Summarized fertility rate

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Fertility rate by country (2018); Among the industrialized countries, only France and Israel have a fertility rate below which the population will not decline in the long term
  • 7–8 children per woman
  • 6–7 children per woman
  • 5–6 children per woman
  • 4–5 children per woman
    		•
  • 3–4 children per woman
  • 2–3 children per woman
  • 1–2 children per woman
  • 0–1 children per woman
    		•
    Summarized fertility rates in Germany by district and urban district

    The summarized fertility rate or fertility rate is a measure used in demography that indicates how many children a woman would have on average in the course of life if the age-specific fertility rates determined at a uniform point in time were valid for the entire period of her fertile phase of life. It is determined by adding up the age-specific fertility rates and dividing them by 1000.

    Synonyms and related terms

    Synonymous with aggregate fertility rate , the terms total fertility rate , total fertility rate and fertility rate (Engl. Total fertility rate (TFR)) is used.

    Sometimes these terms are also used for the mean final number of children or cohort fertility , which differs in that it adds up the age-specific fertility rates that were valid at the point in time when a given birth cohort actually had the corresponding age. It is therefore more realistic, but has the disadvantage that it can only be determined after the age group in question has largely passed the childbearing age.

    In particular, summarized fertility rates and mean final child numbers may develop differently if the average age of mothers shifts; Special effects in the summarized fertility rates are possible, for example, from postponed and rescheduled births due to crises. However, in practice, postponed wishes for children are rarely fully realized afterwards, so they also affect the mean final number of children.

    Relationship to the net reproduction rate

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    UN fertility rate analysis and forecast by continent

    The fertility rate at which the population would remain constant is known as the “replacement level of fertility ”. In modern societies with low infant and child mortality, it is assumed that mathematically about 2.1 children per woman have to be born in order to keep the population at a constant level in the long term without migration . This number is not exactly 2 because the gender ratio at birth is not 1: 1, there are only around 485 to 490 girls for every 1,000 births, and because even in more developed countries some women die before they have reached menarche . In China, due to the very unfavorable gender ratio of 119 boys to 100 girls, a fertility rate of 2.38 would be necessary to maintain the population.

    The net reproduction rate takes this into account by only counting daughters and including the age-specific death rates , although the latter as well as the fertility rates are assumed to be constant. A real prognostic statement is therefore not included in any case.

    In countries with higher child mortality rates, a higher fertility rate is needed to compensate for a stable population. Since child mortality is up to 50% in some regions, a fertility rate of around 4 is necessary there to sustainably maintain the population.

    Temporary population growth is also possible with a fertility rate below 2.1 if the mortality rate is low and as long as the child-bearing age groups are high. After a while, however , there is still a population decline , unless external immigration (see migration balance ) compensates for the natural loss of population. Particularly clear examples of this are China and Thailand , but this was also the case for a long time in Germany and many other more highly developed countries or is currently the case.

    Differences between the fertility rate and cohort fertility rate

    Although fertility rates, like cohort fertility rates, are a measure of reproduction, they differ markedly.

    The fertility rate can fluctuate widely within a few years. The fertility rate of a year is directly influenced by acute events. These include, for example, wars , natural disasters or economic crises . Longer-term changes in the cohort fertility rate are based e.g. B. on large-scale increase in education, especially among girls and women, the invention, establishment or restriction of contraceptives , government measures such. B. the one-child policy to control population growth in the People's Republic of China or state family support z. B. in Germany.

    The cohort fertility rate is not subject to rapid fluctuations, as it summarizes all the effects that have an effect on the fertility of a female cohort over the course of around 30 years: it may be that a female cohort is only affected by sudden changes in part of the childbearing phase , the next year but a year longer and so on. In this way, there may also be an overlap of conflicting effects. For example, the timing (e.g. postponement) of births has a direct impact on the fertility rate, but this timing is no longer recognizable from the cohort fertility rate.

