Parliamentary election in Serbia 2012
On May 6, 2012 the regular parliamentary elections took place in Serbia. Parallel to the elections for the National Assembly , the parliament of the autonomous province of Vojvodina and the parliaments of numerous municipalities in Serbia were also elected. After the incumbent President Boris Tadić announced his resignation on April 4, 2012, the first round of the presidential election also took place on this date.
Let's Get Serbia Started List (Pokrenimo Srbiju) - Tomislav Nikolić won the parliamentary elections with 24.01% and was the strongest power to get 73 parliamentary seats, ahead of the Electoral for a Better Life list - Boris Tadić (22.07%) on the list 67 seats are eliminated. Ivica Dačić's electoral alliance, led by the Socialist Party of Serbia , became the third strongest force with 14.54% of the vote, which corresponds to 44 seats. The Democratic Party of Serbia with 7% (21 seats), the electoral alliance Preokret - Wende with 6.53% (20 seats) and the United Regions of Serbia under Mlađan Dinkic with 5.51% (16 seats) made the leap into Skupština. . Another nine seats went to minority parties. The nationalist Serbian Radical Party remained below the five percent threshold with 4.61% and had to leave parliament.
The Serbian judiciary has started an investigation into election fraud after 3,000 ballot papers were reportedly found in a dumpster in a town in the northern Serbian province of Vojvodina . In addition, voices were raised that there was considerable election manipulation, as the official election results at many polling stations had been falsified by several hundred to a thousand invalid ballot papers. This artificially increased voter turnout by several percentage points, which led to the Serbian Radical Party and the Dveri Srpske alliance slipping below the 5 percent mark. As a result of these allegations, rallies and mass protests took place in several Serbian cities, despite the ban.
Starting position
The last parliamentary election in 2008 took place in a heated atmosphere and amounted to a referendum on the question of a possible candidacy for the European Union . The governing coalition at the time broke up after Kosovo declared independence over the question of whether Serbia should sign the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU. While the national-conservative Prime Minister Vojislav Koštunica ( DSS ) opposed it, President Boris Tadić and his Democratic Party (DS) pursued a pro-European course.
The electoral alliance around the Democratic Party (DS) emerged as the strongest force in the elections. The extreme nationalist Serbian Radical Party (SRS) was the second strongest force, while Koštunica found itself far behind in third place. However, the formation of the government was only successful because Tadić managed to persuade the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), the former party of Slobodan Milošević , to form a coalition with his democrats. The alliance between DS and SPS, reinforced by the liberal G17 Plus and some regional and minority parties, could definitely be described as historic, as two forces formed an alliance with the Democrats and Socialists who were hostile to each other under the Milošević regime.
Contrary to many expectations, the coalition under Tadić's Prime Minister Mirko Cvetković with only a wafer-thin majority survived the entire legislative period without major crises. This makes it the first government since 2001 to rule for a full four years.
The civilization and rationalization of Serbian politics can be counted among the successes of the coalition. After the largest opposition party, the SRS, split up shortly after the election, and its split-off wing under the name of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) managed to win over the majority of its voters, the extreme nationalist camp is marginalized. Tomislav Nikolić , party leader of the SNS, advocates a pro-European course. The old split into nationalists and those with a European orientation has thus given way to a predominantly pro-European consensus, which is now only questioned by the radical radicals (SRS) and the increasingly right-wing Koštunica (DSS). However, both Eurosceptic parties did not get more than 15% in surveys.
In terms of European policy, Serbia made great strides towards the European Union. After the SAA was signed, the official application for membership followed, the visa requirement was lifted and, most recently, the Commission issued a very positive progress report with a clear recommendation for candidate status. The fact that this was denied for the time being at the European Council summit in December 2011 was essentially related to the Kosovo problem, which had become virulent again since summer 2011 at the latest with violent clashes at the border crossing between Kosovo and Serbia.
On the Kosovo question, the coalition led by the DS pursued a policy of two goals: Kosovo and the EU. While Koštunica noted that Serbia could not join the EU and maintain its claim to Kosovo at the same time, the current governing coalition wanted to combine both. At least since the visit of Chancellor Merkel in August 2011, this double objective has turned out to be illusory. It was only through concessions from Belgrade on the question of representing Kosovo at international conferences that Serbia was granted the status of candidate country of the European Union in early March 2012 . This step is also seen as the EU's support for the pro-European forces in the upcoming elections.
The government's economic policy was just as procedural as the Kosovo question. Originally started with the promise to noticeably improve the living conditions of the population, the government was confronted with the effects of the global economic and financial crisis. Official unemployment rose from 15% (2009) to 23% (November 2011). 1.7 million people are employed compared to 0.7 million unemployed and 1.4 million retirees. For 2012, economic growth of only 0.5% is expected. In January 2012 the government also had to buy back the steelworks in Smederevo from the US group US Steel , which in 2010 accounted for 10% of total exports.
Eligible voters
The number of eligible voters was given by the electoral commission on April 22nd as 7,026,579 citizens.
