Election to the eighth Thuringian state parliament

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The plenary hall of the Thuringian state parliament

The next state election in Thuringia would take place in the fall of 2024 if the electoral period ended normally.

After the state elections on October 27, 2019 , the government crisis in Thuringia in 2020 and an agreement between the red-red-green minority government and the CDU , an early election should take place on April 25, 2021. Due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic , the date was postponed to September 26, 2021 , parallel to the federal election and the elections of the state parliaments in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania .

For an early election, the dissolution of the state parliament is planned, which will then trigger an early election in accordance with the constitution of the Free State of Thuringia . The vote on this was planned for July 19, 2021. On July 16, the Left and the Greens withdrew the motion for dissolution. This was justified by the fact that four members of the CDU parliamentary group and two of the left parliamentary group had announced that they would not agree to the dissolution, which meant that the necessary two-thirds majority without the consent of the AfD was not secured.

organization

Election date

According to Article 50, Paragraph 1 of the Constitution of the Free State of Thuringia and Article 18 of the Thuringian Election Act for the State Parliament , state elections must take place on a Sunday or public holiday at the earliest 57 months after the start of the current electoral period in autumn 2019 and at the latest in their 61st month , i.e. in August 2024 at the earliest and in December 2024 at the latest.

An early election is to be carried out in accordance with Article 50, Paragraph 2 of the Thuringian Constitution, if the Landtag resolves to dissolve it with a majority of two thirds of its members at the request of one third of its members or if, after an unsuccessful vote of confidence by the Prime Minister, the Landtag does not decide to dissolve it within three Elects a new Prime Minister weeks after the resolution on the motion of confidence. The application for self-dissolution may be voted on no earlier than the eleventh and no later than the 30th day after submitting the application. An early re-election decided in this way must then take place within 70 days.

Suffrage

Changes

On July 5, 2019, the Thuringian state parliament passed an amendment to the state election law with the votes of the left, the Greens and the SPD, according to which in future state lists of the parties and political associations are to be alternately filled with women and men (women's quota). People who are registered as “diverse” in the civil status register would not have been affected by the regulation and could have run for candidates on any list. After the law came into force on January 1, 2020, the Thuringian Constitutional Court declared it unconstitutional in July 2020.

In March 2021, the state parliament decided that because of the corona pandemic, the parties, whose state lists are only allowed to vote after submitting supporters' signatures, only had to submit 500 instead of the previous 1,000 signatures.

Election mode

Each voter has two votes: With the constituency vote , a representative is elected in each constituency. With the regulations governing the allocation of seats in the parliament country vote the party list chosen a party. The mandate is calculated using the Hare-Niemeyer method .

Starting position

Previous choice

State election of Thuringia 2019
 %
40
30th
20th
10
0
31.0
23.4
21.7
8.2
5.2
5.0
5.5
Otherwise.

In the state elections on October 27, 2019 , the party Die Linke of incumbent Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow gained votes and was the strongest party with 31%. For the first time, the Left Party achieved the highest number of votes of all participating parties in a state election in reunified Germany, and for the first time it also achieved over 30% of the votes in an election since 1990.

The AfD under country leader Björn Höcke recorded the largest increase with 12.8 percentage points and became the second strongest party with 23.4% of the votes, followed by the CDU , which was the biggest loser with 21.8% and achieved its worst result since 1990.

The parties involved in government until 2019, the SPD (8.2%) and the Greens (5.2%), also suffered losses, with the previous Red-Red-Green state government losing its parliamentary majority. The FDP could - after 5 years of extra-parliamentary opposition - to return very close to 5.0066% of the votes in the Parliament.

Prime Minister election 2020

Results of the three ballots on February 5, 2020

On February 5, 2020, Thomas Kemmerich (FDP) was elected as the new Prime Minister with 45 out of 90 votes in the third ballot. The then incumbent Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow received 44 votes and there was one abstention. This is the second time in its history that the FDP, which is the smallest parliamentary group with the Greens, has a state prime minister.

The election led to a nationwide controversial debate, as Kemmerich was largely elected by the AfD, which, according to its own statements, voted for him as a whole, i.e. contributed 22 of the 45 votes. The AfD had sent its own candidate into the race, the then non-party honorary mayor of Sundhausen , Christoph Kindervater , but he did not receive a vote in the decisive third ballot after receiving 25 or 22 votes in the first two rounds. The child's father himself said after the election, "the plan worked out perfectly."

Kemmerich announced that he would hold talks on a coalition with the CDU, SPD and the Greens. He ruled out cooperation with both the left and the AfD, which would make a coalition with a majority impossible. The SPD and the Greens immediately rejected the offer because they did not want to work with a prime minister who had been brought into office by the AfD.

