Scottish independence referendum 2014

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Council Areas referendum result :
Should Scotland be an independent state? 55.0–57.5% Yes 52.5–55.0% Yes 50.0–52.5% Yes 50.0–52.5% No 52.5–55.0% No 55.0–57 , 5% no 57.5–60.0% no 60.0–62.5% no 62.5–65.0% no 65.0–67.5% no











A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ( English Scottish independence referendum ) was held on September 18, 2014. The end result was 55.3% no and 44.7% yes, with a turnout of 84.59%, thereby rejecting Scotland's independence by a majority of voters. Only in four of the 32 districts did supporters of independence win a majority. A poll at the polls showed that for “no” voters maintaining the pound sterling was crucial, while for “yes” voters an “aversion to Westminster politics” was the main motivation.

After the decision of the British electorate for the emergence of the United Kingdom from the European Union who said First Minister , Nicola Sturgeon , they find it unacceptable that Scotland automatically with England from the EU austrete, although the Scottish voters had voted by a majority for remaining. According to her, another referendum on Scottish independence is an option.

Historical

Regionalization and referendums

Scotland's location within the UK

After the Second World War , Scottish regional parties gradually gained popularity. A widely noticed signal was the victory of the separatist Scottish National Party (SNP) candidate , Winnie Ewing , in the by-election in the Scottish constituency of Hamilton on November 2, 1967. After extensive oil and natural gas reserves were discovered off the Scottish coast, the SNP received , which claimed these natural treasures for Scotland alone, gained considerable popularity and won 22% of the general election in February 1974 and 30% in October 1974 in Scotland. The London Labor government under James Callaghan then decided to accommodate the Scottish desire for autonomy and held a referendum in 1979 on the transfer of state rights to a Scottish parliament . Despite a narrow majority in favor of the so-called devolution , a Scottish parliament was not set up, as less than 40% of the electorate had voted “yes”. The vote was therefore not considered valid.

No further constitutional amendments were proposed between 1979 and 1997 under the Conservative Thatcher and Major governments . Soon after the Labor Party came to power, a second referendum on devolution was held in 1997 . A clear majority supported both a Scottish regional parliament and the authority of this parliament to change the property tax rates of income tax. However, this limited self-government of Scotland within the United Kingdom was not enough for the Scottish National Party and other separatist parties whose goal is the full independence of Scotland.

SNP minority government from 2007

Scotland's First Minister Alex Salmond and Deputy Nicola Sturgeon at the start of the National Conversation , August 14, 2007
Plenary Chamber of the Scottish Parliament

In the Scottish parliamentary elections in 2007 , the SNP became the strongest party in the Scottish Parliament, but missed an absolute majority. Before the election, the SNP had declared holding a referendum on Scottish independence in 2010 one of its campaign goals. After the election, she formed a minority government with Alex Salmond as First Minister . In accordance with its promises, the SNP government started the so-called National Conversation in August 2007 as a consultation process which, among other things , drafted a bill for a referendum law, the Referendum (Scotland) Bill . After the formation of the Scottish government in 2007, the SNP pursued the goal of not holding any referendums before 2010.

The legislative plans for the referendum law were presented by the Scottish government in late August / early September 2009. As a central result of the National Conversation, a white paper on the proposed referendum law was published on November 30, 2009 . The paper contains four possible scenarios, with the text of the law and the referendum being published later. The scenarios consist of four options:

  1. no changes,
  2. Regionalization in line with the Commission's ideas on Scottish regionalization (Calman Review) ,
  3. full regionalization and
  4. complete independence.

The full regionalization option, although not full independence, would give the Scottish Parliament jurisdiction over the vast majority of taxes and expenses in Scotland, with a payment to the United Kingdom to cover the cost of common public facilities and expenses Services such as defense and external affairs. While the SNP government only supported full independence, the paper confirmed that the referendum law would provide the basis for a multi-optional referendum, and called on opposition parties to propose a portable form for these options.

The Scottish Government published an 84-page bill for public negotiations on February 25, 2010 under the name Scotland's Future: Draft Referendum (Scotland) Bill Consultation Paper . The paper presents the proposed voting papers, the mechanisms of the proposed referendum and the way in which the proposed referendum is regulated.

The draft law outlines three proposals. The first proposal (“devolution max”) involved full regionalization with the proposal to give the Scottish Parliament responsibility for “all laws, taxes and duties in Scotland” with the exception of “defense and foreign affairs, financial regulation, monetary policy and Currency 'which would still be reserved for the UK Government.

