General election in Portugal 2015

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Final result (in%)
 %
40
30th
20th
10
0
36.86
32.31
10.19
8.25
1.50
1.39
5.77
3.75
Otherwise. G
L / U h
Gains and losses
compared to 2011
 % p
   6th
   4th
   2
   0
  -2
  -4
  -6
  -8th
-10
-12
-10.96
+4.26
+5.02
+0.35
-0.51
+0.35
+2.38
-0.33
Otherwise. G
L / U h
Template: election chart / maintenance / notes
Remarks:
a The result of the PáF was compared with the 2011 election results for PSD and CDS in continental Portugal.
d Electoral alliance of PCP , PEV and ID
e The PSD only entered the Azores and Madeira with its own list.
g Contains the results of the CDS in separate lists in the Azores and Madeira.
h Blank and invalid ballot papers
Preliminary allocation of seats
      
A total of 230 seats

The 2015 parliamentary elections in Portugal took place on October 4th, 2015. The members of the Assembleia da República were elected for the four-year legislative period until 2019. The incumbent government under Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho lost an absolute majority in parliament. The electoral alliance of PSD and CDS , Portugal à Frente (Forward Portugal) , remained the relatively strongest force. The turnout was just under 57 percent.

Electoral system

The Assembleia da República consisted of 230 MPs, of which 226 were elected by eligible voters in Portugal and four by Portuguese registered abroad.

The constituency division followed the administrative structure of Portugal . The 18 districts of mainland Portugal as well as the Azores and Madeira each formed a constituency. In these 20 constituencies, 226 seats were distributed according to the number of voters using the D'Hondt method . There were two constituencies (Europe and the rest of the world) for the Portuguese registered abroad.

The size of the constituencies varied widely. By far the largest constituencies were Lisbon (47 seats) and Porto (39 seats). In contrast, the ten smallest constituencies in Portugal only had two to six seats each. There were only two changes compared to the last election in 2011. The constituency of Santarém lost one seat (a total of 9 instead of 10) and the constituency of Setúbal gained one seat (18 instead of 17).

Each voter had one vote to vote on a party list. Within each constituency, the seats were distributed using the D'Hondt method . Within the list, the seats were assigned according to the order in the list. There was no statutory threshold. As a result, only around two percent of the votes were required for a mandate in Lisbon, compared to well over ten percent in the smaller constituencies.

Constituencies with the number of elected MPs in 2015
Constituencies and elected MPs
No. Constituency
(district) 		registered
voters
MPs to be elected
1 Aveiro 653,541 16
2 Be yes 128,971 3
3 Braga 787.706 19th
4th Bragança 147,485 3
5 Castelo Branco 181,459 4th
6th Coimbra 391.029 9
7th Évora 141,443 3
8th Faro 370,882 9
9 Guarda 163.508 4th
10 Leiria 423.865 10
11 Lisbon 1,901,335 47
12 Portalegre 101 246 2
13 postage 1,591,762 39
14th Santarém 393,387 9
15th Setubal 725.783 18th
16 Viana do Castelo 253.271 6th
17th Vila Real 228 399 5
18th Viseu 371.991 9
19th Azores 227,486 5
20th Madeira 255.748 6th
21st Portuguese in Europe 78,253 2
22nd Portuguese outside Europe 164.273 2
total 9,682,823 230

Starting position

The following parties were represented in parliament before the election:

In the 2015 election, PSD and CDS-PP competed in all constituencies except Azores and Madeira with a common list under the name Portugal à Frente (German: Forward Portugal ).

In the political landscape apart from the established parties represented in parliament, numerous small parties were founded that fought for the favor of the voters. With Nós, Cidadãos! , Juntos pelo Povo , Partido Unido dos Reformados e Pensionistas and the list connection AGIR (consisting of Partido Trabalhista Português and Movimento Alternativa Socialista , which split off from the BE a few years ago ), these are mainly assigned to the left to left-wing populist spectrum.

While the Partido da Terra still succeeded with a seat in the European Parliament in the 2014 European elections, it only lost after the departure of its MEP and draft horse António Marinho e Pinto . This founded his own party, Partido Democrático Republicano, and also took part in the election. The LIVRE / Tempo de Avançar party, founded by Rui Tavares, a former member of the Bloco de Esquerda, also took part in the election for the first time.

Right-wing populist or right-wing extremist parties - such as in other elections in European countries - have and had no meaning apart from the Centro Democrático e Social - Partido Popular and the small party Partido Nacional Renovador in Portugal.

The National Electoral Commission registered a total of 3456 candidates for the 22 constituencies. 705 candidates ran in Lisbon, 30 in each of the two international constituencies.

