Presidential election in the Republic of China (Taiwan) 2016
The 2016 presidential election of the Republic of China (Taiwan) took place on January 16, 2016. It was the 6th direct election of the President in the Republic of China to Taiwan . The legislative yuan election also took place on the same day . The election was won by the candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party Tsai Ing-wen with 56.2% of the vote.
prehistory
The election is a regular election. The last presidential election took place on January 14, 2012, almost exactly 4 years ago, and was won by the previous incumbent Ma Ying-jeou ( Kuomintang , KMT) with a 51.6% majority. His main opponent, Tsai Ing-wen ( Democratic Progressive Party , DPP) received 45.6% of the vote.
Traditionally, the political camp in Taiwan has been divided primarily over the question of the relationship with the People's Republic of China , which claims Taiwan as a “breakaway province” ( Taiwan conflict ). The so-called pan-blue camp under the leadership of the KMT advocates particularly economic cooperation with the People's Republic and rejects a unilateral declaration of independence by Taiwan. The pan-green camp under the leadership of the DPP, on the other hand, emphasizes Taiwan's right to exist as an independent democratic state and views close cooperation with the People's Republic of China with suspicion.
Candidate selection at the Kuomintang
Initial selection
According to the constitution, President Ma could not run for a third term, which is why the Kuomintang set about choosing a new candidate for the upcoming election in 2015. Several candidates were originally being discussed. However, two of the most promising candidates, Speaker Wang Jin-pying and Eric Chu , the KMT party chairman and Mayor of New Taipei , canceled early, leaving only two candidates, Vice President Hung Hsiu-chu and former Health Minister Yang Chih-liang. Of these two candidates, only Hung qualified for further selection. The competitor Yang did not manage to raise the required 15,000 supporter votes in the party's internal preselection. According to the statutes of the KMT, an opinion poll of the population about the possible candidacy of Hung Hsiu-chu was then carried out. A prerequisite for the final nomination was at least 30% approval of this survey. In the run-up to the opinion poll, there was some irritation, as rumors surfaced that Hung's candidacy was not approved by the KMT leadership and that other people might still want to run. The poll, conducted by three companies, found that Hung Hsiu-chu's candidacy was 46.2%. The KMT party superiors then assured Hung of their support. At the KMT party congress on July 19, 2015, Hung Hsiu-chu was officially nominated as a KMT candidate for the upcoming presidential election.
Since Tsai Ing-wen had also been nominated as a top candidate for the DPP, it looked as if the office of president would most likely be filled by a woman for the first time from 2016, a fact that also spread in the international press Received attention.
Change of candidate at KMT
On August 10, 2015, the Cross-Strait Policy Association published an opinion poll that found Tsai Ing-wen (DPP) with an approval rating of 42.9%. James Soong (Qinmindang) came in at 23.3% and Hung Hsiu-chu (KMT) only got 16.8% when he was behind. Further opinion polls with similar results followed in the following weeks. On October 5, 2015, a KMT spokesman finally confirmed that there were internal party discussions about Hung Hsiu-chu's candidacy. An extraordinary special party conference of the KMT was called on October 17, 2015, at which Hung was withdrawn from the presidential candidacy. In their place, KMT chairman Eric Chu was nominated as a candidate. Former Labor Minister Wang Ju-hsuan ("Jennifer" Wang) was selected on November 16, 2015 as the candidate for the vice-presidential post.
An opinion poll on November 28, 2015 showed Tsai Ing-wen with 46% still clearly in the lead ahead of Eric Chu (KMT) with 19% and James Soong with 9%.
Selection of candidates at the DPP
After losing the presidential election in 2012, Tsai Ing-wen initially resigned as party leader. However, after the so-called sunflower movement , an opposition movement against the KMT government that was largely supported by students, she made a political comeback in spring 2014 and was then re-elected as DPP chairman. On April 15, 2015, the DPP nominated Tsai Ing-wen as the official presidential candidate. On November 16, 2015, the DPP presented its candidate for the office of Vice President. It was the Vice President of Academia Sinica Chen Chien-jen .
