Trade conflict between the United States and the People's Republic of China

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Location of the United States and People's Republic of China
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United States People's Republic of China

The trade conflict between the United States and the People's Republic of China has been a trade dispute that has existed since the beginning of 2018. The subject of this economic policy debate is the introduction of new and the increase of existing import tariffs. In addition to the US trade deficit, the background to this is the dispute over the protection of intellectual property and forced technology transfers in China.

background

China USA trade
Comparison of imports (yellow) of Chinese products to the USA with US exports (blue) to China as well as the trade deficit (red) of the USA with China

The US trade deficit with China is likely to be largely responsible for the trade dispute . US President Donald Trump had already announced in the 2016 election campaign that he wanted to reduce this. In 2017, US exports of goods to China amounted to 130.4 billion dollars, while goods worth 505.6 billion US dollars were imported from China to the USA. The trade deficit continued to widen during the trade dispute, rising to a record $ 43.1 billion in October.

President Trump has accused China of stealing intellectual property many times. In 2017, the government in Washington launched an investigation into the matter. China has criticized this, but nevertheless promised to better protect intellectual property in the future.

Another important factor is likely to be the forced technology transfer in China , which has already been criticized . Foreign companies wishing to operate in the Chinese market often have to grant Chinese companies property and usage rights for their technology.

While China is accused of protectionism , an increasing opening of the Chinese market can be seen. In December 2017, import duties on 200 products were reduced from 17.3% to 7.7%. From July 1, 2018, new regulations came into force, which in the midst of the trade dispute reduced the import duties on 1,500 consumer goods from 16% to 7%.

course

US import tariffs on solar cells, panels and washing machines

The trade dispute was initiated by US President Donald Trump in January 2018 when he announced that he would impose punitive tariffs on solar cells and panels as well as washing machines . On January 22, 2018, the US government set punitive tariffs of 30% on solar cells and panels and 20% - 50% on washing machines. China then accused the US government of misusing protective measures. The EU had already imposed tariffs on Chinese solar modules in 2013 to save the domestic solar industry . In August 2018, the EU decided to lift these tariffs again.

US import and punitive tariffs on steel and aluminum

Container Ship

On March 8, 2018, the US government announced that it would impose worldwide import duties on steel and aluminum, which came into force on March 23, 2018. 25% import duty was due on steel and 10% on aluminum. This step was justified with the protection of domestic steel and aluminum production, which is crucial for national security . The two neighboring states Mexico and Canada as well as the EU states were temporarily exempt from punitive tariffs. Since June 1, 2018, the tariffs also apply to these. The reason and main target for these import duties is likely to be China, as enormous production capacities have been expanded there for years and the world market is being flooded with steel at dumping prices. China's steel production grew from 490 million tons in 2007 to 808 million tons in 2016.

US punitive tariffs on imports from China

On March 22, 2018, President Donald Trump signed a decree that provides for import tariffs of over 50 billion dollars. At the same time, he accused China of unfair trade practices and indicated that the aim was to use tariffs to combat the theft of intellectual property by China. According to the US government, the volume should roughly correspond to the amount of damage caused by theft of intellectual property by Chinese companies. President Trump's Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer should work out the tariffs within 60 days and provide a list of the products to be proven.

On April 3, 2018, the US administration published a proposal as a list of 1,333 products that are to be subject to customs duties. This list has been revised and split into two sub-lists, which comprise a total of 1102 products with a trading volume of 50 billion dollars. The list was published by the Trade Representative's Office on June 6, 2018. The first partial list contained a total of 818 products and came into effect on July 6, 2018. When importing these products, a surcharge of 25% is now due.

China responds to US import tariffs

Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Hamburg 2017

On April 2, 2018, in response to US tariffs on steel and aluminum, China imposed its own import tariffs on American goods totaling $ 3 billion. The punitive tariffs affect 128 US products, with tariffs increased by up to 25%. China also announced that it would complain to the World Trade Organization that it would be ready for dialogue but not fear a trade war. In addition, the government in Beijing admits that there are imbalances in terms of market access and equal opportunities for foreign investments. In addition, it was announced that the financial and insurance market should be opened up and that there was a willingness to lower tariffs on imported goods.

On April 4, 2018, China announced that it would impose punitive tariffs of 25% on an additional 106 products worth $ 50 billion. These are in response to the equally high punitive tariffs announced by the US government for the first time on March 22, 2018. The measures affected include soybeans , planes and cars. The tariffs are intended to target U.S. products made in rural areas. The reason for this is that a comparatively large number of Trump voters live in rural areas and the Republicans are dependent on their support in the congressional election in November 2018.