The second proposal outlined a fiscal reform in line with the Commission's proposals on Scottish regionalization, which would give Scotland additional roles and responsibilities in setting a Scotland-wide income tax rate ranging up to 10p per pound sterling relative to the rest of the UK, the Setting the rate of stamp duty and other negligible taxes and the introduction of new taxes in Scotland with the approval of the UK Parliament and finally "limited eligibility to borrow".

The third proposal meant full independence, which would result in the Scottish Parliament gaining the power to make Scotland a country that would have "the rights and responsibilities of a normal sovereign state". This state should be a full member of the European Union with appropriate social and economic ties to the rest of the United Kingdom, which is already a member state. Elizabeth II would remain Scotland's head of state , so that Scotland would enter a kind of monarchical union with the rest of the United Kingdom, as existed between 1603 and 1707 through the "Union of the Crowns" (two countries, one monarch). The pound sterling would remain the currency of Scotland if the Scottish electorate did not decide to adopt the euro , which would require a separate referendum.

In the 3rd term of the Scottish Parliament, only 50 of the 129 members of the Scottish Parliament (47 SNP, two from the Scottish Green Party and Margo McDonald ) supported a referendum, while all other main parties opposed it. A non-binding vote on a referendum was initiated by the Liberal Democrats in March 2009 as an appendix to a Labor Party debate on economic issues. The SNP's position was defeated by a majority of 25 votes (47–72). In view of the opposition of the other major parties and the position of the SNP as a minority government, it was not to be expected that the SNP would be able to pass the referendum law in the event of the final proposal before the Scottish Parliament, which meant that a referendum could not be held. The Scottish government eventually decided to withdraw the law after failing to secure support from opposition parties.

SNP sole government from 2011

The Scottish National Party renewed its commitment to holding a referendum on independence when it published its manifesto for the 2011 Scottish general election . In a televised debate a few days before the election, First Minister of Scotland Alex Salmond stated that a referendum would be held in the "second part of the legislature". Salmond said this was necessary because he first wanted to secure more powers for the Scottish Parliament through the 2011 Scotland Act. With 69 of 129 seats (44% of the votes cast), the SNP won an absolute majority in the election and thus a mandate to hold an independence referendum.

In January 2012, the UK government, headed by David Cameron, offered to legislate the Scottish Parliament with specific power to hold a referendum as long as it was "fair, lawful and determined". This would define the framework of the referendum such as the question (s) asked, the electorate concerned and the body organizing the referendum. The Scottish government announced that it intended to hold the referendum in autumn 2014 and rejected the UK government's offer. The year 2014 also has a certain symbolic meaning as June 23 and 24, 2014 marked the day of the Battle of Bannockburn , when Scotland asserted its independence from England 700 years ago.

Legality of a referendum

There were differing views as to whether the Scottish Parliament had the power to take legal decisions for a referendum on the matter of Scottish independence. In the current system of regionalization in Scotland, the Scottish Parliament does not have the right to unilaterally declare separation from the UK because the Constitution is a matter reserved for the UK Parliament. The Scottish Government took the position that the proposed referendum was an advisory referendum on extending the power of the Scottish Parliament, the outcome of which would have no legal effect on the UK.

In January 2012, the UK government declared that holding a referendum on the Constitution was outside the legal competence of the Scottish Parliament. Lord Wallace , Advocate General of Scotland, said a referendum law by the Scottish Parliament could be successfully challenged in court. In order to prevent this, the concept arose that the UK Parliament could temporarily transfer appropriate legal powers to the Scottish Parliament, provided that only a yes or no vote on independence would be voted on. This would have meant that further regionalization would have been excluded as a further option. The Scottish government initially rejected this condition, but ultimately agreed to it in the Edinburgh Agreement.

Edinburgh Agreement of October 15, 2012

An agreement between Prime Minister David Cameron and First Minister of the Scottish Regional Government Alex Salmond was signed in Edinburgh on October 15, 2012 , according to which a referendum on independence would be held in Scotland in autumn 2014. The agreement stipulated that a simple yes / no question should be voted on. The Scottish SNP-led government would have liked to have connected the referendum with questions about the transfer of additional rights to the Scottish regional government (“devolution max”). However, due to the requirement from London that it could only vote yes and no to independence, the Scottish government was unable to assert itself on this issue. For this purpose, the voting age for this referendum was reduced from 18 to 16 years in accordance with the ideas of the SNP. The agreement put the planned referendum on a clear legal basis. Salmond spoke of “an historic day for Scotland” after the agreement.

