released their pre-season forecast for the 2007 season. They predicted 13 to 17 named storms, with 7 to 10 becoming hurricanes, and 3 to 5 becoming major hurricanes.[6]

One day before the official start of the season, the CSU team issued their final set of pre-season forecasts, making no change to the numbers from their April forecast.[7]

On June 19, 2007, The United Kingdom Met Office released[8] predictions for the remainder of the season based on a new prediction model. The Met Office predicted 10 named storms, not including Andrea and Barry, with a 70% chance of 7–13 named storms. The forecast did not include specific predictions for the number of hurricanes or major hurricanes.[8]

Midseason outlooks

On August 3, 2007, Klotzbach's team lowered their season estimate to 15 named storms, with 8 becoming hurricanes and 4 becoming major hurricanes. They noted that conditions had become slightly less favorable for storms than they were earlier in the year. Sea surface temperature anomalies were cooler, and there were several incidences of Saharan Air Layer outbreaks. ENSO conditions were also noted to have been slightly cooler.[9]

On August 9, 2007, the NOAA revised their season estimate slightly downwards to 13–16 named storms, with 7–9 becoming hurricanes and 3–5 becoming major hurricanes. However, they reaffirmed their call for an above-average season. They attributed the increase in confidence of an above-average season to warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in parts of the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, as well as an updated forecast that La Niña conditions were likely during the peak of the season.[10]

On September 4, 2007, Klotzbach's team lowered their season estimate to 15 named storms, with 7 becoming hurricanes and 4 becoming major hurricanes.[11]

On October 2, 2007, Klotzbach's team adapted their season estimate to 17 named storms, with 7 becoming hurricanes and 3 becoming major hurricanes. The estimate of 7 hurricanes assumes that Karen was a hurricane[12]

Storms

Subtropical Storm Andrea

 
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;
Main article: Subtropical Storm Andrea (2007)

On May 9, a previously extratropical cyclone organized into Subtropical Storm Andrea while located about 140 miles (225 km) southeast of Savannah, Georgia. Tropical storm watches were immediately issued for parts of coastal Georgia and Florida, though were later dropped. It is the first named storm to form in May since Arlene in the 1981 Atlantic hurricane season,[13] and the first pre-season storm since Ana in April 2003.[14] Later, the organization of the system deteriorated with a significant decrease in convection as it moved over cooler waters,[15] and on May 10 it weakened to a subtropical depression and NHC issued its final advisory on Andrea at 11 PM EST, May 10. However, on the morning of May 11 convection flared up over the center, indicating that the cyclone might be acquiring tropical characteristics once again.[16] However, it did not.

The storm produced rough surf along the coastline from Florida to North Carolina, causing beach erosion and some damage.[17] One surfer drowned in Florida from the rough surf.[18] A total of 5 perished during Andrea's initial extratropical phase.[19] High winds from Andrea have been reported as fueling severe wildfires in northern Florida and southern Georgia.[20] Andrea was blamed for providing stiff winds that acted like a "chimney", fueling the blaze to firestorm levels beyond the control of firefighting officials. [20] Strong winds from the storm spread smoke from local brush fires through the Tampa Bay area to Miami.[21][22]

Tropical Storm Barry

 
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;
Main article: Tropical Storm Barry (2007)

On May 30, a broad low pressure area formed in the Gulf of Honduras. Moving northward, the system slowly deepened as it moved through the northwest Caribbean sea into the southeast Gulf of Mexico. On June 1, the first day of the officially defined hurricane season, this cyclone organized into Tropical Storm Barry despite being located in an area of high shear, and warnings were immediately issued along the Western Florida coastline. Barry provided much-needed precipitation to parts of Florida and Georgia which were experiencing drought conditions in the January to May months.[23] Barry made landfall near Tampa Bay, Florida on June 2 as a minimal tropical storm. Soon thereafter Barry was downgraded to a tropical depression as it began its extratropical transition. Barry became an extratropical cyclone late in the afternoon of June 2. On June 3, the cyclone moved up the coast of the Carolinas bringing rains into the Mid-Atlantic states and New England. By June 5 its center had moved northward into Atlantic Canada.

