Global warming pause

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Alleged pause in global warming: The selectively selected years 1998 to 2012 ( cherry picking ) served climate change deniers as an argument that global warming had come to a standstill.
The global warming trend is overshadowed by noise and oscillation of the climate system; selective consideration of short periods of time can lead to results that seem to run counter to the trend (shown: data from a climate model)

In the so-called controversy about global warming, a phase of relatively stagnating surface temperatures between 1998 and 2013, which apparently contradicted the trend towards global warming of the earth's surface, was referred to as the pause in global warming . It was mainly led by climate change deniers to deny the need for climate action. In science, the phenomenon is rejected as a natural fluctuation that does not call the trend into question (see statistical significance ). The claim that global warming took a break came around around 2008 and is based on the cherry-picking of deliberately selected start and end dates of short periods of time that are not climatologically significant. With the new temperature records from 2014, the myth of the climate change break collapsed.

The essential finding from a lot of research work - in addition to the artifacts of the evaluation - is that global warming has not paused, but that heat has been continuously absorbed, only temporarily almost completely from the oceans . This not only led to an accelerated rise in sea level, but also to a jump in temperature when part of the heat returned to the atmosphere with the El Niño 2015/16. There was also a strong El Niño with record temperatures in 1998/99, which the climate change deniers took advantage of by choosing the exceptional year 1998 as the starting point for their misleading time series . In fact, the alleged discrepancies with the climate models do not exist, and their prognoses for the temperature towards the end of the century or the reduction targets to limit the increase remain unchanged.

Finding

Although the concentration of greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere has been increasing since the middle of the 19th century, the resulting increase in surface temperature seems to persist. The pauses were most pronounced and longest in the years from 1880 to 1910, from 1940 to 1974 and from 1998 to around 2014. In the first two periods mentioned, surface temperatures decreased - despite an unchecked increase in the concentration of warming greenhouse gases observed during this period - globally even back.

However, the other climate variables such as sea level, heat content of the oceans or the volume of Arctic sea ice continued their trend. During the supposed warming pauses, global warming did not stop, only energy was diverted to other parts of the earth system.

causes

Investigations into the causes of a slowed rise in temperature on the earth's surface are still ongoing. In the fifth assessment report of the IPCC, the following main factors are given for a slowed rise in temperature:

  1. Internal variability of the climate system (e.g. redistribution of energy to the oceans)
  2. External drives that influence the earth's radiation balance (see radiative drive ):
  3. Data gaps and other problems in climate modeling

The fact that there was a particularly sharp rise in world temperatures in 1998 reinforces the impression of stable temperatures (since then), if at the same time the previous rise is ignored.

Internal variability

The natural property of the global climate to show a fluctuating temperature profile is caused by the Atlantic Multi-Decade Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific Decade Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For example, the occurrence of El Niño or La Niña events can raise or lower the global average temperature from one year to the next by 0.2 K and cover or intensify the annual warming trend of around 0.02 K for a few years . During La Niña events, heat is transported into deeper ocean layers (> 300 m), as has been confirmed by measurements and by means of climate simulations.

In a publication submitted in 2007, a group led by climatologist Mojib Latif predicted that extrapolating the natural fluctuations in the climate system described above would mean that the global average temperature would not or hardly increase by around 2017. In another publication, a group of authors predicted that the increased heat absorption of the oceans would lead to slower warming on the earth's surface for a total of 20 to 35 years. They led this effect to a subpolar in the region of the North Atlantic observed anomaly of salinity back, which have exhibited a period of 20 to 35 years in the past and during this time to a subduction warm water led into deeper ocean regions. A phase of increased warming can then be expected. They derived this from measurement data from the Argo program .

External drives

An external drive is the change in solar activity: it varies over an eleven-year cycle .

The influence of aerosols on the earth's radiation balance is more pronounced . The phases of global cooling between approx. 1940 and approx. 1975 and between 1998 and 2008 are mainly explained by an increased concentration of sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere. Wallace Broecker recognized the cooling effect of man-made air pollution as early as the 1970s and, against the background of a 35-year period of global cooling, speculated in his often-cited publication of August 8, 1975 that the cooling effect of the aerosols would be weaker than the warming effect of greenhouse gases is said to be that significant global warming is to be expected. He chose the title of his publication: Are we on the brink of a pronounced global warming? (German: are we on the threshold of pronounced global warming)? He turned out to be right, and the term "global warming" he first used became a synonym for man-made climate change.