On November 9, 2012, the Scottish Government announced its preferred version of the question to be asked in the referendum. The question to be answered with "yes" or "no" was:

"Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?"

"Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent state?"

- Question of the referendum on the Scottish Government draft

This was preceded by a survey of the Scottish public by the Scottish Government, in which approximately 26,000 people expressed themselves, of whom 64% had broadly agreed with the proposed wording of the question. On January 16, 2013, the House of Lords unanimously approved the authorization of the Scottish Government to hold such a referendum. On January 30, 2013, the Scottish Government agreed to a change in the wording of the question after criticism had been expressed that the previous wording could have led to an influence in the sense of a “yes” vote. The new formulation was:

"Should Scotland be an independent country?"

"Should Scotland be an independent state?"

- Question of the referendum on the January 2013 draft

Preparing the referendum

Eligibility to vote

In January 2012, Labor MP Elaine Murray argued in the Scottish Parliament that suffrage should be extended to Scots living outside Scotland. This was contradicted by the Scottish government, who argued that it would complicate the referendum considerably, citing the United Nations Human Rights Committee's records that a non-residence referendum would be challenged by other nations. In the House of Lords, Elizabeth Symons argued that the rest of the UK should also be allowed to vote on Scottish independence because it would affect the whole country. This argument was rejected by the British government; Jim Wallace pointed out that of the eleven referendums held since 1973, only two have been held across the country. At the special request of the SNP-led Scottish government, the voting age was lowered from 18 to 16 years. Whether this age group would speak out in favor of independence, as the Scottish government had hoped, appeared uncertain.

The Edinburgh Agreement stipulated that all British citizens aged 16 or over residing in Scotland were eligible to vote. In addition to those born in Scotland, this also included citizens from other parts of the United Kingdom who lived in Scotland (around 410,000 people according to the 2001 census: 366,755 native Englishmen, 32,049 Northern Irish, 12,120 Welsh). Not eligible to vote were native Scots residing in other parts of the UK (around 790,000 according to the 2001 census: 753,286 in England, 22,533 in Wales, 14,965 in Northern Ireland). Citizens of EU countries who had their permanent residence in Scotland were also entitled to vote.

Monitoring the referendum

In the 2010 legislative initiative, the Scottish government proposed setting up a new commission to oversee the referendum. Members of this commission are appointed and accountable to the Scottish Parliament. With limited exceptions, the Commission should be completely independent in the conduct of its affairs from the Parliament and Government of Scotland and modeled on the existing UK Electoral Commission. The voting and campaigning rules for the referendum would be based on existing UK legislation, largely based on the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000 . A senior ballot officer would be appointed by Scottish Ministers from among current or former Scottish election officers.

In January 2012 the UK government agreed that the Scottish independence referendum could be monitored by the electoral commission. BBC News reported shortly thereafter that the Scottish government would accept this if the electoral commission was placed under the Scottish Parliament during the referendum.

Campaign Funding and Costs

Based on the 2010 bill, for each specific proposed decision that could be campaigned for, a specific organization would be allowed that would be allowed to spend up to £ 750,000 including expenses on their campaign. These organizations would also be entitled to broadcast a free direct mail to any household or voter. Political parties seated in the Scottish Parliament would be limited to a budget of £ 100,000 including expenses, in addition to any activity through affiliation with any of the aforementioned organizations.

According to a deliberative minutes of the Scottish Government released on February 25, 2010, the cost of holding the referendum was expected to be around £ 9.5 million, most of which would be used for holding the election and counting votes. The cost would also include mailing a neutral information leaflet about the referendum to each Scottish household and mailing a free promotional leaflet to each household or voter for the designated organizations. There should be no public funding for campaigns that are subject to the aforementioned spending restrictions.

Opinion polls

Development of the survey results

In most of the opinion polls following the Edinburgh Agreement, a majority of respondents opposed full independence for Scotland. However, there was a significant number of undecided or indifferent voters. Many surveys were commissioned by media based in London. The Times , The Sunday Times, and The Sun are NewsCorp newspapers . NewsCorp is also the largest shareholder in the Independent Television group . So all of the surveys produced by Ipsos Mori and most of the polls produced by Panelbase were commissioned by NewsCorp media.