Tropical Storm Chantal

 
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;
Main article: Tropical Storm Chantal (2007)

An area of low pressure developed near the Bahamas on July 28, and slowly organized while moving to the north-northeast. Late on July 30, it was upgraded to a tropical depression, the third of the season, after maintaining deep convection near the center for most of the day.

On July 31, the system strengthened into a tropical storm south of Nova Scotia, the first in nearly two months. It became extratropical late that day though as it tracked towards Newfoundland over the cooler waters of the north Atlantic.

On August 1, flooding was reported from Placentia to the capital city of St. John's, where about 100 mm (4 inches) of rain caused the postponement of the annual Royal St. John's Regatta. Up to 150 mm (6 inches) of rain fell in the Whitbourne area, according to Environment Canada. [24] The most serious flooding was across the southern Avalon Peninsula, where dozens of roads were washed out, houses were flooded above their basements and several communities were isolated.[25] Ferry service between Argentia and North Sydney, Nova Scotia, was suspended, and one ferry was diverted to Port aux Basques.[26]

States of emergency were declared in at least five communities in the areas surrounding Placentia Bay and Conception Bay, and the Newfoundland and Labrador Municipal Affairs Minister Jack Byrne has requested a federal disaster area declaration. Damage is estimated to be well into the millions of dollars, with at least $4 million in damage in the town of Placentia alone.[27]

Hurricane Dean

 
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;
Main article: Hurricane Dean (2007)

A vigorous tropical wave moved off the west coast of Africa in the second week of August. It quickly organized itself and formed into a low on August 12. Tropical Depression Four formed on August 13 in the eastern Atlantic from a tropical wave to the south of Cape Verde. The depression was already exhibiting persistent deep convection, albeit confined to the western portion of its circulation due to easterly wind shear.[28] The depression was expected to strengthen significantly over the following days[28] due to abating wind shear and warming sea surface temperatures which created conditions favorable for tropical intensification.[29] The depression moved briskly westward, south of a deep layered ridge,[30] quickly escaping the easterly shear.[31]

Based on satellite images and microwave and QuikSCAT data, the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Dean on August 14.[32] The storm continued to strengthen overnight as it gained organization,[33] and on August 16 it was upgraded to the first hurricane of the 2007 season.[34]

On August 17 the eye of the hurricane passed into the Caribbean between the islands of Martinique and Saint Lucia as a Category 2 hurricane.[35] In the warm waters of the Caribbean Dean rapidly strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane.Dean then passed just south of Jamaica as a category 4 hurricane. [36]

The National Hurricane Center upgraded Dean to Category 5 status late on August 20[37] and at that strength it made landfall on the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico near Costa Maya on August 21.[38] Dean weakened to a category one storm over land.

At least 42 people have been killed by Hurricane Dean (see Impact of Hurricane Dean). None of these deaths, however, have been attributed to its first landfall, as a Category 5 hurricane, likely due to the fact that the landfall brought the heaviest storm surges onto sparsely-populated lands north of Chetumal Bay, including the Sian Ka'an Biosphere Reserve.

Tropical Storm Erin

 
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;
Main article: Tropical Storm Erin (2007)

On August 9, an area of convection developed just south of Jamaica in association with a trough of low pressure.[39] The system tracked west-northwestward, and by August 10 consisted of a broad surface trough with minimal shower activity.[40] Convection increased on August 11,[41] and by August 12 the interaction between a tropical wave and an upper-level low in the area resulted in a large area of disorganized thunderstorms extending from the western Caribbean Sea into the central Bahamas.[42] Upper-level winds gradually became more beneficial for development, and on August 13 a broad low pressure area formed about 90 miles (145 km) north-northeast of Cancún, Quintana Roo.[43] Late on August 14, a reconnaissance flight into the system reported a small circulation center, but at the time was not well-defined enough to result in the initiation of tropical cyclone advisories. However, deep convection was maintained near the increasingly organizing center, and at 0300 UTC on August 15 the National Hurricane Center classified it as Tropical Depression Five about 425 miles (685 km) southeast of Brownsville, Texas.[44]

Based on reconnaissance data received from an NOAA plane investigating the depression, it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Erin on August 15.[45] It weakened to a tropical depression as it made landfall near Lamar, Texas, on August 16[46] and the NHC issued its last advisory on the system shortly thereafter as it moved inland, and the HPC dropped the system as a tropical depression when it lost its surface wind circulation on the afternoon of August 19.[47]

Two people were killed when a warehouse collapsed in Texas.[48] In total, 18 people died as a result of Erin.