More candidates
On August 6, 2015, James Soong , the party leader of the small Qinmindang (English People First Party , PFP) announced his candidacy. Soong ran in 2000 and 2012 (and in 2004 as a vice-presidential candidate in the alliance with the KMT), but has been defeated in every election so far. His announcement met with rather critical reactions, especially at KMT, as it was feared that the pan-blue camp would split and weaken. Soong chose Hsu Hsin-ying , who had belonged to the KMT until 2015 and then joined the newly formed Minkuotang ("Republican Party"), as the candidate for the vice-presidential post .
Campaign issues
During the 8 years of KMT government since 2008, many dissatisfactions have accumulated. One expression of this dissatisfaction was the sunflower movement mentioned above. In the regional elections on November 29, 2014, the KMT suffered massive losses and lost numerous mayor positions, including that of the capital Taipei . The KMT's policy, particularly in the negotiations with the People's Republic of China on economic and service agreements, was perceived not only by DPP supporters as opaque and dangerous for Taiwan's independence. The rigid political camps - the pan-blue of the KMT and the pan-green of the DPP - are increasingly beginning to soften, according to the impressions of political observers. In the past, it was almost the rule that people or their descendants who came from mainland China were predominantly part of the Kuomintang, while the island's “natives” tended to choose the DPP. This is no longer the case today and there are much more swing voters and voter fluctuation, which is an expression of a democratic development. There is also dissatisfaction among young Taiwanese with the unequal distribution of income and wealth, which has been further stabilized by the KMT policy. Economic growth in Taiwan, traditionally one of the “ tiger states ”, has also slowed noticeably, and in 2015 is expected to barely reach 1%. Despite high corporate profits, the average household income in Taiwan is significantly lower than in other developed Asian countries such as South Korea , Japan or Singapore . Younger Taiwanese, in particular, have often had the impression that the deepening economic relations with the People's Republic of China have largely benefited only a small class of business people. In its election campaign program, the DPP promised an economic improvement for the younger generation, better equality of opportunity, more transparency and a reform of government institutions. The aim is to reunite the torn Taiwanese society.
Television debates
On December 19, 2015, the central election commission announced the dates for the TV debates of the top candidates. Originally, three debates were planned on December 25 and 30, 2015 and January 8, 2016 between the three main candidates (Tsai, Chu and Soong), but ultimately there were only two on December 27, 2015 and January 2, 2016. Another debate took place on December 28, 2015 between the main candidates for the vice-presidency (Chen, Wang, Hsu).
Attitude abroad
The preference of the People's Republic of China for the two candidates from the pan-blue camp was not surprising. However, the People's Republic avoided any too direct interference in the election campaign, as the past had shown that such interference or even military threatening gestures (before the 1996 presidential election in Taiwan, the People's Republic had tested medium-range ballistic missiles in the Formosa Strait, which was only a few nautical miles before the Taiwan's coastline) tended to have the opposite effect on the electorate, driving them into the anti-mainland camp.
The attitude of the United States was particularly noteworthy . Before the last presidential election in 2012 , the United States had officially declared its respect for the free democratic choice of Taiwan's voters, but had made it clear its preference for the Kuomintang candidate Ma. The reason for this was the concern that under a DPP president tensions with the People's Republic of China would increase. American politicians no longer showed this preference in the current election. The main reason for this change of heart was the noticeable deterioration in bilateral relations between the United States and the People's Republic of China , which the United States accuses of behaving contrary to international law in the territorial conflicts in the South China Sea .
Opinion polls
In all opinion polls since August 2015, Tsai Ing-wen was more or less clearly in the lead.
