State election in Schleswig-Holstein 2012
The election for the 18th state parliament of Schleswig-Holstein took place on May 6, 2012 . It was made necessary by a ruling by the State Constitutional Court on August 30, 2010.
Election result
The final result of the 2012 state election:
| First votes | percent | Second votes | percent | Difference to 2009 (percentage points) |
Direct mandates | Seats | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDU | 485.709 | 36.8 | 408,637 | 30.8 | −0.7 | 22nd | 22nd |
| SPD | 472,752 | 35.8 | 404.048 | 30.4 | +5.0 | 13 | 22nd |
| GREEN | 139,888 | 10.6 | 174,953 | 13.2 | +0.8 | 0 | 10 |
| FDP | 56,493 | 4.3 | 108,953 | 8.2 | −6.7 | 0 | 6th |
| PIRATES | 97,335 | 7.4 | 108.902 | 8.2 | +6.4 | 0 | 6th |
| SSW | 32,565 | 2.5 | 61.025 | 4.6 | +0.3 | 0 | 3 |
| LEFT | 32,090 | 2.4 | 29,900 | 2.3 | −3.7 | 0 | 0 |
| family | n / A | n / A | 12,758 | 1.0 | +0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| NPD | 1,503 | 0.1 | 9,832 | 0.7 | −0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Free voters | n / A | n / A | 7,823 | 0.6 | −0.4 | 0 | 0 |
| MUD | n / A | n / A | 1,621 | 0.1 | +0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| The party | 467 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Individual applicants | 1,408 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | |||
| valid votes cast | 1.320.210 | 100.0 | 1,328,452 | 100.0 | 35 | 69 |
The turnout fell by 13.4 percentage points to only 60.2 percent. The FDP was 51 votes ahead of the Pirate Party, which can be relevant when filling state parliament committees. With 0.96%, the family party just missed the applicable one percent hurdle for receiving funds from state party funding for the purpose of reimbursement of election campaign costs. The missing 0.04% corresponds to fewer than 500 voters.
Starting position
The 17th election to the Schleswig-Holstein state parliament took place on September 27, 2009 at the same time as the federal election. The election marked losses for the two partners in the grand coalition , CDU and SPD, and corresponding gains for the smaller parties. The CDU and FDP together achieved 46.4 percent of the vote, the other parties in the state parliament (SPD, Greens, Left and SSW) a total of 48.1 percent. Nevertheless, the black-yellow coalition had the majority in the state parliament with 48 out of 95 seats, mainly due to 11 overhang seats from the CDU. The allocation of compensation mandates for the other parties was, however, imprecisely regulated in the state election regulations. On October 16, 2009, the state election committee decided on the interpretation preferred by the state returning officer, with 14 compensation mandates, which the CDU and FDP secured a majority. The Greens and SSW sued the state constitutional court against the distribution of mandates, the left joined the lawsuit after the meeting of the new state parliament. In its judgment of August 30, 2010, the court ruled that the state election law was unconstitutional due to the unequal weighting of votes and the possibility of significantly exceeding the maximum number of MPs provided for in the constitution. The electoral law had to be changed by May 31, 2011 and a new state parliament had to be elected by September 30, 2012 at the latest. The previous distribution of seats in the Landtag elected in 2009 remained the same.
Voters and decision making
Eligible voters
With around 2,240,000 eligible voters, their number rose by 19,000 compared to 2009. That was the largest number since the first state election in 1947 . There were 76,000 first-time voters among the voters.
Canvassing
The CDU and its youth organization Junge Union launched a campaign against the so-called " Danes traffic light " during the election campaign . The SPD pasted 32,000 posters, about half of which featured Torsten Albig, the top candidate. On their election posters, the GRÜNEN relied primarily on the top candidate Robert Habeck and at the same time criticized the election advertising of the FDP, as their faction had sent direct mail. However, it was not made clear that it was advertising by the party itself. The Pirate Party hung a total of 18,000 election posters. Free voters and the family party presented themselves as a bourgeois alternative to the CDU and FDP.
There was a special feature in Flensburg , where parties are only allowed to advertise on a few official walls that are approved by the city. Another peculiarity exists on the North Frisian Islands , where election posters have officially been dispensed with for around 40 years. The Föhrer SPD refused this boycott for the first time and put up six election posters.