Hurricane Felix

 
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;
Main article: Hurricane Felix (2007)

On August 31, an area of weather east of the Windward Islands became organized enough, and was named Tropical Depression Six.[49] Early on September 1, it was upgraded to a tropical storm and named Felix. Later that day, Felix was upgraded to a hurricane. On September 2, Felix was upgraded to a major hurricane. It rapidly intensified into a Category 5 storm by the end of the evening, and after briefly weakening to Category 4 status Felix again restrengthened and struck northeastern Nicaragua with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h) on September 4. (See Impact of Hurricane Felix). It rapidly weakened over land and the last advisory was issued on September 5.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle

 
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;
Main article: Tropical Storm Gabrielle (2007)

A cold front that moved off the southeastern coast of the United States on September 1 developed a weak low over the waters near Georgia. The low drifted eastward and weakened over the next few days until it joined with convection from an upper-level trough that had been moving over the western Atlantic.[50] An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter investigating the low on September 7 was unable to find a well-defined circulation, but did find evidence of tropical storm-force surface winds. Subsequent satellite imagery from that evening discovered a broad and elongated low, indicating that Subtropical Storm Gabrielle had formed about 360 nautical miles southeast of Cape Hatteras.[51]

For the next twelve hours, the system's strongest winds and thunderstorms remained well to the north of the center. On September 8 new convection eventually united with the center, leading the transition of Gabrielle into a tropical storm. Gabrielle gradually strengthened as it travelled northwest towards North Carolina and Virginia. The storm reached its peak intensity just before it arrived in Cape Lookout, though strong wind shear kept most of the convection and surface winds offshore.[50] Gabrielle weakened over land, and moved back into the Atlantic on September 10. The circulation deteriorated further, and the storm dissipated southwest of Nova Scotia the next day.[52] Damages in eastern North Carolina were very light, and there were no casualties associated with this system.

Tropical Storm Ingrid

 
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;

A large, westward-moving tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on September 6. Strong easterly shear inhibited its development until the 9th, when it developed a broad area of low pressure in the mid-tropical Atlantic.[53] By the morning of September 12, the shear had weakened, allowing the system to organize into Tropical Depression Eight about 980 nautical miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

The depression moved west-nortwestward for the next week, steering along the southern edge of a mid-tropospheric ridge. Unfavorable conditions caused by moderate westerly shear inhibited the storm's initial development. Despite this, the cyclone slowly developed into a weak tropical storm on September 13, and reached its maximum intensity the next day.[53] The shearing winds from a tropical upper tropospheric trough persisted over the cyclone, returning Ingrid to a depression on September 15. The final advisory was issued on the 17th as the system degenerated into an open wave north of the Leeward Islands.[54] There were no reports of damage or casualties associated with Ingrid because the storm never threatened land.

Hurricane Humberto

 
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;
Main article: Hurricane Humberto (2007)

On September 8, weak surface trough and an upper-level low produced disorganized showers and thunderstorms between western Cuba and the eastern Gulf of Mexico.[55] The area of thunderstorms continued to move west-northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico and on September 12 thunderstorms organized enough to be classified as Tropical Depression Nine about 60 miles (100 km) southeast of Matagorda, Texas.[56] [57] The depression quickly intensified, and within three hours of forming, it became Tropical Storm Humberto.[58] Humberto turned to the north and eventually north-northeast and continued to rapidly intensify. In the early morning hours of September 13, Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Humberto had strengthened into a hurricane while located about 15 miles (20 km) off the coast of Texas. [59] Around 0700 UTC (3 a.m. CDT), Hurricane Humberto made landfall near High Island, Texas as a category 1 hurricane.[60] Humberto quickly weakened and entered Southwest Louisiana as a tropical storm during the afternoon of September 13. [61]

Hurricane Humberto caused some structural damage on High Island and widespread tree and power line damage in the Beaumont-Port Arthur area.[62] Power outages caused four oil refineries to halt production in Beaumont. One person was reported dead as a result of the storm, a Bridge City man killed when his carport crashed on him outside his house.[62]