| Nationwide | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survey institute | Date of the survey (s) |
Eric Chu KMT |
Tsai Ing-wen DPP |
James Soong Qinmindang |
draw |
| Decision making research | Aug 24, 2015 | 25.5% | 41.2% | 15.0% | 18.3% |
| Kuomintang | Sep 14 2015 | 33% | 43% | 13% | 11% |
| Apple Daily | Oct 6, 2015 | 29.28% | 40.92% | 15.07% | 14.73% |
| Television Broadcasts Satellite | Oct 7, 2015 | 29% | 48% | 10% | 13% |
| Decision making research | Oct 7, 2015 | 19.0% | 42.1% | 14.1% | 24.8% |
| Taiwan Indicators Survey Research | Oct 13, 2015 | 21.0% | 44.6% | 12.0% | 22.4% |
| Apple Daily | Oct 16, 2015 | 26.23% | 45.47% | 12.63% | 15.67% |
| Fades Survey Research | Oct 16, 2015 | 17.17% | 40.18% | 22.39% | 17.72% |
| Liberty Times | Oct 17, 2015 | 18.91% | 47.04% | 7.86% | 26.19% |
| Decision making research | Oct 17, 2015 | 21.9% | 45.2% | 13.8% | 19.1% |
| Trend Survey Research | Oct 17, 2015 | 20.7% | 41.6% | 10.1% | 27.6% |
| TVBS | Oct 19, 2015 | 29% | 46% | 10% | 15% |
| China Times | Oct 22, 2015 | 21.8% | 38.9% | 8.8% | 30.5% |
| People first party | Oct 24, 2015 | 17% | 40% | 23% | 20% |
| Taiwan Indicators Survey Research | Nov 12, 2015 | 20.4% | 46.2% | 10.4% | 13% |
| Shih Hsin University Research | Nov 27, 2015 | 18.4% | 44.5% | 6.8% | 30.3% |
| SET News | Dec 6, 2015 | 15.7% | 44.9% | 13.7% | 25.7% |
| TVBS | Dec 13, 2015 | 22% | 45% | 10% | 23% |
| Think tank | Dec 28, 2015 | 20.4% | 44.4% | 14.2% | 21.0% |
| New Taipei | |||||
| Television Broadcasts Satellite | Oct 15, 2015 | 31% | 47% | 14% | 7% |
| New Taipei 6th constituency | |||||
| Next Television | Oct 21, 2015 | 20.9% | 49.8% | 8.1% | 21.2% |
| Hsinchu | |||||
| Focus Survey Research | Oct 20, 2015 | 21.0% | 46.7% | 12.9% | 19.4% |
| Taichung | |||||
| Kuomintang | Oct 15, 2015 | 12.8% | 41.4% | 8.4% | 37.4% |
Results
Nationwide results
The turnout was 66.27%. Of the 18,782,991 eligible voters, 12,448,302 cast their votes. 12,284,970 votes were valid and 163,332 invalid.
The counting of the votes from the 15,582 polling stations was completed around 10:30 p.m. local time (= 3:30 p.m. Central European Time ).
| Candidates (President and Vice) | Political party | be right | percent | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), Chen Chien-jen (陳建仁) |
DPP | 6,894,744 | 56.12% | |
| Eric Chu (朱立倫), Jennifer Wang (王如玄) |
Kuomintang | 3,813,365 | 31.04% | |
| James Soong (宋楚瑜), Hsu Hsin-ying (徐欣瑩) |
Qinmindang | 1,576,861 | 12.84% | |
| total | 12.284.970 | 100.0% | ||
Results according to rural and urban districts
The following table shows the results by rural and urban districts.
