Stock-flow consistent model

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Stock Flow Consistent Models (SFC), even accounting models , in German about continued existence and river size consistent modeling , is used as a collective term for different dynamic economic models that the dynamics of the inventory and flow variables in the balance sheets of the economic sectors of a national economy describe. They are assigned to the accounting or balance sheet approach .

history

Net wealth of the sectors in the USA 1945–2017 from the data of the flow of funds . You can see that every financial asset has a liability.

The initial ideas for the accounting approach go back to Knut Wicksell (1898) and John Maynard Keynes (1936). and Michał Kalecki (1899–1970). The theoretical framework is based on the work of Morris Copeland from 1949. He developed tables for the US economy, which map the cash flows of income, saving, lending and investing together with the changes in stocks of debt, credit and financial assets. To date, these flows of funds are published by the Federal Reserve System . The Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) contains as a table the economic transactions between the economic sectors and the national accounts .

James Tobin (1918-2002)

From the 1960s onwards, James Tobin and his colleagues used concepts such as the Social Accounting Matrix to build time-discrete models that included the portfolio management of various investments with different interest rates as well as real economic variables. Tobin's Nobel Prize lecture is considered a “manifest” for SFC modelers. Even Robert Clower explained his Keynesian -inspired price and cyclical theories on stock-flow considerations.

Wynne Godley (1926-2010), one of the pioneers
Marc Lavoie (* 1954) wrote a textbook with Godley

SFC models were further developed by authors from the post-Keynesian tradition. In addition to Tobin's approaches, different monetary theories such as loanable funds , modern monetary theory or endogenous money creation can be mapped. Some of these theories stand in contrast to the classic dichotomy of the division of an economy into the real and the monetary sector, the neutrality of money and the general equilibrium theory and the models based on it. Instead, they want to model the dynamics of cash flows and sectoral financial balances. In Germany, Wolfgang Stützel presented a similar approach in 1958 as “ balance mechanics ”. Far- reaching consequences were derived from some models of the monetary circuit theory , such as the thesis of monetary growth pressure , which could, however, be explained by an inconsistent accounting. By considering the constraints of the accounting identities such "black holes" are ( english holes black to avoid it), where money disappears or arises without offsetting entry from scratch.

The models achieved increasing popularity at the beginning of the 21st century and especially after the beginning of the global financial crisis , as some authors had foreseen the critical developments with accounting models. Wynne Godley , one of the pioneers of the SFC approach since the 1970s, had warned in publications since 2000 that the US home market would weaken and cause a recession . In the DSGE models , which dominate macroeconomics , no crises can arise because of behavioral assumptions such as rational expectations and intertemporal optimization. They treat inventory and flow variables in a consistent manner, but mostly only model individual inventory variables such as real capital while monetary variables such as credit relationships and debts are neglected. Therefore, attempts are made to analyze financial crises with stock flow consistent models based on the accounting approach.

SFC models are also used in ecological macroeconomics , in which, in addition to money flows, resource or energy flows and stocks or an ecosystem with renewable raw materials are mapped. While the ecological aspects were not considered by the post-Keynesian authors like Lavoie, SFC models are now common within ecological macroeconomics. References are made in particular to the Flow Fund models by Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen . There are also approaches to integrate the properties of SFC models in agent-based modeling (ABM) or to combine them with input-output analyzes .

concept

The basis of an SFC model is the preparation of balance sheets for various economic sectors such as banks, companies, private households and the state . The various stock sizes in the balance sheets are linked via accounting identities because, for example, the balance of households with the bank is always a liability of the bank. The flow quantities are also linked to one another via identities, because the income of one is always the expenditure of the other. This results in the Social Accounting Matrix or Transaction Matrix . The monetary cycle in an economy can only be described consistently (stock-flow consistency) if the stock and flow variables meet the identities.