The storm's remnants merged with a cold front while in Alabama. It dropped heavy rains on parts of Georgia and the Carolinas - areas in extreme droughts.[citation needed]

Tropical Depression Ten

 
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;
Main article: Tropical Depression Ten (2007)

An extratropical low formed off the east coast of Florida on September 18. It slowly tracked westward, breaking itself away from a trough over the Atlantic while crossing the Florida Peninsula on September 19, emerging in the Gulf of Mexico on September 20. It slowly organized itself and was classified as a subtropical depression on the morning of September 21 just south of the Florida Panhandle. Three hours later, it was reclassified as fully tropical. At 8 pm EDT (0000 UTC) later that day, Tropical Depression Ten began to move onshore, and never reached tropical storm strength.

Damage from the precursor low was reported in Eustis, Florida from one or more tornadoes that damaged or destroyed about 50 houses, but caused no serious injuries.[63]

Tropical Storm Jerry

 
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;

Jerry began as a non-tropical low that drifted around the central North Atlantic on September 21. Convection gradually developed and eventually wrapped around the low. Given that the system was involved with an upper-level low, and that the convection and strongest winds were distant from the center, it was classified as a subtropical depression on September 23 about 1060 miles (1710 kilometers) west of the Azores.[64][65] The storm was poorly organized and lacked a well-defined inner core; but later that day, satellite intensity observations and QuikScat data estimated that it had intensified into a subtropical storm.[66]

Jerry became fully tropical on September 24 when deep convection developed near the center and the radius of maximum winds decreased.[64] Thereafter, the storm tracked northeastward over cooler waters and began to weaken. Jerry accelerated ahead of a strong cold front, and the circulation opened up into a sharp trough. By September 25 the storm had completely dissipated. Since Jerry remained far from land throughout its short life, there were no reports of casualties or damages associated with the system.[64]

Tropical Storm Karen

 
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;

In the fourth week of September, a very large tropical wave emerged off the coast of Africa and tracked south of Cape Verde. It slowly became organized, by early on September 25, it became a tropical depression, and 6 hours later was upgraded to Tropical Storm Karen. It was slow to intensify at first, but on September 26, Karen rapidly intensified to near hurricane intensity early in the day (possibly briefly becoming a hurricane[67]) before increased wind shear stalled the intensification and began to slowly weaken the storm.

Hurricane Lorenzo

 
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;
Main article: Hurricane Lorenzo (2007)

A tropical wave moved off the western coast of Africa on September 11,[68] traversed the Caribbean and crossed the Yucatán on September 21. The disturbance developed a small surface low on the 24th while moving erratically over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.[68] Strong upper-level winds initially prevented the system from developing convection; however, it relaxed on the following day and convection increased.[69][68] On the evening of September 25, a Hurricane Hunter aircraft found evidence that the low qualified as a tropical depression.[70]

Under weak steering currents, the depression drifted south and southwest, executing a small cyclonic loop into the Bay of Campeche. Upper-level winds gave way to an anticyclone above the depression, and the system became a Tropical Storm Lorenzo on September 27 about 130 nautical miles east of Tuxpan.[68] Rapid intensification brought Lorenzo to hurricane status early that evening, less than twelve hours after becoming a tropical storm. Lorenzo reached its peak intensity on September 28, then weakened slightly before making landfall near Tecolutla, Mexico as a minimal hurricane. The small circulation weakened rapidly after landfall, and the system dissipated the next day.[68]

Six deaths in Mexico were attributable to Lorenzo; mostly attributable to flash floods and mudslides. The states of Puebla and Veracruz reported damage from rain and high winds. Two hundred people were forced to evacuate in Hidalgo when the San Lorenzo River overflowed its banks. Lorenzo made landfall in virtually the same location that Hurricane Dean had struck a month earlier.[68]

Tropical Storm Melissa

 
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;

Melissa began as a tropical wave that exited the western coast of Africa on September 26. The next day an area of low pressure developed near the Cape Verde islands, and the system soon organized into Tropical Depression Fourteen on September 28.[71] The depression drifted westward between very weak steering currents. Ordinarily a system would be steered along the edge of a subtropical ridge, but a low pressure system over the northeastern Atlantic subdued its development.[72]

