Risk perception

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Risk perception ( english risk perception ) is the perception of risk by individuals , companies or the government with its subdivisions (so-called. Economic entities ), which they themselves, their health , their wealth and their environment are or may be exposed. The perception of the same risk can differ from one another by several economic agents.

General

Economic subjects are threatened by a wide variety of risks, so that risk perception is of great importance for people as (potential) risk bearers . Companies operate risk management in order to identify and manage the risks; Other economic agents can engage in similar activities. The analysis of risk perception has therefore established itself in the social sciences as part of hazard and risk research . The aim of this research is to explain how people assess dangers to health and property (such as accidents , diseases or natural disasters ) and why these assessments can vary widely. Nuclear power in particular has shown in controversial discussions how different risk perception can be; this was the birth of research into risk perception. The legal requirement to shut down all existing nuclear power plants in Germany by December 31, 2022 ( Section 7 (1a ) Atomic Energy Act ) is based on the view that the risk perception of nuclear energy in the German population has changed significantly as a result of the Fukushima nuclear disaster .

Risk perception only affects a sub-area of ​​general human perception. The latter is characterized in that, due to the sensory benefits of the sense organs , the sense data are perceived. It can be observed that the same sensory data are perceived differently by several people. If the sensory data to be perceived consist exclusively of risks, risk takers often tend to overestimate relatively insignificant risks and underestimate or even negate high risks. It can also be observed that the same risk is assessed differently by several risk takers. This is due to the subjective assessment of the probability of occurrence and possible damaging event by laypeople, which systematically deviates from objective risk analyzes and risk assessments by specialists .

Definitions

The relatively young research area of ​​risk perception is already evident in the large number of definitions of this term. When it comes to risk perception in the context of consumer behavior , consumers are faced with the uncertainty that they cannot foresee the consequences of their purchase decision . For Bernd Rohrmann, risk perception is the human assessment and assessment of dangers to which people, their property or their surroundings are or could be exposed. In this definition, the risk perception as a pure identification of risks is blurred with the later stages of risk assessment and risk assessment . Risk perception is related to thinking, belief, and constructs. “Risk perception describes the reception and processing of direct sensory perceptions or information relating to risks or dangers”. Risk perception is the “knowledge of the possibility of future damage that can occur in the course of certain actions.” The latter definition overlooks the fact that risks can arise even without actions by the risk bearer (natural disasters).

Knowledge differences and risk attitude

Of course, one cannot assume that laypeople have the knowledge that is necessary to identify risks with scientific precision; therefore it is not surprising that laypeople and experts differ considerably in their risk assessment. Even experts perceive the same risk differently among each other. They weight a risk (initially) according to the severity of the damage to be expected and (often) describe it with an average loss expectation per unit of time and space, whereas laypeople perceive risks as a complex, multi-dimensional phenomenon in which the loss expectations estimated by themselves ( let alone the statistically determined loss expectation) only play a subordinate role.

The decisive factor for laypeople and experts is their risk attitude as the subjective willingness of a decision maker when choosing an alternative course of action. Risk perception is influenced by risk attitudes. The risk averse perceives potential risks more easily than the risk-averse , for whom the risk only begins when the risks are greater ( selective perception ). A false perception of risk is when there is a positive or negative perception deviation from the objective risk. With a positive perception deviation, the risk is overestimated, with a negative one, it is underestimated.

species

According to Paul Slovic , risk perceptions can be divided into three categories:

Risks are only consciously accepted if the risk-benefit assessment is positive (people fly in an airplane, although it could crash).

Risk factors

The human risk perception is influenced by the following factors:

  • Quantitative risk factors are the probability of occurrence of risks and their potential amount of damage ;
  • Qualitative risk factors are characterized by the type of voluntariness, controllability, own or third-party responsibility, degree of awareness, avoidability, temporal occurrence of risk (sudden or delayed);
  • socio-demographic risk factors : age , marital status , people in the household, number of children;
  • socio-economic risk factors : education , occupation , income ;
  • Health determinants : health risk;
  • psychographic risk factors reflect the personality of the risk taker;
  • social risk factors are family , friends , social milieu ;
  • Sociocultural risk factors influence the perception of risk through values , social norms , social influences and cultural identity .