There are basically three important types of equations for economic models that also occur in SFC models. Definition equations such as the national accounts equations , certain model-dependent identity equations and behavioral equations . In a stock flow consistent model there are always (1) equations that establish a relationship between stock and flow variables, (2) equations that establish relationships between flow variables, and (3) behavioral equations. For example, consumption functions or certain price adjustment processes are used as behavioral functions . Rational expectations are not assumed here, but rather limited rationality is assumed. Thanks to the definitions and identities, a behavioral equation cannot be given for every variable, because otherwise the system would be overdetermined . Alternatively, additional adaptation variables have to be introduced to make the system solvable. Unlike many other economic models, no general equilibrium is usually assumed; instead, the models describe transient adaptation processes.

Most SFC models are formulated in discrete time, but can also be formulated in continuous time as differential equations or differential-algebraic equations .

Example of a simple model

Example for the balance sheets of the individual economic sectors and the flow variables of a simple SFC model
Time development of the variables to a steady state ( fixed point ). In this, the tax revenue corresponds precisely to the assumed constant state consumption and the available income of the household corresponds to the consumption expenditure - this means that the stock sizes no longer change.
(Source code for python in the image description)

Wynne Godley and Marc Lavoie describe a simple SFC model in their textbook. It consists of three sectors: households , government and corporations . In the balance sheet ( T account ) the budget is as stock size and asset , financial assets ( for English High Powered Money , central bank money ). On the liabilities side is the equity , which offsets the balance sheet. In this very simple model, the companies have neither real capital nor other assets - the sector thus serves as a pure flow item for flow variables : The income of the companies from consumption by households ( English consumption ) and state consumption ( English government expenditures ) corresponds precisely to the turnover that is distributed in full as wages ( English wages , including company wages ). From wages a proportion than is controlling ( English taxes paid). In the state's balance sheet, the amount of money emitted is found as debt on the liabilities side - equity is negative and has therefore slipped onto the assets side so that the balance sheet is balanced.

The first two equations establish the relationships between stock and flow quantities. The population size of the budget changes by two flow sizes, they increased by disposable income ( english disposable income ) and decreases by consumer spending . The amount of money emitted changes due to the flow variables of tax revenue and government consumption . This ensures two identities, whereby the time describes, and accordingly the previous period, the difference of which must be the sum of the incoming and outgoing flows:

Since, by definition, the companies do not have any inventory variables, the incoming and outgoing payments have to balance each other out, which results in a third identity that only contains flow variables:

The fourth identity is that the household's disposable income is just equal to wages minus taxes :

The behavioral equation of the state in the model is that it imposes a fixed tax rate on wages:

The household's equation of behavior is that it spends a share of disposable income and another share of previous period's financial assets :

In order for it to make economic sense, the household's financial assets should correspond precisely to the amount of money emitted in the model . Since (or if) the stock and flow variables were modeled consistently, the following applies: As long as this is fulfilled as an initial condition, this identity is always fulfilled. In this way, the consistency of modeling and programming can be checked. The equations fully describe the development of the model over time, which can now be simulated numerically (see graphic on the right).

More complex models

Balance sheets and flows of money and materials in a stock-flow consistent input-output model.

The example model contains only a very small number of variables. Stock-flow-consistent models used in research are much more complicated, include a larger number of inventory levels in balance sheets, cash flows, capital and investments, and have dynamically changing prices. Nevertheless, the structure of these models always consists of various identities and behavioral equations that together describe the time development of the model.

Example for a numerical stability analysis: For certain parameter values ​​(here: interest rate and consumption from wealth) the model is stable, for others it is unstable.

