State election in Brandenburg 2019
The state election in Brandenburg 2019 on September 1, 2019 was the seventh election to the state parliament of Brandenburg . The state election in Saxony took place on the same day .
Starting position
Since the re-establishment of the state of Brandenburg in 1990, the SPD has been the strongest parliamentary group in the state parliament and the prime minister.
The previous election to the state parliament took place on September 14, 2014. The SPD became the strongest force ahead of the CDU and the Left , whereupon the red-red coalition, which had been in power since 2009 , was continued in the form of the Woidke II cabinet under Dietmar Woidke (SPD).
In the 2019 European elections , the AfD was the strongest force in Brandenburg with 19.9% of the valid votes, ahead of the CDU with 18.0% and the SPD with 17.2%.
Suffrage
The minimum age for the right to vote is 16 years.
According to Section 21 of the Electoral Act for the Brandenburg State Parliament, parties and political associations that did not take part in the last state election or the last federal election in the state must notify the state returning officer in writing of their participation at the latest on the 88th day before the election.
According to the state constitution and state election law, the election date must be a Sunday or a public holiday, at the earliest 57 and at the latest 60 months after the beginning of the election period. It was set for September 1, 2019.
The seats are distributed according to the Hare-Niemeyer method . Only parties and political associations whose share of second votes exceeds the threshold of 5% or who have won a direct mandate in a constituency ( basic mandate clause ) take part in the distribution of seats .
The state parliament basically consists of 88 members, 44 are elected by majority vote in the constituencies, the rest by proportional representation according to the state lists of the parties and associations. Overhang and compensation mandates can increase this number to a maximum of 110. The details are set out in the Brandenburg State Election Act.
Coalition statements before the election
The incumbent Prime Minister Woidke (SPD) only categorically rejected a coalition with the AfD after the election, but “all other variants cannot be ruled out”. Cooperation with the AfD was also rejected by all other parties. Vice Prime Minister Goerke (left) was open to a red-red-green alliance . Ingo Senftleben (CDU) saw “similarities” with the Greens.
Participating parties
The state electoral committee had approved 11 of 13 submitted state lists:
- Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD)
- Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU)
- The left (left)
- Alternative for Germany (AfD)
- Alliance 90 / The Greens (Greens)
- Brandenburg United Citizens Movements / Free Voters (BVB / Free Voters)
- Pirate Party Germany (Pirates)
- Free Democratic Party (FDP)
- Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP)
- Human Environment Animal Welfare Party (Animal Welfare Party )
- V-Party³ - Party for Change, Vegetarians and Vegans (V-Party³)
Pirates, ÖDP, Animal Welfare Party and V-Party³ had previously had to collect support signatures in order to obtain approval. The other parties are already represented in the Land and Bundestag and are therefore allowed to vote without signatures.
The lists of the party The PARTY and the Lusatian Alliance were rejected. There were several formal errors here, in particular the lack of the required supporting signatures was criticized.