While the pro camp was initially on the up in the polls, but suffered setbacks about six months ago, the gap between the pro and contra camps had widened in the months before the referendum according to all polling institutes (TRNS BRMB, Ipsos Mori, ICM, Survation LTD, YouGov and Panelbase) slowly approximated. The erratic survey results by Panelbase , whose client was SNP, are a certain exception . It should also be noted that beyond this general trend, Some published surprisingly different results. In addition, there were residual statistical uncertainties which limited the reliability of the opinion polls. An exact prediction of the referendum was also not possible with absolute certainty due to possible deviations in the information on the weighting of the raw data.

The YouGov poll of September 5, 2014, in which supporters of independence were in the lead with 47% versus 45% just 13 days before the referendum , also attracted particular attention . If you don't take into account the undecided and non-voters, the pro-camp scored 51%.

In none of the surveys was the pro-camp over 50%, in two it was in the lead. At the TRNS BRMB institute, the contra camp was repeated, at Ipsos Mori it was always at or above 50%. The number of respondents was around 1000 each.

Institute Client date Pro
independence
Against
independence
Neutral
undecided
Number of
respondents
Link to the survey
ICM Guardian September 11, 2014 40% 42% 17% ? [1]
YouGov Sun / Times September 11, 2014 45% 50% 4% ? [2]
Survation Daily Record September 9, 2014 42% 48% 10% ? [3]
YouGov Sunday Times 2nd to 5th September 2014 47% 45% 6% 1084 [4] , [5]
Panelbase Yes Scotland 2-4 September 2014 44% 48% 8th % 1063 [6]
Older polls
Institute Client date Pro
independence
Against
independence
Neutral
undecided
Number of
respondents
Link to the survey
YouGov The Times / The Sun August 28 - September 1, 2014 42% 48% 10% 1063 [7]
Survation Scottish Daily Mail 26.-28. August 2014 42% 48% 10% 1001 [8th]
YouGov The Times 12-15 August 2014 38% 51% 11% 1085 [9]
Panelbase Yes Scotland 12-15 August 2014 42% 46% 12% 1026 [10]
ICM Scotland on Sunday 11-14 August 2014 38% 47% 14% 1005 [11]
Survation Scottish Daily Mail 6-7 August 2014 37% 50% 13% 1010 [12]
YouGov The Sun 4th-7th August 2014 35% 55% 10% 1142 [13]
Ipsos Mori STV July 28 - August 3, 2014 40% 54% 6% 1006 [14]
Survation Mail on Sunday July 30th - August 1st, 2014 40% 46% 14% 1000 [15]
Panelbase Sunday Times 16.-22. July 2014 41% 48% 11% 1041 [16]
ICM Scotland on Sunday 7-11 July 2014 34% 45% 21% 1002 ICM / Scotland on Sunday
YouGov The Times 25-29 June 2014 35% 54% 12% 1206 [17]
YouGov The Sun 12-16 June 2014 36% 53% 11% 1039 [18]
ICM Scotland on Sunday 9-12 June 2014 36% 43% 21% 1002 [19]
Panelbase Sunday Herald 9-11 June 2014 43% 47% 10% 1060 [20]
Populus Financial Times June 2014 40% 47% 13% 500 [21]
Ipsos Mori Scottish Television May 26 - June 1, 2014 34% 52% 13% 1.003 [22]
TNS ? 21.-28. May 2014 34% 44% 22% 1.011 [23]
ICM Scotland on Sunday 12-15 May 2014 34% 46% 20% 1.004 [24]
Panelbase Sunday Times 8-14 May 2014 40% 47% 13% 1,046 [25]
TRNS BRMB May 2014 30% 42% 28% 996
TRNS BRMB n / A April 2014 29% 41% 30% 988
YouGov Channel 4 News 25.-28. April 2014 37% 51% 12% 1,208 [26]
Panelbase Yes Scotland 4-9 April 2014 40% 45% 16% 1,024 [27] [28]