Because of this cooling effect, researchers warn that a significant part of the warming effect of the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere is more or less "hidden", but would become apparent within a few years if the air was successfully kept clean.

Influence of measurement technology

Another factor that determines the measurement result comes from the fact that the earth is not completely covered with measuring stations and therefore islands of heat or cold can be located in regions whose data are not recorded by measurement. For example, a metrological artifact results from the fact that there are hardly any temperature measuring stations in the Arctic, which is why warming, which is primarily there, cannot be reflected in the global measurement data.

A research team from the Danish Meteorological Institute , which calculated successively larger polar regions from the temperature trends of tropospheric satellite data and the Hadley Center data set ( HadCRUT 4 ), locates the main cause of the lower trend since 2002 in low latitudes. The incomplete coverage of the Arctic in the measurement data is only part of the explanation. It is not dominant in satellite data and for the period since 2002.

The approximately 0.3K decrease in temperature around 1945 that appears in the Hadley Center data in the UK is likely due to an uncorrected error in the measurement of sea temperatures. Furthermore, errors in ship measurements could have simulated a weaker rise.

The stagnation of global surface temperatures from 1998 to around 2014

Development of the total heat budget of the earth. The illustration shows that there was also warming between 2000 and 2014, but that almost exclusively in the oceans
  • Warming of the water column 0–700 m
  • Warming of the water column 700–2000 m
  • Warming of the ice and land surfaces as well as the atmosphere

    • For the period from 1998 to 2013 (partly also in 2014), the public often spoke of stagnation in temperatures, which is used as evidence that global warming has stopped. This was evidenced by statements from NOAA and a publication by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory . NOAA wrote in its “State of the Climate” report in 2008: Using the simulations, warming pauses of 15 years and more can be ruled out with 95% certainty; this suggests that an absence of heating for this duration is necessary to create a discrepancy with the expected rate of heating .

    Trends in mean global surface temperature for various 15-year periods were, for example:

    1995–2009: Trend = 0.13 [0.02 to 0.24] ° C per decade, 1996–2010: Trend = 0.14 [0.03 to 0.24] ° C per decade, 1997–2011: Trend = 0.07 [-0.02 to 0.18] ° C per decade, 1998–2012: Trend = 0.05 [-0.05 to 0.15] ° C per decade.

    Global surface temperature: long-term trend and trend between 1998 and 2014

    Statistical analyzes of the global temperature profile by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) showed that an observation period of at least 17 years is necessary in order to be able to separate the influence of natural fluctuations from the "signal" of external influences, i.e. changes in radiative forcing. The researchers examined the temperature profile of climate models when they were not exposed to any external drives. While the average temperature did not change on long time scales, phases of global warming and cooling were repeatedly observed due to natural fluctuations, which could last for more than 10 years. However, there was no warming or cooling over a period of 17 years or more. In order to cause such a long heating or cooling phase, an external drive, such as. B. a change in the greenhouse gas or the aerosol concentration or another climatically effective element is necessary.

    Misrepresentations by climate change deniers

    The claim that global warming stopped in 1998 is one of the most frequently cited arguments by climate skeptics and climate deniers . It is based on temperatures from the HadCRUT data system, which resulted in record surface temperatures as a result of the very strong El Niños in 1998 . The claim is based on a cherry-picking of data, as in fact most of the warming is being absorbed by the oceans , where warming has continued unchecked. Although it has been used earlier, it was used in the run-up to the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in 2009 to create confusion among the public. Other similar claims were made later.

    In January 2015 z. B. On the blog Wattsupwiththat a guest comment by Christopher Monckton , in which the latter claimed that there has been no noticeable warming since October 1996. This line of argument was subsequently also used by US politicians such as B. Ted Cruz picked up. Monckton referred to the RSS dataset, which has been using satellite measurements to determine global temperatures since the late 1970s. In contrast to other datasets, which show a clear warming trend, this dataset only provides slight warming since 1998. This difference between the RSS data and other datasets is due to the fact that the RSS data only insufficiently take into account the satellite drift, which results in a systematic Underestimation of global warming results. Corrected for this methodological error, however, there is also considerable warming for RSS data, especially after 1998. It should also be noted that satellite measurements (UAH, RSS) and measurements on the earth's surface are not directly comparable, as they reflect different physical properties.

    The situation in the mirror of science

    Benjamin D. Santer , the main author of the above-mentioned study by the LLNL, replied in a guest comment at Wattsupwiththat that the statistical analysis only applied to a climatic development in which external drives remain unchanged, which is expressly pointed out in the publication. In the period between 1998 and 2014, however, the external drives did not remain unchanged, which can be seen in various, independent studies.

