Population Law

The population law is a theory developed by Thomas Robert Malthus in 1798 about global population growth , which is only offset by lower growth in food production .

General

Outside of jurisprudence (formal law ) one speaks of a law in the sciences when general statements that apply worldwide are derived from a theory, independent of location, time and culture .

A balance exists as long as the population in a state worldwide through or production of food before starvation and by the availability of drinking water before thirst can be preserved ( autarky ). An imbalance arises when, on the other hand, the population grows steadily faster than food production, or when population growth results in water scarcity . In order to maintain or restore the balance, theoretically restrictive measures to the detriment of population development and / or expansive measures in food production are conceivable.

content

The economist and pastor Malthus examined the relationship between population growth and land yield . The book, initially published anonymously by Malthus in 1798, appeared in its sixth edition in 1826. For the development of a theory or a law, it is first necessary to select Garrone's premises , their logical deduction and, based on this, a prognosis .

Premises

Malthus used three premises for his theory:

The food produced by humans follows a linear growth, the amount of food thus increases at the same time intervals by the same absolute amount.
The population, on the other hand, develops with geometric growth ( compound interest formula ), it therefore increases at the same time intervals by constant percentage increases.
The majority of people in the workers' and backsheet ( English lower classes ) is responsive to a material to improve their conditions of life through an increase in the birth rate .

Since every geometrically increasing row (population) exceeds every linear (food) from a certain point, the population has the tendency according to these premises to exceed its food margin, which brings with it a food gap.

forecast

Malthus condenses these three premises in logical deduction to the prognosis that the soil yield can only grow in arithmetic progression ( etc.), but the population grows in geometric progression ( etc.), with the result of hunger and poverty . Hunger, wars or epidemics increase the death rate as actual obstacles ( English positive checks ), so that the subsistence level is maintained. The resulting population trap is ultimately an obstacle to economic growth . The people staying only by late marriage or birth control (such as abstinence ) in the reproductive fertility as part of a preventive control ( English preventive checks ) limit. It was not improvements in production but rather restrictions in population development that the priest Malthus saw as a way of permanently fighting the food gap. ${\ displaystyle 1,2,3,4,5}$ ${\ displaystyle 1,2,4,8,16}$

Todays situation

The population law is not a natural law , as Malthus claimed, but it has the attributes of an economic law, especially in emerging and developing countries . There it is now generally accepted as verified for its main variables growth in food production and population growth. Higher productivity in soil yield, amelioration or land reclamation can not eliminate the shortage of food or water. Because the increase in food production is limited by desertification , natural disasters , soil acidification or non-renewable raw materials . Since the majority of the world's population now lives in emerging and developing countries, the issue of high birth rates on the one hand, and food and water scarcity on the other hand is one of the most pressing issues in economic and social sciences . In China , however, the instruments recommended by Malthus are used through family planning with the one-child policy and education promotion in the lower social classes.

State policy on the poor, according to Malthus, promotes the increase in the poor population because people only reproduce if a subsistence level would encourage precisely this behavior ( moral hazard ).

reception

The English Prime Minister William Pitt the Younger dropped his 1797 amendment to the Poor Law of 1784 out of consideration for the objections of those "whose opinions he was obliged to respect", referring to Jeremy Bentham and Malthus. Charles Darwin attached great scientific importance to the work of Malthus and applied the theory to the entire animal and plant kingdom as part of his theory of descent . On September 28, 1838, while reading Malthus' book (6th edition, 1826), he had the idea of applying the selection principle to organisms in their natural state. In 1848 John Stuart Mill supported population theory with the law of decreasing land yield . Neomalthusianism , influenced by Mill, promoted birth control contraceptives , which Malthus had rejected. In addition to Mill, William Stanley Jevons and Alfred Marshall were also positive about Malthus' demographic work.

