Helicopter money

from Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Helicopter money is an expansion of the money supply through money creation , in which the newly created central bank money is paid out directly to the state or citizens. Helicopter money is an extreme form of expansionary monetary policy . The aim of this monetary policy is to stimulate the real economy through increased consumer spending , to achieve a targeted inflation target or to avoid or reduce deflation . Helicopter money has historical forerunners, some of which have also been put into practice.

The concept has been discussed since 2015 as an extension of previous monetary policy measures such as quantitative easing and negative interest rates , which did not meet economic policy expectations.

Forms of transfer

Central bank money generated through money creation can be transferred directly to citizens. Another option is for governments to use the money they generate to lower taxes or to credit citizens with taxes. A reduction in health insurance premiums is also conceivable. Instead of directly to the citizens, the central banks can also transfer the money to the respective state for the budget. This would then invest the money in roads or other large projects and thus stimulate the economy. Direct transfer to citizens would solve the problem of how information about millions of bank accounts can be recorded centrally and how citizens without a current account can be taken into account.

In the British daily The Guardian it was suggested that measures against climate change should be financed through interest-free climate bonds with a term of 100 years. The central bank would buy these bonds from the UN Green Climate Fund and thus provide it with practically non-repayable money.

Difference from other concepts

Quantitative easing

The transfer of central money to citizens or the state in the case of helicopter money differs from quantitative easing in that the helicopter money is not paid out to the banks in exchange for bonds, as is the case with quantitative easing, but directly and directly to the citizen or the state budget. The central bank's balance sheet is therefore not increased in terms of helicopter money . One speaks therefore of “debt-free” payments by the central bank.

In the case of quantitative easing, on the other hand, a security moves from the commercial bank to the central bank in exchange for the money created by the central bank and made available to the bank. The balance sheet of the central bank is thus increased by the amount spent, on the one hand on the liabilities side for the money spent and on the other hand for the corresponding received equivalent value of the securities on the assets side .

Quantitative easing for the people

The central banks pay the PQE the newly created money is not directly to the citizens, but to finance the state budget or initiated by the government investment. According to this, PQE restricts the independence of the central banks from economic policy decisions, in that the central banks realize budgetary goals of the state.

Monetization of national debt

In monetizing public debt, the government instructs the central bank to increase the supply of money by the amount necessary to repay debt. In doing so, the government is accepting damaging inflation, which lowers public confidence and destroys assets.

“Helicopter money” in Friedman's 1969 thought experiment

The term "helicopter money" was first used in 1969 by Milton Friedman . In his model thought experiment to illustrate the basic principles of his monetary theory of money, Milton Friedman asked what would happen if a central bank loaded the money it had printed into a helicopter and dropped it over the citizens of a model community:

Milton Friedman , 2004

“Let's assume that one day a helicopter will fly over this community, dropping an additional $ 1,000 in banknotes, which of course will be hastily collected by the residents. Let us further assume that everyone is convinced that this is a one-off event that will never be repeated. "

In contrast to the widespread interpretations, this example and its effect in Friedman only illustrates the neutrality of the monetary base ( M2 ), i.e. precisely no incentive function for consumption.

Friedman also assumed in his example that everyone in this model community now had twice as much money as before and could keep it forever; he also assumed full employment and capacity utilization and a zero interest rate policy from the central bank .

According to Friedman's example, doubling the money supply would only result in a doubling of prices, i.e. an exactly calculable inflation controlled by the central bank, nothing more. Friedman thus illustrated the main principles of his monetary theory, the most important point of which is Friedman's theory of quantity : There is a stable level of money supply and prices. According to his theory, the money supply has no influence on the real economy, since, for example, even if prices double, the amount of goods remains the same.

The concept of helicopter money is here an academic thought experiment that, like a parable, serves to explain the functioning of his monetary theory of money . Friedman's didactic example was later reinterpreted into a metaphor for a targeted expansion of the money supply without interest or credit through transfer payments to citizens to stimulate demand or to increase inflation.

Helicopter money compared to Friedmann's model - CEPR studies

In their " Primer " on helicopter money, the textbook authors Stephen Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz from CEPR work out that helicopter money is a form of expansive fiscal policy based on central bank money , but not monetary policy as Friedmann conceived.

  • Monetary policy can only control interest rates, but not the monetary base . This is determined by the demand for money by consumers and banks. The central bank could not increase the monetary base of its own accord.
  • Today's central banks pay interest on bank deposits in order to control the level of interest rates in the economy.

If you combine the government budget and the Bundesbank budget into a state balance sheet, helicopter money appears as a fiscal extension that is financed by central bank money and not by securities.