    The largely stagnant global temperatures in the decade between 1998 and 2008 are probably due to a combination of little warming anthropogenic and natural climate factors. During this time the solar activity was low and there were mostly La Niña conditions in the Pacific; As in the 1960s, the sharp rise in sulfur dioxide emissions also dampened the warming influence of steadily rising greenhouse gas concentrations. These were primarily due to coal burning in China, whose sulfur dioxide emissions had increased by 53% between 2000 and 2006 alone.

    Studies also showed that the Pacific trade winds had increased significantly since the 1990s. This development, which was accompanied by the fact that warm water was pushed into the depths and cold water was carried to the surface, was not shown in 48 projections of climate models.

    Climate simulations indicate that more than half of the influences leading to the warming pause were caused by the natural variability of the climate system, specifically with the negative phase of the Pacific Decade Oscillation . Via a long-range effect of quasi-stationary Rossby waves , this also led to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation , which in turn led to increased chances of winter cold snaps in Europe, an effect that also occurred during the winters 2009-2010, 2010-2011 and 2012-2013 could be observed.

    In a post on the science blog Realclimate from December 2014, climatologist Stefan Rahmstorf pointed out that there has been no warming break since 1998. A mathematical analysis of the trend since 1998 showed that the warming was not statistically significantly less, but it did occur. It is simply a trend that is overlaid by natural short-term fluctuations.

    In a news release from the National Centers For Environmental Information of NOAA on June 4, 2015, the authors state that, taking into account the temperature data from the last two years (2013 & 2014) and after improving the quality of the available temperature records, there is no warming pause in shows the trend data. The global warming rate in the past 15 years in the period 2000–2014 is just as high (0.116 ° C / decade), if not even higher than that in the second half of the 20th century in the period 1950–1999 (0.113 ° C / decade) , failed. The difference in the new global warming rates in the two very different time periods (15 and 50 years) is: 0.116 - 0.113 = 0.003 ° C / decade. If the difference is rounded down to two decimal places, the difference is 0.00 ° C / decade. The difference between the old global warming rates in the two very different time periods (15 and 50 years) is: 0.066 - 0.101 = −0.035 ° C / decade.

    A warming pause was only found in the air and possibly surface temperatures. Satellite measurements also showed for the period of the warming pause at the beginning of the 21st century that the earth emits less energy - mainly as thermal radiation - than is radiated from the sun. According to this, there is an energy surplus, which is largely absorbed by the oceans. A study published in Nature Geoscience in 2012 showed that around 90% of the surplus is absorbed by the oceans. The trend values ​​(° C / decade) of the global mean surface and upper air anomalies are displayed and compared from the different data sources and periods in the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, Section 2.2.4, Table 2.3).

    According to global measurements by NOAA and NASA-GISS, 2014, 2015 and 2016 were the warmest years in measured climate history; 2014 was by far the warmest year so far in Germany.

    Further development

    Global warming
    Warming over land areas (30% global)
    Warming over ocean surfaces (70% global)

    In a decadal climate forecast from January 2015, the British Met Office assumed that global mean temperatures, averaged over the five-year period 2015-2019, are expected to be between 0.18 ° C and 0.46 ° C above the average for the years 1981-2010 . For comparison: the years 2010 and 2014, which are considered to be the warmest years since the beginning of the recording, were 0.26 ° warmer than the 1981-2010 average.

    In a further analysis, a climate model was considered which was designed in such a way that it showed global warming of 0.2K per decade; this is the rate of warming at the end of the 20th century. The data from the climate model showed that a 10-year period is unsuitable for reliably diagnosing a warming or cooling trend, as this period is significantly influenced by natural fluctuations. The climate model used shows two periods of ten-year warming pauses every one hundred years, which are caused entirely by natural fluctuations in the climate. According to the Met Office, 30-year investigation periods are necessary to reliably identify the influence of man-made climate change. A global warming pause beyond the threshold of 20 years is - in the absence of other cooling factors - already regarded as unlikely.

    meaning

    The British Met Office showed in 2013 that the pause in the measured rise in global surface temperatures observed up to this point had not significantly changed the estimates of the TCS and ECS climate sensitivities . The value of the most likely warming has been reduced by only 10%, so that the climate change expected in 2050 will only be delayed for a few years.

