Presidential election in Bolivia 2019

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The presidential election in Bolivia 2019 took place on October 20, 2019. The incumbent President of Bolivia Evo Morales applied together with Vice President Álvaro García Linera for a fourth term as a candidate for the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) . The election was considered the first in a long time in which Morales was not already considered the clear winner in advance.

On October 25, 2019, Morales was officially declared the election winner. Since there had apparently been irregularities in the counting of votes, protests broke out in numerous cities for weeks. On November 10, Morales first announced new elections and finally his resignation.

Starting position

At the constitutional referendum in Bolivia on February 21, 2016, a constitutional amendment that would have allowed the president of the country to have more than two consecutive terms of office was rejected with 48.7% yes-votes and 51.3% no-votes. Nevertheless, Morales was allowed to stand again by the Bolivian Constitutional Court.

In the first ballot, according to Bolivian electoral law, a candidate needs 50% of the vote or a share of 40% of the vote if the lead over the second-placed candidate is at least ten percentage points, otherwise a runoff is required.

The parliamentary elections also took place at the same time.

Candidates

The moderately conservative ex-President Carlos Mesa was considered the strongest candidate out of a total of nine applicants alongside President Morales . The third strongest candidate according to surveys with up to 10% approval is the neoliberal Óscar Ortiz Antelo, for whom Rubén Costas applied as a candidate for the vice-presidency. Other candidates were the former Vice-President Víctor Hugo Cárdenas , who served under President Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada between 1993 and 1997 , and the conservative Korean-born television preacher Chi Hyun Chung , who stood for the Partido Demócrata Cristiano . The Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario sent Virginio Lama as their candidate.

  • Evo Morales

  • Carlos Mesa

  • Óscar Ortiz Antelo

  • Víctor Hugo Cárdenas

  • Chi Hyun Chung

Results and reactions

After 83.8% of the vote had been counted, a runoff between President Morales and the most promising opponent Mesa seemed likely: Morales had 45.3% of the vote at the time, while Mesa had 38.2%.

After the publication of this first interim result, the update of the results was interrupted for about 24 hours, which the opposition criticized immediately. When the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) published a new count of around 95% of the votes on Monday evening, October 21, the gap between Morales and Mesa of around ten percentage points was just big enough that Morales could have avoided a runoff. The Organization of American States (OAS) , which had sent numerous election observers to review the election process, then expressed "concerned and surprised about the drastic change in the results, which is difficult to justify". The first results would also have been in agreement with the only officially approved private by-election survey agency and with the statistical projections of the OAS. The OAS called on the Supreme Electoral Authority to "vigorously defend" the will of the Bolivian people and to adhere to the constitution in compliance with transparency.

As a result, protests and riots broke out in all major cities in Bolivia. In Potosí, protesters set fire to the regional office of the Supreme Electoral Authority, with two people jumping from the second floor of the building to get to safety. On Tuesday, October 22, the Vice President of the Supreme Electoral Authority, Antonio Costas, resigned on the grounds that "the thoughtless suspension of the public election results had discredited the entire electoral process and thus led to unnecessary turmoil". On Wednesday, October 23, civil society groups in several cities called for indefinite general strikes until the Supreme Electoral Authority either completely annulled the elections or allowed a runoff between Morales and Mesa. Amnesty International called on the incumbent Morales government to guarantee the right of the Bolivian people to protest peacefully.

Three days after the election, President Evo Morales declared himself the election winner, although at this point all votes had still not been counted and in the official results, after almost 97% of the votes were counted, the gap between Morales and Mesa fell back to below ten percentage points had what would have resulted in a runoff election. At the same time, Morales spoke of an ongoing coup of the "right with international support" and called for the mobilization of his supporters. The daily Página Siete , one of the most influential Bolivia, published information that the government was forcing state officials working in the ministries to protest on behalf of the government.

After the preliminary conclusion of the counts, Morales was declared the election winner by the electoral commission. He received 47.07% of the vote, while Mesa got 36.51% of the vote, according to this information. According to Bolivian suffrage, a runoff election would no longer be necessary, as Morales had more than 40% of the vote and was more than ten percentage points ahead of Mesa. The opposition does not recognize this result. The European Union also recommended that run-off elections be held. Morales declared himself the winner again at a press conference .

