Paul (octopus)

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Octopus oracle Paul in the large Oberhausen aquarium

Paul (born January 26, 2008 in the Atlantic Ocean near Weymouth , Dorset , † October 26, 2010 in the Sea Life Center , Oberhausen ) was an octopus who was known as an oracle animal for "predicting" game results at international football tournaments . He lived in the large Sea Life Center aquarium in Oberhausen, North Rhine-Westphalia .

Paul achieved special media awareness when he correctly "predicted" the outcome of all games with German participation as well as the final of the World Cup as an octopus oracle (also: octopus oracle , tentacle oracle or okrakel ) during the 2010 soccer World Cup . After the World Cup, Paul was no longer "questioned".

origin

It was a common octopus ( Octopus vulgaris ). According to his keepers, Paul first lived in 2008 in the commercial seawater aquarium Sea Life Center in Weymouth. At the age of three months, the animal came to Oberhausen in the large aquarium there owned by the same operator, who belongs to the British Merlin Entertainments Group . According to a report by the Bild newspaper , cited several times, also internationally (by ESPN ) , Paul was only caught in Italy in April 2010 at the age of four weeks and then taken to Sealife. The Paul from 2008 should be a different animal. The latter is also accepted by Ángel Guerra from the Spanish Marine Research Institute (in the CSIC network) in Vigo .

Paul's name is borrowed from the title of the poem The Octopus Paul Octopus by Boy Lornsen .

The idea for the oracle octopus was developed by the PR agency Dederichs Reinecke & Partner, which was awarded the International German PR Prize in 2011 for its press and media work on Krake Paul.

Octopus Oracle

Use as an oracle animal

Feed container for the prediction of the semi-final match between Germany and Spain

In the Sea Life Center in Oberhausen, as an attraction for visitors to the large aquarium, Paul has already been used twice as an octopus oracle or octopus oracle for predicting the outcome of a game at major football tournaments: at the 2008 European Football Championship (EM 2008) and at football -World Cup 2010 (WM 2010). Almost all of his predictions turned out to be correct, only the German encounters against Croatia and Spain at Euro 2008 were wrong.

A few days before the game, two similar lid boxes made of acrylic glass were lowered into the aquarium. The boxes contained water and feed in the form of a mussel . On the observer's side, the boxes were covered with the respective national flag of the two countries, whose national soccer teams were to compete against each other. Paul's food selection was then considered a prediction of the eventual winner.

At the 2010 World Cup, he chose the box with the correct flag eight times in a row. These include the five victories of the German national team against Australia , Ghana , England , Argentina and Uruguay as well as the two defeats against Serbia in the preliminary round and Spain in the semi-finals. On July 9, Paul guessed a game for the first time without a German participation and correctly predicted a victory for Spain in the final against the Netherlands .

Results

The octopus oracle was “questioned” for a total of 13 matches between the German national soccer team during the EM 2008 and the 2010 World Cup. The outcome of the 2010 World Cup final was also "predicted" by the octopus before the game. From a total of 14 “predictions”, the flag of Serbia was selected once, the flag of Germany eleven times and the Spanish flag twice.

EM 2008
encounter round forecast Game result
(from a German perspective) 		Correctness of
the "prediction"
GermanyGermany Germany PolandPoland Poland Group stage Germany 2-0 Yes
CroatiaCroatia Croatia Group stage Germany 1: 2 No
AustriaAustria Austria Group stage Germany 1-0 Yes
PortugalPortugal Portugal Quarter finals Germany 3: 2 Yes
TurkeyTurkey Turkey Semifinals Germany 3: 2 Yes
SpainSpain Spain final Germany 0: 1 No
World Cup 2010
encounter round forecast Game result
(from a German perspective) 		Correctness of
the "prediction"
GermanyGermany Germany AustraliaAustralia Australia Group stage Germany 4-0 Yes
SerbiaSerbia Serbia Group stage Serbia 0: 1 Yes
GhanaGhana Ghana Group stage Germany 1-0 Yes
EnglandEngland England Round of 16 Germany 4: 1 Yes
ArgentinaArgentina Argentina Quarter finals Germany 4-0 Yes
SpainSpain Spain Semifinals Spain 0: 1 Yes
UruguayUruguay Uruguay 3rd place match Germany 3: 2 Yes
NetherlandsNetherlands Netherlands SpainSpain Spain final Spain 0: 1 Yes