Campaign issues

Opinion polls since the last election:
             Partido Socialista (PS)              Portugal à Frente (PàF, electoral alliance of PSD and CDS-PP)              Partido Social Democrata (PSD)              Coligação Democrática Unitária (CDU)              Centro Democrático e Social - Partido Popular (CDS-PP)              Bloco de Esquerda (BE)              Livre / Tempo de Avançar (L / TDA)              Partido da Terra (PT)              Partido Democrático Republicano (PDR)

The main topic of the election campaign was future economic policy. Portugal was hit hard by the crisis in the euro area from 2007, experienced a significant increase in unemployment to a maximum of 16.5% on average in 2013 and national debt to 130% of gross domestic product in 2013 and 2014. In the years 2011 to 2013 overall economic output shrank. In 2011, the country had to go under the so-called euro rescue package in order to remain solvent. In return, lenders asked for austerity measures to consolidate public finances, which sparked significant protests in the country and sparked several government crises.

The economic indicators have been improving again since 2014. In 2014 the recession was overcome and economic growth was 0.9%. For 2015 and 2016, economic analysts expect growth of around 1.6% each. In May 2014, Portugal was able to leave the euro rescue package again. The unemployment rate fell in 2014 for the first time in years, to a value of 14.1%. The fact that between 2011 and 2014 485,000 people emigrated from Portugal also apparently contributed to this.

In Portugal's party scene there is no larger protest party that can be compared to SYRIZA in Greece or Podemos in neighboring Spain. There is a basic consensus among the major parties that economic reforms and spending-containment policies are necessary. However, the accents are set differently. The incumbent center-right government under Pedro Passos Coelho intended to continue the previous policy unchanged; the opposition socialists under António Costa demanded an end to austerity and moderate increases in spending. According to the polls, however, the socialists failed to induce a mood of change among the electorate despite the dissatisfaction.

Election result

After counting all votes, PSD and CDS-PP together only received 38.5 percent of the votes. The socialists came to 32.4 percent, the Bloco de Esquerda to 10.2 and the electoral bloc made up of PCP and PEV to 8.3 percent. In the distribution of mandates, Portugal à Frente achieved a significantly stronger result, but clearly missed the absolute majority with 107 seats.

The election winner of the evening was primarily the Bloco de Esquerda, which recorded its best result since its foundation and was thus able to overtake the list of communists and greens (CDU) for the first time. The CDU was nevertheless able to record its best result since the 2002 election.

The election result initially led to a stalemate in parliament. The previous government coalition consisting of the PSD and CDS-PP could not defend its majority, the PS could not win its own absolute majority. Therefore, there were only two real options for forming a government: Either a grand coalition (“Bloco Central”) consisting of PSD / CDS-PP and PS and a center-left government consisting of PS, BE and CDU.

Parties with the highest number of votes by constituency: Portugal à Frente (PàF) Partido Socialista (PS) Partido Social Democrata (PSD) The Tagus was an approximate border. To the south of it, the opposition was predominantly elected, to the north of it the ruling parties.



