Elections for the Dáil Éireann 2020
The 33rd elections for the Dáil Éireann 2020 took place on February 8, 2020.
159 of the 160 members of the lower house of the Parliament of the Republic of Ireland were elected.
The regular election would have taken place in 2021. At the initiative of Prime Minister Leo Varadkar , however, Parliament was prematurely dissolved by President Michael D. Higgins on January 14, 2020 .
Electoral process
The constitution prescribes elections by means of transferable individual votes , whereby at least three members must be elected in each constituency. Since 1947 there have only been constituencies with three to five members to be elected.
There were again changes compared to the previous elections:
- The number of constituencies was reduced again, from 40 to 39.
- The number of mandates was increased from 158 to 160.
- In the constituencies of Dublin Central and Kildare South, four instead of the previous three seats will be awarded.
- In the constituency of Cavan-Monaghan, five instead of the previous four seats will be awarded.
159 of these 160 seats stood for election, only Seán Ó Fearghaíl ( Fianna Fáil ) retained his seat as he is chairman of the Irish House of Commons ( Ceann Comhairle ).
Starting position
Previous election 2016
In the 2016 election, Fine Gael (FG) lost a considerable amount of approval by ten percentage points, but remained the strongest party. Just behind was Fianna Fáil (FF), who in turn were able to gain. While Sinn Féin (SF) improved slightly, the Irish Labor Party (ILP or Lab) lost two thirds of its votes and was only the fourth strongest party with less than 7 percent.
The Green Party (GP) managed to move back in after leaving in 2011. Three parties or alliances made it into parliament: The Independent Alliance (IA), Solidarity-People Before Profit (S-PBP) and the Social Democrats (SD).
Educated governments
Kenny government
On May 6, 2016, Enda Kenny (Fine Gael) was re-elected as Taoiseach (Prime Minister ) with 59 votes to 49, with the support of several independent MPs with abstention from the second largest party Fianna Fáil. Fianna Fáil also concluded a tolerance agreement with the government in order to enable concessions, particularly in the event of a controversial reform of the water supply.
Varadkar government
Enda Kenny was replaced as head of government in June 2017 by his party colleague Leo Varadkar .
On January 14, 2020, the parliament was dissolved and Varadkar announced early elections, which he mainly justified with the approaching withdrawal of the United Kingdom . Observers, however, saw the move as more of a tactical intention, as the government alliance threatened to break due to a planned no-confidence vote by the opposition against Health Minister Simon Harris .
Parties and candidates
Party / alliance | Chairperson | Political orientation | European party | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Fine Gael (FG) |
Leo Varadkar |
Christian Democracy , Liberal Conservatism |
EPP | |
Fianna Fáil (FF) |
Micheál Martin |
Irish Republicanism , Liberal Conservatism |
ALDE | |
Sinn Féin (SF) |
Mary Lou McDonald |
Irish Republicanism, Democratic Socialism |
Not a member of the GUE / NGL group |
|
Irish Labor Party (ILP / Lab) |
Brendan Howlin |
Social democracy | SPE | |
Solidarity - People Before Profit (S-PBP) | - | Democratic socialism | No | |
Social Democrats (SD) |
Catherine Murphy Róisín Shortall |
Social democracy | No | |
Green Party (GP) |
Eamon Ryan |
Green politics , left-wing liberalism |
EGP | |
Independents 4 Change (I4C) | - | Democratic socialism | Not a member of the GUE / NGL group |
|
Aontú |
Peadar Tóibín |
Irish Republicanism , Conservatism |
No |
Survey
Before the election
The polls relate to the voters' first preference.