    Development of the cohort fertility rate in Germany

    Reliable figures for cohort fertility have been available in Germany since at least the middle of the 19th century. For those born in 1850, the rate was still over 5. But from the born in 1870 a steep downward trend began. Already the year of birth 1905 no longer reached the level of 2.1 necessary to maintain the stock. This condition persisted up to the birth cohorts 1930 to 1940. These women cohorts were mainly responsible for the baby boom in the period from 1955 to 1965. After the cohort of birth 1940 there was a further drop to a level of around 1.7 by the cohort of 1960 Final figures can be given for the following cohorts as soon as the childbearing phase (up to around 45 years of age) has been completed.

    Development of the fertility rate in Germany

    Fertility rate (total fertility rate) in Germany 1956–2010

    The fertility rate shows the same development trend as the cohort fertility rate, however, as explained above, the external influences are more clearly recognizable. As early as 1900, the fertility rate fell dramatically. The decrease increased during the First World War . After the war, the fertility rate rose again almost to the pre-war values, but then immediately continued the strong decline of the pre-war period. After 1933 there was a moderate increase in the years of National Socialism. The Second World War then led to a decline again, although this was significantly weaker than in the First World War. After the war the fertility rate remained at a level below 2.1 until 1955 and did not exceed this mark again in West and East Germany until 1955–1965. At that time, the baby boom took its course. Thereafter there was a decline in the fertility rate in both West and East Germany due to the pill break . Since then, the fertility rate has been well below 2. In the GDR, the fertility rate rose again from 1975 to around 1985, although it did not reach the limit of 2.1 and thus a net reproduction rate of 1.

    Differences between rural areas and cities

    Looking at the map of Germany, it is noticeable that rural areas generally have higher fertility rates than urban districts. There are many reasons for this. The student share plays a role as students generally do not start families until after completing their studies. Therefore, the fertility rates in typical student cities like Würzburg or Heidelberg are particularly low. Furthermore, many people move to suburban or rural areas when they start families, as these are judged by many to be more child-friendly. The high religious importance of the family certainly also plays a role through the Christian churches, which have more influence in rural areas. Exceptions are cities like Erfurt or Dresden, whose borders are broad and include suburban areas. A high proportion of migrants can also reverse this situation, as can be seen in Ludwigshafen or Offenbach. These models are not limited to Germany, but are internationally valid.

    Relationship between the fertility rate and the gross national product by country (2016).

    Development of the fertility rate worldwide

    The number of children among women of childbearing age has almost halved worldwide within 35 years. Between 1970 and 1975, women still had 4.7 children on average across the world. In 2010, women gave birth to an average of 2.6 babies according to the "World Fertility Patterns 2009". An overview of the development of the fertility rate since 1950 is available from Our World in Data .

    The combined fertility rate according to the World Development Indicators of the World Bank was 2.7 in 1998, 2.5 in 2010 and 2.426 in 2017. In 1963/1964 it was more than twice as high at 5.1 and has fallen continuously since then (as of 2017).

    Due to the decreased fertility, the absolute number of children worldwide has not changed significantly since the beginning of the 21st century. The number of children aged 0 to 14 worldwide rose from under 1 billion to almost 2 billion between 1950 and 2000 and has remained more or less stable since then (as of 2015).

    Important values ​​of the fertility rate

    The values ​​given relate to the calendar year of the births, so they are data on the total fertility rate.

