Consequences of global warming in Germany

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Comparison of the temperature development in Germany (DWD) and worldwide (NOAA) in the period from 1881 to 2019

The consequences of global warming in Germany are among the regional and local effects of global warming on society, health, nature and in technical matters. Evaluations of the weather observations show that the mean temperature in Germany increased by around 1.6 ° C between 1881 and 2019, while the global temperature increase (over sea and land areas) was only 1.0 ° C in the same period. Forecasts for the climate in Germany predict an increase of 1.7 ° C by the middle of the 21st century, which could increase further to 3 ° C by 2100.

Climate in Germany

Germany belongs to the temperate climate zone of Central Europe and is in the transition area between the maritime climate in Western Europe and the continental climate in Eastern Europe .

Negative weather changes

The Scientific Service of the German Bundestag found in 2016 that natural disasters and extreme weather events are increasing in Germany. Floods, storms and hail, but also heat and drought, are increasing in frequency.

The Munich Reinsurance Company , according to are from 1980 to 2016, the damage caused by severe thunderstorms - even after adjusting for inflation and increasing assets - rose significantly. Increasing extreme weather events can damage infrastructure structures such as roads or buildings. It is also to be expected that the habitats of plant and animal species will shift. The intensity of heavy precipitation has increased by 25% in the winter months over the past 65 years - in relation to 2015 - and it is to be expected that a further increase of this magnitude will take place by 2100. According to statements by the German Weather Service, the data situation for the summer months is not yet sufficient for a meaningful assessment. In northern Germany, the occurrence of flood events on rivers has been delayed because winter storms there tend to occur later.

Positive weather changes

Climate change can also have positive effects: mild winters, for example, reduce the need for heating energy or favor the cultivation of certain agricultural crops. Nevertheless, the few positive effects are clearly overlaid by the negative effects.

Sea level rise

The sea level on the German coasts has risen by 10 to 20 cm in the last 100 years. A further annual increase of around 1.7 mm is recorded on the North Sea coast.

Nationwide development

Previous warming

According to the evaluations of the German Weather Service , Germany warmed up by an average of 1.6 ° C in the period from 1881 to 2019, i.e. over the last 139 years. During the same period, the global temperature increase was 1.0 ° C. In the period since 1988 in Germany, except for 1996 and 2010, the average temperatures in all years were above the long-term average (1961–1990) of 8.2 ° C (status of the count: up to and including 2019). In 2018 10.5 ° C were reached. For Germany, looking at the period 1881 to 2019, the warming in the seasons is uniform: For summer, autumn and winter, the evaluations of the German Weather Service over this period show a linear trend of +1.5 ° C, for spring of +1 , 6 ° C.

In addition, the beginning of spring is premature on average by five days per decade: migratory birds stay almost a month longer in Germany than they did in the 1970s.

According to the 2019 monitoring report on the German government's adaptation strategy to climate change, the mean air temperature in Germany rose by 1.5 degrees Celsius between 1881 and 2018. In the previous version of the 2015 report, a temperature increase of 1.2 ° C was stated for the period 1881 to 2013. Consequential examples: Heat stress particularly affects the elderly, the sick and children. Some tree species such as the spruce are particularly vulnerable to the rise in temperature; the significantly higher water levels in the North and Baltic Seas harbor the risk of increasing and intensified storm surges.

The warmest 12-month continuous period up to June 2007 was recorded between June 2006 and May 2007; the winter had remained exceptionally warm. During this time the mean temperature was up to 2 ° C above the long-term mean of 9.2 ° C. The number of hot days with a maximum air temperature above 30 ° C has tripled from around three days in the 1950s to an average of nine days a year. The number of ice days with a maximum air temperature below freezing point decreased from 28 to 19 days in the same period. A heat wave occurred in 2015 , some of which was accompanied by historic record temperatures.

  • The time series shows the air temperatures rising significantly towards the end of the 20th century.

  • Sulfur dioxide reduction in Germany since 1990.

  • Drastic dust emission reduction in industry since 1990

Some of the warming since 1980 has been due to a reduction in air pollution . The formation of sulfur dioxide as a by-product of the combustion of organic materials (approx. 1% sulfur in fossil fuels such as wood, peat, lignite, hard coal, petroleum, etc.) was limited throughout Europe by the Helsinki Protocol of 1985 and enforced from the end of 1987 . Sulfur dioxide is not only responsible for acid rain, but also for increased cloud formation, which in turn reduces the permeability of the atmosphere to sunlight. Today, sulfur dioxide from power plants is bound in REA gypsum and used as a building material. Larger amounts of sulfur dioxide from volcanic eruptions in Iceland cannot reach Germany because of the great distance. In addition, industrial fine dust emissions were drastically reduced from 1990 onwards. From 1990, all combustion systems in East Germany were also adapted to this standard.

