2007 Australian federal election

2007 Australian federal election

The 2007 election for the federal Parliament of Australia will take place on Saturday 24 November. The Prime Minister John Howard announced the date on Sunday 14 October.

The opposition Social Democratic Australian Labor Party, currently led by Kevin Rudd and deputy leader Julia Gillard, will be the main challenger to the incumbent centre-right coalition government in power since the 1996 election, currently led by the Prime Minister and leader of the Liberal Party of Australia, John Howard, and his coalition partner the Deputy Prime Minister and leader of the National Party of Australia, Mark Vaile.

Following the 2004 election outcome, the coalition held 87 seats, Labor held 60 seats, with three held by independents, in the 150-member House of Representatives. Labor will need a swing of 16 additional seats to form a majority government. A swing of 15 seats would still see a Labor win with an independent become speaker, as Labor on 75 seats would prevent any minority coalition government from having the numbers to form.

In the 76-member Senate, where 40 seats are up for election in 2007, a number of minor parties and independents have a realistic chance of winning seats. The coalition currently holds 39 of the 76 seats, a one seat majority. Recent polling suggests the coalition could lose a senator in the ACT and thus lose their senate control immediately after the election, since territory senators do not wait until June 2008 to take their seats.

Key dates

• Prorogation of Parliament: 12 noon, 15 October
• Dissolution of House of Representatives: 12 noon, 17 October
• Issue of electoral writs: 17 October
• Close of rolls (if not currently on roll): 8 p.m., 17 October
• Close of rolls (if currently on roll and updating details): 8 p.m., 23 October
• Close of nominations: 12 noon, 1 November
• Declaration of nominations: 12 noon, 2 November
• Polling Day: 24 November
• Return of writs: On or before 25 January 2008
• First meeting of the 42nd Parliament: On or before 24 February 2008
• New state senators begin their terms: 1 July 2008 (the terms of territory senators start on Polling Day).

Under the provisions of the Constitution, the current House of Representatives may continue for a maximum of three years from the first meeting of the House after the previous federal election. The first meeting of the 41st Parliament after the 2004 election was on 16 November 2004, hence the parliament would have expired on 15 November 2007 had it not been dissolved earlier. There must be a minimum of 33 days and a maximum of 68 days between the dissolution of the House of Representatives and the day of the election. Prime Minister Howard opted for a 39-day campaign.

The Prime Minister of the day chooses the election date and requests the Governor-General to dissolve the House and issue the writs for the election. On 14 October, John Howard gained the agreement of the Governor-General, Major-General Michael Jeffery, to dissolve the House of Representatives and hold a general election for the House and half the Senate on 24 November 2007.

The last date of voter enrollment or update of enrollment information was reduced from 7 days to 1 working day during the last term of parliament. When the election was announced, the writ was not issued the next day, but on the following Wednesday. This kept the roll open for three days, during which 77,000 enrolment additions were processed.

Polling

Preferred Prime Minister polling since the previous election by Newspoll 1987-2007 (as published in The Australian newspaper) and ACNielsen 1996-2007 (as published in Fairfax newspapers).

Two party preferred polling since the previous election by Newspoll 1993-2007 (as published in The Australian newspaper), ACNielsen 1996-2007 (as published in Fairfax newspapers), Roy Morgan 1996-2007 and Galaxy 2004-2007.

Roy Morgan, Newspoll, ACNeilsen and Galaxy timegraph polling shows Labor leading the coalition in responses to a number of key poll questions since mid-2006, with Labor consolidating its lead after Rudd assumed the Labor leadership, at which point Rudd also assumed the polling position on the question of preferred Prime Minister.

ACNielsen polling in March 2007 had Rudd's personal approval rating at 67%, which made him the most popular opposition leader in the poll's 35-year history, with Newspoll (News Limited) 2PP polling the highest in its history. The largest 2PP election result for the ALP in its history was at the 1943 election on an estimate of 58.2 percent.

A weighted collaboration of all polling since Rudd assumed the ALP leadership shows an average Labor 2PP figure of 57% compared with the coalition's 43%, and Rudd's consistent outpolling of Howard as preferred Prime Minister, something not achieved under previous leaders Mark Latham, Kim Beazley or Simon Crean.