    literature

    Web links

    Individual evidence

    1. ↑ "Despite the robust multi-decadal warming, there exists substantial interannual to decadal variability in the rate of warming, with several periods exhibiting weaker trends (including the warming hiatus since 1998)… Fifteen-year-long hiatus periods are common in both the observed and CMIP5 historical GMST time series "," Box TS.3: Climate Models and the Hiatus in Global Mean Surface Warming of the Past 15 Years ", IPCC, Climate Change 2013: Technical Summary , p. 37 and pp. 61-63.
    2. ↑ a b IPCC : Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Partial Report 1 (Scientific Basis) ( Memento of the original from 23 September 2015 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was automatically inserted and not yet checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. (German summary of the BMU , BMBF , IPCC and UBA ). October 2013. @1@ 2Template: Webachiv / IABot / www.de-ipcc.de
    3. ^ Stephan Lewandowsky et al .: The “Pause” in Global Warming: Turning a Routine Fluctuation into a Problem for Science . In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society . tape 97 , no. 5 , 2016, p. 723-733 , doi : 10.1175 / BAMS-D-14-00106.1 .
    4. ↑ Michael E. Mann , Tom Toles: The madhouse effect. How climate change denial threatens our planet, destroys our politics and drives us insane . Erlangen 2018, pp. 60–62.
    5. ↑ a b Thomas Karl et al .: Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus . In: Science . tape 348 , no. 6242 , 2015, p. 1469-1472 , doi : 10.1126 / science.aaa5632 . .
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    8. ↑ Chapter 9: Evaluation of Climate Models. ( English , PDF) In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pp. 769–772 . IPCC. 2013. Accessed August 31, 2014.
    9. ↑ See. A data gap was to blame. Why global warming did not happen for 15 years . In: n-tv , November 25, 2013. Accessed April 23, 2015.
    10. ↑ The Copenhagen Diagnosis (2009): Updating the World on the Latest Climate Science. I. Allison, NL Bindoff, RA Bindschadler , PM Cox, N. de Noblet, MH England, JE Francis, N. Gruber, AM Haywood, DJ Karoly, G. Kaser, C. Le Quéré, TM Lenton, ME Mann, BI McNeil, AJ Pitman, S. Rahmstorf, Eric Rignot , HJ Schellnhuber, SH Schneider, SC Sherwood, RCJ Somerville, K. Steffen, EJ Steig, M. Visbeck, AJ Weaver. The University of New South Wales Climate Change Research Center (CCRC), Sydney, Australia, 60pp, online (PDF; 3.5 MB)
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    16. ↑ X. Chen, K.-K. Tung: Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration . In: Science . 345, No. 6199, August 21, 2014, ISSN  0036-8075 , pp. 897-903. doi : 10.1126 / science.1254937 .
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    19. ↑ Hans Joachim Schellnhuber : Global warming: Stop worrying, start panicking? . In: PNAS . 105, No. 38, 2008, pp. 14239-14240. doi : 10.1073 / pnas.0807331105 .
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    21. ↑ Hans Gleisner u. a .: Recent global warming hiatus dominated by low-latitude temperature trends in surface and troposphere data . In: Geophysical Research Letters . 2015, doi : 10.1002 / 2014GL062596 .
    22. ↑ Kevin Cowtan, Peter Jacobs, Robert Way: Response to Gleisner et al. (2015): Recent global warming hiatus dominated by low latitude temperature trends in surface and troposphere data . ( PDF ).
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    24. ↑ NOAA "State of the Climate" page 23 The simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends for intervals of 15 yr or more, suggesting that an observed absence of warming of this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate.
    25. ↑ Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( English , PDF) IPCC. 2013. Accessed August 31, 2014. Page 5
    26. ^ Benjamin D. Santer , C. Mears, C. Doutriaux, P. Caldwell, PJ Gleckler, TML Wigley, Susan Solomon , NP Gillett, D. Ivanova, TR Karl, JR Lanzante, GA Meehl, PA Stott, KE Taylor, PW Thorne, MF Wehner, FJ Wentz: Separating signal and noise in atmospheric temperature changes: The importance of timescale . In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres . 116, No. D22, November 27, 2011, ISSN  0148-0227 , pp. N / a – n / a. doi : 10.1029 / 2011JD016263 .