Survation Daily Record , Dundee University, and the Better Nation website 4th-7th April 2014 37% 47% 17% 1.003 [29] [30]
Panelbase Wings over Scotland March 28 - April 4, 2014 41% 46% 14% ? [31]
ICM Scotland on Sunday April 2014 39% 42% 19% ? [32]
YouGov The Times 20th - 24th March 2014 37% 52% 11% 1,072 [33]
Panelbase Newsnet 7-14 March 2014 40% 45% 15% 1,036 [34]
Survation Sunday Mail March 2014 39% 48% 13% 1.002 [35]
YouGov Scottish Sun 24.-28. February 2014 35% 53% 12% 1,257 [36]
Ipsos Mori Scottish Television 20th - 25th February 2014 32% 57% 11% 1,001 [37]
Panelbase SNP 18.-21. February 2014 37% 47% 16% 1,022 [38]
Panelbase Sunday Times January 29 - February 6, 2014 37% 49% 14% 1.012 [39]
YouGov The Sun 3rd to 5th February 2014 34% 52% 14% 1,047 [40]
Survation Scottish Daily Mail February 2014 38% 47% 16% 1.005 [41]
YouGov n / A January 2014 33% 52% 15% 1,192
Survation Mail on Sunday January 2014 32% 52% 16% 1.010 [42]
ICM Scotland on Sunday 21.-24. January 2014 37% 44% 19% over 1,000 [43]
TRNS BRMB n / A 14.-20. January 2014 29% 42% 29% 1,054 [44]
TRNS BRMB BBC Scotland 3rd - 10th January 2014 28% 42% 30% 1.008 [45]
TRNS BRMB n / A 3rd - 10th December 2013 27% 41% 33% 1,055 [46]
YouGov The Times 6-9 December 2013 33% 52% 15% 1,074 [47]
Ipsos Mori Scottish Television December 2013 31% 55% 14% 1.006
Panelbase n / A 12-20 November 2013 38% 47% 15% 1.006 [48]
TRNS BRMB n / A November 2013 26% 42% 32% 1.004
Panelbase Wings Over Scotland 17.-24. October 2013 35% 43% 20% 1.008 [49] ( MS Excel ; 384 kB)
TRNS BRMB n / A September 25 - October 2, 2013 25% 44% 31% 1.004 [50] (PDF; 84 kB)
Ipsos Mori Scottish Television 9-15 September 2013 30% 57% 14% 1,000 [51]
ICM Scotland on Sunday 10-13 September 2013 32% 49% 19% 1.002 [52]
YouGov The Times 13-16 September 2013 32% 52% 13% 1,139 [53]
Panelbase Sunday Times August 30 - September 5, 2013 37% 47% 16% 1.002 [54]
Panelbase Scottish National Party 23-28 August 2013 44% 43% 13% 1,001 [55] (PDF; 1.1 MB)
YouGov Devo Plus August 2013 29% 59% 10% 1,171
TRNS BRMB n / A August 2013 25% 47% 28% 1,067 [56]
Panelbase Sunday Times 17.-24. July 2013 37% 46% 17% 1,001 [57] (PDF; 244 kB)
Panelbase Sunday Times 10-16 May 2013 36% 44% 20% 1.004 [58] (PDF; 491 kB)
Ipsos Mori The Times April 29 - May 5, 2013 31% 59% 10% 1,001 [59]
TRNS BRMB n / A April 2013 30% 51% 19% 1.002
Panelbase Sunday Times 18.-22. March 2013 36% 46% 18% 885 [60] (PDF; 354 ​​kB)
Ipsos Mori The Times 4-9 February 2013 34% 55% 11% 1.003 [61]
TRNS BRMB Scottish CND February 2013 33% 52% 15% 1,001
Panelbase Sunday Times 11-21 January 2013 34% 47% 19% 1.004 [62] (PDF; 462 kB)
TRNS BRMB n / A January 2013 30% 58% 12% 1.012
Panelbase Sunday Times 9-19 October 2012 37% 45% 17% 972 [63] (PDF; 326 kB)
Ipsos Mori The Times 8-15 October 2012 30% 58% 12% 1.003

[64]

YouGov DC Thompson October 2012 29% 55% 14% 1.004
Ipsos Mori The Sun 7-14 June 2012 35% 55% 10% 1.003

[65]

Ipsos Mori The Sun 27.-29. January 2012 39% 50% 11% 1.005

[66]

Potential consequences of a positive independence vote

Independence advocates logo
Alex Salmond , First Minister of Scotland and leader of the Yes Scotland campaign
Alistair Darling , former Labor Chancellor of the Exchequer and leader of the Better Together campaign

The consequences of a majority “yes” vote would have been very far-reaching and hardly manageable at the time of the vote.