Step 1: The treasury issues a treasury certificate for the central bank and receives a credit for it. For an exemplary $ 100 that the state hands over to the Bundesbank in the form of a Treasury Note, the state budget receives $ 100 from the bank. There is no change in the overall national balance sheet.

Step 2: The Treasury spends the money from its account, shifting the central bank's debt to the reserves of the commercial banks. This also leads to an increase in the expected tax revenue as an investment by the Treasury. The 100 dollars are distributed to citizens by the tax authorities of the state, for example transferred to their accounts, or spent on infrastructure measures or a tax refund. The 100 dollars go from the government account to the account of a commercial bank.

Step 3: The commercial banks do not want any additional reserves and exchange them for treasury bonds. In doing so, they reduce central bank investments and central bank debt. The central bank favors this change by adjusting the interest rate.

Step 4: As a result, the Treasury's issuance of Treasury bonds increases, but less so does the amount of central bank money.

Seen in this way, the helicopter money is gradually disappearing from the balance sheet.

The authors conclude that when interest rates are low, helicopter money is just as effective as any government bond-financed tax cut or infrastructure investment in combination with quantitative easing.

history

Even before the discussion about “helicopter money”, Major Douglas , the Social Credit Movement and Silvio Gesell expressed ideas of a direct transfer payment to citizens or an expansion of the money supply for state financing in his free economics . These concepts have been discredited , in part, because of their alleged links or correspondences with the monetary practices of socialist or fascist systems of government.

The successful economic policy of Korekiyo Takahashi , the "Japanese Keynes", during the world economic crisis was based on monetary state financing to stimulate the economy and devalue the external value of the currency. Takahashi managed to cope with the severe depression of Japan in the 1930s by decoupling the currency from the gold standard and financing government spending directly without any significant inflationary effect.

John Maynard Keynes , in his General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, proposed that money should be buried in unused mines where it could be dug up by the unemployed. The effect would be the same as an increase in gold production in a gold mine.

Anatole Kaletsky described the issue of monetary gifts to the citizens as “quantitative easing for the people”, a concept that in 2014 was also supported by John Muellbauer.

To combat the financial crisis from 2007 and the subsequent euro crisis , many central banks switched to a highly expansive monetary policy. When these measures did not have the desired stimulating effect on the economy , various central banks of rich countries started so-called quantitative easing programs (or QE, from English quantitative easing ) and bought up private bonds and / or government bonds on a large scale . Since even these measures did not yet bring the desired economic upturn, several central banks introduced negative interest rates . The issue of helicopter money would be a further measure after the admitted failure of all measures taken so far.

The introduction of direct transfer of central money was most likely recommended and expected for Japan.

In February 2020, the Chinese government announced that it would pay the permanent residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region helicopter money to support the financially weakened metropolis after months of protests and the outbreak of the coronavirus . With reference to the budget announcement, approximately 1,180 euros (10,000 HK dollars) per person is provided.

In March 2020, the US Senate approved an aid package in the wake of the Corona crisis, which includes "checks of $ 1200 for adult US citizens". The package also has to be confirmed in the House of Representatives. It is to be financed at least partially through new debts.

legal framework

The Neue Zürcher Zeitung described direct transfer payments of central bank money as illegal in most countries. “Anyone who dismisses the idea as a pipe dream, underestimates the flexibility of laws and forgets that ten years ago the idea of negative interest rates was at best a joke on the edge of a cold buffet. Helicopter money, already actively promoted by the Financial Times , should no longer appear to some monetary politicians as just a surreal thought experiment ”.

In Die Zeit it was shown that the current EU regulations do not allow helicopter money. This concerns the monetary state financing prohibited in Art. 123 (1) of the EU Treaty of Lisbon (ex-Art. 101 EC Treaty) . It is banned because it contributes to inflation.

However, a direct transfer of money from the central bank to citizens is not explicitly prohibited. Experts such as Jens Weidmann , however, judge this to be an overstepping of competencies on the part of the central bank, since it is not allowed to pursue economic policy. In addition, according to Art. 218 TEU, a two-thirds majority in the Council would be necessary.

Study by Deutsche Bank

In a study, a team of experts from Deutsche Bank examined the feasibility and the likely effects of introducing direct central money transfers. In the historical part of the study it is shown that the monetary state financing, ie the financing of state expenditures by "money printing", has been a frequent process in history. The inflation that was partially triggered was also often the intended or accepted effect of increasing the money supply. The aims were, for example, the reduction of debts, the proof of insolvency in the face of reparation claims (Weimar Republic), the financing of war costs ( First World War and Second World War ) and the stimulation of the economy through increased government spending ( Japan 1930s).