Simple models can be solved analytically and examined using concepts from the theory of dynamic systems such as bifurcation analysis. More complex models have to be simulated numerically .

literature

Web links

Individual evidence

  1. a b c d Michalis Nikiforos, Gennaro Zezza: Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomics Models: A Survey . In: Journal of Economic Surveys , Volume 31, Number 5, December 2017, pp. 1204–1239, doi : 10.1111 / joes.12221 .
  2. a b c d Dirk J. Bezemer: Understanding financial crisis through accounting models . In: Accounting, Organizations and Society . tape 35 , no. 7 , 2010, p. 676-688 , doi : 10.1016 / j.aos.2010.07.002 .
  3. Ferdinand Wenzlaff, Christian Kimmich, Oliver Richters: Theoretical approaches to a forced growth in the money economy . In: ZÖSS Discussion Papers . No. 45 . Center for Economic and Sociological Studies, Hamburg 2014, p. 27 ( hdl : 10419/103454 ).
  4. a b c Dirk Ehnts : The balance sheet approach to macroeconomics . In: Samuel Decker, Wolfram Elsner, Svenja Flechtner (Eds.): Principles and Pluralist Appraoches in Teaching Economics . Routledge, London / New York 2019, pp. 243-255, doi: 10.4324 / 9781315177731-16 .
  5. ^ Neil T. Skaggs: HD Macleod and the origins of the theory of finance in economic development. In: History of Political Economy , Volume 35, Number 3, 2003, pp. 361-384, especially p. 377, doi : 10.1215 / 00182702-35-3-361 .
  6. Stephen Kinsella: Words to the wise: Stock flow consistent modeling of financial instability , UCD Geary Institute Discussion Paper Series, WP2011 / 30, November 2011. doi : 10.2139 / ssrn.1955613 .
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  8. ^ John Maynard Keynes : The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money . Palgrave Macmillan, London 1936.
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  26. a b c d Oliver Richters, Erhard Glötzl: Modeling economic forces, power relations, and stock-flow consistency: a general constrained dynamics approach . In: Journal of Post Keynesian Economics . 2020, doi : 10.1080 / 01603477.2020.1713008 . Pre-printed as Uni Oldenburg Discussion Paper, 2018, hdl : 10419/178651 .
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  30. Wynne Godley , Randall Wray : Is goldilocks doomed? In: Journal of Economic Issues , Volume 34, Number 1, 2000, pp. 201-206, doi : 10.1080 / 00213624.2000.11506253 .
  31. Wynne Godley, Gennaro Zezza: Debt and lending: A Cri de Coeur. Levy Institute at Bard College Policy Notes 4, 2006.
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  39. a b Jonathan Barth, Oliver Richters: Demand-driven ecological collapse: a stock-flow fund-service model of money, energy, and ecological scale . In: Samuel Decker, Wolfram Elsner, Svenja Flechtner (Eds.): Principles and Pluralist Appraoches in Teaching Economics . Routledge, London / New York 2019, pp. 169–190, doi: 10.4324 / 9781315177731-12 .
  40. Alessandro Caiani, Antoine Godin, Eugenio Caverzasi, Mauro Gallegati, Stephen Kinsella, Joseph E. Stiglitz : Agent Based-Stock Flow Consistent Macroeconomics: Towards a Benchmark Model . In: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control . tape 69 , August 2016, p. 375-408 , doi : 10.1016 / j.jedc.2016.06.001 .
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  42. ^ Jung Hoon Kim, Marc Lavoie : A two-sector model with target-return pricing in a stock-flow consistent framework . In: Economic Systems Research . tape 28 , no. 3 , 2016, p. 403-427 , doi : 10.1080 / 09535314.2016.1196166 .
  43. ^ Soon Ryoo: Long waves and short cycles in a model of endogenous financial fragility. In: Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization , Volume 74, Number 3, 2010, pp. 163-186, doi : 10.1016 / j.jebo.2010.03.015 .
  44. ^ A b Wynne Godley , Marc Lavoie : Monetary Economics . Palgrave Macmillan, New York 2012, ISBN 978-0-230-30184-9 . Chapter 3. The textbook does not contain this graphic representation of the balances and flow quantities.
  45. ^ Wynne Godley: Money and credit in a Keynesian model of income determination. In: Cambridge Journal of Economics , Volume 23, Number 4, 1999, doi : 10.1093 / cje / 23.4.393 pp. 393-411, quoted from p. 395: The “watertight accounting of the model implies that there will always be one equation which is logically implied by the others. "