Election result
State election 2019 | First votes | % | Direct mandates |
Second votes | % | Seats 2019 |
Seats 2014 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPD | 325.983 | 25.8 | 25th | 331.238 | 26.2 | 25th | 30th |
AfD | 279.745 | 22.2 | 15th | 297,484 | 23.5 | 23 | 11 |
CDU | 220.461 | 17.5 | 2 | 196.988 | 15.6 | 15th | 21st |
GREEN / B 90 | 130.035 | 10.3 | 1 | 136.364 | 10.8 | 10 | 6th |
The left | 153,722 | 12.2 | - | 135,558 | 10.7 | 10 | 17th |
BVB / Free Voters | 91.019 | 7.2 | 1 | 63,851 | 5.0 | 5 | 3 |
FDP | 46,067 | 3.6 | - | 51,660 | 4.1 | - | - |
Animal welfare party | - | - | - | 32,959 | 2.6 | - | - |
Pirate party | 1,084 | 0.1 | - | 8,712 | 0.7 | - | - |
ÖDP | 350 | 0.0 | - | 7,237 | 0.6 | - | - |
V party³ | - | - | - | 3,055 | 0.2 | - | - |
The party | 6,615 | 0.5 | - | - | - | - | - |
DKP | 526 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - |
German Conservatives | 217 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - |
Individual applicants | 6,789 | 0.5 | - | - | - | - | - |
valid votes |
1,262,613 98.6 |
100.0 |
44 | 1,265,106 98.8 |
100.0 |
88 | 88 |
invalid votes | 18,282 1.4 |
15,789 1.2 |
|||||
votes cast voter turnout |
1,280,895 61.3 |
100.0 |
1,280,895 61.3 |
100.0 |
|||
Eligible voters | 2,088,592 | 100.0 | 2,088,592 | 100.0 |
Coalition options after the election
Possible coalition | Seats |
---|---|
Total seats | 88 |
Absolute majority (from 45 seats) | |
SPD, CDU and Greens | 50 |
SPD, CDU and FW | 45 |
SPD, Greens and Left | 45 |
There is no longer a majority in the state parliament for the existing red-red coalition , which has governed Brandenburg since 2009. A red-red-green coalition , a Kenya coalition and a coalition of the SPD , CDU and BVB / FW were conceivable . Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke was re-elected on November 20, 2019 with the votes of a Kenya coalition made up of the SPD, CDU and Bündnis 90 / Die Grünen ( Woidke III cabinet ).
Votes compared to 2014 - behavior at the polls
2014
(Voter) |
SPD
2019 |
CDU
2019 |
left
2019 |
AfD
2019 |
Green
2019 |
BVB / FW
2019 |
Other
Parties 2019 |
Non-voters
2019 |
Deceased | Moved |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPD (315,000) | 178,000 | 14,000 | 11,000 | 14,000 | 17,000 | 6,000 | 9,000 | 19,000 | 32,000 | 15,000 |
CDU (227,000) | 20,000 | 108,000 | 5,000 | 29,000 | 7,000 | 8,000 | 8,000 | 11,000 | 18,000 | 13,000 |
Left (183,000) | 30,000 | 4,000 | 76,000 | 12,000 | 13,000 | 5,000 | 5,000 | 11,000 | 17,000 | 10,000 |
AfD (120,000) | 2,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 89,000 | 1,000 | 3,000 | 8,000 | 8,000 | 9,000 | |
Greens (61,000) | 9,000 | 1,000 | 2,000 | 34,000 | 2,000 | 4,000 | 1,000 | 2,000 | 6,000 | |
BVB / FW (25,000) | 2,000 | 1,000 | 3,000 | 1,000 | 13,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 2,000 | 1,000 | |
Other parties (55,000) | 3,000 | 4,000 | 1,000 | 6,000 | 3,000 | 3,000 | 22,000 | 5,000 | 2,000 | 6,000 |
Non-voters (1,108,000) | 65,000 | 43,000 | 24,000 | 115,000 | 22,000 | 20,000 | 31,000 | 629,000 | 71,000 | 88,000 |
First-time voters (2019) (100,000) | 7,000 | 4,000 | 5,000 | 8,000 | 12,000 | 2,000 | 10,000 | 49,000 | ||
Newcomers (192,000) | 17,000 | 18,000 | 11,000 | 19,000 | 24,000 | 3,000 | 11,000 | 89,000 | ||
All in all | 333,000 | 197,000 | 135,000 | 297,000 | 136,000 | 63,000 | 104,000 | 823,000 | 152,000 | 146,000 |