Above all, however, the burning of fossil fuels (such as coal and petroleum) and large-scale deforestation accumulate carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Other greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrous oxide have their sources u. a. in agriculture and livestock farming. They increase the natural greenhouse effect of the atmosphere and thus contribute to warming.

Changes expected in the future

The German Meteorological Society estimates future warming by around 2040 to be 1.7 ° C above the value of 1900 (9.0 ° C). The winters and nights in particular should be warmer. Heat waves should become more frequent and stronger. In summer, less precipitation is generally expected compared to an increase in winter, which, however, should fall more frequently as rain and less often as snow. This leads to increased droughts in summer and increasing floods in the winter months. A study that was carried out in 2007 on behalf of the Federal Environment Agency comes to comparable results . By the end of the 21st century, the air temperature could rise by up to 3 ° C. This increase is associated with increasing summer drought and increased winter precipitation.

At the same time, however, severe cold spells can be expected, as was the case, for example, with the cold spell in Europe in 2012 . Different researchers were able to independently identify mechanisms that greatly increase the likelihood of severe winters.

However, if one compares the winters in the 19th and within the first half of the 20th century with those of today, this clearly shows that the winters and the lowest temperatures are much milder today. The particularly long winter of 2012 was an average winter of the 19th century. Cold waves could turn out or be perceived colder relative to the warmer annual averages.

Climate impact analyzes

The consequences of climate change have an impact in many areas. As part of the “Vulnerability Network” research project led by the Federal Environment Agency (KomPass), a Germany-wide vulnerability analysis was carried out between 2011 and 2015 . The final report was presented to the public on November 24, 2015. The German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change presents the climate impacts for fifteen fields of action and identifies possible options for action. The fields of action include: human health, construction, water, soil, biodiversity, agriculture, forestry, fisheries, energy, finance, transport, industry and commerce, and tourism.

health

Climate change has an impact on the health of people, animals and plants, for example through increasing heat. Biometeorologically relevant weather influences are likely to change significantly. According to a study by the Federal Environment Agency , which assumed a moderate increase in greenhouse gas concentrations by 2100, exposure to high temperatures will more than double by the end of the 21st century, which will tend to decrease with lower temperatures. There will be significantly more, longer and more intense heat waves - often accompanied by high humidity - and greater temperature fluctuations. The investigation showed that the mortality is generally lowest in a temperature range of around 14 ° C to 17 ° C. It is very likely that mortality - starting from a low absolute level - will increase very significantly in percentage terms due to higher temperatures occurring more frequently. It is uncertain what effect the less frequent occurrence of low temperatures has. Without adjusting for the annual cycle, there is an overall decrease in mortality. If the annual cycle is adjusted, the increase in heat-related mortality strongly predominates. The study comes to the conclusion that overall, increased biotropic pollution is to be expected for the majority of the population. The strongest increase is expected for southern Germany.

Insects and plants in Germany

In the course of climate change, the species groups are reorganized. For example, insects withdraw to higher regions, plants bloom earlier and evolutionary adaptation processes take place.

One consequence of global warming is the spread of neobiota from warmer regions of the earth, such as the tropical ghost fish , which was detected in Chemnitz in 2017 and thus for the first time in Europe. The Asian tiger mosquito , which is increasingly spreading in Germany, is also relevant for the spread of diseases .

There are also fears that the tropical tick Hyalomma marginatum will spread to Germany after there are indications that specimens of this species overwintered in Germany from 2018 to 2019. In the Eurasian region, these ticks are considered to be carriers of the Crimean-Congo virus, which is also dangerous for humans. However , it is extremely unlikely that the Hyalomma tick would also introduce the Crimean-Congo fever . The ticks do not automatically carry the pathogen. You would first have to sting an animal infected with the Crimean-Congo pathogen at a juvenile stage. Only then could the next stage of development of the tick transmit the disease. It is also impossible for the subtropical giant tick to multiply explosively in our regions, because this type of tick only has one reproduction cycle per year.

Baden-Württemberg

On behalf of the Baden-Württemberg state government, several studies on the regional consequences of global warming have been carried out since the end of the 1990s .