Possums Pollytics, an anonymous weblog, states that due to the uneven nature of the swings, where safe Liberal seats are swinging up to 14.6% with safe Labor seats swinging around only 4.1%, the Labor party stands to potentially end up with a maximum of 106 of the 150 lower house seats.

Polling consistently showed that the economy and national security are the Coalition's strong areas. In August 2007 an Ipsos poll showed 39% of voters thought Labor was a better economic manager, compared to 36% for the coalition, with 25% undecided.

The morning of the election announcement, a special Sun-Herald Taverner survey of 979 people across New South Wales and Victoria had been released, indicating a Labor 2PP of 59 percent, with the 18-29 year old category voting at 72 percent. The fortnightly Newspoll was released the day after the election was called, showing the 2PP remaining steady at Labor 56-44 Liberal. Howard increased his Preferred PM rating up one percent to 39 percent, while Rudd increased his rating up one percent to 48 percent. On the day after the election was called, Centrebet had odds of 1.47 on Labor, with 2.70 on the coalition. Half way through the campaign, with no overall change in the polls, saw Centrebet odds for Labor shorten to 1.29, with the Liberals on 3.60.

Issues

The most comprehensive changes to Australia's industrial relations system since federation, known as WorkChoices, were enacted by the Howard Liberal government in December 2005, and came in to effect in March 2006.

File:RecordLows.JPG

Electoral advertising shown on Australian free-to-air and pay TV in 2004 by the Liberal Party indicating the commitment of a Howard Liberal government to "keep interest rates at record lows". Labor has criticised this after six interest rate rises since the October 2004 federal election. In response, Mr Howard stated in August 2007 "[Rudd] can scour every transcript, and I will make them available, of every interview that I gave during that election campaign and he will find no such commitment." In October 2007, Mr Howard "admitted breaking a promise to keep interest rates at record lows". During the 2004 campaign, Howard was also cited as giving the same promise, personally, on radio. November 2007 saw a the sixth rate rise since the 2004 election, to a 10-year high of 6.75 percent.

Roy Morgan polling in June 2007 revealed WorkChoices as the biggest reason behind the Labor vote, with a fear of union dominance and support for coalition economic management policy as the biggest reasons behind the coalition vote. Attempts by the Liberal Party to have business groups fund advertisements to counter union funded anti-WorkChoices advertisements suggest that industrial relations will be a key battleground at the 2007 election. The share of voters concerned about industrial relations grew from 31% to 53% in the two years to June 2006, with around three fifths of voters backing Labor's ability to handle the issue over the Liberal Party.

A Newspoll released in June 2006 identified health and Medicare as the most important issue for voters, with 83% of respondents rating it "very important". Other key issues included education (79%), the economy (67%), the environment (60%) and national security (60%). Taxation and interest rates, key issues in previous campaigns, were rated very important by 54% and 51% respectively. Immigration, a key issue in 2001, scored 43%. The poll showed that voters considered Labor better-placed to handle health and education, albeit by a small margin, but gave the government strong backing on the economy and national security.

The environment, in particular climate change and water management, will likely be a major issue. Labor's pledge to spearhead construction of a $4.7 billion fibre-to-the-node broadband network suggests that infrastructure could also figure prominently on the campaign trail.

On 7 June in a speech promoting the government's handling of the economy, Treasurer Peter Costello recalled the learner driver slogan of the 2004 election: "This [the economy] is like a highly engineered racing car and I tell you what, I wouldn't be putting an L-plate driver in the cockpit at the moment". August 2007 saw a 0.25% interest rate rise to 6.5%, the fifth rise since the last election. Labor used the news to argue that the Coalition could not be trusted to keep interest rates low, while Costello argued that interest rates would be higher under Labor. Inflation figures released on 24 October indicated underlying inflation was higher than expected, which resulted in seven of eight financial companies (ie: JPMorgan) believing there will be an interest rate rise when the reserve bank meets in the middle of November, which if rates rose would be the first during an election campaign.

