Gerd Bosbach

from Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Gerd Bosbach (born December 7, 1953 in Kuchenheim ) is a German mathematician . Until 2019 he was Professor of Statistics and Empirical Economic and Social Research at Koblenz University , Remagen (RheinAhrCampus). Before that he was a research assistant at the Federal Statistical Office and then worked in the statistics department of the National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Dentists. He is a critic of the dramatization of the demographic development of the population in Germany.

Life

After completing a degree in mathematics (diploma) in statistics, Bosbach received his doctorate from the Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences at the University of Cologne . He then worked as a research assistant at the Federal Statistical Office . There he worked primarily in the Bonn advisory center for advising the finance and economics ministry and the scientific services of the German Bundestag. Afterwards, Bosbach was a trainer for computer science assistants and works in the statistics department of the National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Dentists. From 1999 to 2002 he was a professor at Ansbach University , from 2002 to 2019 at the RheinAhrCampus Remagen .

Research priorities

Bosbach is particularly concerned with labor market , economic and population statistics , with statistics on health care and with statistical abuse. As a critic of the apparently statistically based "catastrophe scenarios" on demographic change and the thesis of a cost explosion in the health care system, he has been publicly known since 2004. Although often received in the affirmative, his theses have not changed public opinion.

Positions

In 2014, he countered the thesis of obsolescence and the resulting postponement of the age limit and the reduction in pensions with the following arguments:

  • In the past century, we would have handled a much larger demographic shift than expected in the future. This was accompanied by a massive expansion of the welfare state, prosperity and a simultaneous shortening of life, annual and weekly working hours. The logic that higher life expectancy, more retirees and less youth require social cuts, fails at least in retrospect.
  • A look at the population pyramids worldwide shows that it is not the states with young populations but those with older populations that are wealthy.
  • When considering demographics, large, frightening numbers are often generated using statistical tricks: small annual changes are summarized over many decades; a retirement age of 65 is usually assumed for 2060.
  • Productivity developments would be completely excluded from the demographic future analysis, as would the reserves in today's labor market (unemployed, forced part-time work, hidden reserves, etc.).
  • The problem of financing pensions is not a consequence of the demographic factor, but of the distribution policy, which for years has placed more emphasis on promoting large fortunes and employers.
  • The ongoing austerity in the education system makes the talk that there is fear of a shortage of trained young workers, implausible.

In 2019, Bosbach dealt with the theses on the state of statutory pensions, which the economist Axel Börsch-Supan publicly represented when the Federal Government's Pension Commission met. Bosbach criticized the indicator “additional costs” chosen by Börsch-Supan because, by definition, “additional costs” always start at 0, ie they show rates of increase that appear dramatic very quickly. When calculating the age quotient , Börsch-Supan was assuming an age limit of 65 even for 2060, although the pension from 67 had long been a done deal.

In 2019, Bosbach criticized the “national-social” pension policy of the alternative for Germany and in particular of AfD politician Björn Höcke .

In 2020, Bosbach commented in an interview on some of the numbers that were often mentioned in the Corona crisis .

Award

In 2006 Gerd Bosbach received the honorary award The Golden Fold of the Office against Age Discrimination .

Publications (selection)

literature

Web links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ a b Press release of the Koblenz University of Applied Sciences, August 30 , 2019, online , accessed on January 31, 2020
  2. ↑ Gerd Bosbach: Schirrmacher, Der Spiegel and the demographic development. From the improper handling of facts . In: single-generation.de. March 6, 2006
  3. ↑ Gerd Bosbach & Klaus Bingler: Demography as a scapegoat: How bills are made without the landlord . Website of the Federal Agency for Civic Education . March 23, 2011
  4. ↑ Marcelo Peerenboom: Don't be afraid of demographic change . In: Rhein-Zeitung . October 10th, 2013
  5. ↑ Gabriele Goettle: Demography as a fear maker: Dangerous magic formula . Beyond scare tactics: Statistics professor Gerd Bosbach has been questioning background data on demographic change for a long time. In: taz . January 28, 2014.
  6. ↑ Cost explosion in health care: a misconception : "Almost every third person (38%) [suspects] the medical technical progress in connection with longer life expectancy as another cause behind the alleged cost explosion" (Health Monitor 2010)
  7. ↑ Klaus Bingler, Gerd Bosbach: Labor Shortage of the Future? About statistical sleight of hand (or mistakes in thinking) in the demography debate and the “demographics” of a socio-political discussion. Cologne 2014 (online on reflection pages and reflection pages )
  8. ↑ Gerd Bosbach: Demography: Four objections to the black painting. Souverän 2/2015 (PDF online at senioren-union.de )
  9. ↑ Gerd Bosbach: Debate about the future of pension insurance: is the stabilization of the pension level really unaffordable? Social Security, 3/2019, pp. 115–122. The abstract online at bund-verlag.de , accessed on March 28, 2020
  10. ↑ Interview on NachDenkSeiten May 29 , 2019 , accessed on March 28, 2020
  11. ↑ fr.de 07/19/2019 , accessed on March 28, 2020
  12. ↑ NachDenkSeiten March 26 , 2020, accessed on March 28, 2020
  13. ↑ The winner of the Golden Fold 2006 has been determined
personal data
SURNAME Bosbach, Gerd
BRIEF DESCRIPTION German mathematician and statistician
DATE OF BIRTH 7th December 1953
PLACE OF BIRTH Kuchenheim