Basic questions of constitutional and international law

A fundamental question of constitutional law was that of the continuation or legal succession of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland . There were three possible national and international law scenarios:

  1. " Secession " : The Scottish independence is a secession of Scotland from the United Kingdom, the rest of the UK ( "residual Britain") is. Subject identical with the previous United Kingdom, d. that is, this continues with smaller territory, and Scotland is a newly emerged independent state that has to renegotiate all international treaties.
  2. "Separation" : With Scotland's independence, the United Kingdom falls apart into two states. Both are more or less equal legal successors to the United Kingdom.
  3. "Dissolution" (under international law: dismembration ): The United Kingdom dissolves completely as a legal entity and two completely new successor states emerge: Scotland and "Rest of Great Britain". Both states would have to renegotiate bilateral and international treaties.

Of these three possibilities, only the first two were seriously discussed by both the Scottish and the British as a whole. The British government took the first legal position. The Scottish Government had not given an official statement on this issue, but in numerous public statements about the international integration of an independent Scotland, it had indicated that it took the second position. Scottish Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said in a BBC radio interview that "... the UK government is taking an incredibly arrogant position [...] somehow they keep all UK rights and Scotland gets nothing". The Scottish government gave the example of the dissolution of Czechoslovakia on January 1, 1993. Legal experts, however, largely shared the position of the British government and viewed the independence of Scotland as a “secession”, while the remaining “rest of Great Britain” would be identical to the previous United Kingdom under international law.

According to the ideas of the SNP, Queen Elizabeth II should remain the head of state of Scotland even after a state separation. In this case, a separate coronation of future monarchs in Scotland might have been necessary. The Queen maintained strict neutrality in the referendum debate and made no comments on political events. Her only clearer statement four days before the referendum was that she hoped voters would “think very carefully about the future” .

International treaties, membership of an independent Scotland in international organizations

The question of the continuation of international treaties was closely related to the constitutional question described above. The United Kingdom was then a party to nearly 14,000 international treaties, of which around 10,000 were bilateral and the rest multilateral. These contracts covered a wide variety of topics such as B. Agreements on trade, fisheries, customs, legal aid, transport, postal services, defense, double taxation, patent rights, etc. Legal experts stressed that it could not be assumed, if both Scotland and "the rest of Great Britain" were the legal successors of the United Kingdom, that these contracts would automatically continue to be valid without the contracting parties being consulted. Linked to this was the question of whether an independent Scotland would automatically be a member of the European Union (EU) , NATO and the United Nations . The position of the Scottish Government that this is automatically the case, called legal experts "an overly optimistic assertion" ("an overly optimistic assertion") . An independent Scotland would therefore probably have to apply for membership in the institutions mentioned. For example, when joining the EU and NATO, they also had to rely on the approval of “rest of Great Britain”, which would remain a member.

In particular, the question of EU membership of an independent Scotland relaxes many discussions. While Scotland assumed that it would be able to negotiate under Article 48 of the Treaty on European Union , from March 2016 onwards, to become an independent EU member, the London government took the position that Scotland would have to reapply under Article 49 . This discussion was made even more explosive by the fact that David Cameron had promised a referendum by the British on EU membership in 2013 and the mood in Scotland was much more pro-European than in England. In fact, in the “Brexit” referendum on June 23, 2016, 62% of Scots voted to remain in the EU, while a majority of 53.4% ​​of British voted for the UK to leave the EU .

The EU bodies withdrew from the formal position that a new state wishing to become a member of the EU had to apply for membership. It is possible that Scotland that had become independent could have been admitted to the EU in a fast track . It was also conceivable, however, that in the event of conflicts over independence (for example fishing rights) “Rest of Great Britain” could have delayed the rapid admission of Scotland to the EU. According to the then EU Commission President José Manuel Barroso , accession to the EU under Article 49 would have been "very difficult, if not impossible" for Scotland, since the other member states would have to resolve this unanimously, also with the vote of Great Britain. The Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel García-Margallo said in October 2012 that in the event of a positive independence vote , Scotland would have to join the queue for EU accession candidates and would need the approval of each individual EU member state for admission. The background to the skeptical attitude in Spain were fears due to the separatist movement in Catalonia , where an independence referendum was also planned.

