Independence referendum in New Caledonia 2018

Emblem of New Caledonia

On November 4, 2018 , an independence referendum took place in New Caledonia , in which the independence of New Caledonia from France was voted on. The voters decided whether New Caledonia should become an independent state or whether the existing status as a French overseas territory should be retained. With a turnout of 80.63%, 56.4% of voters voted against independence.

Historical background

In the second half of the 19th century, New Caledonia and the surrounding islands were taken over by France as a colony. The resistance of the autochthonous Melanesian population, the Kanaks , was suppressed by the French colonial administration and immigration from mainland France and from other Asia-Oceanic regions (Indonesia, Polynesia, India, China) was encouraged, so that the Kanaks became a minority over time were on the island. In 1947 New Caledonia was granted French overseas territory status . However, this initially did not change the social disadvantage of the Kanaks compared to the descendants of the immigrants. From around the 1960s there was a violent independence movement among the Kanakian population, which carried out attacks against institutions of the French state. In 1986 the UN General Assembly reassigned New Caledonia to the list of territories to be decolonized ( territories without self-government ). In 1988, through the mediation of the French government, the so-called Matignon Agreement was concluded between those in favor of and opponents of independence in New Caledonia. The agreement provided for increased support for the betterment of the Kanakian population and the holding of an independence referendum in 1998. French voters approved the agreement in a nationwide referendum on November 6, 1988 . As the date of the independence referendum approached, negotiations between the parties to the dispute took place again and the referendum to be held was finally postponed in the Nouméa Agreement signed on May 5, 1998 . The time frame for the independence referendum was set between May 2014 and December 2018. New Caledonia voters approved the Nouméa Accords in a referendum on November 8, 1998 .

Opinion polls

The election results and opinion polls so far indicated that the opponents of independence outweigh the disadvantages. For example, commented Philippe Gomes, UDI -Politiker from New Caledonia and opponents of independence, the view that a yes-vote "absolutely excluded" in the referendum (strictement impossible) is because the demographic conditions militate against (among the 169,000 voters were 92,000 non Kanak and 77,000 Kanak voters). On the other hand, the opponents of independence have always achieved a majority of around 60% of the votes in all elections over the past 20 years.

source	Survey period	Respondents	For independence (in%)	Against independence (in%)	Still undecided (in%)
Harris Interactive	September 12-22, 2018	1038	34	66	-
Quidnovi	August 1st - 15th, 2018	731	20th	69	11
I-scope	July 30th - August 8th 2018	628	28	63	9
Quidnovi	June 4-15, 2018	739	15th	65	21st
Quidnovi	April 16-26, 2018	903	15th	58	27
I-scope	April 16-25, 2018	682	22.5	59.7	17.8
I-scope	March 23 - April 4, 2017	514	24.4	54.2	21.4

Question of the referendum

In the run-up to the referendum, there were debates on how the referendum question should be formulated. Proponents of independence spoke out in favor of the wording pleine souveraineté (“full sovereignty”) instead of indépendance (“independence”) and referred to the wording of the Nouméa Agreement. Opponents of independence demanded that the word France (“France”) be used in the question and that “independence” and not “full sovereignty” should be used. They relied on the wording of earlier independence referenda in the Comoros (1974) and in Djibouti (1977).

Finally, in a compromise, the following question was chosen, to which the voters answer with oui ("yes") or non ("no"):

«Voulez-vous que la Nouvelle-Calédonie accède à la pleine souveraineté et devienne indépendante? »

"Do you want New Caledonia to gain full sovereignty and become independent?"

- Question of the referendum of November 4, 2018

Results

On November 4, 2018, the majority of the population of New Caledonia decided against independence and in favor of the previous status as a French overseas territory. According to the official final result, only 43.6% of those who voted were in favor of independence. The turnout was 81%.

All of New Caledonia

unit	Yes votes		Vote no		Blank ballot papers		Invalid		Participation
	in %	absolutely	in %	absolutely	in %	absolutely	in %	absolutely	in %	absolutely
New Caledonia	43.60%	60,573	56.40%	78,361	0.72%	1017	0.81%	1148	80.63%	141,099

Result by provinces

province	Yes votes		Vote no		Blank ballot papers		Invalid		Participation
	in %	absolutely	in %	absolutely	in %	absolutely	in %	absolutely	in %	absolutely
Province des Iles	82.18%	10,631	17.82%	2305	0.34%	45	0.87%	114	58.89%	13,095
Province North	75.82%	25,747	24.18%	8209	0.58%	199	0.84%	290	86.01%	34,445
Province Sud	26.29%	24,195	73.71%	67,847	0.83%	773	0.80%	744	83.01%	93,559

Result by municipalities

Results in the municipalities (percent yes votes)