On October 25, the Supreme Electoral Court also declared Morales the election winner. On the same day, computer scientist Edgar Villegas, who, together with a team, had compared and evaluated the original election protocols with those officially published by the Supreme Electoral Court, presented evidence of widespread electoral fraud on the television channel Televisión Universitaria .

Shortly after the elections, the Committee for the Defense of Democracy was founded , chaired by civil rights activist Waldo Albarracín . This called for the cancellation of the elections and the establishment of a new supreme electoral court to hold impartial elections and called for further street protests against the election result.

During protests in early November, police units joined the demonstrators in the cities of Cochabamba , Sucre and Santa Cruz . In an emergency meeting, Morales spoke of a coup . Defense Minister Javier Zavaleta ruled out the military's use against the mutinous police officers for the time being.

Majorities by department
Official election result
Political party Abbreviation be right percent
Movimiento Al Socialismo-Instru-Mento Político Por La Soberanía De Los Pueblos MAS-IPSP 2,889,359 47.08%
Comunidad Ciudadana CC 2,240,920 36.51%
Partido Democrata Cristiano PDC 539.081 8.78%
Bolivia Dice No. 21 F 260.316 4.24%
Movimiento Tercer Sistema MTS 76,827 1.25%
Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucio-Nario MNR 42,334 0.69%
Partido De Accion Nacional Boliviano PAN-BOL 39,826 0.65%
Unidad Civica Solidaridad UCS 25,283 0.41%
Frente Para La Victoria FPV 23,725 0.39%
Registered voters 7,315,364 100.00%
Votes cast 6,460,515 88.31%
Valid votes 6,137,671 95.00%
Blank ballot papers 93.507 1.45%
Invalid votes 229,337 3.55%

Morales' resignation and going into exile

On November 10th, the OAS published a report by its election observers, in which it recommended the cancellation of the October 20th election due to serious irregularities. After the military withdrew their support, Morales announced new elections on the same day.

In places where the opposition to Morales was strongest, opposition supporters and police officers burned the Wiphala plurinational flag , symbolizing indigenous roots and diversity. Police cut them off their uniforms and filmed themselves. During the Morales government, the indigenous multicolored wiphala became the national flag alongside the tricolor and 36 native languages ​​became official national languages ​​alongside Spanish . These symbolic acts quickly sparked a wave of violence. Finally, on the evening of November 10, Morales resigned as president under pressure from the military. Vice-President Álvaro García Linera and Parliament President Adriana Salvatierra also announced their resignations.

A total of three people were killed in the protests up to November 10th, around 200 were injured, and the police remained in their barracks on November 10th. The night after Morale's resignation, there were numerous riots in La Paz and El Alto , during which buses were set on fire and houses were looted and set on fire. In the days that followed, there were violent clashes by supporters of the former president, injuring another 20 people.

Mexico not only offered political asylum to the 20 government officials and MPs who had fled to the Mexican embassy, ​​but also to Morales. Morales accepted the offer and was evacuated from the Mexican military machine. The Mexican Air Force flew him and Vice President García Linera from Chimoré in the department of Cochabamba to Mexico City on November 12th.

Since all constitutionally provided successors to the presidency had also resigned with Morales, the previous second vice-president of the Senate, Jeanine Áñez , declared herself interim president on November 12th . Although the MAS boycotted the parliamentary session at which Áñez was to be officially appointed, the Constitutional Court subsequently approved their car proclamation , pointing out the need for a functioning executive . Áñez now has to organize new elections within 90 days.

On November 14th, Áñez passed a decree ordering the use of the military against protests and protecting security forces from justice. On 15./16. In November the violence escalated, especially in the central Bolivian department of Cochabamba , a rural region with a high proportion of indigenous people , where Morales enjoys great support. Union members and supporters of Morales tried to march through the cities of Cochabamba and Sacaba to the seat of government in La Paz to show their support for Morales' return. There were bloody clashes with the police and the military. In Cochabamba, the military shot dead 9 Morales supporters and an additional 122 people were injured. Nelson Cox, the ombudsman for the city of Cochabamba, confirmed that the police and the military were responsible for the shooting of the demonstrators. In La Paz and the sister city of El Alto , supporters of Morales set up road blockades and brought traffic to a standstill.

