State election in Brandenburg 2019

The state election in Brandenburg 2019 on September 1, 2019 was the seventh election to the state parliament of Brandenburg . The state election in Saxony took place on the same day .

Starting position

Since the re-establishment of the state of Brandenburg in 1990, the SPD has been the strongest parliamentary group in the state parliament and the prime minister.

The previous election to the state parliament took place on September 14, 2014. The SPD became the strongest force ahead of the CDU and the Left , whereupon the red-red coalition, which had been in power since 2009 , was continued in the form of the Woidke II cabinet under Dietmar Woidke (SPD).

In the 2019 European elections , the AfD was the strongest force in Brandenburg with 19.9% of the valid votes, ahead of the CDU with 18.0% and the SPD with 17.2%.

Suffrage

The minimum age for the right to vote is 16 years.

According to Section 21 of the Electoral Act for the Brandenburg State Parliament, parties and political associations that did not take part in the last state election or the last federal election in the state must notify the state returning officer in writing of their participation at the latest on the 88th day before the election.

According to the state constitution and state election law, the election date must be a Sunday or a public holiday, at the earliest 57 and at the latest 60 months after the beginning of the election period. It was set for September 1, 2019.

The seats are distributed according to the Hare-Niemeyer method . Only parties and political associations whose share of second votes exceeds the threshold of 5% or who have won a direct mandate in a constituency ( basic mandate clause ) take part in the distribution of seats .

The state parliament basically consists of 88 members, 44 are elected by majority vote in the constituencies, the rest by proportional representation according to the state lists of the parties and associations. Overhang and compensation mandates can increase this number to a maximum of 110. The details are set out in the Brandenburg State Election Act.

Coalition statements before the election

The incumbent Prime Minister Woidke (SPD) only categorically rejected a coalition with the AfD after the election, but “all other variants cannot be ruled out”. Cooperation with the AfD was also rejected by all other parties. Vice Prime Minister Goerke (left) was open to a red-red-green alliance . Ingo Senftleben (CDU) saw “similarities” with the Greens.

Participating parties

Top candidates of the parties represented in the state parliament
Dietmar Woidke
SPD
Ingo Senftleben
CDU
Kathrin Dannenberg
Left
Andreas Kalbitz
AfD
Ursula Nonnemacher
Greens
Péter Vida
BVB / FW

The state electoral committee had approved 11 of 13 submitted state lists:

Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD)

Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU)

The left (left)

Alternative for Germany (AfD)

Alliance 90 / The Greens (Greens)

Brandenburg United Citizens Movements / Free Voters (BVB / Free Voters)

Pirate Party Germany (Pirates)

Free Democratic Party (FDP)

Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP)

Human Environment Animal Welfare Party (Animal Welfare Party )

V-Party³ - Party for Change, Vegetarians and Vegans (V-Party³)

Pirates, ÖDP, Animal Welfare Party and V-Party³ had previously had to collect support signatures in order to obtain approval. The other parties are already represented in the Land and Bundestag and are therefore allowed to vote without signatures.

The lists of the party The PARTY and the Lusatian Alliance were rejected. There were several formal errors here, in particular the lack of the required supporting signatures was criticized.

Election result

Constituency results (first majority)

State election 2019	First votes	%	Direct mandates	Second votes	%	Seats 2019	Seats 2014
SPD	325.983	25.8	25th	331.238	26.2	25th	30th
AfD	279.745	22.2	15th	297,484	23.5	23	11
CDU	220.461	17.5	2	196.988	15.6	15th	21st
GREEN / B 90	130.035	10.3	1	136.364	10.8	10	6th
The left	153,722	12.2	-	135,558	10.7	10	17th
BVB / Free Voters	91.019	7.2	1	63,851	5.0	5	3
FDP	46,067	3.6	-	51,660	4.1	-	-
Animal welfare party	-	-	-	32,959	2.6	-	-
Pirate party	1,084	0.1	-	8,712	0.7	-	-
ÖDP	350	0.0	-	7,237	0.6	-	-
V party³	-	-	-	3,055	0.2	-	-
The party	6,615	0.5	-	-	-	-	-
DKP	526	0.0	-	-	-	-	-
German Conservatives	217	0.0	-	-	-	-	-
Individual applicants	6,789	0.5	-	-	-	-	-
valid votes	1,262,613 98.6	100.0	44	1,265,106 98.8	100.0	88	88
invalid votes	18,282 1.4			15,789 1.2
votes cast voter turnout	1,280,895 61.3	100.0		1,280,895 61.3	100.0
Eligible voters	2,088,592	100.0		2,088,592	100.0

Coalition options after the election

Possible coalition	Seats
Total seats	88
Absolute majority (from 45 seats)
SPD, CDU and Greens	50
SPD, CDU and FW	45
SPD, Greens and Left	45

There is no longer a majority in the state parliament for the existing red-red coalition , which has governed Brandenburg since 2009. A red-red-green coalition , a Kenya coalition and a coalition of the SPD , CDU and BVB / FW were conceivable . Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke was re-elected on November 20, 2019 with the votes of a Kenya coalition made up of the SPD, CDU and Bündnis 90 / Die Grünen ( Woidke III cabinet ).

