Elections for the Dáil Éireann 2020

← 2016Elections for the Dáil Éireann 2020

First preferences in%

 %

30th

20th

10

0

24.5

22.2

20.9

7.1

4.4

2.9

2.6

1.9

12.2

1.3

SF

FF

FG

GP

ILP

SD

S-PBP

Aontú ^h

Independent

Otherwise.

Gains and losses

compared to 2016

 % p

 12

 10

   8th

   6th

   4th

   2

   0

  -2

  -4

  -6

  -8th

+10.7

-2.1

-4.6

+4.4

-2.2

-0.1

-1.3

+1.9

+0.5

-6.6

SF

FF

FG

GP

ILP

SD

S-PBP

Aontú ^h

Independent

Otherwise.

Remarks:

^h Splitting off of Sinn Féin

Distribution of seats

          

A total of 160 seats

• I4C : 1
• S-PBP : 5th
• SF : 37
• SD : 6
• GP : 12
• ILP : 6
• Independent: 19
• FF : 38
• FG : 35
• Aontú : 1

The 33rd elections for the Dáil Éireann 2020 took place on February 8, 2020.

159 of the 160 members of the lower house of the Parliament of the Republic of Ireland were elected.

The regular election would have taken place in 2021. At the initiative of Prime Minister Leo Varadkar , however, Parliament was prematurely dissolved by President Michael D. Higgins on January 14, 2020 .

Electoral process

The constitution prescribes elections by means of transferable individual votes , whereby at least three members must be elected in each constituency. Since 1947 there have only been constituencies with three to five members to be elected.

There were again changes compared to the previous elections:

• The number of constituencies was reduced again, from 40 to 39.
  • The constituencies of Laois and Offaly (three seats each) were merged to form the Laois-Offaly constituency (five seats).
• The number of mandates was increased from 158 to 160.
  • In the constituencies of Dublin Central and Kildare South, four instead of the previous three seats will be awarded.
  • In the constituency of Cavan-Monaghan, five instead of the previous four seats will be awarded.

159 of these 160 seats stood for election, only Seán Ó Fearghaíl ( Fianna Fáil ) retained his seat as he is chairman of the Irish House of Commons ( Ceann Comhairle ).

Starting position

Previous election 2016

→ Main article : Elections for the Dáil Éireann 2016

Elections for the Dáil Éireann 2016

First preferences in%

 %

30th

20th

10

0

25.52

24.35

13.85

6.61

4.20

3.95

3.00

2.72

2.18

13.70

FG

FF

SF

ILP

IA

AAA-PBP

SD

GP

RI

Otherwise.

In the 2016 election, Fine Gael (FG) lost a considerable amount of approval by ten percentage points, but remained the strongest party. Just behind was Fianna Fáil (FF), who in turn were able to gain. While Sinn Féin (SF) improved slightly, the Irish Labor Party (ILP or Lab) lost two thirds of its votes and was only the fourth strongest party with less than 7 percent.

The Green Party (GP) managed to move back in after leaving in 2011. Three parties or alliances made it into parliament: The Independent Alliance (IA), Solidarity-People Before Profit (S-PBP) and the Social Democrats (SD).

Educated governments

Kenny government

On May 6, 2016, Enda Kenny (Fine Gael) was re-elected as Taoiseach (Prime Minister ) with 59 votes to 49, with the support of several independent MPs with abstention from the second largest party Fianna Fáil. Fianna Fáil also concluded a tolerance agreement with the government in order to enable concessions, particularly in the event of a controversial reform of the water supply.

Varadkar government

→ Main article : Varadkar government

Enda Kenny was replaced as head of government in June 2017 by his party colleague Leo Varadkar .

On January 14, 2020, the parliament was dissolved and Varadkar announced early elections, which he mainly justified with the approaching withdrawal of the United Kingdom . Observers, however, saw the move as more of a tactical intention, as the government alliance threatened to break due to a planned no-confidence vote by the opposition against Health Minister Simon Harris .