Rudd has advocated four-year fixed terms for federal parliaments if elected. Howard supports four-year terms but opposes fixed election dates. Any change would require approval by referendum. Another referendum was suggested by John Howard on the eve of the election campaign, in order to include a statement of reconciliation to be included in the preamble of the constitution.

The campaign

Week 1

John Howard announced the election at a press conference in Canberra on Sunday 14 October, after meeting the Governor-General at Government House. His theme concentrated on leadership, stating that the nation "does not need new leadership, it does not need old leadership. It needs the right leadership". He also stated that his government would strive to achieve full employment, something he argued was less likely to eventuate under Kevin Rudd. In his response, Rudd also concentrated on leadership, outlining his case for "new leadership”. He argued that the government had 'lost touch' with the electorate, and that his party was best suited to deal with challenges that lie ahead. The Liberals other slogan, "go for growth" was launched after announcing the largest tax cut in Australian history.Newspaper columnists have have portrayed a rise in the interest rate and oil price rises as "not factored into campaign strategy".

On the first full day of the campaign, Howard and Costello announced a 'major restructuring of the income tax system' with tax cuts worth $35 billion over three years and a tax cut "goal" for the next five years. A few days later, Rudd released his alternative policy which supported the reform measures, however offered education and health tax rebates instead of immediate cuts to the top rate as proposed by the Liberal Party, instead favouring a slower progression for the top rate.

During the latter part of the week attention was drawn to the question of union influence over the ALP after the launch of the Liberal party's first campaign ads. Labor responded with commercials attacking the Liberal's campaign as 'smears'. This was disputed by John Howard. One of the Liberal Party election commercials had to be corrected after it falsely accused Wayne Swan and Craig Emerson of previously being union officials.

The week saw contradictory poll results in terms of the scale of Labor's lead. Galaxy showed a Labor 53-47 Coalition 2PP result, with a 2 percent gap on primaries, while ACNeilsen saw a two percent swing to the coalition, reducing Labor's lead to 54-46. Rudd took a five-point dive on the question of preferred Prime Minister. However, a Newspoll sampling 1700 voters taken over the weekend prior to the debate saw a swing to Labor, increasing their 2PP lead to 58 percent, a rise of two percent. Labor's primary vote was up three to 51 percent, with the Liberals down two to 34 percent. Rudd extended his lead by two percent to 50 percent, with Howard down by two percent to 37 percent.

Leaders' debate

See The Great Debate 2007 with the Worm in full.

A debate between the Leader of the Opposition and the Prime Minister, under the moderation of the National Press Club, was shown live on ABC TV, the Nine Network, and Sky News Australia at 7.30pm on 21 October. 2.4 million Australians watched the event, with Nine averaging 1.42 million, the ABC averaging 907,000, and Sky News averaging 62,000. Nine's program was only the third most watched show of the night after National Bingo Night on Seven (1.56 million) and a repeat episode of Kath and Kim, also on Seven (1.48 million.) The last election debate in 2004 pulled in 1.77 million on Nine and the ABC, while in 2001, average audiences on Nine, Seven and the ABC totalled 2.44 million.

David Speers, Sky News's political editor, moderated the debate which was held in the Great Hall of Parliament House. The debate audience was 400, with the Coalition and Labor each selecting 200. Nine had a separate group of 80 purportedly 'swinging' voters (chosen by McNair Research) in its studio to control 'the Worm'. Steps were taken to ensure equal numbers so as not to taint the Worm. At one point, Peter Costello was reprimanded for interjecting.

The Nine Network, which broadcast the debate as an extended edition of 60 Minutes, attracted controversy for using the Worm in its broadcast despite prior objections from the Liberal Party and action from the National Press Club to cease its video feed. As a result, the Nine Network's feed was cut part of the way into the broadcast, which it replaced with Sky News's coverage. The Nine television network's live audience, via the Worm's average, scored the debate 65 to 29 in Rudd's favour, with 6% remaining undecided. Both sides, however, claimed victory.