| Constituency | Registered voters |
Chu • Wang | Tsai • Chen | Soong • Hsu | electoral participation |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| be right | % | be right | % | be right | % | |||
| Taipei City (臺北市) | 2,175,986 | 546.491 | 37.49% | 757.383 | 51.95% | 153,804 | 10.55% | 68.03% |
| New Taipei City (新 北市) | 3,204,367 | 709.374 | 33.33% | 1,165,888 | 54.79% | 252,486 | 11.86% | 67.23% |
| Keelung City (基隆市) | 306,548 | 68,357 | 35.28% | 93,402 | 48.21% | 31,955 | 16.49% | 63.99% |
| Yilan County (宜蘭 縣) | 369.211 | 59,216 | 25.38% | 144,798 | 62.06% | 29,288 | 12.55% | 64.05% |
| Taoyuan City (桃園 市) | 1,627,598 | 369.013 | 34.38% | 547.573 | 51.02% | 156,518 | 14.58% | 66.66% |
| Hsinchu County (新竹 縣) | 412.731 | 94,603 | 35.28% | 114.023 | 42.52% | 59,510 | 22.19% | 65.89% |
| Hsinchu City (新竹市) | 328,580 | 71,771 | 32.42% | 113.386 | 51.22% | 36,198 | 16.35% | 68.32% |
| Miaoli County (苗栗 縣) | 448,520 | 107,779 | 37.55% | 130,461 | 45.45% | 48,788 | 16.99% | 64.81% |
| Taichung City (台中市) | 2,138,519 | 430.005 | 29.81% | 793.281 | 55.00% | 218.810 | 15.17% | 68.36% |
| Changhua County (彰化 縣) | 1,022,962 | 193.117 | 28.79% | 378.736 | 56.47% | 98,807 | 14.73% | 66.63% |
| Nantou County (南投 縣) | 415.122 | 83,604 | 32.08% | 136.104 | 52.23% | 40,868 | 15.68% | 63.65% |
| Yunlin County (雲林 縣) | 566.207 | 86,047 | 24.93% | 218,842 | 63.40% | 40,236 | 11.65% | 61.84% |
| Chiayi County (嘉義 縣) | 430,885 | 65,425 | 23.38% | 182.913 | 65.37% | 31,469 | 11.24% | 65.93% |
| Chiayi City (嘉義 市) | 210.758 | 38,822 | 27.95% | 83.143 | 59.86% | 16,926 | 12.18% | 66.61% |
| Tainan City (台南市) | 1,528,246 | 219.196 | 22.06% | 670.608 | 67.51% | 103,432 | 10.41% | 65.81% |
| Kaohsiung City (高雄市) | 2,254,324 | 391.823 | 26.00% | 955.168 | 63.39% | 159,765 | 10.60% | 67.64% |
| Pingtung County (屏東 縣) | 689.170 | 121.291 | 26.99% | 285.297 | 63.49% | 42,768 | 9.51% | 66.01% |
| Taitung County (台東縣) | 179,547 | 43,581 | 44.62% | 37,517 | 38.41% | 16,565 | 16.96% | 55.07% |
| Hualien County (花蓮 縣) | 267,862 | 73,894 | 47.72% | 57.198 | 36.93% | 23,751 | 15.33% | 58.68% |
| Penghu County (澎湖縣) | 84,222 | 12,564 | 29.47% | 21,658 | 50.81% | 8,401 | 19.71% | 51.37% |
| Kinmen (金門 縣) | 111,386 | 24,327 | 66.09% | 6,626 | 18.00% | 5,852 | 15.90% | 33.58% |
| Matsu Islands (連江縣) | 10,240 | 3,065 | 68.59% | 739 | 16.53% | 664 | 14.86% | 44.46% |
Voting cards
Majorities in the urban and rural communities
Majorities in the 22 rural and urban districts: Tsai / Chen Chu / Wang
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Web links
- Information from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of China (Taiwan )
- Olivier Laurent: Behind TIME's Cover With Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen , TIME Magazine cover story, June 22, 2015
- Interview with Tsai Ing-wen on the DPP website
- Wang Yu-chung, Peng Hsien-chun, Liu Li-jen, Jonathan Chin: INTERVIEW: Chu says he had to run for president 'for democracy' , Taipei Times, October 20, 2015 (Interview with Eric Chu, English)
Individual evidence
- ↑ a b c d Presidential and Vice Presidential Election: Ballots cast of Candidates. Central Election Commission, January 16, 2016, accessed on January 16, 2016 .
- ↑ Nomination of the presidential candidate according to the official procedure. Radio Taiwan International (German service), May 19, 2015, accessed December 11, 2015 .
- ↑ Preparations for the presidential election at KMT and DPP. Radio Taiwan International (German service), May 25, 2015, accessed on December 11, 2015 .
- ↑ Possible candidate wrangling at KMT. Radio Taiwan International (German service), June 9, 2015, accessed December 11, 2015 .
- ↑ KMT boss promises support for candidate. Radio Taiwan International (German service), June 17, 2015, accessed December 11, 2015 .
