Health implications of global warming

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The health consequences of global warming are among the effects of global warming on humans. This includes both direct health effects (illnesses and deaths) in connection with heat, floods and storms (due to heat stress, injuries, traumas, etc.) as well as indirect health effects of climatic changes (e.g. due to the spread of infectious diseases, malnutrition). Certain population groups (chronically ill, elderly, etc.) are particularly at risk.

The negative health effects of climate change can be reduced through adaptation measures such as improved health care, better disaster management and poverty reduction, although the costs and effort involved could be considerable. According to the predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC), the consequences of severe global warming after 2050 will probably be difficult to cope with.

The World Health Organization , the World Medical Association and numerous other specialist societies and organizations in the health sector therefore advocate compliance with the Paris Agreement on Climate Protection as a form of health prevention.

Various climate protection measures (e.g. active mobility instead of driving) also have positive effects on health (so-called "co-benefits").

Research and Political Actors

The medical fields of tropical medicine , epidemiology and public health, among others, deal with the consequences of global warming for health . In recent years, the multidisciplinary field of global health and, in the context of global warming, the concept of planetary health have established themselves.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC) has been addressing the health consequences of climate change since the first assessment report in 1990, and since the second assessment report it has devoted a separate chapter to the topic.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has published reports on climate change and health since 1990.

A joint working group of the medical journal The Lancet and University College London published a comprehensive report on climate change and health in 2009. Another report was published in 2015. In these reports, climate change was identified as the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century. If anthropogenic global warming proceeds unchecked, the improvement in public health achieved over the past 50 years is likely to be undermined again. In this respect, comprehensive climate protection measures are the "greatest opportunity for global health in the 21st century".

The global network Lancet Countdown: Tracking progress on health and climate change emerged from this working group , which has been summarizing the scientific state of knowledge on the topic as well as the progress in climate protection and adaptation (in terms of health protection) annually since 2016.

Internationally, various non-governmental organizations such as the Global Climate and Health Alliance and the Planetary Health Alliance , and in Germany the German Alliance for Climate Change and Health , campaign for the implementation of climate protection measures as health protection.

In 2019, the first professorship for Climate Change and Health ( Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Charité ) was created in Germany.

Pathways of influence of climate change on health

In its fifth assessment report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change describes three ways in which climate change can affect health:

  1. Direct effects, mainly influenced by changes in the frequency of extreme weather events such as heat, drought and extreme precipitation.
  2. Effects caused by natural systems mediated have mediated or such. B. Insects as disease vectors , waterborne diseases , allergens , water or air pollution .
  3. Effects that are strongly mediated by human systems , e.g. B. health consequences in connection with employment, malnutrition (food production / distribution), psychological stress.

Particularly vulnerable groups

In general, it can be assumed that climate change reinforces existing patterns of illness by affecting the underlying vulnerabilities , which lead to illnesses even without the influence of climate change.

The causes of increased vulnerability to illness or injury include

  • geographical reasons
  • previous health status
  • Age
  • gender
  • socio-economic status
  • public health care or infrastructure.

Direct effects of climate and weather on health

Although there is ample evidence of the effects of weather and climate on health, there are few studies of the effects of global warming on health. This is because climate change is defined as change over decades. Good studies therefore require very long observation periods, information about other possible influencing factors, and suitable statistical methods. In addition, health authorities are urged to take measures immediately when risks become known, which in turn can influence the results of long-term studies. Despite these difficulties, conclusions can be drawn about cause and effect in various cases.

heat

There is a very stable relationship between hot days and the rise in mortality. At the same time, according to the results of the IPCC, it is very likely that the number of hot days and nights increased and the number of cold days and nights decreased globally as a result of climate change. It is therefore likely that the number of heat-related deaths as a result of anthropogenic climate change has increased.

If the body temperature rises above 38 ° C ("heat exhaustion"), physical and psychological functions are restricted; at over 40.6 ° C ("heat stroke") there is a risk of organ damage, loss of consciousness and death.

Groups of people who are already vulnerable, such as people with cardiovascular diseases , kidney diseases , diabetes , chronic lung diseases and older people over 65 years of age are particularly at risk from high temperatures.

The summer heat load in densely populated urban areas rose (2017 compared to the reference period 1986–2007) more than twice as much as the global average temperature. Thus, the populations in Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean are particularly at risk due to the high number of elderly people (42% and 43% over 65 years of age respectively) living in cities.

A meta-analysis shows that heatwave mortality is three times higher in people with pre-existing mental illness .