Kevin Rudd used part of the debate to argue that the Liberal Party was being influenced by the H. R. Nicholls Society to make further reforms to industrial relations, citing Nick Minchin's attendance to last year's H. R. Nicholls Society conference, where he told the audience that the coalition "knew its reform to WorkChoices were not popular but the process of change must continue", and that "there is still a long way to go... awards, the IR commission, all the rest of it..." Countering the Liberal Party message that 70 percent of Labor's front bench is made up of former union officials, Rudd stated that 70 percent of Liberal Party ministers were either lawyers or former Liberal Party staffers.

Week 2

Inflation figures were released on Tuesday, showing stronger than expected underlying inflation of 3%, a key indicator for the Reserve Bank. In arguing that there was no case for an increase in interest rates, Treasurer Peter Costello described underlying inflation as one of several "technical measures", and that the overall annual headline CPI increase of 1.9% showed that the economy was running smoothly. However, some economists criticised this outlook for glossing over the underlying inflation figures.

Controversy arose over the Coalition's climate change policy, with The Financial Review citing "government sources" who claimed Turnbull told Cabinet six weeks ago it should sign the Kyoto Protocol. Neither Howard nor Turnbull denied the story. The story said that "internal critics" are claiming Turnbull is "selfishly positioning himself for a Coalition defeat" and a "possible post-poll leadership battle with Treasurer Peter Costello". The story led to claims of major splits in Cabinet.

Labor also suffered from mixed messages. Kevin Rudd was compelled to clarify Labor policy on climate change after an interview in which Peter Garrett suggested Labor would sign up to the post-Kyoto agreement at 2012 even if carbon-emitting developing countries did not. Rudd's comments, which he described as having "always been [Labor's] position", saw Labor's policy move closer to Liberal policy, insofar as Labor would ratify the agreement only after persuading all major carbon emitters, developing and developed, to ratify. Rudd also committed Labor to a target of a 20 percent reduction in emissions by 2020, a 5 percent increase on the Liberal target, assisted by the use of renewable energy, but without the use of clean coal, arguing that it would ultimately be a benefit, not a detriment to the economy.

Week 3

Debate on climate change policy continued, with John Howard stating the Coalition would not match the Labor's promise of 20% renewable energy target. Howard claimed Labor's policy "imposes too many additional costs to industry". Peter Garrett replied that lack of government action has cost jobs. It was also reported that a recommendation by Howard's Environment Minister in 2005 for higher renewable energy targets, on the basis that 15% was insufficient, was rejected at the time. Howard declined to confirm or deny this.

The Coalition announced a promise to open 50 new emergency medical centres around Australia if re-elected. Adding to the campaign trend of both major parties criticising their opponent for plagiarism and "me-tooism", Labor responded that the government had copied its policy.

Peter Garrett drew criticism from the Coalition when radio announcer Steve Price, revealed Garrett said, in conversation with a third party, "once we get in we'll just change it all" in reference to copying Coalition policies. Garrett acknowledged making the comment during a "short, jocular and casual" conversation. The third party to the conversation, Richard Wilkins, supported Garrett's view, saying that it was a "light-hearted throwaway line".

Tim Costello, director of World Vision Australia and Peter Costello's brother, criticised Australia's overseas aid ranking at 19th of 22 OECD countries and government unwillingness to match Labor's commitment of overseas aid of 0.5 percent of national GDP. Howard said his party planned to lift the rate to 3.5%, despite the Coalition's policy of 0.35%.

Commentators pronounced Peter Costello and Wayne Swan's debate on October 30 as ending in a draw. Costello focused mainly on the government's past record, advocating the need for Australia to build into the future, while Swan said Labor were interested in "investing in people". Howard said he believed Costello "creamed" his opponent, while Kevin Rudd said Swan did a "fantastic job".

Liberal Tony Abbott and Labor's Nicola Roxon publically debated health at the National Press Club on ABC television. Abbott's character and ministerial capacity were questioned by Roxon for insulting dying asbestos campaigner Bernie Banton and arriving 35 minutes late to debate. At the end of the debate, Abbott's swearing at Ms Roxon drew attention when she claimed "he could have arrived on time if he had really wanted to", a comment which Abbott described as "bullshit". Former Liberal campaign strategist Sue Cato stated "you just don't run late for things like that". Abbott did apologise to Mr Banton but refused to apologise to Ms Roxon.