Scientific reception

Etienne Roquain from the University of Pierre and Marie Curie pointed out that in and of itself the probability of six correct predictions in a row - at the time at the 2010 World Cup - is quite low. Paul, however, is only one of the thousands of animals that are used for more or less joking predictions. This would mean that his series of correct predictions would not be conspicuous as a whole. In addition, Paul could be biased due to other factors, which should be investigated separately.

Volker Miske, marine zoologist at the University of Greifswald , emphasized that from a statistical point of view, an experiment must be standardized and repeated many times. Even slight traces of taste on the mussel box were enough to influence a decision. “The octopus's arms, which are equipped with suction cups, are equipped with sensitive taste cells.” The mussels emit odors in their breathing water, which have a significant impact on the octopus' choice of food. For example, even a less closed box could lead to increased odor. It is also sufficient that “one shell is slightly larger than the other”.

Although there is research “that suggests that octopuses do not see color,” they have a good sense of sight and can probably even perceive polarized light . According to Shelagh Malham from Bangor University , octopuses can differentiate between brightness values ​​and are drawn to pronounced horizontal shapes. Paul could therefore have preferred the German flag and the Spanish and Serbian flags accordingly more often. The Spanish had a more pronounced horizontal stripe and the Serbian had a higher brightness.

The Hungarian behavioral scientist Vilmos Csányi, however, did not rule out that Paul was manipulated: "The octopus is a clever animal that is able to solve problems." So he has a good memory and is able to open a box, but behind the animal is "probably a football expert who hid the favorite food [of the octopus] in the box assigned to the team whose victory he expected".

The pianist Alfred Brendel wrote a contribution to Paul under the title “The Pianist as Octopus” in the 2009-2010 yearbook of the Institute for Advanced Studies in Berlin. Accordingly, the dexterity of the octopedes, especially Paul's, is a role model for all pianists. He was reacting to a lecture by constitutional judge Wolfgang Hoffmann-Riem : Paul the octopus - or: science as a lack of knowledge .

Media coverage

Media representatives , here TV reporter Stephanie Rahn , in front of Paul's Aquarium

The predictions made during the 2010 Soccer World Cup in South Africa received greater media attention from game to game. After Paul correctly guessed the outcome of the round of 16 against England, international newspapers such as the Guardian and the tournament organizer, the world football association FIFA , reported on his homepage about Paul's quarter-final tip, Germany's victory over Argentina. This also applied. In the English-language press, Paul was referred to as a psychic octopus - an octopus with clairvoyant abilities. Le Monde spoke of practically unbeatable predictions. The Japanese AFP accused Paul of possible unreliability before the England game.

According to reports from the German tabloid press, Paul had already been discussed in Argentina. Accordingly, in the run-up to the quarter-final game Germany - Argentina , Argentine television stations had suggested recipes for making paella, among other things . As the Süddeutsche Zeitung reported, the Argentines also used various alternative oracles, including turtles, parrots and dolphins, which had predicted all victories of Argentina. Paul’s personal advisor at the Sea Life Center reported that there were always people who wanted to eat Paul. However, he is not afraid and Paul is also well protected.