One day later, on February 6, 2020, Kemmerich announced his resignation. “The AfD tried to damage democracy with a perfidious trick. The Free Democrats will continue to fight for a policy change and against the extremes of right and left, ”said Kemmerich, justifying his announcement. The FDP parliamentary group intended to apply for the dissolution of parliament, which would lead to new elections. However, this application could only be submitted with the support of at least 30 of the 90 MPs; the FDP alone only has five MPs. Kemmerich resigned on February 8, 2020, but remained in office until a successor was elected on March 4, 2020.

Planned re-election of the state parliament

On February 21, 2020, the Left, CDU, SPD and Greens agreed on a “Stability Pact”. The new election of the Prime Minister was set for March 4, 2020, and it was also agreed that the state parliament would be re-elected on April 25, 2021. According to Article 50 of the Thuringian State Constitution, a resolution for the state parliament to dissolve itself could be made on February 15, 2021 at the earliest (the new election must take place within 70 days of the dissolution). In the election of the Prime Minister, Bodo Ramelow was elected for a further term in the third ballot. Since then he has formed the Ramelow II cabinet with the SPD and the Greens in a minority government . Because of the corona pandemic, it was agreed to postpone the date to the date of the federal election in September 2021.

On July 16, 2021 Die Linke and Die Grünen withdrew their support for the application for dissolution. This was justified by the fact that four members of the CDU parliamentary group and two of the left parliamentary group had announced that they would not agree to the dissolution, which meant that the necessary two-thirds majority was not secured. In addition, a member of the Die Linke group was injured so badly in an accident that she probably would not have been able to take part in the vote. The governing parties Die Linke, SPD and Greens declared that they would not make any further attempt to dissolve the state parliament, so that it would remain at the regular end of the legislative period in 2024.

Survey

Sunday question

Current polls

INSA survey from July 16, 2021
compared to the 2019 election (rounded to half a percent)
 %
30th
20th
10
0
27
22nd
21
9
8th
7th
6th
Otherwise.
Gains and losses
compared to 2019
 % p
   4th
   2
   0
  -2
  -4
−4
−1.5
−0.5
+1
+3
+2
+0.5
Otherwise.
Institute date left AfD CDU SPD Green FDP Otherwise.
INSA 07/16/2021 27% 22% 21% 09% 7% 8th % 6%
INSA 06/17/2021 26% 23% 22% 09% 6% 7% 7%
INSA March 17, 2021 30% 23% 19% 09% 8th % 6% 5%
Infratest dimap 02.03.2021 29% 23% 22% 10% 5% 6% 6%
INSA 02/03/2021 31% 23% 22% 07% 8th % 6% 3%
INSA 11/06/2020 33% 22% 22% 09% 6% 5% 3%
INSA October 15, 2020 33% 22% 22% 08th % 7% 4% 4%
State election 2019 October 27, 2019 31.0% 23.4% 21.7% 08.2% 5.2% 5.0% 5.4%

Older polls

January - September 2020
Institute date left AfD CDU SPD Green FDP Otherwise.
INSA 04.09.2020 33% 22% 22% 09% 5% 4% 5%
Infratest dimap 08/06/2020 32% 20% 24% 10% 6% 4% 4%
INSA 07/30/2020 35% 21% 22% 09% 6% 4% 3%
INSA 06/24/2020 35% 22% 22% 09% 6% 3% 3%
INSA 05/21/2020 34% 22% 21% 08th % 7% 5% 3%
INSA 04/02/2020 37% 23% 18% 07% 7% 4% 4%
INSA 03/12/2020 38% 25% 15% 08th % 6% 4% 4%
INSA 02/14/2020 40% 25% 14% 07% 6% 4% 4%
Infratest dimap 02/10/2020 39% 24% 13% 10% 5% 4% 5%
Forsa 02/07/2020 37% 24% 12% 09% 7% 4% 7%
INSA 02/06/2020 34% 23% 19% 06% 6% 7% 5%
Infratest dimap 01/28/2020 32% 24% 19% 08th % 6% 6% 5%
State election 2019 October 27, 2019 31.0% 23.4% 21.7% 08.2% 5.2% 5.0% 5.4%

course

Survey values ​​from the 2019 election to June 17, 2021

More surveys

Direct election of Prime Minister

Institute date 2019-10-27 Election evening Thuringia by Sandro Halank – 57.jpgBodo Ramelow ( left ) 2019-10-27 Election evening Thuringia by Sandro Halank – 61.jpgMike Mohring ( CDU ) Mario Voigt.jpgMario Voigt (CDU) 2019-10-27 Election evening Thuringia by Sandro Halank – 78.jpgBjörn Höcke ( AfD ) Other nobody / don't know
INSA 04.09.2020 42% - 7% 9% 10% 32%
INSA 03/12/2020 56% - - 16% - 28%
Forsa 02/07/2020 64% 9% - - 9% 18%
Infratest dimap 01/28/2020 60% 19% - 9% - 12%

Evaluation of possible coalitions

The values ​​of the surveys reflect the opinion of the respondents as to which of the surveyed coalitions they rate positively or negatively. The missing values ​​for 100% did not provide any information.