date | Institute | FG | FF | SF | ILP / Lab | S-PBP | SD | GP | Otherwise. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02/01/2020 | Ipsos MRBI | 20% | 23% | 25% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 8th % | 16% |
01/30/2020 | Red C | 21% | 24% | 24% | 5% | 1 % | 3% | 7% | 13% |
01/30/2020 | Panelbase | 19% | 23% | 21% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 10% | 12% |
01/25/2020 | Ireland Thinks | 22% | 27% | 20% | 6% | 1 % | 3% | 10% | 11% |
01/23/2020 | Red C | 23% | 26% | 19% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 8th % | 15% |
01/20/2020 | Ipsos MRBI | 23% | 25% | 21% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 8th % | 13% |
02/26/2016 | Election 2016 | 25.5% | 24.4% | 13.9% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 15.9% |
course
Results
Overall result
Results | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Political party |
Chairman |
Voices 1st preference |
Seats | ||||||||
number | proportion of | +/- | Number candidates data |
Elected in 2016 |
Elected 2020 |
+/- |
proportion of | ||||
Sinn Féin | Mary Lou McDonald | 535,595 | 24.5% | 10.7% | 42 | 23 | 37 | 14 | 23.1% | ||
Fianna Fáil | Micheál Martin | 484.320 | 22.2% | 2.2% | 84 | 44 | 37 2 | 7 | 23.1% | ||
Fine Gael | Leo Varadkar | 455.584 | 20.9% | 4.7% | 82 | 49 1 | 35 | 14 | 21.8% | ||
Green party | Eamon Ryan | 155,700 | 7.1% | 4.4% | 39 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 7.5% | ||
Irish Labor Party | Brendan Howlin | 95,588 | 4.4% | 2.2% | 31 | 7th | 6th | 1 | 3.8% | ||
Social Democrats |
Catherine Murphy Róisín Shortall |
63,404 | 2.9% | 0.1% | 20th | 3 | 6th | 3 | 3.8% | ||
Solidarity – People Before Profit 3 • People Before Profit 4 • Solidarity 5 • RISE |
- | 57,420 40,220 12,723 4,477 |
2.6% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% |
1.3% 0.2% 1.3% new |
37 27 9 1 |
6 3 3 - |
5 3 1 1 |
1 2 new |
3.1% 1.9% 0.6% 0.6% |
||
Aontú | Peadar Tóibín | 41,614 | 1.9% | New | 26th | - | 1 | 1 | 0.6% | ||
Independents 4 Change | - | 8,421 | 0.4% | 0.8% | 4th | 4th | 1 | 3 | 0.6% | ||
Irish Freedom Party | Hermann Kelly | 5,495 | 0.3% | New | 11 | - | 0 | - | - | ||
Renua Ireland | Vacant | 5,473 | 0.3% | 1.9% | 11 | 0 | 0 | - | - | ||
National Party | Justin Barrett | 4,773 | 0.2% | New | 10 | - | 0 | - | - | ||
Irish Democratic Party | Ken Smollen | 2,611 | 0.1% | New | 1 | - | 0 | - | - | ||
Workers' party | Michael Donnelly | 1,195 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 4th | 0 | 0 | - | - | ||
UnitedPeople | Jeff Rudd | 43 | <0.1% | New | 1 | - | 0 | - | - | ||
Independent | 266,529 | 12.2% | 0.5% | 129 | 13 | 19th | 6 | 11.9% | |||
Ceann Comhairle | Seán Ó Fearghaíl | - | - | - | 1 | 1 1 | 1 2 | 0.6% | |||
total | 2,183,765 | 100% | - | 533 | 158 6 | 160 | 2 | 100% | |||
Valid votes | 2,183,765 | 99.20% | |||||||||
Invalid and blank ballot papers | 18,427 | 0.80% | |||||||||
Votes cast | 2,202,192 | 100.00% | |||||||||
Number of eligible voters and turnout |
3,502,044 | 62.88% |
Results in the provinces
Ulster-Connacht
Results for the province of Ulster - Connacht :
Results | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Political party |
Seats | ||||||||||
Elected in 2016 |
Elected 2020 |
+/- |
proportion of | ||||||||
Sinn Féin | 3 | 8th | 5 | 27.6% | |||||||
Fine Gael | 8th | 7th | 1 | 24.1% | |||||||
Fianna Fáil | 11 | 7th | 4 | 24.1% | |||||||
Independent | 6th | 7th | 1 | 24.1% | |||||||
total | 28 | 29 | 1 | 100% |
Dublin
Results for Dublin :
Results | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Political party |
Seats | ||||||||||
Elected in 2016 |
Elected 2020 |
+/- |
proportion of | ||||||||
Sinn Féin | 7th | 10 | 3 | 22.2% | |||||||
Fine Gael | 14th | 10 | 4 | 22.2% | |||||||
Green party | 2 | 8th | 6 | 17.8% | |||||||
Fianna Fáil | 6th | 7th | 1 | 15.6% | |||||||
Solidarity – People Before Profit | 5 | 4th | 1 | 8.9% | |||||||
Social Democrats | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6.7% | |||||||
Irish Labor Party | 2 | 2 | 4.4% | ||||||||
Independents 4 Change | - | 1 | 1 | 2.2% | |||||||
Independent | 5 | - | 5 | - | |||||||
total | 44 | 45 | 1 | 100% |
Leinster without Dublin
Results for the province of Leinster :
Results | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Political party |
Seats | ||||||||||
Elected in 2016 |
Elected 2020 |
+/- |
proportion of | ||||||||
Sinn Féin | 7th | 11 | 4 | 25.6% | |||||||
Fianna Fáil | 14th | 11 | 3 | 25.6% | |||||||
Fine Gael | 16 | 9 | 7 | 20.9% | |||||||
Irish Labor Party | 2 | 2 | 4.6% | ||||||||
Social Democrats | 2 | 2 | 4.6% | ||||||||
Green party | - | 2 | 2 | 4.6% | |||||||
Aontú | - | 1 | 1 | 2.3% | |||||||
Independent | 2 | 4th | 2 | 9.3% | |||||||
Ceann Comhairle | 1 | 1 | 2.3% | ||||||||
total | 43 | 43 | 100% |
Muenster
Results for the province of Munster :
Results | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Political party |
Seats | ||||||||||
Elected in 2016 |
Elected 2020 |
+/- |
proportion of | ||||||||
Fianna Fáil | 13 | 13 | 30.2% | ||||||||
Sinn Féin | 6th | 8th | 2 | 18.6% | |||||||