While inching westward, the depression strengthened slightly and became Tropical Storm Melissa on September 29, tying the record for most storms to form in a month.[citation needed] The next day increasing westerly shear weakened Melissa back to a tropical depression. As it lost deep convection, the depression moved rapidly toward the west-northwest along the southern edge of a regenerating low-level ridge.[72] Thunderstorm activity sputtered, and the depression degenerated to a remnant low on the 30th about 475 nautical miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. The low tracked along the low-level ridge for the several days, and merged with a frontal zone northeast of the Leeward Islands on October 5. Since Melissa did not affect land, there were no reports of damage or casualties associated with the storm.[72]

Tropical Depression Fifteen

 
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;

On October 11, a tropical depression formed in the central Atlantic east of Bermuda out of a previously non-tropical low, which could possibly have involved the remnants of Tropical Storm Karen.[73] It dissipated without further development.

Tropical Storm Noel

Tropical Storm Noel
Current storm status
Tropical storm (1-min mean)
Satellite image
Forecast map
As of:2 p.m. EDT (1800 UTC) October 31
Location:22.6°N 78.8°W ± 15 nm
About 190 mi (305 km) SSW of Nassau, Bahamas
Sustained winds:45 knots | 50 mph | 85 km/h (1-min mean)
gusting to 55 knots | 65 mph | 100 km/h
Pressure:996 mbar (hPa) | 29.41 inHg
Movement:Nearly stationary
See more detailed information.
Main article: Tropical Storm Noel (2007)
Map plotting the storm's track and intensity, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale
Map key
Saffir–Simpson scale
  Tropical depression (≤38 mph, ≤62 km/h)
  Tropical storm (39–73 mph, 63–118 km/h)
  Category 1 (74–95 mph, 119–153 km/h)
  Category 2 (96–110 mph, 154–177 km/h)
  Category 3 (111–129 mph, 178–208 km/h)
  Category 4 (130–156 mph, 209–251 km/h)
  Category 5 (≥157 mph, ≥252 km/h)
  Unknown
Storm type
triangle Extratropical cyclone, remnant low, tropical disturbance, or monsoon depression

During the evening of October 27, a low pressure system that had been slowly developing over the eastern Caribbean gained enough organization to be declared Tropical Depression Sixteen. It steadily intensified and became a tropical storm on the afternoon of October 28. It made landfall in Haiti on October 29, and brought torrential rain to Hispaniola, killing at least 48 people.[74]

Current storm information

See: Current storm information

Accumulated Cyclone Energy

ACE (104kt²) (Source) — Storm:
1 33.75 Dean 8 1.098 Gabrielle
2 16.54 Felix 9 0.773 Barry
3 3.528 Karen 10 0.730 Chantal
4 2.488 Noel 11 0.490 Melissa
5 1.475 Lorenzo 12 0.368 Erin
6 1.370 Humberto 13 0.368 Jerry
7 1.300 Ingrid
Total: 64.3

The table on the right shows the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for each storm in the season. ACE is, broadly speaking, a measure of the power of the hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed, so storms that last a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, have high ACEs. ACE is only calculated for full advisories on tropical systems at or exceeding 34 knots (39 mph, 63 km/h) or tropical storm strength. While Subtropical Storm Andrea was a named storm of the 2007 season, NOAA does not officially include subtropical storms' ACE ratings in season totals.[75] Andrea's ACE would have been 0.895 104kt² had it been tropical. Values accrued while Gabrielle and Jerry were subtropical are not included in their totals.

Timeline of recent events

Main article: Timeline of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season

October

October 27
October 28
  • 1:40 p.m. EDT (1740 UTC): Tropical Depression Sixteen strengthens into Tropical Storm Noel.
October 29
  • c. 7 a.m. EDT (1100 UTC): Tropical Storm Noel makes its first landfall in southwestern Haiti with 45 mph (70 km/h) winds.
October 30
  • c. 6 a.m. EDT (1000 UTC): Tropical Storm Noel makes its second landfall near Gibara, Cuba with 60 mph (95 km/h) winds.