Effects on the international position of Great Britain

On the surface, Scottish independence would not have hit the UK very badly. The population with Scotland was 63 million and without Scotland 58 million. The remaining "rest of Great Britain" would have slipped from 21st to 23rd place in the world rankings in terms of population and would still have been the eighth largest economy in the world. “Rest of Great Britain” (sometimes called Little Britain ) would have continued to occupy a leading position in international organizations and would have retained its permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council .

A report by a commission of the British Parliament on April 23, 2013 said that a “yes” vote would inevitably lead to a worldwide loss of reputation for the United Kingdom. The United Kingdom would have been perceived as a "state whose weight and influence were in decline". A rump kingdom that had shrunk around Scotland and was also outside the Eurozone might only have been able to take on the status of a “European diplomatic Lilliputian ”.

Scotland's Nuclear Weapons Freedom

The London government has stated on several occasions that it does not want to renounce nuclear weapons, while the Scottish regional government strives for a nuclear weapons-free Scotland. This would have implied the withdrawal of the nuclear-armed submarines from the Scottish bases of Faslane-on-Clyde and Coulport , and a new base would have had to be found or established.

Economic strength of an independent Scotland

Great discussions ensued over the question of whether an independent Scotland would have been economically viable at all. The Scottish Government, led by the SNP, stressed that Scotland “could afford independence” and that Scotland had paid more tax per capita than the rest of the UK over the past 30 years. The Scottish Prime Minister Alex Salmond accused the government in London of having promoted income inequality in the United Kingdom and unilaterally the financial center of London. Also, no reserves for the future have been created with the income from oil production (such as the Norwegian pension fund with a volume of several hundred billion euros). An independent Scotland would have strengths not only in the oil and financial sectors, but also in the food and beverage industry, the creative industries and biotechnology. Salmond also emphasized, however, that Scotland and the "rest of the United Kingdom" could have remained "closest allies and best neighbors" after Scotland gained independence.

In a speech on June 25, 2012 at the start of the anti-independence campaign's Better Together campaign, the former Labor Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling emphasized that an independent Scotland would “naturally” be economically viable. He welcomed the referendum as an opportunity for the "patriotism of the silent majority" to express itself. He warned that a yes to independence would be an irreversible and irrevocable decision and a decision for future generations too. They should not be given a one-way ticket with a deeply uncertain destination (a one-way ticket to a deeply uncertain destination) . It would be better if Scotland and the rest of the UK stood together without neighbors. In a United Kingdom including Scotland, Scottish values ​​could best be realized and Scottish society would benefit from this community too.

Currency of an independent Scotland

A major issue was the question of the future currency of an independent Scotland. The British pound also enjoyed considerable confidence among the people of Scotland, while for example the introduction of the euro was only supported by a small minority. The SNP therefore wanted to keep the pound as the currency of an independent Scotland, so it aimed at a monetary union with the rest of the United Kingdom. The director of the Bank of England, Mark Carney , expressed the opinion in an interview that an independent Scotland would have to forego some sovereign rights in the area of ​​financial and economic policy if it wanted to remain in a monetary union with the rest of the United Kingdom, as the SNP Government aspired to. Politicians from the parties that rejected Scotland's independence were more explicit. The conservative Chancellor of the Exchequer in the cabinet Cameron George Osborne and politicians from the Liberal Democrats and the Labor Party spoke out clearly against a monetary union if Scotland were to become independent.

Implementation and result

The referendum on Scotland's independence from the United Kingdom took place on Thursday, September 18, 2014, from 7:00 a.m. to 10:00 p.m. ( UTC + 1 local time ). 4.3 million had registered for the election, around 97 percent of those eligible to vote. They voted in 32 regional electoral districts. The UK government pledged that if a relative majority votes for independence, Scotland would become independent after a process of negotiation by March 24, 2016; however, if a simple majority votes against independence, Scotland will remain in the UK.

Result

On September 19, 2014 at 7:15 am, the results of 31 of the 32 electoral districts were known; the result from the Highland district, which was still unknown at the time , no longer had any influence on the final result. The majority of the electorate voted against independence. The difference between no and yes votes was 375,767 votes at the end.