Previous warming

The annual average temperature in Baden-Württemberg rose by 1.0 ° C in the period 1906–2005 (0.7 ° C worldwide), from an average of 8 ° C to 9 ° C. The largest increase occurred in the last 30 years. The number of maximum precipitation in winter and the number of flood events increased by 35% during this period, while the number of days with snow cover in lower regions decreased by 30–40%. The summers have tended to become drier. From 1953 to 2009 the number of ice days (maximum temperature below 0 ° C) in Stuttgart decreased from 25 to 15, while the number of summer days (maximum temperature at least 25 ° C) increased from 25 to 45. The probability of a distinctly dry growing season in Summer has increased sixfold since 1985.

Insects and plants in Baden-Württemberg

In addition, an increase in insects ( sand flies , ticks ) is recorded, which spread pathogens . The mugwort ragweed , an allergy-causing plant, is also spreading increasingly. In spruce and beech, the most common tree species in Baden-Württemberg, leaf and needle loss has increased significantly since 2001.

forecast

In the forecast issued by the state government in 2012, a further increase in the average temperature of 0.8 to 1.7 ° C and a doubling of the hot days (maximum temperature at least 30 ° C) for Baden-Württemberg by 2050 is predicted. Frost and ice days, on the other hand, will decrease significantly. Regional differences are to be assumed. The Rhine plain is particularly affected (expected increase in summer days in Karlsruhe from currently 60 to 80 days per year). In the lower and therefore warmer areas of Baden-Württemberg (0–400 meters in altitude), an average of 2.4 to 3.6 additional heat fatalities per 100,000 inhabitants can be expected every year. In addition, a further increase in winter precipitation of around 35% is forecast, which would be associated with an increased risk of flooding in winter. A flood of the century on the Neckar could lead to around 15% more water than before. The number of violent thunderstorms is also expected to increase, which would also affect the risk of flooding in smaller streams and rivers. In the future, summers will likely be up to 10% drier, dry periods will occur more frequently and last longer. This has an impact on agriculture, the energy industry and inland shipping. Temporally and locally limited bottlenecks in the water supply are also expected. A decreasing humus content in the soil, more erosion during heavy rain and the resulting input of nutrients and pollutants into bodies of water and other ecosystems can also be expected. As a result of the milder winter, it is to be feared for Lake Constance that the lack of cooling will hinder the entry of oxygen into the deep water, which has an effect on the organisms living there and the redissolution of nutrients from the sediment. As the CO 2 content in the air increases, the photosynthetic output of some cultivated plants increases. However, field experiments have shown that although the yield is improved, the quality (e.g. of wheat) decreases due to lower protein contents. Corn cultivation would probably benefit from the higher temperatures, provided there is sufficient water supply. The winter wheat yield, on the other hand, will decrease by 14% according to the calculations. An increased infestation of insect pests and plant diseases (especially fruit and wine ) is to be expected. As the heat wave of 2003 showed, beech and especially spruce are sensitive to persistent heat and drought. The native tree species will therefore probably no longer be able to adapt to a warming of the earth's atmosphere by more than 3 ° C.

Regional climate competence centers

The Helmholtz Association , Germany's largest scientific organization, has set up four regional climate offices in Germany. These serve as a source of information for decision-makers from business, politics and society on questions of the regional effects of climate change. The climate offices draw on the scientific expertise of the respective Helmholtz Center to which they are affiliated.

Topics: storms, storm surges, swell, energy and water cycle in northern Germany

Topics: Climate-relevant issues in polar and marine research

Topics: Climate impact research in relation to the environment, land use, society

Topics: regional climate simulations, extreme events (storms, hail, heavy precipitation)

In addition, the Competence Center for Climate Impacts and Adaptation (KomPass) was set up in the Federal Environment Agency in 2006. The main task of KomPass is to promote the implementation of the German adaptation strategy and to support its further development.