The Áñez government defended the decree on November 16. The new minister of the presidential office, Jerjes Justiniano, described the measure as an instrument "to contribute to social peace". From exile in Mexico, Morales wrote the decree "a license to massacre the people " and asked Pope Francis , the UN and European countries to mediate between the political camps in Bolivia. UN Secretary General António Guterres sent Jean Arnault , who had already mediated the peace process in Colombia, as a special envoy to Bolivia. He met Áñez on November 16 and discussed the political transition in Bolivia with her.

Reporters Without Borders said that since the election and the subsequent overthrow of President Morales, journalists have been attacked and the security of correspondents in Bolivia has been threatened. The journalists' organization has documented around 30 attacks on journalists since election Sunday, including physical attacks, theft of equipment and arson attacks on radio and television stations. Journalists fled to the Argentine embassy.

A group of economists and statisticians, including Mark Weisbrot , Stephanie Kelton , Ha-Joon Chang and Jayati Ghosh , signed an open letter in December 2019 calling on the OAS to retract their "misleading statements" about the presidential election, which became political Contributed to the conflict. It is easy to use publicly available election data to show that the change in Morales' leadership was neither “drastic” nor “difficult to explain”.

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ Ernesto Londoño: Bolivia's Evo Morales Faces Tightest Race of His Life. In: The New York Times. October 20, 2019, accessed October 20, 2019 .
  2. ^ Christoph Titz: People refused Morales' option for a fourth term. In: Spiegel Online. February 24, 2016, accessed October 20, 2019 .
  3. ↑ Bolivia: Constitutional Court allows Morales to run again. In: zeit.de. November 29, 2017. Retrieved October 20, 2019 .
  4. ↑ GACETA OFICIAL DE BOLIVIA 1 LEY Nº 026 LEY DE 30 DE JUNIO DE 2010. (PDF; 8.66 MB) In: pdba.georgetown.edu. June 30, 2010, Retrieved October 20, 2019 (Spanish).
  5. ↑ Franziska Pröll: Evo Morales: The President's double standards. In: zeit.de. October 20, 2019, accessed October 20, 2019 .
  6. ↑ a b c Bolivia's President Morales is aiming for a fourth term. In: orf.at. October 20, 2019, accessed October 20, 2019 .
  7. ↑ Elections in Bolivia - Evo Morales is aiming for a fourth term. In: srf.ch. October 20, 2019, accessed October 20, 2019 .
  8. ↑ Evo Morales wants to “keep it up” in Bolivia. In: derstandard.at. October 18, 2019, accessed October 20, 2019 .
  9. ^ Pastor of S. Korean descent to run for president in Bolivia. In: donga.com. August 30, 2019, accessed October 20, 2019 .
  10. ^ Raúl Peñaranda U .: Morales or Mesa? Either Way, Bolivia Faces Tough Questions. In: americasquarterly.org. October 9, 2019, accessed October 20, 2019 .
  11. ↑ Poll confirms Evo Morales is leading voting intention. In: plenglish.com. September 9, 2019, accessed October 20, 2019 (UK English).
  12. ^ Transmisión Rápida y Segura de Actas Resultados Preliminares de Actas en Recinto. In: trep.oep.org.bo. Retrieved October 21, 2019 (Spanish).
  13. ↑ La Misión de Observación Electoral de la Organización de los Estados Americanos (OEA) en #Bolivia llama… In: twitter.com . Organización de los Estados Americanos, October 21, 2019 (Spanish).
  14. ↑ Anger mounts in Bolivia over poll result confusion. In: bbc.com. October 22, 2019, Retrieved October 22, 2019 (UK English).
  15. ↑ Anthony Faiola: Protests, arson, looting in Bolivia as opponents accuse Evo Morales of trying to steal election. In: washingtonpost.com. October 23, 2019, accessed October 23, 2019 .
  16. ↑ Bolivia: Authorities must respect the right to peaceful protest. In: amnesty.org. October 23, 2019. Retrieved October 23, 2019 (UK English).