Paul's tip on July 6, 2010 - one day before the semi-final match between Germany and Spain - was broadcast live by several TV channels. When he predicted the world championship on July 9, 2010 - one day before the final match between the Netherlands and Spain - more than 200 journalists were at Sea Life in Oberhausen , including television teams from Brazil, the Netherlands, Russia and Spain. In Asia, the Singapore-based parrot Mani , who picked all four quarter-finals correctly, won media coverage comparable to Paul. In the final, however, he decided for the Netherlands. In the wake of the media hype surrounding Paul, the “Sea Life” in Benalmádena, Spain, had the Kraken Pepe (“pulpo Pepe”) make game predictions with media coverage; Pepe also predicted Spain's final victory.

Mark Spörrle , on the other hand, placed Paul in a series of animals in the Zeit column “Crazy joke of the week”, which are thematized in the media as typical representatives of a “ summer slump ”.

The media attention for his “predictions” made the Kraken Paul, in public parlance beyond his own work, an allegory for forecasts without sufficient bases: For example, a fictitious Kraken forecast of economic growth is more reliable than the actual forecasts of the “five leading economic research institutes Germany ". When it comes to the development of the economy and stock markets, the following applies: “Who is right? Who wrong? At the present time everyone and nobody. [...] Only one person - if he were to deal with questions of the financial market - could predict the future of the courses accurately today: the squid Paul. "German-speaking mass media are accused of such references to Paul, they reported seriously on predicted future scenarios, which had an even lower credibility value than that of the Oberhausen oracle animal: “Seldom has so much been written and so little has been documented. Actually a case for Paul the octopus. "

External impact and marketing

After Spain's World Cup semi-final victory, Paul was a much discussed topic on the Iberian Peninsula. Spain's Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero said he was worried about him. Industry Minister Miguel Sebastián and Environment Minister Elena Espinosa suggested bringing him to Spain “so that the Germans don't eat him”. Before the World Cup final, a fake picture was circulating in the Netherlands, according to which Paul had already guessed that the Netherlands would win. However, the Dutch newspaper De Telegraaf exposed the hoax.

Animal rights activists from the Peta organization demanded Paul's release in a national park in southern France , where fishing is prohibited. The Sea Life Center refused to be released as irresponsible because of Paul's advanced age.

According to a DPA report, 30,000 euros " transfer fee " were collected in the municipality of Carballiño in the Spanish province of Ourense at the instigation of the mayor. This was to present Paul as an attraction of the local squid festival. The chairman of the local business association, the fisherman Manuel Pazo, assured that Paul should not be on the menu as Polbo á feira like many of his fellows . The Zoo Aquarium de Madrid also negotiated with Sealife Oberhausen about an early transfer of Paul in exchange for animals there and a possible transfer fee. The operators of the traditional zoo assume that Paul will increase the number of visitors considerably and want to guarantee animal-friendly care.

The Uruguayan writer and colonialism theorist Eduardo Galeano assumed that Paul was predicting a favor in the run-up to the "small finale" in an effort to maintain good relations with his home country. However, the German selection won the game.

In China in particular, media reports about Paul have generated a culinary wave. The consumption of cephalopods , squid and octopus in Asia had increased rapidly as a result. There was also increased interest in keeping the animals, which private individuals are advised against due to the complex requirements for keeping the sensitive animals. This also contradicts the requirements of the Washington Convention on the Protection of Species .

The spokeswoman for Sea-Life Tanja Munzig admitted that Paul was also used as a PR gag and expected an increase in the number of visitors. Marketing expert Allyson Stewart-Allen assumed that Paul had a significant potential influence, for example in comparative advertising between rival brands such as Coca-Cola and Pepsi . Max Clifford, who has already marketed the Beatles, estimated its value at 3.5 million euros as an advertising icon, while German experts such as Frank Behrendt, Managing Partner of the BBDO subsidiary Ketchum Pleon, viewed this figure with much more skepticism, since Paul has already passed his zenith had: “After the World Cup final, the market value of Paul the octopus was highest and certainly in the six figures. Since then he has been losing weight every day. Paul is disappearing more and more from the media. We have also learned that octopuses do not have an endlessly long life and that Paul will no longer be betting in the future. All circumstances that have a counterproductive effect on the market value . "

The Spanish community of Carballiño made Paul an honorary citizen of the city on July 13, 2010. The Mayor of Carballiño, Carlos Montes, presented a silver plaque with a dedication, a 20 centimeter bronze octopus replica and a jersey with the number eight in the Sea Life Aquarium in Oberhausen on July 22, 2010.

The Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad mentioned Paul several times in a political speech in 2010. While “true values” are upheld in Iran, Paul spread “Western propaganda and superstition” and is a “symbol of decadence and decline”. The American Huffington Post published a fictional satirical counter-speech by Paul. Although he lives in Germany, he has never met anyone who lacks humor as much as the Iranian rulers. By octopus standards, it is also less moral to murder innocents than to correctly type football games.

In the Chinese crime comedy "Kill Paul the Octopus" (Zhangyu Baoluo), a Chinese conspecific served as a double. The film should hit Chinese cinemas at the end of August 2010. “At first we wanted to use a parrot as an oracle, but later we decided to use a Rubik's Cube. Then when Paul got through the media, we rewrote the script, ”said well-known director Xiao Jiang. Filmed in South Africa, the film is about two Chinese footballers who are drawn into a tricky plot of predicting match results.

At the end of July 2010, the octopus became an advertising figure for the retail chain Rewe . In August, the English Football Association appointed Paul as ambassador for England's bid to host the 2018 World Cup .

Death and succession

Paul died of natural causes on the night of October 26, 2010. Visitors to Sea Life in Oberhausen could sign a condolence book . After a few days, Paul was cremated.

On October 26, it was announced that an octopus named Paul II was waiting to replace Paul. Paul II, who came from Montpellier , was initially kept in quarantine in Oberhausen for a week and was able to get used to the new environment. On November 3rd, 2010 Paul II moved into his new aquarium in Oberhausen.

Afterlife

After Paul's death, the municipality of Marina di Campo on Elba decided to name a street Via Polpo Paul (" Octopus Paul Street"). It runs from the end of the beach along the coast to the bay of the port of Caccamo, where Paul went into the net according to the German zoo animal catcher Verena Bartsch.

On the day of the news of his death, it was announced that Paul would receive a memorial at Sea Life Oberhausen. The monument to Paul was inaugurated on January 20, 2011. It consists of a soccer ball with an octopus figure perched on it. You can also see the urn with Paul's ashes.

Alexandre O. Philippe made a documentary about Paul's life called The Life and Times of Paul the Psychic Octopus , which was released in 2012.

On the occasion of the soccer World Cup 2014 , a Google doodle showed Paul with a halo on June 17, 2014. On July 14, 2014, when the German national team won, Paul appeared in a doodle, again with a halo.

literature

  • Lucia Volk: RIP PAUL THE OCTOPUS , in: Anthropology Today, Vol. 27, No. 4 (August 2011), pp. 24-27

Web links

Commons : Paul (Krake)  - Collection of images, videos and audio files
 Wikinews: Octopus Paul is dead  - message