Votes compared to 2014 - behavior at the polls

Electoral behavior in 2014 compared to 2019 (according to the number of voters) (Source: Infratest dimap / ARD (estimate based on pre-election and post-election surveys, election and population statistics))
2014 (Voter)	SPD 2019	CDU 2019	left 2019	AfD 2019	Green 2019	BVB / FW 2019	Other Parties 2019	Non-voters 2019	Deceased	Moved
SPD (315,000)	178,000	14,000	11,000	14,000	17,000	6,000	9,000	19,000	32,000	15,000
CDU (227,000)	20,000	108,000	5,000	29,000	7,000	8,000	8,000	11,000	18,000	13,000
Left (183,000)	30,000	4,000	76,000	12,000	13,000	5,000	5,000	11,000	17,000	10,000
AfD (120,000)	2,000	1,000	1,000	89,000		1,000	3,000	8,000	8,000	9,000
Greens (61,000)	9,000		1,000	2,000	34,000	2,000	4,000	1,000	2,000	6,000
BVB / FW (25,000)	2,000	1,000		3,000	1,000	13,000	1,000	1,000	2,000	1,000
Other parties (55,000)	3,000	4,000	1,000	6,000	3,000	3,000	22,000	5,000	2,000	6,000
Non-voters (1,108,000)	65,000	43,000	24,000	115,000	22,000	20,000	31,000	629,000	71,000	88,000
First-time voters (2019) (100,000)	7,000	4,000	5,000	8,000	12,000	2,000	10,000	49,000
Newcomers (192,000)	17,000	18,000	11,000	19,000	24,000	3,000	11,000	89,000
All in all	333,000	197,000	135,000	297,000	136,000	63,000	104,000	823,000	152,000	146,000

Surveys and Forecasts

Sunday question

Institute	date	SPD	CDU	left	AfD	Green	BVB / FW	FDP	Otherwise.
State election 2019	09/01/2019	26.2%	15.6%	10.7%	23.5%	10.8%	5.0%	4.1%	3.1%
Research group elections	08/29/2019	22%	16.5%	14%	21%	14.5%	4%	5%	3%
INSA	08/27/2019	21%	17%	15%	21%	14%	5%	5%	2%
Research group elections	08/23/2019	21%	18%	14%	20%	14%	4%	5%	4%
Infratest dimap	08/22/2019	22%	18%	15%	22%	12%	4%	5%	2%
Forsa	08/09/2019	17%	18%	14%	21%	16%	4%	5%	5%
INSA	07/02/2019	19%	18%	16%	19%	16%	3%	6%	3%
Infratest dimap	06/11/2019	18%	17%	14%	21%	17%	4%	5%	4%
INSA	05/30/2019	19%	20%	18%	20%	12%	3%	5%	3%
Infratest dimap	04/09/2019	22%	20%	16%	19%	12%	-	5%	6%
INSA	07.02.2019	21%	21%	17%	19%	10%	4%	5%	3%
policy matters	10/01/2019	23%	21%	18%	21%	10%	-	3%	4%
Forsa	01/01/2019	20%	19%	17%	20%	12%	-	5%	7%
State election 2014	09/14/2014	31.9%	23.0%	18.6%	12.2%	6.2%	2.7%	1.5%	6.8%

Older polls

2015 - 2018

Institute	date	SPD	CDU	left	AfD	Green	FDP	Otherwise.
Infratest dimap	19.09.2018	23%	21%	17%	23%	7%	5%	4%
INSA	08/17/2018	23%	18%	18%	21%	8th %	5%	7%
Infratest dimap	April 18, 2018	23%	23%	17%	22%	7%	4%	4%
Infratest dimap	11/15/2017	23%	22%	17%	20%	6%	7%	5%
Forsa	11/11/2017	25%	22%	18%	18%	6%	5%	6%
Infratest dimap	June 21, 2017	28%	25%	18%	15%	6%	3%	5%
Forsa	January 18, 2017	30%	21%	15%	18%	7%	4%	5%
Infratest dimap	11/30/2016	30%	25%	17%	16%	6%	-	6%
Forsa	09/30/2016	30%	17%	17%	20%	6%	4%	6%
Infratest dimap	05/25/2016	29%	23%	17%	20%	6%	-	5%
Forsa	03/19/2016	31%	19%	16%	19%	7%	3%	5%
Forsa	04/01/2016	36%	21%	18%	11%	6%	-	8th %
Infratest dimap	11/18/2015	33%	23%	19%	13%	6%	-	6%
Forsa	09/19/2015	35%	24%	20%	7%	7%	-	7%
Infratest dimap	02/11/2015	34%	25%	19%	10%	5%	-	7%
Forsa	04/01/2015	34%	22%	19%	8th %	8th %	-	9%
State election 2014	09/14/2014	31.9%	23.0%	18.6%	12.2%	6.2%	1.5%	9.5%