Beijing announced on June 16, 2018 that it would impose a total of punitive tariffs on 659 US products valued at 50 billion dollars. As of July 6, 2018, US $ 34 billion tariffs are expected to be levied on 545 agricultural, auto and seafood products. In another round, punitive tariffs are also to be levied on the remaining 114 US products, primarily chemicals, medical devices and energy products.

Export ban for US companies to ZTE

ZTE logo

On April 16, 2018, the U.S. Department of Commerce banned American companies from delivering goods to the Chinese wireless communications company ZTE . ZTE had originally violated Iran sanctions and pleaded guilty in court the previous year. ZTE had not complied with the requirements imposed by the US Department of Commerce, which is why a seven-year export ban for US companies was imposed on ZTE. ZTE then had to temporarily stop operations.

The ban was lifted again on July 13, 2018. It is assumed that the board of directors and management will be replaced within 30 days. There is also a $ 1 billion fine.

In a conference call with suppliers, a ZTE manager suspected that the export ban to ZTE was related to the trade dispute. It is not known whether and to what extent the embargo is related to this.

200 billion punitive tariffs

On September 17, 2018, the US government announced that it would impose further punitive tariffs from September 24, which will cover half of all goods imports from China. First, punitive tariffs of 10% should be due and increased to 25% from January 2019. In addition, Trump said that countermeasures by China would impose tariffs on another $ 267 billion in goods imports from China. It was also announced that negative effects for the USA are hardly measurable.

The 10 percent tariffs came into effect on September 24, 2018.

China reacted repeatedly to the punitive tariffs and announced tariffs on US imports with a volume of 60 billion dollars. These also came into force on September 24, 2018.

Following the G20 summit in Buenos Aires , the two governments met on December 2nd. The USA and China were able to reach a preliminary agreement. The increase in tariffs from 10 to 25 percent was suspended for 90 days. Shortly afterwards, Beijing announced that it would immediately implement trade facilitation for the US in return. The first measure was announced in December 2018: punitive tariffs on cars and auto parts of 35 percent will be suspended for three months from January.

On May 10, 2019, the United States implemented an increase in tariffs on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion from 10 to 25 percent. China again announced "necessary countermeasures". As a backlash, the People's Republic of China will increase tariffs on US goods worth $ 60 billion on June 1, 2019. Depending on the product, tariffs of 10, 20 or 25 percent apply.

Further punitive tariffs of $ 300 billion

In August 2019, the US government under Donald Trump announced a further 10 percent tariffs on Chinese goods worth $ 300 billion, which will come into effect in September 2019. This was later partially postponed to December 2019.

As a backlash, the Chinese government cut the country's currency, the renminbi, on August 5, 2019 . In another backlash, the Chinese government announced on August 22, 2019 that it would raise tariffs on additional US goods by five to ten percent on goods with a volume of 75 billion US dollars. The tariff increases will come into effect on September 15, 2019 and December 1, 2019.

On August 22, 2019, the US President Donald Trump calls on US companies to give up and relocate their production sites within the People's Republic of China.

Embassy closure 2020

In July 2020, the United States ordered the closure of the Consulate of the People's Republic of China in Houston . Employees were given 72 hours to leave the country. The measure was initially not justified, the facility was, according to a US Senator, as an espionage hub ("espionage hub"). The New York Times quoted experts who reported an increase in industrial espionage attributed to China in the USA in the summer of 2020, and the embassy in Houston had been the subject of investigations by the FBI several times . The move was taken to limit China's ability to act and to combat intellectual property theft. On the Chinese side, the action was seen primarily as a staging of President Donald Trump, who was trying to improve his domestic political reputation before the presidential elections in November.

Effects of the trade dispute

The effects of the trade dispute are extensive, and not only China and the USA are affected. Due to the globalization of supply chains, the trade dispute has an impact worldwide.

Global economic impact

The European Chamber of Commerce is critical of the trade war. Mats Harborn, who serves as President of the Chamber in Beijing, announced that the effects of the trade war on European companies in China were significant and mostly negative. A survey of European companies operating in China came to the conclusion that the trade dispute is also having serious consequences for European companies, as global supply chains are severely disrupted. 17 percent of those surveyed therefore intended to postpone their investment in China due to the trade dispute and every tenth company is considering relocating their production facilities to avoid punitive tariffs. The EU Chamber also announced that it shares the underlying criticism of the US government on some points, but that it regards the imposition of punitive tariffs as the wrong approach.