Parties entered
Opinion polls
| source | Date of the interview | DS | SNS | SRS | DSS | PLC | LDP | URS | Other | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factor Plus | 2nd-8th April 2012 | 29.4 | 33.4 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 11.6 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 4.7 | ± 3 |
| Factor Plus | 19.-27. December 2011 | 26.7 | 32.8 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 11.9 | unknown |
| NSPM | November 11, 2011 | 27 | 28.5 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 12.3 | unknown |
| VIP | October 18, 2011 | 25th | 36 | 8th | 5 | 7th | 5 | unknown | ||
| Strategic Marketing | July 8, 2011 | 29 | 33 | 8th | 6th | 4th | 4th | 4th | unknown | |
| IFIMES International Institute | July 1st - 25th, 2011 | 23.3 | 42.9 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 1.8 | 4.8 | ± 3 |
| Factor Plus | April 12, 2011 | 28.2 | 37.3 | unknown | ||||||
| VIP | April 6, 2011 | 24.3 | 41.7 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 1.4 | unknown | |
| IFIMES International Institute | March 1st - 25th, 2011 | 24.3 | 41.8 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 1.4 | 3.9 | ± 3 |
| TNS medium | February 10, 2010 | 30.6 | 29.9 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 11.0 | unknown |
| Strategic Marketing | September 12, 2009 | 35.1 | 31 | 9.7 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 4.7 | unknown | ||
| Strategic Marketing | September 4, 2009 | 35 | 31 | 10 | 7th | 4th | 5 | 0.5 | 7.5 | unknown |
| Strategic Marketing | November 6, 2008 | 40 | 20th | 10 | 10 | 6th | unknown | |||
| Strategic Marketing | October 2008 | 28.9 | 21st | 7.2 | unknown |
Individual evidence
- ↑ http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-23/serbia-may-hold-parliamentary-elections-may-6-novosti-reports.html
- ↑ http://relevant.at/politik/europa/510474/serbiens-praesident-auch-offiziell-zurueckgitten.story
- ↑ b92.rs: Tadić bolji za 13.051 glasova, accessed on May 7, 2012
- ↑ accessed on May 11, 2012
- ↑ Michael Ehrke: Serbia: Will 2011 be an election year? Friedrich Ebert Foundation, May 2011 (PDF; 540 kB)
- ↑ Marcus Schneider: Chancellor Merkel in Belgrade: Is Serbia stuck in a dead end after Germany's ultimatum? Friedrich Ebert Foundation, September 2011 (PDF; 149 kB)
- ^ Serbia: joy in the EU candidate. In: Die Presse, March 2, 2012
- ↑ IMF Sees Serbian 2012 GDP Up 0.5%, Jobless Rate 'a Concern'. Bloomberg News, Feb. 10, 2012
- ^ Hubert Beyerle: Steel works for one dollar . In: Financial Times Deutschland, January 30, 2012 ( Memento of February 18, 2012 in the Internet Archive )
- ↑ Archived copy ( Memento of the original from April 27, 2012 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. Serbian Electoral Commission on April 22, 2012
- ^ "Poll: Main presidential rivals neck-and-neck" . b92. April 10, 2012. Archived from the original on January 12, 2014. Info: The archive link was automatically inserted and not yet checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. Retrieved April 11, 2012.
- ↑ "Само 21 одсто грађана зна за кога ће гласати" . December 2, 2012. Retrieved on December 2, 2012 ..
- ↑ "Demokraté i naprednjaci izjednačeni, Tadić najpopularniji" . November 11, 2011. Retrieved on November 11, 2011 .. ( Page no longer available , search in web archives ) Info: The link was automatically marked as defective. Please check the link according to the instructions and then remove this notice.
- ^ "New poll shows SNS has lead over Democrats" . October 18, 2011. Archived from the original on October 20, 2011. Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. Retrieved on October 19, 2011 ..
- ^ Poll: SNS ahead of DS, Tadic ahead of Nikolic . Tanjug. July 8, 2011. Retrieved on October 19, 2011 ..
- ↑ Is President Tadic, bringing Serbia to NATO? . Lajme. July 13, 2011. Retrieved on October 19, 2011 ..
- ↑ Bojana Barlovac: Serbia: Poll Shows Growing Support For Opposition . Eurasia review. April 12, 2011. Retrieved on October 19, 2011 ..
- ↑ New poll gives opposition parties lead . B92. April 6, 2011. Archived from the original on April 7, 2011. Info: The archive link was automatically inserted and not yet checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. Retrieved on October 19, 2011 ..
- ↑ INEVITABLE EARLY ELECTION . Ifimens. March 30, 2011. Archived from the original on May 2, 2011. Info: The archive link was automatically inserted and not yet checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. Retrieved on October 19, 2011 ..
- ↑ Poll: DS, SNS share top spot . B92. February 10, 2010. Archived from the original on February 12, 2010. Info: The archive link was automatically inserted and not yet checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. Retrieved on October 19, 2011 ..
- ^ DS, SNS lead in latest poll . FONET, BLIC. September 12, 2009. Archived from the original on September 17, 2009. Info: The archive link was automatically inserted and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. Retrieved on October 19, 2011 ..
- ↑ Poll: DS 35%; SNS 31% . Tanjug. September 4, 2009. Archived from the original on September 5, 2009. Info: The archive link was automatically inserted and not yet checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. Retrieved on October 19, 2011 ..
- ^ Poll: DS leading with 40 percent . VEČERNJE NOVOSTI. November 6, 2008. Archived from the original on April 14, 2014. Info: The archive link was automatically inserted and not yet checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. Retrieved on October 19, 2011 ..
- ↑ Serbia: Former Radical Nikolic Forms Progressive Party . WikiLeaks. October 16, 2008. Archived from the original on May 6, 2012. Info: The archive link has been inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. Retrieved on October 19, 2011 ..