    Overview of fertility rates

    Country / continent 1966 1983 1995 2000 2002 2004 2006 2014
    Africa 5.0
    Egypt 3.6 2.9 2.83 2.87
    Ethiopia 5.9 5.3 5.22 5.23
    Botswana 3.9 2.85 2.79 2.37
    Burkina Faso 6.8 6.2 6.47 5.93
    Congo 6.6 6.37 4.8
    Niger 7.5 6.75 6.89
    Nigeria 6.5 5.53 5.25
    Asia 4.8
    China 1.8 1.8 1.72 1.73 1.55
    India 3.4 3.2 2.8 2.51
    Indonesia 2.7 2.44 2.18
    Japan 1.8 1.33 1.29 1.23 1.4
    Europe 1.4
    Belgium 1.66 1.62 1.64 1.64 1.65
    Denmark 1.4 1.8 1.73
    Germany (all federal states) 1.249 1.378 1.341 1.355 1.331 1.43
    Germany (old federal states) 1.4 1,339 1.413 1.371 1.372 1.341
    Germany (new federal states) 1.9 0.838 1,214 1,238 1.307 1.303
    Finland 1.73 1.83 1.73
    France 2.0 1.98 1.88 1.85 1.98 2.08
    Greece 2.3 2.3 1.35 1.41
    Great Britain 1.8 1.6 1.66 1.66 1.84 1.9
    Ireland 1.89 1.9 1.87 1.90 2.0
    Iceland 2.1 1.92 1.88
    Italy 2.5 1.6 1.17 1.24 1.26 1.33 1.40 1.42
    Netherlands 1.70 1.66 1.78
    Austria 2.66 1.56 1.42 1.36 1.39 1.42 1.41 1.43
    Poland 1.30 1.39 1.33
    Portugal 3.0 2.1 1.54 1.52
    Romania 3.7 2.5 1.35 1.32
    Sweden 1.64 1.88
    Spain 2.9 2.0 1.28 1.28 1.37 1.48
    Czech Republic 1.20 1.44 1.43
    Latin America 3.2
    Brazil 2.5 1.93 1.88 1.79
    Mexico 3.1 2.16 2.2 2.29
    North America 2.0
    Canada 1.8 1.61 1.59
    USA ( list ) 2.05 2.1 2.01
    Country / continent 1966 1983 1995 2000 2002 2004 2006 2014

    Reasons for a high or low fertility rate

    Empirical studies show that there is a high correlation between desired and actual fertility. Women get roughly the number of children as they wish (Pritchett (1994)).

    See also

    literature

    • Andreas Heigl: Demographic Fact Book . Hypo Vereinsbank (publisher), Munich 2001.
    • Johannes Kopp: Birth development and fertility behavior . UVK 2002, ISBN 3-89669-969-5 . Scientific treatise that also includes an explanation of demographic variables .
    • Dieter Stempell: World Population 2000 . Leipzig / Jena / Berlin 1985.
    • Thomas Weiss: Economic determinants of fertility in western industrialized countries . Federal Institute for Population Research (Hrsg.), Materials for population science , special issue 5. Wiesbaden 1986, ISSN  0178-918X .

    Web links

    Individual evidence

    1. ^ Statement by President Roderich Egeler on the press conference "Microcensus 2008 - New data on childlessness in Germany". ( Memento of November 14, 2010 in the Internet Archive ) (PDF) Federal Statistical Office
    2. ↑ Worldwide every woman has only 2.6 children. In: NZZ . March 7, 2010, accessed June 29, 2019 .
    3. ^ Max Roser: Fertility Rate . In: Our World in Data . February 19, 2014 ( ourworldindata.org [accessed January 8, 2020]).
    4. ^ Fertility rate, total (births per woman). In: World Development Indicators. IDA / IBRD , 2017, accessed on June 29, 2019 (interactive diagram, default: "World"). .
    5. ↑ Evelyn Grünheid, Harun Sulak: Population development: 2016. (PDF 255 KB) Data, facts, trends on demographic change. Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB), 2016, p. 77 , accessed on June 29, 2019 (section “Development of the world population by age group, 1950 to 2015”).
    6. ↑ a b c d e f g Dieter Stempell: World population 2000 . Leipzig / Jena / Berlin 1985.
    7. ↑ a b c Information for 1980
    8. ↑ a b c d e f g h i j k Hannelore Jani: The Mediterranean countries were Europe's fastest aging region. Is there a recognizable common strategy of the “Romance countries”?
    9. ↑ Table: 3.08. In: Demographisches Jahrbuch , 2004, ISBN 3-902479-43-4 , statistik.at
    10. ↑ Information for 1967