Parties and candidates

Party / alliance		Chairperson	Political orientation	European party
	Fine Gael (FG)	Leo Varadkar	Christian Democracy , Liberal Conservatism	EPP
	Fianna Fáil (FF)	Micheál Martin	Irish Republicanism , Liberal Conservatism	ALDE
	Sinn Féin (SF)	Mary Lou McDonald	Irish Republicanism, Democratic Socialism	Not a member of the GUE / NGL group
	Irish Labor Party (ILP / Lab)	Brendan Howlin	Social democracy	SPE
	Solidarity - People Before Profit (S-PBP)	-	Democratic socialism	No
	Social Democrats (SD)	Catherine Murphy Róisín Shortall	Social democracy	No
	Green Party (GP)	Eamon Ryan	Green politics , left-wing liberalism	EGP
	Independents 4 Change (I4C)	-	Democratic socialism	Not a member of the GUE / NGL group
	Aontú	Peadar Tóibín	Irish Republicanism , Conservatism	No

Survey

Before the election

The polls relate to the voters' first preference.

date	Institute	FG	FF	SF	ILP / Lab	S-PBP	SD	GP	Otherwise.
02/01/2020	Ipsos MRBI	20%	23%	25%	4%	2%	2%	8th %	16%
01/30/2020	Red C	21%	24%	24%	5%	1 %	3%	7%	13%
01/30/2020	Panelbase	19%	23%	21%	5%	5%	5%	10%	12%
01/25/2020	Ireland Thinks	22%	27%	20%	6%	1 %	3%	10%	11%
01/23/2020	Red C	23%	26%	19%	4%	2%	3%	8th %	15%
01/20/2020	Ipsos MRBI	23%	25%	21%	5%	2%	2%	8th %	13%
02/26/2016	Election 2016	25.5%	24.4%	13.9%	6.6%	4.0%	3.0%	2.7%	15.9%

course

Survey values ​​averaged over monthly survey results, from the 2016 election to the 2020 election

Results

Overall result

Strongest party according to first preference per region

Results
Political party		Chairman	Voices 1st preference			Seats
			number	proportion of	+/-	Number candidates data	Elected in 2016	Elected 2020	+/-	proportion of
	Sinn Féin	Mary Lou McDonald	535,595	24.5%	▲ 10.7%	42	23	37	▲ 14	23.1%
	Fianna Fáil	Micheál Martin	484.320	22.2%	▼ 2.2%	84	44	37 2	▼ 7	23.1%
	Fine Gael	Leo Varadkar	455.584	20.9%	▼ 4.7%	82	49 1	35	▼ 14	21.8%
	Green party	Eamon Ryan	155,700	7.1%	▲ 4.4%	39	2	12	▲ 10	7.5%
	Irish Labor Party	Brendan Howlin	95,588	4.4%	▼ 2.2%	31	7th	6th	▼ 1	3.8%
	Social Democrats	Catherine Murphy Róisín Shortall	63,404	2.9%	▼ 0.1%	20th	3	6th	▲ 3	3.8%
	Solidarity – People Before Profit 3 • People Before Profit 4 • Solidarity 5 • RISE	-	57,420 40,220 12,723 4,477	2.6% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%	▼ 1.3% ▼ 0.2% ▼ 1.3% new	37 27 9 1	6 3 3 -	5 3 1 1	▼ 1 ▬ ▼ 2 new	3.1% 1.9% 0.6% 0.6%
	Aontú	Peadar Tóibín	41,614	1.9%	New	26th	-	1	▲ 1	0.6%
	Independents 4 Change	-	8,421	0.4%	▼ 0.8%	4th	4th	1	▼ 3	0.6%
	Irish Freedom Party	Hermann Kelly	5,495	0.3%	New	11	-	0	-	-
	Renua Ireland	Vacant	5,473	0.3%	▼ 1.9%	11	0	0	-	-
	National Party	Justin Barrett	4,773	0.2%	New	10	-	0	-	-
	Irish Democratic Party	Ken Smollen	2,611	0.1%	New	1	-	0	-	-
	Workers' party	Michael Donnelly	1,195	0.1%	▼ 0.1%	4th	0	0	-	-
	UnitedPeople	Jeff Rudd	43	<0.1%	New	1	-	0	-	-
	Independent		266,529	12.2%	▲ 0.5%	129	13	19th	▲ 6	11.9%
	Ceann Comhairle	Seán Ó Fearghaíl	-	-	-	1	1 1	1 2	▬	0.6%
total			2,183,765	100%	-	533	158 6	160	▲ 2	100%
Valid votes			2,183,765	99.20%
Invalid and blank ballot papers			18,427	0.80%
Votes cast			2,202,192	100.00%
Number of eligible voters and turnout			3,502,044	62.88%