Internet
In addition to the election decision aid Wahl-O-Mat , which was used almost 250,000 times, betting game exchanges were used to predict the results of the parties, in which a total of around 1,500 people took part, on the PESM websites for the state election on the websites of Wahlfieber and Wahlrecht .
In addition, parliamentwatch.de again offered a direct candidate survey.
media
On May 2, 2012, a television duel with the top candidates of the two major parties, Jost de Jager (CDU) and Torsten Albig (SPD), took place on NDR television , which, according to the NDR, was followed by around 80,000 viewers in Schleswig-Holstein alone has been. Separately from this, a television duel took place on the same day with the top candidates of the smaller parties represented in the state parliament, Wolfgang Kubicki (FDP), Robert Habeck (Greens), Anke Spoorendonk (SSW) and Antje Jansen (Left).
Constituencies and constituencies
In order to implement the constitutional requirements, the parliamentary groups of CDU, SPD and FDP agreed in spring 2011 on an amendment to the state constitution and the state election law. The state parliament passed the corresponding law on March 29, 2011. The target size of the state parliament with 69 members, previously standardized in Article 10 of the state constitution, was adopted in the state election law. Instead of the previous 40, one direct candidate has now been elected in 35 constituencies. Surplus mandates that result from a plurality of direct mandates compared to the portion calculated from the second vote result are fully offset. Instead of the previous 25, constituencies can now only have 20% more eligible voters than an average constituency. The right to vote with two votes was retained. The seat allocation system has been changed. Instead of the previous D'Hondt , the seats are now allocated according to the distribution principle according to Sainte-Laguë . Had the D'Hondt procedure been applied unchanged, the CDU would have received one more seat and the Greens one seat less.
The five percent hurdle applies to the parties participating in the election. As a result of the Bonn-Copenhagen declarations , parties belonging to the Danish minority are exempt from this, which is the case for the SSW.
Parties and candidates
The following parties have been approved by the regional returning officers:
| Political party | Abbreviation | Members | Result 2009 | Direct candidates | Top candidate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Democratic Union of Germany | CDU | 24,000 | 31.5% | 35 | Jost de Jager |
| Social Democratic Party of Germany | SPD | 19,000 | 25.4% | 35 | Torsten Albig |
| Free Democratic Party | FDP | 2,280 | 14.9% | 35 | Wolfgang Kubicki |
| Alliance 90 / The Greens | GREEN | 2,074 | 12.4% | 35 | Robert Habeck |
| The left | THE LEFT | 987 | 6.0% | 35 | Antje Jansen |
| South Schleswig Association of Voters | SSW | 3,900 | 4.3% | 11 | Anke Spoorendonk |
| Pirate party | PIRATES | 901 | 1.8% | 34 | Torge Schmidt |
| Free voters | FREE VOTERS | 65 | 1.0% | 0 | Wolfgang Warwel |
| National Democratic Party of Germany | NPD | 220 | 0.9% | 5 | Jens Lütke |
| Family party of Germany | FAMILY | 108 | 0.8% | 0 | Matthias Kortüm |
| Maritime Union Germany | MUD | 78 | - | 0 | Konrad Fischer |
Parties not represented in the state parliament had to submit 1,000 support signatures. The list of the party for labor, rule of law, animal welfare, elite support and grassroots initiative was not approved, but ran in two constituencies with candidates.
Constituency candidates
CDU, SPD, Bündnis 90 / Die Grünen, FDP and the Left put candidates for direct election in all 35 constituencies. Direct candidates ran for the SSW in 11 constituencies.
Among the parties not represented in the state parliament, only the pirates put up constituency candidates on a large scale. They were represented in all constituencies with the exception of constituency 18 (Ostholstein-Nord).
The NPD had direct candidates in five constituencies. The “Party for Labor, Rule of Law, Animal Welfare, Promotion of Elites and grassroots initiative”, which was not approved with its state list, put direct candidates in two constituencies. The other parties only put up candidates for the state list.
Furthermore, there were a total of five non-party candidates, two of them in constituency 3 (Flensburg) and one each in constituencies 2 (Husum), 17 (Plön-Süd / Eutin) and 21 (Steinburg-Ost).