The companies affected also include German car manufacturers, as some vehicles are manufactured in the USA. Daimler and BMW , for example, delivered around 300,000 vehicles made in the United States to China in 2017.

Impact on the US economy

US economists criticize that import tariffs help neither US companies nor US workers. If America isolates itself, the middle class would lose 29 percent of its purchasing power, according to a professor of international trade at Harvard University . The domestic US economy could also suffer from the higher prices due to the import tariffs. Companies that rely on steel and aluminum would have to face other expenses such as B. Saving staff, reports Moody's economist Atsi Sheth. A professor at the Chinese European Business School in Shanghai predicts that economic relations between the EU and China will intensify and notes that the EU and the USA are competing in many areas and that America is thus becoming less competitive.

Many US companies reported suffering losses in their China business, which they attribute at least in part to the trade conflict. The automotive industry in particular suffered a sharp drop in sales: Ford reported a 30 percent decrease in 2018 from January to November compared to the previous year. GM reports a 15 percent drop in sales and Tesla cut the prices of their models due to the drop in sales. The investment bank Barclays lowered the forecast for the P / E ratios of the S&P 500 from 17 to 16, justifying this with a weakening of the global economy, which can be attributed to the trade dispute with China.

Apple also fears that the US trade dispute will target the Chinese government despite good contacts in Beijing. The risk of getting caught in the middle is not unfounded. Heise online speculates that Beijing could control Apple's suppliers more closely and thus slow down or even interrupt the supply chains, which could lead to delivery problems with Apple devices.

The Neue Zürcher Zeitung reported in October that the import tariffs for consumers were already being felt selectively. If the prices for energy sources and food were excluded, there would be the largest price increase within a year of 2.4 percent since September 2008. In contrast, wages rose by only 0.2 percent, which has already significantly reduced purchasing power. For example, prices for washing machines rose by around 20 percent shortly after the introduction of protective tariffs of 20 percent in February. Economists at UBS bank suspected additional tariffs of 10 percent on Chinese products with a trade value of $ 200 billion, as introduced on September 24, will increase inflation by about 15 basis points.

Average price increase for US consumers / companies
Capital goods
  
 + 2.0%
Consumer goods
  
 + 6.5%
Mixed goods
  
 + 4.3%
Intermediate products
  
 + 5.2%
after an increase in import duties to 25 percent

A study by the economists Zoller-Rydzek and Felbermayr published on November 22, 2018 comes to the conclusion that the American economy has so far benefited from the punitive tariffs against China. According to the study, the total benefit amounts to $ 18.4 billion. According to calculations by the study authors, 25 percent US import tariffs will increase prices by an average of 4.5 percent. According to the study, consumer goods are even expected to become 6.5 percent more expensive. The study shows that US households in the lower income bracket are particularly hard hit by the rise in prices, as they spend a larger part of their income on imports from China, which means that their real income falls disproportionately. The authors come to the conclusion that the additional customs revenue of $ 22.5 billion would be enough to compensate for price increases for all US consumers. The two economists estimate the cost of the trade war at 1.6 billion dollars, with a third at the expense of the USA and a large part of it being borne by Chinese producers. The customs revenue is also largely borne by Chinese companies. According to Zoller-Rydzek, the American economy benefits primarily from the fact that, through strategic selection of goods to be subject to import tariffs, they have been able to pass on to Chinese companies. He estimates that $ 18.9 billion in revenue will be passed on to the US from Chinese companies. In the long term, Chinese companies are likely to stop exporting to the US due to the rise in prices for the products concerned and lower profit margins. According to the study authors' expectations, US imports from China will decrease by 37 percent, which would reduce the trade deficit by 17 percent.

At the end of 2018, it was found that US exports to China had decreased by 34 percent, while US imports from China had hardly changed. The trade deficit rose to a ten-year high of $ 621 billion.

In a tweet on May 10, 2019, President Trump highlighted the positive aspects of the tariff war with China. There is no need to end the conflict quickly, as the US Treasury will be directly filled by the "massive payments" resulting from the 25 percent tariff on Chinese imports of $ 250 billion. These tariffs are "paid by China". However, on May 12, 2019, Trump's economic advisor Larry Kudlow admitted in an interview with Fox News Sunday that the cost of tariffs on imported Chinese goods would not be borne by China, but by US companies, which may pass these costs on to the Consumers would pass on. Because of this, both sides would be harmed.

