Human Movement: The Transformative Power of Cities

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The move of mankind: The transformative power of cities is the main report of the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) from 2016. The WBGU is hereby presenting a contribution to the upcoming UN World Conference HABITAT III .

The report sees the Habitat Conference in direct correlation with the adopted in 2014 sustainable development objectives (ger .: Sustainable Development Goals - SDG) and the climate summit in Paris in 2015 ( COP 21 ). With the world conference of the UN program for housing and sustainable urban development in Ecuador in October 2016, the world community would have the chance to concretise the SDGs and COP 21, the authors are convinced.

The cities have to make the essential decisions that will determine the success of the Great Transformation towards sustainable urbanization in the next few decades . To do this, it is necessary to get away from the policy of small steps and instead make strategic changes. In the eyes of the WBGU, “business as usual” is not a sensible option.

SDG and Paris 2015

In 2015 were in the aftermath of the Millennium Development Goals , the goals of sustainable development (Sustainable Development Goals - SDGs) adopted. In particular, SDG goal No. 10 to reduce inequality within and between countries and SDG goal No. 11 to make cities and settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable relate to the subject areas of urbanization.

The goals of the Paris Agreement of December 2015, with which the aim is to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees, will not be achievable without changes in course in the cities.

Urban planning starting conditions

Our metropolises were created in different ways:

  • In Asia and South America there are examples of newly created, "top down" planned cities.
  • Informal settlement structures have emerged chaotically on the fringes of many metropolises .
  • In Europe in particular, there are almost exclusively mature urban structures that have grown historically.

Urgency of the problem

The UN estimates that there will be around 2.5 billion additional urban residents by the middle of the century. The urban population will be larger in 2050 than the total of today's world population in 2016. It is therefore expected that as much infrastructure will have to be built in the next three decades as has been created since the beginning of industrialization.

Around 85% of the new housing needs are expected in emerging and developing countries, of which around 50% in China. The major urbanization surge will primarily take place in Asia and Africa, while in the western industrialized countries and in Latin America it is about the transformation of already existing cities.

According to the report, there would be a time window until 2050 to build sustainable cities for the 21st and 22nd centuries. Otherwise irreversible path dependencies would arise. The dynamics in Asia and Africa are of great global importance. In the WBGU's assessment, whether it succeeds in a sustainable manner will be determined by compliance with the planetary guard rails , the quality of life of many people and thus also about stability and security in the world.

Bottleneck building materials

From 2008 to 2010, more cement was used in China than in the USA in the entire last century.

If the infrastructure expansion required in the emerging and developing countries over the next few years were to be carried out using the currently common building materials cement , steel and aluminum , more than three quarters of the maximum CO 2 budget would be consumed if climate change drops to 1, 5 ° C should be limited.

The report therefore sees the need to skip levels of development in emerging and developing countries like those in industrialized countries. What was needed was a so-called Leap-frogging (English for Leapfrog ). With wood and other natural building materials, alternatives to cement and steel are available, says the co-chairman of the WBGU Dirk Messner .

Mission statement and normative compass

In view of the different starting conditions of today's metropolises, there could be no overarching model. Nonetheless, the WBGU recommends polycentric urban development as one of the central proposals . Strengthening small and medium-sized towns and networking them with larger cities would have a number of advantages:

  • Better use of resources, because water, food and energy no longer have to be transported from far away to the few centers
  • decentralized supply of renewable energies
  • better cultural identity formation
  • higher resilience to shocks such as B. Extreme climatic events
  • better opportunities for participation and thus better governance structures

According to the WBGU, urban planning decisions should be checked with a "normative compass":

  • Preservation of the natural foundations of life
  • Ensuring political and economic participation for city residents
  • Preservation of the individuality of the respective cities

The WBGU assumes an expanded understanding of prosperity . Accordingly, it is not sufficient to decouple the material prosperity that can be achieved in the short term from the consumption of nature. Rather, prosperity should be at least partially decoupled from economic growth itself. Research would show that there is a connection between social capital and social inequalities on the one hand and average life satisfaction , violence, illness, fear and social mistrust on the other. In order to increase social stability and conditions such as To avoid, for example, in the banlieues of Paris , urban coexistence must therefore be sought. According to this definition, an understanding of quality of life that is based on the normative compass would not only be based on one's own needs, but also on the needs of the present and future generations. The WBGU is proposing the expansion of Immanuel Kant's categorical imperative to include a global and intergenerational principle of justice.