Prime Minister candidates
At the state party conference on May 6, 2011 in Norderstedt , the CDU initially nominated parliamentary group leader Christian von Boetticher as the top candidate after incumbent Peter Harry Carstensen had announced in autumn 2010 that he would not run again. Von Boetticher resigned from the top candidacy on August 14, 2011 after a previous intimate relationship with a then 16-year-old schoolgirl became known. On August 16, 2011, the CDU regional executive nominated the current economics minister Jost de Jager as the new top candidate for the state elections . On November 4, 2011, he was chosen as the top candidate by the CDU state party conference. De Jager was the first candidate for Prime Minister in Schleswig-Holstein's history who did not receive a mandate for the state parliament, as he only ran for number one on the state list and the CDU could only send its 22 direct candidates to the state parliament.
In a membership decision, the SPD had chosen the Lord Mayor of Kiel Torsten Albig as the challenger. He prevailed with 57.2 percent of the votes against the state and parliamentary group chairman of the SPD, Ralf Stegner (32.2 percent), Elmshorn's mayor Brigitte Fronzek (9.1 percent) and Matthias Stein (1.3 percent). The member survey was preceded by an application process that provided for 16 public general assemblies in all districts and cities in the country. Guests who did not have an SPD party book could also take part in these.
Survey
The pre-election polls already predicted a head-to-head race between the ruling CDU and the opposition SPD. Accordingly, slight losses were forecast for the CDU, while substantial gains were forecast for the SPD. The FDP, which had long feared re-entry into the state parliament, added in the final spurt of the election campaign and, despite a significant loss of votes, cleared the five percent hurdle. In their forecasts, the Greens and SSW were close to their results from the previous election . Opinion research foresaw strong gains and a clear entry into the state parliament for the Pirate Party.
For the Sunday question of which party the Schleswig-Holsteiners would vote if there were to be a state election on Sunday, the polls indicated the following proportions in the individual surveys:
| Institute | date | CDU | SPD | FDP | GREEN | LEFT | SSW | Pirates | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GMS | 05/02/2012 | 32% | 33% | 6% | 12% | 2% | 4% | 8th % | 3% |
| Research group elections | 04/27/2012 | 31% | 31% | 7% | 12.5% | 2.5% | 4% | 9% | 3% |
| Infratest dimap | 04/26/2012 | 30% | 32% | 6% | 13% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 9% | 3% |
| Infratest dimap | 04/19/2012 | 31% | 32% | 5% | 13% | 2% | 4% | 10% | 3% |
| Infratest dimap | 04/12/2012 | 32% | 32% | 4% | 12% | 3% | 4% | 11% | 2% |
| Infratest dimap | 03/29/2012 | 34% | 32% | 4% | 15% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 2% |
| Infratest dimap | March 16, 2012 | 34% | 33% | 4% | 15% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 2% |
| Forsa | 05.03.2012 | 35% | 35% | 2% | 13% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 3% |
| Infratest dimap | 02/17/2012 | 33% | 33% | 3% | 16% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 4% |
| Emnid | 01/20/2012 | 34% | 32% | 4% | 15% | 3% | 3% | 7% | 2% |
| Forsa | 11/18/2011 | 33% | 32% | 3% | 17% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| Infratest dimap | 09/28/2011 | 30% | 34% | 3% | 21% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% |
| Forsa | 08/17/2011 | 30% | 32% | 4% | 19% | 4% | 4% | - | 7% |
| Infratest dimap | 05/17/2011 | 33% | 31% | 4% | 22% | 2% | 4% | 1 % | 3% |
When asked who the Schleswig-Holsteiners would directly elect to be Prime Minister, the polls indicated the following proportions:
| Institute | date | Jost de Jager (CDU) |
Torsten Albig (SPD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Research group elections | 05/06/2012 | 30% | 42% |
| Infratest dimap | 05/06/2012 | 32% | 57% |
| Research group elections | 04/27/2012 | 29% | 44% |
| Infratest dimap | 04/26/2012 | 27% | 49% |
| Infratest dimap | 04/19/2012 | 32% | 56% |
| Infratest dimap | 04/12/2012 | 31% | 53% |
| Infratest dimap | 03/29/2012 | 33% | 49% |
| Infratest dimap | 02/17/2012 | 29% | 45% |
| Infratest dimap | 09/28/2011 | 27% | 45% |
| Forsa | 08/17/2011 | 30% | 34% |
When asked which coalition the Schleswig-Holsteiners prefer, the polls gave the following proportions:
| Institute | date | Red Green | Big coalition | SPD | Black yellow | Black green | CDU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infratest dimap | 02/17/2012 | 28% | 22% | 1 % | 9% | 6% | 2% |
| Infratest dimap | 09/28/2011 | 32% | 17% | 3% | 7% | 9% | 3% |
| Infratest dimap | 09/28/2010 | 28% | 12% | 1 % | 12% | 7% | 4% |
Election night
The first forecasts by ARD ( Infratest dimap ) and ZDF ( Forschungsgruppe Wahlen ) at 6 p.m. saw the CDU at 30.5 percent, the SPD between 29.5 and 30.5 percent, the FDP at 8.5 percent and the Greens between 13 and 14 percent, the left 2.5 percent, the SSW 4.5 percent and the pirates between 8 and 8.5 percent. From this, both channels calculated 22 seats in the state parliament for the CDU and SPD, ten seats for the Greens, six seats each for the FDP and the pirates and three seats in the state parliament for the SSW - a distribution of seats that should not change in the projections for the entire evening and was finally also confirmed by the preliminary official final result. Only Kiel TV calculated a fourth state parliament mandate for the SSW at the expense of the Greens on the basis of the figures published by the State Statistical Office.