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ The information comes from the Sea Life Center Oberhausen. There are doubts about this representation, see section #Origin .
  2. ↑ 'Psychic octopus' Paul retires triumphant. In: BBC.co.uk. July 12, 2010. Retrieved July 12, 2010 .
  3. ^ World Cup 2010: 10 things you didn't know about Paul the psychic octopus. In: The Daily Telegraph . July 7, 2010; Archived from the original on July 10, 2010 ; Retrieved July 7, 2010 .
  4. ↑ Eric Kelsey: World Cup 2010 Don't Mess with the Octopus Oracle, Paul Celebrates Perfect World Cup Record . In: Spiegel Online International , July 12, 2010.
  5. ↑ El CSIC advierte: El pulpo Paul eligió a España “por casualidad” servimedia.es, July 9, 2010.
  6. ↑ First published in 1985. Posthumously reissued in Boy Lornsen: The octopus Paul Oktopus. Poems for curious children . Manfred Boje Verlag, Cologne 2009, ISBN 978-3-414-82148-5 .
  7. ↑ International German PR Prize 2011 (accessed July 24, 2014)
  8. ↑ Paul types on Spain and Germany . Reuters Germany, July 9, 2010.
  9. ^ Paul the octopus makes waves - and enemies In: The Times of India , July 9, 2010.
  10. ↑ Oberhausen Oracle. Octopus Paul guesses Germany and Spain . In: Welt Online , July 7, 2010, accessed July 11, 2010.
  11. ↑ a b World Cup Final a Battle of Octopus vs. Parakeet . CBS News. July 9, 2010. Retrieved January 26, 2011.
  12. ↑ La martingale de Paul le poulpe passée au crible . In: lefigaro.fr , July 9, 2010.
  13. ↑ This is why Paul the octopus chose Spain . In: Die Welt , July 8, 2010.
  14. ↑ Kraken expert reassures DFB fans: Oracle Paul is not infallible . In: n-tv , July 7, 2010.
  15. ^ Paul, eight-legged oracle of the World Cup wins again . In: Daily Mail , July 9, 2010.
  16. ↑ Paul the octopus becomes an "honorary citizen" in Spain . In: Spiegel Online , July 13, 2010.
  17. ^ Alfred Brendel : The pianist as an octopus . In: Yearbook 2009–2010 of the Institute for Advanced Studies in Berlin, pp. 33–36
  18. ↑ Paul the octopus guesses that Germany will win against England , Reuters, June 25, 2010.
  19. ^ Scott Murray: World Cup 2010: Argentina v Germany - as it happened . In: The Guardian , July 3, 2010.
  20. ↑ Paul didn't want to extend his tentacles . In: Fifa.com .
  21. ↑ Psychic octopus (named Paul) picks Germany over England in World Cup csmonitor.com, June 26, 2010.
  22. ↑ Psychic Octopus picks Germany to beat Argentina reuters.com, June 29, 2010.
  23. ↑ Paul the psychic octopus: bookmakers take bets on final predictions telegraph.co.uk, 9 July of 2010.
  24. ^ Paul le poulpe, un pronostiqueur quasi infaillible . In: Le Monde , June 29, 2010.
  25. ↑ 的 中 率 100%! 「タ コ の 予 言」 に す が る ド ド イ ツ 人 サ ッ カ ー フ ァ ン. In: AFP BBNews. Retrieved July 4, 2010 .
  26. ↑ Kraken-Oracle Paul - Argentinians want to process it into paella bild.de, July 2, 2010.
  27. ↑ Argentina's wildlife against octopus Paul . ( Memento from July 5, 2010 in the Internet Archive ) In: Süddeutsche Zeitung .
  28. ↑ Thomas Hyde: Germany v Spain: Psychic octopus Paul unfazed by death threats, says keeper. In: Telegraph.co.uk. July 7, 2010, accessed July 11, 2010 .
  29. ↑ Clever octopus. World Cup game: Octopus oracle Paul has guessed . ( Memento of July 9, 2010 in the Internet Archive ) In: Augsburger-Allgemeine.de , July 5, 2010, accessed on January 18, 2020.
  30. ↑ Jean-Charles Pays: Paul is retiring . In: Weser-Kurier , July 13, 2010, p. 7.
  31. ↑ El pulpo 'pepe' también elige a España . In: Málaga Hoy , July 10, 2010, accessed July 20, 2010.