Floods and storms

Fifteen percent of all deaths from natural disasters are due to flooding. In addition to the immediate consequences of flooding such as death and injuries, the longer-term consequences include e.g. B. the spread of infectious diseases or the occurrence of mental illnesses (e.g. post-traumatic stress disorder ), intensified by the destruction of infrastructure, living space and livelihoods.

Ultraviolet radiation

The surrounding UV radiation and the maximum summer temperatures are associated with the prevalence of skin cancer and cataracts . At the same time, sunlight has a positive influence on vitamin D synthesis.

Indirect effects, mediated through natural systems

Diseases spread through insects

The temperature influences the extent to which infectious diseases spread by insects (e.g. mosquitoes, ticks) are transmitted . Temperatures have an effect on the one hand on the population growth of the disease vector and on the other hand on the development of the pathogen within the disease vector.

malaria

Investigations in warmer years showed an expansion of the areas of spread of malaria also in geographically higher regions. The densely populated regions of the African and South American highlands (Ethiopia, Colombia) are affected . According to estimates, a further warming of 1 ° C in Ethiopia could lead to 2.8 million additional illnesses in children under three years of age.

Lyme disease and TBE

Many studies have reported associations between climate and the spread of infectious diseases transmitted by ticks , such as Lyme disease and TBE . In North America, for example, a species of tick ( Ixodes scapularis ) was observed to spread northwards between 1996 and 2010. Up until 2014, however, there was no evidence of a related increase in infectious diseases in humans.

Dengue fever

The dengue fever showed a 30-fold increase in global incidence in the last 50 years, making it the spreading fastest mosquito-borne disease. Every year around 390 million infections with the dengue virus occur, 96 million of which show symptoms (as of 2013). The disease is prevalent in the Asia-Pacific region. The first spread in Europe since the 1920s was observed in 2012 in Madeira , Portugal. The main carriers of the dengue virus, the yellow fever mosquito and the Asian tiger mosquito , are climate-sensitive. Chinese studies have shown relationships between temperature, humidity and rainfall with the spread of dengue. On the one hand, heavy rainfall seems to favor the spread of dengue, and on the other, drought - through the storage of water in containers that serve as breeding grounds for mosquitoes. It is expected that with rising temperatures by the end of this century the tiger mosquito will find favorable climatic living conditions not only in the Mediterranean area, but also in large parts of western and central Europe, as far as the Ukraine. In Germany, the Asian tiger mosquito was only observed sporadically between 2007 and 2013; larger populations are now also detected in the summer months, especially in southern Germany.

Other infectious diseases spread via insects

The Hanta fever leads annually about 200,000 hospitalizations. The incidence of this condition is related to temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity. The plague , one of the oldest diseases of mankind, is still widespread in many parts of the world. Outbreaks have been linked to seasonal and annual climatic fluctuations. The chikungunya is a viral disease, which is also transmitted by the Asian tiger mosquito. The disease first appeared in Europe in 2007. A further spread in connection with advancing climate change is assumed.

Diseases spread through food and water

Vibro disease

An increase in Vibro infections has been observed, especially in the northern hemisphere . Vibrions multiply in brackish sea water especially from a water temperature of over 16 ° C. The percentage of northern coastal areas (40-70 ° N) that meet these conditions increased by 3.5% in the 2010s compared to the 1980s. At the same time, the number of Vibro infections increased in two high-risk areas, the Baltic region and the Northeast US, by 24% and 27%, respectively.

More parasites, bacteria and viruses

The incidence of diarrhea has been associated with high temperatures. The mechanisms are so far only known for Salmonella and Campylobacter . In both cases there is a clear seasonality of the infections, as well as a higher number of illnesses at warmer temperatures. In the case of rotavirus , seasonal effects were seen in temperate and subtropical regions. Rising temperatures can also lead to the growth of toxic algae .

Air quality

Damage to health from persistently high ozone levels

Many models predict that the ozone content in the air will rise as a result of rising temperatures, especially in metropolitan areas. Even small increases in the ozone concentration near the ground can impair health; various studies showed an increase in mortality. Authors of a 2003 European heatwave study estimated that 50% of deaths may be related to exposure to ozone and less to the heat itself.