The economists at Deutsche Bank consider the concept to be an effective tool in the face of recession and deflation, more effective than the monetary policy instruments previously used. Despite the legal barriers, they see backdoors for "helicopter money ": The European Central Bank could, for example, buy extremely long-term bonds from public lenders like the European Investment Bank (EIB) at zero interest rates to finance public investments. In addition, direct money transfers to citizens and companies are possible while bypassing the state. “Ironically,” according to the study, “this particularly unconventional variant of helicopter money is easier to legally enforce”.

ING survey October 2016

In October 2016, the result of an Internet survey by Ipsos on behalf of ING was published among around 12,000 consumers in 12 European countries. The aim was to determine how consumers would spend additional transferred money. The assumption was that they would receive 200 euros every month for a year into their account.

According to the Handelsblatt, the result was sobering: Most of the respondents (52%) would rather save their money, only 26% would spend the most, 15% would pay off debts. Ian Bright, ING economist, therefore considers the measure to be ineffective. He thinks it makes more sense to finance government infrastructure spending, tax cuts or reduce national debt than pay them directly to citizens. However, the European Central Bank is not allowed to fund governments.

The ING reports also show that the majority of people in Europe approve of the concept (54%, in Germany 48%, Italy 69%). However, most of the respondents doubted that the European Central Bank could achieve more growth and inflation. In Germany this would be just 31% (growth) and 35% (inflation). In contrast, 39% assume that helicopter money would have no effect on economic development. On average in the euro zone, this ratio is much more hopeful than in Germany at 42% to 32%. Older people were more critical of the survey overall; the most open-minded of all nationalities were Italians.

The effect of the measure is estimated at 2% of GDP, using 8% of GDP to finance the helicopter money (816 billion euros in one year).

Media attention

The term helicopter money first appeared in the media in 2002 after the then governor of the US Federal Reserve , Ben Bernanke , recommended helicopter money to Japan in an address to combat its tough deflation.

Ben Bernanke

The idea was discussed in a broader public from 2012, when it became clear that the economy was stagnating and that the economy could not be started.

Over 1.5 trillion. Euros were pumped into the money market through quantitative easing, but the newly created money was only saved, not spent. The money did not seep into the real economy as intended, there was neither more consumption nor increased investment. The measures are fizzling out in the banks and financial markets and creating a financial bubble. The world shows in an infographic that the inflation rate in the euro zone remains close to 0, although the central bank's total assets are increasing extremely.

In March 2015, 19 university professors, including many economists, signed a letter and published it in the Financial Times. Among the professors were Robert Skidelsky , David Graeber , Anne Pettifor, Richard A. Werner , Guy Standing, Joseph Huber , Helge Peukert , Steve Keen and Nigel Dodd. The facts clearly show, they wrote, that the previous measures of “quantitative easing” are not a suitable means for increasing employment or GDP. The measures only served the wealthy who benefited from assets. Traditional monetary policy is no longer effective. Newly created money must be "injected" directly into the economy.

“Instead of investing in the financial markets, the new central bank money should better be used for government spending (for example, for investments in infrastructure); alternatively, one could transfer 175 euros per month to each EU citizen for 19 months, money that could be used for debt repayment or consumption. By directly stimulating spending and employment, each of these avenues would contribute more to the achievement of the ECB's objectives than conventional QE. "

During a press conference in March 2016 , Mario Draghi , President of the European Central Bank ECB, was asked about helicopter money. According to Draghi, the Central Bank Council has not yet considered or discussed it. However, he also spoke of a “very interesting concept” that is currently being discussed among other academic economists and that could also mean “many different things”.

Since March 2016, according to the world, there have been 10 to 30 messages a day on the previously completely neglected topic. In one graphic, the world shows the clear connection between low inflation expectations and the frequency of the topic in the media from April 2015 to April 2016.

Judgment by economists and politicians

Rejection

In Germany in particular, many economists and politicians are skeptical of helicopter money. Helicopter money could set dangerous political precedents and feed the illusion that central banks could simply print more and more money for citizens and governments and thus solve the problems.

Jens Weidmann, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, is strictly against the issue of helicopter money . According to Weidmann, monetary policy is not a panacea, it replaces unnecessary reforms in individual countries and it does not solve Europe's growth problems. In addition, gifts of money to citizens are "a highly political decision" that governments and parliaments have to make. "The central banks have no mandate to do this, also because this would involve massive redistribution," said Weidmann.

