Presidential election in the Republic of China (Taiwan) 2020

The 2020 presidential election of the Republic of China (Taiwan) took place on January 11th. The legislative yuan was also elected on the same day . It was the sixth presidential election in the Republic of China (Taiwan) since direct election of the president was introduced in 1994. The election was won by incumbent Tsai Ing-wen , who received 57.13% of the vote.

Developments since the last election

The last election of the president and the legislative yuan took place on January 16, 2016. This election marked a political turning point, as for the first time the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was able to win a majority of the mandates in the legislative yuan as well as occupy the presidency. The DPP chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen was elected president. The DPP had already filled the presidency with Chen Shui-bian for two terms in the years 2000 to 2008 , but at that time President Chen was faced with a parliamentary majority of the opposition Kuomintang who tried to block his political plans for the entire term of office .

After the 2016 elections, things were different and President Tsai was able to rely on a broad parliamentary majority. The new DPP government set about implementing the program to strengthen civil rights promised during the election campaign.

Relations with the People's Republic of China and the United States

Under the new DPP government, Taiwan 's relationship with the People's Republic of China deteriorated significantly (the two sides have no official diplomatic relations with each other). President Tsai explicitly refused to recognize the so-called " 1992 consensus " as the basis for mutual relations, as this did not correspond to the majority will of the Taiwanese people. The "1992 consensus" - a vague statement according to which Taiwan and the People's Republic are part of "one China", but on which both sides have different views - was still used by Tsai's predecessor Ma Ying-jeou as the basis of his policy towards the People's Republic China has been designated. The clearly recognizable endeavor of the new government to steer a course in the direction of increased independence for Taiwan was answered by the People's Republic with increased activities aimed at further diplomatic isolation of Taiwan. Lured by generous, multi-million dollar financial and investment commitments, some traditional allies of Taiwan switched sides and established diplomatic relations with the People's Republic, which led to the severance of diplomatic relations with Taiwan. A particularly severe blow was the loss of long-time ally Panama (2017). This was followed by Burkina Faso (2018), El Salvador (2018) and the Solomon Islands as well as Kiribati (2019), so that the number of states that have diplomatic relations with the Republic of China shrunk to 15.

President Tsai with US Senator Marco Rubio (June 2016)

On the other hand, Taiwan also benefited from the increasing deterioration in relations between the United States and the People's Republic of China , which in early 2018 resulted in an open trade conflict between the two countries . In 2016, the newly elected but not yet in office US President Donald Trump had already congratulated the newly elected Tsai on their election victory in a phone call to the annoyance of the People's Republic and to the delight of the DPP politicians and dubbed her "President of Taiwan" in a tweet . Because Sino-American relations had sunk to a low point, the Taiwanese government was able to implement important arms deals with the USA. On August 21, 2019, President Trump approved an US $ 8 billion deal for the delivery of 66 new F-16C / D fighter jets. Taiwan had been trying to buy the fighter jets since 2006, which was rejected by both the Bush and Obama administrations out of concerns about relations with the People's Republic. In the previous month President Trump had the sale of 108 tanks of the type M1A2T Abrams and Stinger - aircraft missiles approved for a total of US $ 2.2 billion.

economy

Tsai at a meeting of the Asia Pacific Chamber of Commerce on November 24, 2016

Taiwan's average annual economic growth from 2014 to 2018 was 2.4% (2.46% was forecast for 2019), roughly in line with the long-term trend of gradually weakening growth rates (3.4% in the 2000s and 3.4% over the years 2000 to 2015 3.9% annual growth). Despite the political tensions, the People's Republic of China (2018: 28.8% of exports, 18.8% of imports) with Hong Kong (2018: 12.4% of exports, 0.5% of imports) remained the most important trading partner. A longer-term trend towards a decline in Taiwanese investments in mainland China was observed. While 84% of all Taiwanese foreign investments were in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong in 2010 at the time of the Ma presidency, this proportion was only 39% in 2019. The government under President Tsai had with the officially announced on September 5, 2016 New policy of southern exposure ( 新南向政策 , English New Southbound Policy ) tries to break away from economic dependence on China gradually by enhancing economic and cultural Relations with various states in South and Southeast Asia were established (official diplomatic relations also did not exist here). Foreign direct investment, trade, and the number of tourists and students at Taiwanese universities from or with these countries rose sharply as a result.