Impact on China's Economy

The IMF has lowered China's growth forecast from 6.4 to 6.2 percent. Chinese suppliers and contract manufacturers from American corporations are working on contingency plans and are increasingly relocating their production to plants outside of China. According to a study published by the US Department of Commerce at the end of October, half of all companies surveyed plan to relocate production capacities to other countries. The reason for this are the existing tariffs and uncertainties about the further course of the trade dispute, with an escalation in the trade dispute being feared.

Panasonic is considering moving auto electronics production for the US market from its Chinese plants in Suzhou and Shenzhen to Thailand and Malaysia .

Among the companies is the Taiwanese contract manufacturer Pegatron . While Pegatron has relied on plants in China in the past and announced an expansion of the factories there a few months before the US election, they will now invest in new production facilities outside of China. The CFO Charles Lin announced that they plan to set up production facilities in up to three of the ASEAN countries. Despite the exception of the Apple Airpods from US import tariffs, the Apple supplier GoerTek is considering relocating part of its production to Vietnam. The Taiwanese group Cheng Uei, which produces the charging technology for the iPhones , is already looking for new production facilities in the ASEAN countries. Another Apple supplier named Delta Electronics has announced that it will take over a Thai partner company for two billion dollars to reduce uncertainty.

However, analysts see rising wages as another major reason behind the fact that companies are turning away from China as a production location. According to some analysts, the shift would only take place earlier than planned due to punitive tariffs. An analyst from the market research firm Canalys commented on the effects and suspects that the negative effects of the relocation of production will only be of a short-term nature anyway. He also suspected that in the long term this would even be in the interests of China, which would like to transform itself from an extended workbench in the western world into a location for technological innovations in the course of the "2020" goal.

The trade sanctions are unsettling investors: In mid-January 2019, shares were quoted on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, almost a third lower than a year earlier.

Products exempt from duties

Large technology groups such as Apple and Amazon benefit from exemptions for US import duties on Chinese products . Analysts see this as successful lobbying .

The Apple concern has attracted a lot of attention in the trade dispute, which has a large part of its products manufactured by contract manufacturers in Asia, especially in China. As early as June 2018 it was announced that iPhones and MacBooks would be exempt from import duties.

At the beginning of August 2018, a warning letter was filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission . This warns that punitive tariffs on Chinese imported products could significantly reduce Apple's profit prospects. There is also fear of a weakening of the competitive position in the US market. Trump responded with a tweet advising Apple to have the products manufactured in the United States.

In mid-August 2018, Apple CEO Tim Cook also met Donald Trump and his wife Melania for dinner.

On September 5, 2018, in the run-up to the customs announcement on September 17, Apple sent a letter to the US trade representative Robert Lightizer , because it was concerned about the competitiveness of the US. The US import tariffs would raise the prices of some of their consumer goods, some of which are manufactured in China. As a result, Apple will lose competitiveness compared to foreign competitors. In addition, the planned tariffs would weaken economic growth in the US, which would also reduce Apple's absolute contribution to the US economy. It is hoped these facts would be taken into account and more effective ways found that would make the US economy and US customers stronger and healthier than ever before. A list of affected products can be found in the appendix to the letter. The letter highlights the added value in the US, which will total 350 billion over the next five years.

The import tariffs that came into force on September 24, 2018, exempted imported electronics goods worth over 12 billion dollars from import tariffs. Among the exceptions are the Apple Watch , Airpods and headphones from the Beats subsidiary . However, competitors such as the manufacturer of fitness trackers Fitbit or the headphone manufacturer Plantronics are also profiteers .

The exemption for Apple devices, including iPhones and MacBooks, could be lifted in the future, the US president announced in an interview.

Conflict resolution

On January 15, 2020, the US administration announced the signing of a partial agreement with China. In Washington , US President Donald Trump and Chinese Vice Prime Minister Liu He signed a first trade agreement, the content of which states that China will increase its purchases of energy, industrial goods, agricultural products and services from the US. The aim of the whole is to reduce the trade deficit of the United States of America . Existing punitive tariffs, however, remained in force and could only be relaxed or dissolved through a second, future trade agreement.

Web links

Individual evidence

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