Week 4

In an election campaign first, the Reserve Bank of Australia adjusted the interest rate upwards by another 0.25 percent, the sixth rise since the last election, to a 10-year high of 6.75 percent. The Coalition used the figures to argue that that only the current government had the proper experienced team to manage the economy in future, less prosperous years. Costello argued that the inflationary reasons for the rate rise were "outside the control of a Government". In response, Labor accused the Coalition of having "hauled up the white flag in the fight against inflation", saying that they had backflipped from their past statements that they could keep interest rates low. Howard stated that he was sorry for the negative consequences for and burden on Australian borrowers, but subsequently denied that this constituted an apology for the rate rise itself.

Two debates were held during the week at the National Press Club in Canberra. On November 7 Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey and Labor's Julia Gillard debated industrial relations including WorkChoices. After an interest rate rise of .25% earlier in the morning Hockey argued that Labor's policy to scrap Workchoices was the Australia's biggest threat to inflation. On November 8 Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull and opposition spokesman Peter Garrett debated issues relating to the environment. Garrett attacked the government's record on climate change to which Turnbull retaliated that Garrett's current claims betray his previous career as a political activist.

On November 10, the Australian Democrats held their campaign launch in Melbourne.

Week 5

With no overall change in the 2PP polling (Galaxy 54 ALP, ACNielsen/Newspoll 55 ALP, Roy Morgan 62 ALP), both major party election campaign official launches took place in Brisbane, Queensland, with the Liberal Party on Monday November 12 and the Labor Party on Wednesday November 14.

The coalition pledged a rebate for education costs, including private school fees, of all Australian children, totalling $9.4 billion. Primary school students will be eligible for $400 whilst secondary school students will be eligible for $800. Also offered were tax breaks worth $1.6 billion over four years in attempts to encourage people to save for first homes, $652 million for child care, and $158 million to support carers.

The Labor Party committed to a quarter of the $9.4 billion spending in an attempt to keep inflation down, accusing the Howard government of being "irresponsible". Rudd committed Labor to an additional 65,000 apprenticeships, all schools to be migrated to new high speed broadband, and all year 9-12 students to have access to their own computer, in addition to previous education reimbursement funding announcements. Also announced were a doubling of the number of undergraduate and postgraduate scholarships available at a tertiary level, as well as re-iterating the party's view on climate change and WorkChoices.

Week 6 - last

Election day will take place on Saturday 24 November.

Electoral prospects: House of Representatives

See also: Candidates of the Australian federal election, 2007

Though the government currently holds 87 seats in the 150-seat Australian House of Representatives, 23 of its MPs will be defending two-party-preferred (2PP) margins of 6% or less in 2007. Labor requires a gain of 16 seats to form a majority government in the lower house, which corresponds to a uniform swing of 4.8%.

High-profile candidates

• Maxine McKew, former ABC journalist, will contest Bennelong for Labor against Prime Minister John Howard.

• Bill Shorten, former union leader and prominent advocate during the Beaconsfield mine collapse incident, will contest the safe Labor seat of Maribyrnong for Labor.

• Bob Debus, former New South Wales Attorney-General, will contest the marginal seat of Macquarie for Labor.

• Greg Combet, former ACTU Secretary, will contest the safe Labor seat of Charlton for Labor after winning preselection ahead of incumbent Kelly Hoare.

• Richard Marles, former ACTU Assistant Secretary, will contest Corio for Labor after winning preselection ahead of incumbent Gavan O'Connor (who will run as an independent candidate instead).

• Nicole Cornes, a Sunday Mail journalist and wife of media personality and ex-footballer Graham Cornes, will contest Boothby for Labor against incumbent Liberal MP Andrew Southcott.

• Mia Handshin, a Young South Australian of the Year, journalist for The Advertiser and a small business operator, will contest Sturt for Labor against Liberal MP Minister Christopher Pyne.