¹The Ceann Comhairle was a member of Fine Gael in the 2016 election .

²The Ceann Comhairle , Seán Ó Fearghaíl, is a member of Fianna Fáil .

³2016 as the Anti-Austerity Alliance - People Before Profit

^4th2016 as the People Before Profit Alliance

⁵2016 as the Anti-Austerity Alliance

^6th Independent Alliance won 6 seats in 2016.

Results in the provinces

Ulster-Connacht

Results for the province of Ulster - Connacht :

Results
Political party		Seats
		Elected in 2016	Elected 2020	+/-	proportion of
	Sinn Féin	3	8th	▲ 5	27.6%
	Fine Gael	8th	7th	▼ 1	24.1%
	Fianna Fáil	11	7th	▼ 4	24.1%
	Independent	6th	7th	▼ 1	24.1%
total		28	29	▲ 1	100%

Dublin

Results for Dublin :

Results
Political party		Seats
		Elected in 2016	Elected 2020	+/-	proportion of
	Sinn Féin	7th	10	▲ 3	22.2%
	Fine Gael	14th	10	▼ 4	22.2%
	Green party	2	8th	▲ 6	17.8%
	Fianna Fáil	6th	7th	▲ 1	15.6%
	Solidarity – People Before Profit	5	4th	▼ 1	8.9%
	Social Democrats	1	3	▲ 2	6.7%
	Irish Labor Party	2	2	▬	4.4%
	Independents 4 Change	-	1	▲ 1	2.2%
	Independent	5	-	▼ 5	-
total		44	45	▲ 1	100%

Leinster without Dublin

Results for the province of Leinster :

Results
Political party		Seats
		Elected in 2016	Elected 2020	+/-	proportion of
	Sinn Féin	7th	11	▲ 4	25.6%
	Fianna Fáil	14th	11	▼ 3	25.6%
	Fine Gael	16	9	▼ 7	20.9%
	Irish Labor Party	2	2	▬	4.6%
	Social Democrats	2	2	▬	4.6%
	Green party	-	2	▲ 2	4.6%
	Aontú	-	1	▲ 1	2.3%
	Independent	2	4th	▲ 2	9.3%
	Ceann Comhairle	1	1	▬	2.3%
total		43	43	▬	100%

Muenster

Results for the province of Munster :

Results
Political party		Seats
		Elected in 2016	Elected 2020	+/-	proportion of
	Fianna Fáil	13	13	▬	30.2%
	Sinn Féin	6th	8th	▲ 2	18.6%
	Fine Gael	12	8th	▼ 4	18.6%
	Irish Labor Party	3	2	▼ 1	4.7%
	Green party	-	2	▲ 2	4.7%
	Social Democrats	-	1	▲ 1	2.3%
	Solidarity – People Before Profit	-	1	▲ 1	2.3%
	Independent	9	8th	▼ 1	18.6%
total		43	43	▬	100%