Storm names

The following names will be used for named storms that form in the Atlantic basin in 2007.[76] Names to be retired, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2008. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2013 season. Storms were named Andrea, Ingrid and Melissa for the first time in 2007. The list is the same as the 2001 list except for Andrea, Ingrid, and Melissa, which replaced Allison, Iris, and Michelle, respectively. Names that have not been assigned are marked in gray.

  • Olga (unused)
  • Pablo (unused)
  • Rebekah (unused)
  • Sebastien (unused)
  • Tanya (unused)
  • Van (unused)
  • Wendy (unused)

See also

Template:Tcportal

References

  1. ^ "COAPS - Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity".
  2. ^ a b c d Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray (2006-12-08). "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2007". Colorado State University. Retrieved 2006-12-08. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  3. ^ a b Climate Prediction Center (2006-08-08). "BACKGROUND INFORMATION: THE NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved 2006-12-08. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  4. ^ a b "Colorado State forecast team calls for very active 2007 hurricane season". Colorado State University. 2007-04-03. Retrieved 2007-04-03. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  5. ^ a b Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray (2007-04-03). "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2007". Colorado State University. Retrieved 2007-04-03. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  6. ^ NOAA (2007-05-22). "NOAA Predicts Above Normal 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved 2007-05-22. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  7. ^ Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray (2007-05-31). "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2007". Colorado State University. Retrieved 2007-05-31. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  8. ^ a b UK Met Office (2007-06-19). "Met Office: Tropical cyclone forecast verification". UK Met Office. Retrieved 2007-06-24. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  9. ^ Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray (2007-08-03). "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2007" (PDF). Colorado State University. Retrieved 2007-08-03. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |year= (help)
  10. ^ NOAA (2007-08-09). "NOAA updates Atlantic hurricane season outlook". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved 2007-08-09. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |year= (help)
  11. ^ Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray (2007-09-04). "FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FOR SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER 2007 AND SEASONAL UPDATE THROUGH AUGUST" (PDF). Colorado State University. Retrieved 2007-09-04. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |year= (help)
  12. ^ Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray (2007-10-02). "FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FOR OCTOBER-NOVEMBER 2007 AND SEASONAL UPDATE THROUGH SEPTEMBER" (PDF). Colorado State University. Retrieved 2007-10-02. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |year= (help)
  13. ^ http://www.hurricanecity.com/offseason.htm
  14. ^ http://www.hurricanecity.com/offseason.htm
  15. ^ Knabb (2007). "Subtropical Storm Andrea Discussion Two". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-05-09.
  16. ^ National Hurricane Center. May 11 1800 UTC Tropical Weather Discussion. Retrieved on 2007-05-11.
  17. ^ Brown (2007). "May 9 Special Tropical Disturbance Statement". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-05-09.
  18. ^ Tanya Caldwell (2007). "Holly Hill surfer drowns after taking on 'gigantic wave' in New Smyrna Beach - Orlando Sentinel - Volusia County News". Orlando Sentinel. Retrieved 2007-05-10.
  19. ^ National Hurricane Center. June 1 Tropical Weather Outlook. Retrieved on 2007-06-01.
  20. ^ a b Kevin Spear and Jim Stratton (2007-05-12). "'Fire of a lifetime' hits North Florida". Orlando Sentinel. Retrieved 2007-05-13.
  21. ^ Staff Writer (2007). "Subtropical storm Andrea is swirling off the north Florida coastline". Bradenton Herald. Retrieved 2007-05-09.
  22. ^ CNN Staff Writer (2007). "Atlantic's first named storm whips up wildfires". CNN. Retrieved 2007-05-10. {{cite web}}: |author= has generic name (help)
  23. ^ Drought Information Statement - National Weather Service Tallahassee, FL
  24. ^ http://www.thestar.com/News/article/242061
  25. ^ http://www.canada.com/cityguides/halifax/info/story.html?id=b3f93a19-1a81-4558-b1c8-3a585572d909&k=72967
  26. ^ http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/070802/national/bc_tropical_weather_damage_1
  27. ^ http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/070802/national/bc_tropical_weather_damage_1
  28. ^ a b Knabb (2007). "Tropical Depression Four Discussion One". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-08-14.
  29. ^ Knabb (2007). "Tropical Depression Four Discussion Two". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-08-14.
  30. ^ Brown/Franklin (2007). "Tropical Depression Four Discussion Three". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-08-14.