The high proportion of the Liberals' vote compared to the last polls, which saw the FDP at six to seven percent, was attributed primarily to the “Kubicki effect” (73 percent according to Infratest dimap). The FDP top man Wolfgang Kubicki , who is very popular in Schleswig-Holstein , then achieved a popularity of 54 percent (compared to 18 percent for Philipp Rösler , the then federal chairman of the party). In addition, the majority of Schleswig-Holsteiners perceived the state FDP as a different party than the federal FDP (63 percent). Nationwide, at the time of the Schleswig-Holstein election, the FDP was only three to five percent in surveys; the party had previously left six state parliaments in a row.
Despite the gain of five percentage points of the vote, the top candidate of the SPD, Torsten Albig, was disappointed with the result for the SPD - he had aimed for a share of the vote around 40 percent. Albig and the top candidates from the Greens and SSW Robert Habeck and Anke Spoorendonk emphasized in the evening that they were planning to form a joint coalition - the so-called " Dänen-Ampel " (also called "Schleswig-Holstein Ampel") - despite the to hold onto only a narrow one-seat majority and continue to strive for it. Torge Schmidt , the top candidate of the pirates, announced in the evening on NDR television that the pirate party could possibly tolerate the "Danish traffic light" depending on discussions with these parties.
The top candidate of the CDU Jost de Jager offered the SPD, FDP and the Greens talks to form a viable, stable state government - an offer that was not welcomed by either the SPD and the Greens or the previous coalition partner FDP. De Jager himself did not win a Landtag mandate in the election because the CDU won its 22 Landtag mandates directly and thus the CDU state list, on which he occupied first place, did not come into play.
Coalition negotiations
After successful exploratory talks, coalition negotiations on the Danish traffic light from the SPD , Greens and SSW took place . After the coalition negotiations were concluded, Torsten Albig ( SPD ) was elected Prime Minister with 37 out of 69 votes. He received at least two votes from the ranks of the opposition, as the government factions only have 35 members.
See also
Web links
- State Returning Officer Schleswig-Holstein
- Election Atlas (SVG) - interim or provisional result of the 2012 state elections by constituency, final result 2009
- Norddeutscher Rundfunk ( Memento from May 8, 2012 in the Internet Archive )
- Wahlrecht.de
Individual evidence
- ↑ a b Official final result (PDF; 25 kB). Statistical Office for Hamburg and Schleswig-Holstein.
- ↑ Article on Welt Online on the state election
- ↑ Information from the state government about the determination of the election day ( memento of the original from January 2, 2012 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link has been inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice.
- ↑ [1]
- ↑ Preliminary official final result with calculation of the compensation mandates ( memento of the original from January 31, 2012 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link has been inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice.
- ↑ News Adhoc to confirm the allocation of seats ( memento of the original from October 20, 2009 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. (Link no longer available)
- ↑ Kieler Nachrichten to confirm the black and yellow majority ( page no longer available , search in web archives ) Info: The link was automatically marked as defective. Please check the link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. (Link no longer available)
- ↑ tagesspiegel.de: Coalition stands - election result wobbles - Article from October 16, 2009.
- ↑ State suffrage - limitation of seat compensation, judgment of August 30, 2010. (No longer available online.) Schleswig-Holstein State Constitutional Court, archived from the original on September 5, 2010 ; Retrieved April 9, 2011 . Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice.