Analysis of the election result

The election was largely marked by strong profits from Sinn Féin. The two traditional centrist-conservative parties Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, which had held the post of Taoiseach on each other since the formation of the Irish Free State in 1937, lost accordingly. Election analysts calculated that Sinn Féin could have won a further 11 seats in parliament if they had put up another candidate in each of the constituencies. SF party leader Mary Lou McDonald stated after the election that voters wanted a different party in government and that it was not simply a protest election. In addition to the dissatisfaction with the quasi-power monopoly of the two traditional parties, the reasons for the election result lay primarily in the social field. Dublin is one of the most expensive cities in the whole of the European Union and rents in Ireland have risen sharply in recent years, so that, according to official government statistics, there was an average of more than 10,000 homeless people in Ireland in 2019. The scarcity of resources in the Irish health system was also a recurring issue in the months leading up to the election. Sinn Féin, who for a long time had mostly only dealt with the topic of the reunification of Ireland, had turned to significantly more social issues under the new party chairman Mary Lou McDonald, who has been in office since 2018.

The Social Democrats achieved their best election result to date, winning six parliamentary seats, and attributed this to the fact that the party focused on realistic goals and did not run for candidates in every constituency as it used to. The Greens also achieved their best result so far with 12 seats.

Government formation

During the campaign, the leaders of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil ruled out the formation of a coalition government with Sinn Féin. Fine Gael's communications, climate and environment minister Richard Bruton said the results left open the possibility of another government by his party. It has been reported that some at Fianna Fáil preferred a coalition with Sinn Féin over renewing an agreement with Fine Gael. When the results were still pending, Sinn Féin boss McDonald announced that she would try to form a coalition government without Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil. However, she did not rule out a coalition with either party.

After negotiations, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael agreed on a "historic coalition" with the Greens more than four months after the parliamentary elections. The post of Taoiseach will therefore “rotate” between the two bourgeois parties . Micheál Martin (FF) will initially be premier until 2022, then Leo Varadkar (FG) would take over this position again. The left-wing election winner Sinn Féin becomes the largest opposition party.

Individual evidence

1. ↑ ^{a b c d e f g h i j k} Election 2020 National Summary. RTE.ie, accessed on February 9, 2020 (English). 
2. ↑ Election law passed in 2017 , on irishstatutebook.ie
3. ↑ Fischer Weltalmanach 2017, page 218
4. ↑ RTE: Fianna Fáil renews Confidence and Supply Agreement
5. ↑ Ireland's Prime Minister announces new election on zeit.de
6. ↑ ^{a b} Overview of the Ipsos MRBI surveys , on irishtimes.com
7. ↑ Sinn Fein draw level atop opinion poll days from Irish election , on thestar.com
8. ↑ Election 2020: Poll shows Sinn Féin heading for second place as Fine Gael falters , on thetimes.co.uk
9. ↑ Bad news for Leo! Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein surge at midway point, latest poll , on extra.ie
10. ↑ Poll indicates increased support for Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin , on rte.ie
11. ↑ ^{a b c d e} Election 2020 Results | The Irish Times. The Irish Times, accessed February 9, 2020 . 
12. ↑ 2020 General Election. irelandelection.com, accessed February 10, 2020 . 
13. ↑ ^{a b c d e} Change in the number of seats between the 2020 and 2016 elections.
14. ^ John Drennan: The 11 seats Sinn Fein left behind in Election 2020 which could have changed everything. NPR , February 9, 2020, accessed June 27, 2020 . 
15. ↑ Colin Dwyer: 3 Big Takeaways From Sinn Fein's Stunning Surge In Ireland. Extra.ie, February 10, 2020, accessed on June 27, 2020 (English). 
16. ↑ Dominic McGrath: 'No paper candidates': How the Social Democrats' GE2020 strategy reaped electoral success. thejournal.ie, February 16, 2020, accessed on June 27, 2020 . 
17. ↑ Pat Leahy: Pat Leahy: Changing political climate helps Green shoots to thrive. The Irish Times, May 28, 2019, accessed June 27, 2020 . 
18. ↑ https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/0615/1147519-government-formation/