Candidate selection

Democratic Progressive Party

Lai Ching-te (William Lai), DPP candidate for vice-presidency

After the ruling DDP suffered a severe defeat in the regional and local elections on November 24, 2018, in which the mayors of the largest cities, the district councilors and numerous community leaders were newly elected, President Tsai resigned from her previous office as DPP chairman back. Political analysts were divided over the causes of the election defeat. Some believed that it was a rejection of the "confrontational" course towards the People's Republic of China, which others denied. Dissatisfaction with economic policy probably played a role. On the other hand, some radical pan-green supporters were probably dissatisfied because the government was too reluctant to implement the measures promised in the election campaign. However, Tsai managed to get out of the polls she had gotten into and was nominated as the top candidate for the next presidential election at the DPP's party conference on June 14, 2019. In view of the ongoing protests in Hong Kong , her anti-China attitude had earned her renewed points of sympathy. Former Prime Minister Lai Ching-te also applied for the nomination . Candidates were selected by means of a nationwide telephone survey in which 16,051 people took part. Tsai received 35.7% of the vote and Lai received 27.5%.

On November 17, 2019, Tsai announced that Lai Ching-te would be her fellow candidate for vice-presidency.

Kuomintang

Han Kuo-yu, Kaohsiung Mayor and KMT top candidate

Chang San-cheng, the KMT candidate for vice presidency

At the other large party, the Kuomintang (KMT), it was initially unclear who would enter the race, as there were several party sizes who made their ambitions clear. Eric Chu , KMT's top candidate in the 2016 election, entered his candidacy on December 26, 2018. On January 7, 2019, he was followed by Chang Ya-chung (張亞 中), a former diplomat and political scientist at the National University of Taiwan , and in the following months the former district administrator of Taipei County Chou Hsi-wei (周錫瑋), the entrepreneur and Foxconn founder Terry Gou and the newly elected Mayor of Kaohsiung in November 2018 , Han Kuo-yu . The rules for the selection of candidates were changed in such a way that the KMT party members no longer voted on the candidate as before, but that they were selected in a public opinion poll. Five independent polling institutes were commissioned to carry out the surveys. The results of the surveys were announced on July 15, 2019. The winner of the primary was Han Kuo-yu (44.8%), well ahead of his competitors Terry Gou (27.7%), Eric Chu (17.9%), Chou Hsi-wei (6.0%) and Chang Ya-chung (3.5%). On November 14, 2019, Han announced that the non-party Chang San-cheng , who had served as prime minister for a few months in 2016, would be the candidate for vice-presidency.

Other parties

Soong Chu-yu ( James Soong ), candidate of the Qinmindang

On November 13, 2019, 77-year-old James Soong , party leader of the small conservative Qinmindang , announced that he would run again. He chose Yu Hsiang (余 湘, Sandra Yu), a former advertising entrepreneur, as his vice-presidential candidate. The New Power Party (NPP) announced on September 24, 2019 that it would not nominate its own candidate, but would concentrate entirely on gaining votes in the election of the legislative yuan. The Formosa Alliance , an association of radical supporters of independence, established as a political party on July 20, 2019 , also declared that it did not want to nominate its own candidate.

The small conservative Xindang (“New Party”) named Yang Shih-kuang (楊世光) as their presidential candidate on July 3, 2019. On November 1, 2019, one day before the deadline, Yang announced his withdrawal from the application after failing to receive the required quorum of supporter signatures. Ko Wen-je , party leader of the Taiwan People's Party , which was founded in August 2019, said on September 18, 2019 that he would not run for the presidential election. There had previously been speculation as to whether he wanted to compete with Terry Gou. However, Gou had just waved it off.

Candidate Registration

In order to be allowed to vote, according to the election regulations, at least 280,384 valid supporter signatures had to be collected between September 19 and November 2, 2019, corresponding to 1.5% of the eligible voters at the last election in 2016. In addition, NT $ 1 million (almost € 30,000) had to be deposited as a deposit. The deposit was forfeited if the candidate in question did not collect at least half of the required signatures. The actual candidate registration with the election commission took place between November 11th and 22nd, 2019. Ultimately, only the three candidates from DPP, KMT and Qinmindang met the requirements.

Opinion polls and election campaigns

In the opinion polls, Han was initially well ahead of Tsai. Over time, however, there was a slow but continuous decline in his popularity curve and, in parallel, a corresponding increase in popularity for Tsai. There were two main reasons for this. On the one hand, the ongoing protests in Hong Kong benefited the incumbent president, who consistently took a stance critical of China and, for example, had rejected the extradition law from the start. This corresponded to the public majority opinion. Han, on the other hand, met with Hong Kong's Prime Minister Carrie Lam and other high-ranking mainland Chinese politicians at the height of the protests for discussions, which was largely not well received in Taiwan.

On the other hand, some conservative voters could not really make friends with the sometimes aimlessly acting candidate Han. There were discussions about his little property ownership and that of his wife. DPP politicians criticized the fact that Han presented himself as a "simple man from the people", which did not fit with his extensive ownership structure, and expressed the assumption that he acquired his real estate because of political ties to the KMT. In Kaohsiung, 300,000 people signed a petition to vote him out because he had not been active enough for the city as mayor.