  31. ^ Rhome (2007). "Tropical Depression Four Discussion Four". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-08-14.
  32. ^ Avila (2007). "Tropical Storm Dean Discussion Five". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-08-14.
  33. ^ Beven (2007). "Tropical Storm Dean Discussion Eight". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-08-15.
  34. ^ Beven (2007). "Tropical Storm Dean Discussion Twelve". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-08-16.
  35. ^ Avila (2007). "Hurricane Dean Discussion Seventeen". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-08-17.
  36. ^ Knabb (2007). "Hurricane Dean Intermediate Advisory Nineteen 'A'". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-08-17.
  37. ^ Knabb (2007). "Hurricane Dean Tropical Cyclone Update". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-08-20.
  38. ^ Pasch/Brown (2007). "Hurricane Dean Tropical Cyclone Discussion Thirty-three". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-08-21.
  39. ^ Beven (2007). "August 9 Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-08-14.
  40. ^ Beven (2007). "August 10 Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-08-14.
  41. ^ Rhome (2007). "August 11 Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-08-14.
  42. ^ Blake (2007). "August 12 Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-08-14.
  43. ^ Knabb/Blake (2007). "August 13 Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-08-14.
  44. ^ Franklin (2007). "Tropical Depression Five Discussion One". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-08-14.
  45. ^ Avila (2007). "Tropical Storm Erin Tropical Cyclone Update". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-08-15.
  46. ^ Avila (2007). "Tropical Storm Erin Intermediate Advisory 7a". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-08-16.
  47. ^ Avila (2007). "Tropical Storm Erin Advisory 8". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-08-16.
  48. ^ Texans, dealing with rain and flooding, brace Hurricane Dean
  49. ^ Blake/Avila (2007-08-31). "Tropical Depression Six Public Advisory One". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-08-31. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  50. ^ a b Daniel P. Brown (2007-10-29). "Tropical Cyclone Report for Tropical Storm Gabrielle" (PDF). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-10-30.
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  52. ^ Brown (2007-09-11). "Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion 16". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-10-30.
  53. ^ a b National Hurricane Center (2007). "Tropical Cyclone Report for Tropical Storm Ingrid" (PDF). Retrieved 2007-10-18.
  54. ^ Franklin (2007). "Tropical Storm Ingrid Advisory Twenty". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-10-18.
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  57. ^ Franklin (2007). "Tropical Depression Nine Discussion One". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-09-12.
  58. ^ Franklin (2007). "Tropical Storm Humberto Public Advisory One-A". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-09-12.
  59. ^ Mainelli & Avila (2007). "Hurricane Humberto Special Discussion Four". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-09-13.
  60. ^ Mainelli & Avila (2007). "Hurricane Humberto Discussion Five". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-09-13.
  61. ^ Franklin (2007). "Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Six". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-09-13.
  62. ^ a b Gallaspy, Beth (2007-09-13). "Hurricane Humberto hammers SE Texas, kills Bridge City man". The Beaumont Enterprise. Beaumont Enterprise. Retrieved 2007-09-13. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  63. ^ http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/lake/orl-bk-tornadowarning092007,0,1891646.story?track=rss
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  65. ^ Knabb (2007-09-23). "Subtropical Depression Eleven Advisory 1". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-10-24.
  66. ^ Pasch (2007-09-23). "Subtropical Storm Jerry Discussion 2". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-10-24.
  67. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/al12/al122007.discus.009.shtml
  68. ^ a b c d e f National Hurricane Center (2007). "Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Lorenzo" (PDF). Retrieved 2007-10-19.
  69. ^ Franklin and Brown (2007). "September 24 5:30 p.m. Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-09-26.
  70. ^ Franklin (2007). "Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion 1". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-09-26.
  71. ^ Avila (2007-09-28). "Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion 1". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-09-29.
  72. ^ a b c Richard D. Knabb (2007-10-13). "Tropical Cyclone Report for Tropical Storm Melissa" (PDF). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-10-23.
  73. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/al15/al152007.discus.001.shtml?
  74. ^ http://www.myfoxal.com/myfox/pages/News/Detail?contentId=4791711&version=1&locale=EN-US&layoutCode=TSTY&pageId=3.4.1
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  76. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

External links

Template:2000-2009 Atlantic hurricane seasons

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