Fine Gael | 12 | 8th | 4 | 18.6% | |||||||
Irish Labor Party | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4.7% | |||||||
Green party | - | 2 | 2 | 4.7% | |||||||
Social Democrats | - | 1 | 1 | 2.3% | |||||||
Solidarity – People Before Profit | - | 1 | 1 | 2.3% | |||||||
Independent | 9 | 8th | 1 | 18.6% | |||||||
total | 43 | 43 | 100% |
Analysis of the election result
The election was largely marked by strong profits from Sinn Féin. The two traditional centrist-conservative parties Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, which had held the post of Taoiseach on each other since the formation of the Irish Free State in 1937, lost accordingly. Election analysts calculated that Sinn Féin could have won a further 11 seats in parliament if they had put up another candidate in each of the constituencies. SF party leader Mary Lou McDonald stated after the election that voters wanted a different party in government and that it was not simply a protest election. In addition to the dissatisfaction with the quasi-power monopoly of the two traditional parties, the reasons for the election result lay primarily in the social field. Dublin is one of the most expensive cities in the whole of the European Union and rents in Ireland have risen sharply in recent years, so that, according to official government statistics, there was an average of more than 10,000 homeless people in Ireland in 2019. The scarcity of resources in the Irish health system was also a recurring issue in the months leading up to the election. Sinn Féin, who for a long time had mostly only dealt with the topic of the reunification of Ireland, had turned to significantly more social issues under the new party chairman Mary Lou McDonald, who has been in office since 2018.
The Social Democrats achieved their best election result to date, winning six parliamentary seats, and attributed this to the fact that the party focused on realistic goals and did not run for candidates in every constituency as it used to. The Greens also achieved their best result so far with 12 seats.
Government formation
During the campaign, the leaders of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil ruled out the formation of a coalition government with Sinn Féin. Fine Gael's communications, climate and environment minister Richard Bruton said the results left open the possibility of another government by his party. It has been reported that some at Fianna Fáil preferred a coalition with Sinn Féin over renewing an agreement with Fine Gael. When the results were still pending, Sinn Féin boss McDonald announced that she would try to form a coalition government without Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil. However, she did not rule out a coalition with either party.
After negotiations, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael agreed on a "historic coalition" with the Greens more than four months after the parliamentary elections. The post of Taoiseach will therefore “rotate” between the two bourgeois parties . Micheál Martin (FF) will initially be premier until 2022, then Leo Varadkar (FG) would take over this position again. The left-wing election winner Sinn Féin becomes the largest opposition party.
Individual evidence
- ↑ a b c d e f g h i j k Election 2020 National Summary. RTE.ie, accessed on February 9, 2020 (English).
- ↑ Election law passed in 2017 , on irishstatutebook.ie
- ↑ Fischer Weltalmanach 2017, page 218
- ↑ RTE: Fianna Fáil renews Confidence and Supply Agreement
- ↑ Ireland's Prime Minister announces new election on zeit.de
- ↑ a b Overview of the Ipsos MRBI surveys , on irishtimes.com
- ↑ Sinn Fein draw level atop opinion poll days from Irish election , on thestar.com
- ↑ Election 2020: Poll shows Sinn Féin heading for second place as Fine Gael falters , on thetimes.co.uk
- ↑ Bad news for Leo! Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein surge at midway point, latest poll , on extra.ie
- ↑ Poll indicates increased support for Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin , on rte.ie
- ↑ a b c d e Election 2020 Results | The Irish Times. The Irish Times, accessed February 9, 2020 .
- ↑ 2020 General Election. irelandelection.com, accessed February 10, 2020 .
- ↑ a b c d e Change in the number of seats between the 2020 and 2016 elections.
- ^ John Drennan: The 11 seats Sinn Fein left behind in Election 2020 which could have changed everything. NPR , February 9, 2020, accessed June 27, 2020 .
- ↑ Colin Dwyer: 3 Big Takeaways From Sinn Fein's Stunning Surge In Ireland. Extra.ie, February 10, 2020, accessed on June 27, 2020 (English).
- ↑ Dominic McGrath: 'No paper candidates': How the Social Democrats' GE2020 strategy reaped electoral success. thejournal.ie, February 16, 2020, accessed on June 27, 2020 .
- ↑ Pat Leahy: Pat Leahy: Changing political climate helps Green shoots to thrive. The Irish Times, May 28, 2019, accessed June 27, 2020 .
- ↑ https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/0615/1147519-government-formation/