Surveys and Forecasts
Sunday question
Institute | date | SPD | CDU | left | AfD | Green | BVB / FW | FDP | Otherwise. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
State election 2019 | 09/01/2019 | 26.2% | 15.6% | 10.7% | 23.5% | 10.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.1% |
Research group elections | 08/29/2019 | 22% | 16.5% | 14% | 21% | 14.5% | 4% | 5% | 3% |
INSA | 08/27/2019 | 21% | 17% | 15% | 21% | 14% | 5% | 5% | 2% |
Research group elections | 08/23/2019 | 21% | 18% | 14% | 20% | 14% | 4% | 5% | 4% |
Infratest dimap | 08/22/2019 | 22% | 18% | 15% | 22% | 12% | 4% | 5% | 2% |
Forsa | 08/09/2019 | 17% | 18% | 14% | 21% | 16% | 4% | 5% | 5% |
INSA | 07/02/2019 | 19% | 18% | 16% | 19% | 16% | 3% | 6% | 3% |
Infratest dimap | 06/11/2019 | 18% | 17% | 14% | 21% | 17% | 4% | 5% | 4% |
INSA | 05/30/2019 | 19% | 20% | 18% | 20% | 12% | 3% | 5% | 3% |
Infratest dimap | 04/09/2019 | 22% | 20% | 16% | 19% | 12% | - | 5% | 6% |
INSA | 07.02.2019 | 21% | 21% | 17% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 5% | 3% |
policy matters | 10/01/2019 | 23% | 21% | 18% | 21% | 10% | - | 3% | 4% |
Forsa | 01/01/2019 | 20% | 19% | 17% | 20% | 12% | - | 5% | 7% |
State election 2014 | 09/14/2014 | 31.9% | 23.0% | 18.6% | 12.2% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 6.8% |
Older polls
2015 - 2018 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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|
course
Direct election of Prime Minister
Institute | date | Dietmar Woidke ( SPD ) | Ingo Senftleben ( CDU ) |
Andreas Kalbitz ( AfD ) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Research group elections | 09/01/2019 | 47% | 23% | - |
52% | - | 12% | ||
Research group elections | 08/29/2019 | 51% | 20% | - |
57% | - | 10% | ||
Research group elections | 08/23/2019 | 48% | 23% | - |
61% | - | 8th % | ||
Forsa | 08/09/2019 | 38% | 16% | 6% |
Infratest dimap | 06/11/2019 | 48% | 11% | 8th % |
Analysis of potential
Institute | date | Election chance | SPD | CDU | left | AfD | Green | BVB / FW | FDP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
INSA | 08/17/2018 | "for sure" | 14% | 11% | 13% | 15% | 4% | 2% | 3% |
"Sure and maybe" | 40% | 30% | 34% | 28% | 24% | 14% | 16% | ||
"Generally not" | 20% | 26% | 23% | 59% | 25% | 7% | 20% |
Constituency forecast
Institute | date | Direct mandates | SPD | CDU | left | BVB / FW | AfD | Green | FDP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
election.de | 08/30/2019 | 44 | 16 | 6th | 6th | - | 13 | 3 | - |
Wahlkreisprognose.de | 08/30/2019 | 22nd | 6th | 3 | 1 | 10 | 2 | - | |
election.de | 08/24/2019 | 16 | 9 | 6th | - | 12 | 1 | - | |
Wahlkreisprognose.de | 08/23/2019 | 22nd | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15th | 1 | - | |
Wahlkreisprognose.de | 08/21/2019 | 15th | 4th | 5 | 1 | 16 | 3 | - | |
election.de | 08/18/2019 | 9 | 13 | 8th | - | 11 | 3 | - | |
Wahlkreisprognose.de | 08/12/2019 | 12 | 5 | 4th | 1 | 18th | 4th | - | |
election.de | 08/11/2019 | 9 | 12 | 8th | - | 12 | 3 | - | |
election.de | 06/18/2019 | 9 | 6th | 4th | - | 20th | 5 | - | |
State election 2014 | 09/14/2014 | 44 | 29 | 10 | 4th | 1 | - | - | - |
See also
literature
- Franz Schausberger : State election in Brandenburg 2019 . In: IRE -Occasional Papers . No. 8/2019. Salzburg 2019. p. 251 - p. 258. ISBN 978-3-902557-20-9 .