  32. ↑ Animals in the summer slump . In: Zeit Online , July 9, 2010.
  33. ↑ Matthias Winkelmann: The five leading economic research institutes vs. Octopus Paul . ( Memento from July 19, 2010 in the Internet Archive ) In: It's a little more complicated than that , July 15, 2010, accessed on July 20, 2010.
  34. ↑ Oliver Engelmann: Engelmann's proprietary trading. Oracle of Oberhausen: Octopus Paul and the uncertain future . In: Wiwo.de , July 13, 2010, accessed on July 20, 2010.
  35. ↑ Matthias Ackeret : A case for Paul the octopus . In: blog.persoenlich.com , July 18, 2010, accessed July 20, 2010.
  36. ↑ To protect against cooking pot: Spanish minister wants to get Paul . In: Kreiszeitung online , July 8, 2010.
  37. ↑ Dutch cheat at Paul oracle . In: Kreiszeitung online , July 8, 2010.
  38. ↑ Eric Kelsey: Octopus Oracle Paul Shatters German Hopes by Picking Spain . In: Spiegel Online , July 6, 2010 (English online edition).
  39. ↑ Spaniards are offering a transfer fee of 30,000 euros for “Pulpo Paul” . ( Memento from July 13, 2010 in the Internet Archive ) In: FTD.de , July 10, 2010.
  40. ↑ Competitive battle octopus-oracle vs. Prophet Parrot . ( Memento of July 14, 2010 in the Internet Archive ) In: FR online , Jan. 18, 2020.
  41. ↑ El pulpo Paul podría venir pronto a España, El Zoo Aquarium de Madrid negocia un intercambio de animales con el acuario de Oberhausen . In: Diario de Sevilla , July 14, 2010. See Stephen Burgen: Paul the octopus set for sensational transfer to Madrid aquarium . In: Guardian.co.uk. July 15, 2010.
  42. ^ Mondial: l'écrivain uruguayen Galeano juge le poulpe Paul "corrompu" . In: Le Point. July 9, 2010.
  43. ↑ WC hero Psychic Paul boosts octopus consumption in Chinese restaurants. In: Thaindian news. July 14, 2010.
  44. ↑ This is how Paul the octopus became a world star . In: Stern.de , July 9, 2010.
  45. ^ With a sure instinct ( memento from July 17, 2010 in the Internet Archive ) In: Der Westen , July 12, 2010.
  46. ^ Peter Wilkinson: Paul: The first millionaire octopus? In: CNN.com. Retrieved July 15, 2010 .
  47. ↑ Paul, the 3.5 million octopus Focus, July 16, 2010
  48. ↑ Paul the Oracle Octopus becomes an honorary citizen in Spain . In: Hamburger Abendblatt , July 13, 2010.
  49. ↑ focus.de
  50. ^ Mahmoud Ahmadinejad attacks Octopus Paul . Telegraph, July 27, 2010
  51. ↑ Paul's answer according to the Huffington Post
  52. ↑ Stuttgarter Zeitung, July 24, 2010
  53. ↑ Krake becomes advertising star: Does Paul earn millions now? in express.de, accessed on July 30, 2010
  54. ↑ Paul the oracle octopus becomes World Cup ambassador . SF Tagesschau, August 21, 2010
  55. ↑ Sea Life is planning a memorial for the dead oracle Paul derwesten.de, October 26, 2010
  56. ↑ a b c Octopus Paul's successor from next week in the aquarium derwesten.de, October 27, 2010
  57. ↑ World-famous football oracle Paul is dead saarbruecker-zeitung.de, October 26, 2010.
  58. ↑ Paul II is here: The young successor of Paul the octopus refers to Aquarium Abendblatt.de, November 3, 2010
  59. ↑ Elba Island dedicates octopus to Paul Straße ORF News, October 28, 2010.
  60. ↑ Monument in Sealife Oberhausen commemorates oracle Paul derwesten.de, January 20, 2011.
  61. ↑ Paul the Psychic Octopus: Documentary Tackles the Clairvoyant Cephalopod spiegel.de, June 24, 2011 (English).
  62. ^ The Life and Times of Paul the Psychic Octopus at IMDb, website for the film
  63. ↑ Google Doodle as of June 17, 2014
  64. ↑ Google Doodle as of July 14, 2014