• Mike Kelly, former Australian soldier and lawyer, will contest the bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro for Labor against Liberal MP Gary Nairn.

• Mike Bailey, former ABC weather reporter, will contest North Sydney for Labor against Liberal MP Workplace Minister Joe Hockey.

• Bruce Haigh, former diplomat, will contest Parkes as an independent. Haigh encountered controversy when he used his diplomatic immunity to help black activists flee repression in South Africa.

• Dr Patricia Petersen, former journalist, academic and media personality, will contest the seat of Warringah as an independant against Liberal MP Health Minister Tony Abbott.

• Stephen Mayne, shareholder activist and crikey.com.au founder, will contest Higgins as an independant.

Redistribution

An electoral redistribution completed in September 2006 by the Australian Electoral Commission will increase the size of the Queensland delegation by one, at the expense of New South Wales. The western New South Wales seat of Gwydir will be abolished and a new seat of Flynn, based around Gladstone, created in its place. Both the old seat and the new are safe for the National Party.

The other major change sees boundaries shift for Liberal-held Macquarie and Labor-held Parramatta: both are now notionally held by the opposing party. A number of other seats were also substantially changed, including Parkes, Farrer, Calare, Greenway and Hughes.

Marginal seats

Labor and the Coalition each hold 23 marginal seats: seats with 2PP margins of 6% or less. The marginal seats of Makin (South Australia) and Cowan (Western Australia), held on 2PP margins of less than 1% by the Liberals and Labor respectively, will be especially closely-watched, with sitting MPs Trish Draper and Graham Edwards retiring at the election. In the south-eastern New South Wales seat of Eden-Monaro, Liberal Gary Nairn will be defending the so-called bellwether electorate for the government with a 2PP margin of 3.3%. The Liberal electorate of Lindsay, with a 2PP margin of 2.9% will be another seat which will be hotly contested due to popular member Jackie Kelly's announcement that she will not be recontesting the seat.

Currently polling indicates that the two Tasmanian marginal seats of Bass and Braddon, both in the state's north, are likely to return to the ALP at this election. Both seats were lost by the ALP to the government at the last election, with commentators associating this with Mark Latham's forestry policy and its lack of popularity in these seats.

In the table below, based on the Mackerras electoral pendulum, marginal seats are shown in the order they would fall, assuming a uniform swing. A uniform swing to Labor would deliver the party seats on the left-hand side. A uniform swing to the Coalition would deliver seats to the Liberals and Nationals on the right-hand side.