Results of the left parties represented in parliament in each constituency.
Right parties versus left parties
Result of the general election in Portugal 2015
Political party be right Seats
number % +/- number +/- % +/-
Portugal à Frente ( PSD and CDS-PP ) 1,993,921 36.86 −10.95 102 −22 44.35 −9.57
Partido Social Democrata (PSD) 81,054 1.50 −0.50 5 −2 2.17 −0.87
Partido Socialista (PS) 1,747,685 32.31 +4.25 86 +12 37.37 +5.22
Bloco de Esquerda (BE) 550,892 10.19 +5.01 19th +11 8.26 +4.78
Coligação Democrática Unitária (CDU) 445.980 8.25 +0.34 17th +1 7.39 +0.43
Pessoas - Animais - Natureza (PAN) 75,140 1.39 +0.35 1 +1 0.43 +0.43
Partido Democrático Republicano (PDR) 61,632 1.14 +1.14 - - 0.0 -
Partido Comunista dos Trabalhadores Portugueses (PCTP / MRPP) 59,955 1.11 −0.01 - - 0.0 -
Livre / Tempo de Avançar (L / TDA) 39,340 0.73 +0.73 - - 0.0 -
Partido Nacional Renovador (PNR) 27,269 0.50 +0.19 - - 0.0 -
Partido da Terra (MPT) 22,596 0.42 +0.01 - - 0.0 -
Nós, Cidadãos! (NC) 21,439 0.40 +0.40 - - 0.0 -
AGIR ( PTP and MAS ) 20,749 0.38 +0.14 - - 0.0 -
Partido Popular Monarquico (PPM) 14,897 0.28 +0.01 - - 0.0 -
Juntos pelo Povo (JPP) 14,285 0.26 +0.26 - - 0.0 -
Partido Unido dos Reformados e Pensionistas (PURP) 13,979 0.26 +0.26 - - 0.0 -
Partido Popular (CDS-PP) 7,536 0.14 −0.20 0 −1 0.0 −0.43
Aliança Açores (CDS-PP-PPM) 3,654 0.07 −0.13 - - 0.0 -
Partido Cidadania e Democracia Cristã (PPV / CDC) 2,659 0.05 −0.10 - - 0.0 -
Partido Trabalhista Português (PTP) 1,748 0.03 −0.02 - - 0.0 -
Blank ballot papers 112,851 2.09 −0.57
Invalid ballot 89,544 1.66 +0.22
total 5,408,805 100.0 230 100.0
Valid votes 5,206,410 96.26 +0.34
voter turnout 5,408,805 55.86 −2.21
Eligible voters 9,682,553
Source: Portuguese Ministry of the Interior
  1. ↑ The change in percentage points for electoral alliances that did not run in all of Portugal always refers to the total result of the alliance parties from 2011 in the electoral districts in which the parties started in the alliance, in relation to the total votes in Portugal (for example was the combined result for PSD and CDS-PP 2011 for Portugal without the Azores and Madeira with 2,672,251 votes, which corresponds to a share of votes of 47.82 percent; this results in the change compared to 2015 of -10.95 percent). Accordingly, the changes for the remaining constituencies are only related to the result there (for example, the PSD achieved 111,433 votes in the constituencies Madeira and Azores in 2011, which would have been 1.99 percent and then result in a change of −0.50 percent)
  2. ↑ Did not run in the constituencies of Azores and Madeira
  3. ↑ Only competed alone in the constituencies of the Azores and Madeira, otherwise in the electoral alliance Portugal à Frente
  4. ↑ Not run in Madeira constituency
  5. Jump up in Aliança Açores in the constituency of the Azores together with CDS-PP
  6. ↑ only competed alone in the Madeira constituency
  7. ↑ only in this compilation in the constituency of the Azores
  8. ↑ only competed alone in the Madeira constituency, otherwise in the AGIR alliance

Government formation

When it was clear that Portugal had missed an absolute majority à Frente , Prime Minister and PàF top candidate Passos Coelho announced that he would like to start talks with the socialist party in order to avoid a “political crisis” in Portugal. The socialist candidate, António Costa , did not make clear statements about his plans for the formation of a government, while representatives of the two smaller left parties BE and CDU called on the socialists to form a government and offered their support for it.

On the evening of October 6, 2015, President Aníbal Cavaco Silva announced in a televised address that he had entrusted Prime Minister Passos Coelho with the formation of a new government and called for a government that would ensure “political stability and governability” and “continuity in relations with the EU and to NATO "guarantee. In particular, the BE and CDU perceived these demands as an undermining of their position of power. Before that, however, all left parties in parliament, including the PS, which was still reluctant on election evening, had declared that they would not support a minority government of the PSD and CDS-PP. On October 13th, a conversation between Portugal à Frente and the socialists about forming a government took place, but it failed.

At the same time, the Socialist Party , the left bloc and the two member parties of the CDU alliance, the Portuguese Communist Party and the ecological party "The Greens" , which together have an absolute majority in parliament, started negotiations on a joint government. Such would be the first left-wing coalition government since the 1976 constitution was introduced . The crux of a possible center-left coalition could be relations with the European Union, the retention of the euro and membership in NATO.

On the evening of October 22nd, despite the failed talks between Portugal à frente and PS , Cavaco Silva charged Passos Coelho a second time with the formation of a government. He justified this by saying that Passos Coelho was "the head of the coalition [...] that won the election on October 4th". The three left parties then announced a vote of no confidence. On October 23, the left parties reaffirmed their will to cooperate by jointly electing the socialist Eduardo Ferro Rodrigues as President of Parliament against a candidate from Portugal . On November 10, 2015, 123 of the 230 MPs voted in a no-confidence vote against Coelho and his government.

After the successful vote of no confidence in Passos Coelho, the chairman of the socialists, Costa, raised the right to be appointed head of government. Even before the vote of confidence, the three left parties had announced an agreement to form a government.

On November 23, President Cavaco made Costa’s appointment as Prime Minister subject to conditions. Among other things, he demanded a declaration from Costa that he wanted to form a minority socialist government for the entire legislative period. In addition, Costa should explain how the commitments regarding the budget discipline contractually agreed in the euro area would be met and what the budget plans, especially for 2016, should look like. Cavaco also wanted guarantees with regard to the fulfillment of national obligations towards “organizations of collective defense”, in other words above all towards NATO .

On November 24th, the President finally named Costa Prime Minister after another meeting. He announced that he would form a socialist minority government, i.e. not a coalition, but only to cooperate with the other two left parties. On November 26th the new government was sworn in.

