National debt ratio in Germany

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The national debt ratio of Germany is a key figure that shows the relationship between the national debt of Germany at federal, state and municipal level as well as in social security on the one hand and Germany's nominal gross domestic product on the other.

Development in recent years

Due to the financial crisis, Germany's national debt ratio rose significantly between 2008 and 2010, as the government's debt grew sharply, while overall economic output fell by 5.1 percent in 2009: the national debt of 1.6602 trillion euros at the end of 2008 still corresponded to a national debt ratio of 64 .9 percent, the national debt ratio at the end of 2010 reached a historical high of 80.3 percent, given a debt level of EUR 2.0674 trillion.

From this high at the end of 2010, the government debt ratio has fallen significantly to this day. At the end of 2012 it was 79.0 percent with the debt level continuing to rise in absolute numbers to 2.1736 trillion euros; At the end of 2014 it was 74.7 percent with a debt level of 2.1700 trillion euros according to Eurostat and 73.1 percent with a debt level of 2.1230 trillion euros according to calculations by the IMF . It turns out that due to the relatively stable positive economic growth (1.6 percent in 2014) the ratio (minus 7.2 percentage points according to IMF extrapolation based on the 2010 high) is stronger than the absolute debt level (minus 2.3 percentage points from the high 2012) is decreasing.

At the end of 2014, the German government debt ratio of 74.7 percent was well below the average ratios for the euro zone (91.9 percent) and the European Union (86.8 percent).

For 2014 as a whole, Germany posted a budget surplus of 19.4 billion euros or 0.7 percent of the gross domestic product. However, the debt rose slightly by 4 billion euros to 2.170 trillion euros, as several billions went into aid measures such as the German participation in the euro rescue fund ESM . Historically low interest rates play a major role in the positive development of recent years , which have significantly reduced government spending.

According to Eurostat, at the end of the 2nd quarter of 2016 the German government debt ratio was only 70.1 percent with a debt level of 2.1682 trillion euros. It was thus still well below the average rates for the euro zone (91.2 percent) and for the European Union (84.3 percent).

Forecast development

In April 2017, the International Monetary Fund predicted that Germany's national debt ratio would decline to 59.1 percent by the end of 2019, with a debt level of EUR 2.0184 trillion. This would mean that Germany would again achieve the Maastricht criterion of no more than 60 percent. The IMF assumed that by the end of 2022 the debt ratio would fall further to 50.9 percent with a debt level of 1.8992 trillion euros. The introduction of a debt brake for the federal government from 2016 and for the states from 2020 is intended to further reduce the national debt ratio .

In the course of the euro crisis, and especially the Greek sovereign debt crisis, the Federal Republic of Germany took on billions of euros in liability risks that have not yet been included in the national debt ratio. If a liability case occurs (e.g. in the course of a Grexit ), this would increase the national debt and the national debt ratio of the Federal Republic. The European Central Bank (ECB) warns of the consequences of shadow debt in the euro countries. The guarantees for other EU member states and its own banks could increase Germany's debts by 11.2 percent to a national debt ratio of around 90 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) (as of 2013). To the official German national debt of 1.7 trillion euros (as of December 2011) around 5 trillion euros of hidden debts had to be added. In order to pay off both types of debt, either tax revenue would have to be increased by 12 percent or transfer payments would have to be reduced by 11 percent.

Graphical representation

Historical national debt ratio of Germany from 2002 to 2015 including estimate by the IMF by 2021

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ a b c d International Monetary Fund: General government gross debt (National currency, Percent of GDP) , World Economic Outlook Database, April 2015.
  2. ↑ a b c d Eurostat: Government deficits in the euro area and the EU28 at 2.4% and 2.9% of GDP , respectively , press release of April 21, 2015, accessed on April 21, 2015.
  3. ↑ Because of the euro rescue: German debts rise despite billions in surplus , faz.net from April 1, 2015.
  4. ↑ Bundesbank: State saves 120 billion euros through low interest rates , Der Spiegel of August 11, 2014.
  5. ↑ a b Eurostat: Public debt in the euro area fell to 91.2% of GDP , press release of October 24, 2016, accessed on October 31, 2016.
  6. ↑ International Monetary Fund: Report for Selected Countries and Subjects. In: World Economic Outlook Database. April 2017, accessed June 6, 2019 .
  7. ^ Franz Schuster: Europe in Transition . epubli, 2013, p. 89 ( limited preview in Google Book search).
  8. ↑ Bernd Raffelhüschen , Stefan Moog: Honorable States ?, The German Generation Balance Sheet in International Comparison , Arguments on Market Economy and Politics No. 110, May 2012, p. 4.