Voter turnout according to municipalities

Preliminary final results in the municipalities

No.	local community	Yes	No	Blank ballot papers	Invalid	Participation
						in %	absolutely
1	Thio	83.08%	16.92%	0.28%	0.83%	85.38%	1805
2	Yate	88.23%	11.77%	0.06%	0.52%	89.89%	1547
3	Île des Pins	67.32%	32.68%	0.78%	0.99%	82.47%	1411
4th	Le Mont-Dore	28.20%	71.80%	0.97%	1.35%	83.61%	14,522
5	Nouméa	19.49%	80.51%	0.90%	0.55%	80.29%	40,697
6th	Dumbéa	21.76%	78.24%	0.81%	0.89%	82.79%	13,699
7th	Païta	25.90%	74.10%	0.92%	0.79%	85.62%	9 544
8th	Boulouparis	30.26%	69.74%	0.25%	0.75%	90.74%	2400
9	La Foa	29.96%	70.04%	0.61%	0.95%	91.39%	2631
10	Sarraméa	72.90%	27.10%	0.85%	0.64%	93.28%	472
11	Farino	9.18%	90.82%	0.38%	1.15%	94.89%	520
12	Moindou	44.49%	55.51%	0.73%	0.73%	91.30%	682
13	Bourail	30.91%	69.09%	0.49%	0.95%	88.51%	3482
14th	Poya brew	2.05%	97.95%	0.00%	0.68%	92.45%	147
15th	Poya north	64.16%	35.84%	0.39%	0.72%	86.56%	1803
16	Pouembout	46.53%	53.47%	0.82%	1.07%	88.07%	1218
17th	Cone	64.32%	35.68%	0.44%	0.96%	87.68%	3638
18th	Voh	68.57%	31.43%	0.89%	1.48%	87.67%	2027
19th	Kaala-Gomen	75.42%	24.58%	0.56%	0.42%	87.52%	1430
20th	Koumac	36.47%	63.53%	1.09%	0.96%	89.77%	2388
21st	Poum	83.67%	16.33%	0.87%	0.78%	84.33%	1152
22nd	Belep Islands	94.45%	5.55%	0.00%	0.57%	76.85%	707
23	Ouégoa	69.84%	30.16%	0.27%	0.38%	84.93%	1832
24	Pouébo	94.25%	5.75%	0.05%	0.53%	80.86%	1888
25th	Hienghène	94.75%	5.25%	0.48%	0.92%	86.57%	2069
26th	Touho	82.60%	17.40%	0.31%	0.56%	85.34%	1612
27	Poindimié	79.26%	20.74%	0.67%	0.93%	87.92%	3567
28	Ponérihouen	79.64%	20.36%	0.93%	0.93%	85.68%	2238
29	Houaïlou	83.90%	16.10%	0.58%	1.02%	82.39%	2948
30th	Kouaoua	73.54%	26.46%	0.84%	0.52%	84.28%	954
31	Canala	93.42%	6.58%	0.60%	1.03%	85.57%	2974
32	Ouvéa	84.18%	15.82%	0.31%	0.92%	59.40%	2598
33	Lifou	79.92%	20.08%	0.51%	0.81%	62.29%	6526
34	Maré	84.58%	15.42%	0.10%	0.93%	53.77%	3971

Judgment on the election result and future perspectives

Even if the opponents of independence were clearly in the majority, many commentators were surprised by the relatively strong performance of those in favor of independence. The prognoses before the vote had predicted a victory of the opponents of independence of 63 to 75%. The voting revealed the regional disparities that can also be observed in other elections in New Caledonia. On the south coast, where most of the residents belong to the caldoche , ie the New Caledonians who voted in Europe, the no-votes clearly outweighed them. In contrast, the residents of the north and the Loyalty Islands , where the Kanaks make up the majority, largely voted yes. Both parties to the dispute, those in favor of and opponents of independence, welcomed the high turnout.

According to the Nouméa Agreement, a maximum of two further independence referenda are possible in the future. A referendum must then be called within 2 years if a majority of the delegates in the elected New Caledonia Congress so demand. Following a corresponding resolution by the Congrès de la Nouvelle-Calédonie in 2019, a second independence referendum was scheduled for October 4, 2020. If a second referendum does not result in a majority in favor of independence, a third may be held under the conditions mentioned.

Web links

• Official website of New Caledonia (French)

Individual evidence

1. ^ New Caledonia, French Leaders Look To Finalize Plans For 2018 Referendum. Pacific Islands Report, November 7, 2016, accessed April 19, 2018 . 
2. ↑ Kim Willsher: New Caledonia sets date for independence referendum. The Guardian, March 19, 2018, accessed April 19, 2018 . 
3. ↑ ^{a b c} Référendum: Retrouvez ici l'ensemble des résultats validés par le haut-commissariat. Haut-commissariat de la République en Nouvelle-Calédonie, accessed on November 4, 2018 (French). 
4. ^ Non-Self-Governing Territories. UN.org, accessed April 13, 2018 . 
5. ^ Organization du référendum. Les services de l'État en Nouvelle-Calédonie, May 25, 2016, archived from the original on July 29, 2017 ; accessed on April 21, 2018 (French). 
6. ^ Vincent Kranen: La Nouvelle-Calédonie bientôt indépendante? "Strictement impossible", assure le leader des Unionistes. March 14, 2018, accessed April 30, 2018 (French). 
7. ^ Claudine Wéry: Nouvelle-Calédonie: la question du référendum en débat. Le Monde, March 27, 2018, accessed April 27, 2018 (French). 
8. ↑ Nouvelle-Calédonie: compromis sur la question posée lors du référendum d'indépendance. Le Monde, March 28, 2018, accessed April 27, 2018 (French). 
9. ^ New Caledonia: French Pacific Territory Rejects Independence. BBC News , November 4, 2018, accessed November 5, 2018 . 
10. ↑ ^{a b} La Nouvelle-Calédonie vote à 56% pour rester française. le Monde, November 4, 2018, accessed November 4, 2018 (French). 
11. ^ New Caledonia independence referendum postponed. In: rnz.co.nz. Radio New Zealand , June 25, 2020, accessed July 11, 2020 .