Nouriel Roubini

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Nouriel Roubini (2009)

Nouriel Roubini (born March 29, 1958 in Istanbul , Turkey ) is an American economist . He is a professor at the New York University belonging Stern School of Business and founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC, a provider of capital market and economic information. Before becoming a professor, he was an advisor to the United States Department of the Treasury .

Live and act

Nouriel Roubini was born in Istanbul as the son of Iranian Jews. His family moved to Tehran when he was two years old and then to Tel Aviv , later to Italy and finally to the United States. He grew up mainly in Italy and went to school there. Not least because of this, Roubini speaks Persian , Hebrew and Italian in addition to English and describes himself as a “global nomad ”. He was always in the role of the outsider, which may have contributed to the fact that he still does not care about majority opinions.

Roubini studied economics from 1977 to 1982 at the Luigi Bocconi University of Economics, after having studied at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem for a year . After graduating in 1983, he moved to Harvard University , where he received his doctorate in 1988. He impressed his doctoral supervisor Jeffrey Sachs with his dual talent: Nouriel Roubini felt at home in mathematics as well as in the analysis of political and economic institutions.

Roubini taught at Yale University from 1988 to 1995. It was here that he met Robert Shiller , the economist who recognized the dot-com bubble in Internet and technology stocks very early on . He then moved to the Stern School of Business in New York City, where he is still a professor today.

In 1997, when the Asian crisis was looming, he and his students created a website that brought together all available texts and studies on the subject and was named the best business website of the year by The Economist . As a result, Roubini was appointed to his advisory board by then Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers .

After his political interlude was over with the end of Bill Clinton's reign , he continued to work on his web project on macroeconomics and financial policy , which in 2004 resulted in the consulting and analysis company Roubini Global Economics (RGE) in collaboration with businesswoman Camilla LeBlanc 50 employees and 1000 paying customers, including financial institutions, authorities and over 50 central banks from all over the world. The n-tv presenter Sandra Navidi was particularly active in management . Some of the content is free. For exclusive analyzes, the company charges a total of US $ 20,000 with a minimum purchase of ten subscriptions, while reduced rates apply to universities and other non-profit organizations.

Despite much hostility and ridicule from the professional world ("Dr. Doom" = "Dr. Downfall"), Nouriel Roubini has always warned since 2004 of a bursting of the real estate bubble and a resulting "hard landing" of the US economy. In 2006, he predicted a US recession with global repercussions. In 2008, he warned that the current financial crisis had only just begun with the Bear Stearns bankruptcy and that the global economy was about to collapse. He recommended nationalization of the affected banks ; it is better “to buy the banks straight away and then to turn them into money” than to subsidize them by buying up bad loans . In early 2008, he put the total losses at at least one trillion dollars, an estimate that looked adventurous until the IMF adopted it shortly afterwards.

In January 2009, he corrected that figure to as much as $ 3.6 trillion, three months ahead of a similar estimate by the IMF.

In 2008 he founded and led the analysis house Roubini Global Economics with 60 analysts until 2018 .

On April 27, 2010, Roubini predicted that an austerity program amounting to 10 percent of government spending for Greece would not be feasible with the Greek population in the long term. But if it were to be realized, it would have a disastrous impact on the Greek economy. He went on to say that Greece had a higher debt-to- GDP ratio than Argentina in 2001 . Due to its high unemployment and the real estate bubble, Spain has very poorly positioned banks and thus a worse situation than Greece. Even if the IMF-EU aid package for Greece together with the Greek austerity program is a good step, he expects many “unexpected and chaotic” events up to the national bankruptcy of the two countries during and towards the end of the three-year term of the package . Banks would have to pay significantly higher risk premiums in Euribor trading. At the end of January 2013 he admitted that he had made a mistake in predicting that Greece would leave the euro zone in 2012 and had been surprised by the ECB's government bond purchase program .

Roubini never married and lives alone in Tribeca , Manhattan . He was granted US citizenship in the mid-1990s .

In February 2020, he predicted that the stock markets would collapse by 30 to 40 percent due to the coronavirus epidemic and that Donald Trump would lose the presidential election that same year.

reception

Anirvan Banerji, formerly an economist at Columbia University in New York , held against Roubini "using analogies to make predictions "; this approach is "subjective". Princeton economist Markus Brunnermeier, however, defends Roubini. While many academics have withdrawn into model worlds, Roubini grapples with realistic problems and was right with his forecasts.