Notional (post-redistribution) marginal seats
Seat	MP	Party	Margin	Seat	MP	Party	Margin
La Trobe, Vic	Jason Wood	Liberal	5.8%	Corio, Vic	Gavan O'Connor	Labor	5.6%
Blair, Qld	Cameron Thompson	Liberal	5.7%	Lilley, Qld	Wayne Swan	Labor	5.4%
Page, NSW	Ian Causley	National	5.5%	Brand, WA	Kim Beazley	Labor	4.7%
Boothby, SA	Andrew Southcott	Liberal	5.4%	Jagajaga, Vic	Jenny Macklin	Labor	4.4%
Corangamite, Vic	Stewart McArthur	Liberal	5.3%	Brisbane, Qld	Arch Bevis	Labor	4.0%
McMillan, Vic	Russell Broadbent	Liberal	5.0%	Capricornia, Qld	Kirsten Livermore	Labor	3.8%
Deakin, Vic	Philip Barresi	Liberal	5.0%	Melbourne Ports, Vic	Michael Danby	Labor	3.7%
Dobell, NSW	Ken Ticehurst	Liberal	4.8%	Lyons, Tas	Dick Adams	Labor	3.7%
Bennelong, NSW	John Howard	Liberal	4.0%	Bruce, Vic	Alan Griffin	Labor	3.5%
Eden-Monaro, NSW	Gary Nairn	Liberal	3.3%	Banks, NSW	Daryl Melham	Labor	3.3%
Lindsay, NSW	Jackie Kelly	Liberal	2.9%	Rankin, Qld	Craig Emerson	Labor	3.0%
Moreton, Qld	Gary Hardgrave	Liberal	2.8%	Lowe, NSW	John Murphy	Labor	3.1%
Solomon, NT	Dave Tollner	CLP	2.8%	Chisholm, Vic	Anna Burke	Labor	2.7%
Bass, Tas	Michael Ferguson	Liberal	2.6%	Ballarat, Vic	Catherine King	Labor	2.2%
Wentworth, NSW	Malcolm Turnbull	Liberal	2.6%	Holt, Vic	Anthony Byrne	Labor	1.5%
Stirling, WA	Michael Keenan	Liberal	2.0%	Isaacs, Vic	Ann Corcoran	Labor	1.5%
Hasluck, WA	Stuart Henry	Liberal	1.8%	Richmond, NSW	Justine Elliot	Labor	1.5%
Parramatta, NSW	Julie Owens	Labor	-1.1%	Adelaide, SA	Kate Ellis	Labor	1.3%
Braddon, Tas	Mark Baker	Liberal	1.1%	Bendigo, Vic	Steve Gibbons	Labor	1.0%
Makin, SA	Trish Draper	Liberal	0.9%	Cowan, WA	Graham Edwards	Labor	0.8%
Wakefield, SA	David Fawcett	Liberal	0.7%	Macquarie, NSW	Kerry Bartlett	Liberal	-0.5%
Bonner, Qld	Ross Vasta	Liberal	0.6%	Swan, WA	Kim Wilkie	Labor	0.1%
Kingston, SA	Kym Richardson	Liberal	0.1%	Hindmarsh, SA	Steve Georganas	Labor	0.1%
MPs shown in italics are not contesting the 2007 election. See Mackerras federal election pendulum, 2006 for a full list of seats.

Electoral prospects: Senate

The coalition go in to the election with 39 of 76 seats, a one seat majority. Labor have 28 seats, Greens four, Democrats four, and Family First one. A total of 36 senators are not up for re-election: 19 from the Coalition, 14 from Labor, two Greens and one Family First. The Coalition needs to win 20 of the 40 contested Senate seats to maintain its Senate majority, while Labor would need to win 25 seats to have a Senate majority in its own right. A Labor majority would require a preferred vote of over 57 percent in five of the six states; this would be a record for Labor, surpassing the 55.09 percent it recorded in the 1943 election. On recent polling, it appears likely that the balance of power will revert to the minor parties.

The minor parties and independents considered to have the best chance of winning Senate seats are the Australian Greens, Family First, the Pauline Hanson group and independent Nick Xenophon in South Australia. There is also an outside chance of the NSW CDP or LDP candidates winning a seat through preference harvesting . The Australian Democrats, who had the greatest number of senators among the minor parties, from 1978 to 2005, have been widely predicted to lose all their seats. All four Democrat seats are up for re-election, with two incumbents, Andrew Murray and Natasha Stott Despoja, deciding to retire upon the expiry of their term. The Democrats recontesting are leader Lyn Allison in Victoria and Andrew Bartlett in Queensland. The Australian Greens, Family First and the major parties are the main contenders to replace the Democrats should they lose their remaining seats.

Minor parties will contest for the sixth and final Senate spot in each state, with each group's success dependent on securing favourable preference flows from the eliminated parties and assorted micro-parties. Various parties must achieve a quota of approximately 14.7% to get elected and rely on 'preferences' from other parties to do so until all vacancies have been filled. 'Preference deals' in the senate are thus often controversial. While the Coalition concluded a preference deal with Family First, Labor chose instead to make a preference arrangement with the Greens. One Nation preferences will favour the Liberals over Labor in all states except Victoria, whilst Pauline Hanson's party has preferenced the crucial 3rd Labor seat before the 3rd Liberal/National seat in both Queensland and New South Wales.

While senators elected by the states do not actually take their seats until July 2008, the senators representing the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory take their seats almost immediately after the election results are confirmed. Liberal senator Gary Humphries representing the ACT, faces a significant challenge from Greens candidate, Kerrie Tucker and number 2 Labor candidate, Peter Conway. Should he lose his seat, this would almost certainly remove the coalition majority in the Senate immediately after the election. Latest polling shows this is quite possible, with Labor on 48, Coalition 25, and Greens 20.