Damage to health from acute air pollution

In addition, as a result of heat waves and droughts, there are more forest fires, which can lead to increased fine dust pollution for days to months. A study found that around 339,000 (260,000–600,000) premature deaths from particulate matter exposure as a result of forest fires occur globally each year , particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. Large-scale forest fires broke out in Australia in the southern hemisphere summer of 2019/2020. There was smoke development that was measurable in Chile and Argentina - thousands of kilometers across the Pacific. In Australia itself, the smoke contained high levels of soot particles, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxides and hydrocarbons. Based on experience with the forest fires in California in 2017, it can be assumed that there were harmful consequences. For example, in the relatively small forest fires in California - with a size of around 40 square kilometers - a five times higher concentration of the smallest soot particles (<2.5 micrometers) was measured. There was also an increase in hospital visits. During the ten-day fire period, the emergency department at Rady Children's Hospital in San Diego recorded an average of 16 more cases of children a day with breathing problems, coughs and asthma than the long-term comparison.

Aeroallergens

Warmer temperatures generally promote the production and release of inhalation or aeroallergens such as spores or pollen . Therefore, there could be effects on asthma or other allergic respiratory diseases such as allergic rhinitis , as well as effects on the occurrence of conjunctivitis or dermatitis .

Indirect effects, mainly mediated through human systems

Malnutrition

Nutrition is a function of agricultural production, socio-economic factors such as food prices and availability, and human diseases, particularly those that affect appetite, nutrient absorption and catabolism .

A distinction can be made between undernutrition as an aspect of individual health ( undernutrition ), and undernutrition as a national lack of nutrients ( undernourishment ), described as the percentage of the population that does not receive enough calories. Individual malnutrition can be chronic, which can lead to lifelong short stature , or acute, which results in fat and muscle loss, and in extreme cases, death.

The processes by which climate change affects human nutrition are complex. Higher temperatures and changes in rainfall can affect both the quantity and quality of the food grown. A study for African maize showed that the crop yield for every degree Celsius above 30 ° C (with optimal rainfall) decreased by 1%, in drought by 1.7%. A systematic review concluded that climate change poses a threat to grain production in countries where food supplies are already insecure. Climate change can also affect the food supply through the influence of heat on the productivity of farmers. Recent studies show that the growth time of various types of grain (winter wheat, maize, soybeans) worldwide decreased continuously between 1960 and 2017, parallel to the warming. The growth time of cereals is an indicator of later crop yields. The IPCC special report on climate change and land systems (2019) also points to the loss of crop yields in cereal species that has been observed for several years.

Diseases related to work and employment

The individual global risk of being exposed to a heat wave increased by a factor of 1.4 (2000–2017 compared to 1986–2005). The estimated global loss of work due to heat-related health problems was 153 billion hours in 2017 (an increase of 62 billion hours compared to 2000), 80% of which in the agricultural sector. Above all, regions in India, Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and South America that were already vulnerable were affected.

Mental illness

Extreme weather events such as floods, droughts or heat waves increase the burden on those who are already mentally ill and can also lead to mental illness in previously healthy people. These include both acute anxiety and stress reactions (such as post-traumatic stress disorder ) and longer-term effects such as generalized anxiety or depression . There was also an increased rate of suicides (especially violent) associated with heat .

Persistent environmental changes such as droughts can lead to chronic stress, stressful feelings of loss ( solastalgia ) and an increased incidence of suicides

Violence and conflict

Studies have shown connections between increased temperatures (especially longer heat waves) and increased aggressiveness and crime .

Various factors that can be related to the climate - such as soil degradation, water scarcity, population pressure, poverty and the poor functioning of state institutions - represent possible causes of armed conflicts or wars , which in turn are associated with health risks. However, the impact of climate change on armed conflict is (as of 2014) controversial.

Adaptation to climate change as health protection

Attempts to adapt to climate change that has already taken place or to be expected include, in terms of health, improving public health and health care, mapping of endangered regions (e.g. urban heat islands ), structural measures (e.g. expansion urban green spaces ), the establishment of early warning systems, disaster plans for food supplies, etc.

Health benefits of climate protection measures (co-benefits)

Some measures that are primarily aimed at reducing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere can also have significant health benefits (so-called “co-benefits”). This includes, among other things, a reduction in air pollutants through the conversion of energy production, energy efficiency and the control of landfills; better access to reproductive medicine facilities; a reduced meat consumption ; increased active mobility ; as well as the expansion of urban green spaces. It is an established state of research that the lower air pollution that comes with switching energy supplies to clean technologies brings huge improvements to public health, avoiding millions of deaths while generating trillions of dollars in economic welfare a year.

literature

Web links

See also

Individual evidence

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