Cumulative survey trend

Prior to the election, there were three key election programs of the three top candidates Tsai, Han and Soong on December 18, 25 and 27, 2019, which were televised. During the three programs, the candidates had the opportunity to present their political ideas and answer journalists' questions . However, there was no direct opportunity for interaction between the candidates. The main topics raised in these programs were the relationship with the People's Republic of China, including in particular the “anti-infiltration law” proposed by the Tsai government, which aims to prevent Chinese influence in Taiwan and was rejected by the other two candidates. In addition, questions of business literacy, energy policy and possible corruption were raised. Another televised event took place on December 29, 2019, allowing the three candidates to debate directly among themselves. Here, too, the relationship with the People's Republic of China was the main topic.

Results

Nationwide results

The counting of the votes from the 15,582 polling stations was completed around 10:30 p.m. local time (= 3:30 p.m. Central European Time ). The turnout was 74.9%. Of the 19,311,105 eligible voters, 14,464,571 cast their votes. 14,300,940 votes were valid and 163,631 invalid.

Majorities in the communities

Candidates (President and Vice)		Political party	be right	percent
	Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), Lai Ching-te (賴清德)	DPP	8,170,231	57.13%
	Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜), Chang San-cheng (張善政)	Kuomintang	5,522,119	38.61%
	James Soong (宋楚瑜), Yu Hsiang (余 湘)	Qinmindang	608,590	4.26%
total				100.0%
Source: Central Electoral Commission

Results by city and district

The following table shows the results by rural and urban districts.

Majorities in the cities and counties: Han / Chang (Kuomintang) Tsai / Lai (DPP)



Constituency	Registered voters	Soong • Yu		Han • Chang		Tsai • Lai		electoral participation
		be right	%	be right	%	be right	%
Taipei City (臺北市)	2,167,264	70,769	4.34%	685.830	42.01%	875.854	53.65%	76.31%
New Taipei City (新 北市)	3,321,459	112,620	4.57%	959.631	38.91%	1,393,936	56.52%	75.09%
Keelung City (基隆市)	311,801	11,878	5.25%	99,360	43.93%	114,966	50.82%	73.34%
Yilan County (宜蘭 縣)	375,608	10,739	3.91%	90.010	32.80%	173,657	63.28%	73.86%
Taoyuan City (桃園 市)	1,780,755	63.132	4.82%	529.749	40.40%	718.260	54.78%	74.42%
Hsinchu County (新竹 縣)	438.049	18,435	5.67%	154.224	47.45%	152.380	46.88%	75.11%
Hsinchu City (新竹市)	345,345	14,103	5.40%	102.725	39.34%	144.274	55.26%	76.60%
Miaoli County (苗栗 縣)	447.422	15,222	4.66%	164,345	50.32%	147.034	45.02%	73.80%
Taichung City (台中市)	2,251,064	84,800	4.99%	646.366	38.06%	967304	56.95%	76.36%
Changhua County (彰化 縣)	1,035,507	35,060	4.59%	291,835	38.24%	436,336	57.17%	74.70%
Nantou County (南投 縣)	413,485	13,315	4.45%	133,791	44.72%	152.046	50.83%	73.21%
Yunlin County (雲林 縣)	565.269	15,331	3.83%	138,341	34.60%	246.116	61.56%	71.65%
Chiayi County (嘉義 縣)	428,640	11,138	3.62%	98,810	32.16%	197,342	64.22%	72.56%
Chiayi City (嘉義 市)	215.055	6,204	3.84%	56,269	34.79%	99,265	61.37%	75.98%
Tainan City (台南市)	1,556,845	41,075	3.52%	339.702	29.10%	786.426	67.38%	75.77%
Kaohsiung City (高雄市)	2,299,558	55,309	3.14%	610,896	34.63%	1,097,621	62.23%	77.44%
Pingtung County (屏東 縣)	688.793	14,021	2.74%	179.353	35.10%	317,676	62.16%	74.92%
Taitung County (台東縣)	179,536	4.163	3.60%	67,413	58.28%	44.092	38.12%	65.05%
Hualien County (花蓮 縣)	269,558	6,869	3.71%	111,834	60.38%	66,509	35.91%	69.48%
Penghu Islands (澎湖縣)	88,432	2,583	5.07%	20,911	41.08%	27,410	53.85%	58.29%
Kinmen (金門 縣)	120,721	1,636	3.41%	35,948	74.83%	10,456	21.77%	40.14%
Matsu Islands (連江縣)	10,939	188	3.04%	4,776	77.16%	1,226	19.81%	57.34%
Source: Central Electoral Commission

Individual evidence

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