Council Area Pro
independence
Against
independence
Eligible voters voter turnout
City of Aberdeen 41.39% (59,390) 58.61% (84,094) 0.175,740 81.65%
Aberdeenshire 39.64% (71,337) 60.36% (108,606) 0.206,487 87.14%
Angus 42.68% (35,044) 56.32% (45,192) 0.093,551 85.77%
Argyll and Bute 41.48% (26,324) 58.52% (37,143) 0.072.002 88.15%
Clackmannanshire 46.20% (16,350) 53.80% (19,036) 0.039,970 88.53%
Dumfries and Galloway 34.33% (36,614) 65.67% (70,039) 0.124,956 85.35%
City of Dundee 57.35% (53,620) 42.65% (39,880) 0.118,721 78.76%
East Ayrshire 47.22% (39,762) 52.78% (44,442) 0.099,662 84.49%
East Dunbartonshire 38.80% (30,624) 61.20% (48,314) 0.086,836 90.90%
East Lothian 38.28% (27,467) 61.72% (44,283) 0.081,931 87.57%
East Renfrewshire 36.81% (24,287) 63.19% (41,690) 0.072.994 90.39%
City of Edinburgh 38.90% (123,927) 61.10% (194,638) 0.377.413 84.41%
Falkirk 46.33% (50,089) 53.67% (58,030) 0.122,453 88.29%
Fife 44.95% (114,148) 55.05% (139,788) 0.302.108 84.05%
City of Glasgow 53.49% (194,779) 46.51% (169,347) 0.486.219 74.89%
Highland 47.08% (78,069) 52.92% (87,739) 0.190,782 86.91%
Inverclyde 49.92% (27,243) 50.08% (27,329) 0.062,482 87.34%
Midlothian 43.70% (26,370) 56.30% (33,972) 0.069,613 86.68%
Moray 42.44% (27,232) 57.56% (36,935) 0.075,170 85.36%
North Ayrshire 48.99% (47,072) 51.01% (49,016) 0.113.924 84.34%
North Lanarkshire 51.06% (115,783) 48.94% (110,992) 0.268,697 84.40%
Orkney Islands 32.80% (4,883) 67.20% (10,004) 0.017,515 85.00%
Perth and Kinross 39.81% (41,475) 60.19% (62,714) 0.120.015 86.81%
Renfrewshire 47.19% (55,466) 52.81% (62,067) 0.134,737 87.23%
Scottish Borders 33.44% (27,906) 66.56% (55,553) 0.095,533 87.36%
Shetland 36.29% (5,669) 63.71% (9,951) 0.018,514 84.37%
South Ayrshire 42.13% (34,402) 57.87% (47,247) 0.094,888 86.05%
South Lanarkshire 47.45% (109,990) 52.55% (121,800) 0.261.152 88.76%
Stirling 40.00% (25,010) 60.00% (37,513) 0.069,029 90.57%
West Dunbartonshire 53.96% (33,720) 46.04% (28,776) 0.071,109 87.89%
West Lothian 44.82% (53,342) 55.18% (65,682) 0.138,212 86.12%
Na h-Eileanan Siar 46.58% (9,195) 53.42% (10,544) 0.022,908 86.17%
total 44.82% (1,626,589) 55.18% (2,002,356) 4,285,323 84.68%

Election analysis

On election day, Lord Ashcroft Polls conducted a survey of more than 2,000 voters directly at the polling stations in order to identify the main reasons for their voting decision. This survey showed that (57%) maintaining the British pound was crucial for more than half of the "No 'voters, while a" dislike of Westminster politics "(for" Yes' voters disaffection with Westminster politics was) the main motivation .

Reactions to the result

First Minister Alex Salmond (SNP) admitted early that morning that Scotland had decided that it would not become an independent country. He accepted the defeat and at the same time called on the British government to keep the promise of more autonomy rights. "Scotland expects these to be met in quick succession," he said in a speech televised live on British television. In the course of the day Salmond finally announced his resignation as party chairman and head of government: For him as a top politician the time was almost up, but for Scotland the campaign was going on. "The dream will never die," he said on Friday afternoon in Edinburgh. The Queen urged reconciliation from her Scottish residence Balmoral and declared that the British were united by their "eternal love for Scotland". Immediately after the result of the referendum was announced, British Prime Minister Cameron announced a comprehensive constitutional reform for the whole of Great Britain, which would give Scotland, as well as the other countries of the United Kingdom, more powers.

See also

Web links

Commons : Scottish independence referendum  - collection of pictures, videos and audio files

Individual evidence

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