literature

See also

Web links

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ a b c Kaspar, F., Friedrich, K., Imbery, F .: 2019 second warmest year globally: temperature development in Germany in a global context , report by the German Weather Service , as of January 28, 2020
  2. ↑ Scientific Services - German Bundestag (ed.): Extreme weather and natural events in Germany in the past 20 years . WD 8 - 3000 - 049/16, June 29, 2016 ( bundestag.de [PDF; 3.6 MB ]).
  3. ↑ a b Climate facts as a basis for political decisions - press release on the state of research. German Weather Service u. a., July 6, 2017, accessed on July 7, 2017 .
  4. ↑ Federal Government (2008): German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change PDF
  5. ↑ The development of heavy precipitation in Germany: Plea for a differentiated view . Report by the German Weather Service, Offenbach am Main, 2016.
  6. ↑ Günter Blöschl u. a .: Changing climate shifts timing of European floods . In: Science . tape 357 , 2017, doi : 10.1126 / science.aan2506 .
  7. ↑ KomPass - Consequences of Climate Change . Last accessed on August 5, 2014
  8. ↑ a b c Kaspar, F., Friedrich, K .: Review of the temperature in Germany in 2019 and the long-term development , report by the German Weather Service , as of January 2, 2020
  9. ^ Friedrich, K .; Kaspar, F .: Review of 2018 - the warmest year so far in Germany , report by the German Weather Service , as of January 2, 2019
  10. ↑ Monitoring report 2019 on the German strategy for adaptation to climate change
  11. ↑ 2015 Monitoring Report on the German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change
  12. ↑ Already 1.5 degrees more in Germany. New report shows the effects of climate change / United Nations are sounding the alarm. In: Der Tagesspiegel , November 27, 2019, p. 4.
  13. ^ Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research: Heat record in Germany from June 27, 2007
  14. ↑ German Weather Service (ed.): National Climate Report 2016 . September 2016 ( dwd.de [PDF; 8.3 MB ]).
  15. ^ Deutscher Wetterdienst: First climatological assessment of the 2015 heat wave , July 2nd, 2015
  16. ↑ Max Planck Institute for Chemistry Mainz: Dirt in moderation makes more rain
  17. ↑ German Meteorological Society (2007): Statement by the German Meteorological Society on climate problems , October 9, 2007 (PDF; 52 kB)
  18. ↑ Spekat, Arne, Wolfgang Enke and Frank Keienkamp (2007): New development of regionally high-resolution weather conditions for Germany and provision of regional climate scenarios based on global climate simulations with the regionalization model WETTREG based on global climate simulations with ECHAM5 / MPI-OM T63L31 2010 by 2100 for the SRES scenarios B1, A1B and A2 , research project on behalf of the Federal Environment Agency (PDF, 7.3 MB)
  19. ↑ PIK Potsdam: Global warming could make winter colder
  20. ↑ Alfred Wegener Institute: New study shows connection between Arctic sea ice cover in summer and winter weather in Central Europe , press release, January 26, 2012
  21. ↑ Federal Environment Agency: The consequences of climate change will be much stronger in the future , November 24, 2015.
  22. ↑ In addition to weather influences, infections or other eating and exercise habits can also affect mortality in winter. You can calculate the annual cycle and thus these influences that are not directly weather-related, but then the effect of longer-lasting weather periods is also lost.
  23. ↑ Stefan Zacharias and Christina Koppe: Influence of climate change on the biotropy of the weather and the health and productivity of the population in Germany . Ed .: Federal Environment Agency. July 2015, ISSN  1862-4340 , 7 Conclusion ( online ).
  24. ↑ Ulrike Fokken: How climate change changes nature: The late bird does not catch a worm. In: taz.de. August 31, 2018, accessed July 26, 2019 .
  25. ↑ Aliens among us - an encounter with the sixth species , Museum für Naturkunde Chemnitz, press release , April 7th, 2017
  26. ↑ New tropical tick hibernates with us for the first time. In: Scinexx. June 21, 2019, accessed August 6, 2019 .
  27. ↑ Immigrated giant ticks succeed in wintering in Austria , Der Standard, June 12, 2019, accessed on June 22, 2019
  28. ^ State Institute for Environment, Measurements and Nature Conservation Baden-Württemberg : Publications: Climate . Retrieved January 2, 2013.
  29. ^ A b c Ministry for the Environment, Climate and Energy Baden-Württemberg , State Institute for Environment, Measurements and Nature Conservation Baden-Württemberg: Climate change in Baden-Württemberg - facts, consequences, perspectives . 2nd updated edition, March 2012. ISBN 978-3-88251-368-4 . Retrieved January 1, 2014.
  30. ^ The regional Helmholtz climate offices
  31. ↑ North German Climate Office
  32. ↑ Climate Office for Polar Regions and Sea Level Rise ( Memento of December 18, 2008 in the Internet Archive )
  33. ↑ Central German Climate Office
  34. ↑ South German Climate Office
  35. ↑ KomPass - KomPass . Last accessed on August 5, 2014