According to the critics, the issue of helicopter money harbors great dangers. Citizens could get used to the fact that they no longer have to earn money through work. In the next crisis, voters or politicians would demand that the central bank issue helicopter money again. A country's people and economy would be greatly unsettled about future inflation, with potentially dramatic consequences for savings, investment and growth prospects. The citizens' trust in the monetary system and the central banks would be lost.

In the opinion of Claudio Borio, Piti Disyatat and Anna Zabai, the usual concept of helicopter money costs a high price. It means the permanent abandonment of monetary policy, since its effectiveness presupposes that interest rates remain at zero. Only under this condition can a centrally financed fiscal program be more expansive than a debt financed program. Without this interest rate requirement, according to the model, a limited additional effect of monetary financing can be expected. Their conclusion is that something like a “free lunch” cannot exist in the economy.

advocacy

However, there are also significant advocates for the concept of helicopter money, according to Adair Turner , former head of the UK's financial market regulator, and Lawrence Summers , former US Treasury Secretary under Bill Clinton. The main reason for the proponents is that the previous possibilities of monetary policy have been exhausted, so that the direct transfer remains as the last resort.

John Muellbauer justified an expansion of the money supply through transfer payments to citizens on December 23, 2014 with the experience from the tax rebates of the USA in the years 2001 and 2008. Between 20 and 40% of the money in 2001 was mainly used in half a year for short-term consumer goods in 2008, on the other hand, a large part for durable vehicles such as cars. The concern that this money would only be saved and not get the economic cycle going has not been fulfilled. The stimulating effect on the economy was particularly evident in the second case. Muellbauer calculates the effect of a transfer of 500 euros per household at 1.1% to 2% of GDP for countries such as Spain, Portugal and Greece. Because of the high savings rate in Germany, this would only trigger growth of 0.5%. Such a measure of direct financial support would also increase citizens' approval of Europe, especially in economically ailing and socially particularly badly hit countries.

In addition, the creation of money would not burden the state budget through further borrowing, as was the case with credit-financed economic stimulus programs, which have raised the national debt to unaffordable heights, since repayment and interest would have to be paid through higher taxes or budget cuts.

Economists also point out that the expansion of the money supply is the same in effect through transfer payments or through the purchase of bonds. In the case of transfer to the citizens, however, consumption would be boosted directly, while the capital expansion of the banks would only increase the supply of credit. These bank loans are available for investment, but hardly for consumption. The current economy is not lacking in the expansion of production through investment, but in the expansion of consumer demand. In the end, making loans that are not drawn down would only create a money bubble, while a transfer of interest-free money to citizens would directly stimulate consumption.

Economist Romain Baeriswyl of the Swiss National Bank writes that central banks could better control inflation rates by transferring money to citizens than by manipulating credit markets and interest rates. In contrast to the usual measures, this would hardly lead to financial imbalances.

Proponents reject the argument that this measure would undermine confidence in the currency, since on the contrary, reaching the inflation target in the face of current deflation and economic stagnation will only restore confidence. Deflation expresses the loss of confidence.

The incentive to earn money through work would not be lost either, because unemployment is not the result of work reluctance, but a lack of jobs.

It is also not unethical to support the poor in this way, because the previous monetary policy has rather promoted the rich.

Prof. Marcel Fratzscher , German Institute for Economic Research , includes helicopter money in the measures that may have to be taken into account so that the crisis in Europe can be overcome, but considers them to be difficult to implement in practice.

Criticism on the monetary theoretical level

While critics like Otmar Issing regard the debate on helicopter money as “devastating” and a “total mental confusion”, for a “bankruptcy of monetary policy”, Thomas Mayer expresses doubts about the previous monetary system.

Economists like Mayer are calling for the previous theoretical framework of monetary policy and monetary theory to be overcome . The monetary system is no longer viable in its existing form and is only creating new bubbles on the financial markets. While money was previously only seen as debt money, money must be interpreted as "reputation money". Helicopter money, for example, will not be produced against a new demand like previous money. Its value depends entirely on whether the user expects to be able to exchange the money for other things. Gold is also reputation money in this sense. This form of money does not serve political purposes such as a targeted inflation rate, but turns money - like gold in the past - into a coveted and valued means of storage and exchange due to its scarcity.

See also

Web links

Individual evidence

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  5. ^ A b c Milton Friedman: Optimum Quantity of Money. Aldine Publishing Company, 1969, pp. 4 ff.
    Reprint: Milton Friedman: The Optimum Quantity Of Money . Transaction Publishers, 2005, ISBN 1-4128-3809-6 ( books.google.de [accessed April 7, 2016]).
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