Institute date rating Left
SPD
Greens
Left
SPD
CDU
SPD
Greens
Left
CDU
CDU
AfD
FDP
CDU
AfD
Infratest dimap 08/06/2020 positive 45% 43% 36% 32% 21% 19%
negative 52% 52% 60% 63% 76% 78%
Infratest dimap 01/28/2020 positive 43% - - 33% - 19%
negative 54% - - 64% - 79%

Analysis of potential

Institute date Election chance left AfD CDU SPD Green FDP
INSA 02/03/2021 "for sure" 24% 17% 15% 3% 4% 3%
"Sure and maybe" 41% 26% 36% 27% 25% 16%
"Generally not" 23% 60% 22% 17% 29% 17%

Web links

Individual evidence

  1. a b mdr.de: Thuringia: Red-Red-Green and CDU reach agreement | MDR.DE. Retrieved February 21, 2020 .
  2. mdr.de: Political thriller in Thuringia: New elections - yes, no, maybe | MDR.DE. Retrieved June 14, 2021 .
  3. HCS-Content GmbH Germany: New elections: resolution of the state parliament targeted for mid-July - in southern Thuringia. Retrieved June 14, 2021 .
  4. tagesschau.de: Thuringia: Landtag is not dissolved - election is canceled. Retrieved July 16, 2021 .
  5. a b “No state elections in Thuringia in September” , on www.faz.net, accessed on July 16, 2021.
  6. landesrecht.thueringen.de
  7. Constituent meeting of the 6th Landtag, on thueringer-landtag.de
  8. Election dates in Thuringia , on wahlen.thueringen.de
  9. Seventh law amending the Thuringian state electoral law - introduction of parity quotation. Parliamentary documentation of the Thuringian State Parliament, accessed on October 29, 2019 .
  10. Parity regulation for electoral lists is unconstitutional. In: spiegel.de . July 15, 2020, accessed March 21, 2021 .
  11. Lukas C. Gundling: Thuringia , in: Roman Kaiser / Fabian Michl (Hrsg.): Landeswahlrecht. Suffrage and the electoral system of the German states , Nomos, Baden-Baden 2020, ISBN 978-3-8487-6455-6 , p. 469 ff.
  12. ^ Law for state elections changed in September. In: rtl.de . March 12, 2021, accessed March 20, 2021 .
  13. Lukas C. Gundling: Thuringia , in: Roman Kaiser / Fabian Michl (Hrsg.): Landeswahlrecht. Suffrage and the electoral system of the German states , Nomos, Baden-Baden 2020, ISBN 978-3-8487-6455-6 , pp. 463, 472 f.
  14. a b Kemmerich is the new Prime Minister in Thuringia - Ramelow voted out , on mdr.de
  15. Now the AfD has its first Prime Minister , on spiegel.de
  16. "The plan worked out completely" , on spiegel.de
  17. Kemmerich resigns on tagesschau.de
  18. Dissolution of the state parliament questionable - FDP is not eligible to apply on t-online.de
  19. a b Habeck on Kemmerich's resignation - "Was the absolute minimum". In: The world. Axel Springer SE, February 8, 2020, accessed on February 9, 2020 .
  20. "Everything back to the beginning" , on www.faz.net, accessed on July 16, 2021.
  21. a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s surveys on the state elections in Thuringia , on wahlrecht.de
  22. https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/wahlen-erfurt-umfrage-linke-buesst-in-thueringen-ein-cdu-etzt-zu-dpa.urn-newsml-dpa-com-20090101-210617-99 -26643
  23. SURVEY: RED-RED-GREEN MAJORITY IS SHRINKING IN THURINGIA , on thueringer-allgemeine.de, accessed on September 4, 2020.
  24. Pollsters : Stable majority for red-red-green in Thuringia , on e-pages.dk, accessed on March 12, 2020.
  25. CDU threatens debacle in new elections in Thuringia , on ntv.de, accessed on February 7, 2020.
  26. ↑ The popularity of Prime Minister Ramelow continues to grow , on mdr.de, accessed on January 28, 2020.
  27. Respondents are in favor of the red-red-green coalition , on mdr.de, accessed on August 6, 2020.
  28. Red-Red-Green continues without a majority in the state parliament , on mdr.de, accessed on January 28, 2020.
  29. Potential analysis from February 3, 2021 , on insa-consulere.de