Web links
- State Returning Officer Brandenburg
- State election in Brandenburg 2019 . Information from the Brandenburg State Center for Political Education
- Who can vote where? All candidates in all constituencies on the election portal of the Brandenburg State Center for Political Education
- Questions and answers about the state election . Offer from the Brandenburg State Center for Political Education
- State election in Brandenburg 2019 on the information portal on political education
Individual evidence
- ↑ a b results
- ↑ a b The next elections in Germany: In: Wahlrecht.de. September 14, 2018, accessed September 14, 2018 .
- ↑ BRAVORS - quick search. Accessed August 31, 2019 .
- ↑ Brandenburg State Election Act Version: January 28, 2004, change: February 11, 2014
- ↑ a b Rot-Rot would like to continue to rule together in Brandenburg , on domradio.de
- ↑ State election in Brandenburg: Coalition with the AfD is unpopular , on merkur.de
- ↑ CDU members should have a say in a possible coalition , on rbb24.de
- ↑ Editor: Eleven state lists approved for the Brandenburg state elections - Niederlausitz Aktuell. Accessed August 31, 2019 .
- ^ Eleven parties admitted to the state election in Brandenburg. Accessed August 31, 2019 .
- ↑ Who rules? These coalitions are likely in Saxony and Brandenburg , on handelsblatt.com
- ↑ Andreas Evelt, Marcel Pauly: Analysis of state elections: AfD mobilizes almost a quarter of a million non-voters in Saxony . In: Spiegel Online . September 2, 2019 ( spiegel.de [accessed September 2, 2019]).
- ↑ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z Overview of the polls for the state elections in Brandenburg , on Wahlrecht.de.
- ↑ CDU and AfD in Brandenburg on par, SPD only in 3rd place on bz-berlin.de
- ↑ website policy matters , on policy-matters.de
- ↑ Polls for the state elections in Brandenburg (#ltwbb) - Sunday question . In: Wahlrecht.de . ( Wahlrecht.de [accessed on August 17, 2018]).
- ↑ Survey values for Brandenburger SPD fall to a record low , on rbb24.de, accessed on November 15, 2017.
- ↑ Survey: SPD loses after rejection of district reform. Berliner Morgenpost , November 11, 2017, archived from the original on June 3, 2019 . .
- ↑ Brandenburg election analysis 2019 , on forschungsgruppe.de
- ↑ Politbarometer-Extra Brandenburg and Saxony August II 2019 , on forschungsgruppe.de
- ↑ Politbarometer-Extra Brandenburg and Saxony August I 2019 , on forschungsgruppe.de
- ↑ AfD still the strongest force in Brandenburg , on bz-berlin.de, accessed on August 9, 2019.
- ↑ Almost every second person wants Woidke at the Landesspitze , on rbb24.de, accessed on June 11, 2019.
- ↑ Potential analysis based on the Sunday question from August 17, 2018 , on the INSA website, accessed on August 17, 2018.
- ↑ First vote forecast for the Brandenburg state election - as of August 30, 2019 , election.de
- ↑ First vote forecast for the Brandenburg state election - as of August 30, 2019 , wahlkreisprognose.de
- ^ First vote forecast for the Brandenburg state election - as of August 24, 2019 , election.de
- ↑ First vote forecast for the Brandenburg state election - as of August 23, 2019 , wahlkreisprognose.de
- ↑ First vote forecast for the Brandenburg state election - as of August 21, 2019 , wahlkreisprognose.de
- ^ First vote forecast for the Brandenburg state election - as of August 18, 2019 , election.de
- ↑ First vote forecast for the Brandenburg state election - as of August 12, 2019 , wahlkreisprognose.de
- ↑ First vote forecast for the Brandenburg state election - as of August 11, 2019 , election.de
- ↑ First vote forecast for the Brandenburg state election - as of June 18, 2019 , election.de