    27. ↑ See Haydn Washington, John Cook: Climate Change Denial. Heads in the sand . Earthscan 2011, pp. 53-56.
    28. ↑ Michael E. Mann : The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines . Columbia University Press 2013, p. 185.
    29. ↑ Wattsupwiththat January 3, 2015: The great break Lengthens again
    30. ↑ scientific evidence doesnt support global warming, sn ted cruz says
    31. ^ Carl A. Mears, Frank J. Mentz: Sensitivity of Satellite-Derived Tropospheric Temperature Trends to the Diurnal Cycle Adjustment . In: Journal of Climate . tape 29 , 2016, p. 3629-3646 , doi : 10.1175 / JCLI-D-15-0744.1 .
    32. ^ Frank Wentz, Matthias Schabel: Effects of orbital decay on satellite-derived lower-tropospheric temperature trends . In: Nature . August 13, 1998, pp. 661-664. doi : 10.1038 / 29267 .
    33. ↑ James Hurrell, Kevin Trenberth: Satellite versus Surface Estimates of Air Temperature since 1979 . In: Journal of Climate . 9, September 1996, pp. 2222-2232. doi : 10.1175 / 1520-0442 (1996) 009 <2222: SVSEOA> 2.0.CO; 2 .
    34. ↑ Benjamin D. Santer's comment on the Watts Up With That website
    35. ^ Damian Carrington: Sulfur from Chinese power stations 'masking' climate change . In: The Guardian , July 4, 2011. 
    36. ^ A b Z. Lu, DG Streets, Q. Zhang, S. Wang, 3, GR Carmichael, YF Cheng, C. Wei, M. Chin, T. Diehl, and Q. Tan5: Sulfur dioxide emissions in China and sulfur trends in East Asia since 2000 . (pdf) In: Atmos. Chem Phys. . 10, July 2010, pp. 6311-6331. doi : 10.5194 / acp-10-6311-2010 . Retrieved August 9, 2013.
    37. ↑ John A. Church, Neil J. White, Leonard F. Konikow, Catia M. Domingues, J. Graham Cogley, Eric Rignot , Jonathan M. Gregory, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Andrew J. Monaghan, Isabella Velicogna: Revisiting the Earth's sea-level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008 . In: Geophysical Research Letters . 38, No. 18, September 2011, pp. 1944-2007. doi : 10.1029 / 2011GL048794 .
    38. Jump up ↑ Matthew H. England, Shayne McGregor, Paul Spence, Gerald A. Meehl, Axel Timmermann, Wenju Cai, Alex Sen Gupta, Michael J. McPhaden, Ariaan Purich, Agus Santoso: Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus . In: Nature Climate Change . February 9, 2014, ISSN  1758-678X . doi : 10.1038 / nclimate2106 .
    39. ↑ Shayne McGregor, Axel Timmermann, Malte F. Stuecker, Matthew H. England, Mark Merrifield, Fei-Fei Jin, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto: Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming . In: Nature Climate Change . August 3, 2014, ISSN  1758-678X . doi : 10.1038 / nclimate2330 .
    40. ↑ Kevin E. Trenberth, John T. Fasullo, Grant Branstator, Adam S. Phillips: Seasonal aspects of the recent pause in surface warming . In: Nature Climate Change . August 17, 2014, ISSN  1758-678X . doi : 10.1038 / nclimate2341 .
    41. ↑ Realclimate: Recent global warming trends: significant or paused or what? on-line
    42. ^ The recent global warming hiatus National Centers For Atmospheric Information of NOAA from June 4, 2015 Online
    43. ↑ Thomas R. Karl, Anthony Arguez, Boyin Huang, Jay H. Lawrimore, James R. McMahon, Matthew J. Menne, Thomas C. Peterson, Russell S. Vose, Huai-Min Zhang: Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus . (PDF) In: Science . 348, No. 6242, June 25, 2015, pp. 1469–1472. doi : 10.1126 / science.aaa5632 .
    44. ↑ Axel Bojanowski , Spiegel Online: "Climatic data corrected: And the earth is warming up" [1]
    45. ^ Norman G. Loeb et al., Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty . In: Nature Geoscience 5, (2012), 110-113, doi: 10.1038 / NGEO1375 .
    46. ↑ Third status report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, Section 2.2.4, Table 2.3) [2]
    47. ↑ Global Temperature Report: December 2016 [3]
    48. ^ The 10 warmest years in Germany since 1881. Reference period 1961-1990. (No longer available online.) In: Press release Annual Review 2014. German Weather Service, 2014, archived from the original on September 23, 2015 ; accessed on September 19, 2018 (DWD graphics).
    49. ↑ The recent pause in global warming: What are the potential causes? - Metoffice, July 2013 Online, PDF
    50. ↑ The recent pause in global warming: What are the implications for projections of future warming? Met Office, July 2013 Online, PDF