  17. ↑ Carlos Corz: Al 96.78% del computo oficial, Morales LOGRA el 46.49% y Mesa 37.01%. In: la-razon.com. October 23, 2019, accessed October 23, 2019 (Spanish).
  18. ↑ Baldwin Montero: Evo Morales denuncia que hay un golpe en marcha y llama a defender la democracia. In: la-razon.com. October 23, 2019, accessed October 23, 2019 (Spanish).
  19. ↑ Denuncian que obligan a funcionarios a defender a Evo. In: paginasiete.bo. October 23, 2019, accessed October 23, 2019 (Spanish).
  20. ↑ Bolivia: Election Commission confirms Morales victory. In: orf.at. October 25, 2019, accessed October 25, 2019 .
  21. ^ First round win for Morales in presidential election in Bolivia - EU calls for runoff. In: derstandard.at. October 25, 2019, accessed October 25, 2019 .
  22. ↑ Christina Felschen: Bolivia: Evo Morales wins election in Bolivia. In: zeit.de. October 25, 2019, accessed October 25, 2019 .
  23. ↑ Bolivia's Morales declares himself outright winner of presidential poll but opponents allege vote fraud. In: japantimes.co.jp. October 25, 2019, accessed October 25, 2019 .
  24. ↑ Bolivia: Evo Morales Ayma Da Conferencia de prensa sobre las elecciones. In: Noticias Bolivia on Youtube. October 24, 2019, accessed October 25, 2019 (Spanish).
  25. ↑ Bolivia: Morales declared the winner. In: orf.at . October 26, 2019, accessed October 26, 2019.
  26. ^ Resistance against Morales is forming in Bolivia. In: orf.at. October 27, 2019, accessed October 28, 2019 .
  27. ↑ Bolivia: Police in three cities join the protest. In: orf.at. November 9, 2019, accessed November 9, 2019 .
  28. ↑ PUBLICACIÓN DE RESULTADOS NACIONALESELECCIONES GENERALES 2019. (pdf) Órgano Electoral Plurinacional de Bolivia, accessed on May 2, 2020 (Spanish).
  29. ↑ Electoral integrity analysis - General Elections in the Plurinational State of Bolivia, October 20, 2019. Preliminary findings: Report to the General Secretariat (PDF), accessed November 12, 2019.
  30. ↑ a b c Bolivia's President Evo Morales resigns after even the police and the military turn away from him. In: nzz.ch . November 11, 2019, accessed November 11, 2019.
  31. ^ President Morales announces new elections in Bolivia. In: tagesschau.de. November 10, 2019, accessed November 10, 2019 .
  32. ↑ a b Morales is planning new elections due to protests. In: derStandard.at. November 10, 2019, accessed November 10, 2019 .
  33. ↑ Nick Estes: What the coup against Evo Morales means for indigenous people like me , America 21, 16 November 2019
  34. ↑ https://www.domradio.de/themen/kirche-und-politik/2019-11-15/bolivien-befrieden-morales-bittet-papst-franziskus-um-vermittlung
  35. ↑ Bolivian President Evo Morales resigns from the election protests. In: bbc.com . November 11, 2019, accessed November 11, 2019.
  36. ↑ "The Bolivians had the ghost of Venezuela in mind" , NZZ, November 11, 2019
  37. ↑ a b Further unrest in Bolivia. In: orf.at . November 13, 2019, accessed November 13, 2019.
  38. ↑ a b c Senator Jeanine Áñez declares herself interim president of Bolivia. In: derstandard.at . November 13, 2019, accessed November 13, 2019.
  39. ^ Morales parte rumbo a México, donde le dieron asilo
  40. ^ Massacre in Cochabamba: Anti-Indigenous Violence Escalates as Mass Protests Denounce Coup in Bolivia
  41. ↑ Again dead and injured during protests in Bolivia
  42. ↑ Morales calls on Pope, UN and Europe to mediate in Bolivia
  43. ↑ Whoever shoots will not be punished
  44. ↑ Caos en Bolivia: los medios de comunicación, blanco de agresiones y desamparados , rsf.org, 13 November 2019
  45. ↑ Periodistas argentinos refugiados en la embajada Argentina , America TV, November 14, 2019
  46. ↑ https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/02/the-oas-has-to-answer-for-its-role-in-the-bolivian-coup