Vladimir Isaakowitsch Keilis-Borok

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Vladimir Keilis-Borok ( Russian Владимир Исаакович Кейлис-Борок ., Scientific transliteration Vladimir Isaakovič Kejlis-Borok * 31 July 1921 in Moscow ; † 19th October 2013 in Culver City , California ) was a Russian geophysicist and seismologist .

In 1948 he received a doctorate in mathematical geophysics from the Soviet Academy of Sciences in Moscow. He developed the concept of the Earth's active lithosphere as a hierarchical , non-linear system .

In 2003 he and his team predicted earthquakes in San Simeon (December 2003) and in Hokkaidō (September 2003). These predictions turned out to be correct. However, some researchers found these predictions to be trivial, as the prediction was made for very large areas. For 2004, he predicted an earthquake of at least 6.4 for the San Andreas Fault in southern California with a probability of 50 percent by September 5 at the latest . This and other predicted quakes did not occur as predicted.

In addition to algorithms for earthquake prediction, Keilis-Borok also developed algorithms for predictions in the field of economics and politics.

He was director of the International Institute for Theory of Earthquake Prediction and Mathematical Geophysics of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow and worked at the University of California at Los Angeles ( UCLA ).

In 1969, Keilis-Borok was elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences . In 1998 he received the first Lewis Fry Richardson Medal from the European Geophysical Society, specifically for developing the concept of the active lithosphere. He is an honorary doctor of the Institut de Physique du Globe in Paris. He was a member of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences , the National Academy of Sciences (1971), the Austrian Academy of Sciences , the Russian Academy of Sciences (1988), the Academia Europaea and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences (1969). From 1987 to 1991 he was President of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics .

He was involved as an expert in the international monitoring of nuclear weapons tests and in the international working group on the geological safety of nuclear waste storage facilities.


  • Editor of the Computational Seismology and Geodynamics series , from 1966.
  • Editor Intermediate-term earthquake prediction: models, phenomenology, worldwide tests , Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 61, pp. 1–144 (1990)
  • Editor with PN Shebalin Dynamics of the lithosphere and earthquake prediction , Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 111, pp. 179-327 (1999)
  • Earthquake prediction: state-of-the-art and emerging possibilities, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 30, p. 38 (2002)
  • Editor with AA Soloviev Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction , Springer-Verlag, 2003.
  • Mit other Reverse tracing of short-term earthquake precursors , Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 145, pp. 75–85 (2004)
  • With P. Shebalin and others Advance short-term prediction of the large Tokachi-oki earthquake, September 25, 2003, M = 8.1 A case history , Earth Planets Space, 56, pp. 715-724 (2004).

Web links

Individual evidence

  1. Stuart Wolpert: Obituary: Vladimir Keilis-Borok, 92, UCLA seismologist who predicted quakes. UCLA, October 21, 2013, accessed October 22, 2013 .
  2. a b US Geological Survey on the prediction of Keilis-Borok, 2009 ( Memento from October 1, 2011 in the Internet Archive )
  3. Keilis-Borok et al. a. Pre-recession pattern of six economic indicators in the USA , Journal of Forecasting, 19, pp. 65-80 (2000)
  4. AJ Lichtman, Keilis-Borok Aggregate-level analysis and prediction of midterm senatorial elections in the United States , 1974-1986, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, Volume 86, 1989, pp. 10176-10180.
  5. ^ American Academy of Arts and Sciences. Book of Members ( PDF ). Retrieved April 18, 2016.