Web links

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ a b Resultados Globais. Ministra da Administração Interna, October 5, 2015, accessed April 22, 2016 (Portuguese).
  2. ↑ Diário da República, October 20, 2015, https://dre.pt/application/file/70722536
  3. ↑ a b Mapa com o número de deputados a eleger para a Assembleia da República ea sua distribuição pelos círculos eleitorais. (PDF) Comissão Nacional de Eleições, accessed on October 1, 2015 (Portuguese, the number of MPs per constituency announced by the electoral commission).
  4. ^ Passos Coelho e Paulo Portas disputam Lisboa com António Costa , publico.pt, accessed on August 24, 2015
  5. ↑ Coligação para as Legislativas chama-se “Portugal à Frente” . expresso.pt; accessed on August 24, 2015
  6. ↑ Mapa geral das candidaturas apresentadas por candidatura e por círculo eleitoral AR 2015. (PDF) Comissão Nacional de Eleições, August 26, 2015, accessed on October 24, 2015 .
  7. ↑ a b Portugal Economic Outlook. focus-economics.com, September 29, 2015, accessed October 4, 2015 .
  8. ↑ Portugal leaves the rescue package. FAZ.net, May 17, 2014, accessed October 4, 2015 .
  9. ↑ a b Portugal vote: Austerity policies face election test. BBC News, October 4, 2015, accessed October 4, 2015 .
  10. ^ Daniel Sulzmann: Conservatives bet on victory. tagesschau.de, October 4, 2015, archived from the original on October 4, 2015 ; Retrieved October 4, 2015 .
  11. ↑ Total Global 2015 - Results em tempo real. RTP, October 5, 2015, accessed October 5, 2015 (Portuguese).
  12. ^ Portugal Continental e Regiões Autónomas - Território Nacional. RTP, October 6, 2015, accessed October 6, 2015 (Portuguese).
  13. ^ Graça Andrade Ramos: Passos promete entendimentos com Partido Socialista. RTP, October 5, 2015, accessed October 5, 2015 (Portuguese).
  14. ↑ Paulo Alexandre Amaral, João Ferreira Pelarigo: Costa evita escada à esquerda para formar governo. RTP, October 5, 2015, accessed October 5, 2015 (Portuguese).
  15. ^ The President instructs Passos to form a government. In: Handelsblatt.de. October 6, 2015, accessed October 7, 2015 .
  16. ^ Government formation faltering. (No longer available online.) Deutschlandfunk , October 14, 2015, formerly in the original ; accessed on October 14, 2015 .  ( Page no longer available , search in web archives )  Info: The link was automatically marked as defective. Please check the link according to the instructions and then remove this notice.@1@ 2Template: Toter Link / www.deutschlandfunk.de  
  17. ↑ Esquerda disponível para formar Governo com PS (Left is available to form government with the Socialist Party)
  18. ↑ PS desafia Bloco e PCP a clarificarem condições para formação de Governo . (Socialist Party calls on the left bloc and the Portuguese Communist Party to clarify the conditions for the formation of a government)
  19. ↑ Passos Coelho in Portugal again charged with forming a government. In: time online . October 22, 2015, accessed October 25, 2015 .
  20. ^ Sandra Louven: Premier on probation. In: Handelsblatt (online). October 23, 2015, accessed October 25, 2015 .
  21. ^ New parliamentary president in office. (No longer available online.) Deutschlandfunk , October 24, 2015, formerly in the original ; Retrieved October 25, 2015 .  ( Page no longer available , search in web archives )  Info: The link was automatically marked as defective. Please check the link according to the instructions and then remove this notice.@1@ 2Template: Toter Link / www.deutschlandfunk.de  
  22. ^ Leo Wieland: Portuguese government overthrown. In: Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (online). November 10, 2015, accessed November 11, 2015 .
  23. ↑ a b Mehreen Khan: Portugal on collision course with EU as center-Right government falls after 11 days. In: The Telegraph (online). November 10, 2015, accessed November 11, 2015 .
  24. ↑ Mehreen Khan: Communists ready to assume power in Portugal and topple Conservative government. In: The Telegraph (online). November 6, 2015, accessed November 11, 2015 .
  25. ^ Cavaco Silva pede a Costa clarificação de dúvidas para formação de governo. RTP, November 23, 2015, accessed November 23, 2015 (Portuguese).
  26. ↑ Thomas Fischer: President sets conditions: opportunity for leftists in Portugal. In: Neue Zürcher Zeitung (online). November 23, 2015, accessed November 24, 2015 .
  27. ↑ Thomas Urban : Portugal moves to the left. In: Süddeutsche Zeitung (online). November 24, 2015, accessed December 5, 2015 .
  28. ^ Portugal: Tensions in the inauguration of the government. ORF, November 26, 2015, accessed on December 5, 2015 .