Roubini's book The End of the World Economy and Its Future (English original title Crisis Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of Finance ) was published in many countries on May 11, 2010 and has been the subject of lively public debate ever since.

Memberships and honors

Others

Roubini plays in the film Wall Street: Money Doesn't Sleep by Oliver Stone himself. In a scene that takes place immediately after the Lehman bankruptcy, a television station calls him “Dr. Doom ”interviews and expresses concerns about the future of the global financial system.

Publications

  • with Alberto Alesina & Gerald D. Cohen: Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy. MIT Press, 1997, ISBN 0-262-51094-4 .
  • with Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti : Paper Tigers? A Model of the Asian Crisis. In: European Economic Review. July 1999
  • with Brad Setser: Bailouts or Bail-ins? Responding to Financial Crises in Emerging Economies. Peterson Institute, 2004, ISBN 978-0-88132-371-9
  • with Marc Uzan (Ed.): New International Financial Architecture. Volume 1. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2006, ISBN 1-84376-808-9
  • with Stephen Mihm: Crisis Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of Finance. The Penguin Press, 2010, ISBN 1-59420-250-8
    • German edition: Crisis Economics. The end of the world economy and its future. Campus-Verlag, Frankfurt / New York 2010, ISBN 978-3-593-39102-1

Web links

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ Steven Mihm: Dr. Doom . In: The New York Times . August 15, 2008
  2. ↑ a b c d e The Time : Economic Crisis: Permit, Doctor Doom . December 11, 2008
  3. ^ Asian and Global Crisis Homepage ( Memento from August 15, 2000 in the Internet Archive ) in the Internet Archive
  4. ↑ a b c Harald Schumann : The severe weather warning . In: Der Tagesspiegel . December 9, 2006
  5. ↑ a b c Süddeutsche Zeitung : Economist Nouriel Roubini - The Prophet of Downfall ( Memento from June 18, 2009 in the Internet Archive ). January 29, 2009 (part 2)
  6. ↑ Management Roubini Global Economics; Senior Management - Dr. Nouriel Roubini, Chairman, Co-Founder ( Memento from April 13, 2012 in the web archive archive.today )
  7. ↑ Der Tagesspiegel : "This is the beginning of the end of the US empire" . September 28, 2008 (interview with Harald Schumann )
  8. ^ Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung : Interview: "The stockbrokers are too optimistic" . October 9, 2006
  9. ^ CNBC : Realty Check: Health of Housing . August 25, 2008 (video)
  10. ↑ Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung : Star economist Nouriel Roubini: "America must nationalize its banks" . March 17, 2008
  11. ↑ US financial crisis - "The government should buy the mortgages". Süddeutsche Zeitung , May 17, 2010, accessed on April 8, 2019 .
  12. ↑ Die Presse : Financial Crisis: “Dr. Doom ”proclaims bankruptcy . January 20, 2009
  13. ↑ Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung : Star economist Nouriel Roubini: "credit losses of more than $ 3 trillion" . January 28, 2009
  14. ↑ Die Presse : IMF warns against scrap papers of four bio. Dollar . April 21, 2009
  15. ↑ https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2020-05/anlagetipps-nouriel-roubini-corona-krise-boerse-gold-anhaben
  16. ^ Felix Salmon: Roubini on Greece. In: Reuters Analysis & Opinion. April 27, 2010, accessed May 9, 2010 .
  17. ↑ Doom prophet Roubini: "The ECB surprised everyone" , Spiegel Online, January 26, 2013 (Interview by David Böcking with Roubini)
  18. ^ The Times : Fame and Fortune: Nouriel Roubini . June 21, 2009
  19. ↑ Tim Bartz, DER SPIEGEL: Star economist Roubini on the impending corona crash: "This crisis will become a disaster" - DER SPIEGEL - Economy. Retrieved February 27, 2020 .
  20. ↑ The banks must smash themselves , handelsblatt.com of May 10, 2010;
  21. ↑ "We have to starve the beast" , spiegel.de of May 10, 2010
personal data
SURNAME Roubini, Nouriel
BRIEF DESCRIPTION American economist
DATE OF BIRTH March 29, 1958
PLACE OF BIRTH Istanbul