Positive examples

Some regions already come close to the ideal of a polycentric urban landscape:

WBGU proposals

  • New Urban Agenda
Habitat III should develop a political strategy for the next two decades.
  • City Charter
A vision of the transformation process should be negotiated in every city.
To this end, urban discourse spaces should be established.
By forming an understanding of policy options and solutions should be created. For example, urban real-world laboratories are an important place for the connection of transformative research and educational processes.
  • Strengthening the cities
While in Europe up to 45 percent of state funds flow into small towns and rural areas, in many developing countries this share is significantly less than 10 percent.
  • 50 global urban real-world laboratories
In the report, it is proposed that 50 urban real-world laboratories be created around the world, which build up knowledge about transformation processes in the urban context and make it internationally available.

Areas of action that are already widely discussed internationally:
(1) Decarbonisation, energy and climate protection
(2) Mobility and transport
(3) Structural and spatial design of cities
(4) Adaptation to climate change
(5) Combating poverty and reducing socio-economic disparities

Topics that, from the WBGU's point of view, still receive too little attention internationally and that focus on the study:
(1) urban land use
(2) materials and material flows
(3) urban health

Main authors of the report

Remarks

  1. ↑ "Inclusive" in this context means that all social groups are included. The UN defines an inclusive society as follows: "Society for all in which every individual, each with rights and responsibilities, has an active role to play". (Source: Creating an Inclusive Society: Practical Strategies to Promote Social Integration , United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, p. 4)
  2. ↑ In addition to alternatives to cement, alternative binding agent techniques and less problematic cement variants are also available. See the article Environmental Effects of Concrete .

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ The Movement of Mankind: The Transformative Power of Cities, Summary , Scientific Advisory Board of the Federal Government on Global Change (WBGU), April 25, 2016, p. 8.
  2. ^ The move of mankind: The transformative power of cities, summary , Scientific Advisory Board of the Federal Government on Global Change (WBGU), April 25, 2016, p. 4.
  3. ↑ a b c d The move of mankind: The transformative power of cities, summary , Scientific Advisory Board of the Federal Government on Global Change (WBGU), April 25, 2016, p. 9.
  4. ↑ a b The move of mankind: The transformative power of cities, summary , Scientific Advisory Board of the Federal Government on Global Change (WBGU), April 25, 2016, p. 11.
  5. ↑ a b c d e The move of mankind: The transformative power of cities, summary , Scientific Advisory Board of the Federal Government on Global Change (WBGU), April 25, 2016, p. 12.
  6. ↑ a b c d e f The move of mankind: The transformative power of cities, summary , Scientific Advisory Board of the Federal Government on Global Change (WBGU), April 25, 2016, p. 13.
  7. ↑ a b c The move of mankind: The transformative power of cities, summary , Scientific Advisory Board of the Federal Government on Global Change (WBGU), April 25, 2016, p. 19.
  8. ↑ New main report "The Movement of Mankind - The Transformative Power of Cities" by the WBGU handed over to the Federal Government on April 25 , German Development Institute (DIE), April 25, 2016
  9. ^ The move of mankind: The transformative power of cities, summary , Scientific Advisory Board of the Federal Government on Global Change (WBGU), April 25, 2016, p. 10.
  10. ↑ The move of mankind: The transformative power of cities, summary , Scientific Advisory Board of the Federal Government on Global Change (WBGU), April 25, 2016, p. 15.
  11. ↑ a b The move of mankind: The transformative power of cities, summary , Scientific Advisory Board of the Federal Government on Global Change (WBGU), April 25, 2016, p. 17.
  12. ↑ a b c The move of mankind: The transformative power of cities, summary , Scientific Advisory Board of the Federal Government on Global Change (WBGU), April 25, 2016, p. 18.
  13. ↑ The Movement of Mankind: The Transformative Power of Cities, Summary , Scientific Advisory Council of the Federal Government on Global Change (WBGU), April 25, 2016, p. 22.
  14. ^ The move of mankind: The transformative power of cities, summary , Scientific Advisory Board of the Federal Government on Global Change (WBGU), April 25, 2016, p. 5.
  15. ↑ a b The move of mankind: The transformative power of cities, summary , Scientific Advisory Council of the Federal Government on Global Change (WBGU), April 25, 2016, p. 26.
  16. ^ The move of mankind: The transformative power of cities, summary , Scientific Advisory Board of the Federal Government on Global Change (WBGU), April 25, 2016, p. 34.
  17. ^ The move of mankind: The transformative power of cities, summary , Scientific Advisory Board of the Federal Government on Global Change (WBGU), April 25, 2016, p. 37.
  18. ↑ Christiane Grefe: One to two billion people could end up in slums. Interview with Dirk Messner. In: The time. April 25, 2016
  19. ↑ The Movement of Mankind: The Transformative Power of Cities, Summary , Scientific Advisory Board of the Federal Government on Global Change (WBGU), April 25, 2016, p. 35.
  20. ↑ The move of mankind: The transformative power of cities, summary , Scientific Advisory Board of the Federal Government on Global Change (WBGU), April 25, 2016, p. 42.