They all influence risk perception in isolation or in combination. This often depends on age, because young people tend to perceive fewer risks than older people.

Examples

volcano

The Scientific Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) has in 1999, the different risk perception based on a volcano described. A German volcanologist and a Javanese stand in front of the Merapi volcano on Java . The scientist sees a volcano that shows traces of earlier eruptions through chemical-physical processes and can erupt again at any time. He also wonders how an early warning system can protect the affected population. The Javanese, on the other hand, sees in the mountain with the volcanic crater a manifestation of the power of unearthly beings and thus a sanctuary as a connection between the spirit realm and humans. The volcano erupts whenever a political leader breaks the laws established by the spirit world.

Investors

The risk perception of an investor encompasses all activities in order to observe the markets ( financial market ), financial products and providers that are relevant to him . These data are compared and supplemented with motives, investment goals , sentiments and feelings, so that the same type of investment is assessed differently by several investors. The different risk attitudes of investors are reflected in their assignment to different risk classes .

insurance

A risk taker is only prepared to insure a risk if he has perceived a risk as a problem, if the possibility of insurance is known, the insurance is accepted as a problem solution and concrete insurance cover is known. It should be noted that certain purchases (such as a motor vehicle ) are associated with the conclusion of compulsory insurance ( motor vehicle liability insurance ).

Risk management

If risks are perceived, in the next stage a risk identification , then a risk analysis , risk quantification , risk aggregation , risk assessment and finally a risk assessment must be carried out. Then the risk taker can decide whether and to what extent to deal with the risk . Depending on the type of risk, this can be done through risk avoidance , risk reduction , risk diversification , risk transfer (problem of insurability ) or risk prevention . If he does not deal with risks, he has to bear the damage himself, if necessary risk his health or even put his life on the line ( high-risk athletes ).

literature

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ Nikolaus Raupp, The decision-making behavior of Japanese venture capital managers under the influence of risk perception in conjunction with other factors , 2012, p. 27
  2. ↑ Sheldon Krimsky / Dominic Golding, Social Theories of Risk , 1992, p. 5
  3. ↑ Christoph Wehner, Die Versicherung der Atomgefahr , 2017, p. 10
  4. ↑ Reinhold Bergler, Psychologie der Hygiene , 2009, p. 51 f.
  5. ↑ Tina Plapp, Perception of Risks from Natural Disasters , 2004, p. 18
  6. ^ Leon G Schiffmann / Leslie Lazar Kanuk, Consumer Behavior , 1997, p. 183
  7. ↑ Bernd Rohrmann / Ortwin Renn (eds.), Cross Cultural Risk Perception , 2000, p. 14 f.
  8. ^ Lennart Sjöberg, The Methodology of Risk Perception Research , in: Quality and Quantity 34, 2000, p. 408
  9. ↑ Risk Commission (Ed.), Final Report of the Risk Commission , 2003, p. 47
  10. ↑ Thomas Asche, Das Sicherheitsbehavior von Konsumenten , 1990, p. 37
  11. ↑ Peter Wiedemann, precautionary principle and fear of risk , 2010, p. 75
  12. ↑ Risk Commission (Ed.), Final Report of the Risk Commission , 2003, p. 47
  13. ↑ Heinz-Kurt Wahren, Investor Psychology , 2009, p. 100
  14. ↑ Thomas Asche, Das Sicherheitsbehavior von Konsumenten , 1990, p. 38
  15. ^ Paul Slovic / Nancy Kraus / Henner Lappe / Heinz Letzel / Torbjorn Malmfors, Risk perception of prescription drugs , in: Canadian Journal of Public Health 82, 1989, pp. 74 ff
  16. ↑ Helmut Jungermann / Paul Slovic, Characteristics of individual risk perception , in: Wolfgang Krohn / Georg Krücken (Eds.), Riskante Technologies, 1993, p. 97
  17. ↑ Scientific Advisory Council of the Federal Government on Global Change (WBGU), Welt im Wandel: Strategies for Coping with Global Environmental Risks , 1999, p. 171
  18. ↑ Heinz-Kurt Wahren, Investor Psychology , 2009, p. 99 f.
  19. ↑ Heinz-Kurt Wahren, Investor Psychology , 2009, p. 99
  20. ↑ Tanja Hujber, Advertising from Insurance Companies , 2005, p. 150 f.