The German economist Gustav Cohn ruled in 1882 about the population law: "The most unshakable and most important natural law of all previous economics". In 1897, Eugen Philippovich von Philippsberg commented on the experience that the population had a tendency “to go beyond the limit of the means of subsistence offered [food, i. Ed.] To multiply ”. Franz Oppenheimer turned out to be the greatest opponent when he wrote in 1901: "The population does not have the tendency to outgrow the means of subsistence, but rather the means of subsistence have the tendency to outgrow the population". In 1902 Johannes Conrad recognized the law as correct in essential parts and confirmed that "when the economy is favorable, the population increase increases immediately, while unfavorable conditions decrease it immediately". Werner Sombart , however, considered it to be “probably the stupidest book in world literature” in 1938. Julius Wolf did not deny in 1917 "that the reproductive instinct cannot operate indefinitely on earth, that the limited space on earth has set limits for it". John Maynard Keynes saw in Malthus' book a pioneering work "in sociological historiography". As early as 1919, Keynes recognized the trauma of the First World War from a Malthusian perspective as a struggle for scarce resources , triggered by the population growth in Germany. In 1933 he even suggested that 19th century economists should have listened to Malthus rather than David Ricardo , because then the world would be a smarter and richer place today. Colin Clark , who was rather opposed to the population law, made it valid for Russia in 1939: "A country with barren soil, but all the more fertile marriage beds in which the devil is still raging, undisturbed by Marxian dialectics". In 2006, Herwig Birg came to the conclusion that the Population Act neither contained a clear, non-trivial premise, nor was it shown under which conditions the theses could be verified by data.

literature

Thomas Robert Malthus: A Treatise on Population Law, or an Examination of Its Past and Future Impact on Human Welfare, along with an Examination of Our Prospects for Future Elimination or Alleviation of the Evils it Causes . 2 volumes, Fischer-Verlag, Jena 1924/25 ( digitized version )

Individual evidence

↑ Herwig Birg, The Failed Generation , 2006, p. 14
↑ Thomas Robert Malthus, An Essay on the Principle of Population , 1798/1924, p. 18
↑ Harald Wright / Melchior Palyi / JM Keynes, Population , 1924, p. 19
↑ Eve-Marie Engels, Charles Darwin , 2007, p. 70
^ John Stuart Mill, Principles of Political Economy , Volume III, 1848, p. 7
^ Robert J. Mayhew, New Perspectives on Malthus , 2016, p. 15
↑ Gustav Cohn, Economical Essays , 1882, p. 530
↑ Eugen Philippovich von Philippsberg, Floor Plan of the Political Economy , Volume I, 1897, p. 56
^ Franz Oppenheimer, The Population Law of the TR Malthus and the Newer National Economy , 1901, p. 161
↑ Johannes Conrad, Plan for the Study of Political Economy , Part II, 1902, p. 459 ff.
↑ Werner Sombart, Vom Menschen - An attempt at a spiritual anthropology , 1938, p. 298
↑ Julius Wolf, food space and number of people: A look into the future , 1917, p. 9
^ John Maynard Keynes, Economic Consequences of the Peace , 1919
↑ John Maynard Keynes, Essays in Biography , 1933, p. 144: English "if only Malthus, instead of Ricardo, had been the parent stem from which nineteenth-century economics proceeded, what a much wiser and richer place the world would be today . "
^ Colin Clark, A Critique of Russian Statistics , 1939, p. 51
↑ Herwig Birg, The Failed Generation , 2006, p. 29

[1] Herwig Birg, The Failed Generation , 2006, p. 14

[2] Thomas Robert Malthus, An Essay on the Principle of Population , 1798/1924, p. 18

[3] Harald Wright / Melchior Palyi / JM Keynes, Population , 1924, p. 19

[4] Eve-Marie Engels, Charles Darwin , 2007, p. 70

[5] John Stuart Mill, Principles of Political Economy , Volume III, 1848, p. 7

[6] Robert J. Mayhew, New Perspectives on Malthus , 2016, p. 15

[7] Gustav Cohn, Economical Essays , 1882, p. 530

[8] Eugen Philippovich von Philippsberg, Floor Plan of the Political Economy , Volume I, 1897, p. 56

[9] Franz Oppenheimer, The Population Law of the TR Malthus and the Newer National Economy , 1901, p. 161

[10] Johannes Conrad, Plan for the Study of Political Economy , Part II, 1902, p. 459 ff.

[11] Werner Sombart, Vom Menschen - An attempt at a spiritual anthropology , 1938, p. 298

[12] Julius Wolf, food space and number of people: A look into the future , 1917, p. 9

[13] John Maynard Keynes, Economic Consequences of the Peace , 1919

[14] John Maynard Keynes, Essays in Biography , 1933, p. 144: English "if only Malthus, instead of Ricardo, had been the parent stem from which nineteenth-century economics proceeded, what a much wiser and richer place the world would be today . "

[15] Colin Clark, A Critique of Russian Statistics , 1939, p. 51

[16] Herwig Birg, The Failed Generation , 2006, p. 29