Coalition senators Paul Calvert, Rod Kemp, Sandy Macdonald and Kay Patterson; and Labor senator Robert Ray will not contest the 2007 election.

High-profile candidates

(Alphabetically by surname.)

• Pauline Hanson, former One Nation Party MP, announced recently that she will be standing for the Senate in Queensland. Recent polling indicates her primary vote to be around 7.5 percent, but it is expected that she will stuggle to get the preferences required to gain a seat.

• Dr Karl Kruszelnicki, author and broadcaster, is running for the Senate in New South Wales for the Climate Change Coalition, occupying second place on the party's ticket in that state behind Patrice Newell.

• Andrew Wilkie, former ONA intelligence officer to the Howard government, has been pre-selected as second on the ticket for the Tasmanian Greens behind Senator Bob Brown. He resigned from the Office of National Assessments (ONA) over his concerns about government use of intelligence information in building a case for the 2003 invasion of Iraq. In the 2004 election he polled 16% for the Greens in Prime Minister John Howard's electorate of Bennelong.

• Nick Xenophon, a former No Pokies MP in the state Parliament of South Australia, resigned to run for a federal Senate seat representing South Australia. He attracted a fifth of the statewide upper house vote (20.5 percent) at the 2006 state election. It is widely predicted that he will win a Senate seat and is a contender for the Senate balance of power. His platform will consist of anti-gambling, pro-consumer protection, attention to the water crisis, ratifying Kyoto, opposition against what he calls a decrease in state rights, and opposition to WorkChoices.

Television coverage

The 2007 Federal Election will be covered extensively, commercial-free, by three major Australian free-to-air networks: ABC Television, the Nine Network and the Seven Network. Network Ten and SBS will include brief updates and news bulletins through the night, but not to the other networks extent.

• Nine's coverage begins at 6.30 p.m. and follows through until 8.30 p.m. It will be hosted by journalist Ray Martin and Nine's political editor Laurie Oakes. Special guests include Labor politicians Robert Ray and Treasurer Wayne Swan, Liberals Michael Kroger and Communications minister Helen Coonan and John Howard's biographer Peter Van Onselen with light hearted views from the tally room coming from Chaser stuntman Charles Firth. Special reporters include Peter Overton, Tracy Grimshaw and Kellie Connolly.

• Seven will be going with a new election coverage team for 2007, led by breakfast television hosts David Koch and Melissa Doyle. There coverage also runs from 6.30 p.m. but has no planned finish time. Special guests include current and former Liberal politicians Joe Hockey (Work Choices minister), and Jackie Kelly. Joining them will be Labor's Tanya Plibersek and the National Party's Barnaby Joyce. Special Reporters include Anna Coren, Mark Riley and Chris Bath.

• The ABC's coverage will begin at 6 p.m., led by Kerry O'Brien, Tony Jones and Antony Green. Special guests include Senator Nick Minchin (finance minister), representing the Coalition, and Julia Gillard (deputy ALP leader) from the ALP. Special Reporters include editors Jim Middleton and Michael Brissenden, and other journalists with the leaders in Sydney and Brisbane. The ABC will provide live crosses to all the key electorates around Australia.

See also

• Mackerras federal election pendulum, 2006
• Candidates of the Australian general election, 2007
• List of political parties in Australia
• List of Australian federal electorates

External links

Official

• Parliament of Australia - Election Timetable
• Australian Electoral Commission

Media

• ABC Online: 2007 Federal Election
• The Crikey Guide to the 2007 Election

Unofficial Sites

• AustralianPolitics.com: 2007 Federal Election
• The Poll Bludger - Federal Election 2007
• OzPolitics - Australian Federal Election 2007
• Adam Carr's Guide to the 2007 Federal Election
• Possums Pollytics
• Simon Jackman's 2007 Election Analysis
• TrendLines Research's International Seat Projection Charts daily updates