- ↑ Hung Hsiu-chu officially KMT presidential candidate. Radio Taiwan International (German service), July 19, 2015, accessed December 11, 2015 .
- ↑ Cindy Sui: The women who could lead Taiwan. BBC News, July 20, 2015, accessed December 11, 2015 .
- ↑ Ralph Jennings: Taiwan seems sure to elect its first female president. But which one? Los Angeles Times, July 19, 2015, accessed December 11, 2015 .
- ^ Jack Crone: Taiwan to elect first female leader as two women go head-to-head in presidential battle. Daily Mail, July 19, 2015, accessed December 11, 2015 .
- ↑ Survey: 42.9% approval for DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen. Radio Taiwan International (German service), August 10, 2015, accessed on December 11, 2015 .
- ↑ KMT confirms requests to change candidates. Radio Taiwan International (German service), October 5, 2015, accessed on December 11, 2015 .
- ↑ The ruling party KMT exchanges presidential candidates. October 17, 2015, accessed December 11, 2015 .
- ↑ Eric Chu nominates former Minister of Labor as a vice-presidential candidate. Radio Taiwan International (German service), November 16, 2015, accessed on December 11, 2015 .
- ↑ Opinion poll on the election: Tsai continues well ahead of Chu. Radio Taiwan International (German service), October 5, 2015, accessed on December 11, 2015 .
- ↑ Tsai Ing-wen was officially named as the DPP's presidential candidate on Wednesday. Radio Taiwan International (German service), April 14, 2015, accessed December 11, 2015 .
- ↑ Opposition presents vice-presidential candidates. Radio Taiwan International (German service), November 16, 2015, accessed on December 11, 2015 .
- ↑ PDF Chairman James Soong announces candidacy for presidential election. Radio Taiwan International (German service), August 6, 2015, accessed on December 11, 2015 .
- ↑ Restrained reactions from the KMT camp to the candidacy of James Soong. Radio Taiwan International (German service), August 6, 2015, accessed on December 11, 2015 .
- ↑ PFP candidate James Soong nominates vice presidential candidate. Radio Taiwan International (German service), November 18, 2015, accessed on December 11, 2015 .
- ^ Ricky Yeh: Why the KMT Failed in Taiwan's Local Elections. The Diplomat, December 9, 2014, accessed December 11, 2015 .
- ↑ a b Cindy Sui: Taiwan's ruling KMT faces tough challenges after big defeat. BBC News, December 1, 2014, accessed December 11, 2015 .
- ↑ Statistics Office: 1% GDP growth difficult to achieve. Radio Taiwan International (German service), October 1, 2015, accessed on December 11, 2015 .
- ^ An election battle for the identity of Taiwan. BBC News, January 1, 2016, accessed January 3, 2016 .
- ↑ Tsai Ing-wen: VOTE 2016: Tsai Ing-wen's Five Major Reforms: The DPP presidential candidate describes the five pillars of her future administration. thinking-taiwan.com, September 17, 2015, accessed December 11, 2015 .
- ^ Dates for television debates on the presidential election campaign. Radio Taiwan International (German service), October 1, 2015, accessed December 20, 2015 .
- ↑ CHEN Yi-hsuan: First televised debate of the presidential candidates. Taiwan today, December 29, 2015; accessed January 10, 2016 .
- ↑ CHEN Yi-hsuan: Chu, Tsai and Soong in the second television debate. Taiwan today, January 5, 2015; accessed January 10, 2016 .
- ↑ CHEN Yi-hsuan: Vice-presidential candidates explain points of view. Taiwan today, January 1, 2016; accessed January 10, 2016 .
- ↑ Shih Hsiu-chuan: 2012 ELECTIONS: US has 'clear preference' for Ma win: US academic. Taipei Times, December 25, 2011, accessed January 16, 2016 .
- ^ Neal Donnelly, Fulton Armstrong: Taiwan elections: US must show respect for self-determination. The Christian Science Monitor, January 5, 2012, accessed January 16, 2016 .
- ↑ Shih Hsiu-chuan: 2012 ELECTIONS: US shows Ma preference: experts. January 8, 2012, accessed January 16, 2016 .
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