course

Sunday questions on the state elections from Infratest Dimap (D), INSA (I), Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (G), pmg - policymatters (P) and Forsa (F) and the result of the 2014 election.

Direct election of Prime Minister

Institute	date	Dietmar Woidke ( SPD )	Ingo Senftleben ( CDU )	Andreas Kalbitz ( AfD )
Research group elections	09/01/2019	47%	23%	-
Research group elections	09/01/2019	52%	-	12%
Research group elections	08/29/2019	51%	20%	-
Research group elections	08/29/2019	57%	-	10%
Research group elections	08/23/2019	48%	23%	-
Research group elections	08/23/2019	61%	-	8th %
Forsa	08/09/2019	38%	16%	6%
Infratest dimap	06/11/2019	48%	11%	8th %

Analysis of potential

Institute	date	Election chance	SPD	CDU	left	AfD	Green	BVB / FW	FDP
INSA	08/17/2018	"for sure"	14%	11%	13%	15%	4%	2%	3%
		"Sure and maybe"	40%	30%	34%	28%	24%	14%	16%
		"Generally not"	20%	26%	23%	59%	25%	7%	20%

Constituency forecast

Institute	date	Direct mandates	SPD	CDU	left	BVB / FW	AfD	Green	FDP
election.de	08/30/2019	44	16	6th	6th	-	13	3	-
Wahlkreisprognose.de	08/30/2019		22nd	6th	3	1	10	2	-
election.de	08/24/2019		16	9	6th	-	12	1	-
Wahlkreisprognose.de	08/23/2019		22nd	3	2	1	15th	1	-
Wahlkreisprognose.de	08/21/2019		15th	4th	5	1	16	3	-
election.de	08/18/2019		9	13	8th	-	11	3	-
Wahlkreisprognose.de	08/12/2019		12	5	4th	1	18th	4th	-
election.de	08/11/2019		9	12	8th	-	12	3	-
election.de	06/18/2019		9	6th	4th	-	20th	5	-
State election 2014	09/14/2014	44	29	10	4th	1	-	-	-

literature

Franz Schausberger : State election in Brandenburg 2019 . In: IRE -Occasional Papers . No. 8/2019. Salzburg 2019. p. 251 - p. 258. ISBN 978-3-902557-20-9 .

Web links

State Returning Officer Brandenburg
State election in Brandenburg 2019 . Information from the Brandenburg State Center for Political Education
Who can vote where? All candidates in all constituencies on the election portal of the Brandenburg State Center for Political Education
Questions and answers about the state election . Offer from the Brandenburg State Center for Political Education
State election in Brandenburg 2019 on the information portal on political education

Individual evidence

↑ ^a ^b results

↑ ^a ^b The next elections in Germany: In: Wahlrecht.de. September 14, 2018, accessed September 14, 2018 .

↑ BRAVORS - quick search. Accessed August 31, 2019 .

↑ Brandenburg State Election Act Version: January 28, 2004, change: February 11, 2014

↑ ^a ^b Rot-Rot would like to continue to rule together in Brandenburg , on domradio.de

↑ State election in Brandenburg: Coalition with the AfD is unpopular , on merkur.de

↑ CDU members should have a say in a possible coalition , on rbb24.de

↑ Editor: Eleven state lists approved for the Brandenburg state elections - Niederlausitz Aktuell. Accessed August 31, 2019 .

^ Eleven parties admitted to the state election in Brandenburg. Accessed August 31, 2019 .

↑ Who rules? These coalitions are likely in Saxony and Brandenburg , on handelsblatt.com

↑ Andreas Evelt, Marcel Pauly: Analysis of state elections: AfD mobilizes almost a quarter of a million non-voters in Saxony . In: Spiegel Online . September 2, 2019 ( spiegel.de [accessed September 2, 2019]).

↑ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j ^k ^l ^m ⁿ ^o ^p ^q ^r ^s ^t ^u ^v ^w ^x ^y ^z Overview of the polls for the state elections in Brandenburg , on Wahlrecht.de.