- ↑ Parliament must quickly change unconstitutional state electoral law. ( Memento of the original from September 2, 2010 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. Press release by the State Constitutional Court of Schleswig-Holstein from August 30, 2010
- ↑ Never before have so many eligible voters in the north. In: ndr.de. April 24, 2012, accessed May 6, 2012 .
- ↑ CDU has to correct leaflet against a Danish traffic light. April 27, 2012, Retrieved May 5, 2012 .
- ↑ Peter Blechschmidt and Bernd Dörris: Greens accuse the FDP of inadmissible election advertising. In: Süddeutsche.de . May 15, 2012, accessed March 26, 2014 .
- ↑ Greens are calling for the FDP to stop direct mail and cinema commercials. In: Welt.de. May 4, 2012, Retrieved May 5, 2012 .
- ↑ Free voters hope for success in Schleswig-Holstein. (No longer available online.) Formerly in the original ; Retrieved May 5, 2012 . ( Page no longer available , search in web archives ) Info: The link was automatically marked as defective. Please check the link according to the instructions and then remove this notice.
- ^ Election posters - slogan gallery on the roadside. Archived from the original on May 7, 2012 ; Retrieved May 6, 2012 .
- ^ Frank Jung: Election campaign on the North Frisian Islands: The first poster for over 30 years. In: Schlei-Bote . May 3, 2012, accessed March 26, 2014 .
- ↑ [Wahl-o-Mat]
- ↑ PESM election exchange , election fever , suffrage
- ↑ parliament watch
- ↑ Fair TV duel between Albig and de Jager. Norddeutscher Rundfunk (NDR), archived from the original on May 5, 2012 ; Retrieved May 3, 2012 .
- ^ Election round: dispute over education and budget. Norddeutscher Rundfunk (NDR), archived from the original on May 4, 2012 ; Retrieved May 3, 2012 .
- ^ A new right to vote for Schleswig-Holstein - facts, aspects, consequences. (No longer available online.) State Center for Civic Education Schleswig-Holstein from March 7, 2011, archived from the original on May 26, 2011 ; Retrieved April 9, 2011 . Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice.
- ↑ http://www.bpb.de/node/77512
- ↑ http://www.ndr.de/regional/schleswig-holstein/landtagswahlen_schleswig_holstein_2012/portrait/spoorendonk121.html
- ↑ http://wiki.piratenpartei.de/Mitglieder
- ↑ List of approved candidates from the website of the regional returning officer ( page no longer available , search in web archives ) Info: The link was automatically marked as defective. Please check the link according to the instructions and then remove this notice.
- ↑ NDR.de: Von Boetticher wants to be CDU top candidate
- ↑ NDR article on the resignation of Christian von Boetticher and the nomination of Jost de Jager , accessed on August 14, 2011
- ↑ Jost de Jager flies from the Kiel state parliament, Hamburger Abendblatt retrieved May 7, 2012
- ^ SPD Schleswig-Holstein: Torsten Albig wins membership decision
- ↑ Schleswig-Holstein surveys. If there were state elections next Sunday ... Wahlrecht.de, Wilko Zicht and Matthias Cantow, accessed on March 29, 2012 .
- ↑ a b c d e f g h i j k l m polls on the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein .
- ↑ a b ln-online.de: LN survey: Schleswig-Holsteiners punish CDU for sex affair ( memento from April 5, 2012 in the Internet Archive ), accessed on August 17, 2011
- ↑ a b c d e f g h i j Infratest dimap polls on the state election
- ↑ Election analysis by the research group Elections ( Memento of the original from May 10, 2012 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. , accessed on May 6, 2012
- ↑ election analysis by Infratest Dimap ( Memento of 8 May 2012 at the Internet Archive ), accessed 6 May 2012
- ↑ ZDF Politbarometer Extra: Unclear majorities in Kiel , accessed on April 27, 2012
- ↑ The Infrastest dimap numbers are online at tagesschau.de ( Memento of the original from May 8, 2012 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. retrievable.
- ↑ Schleswig-Holsteinische Landeszeitung from March 10, 2012 (online) ( page no longer available , search in web archives ) Info: The link was automatically marked as defective. Please check the link according to the instructions and then remove this notice.
- ↑ CDU top candidate de Jager missed entry into the Kiel parliament ( page no longer available , search in web archives ) Info: The link was automatically marked as defective. Please check the link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. , Kieler Nachrichten, accessed May 7, 2012.
