Election to the Swedish Diet 2018
The election for the Swedish Parliament took place on September 9, 2018. Almost 7.5 million voters were called upon to elect 349 members to the Reichstag . In addition to the parliamentary elections, bundled state and local elections were held in Sweden at the same time . The Social Democrats remained by far the strongest party, but received only 28.3% of the votes - their worst result since the 1908 election .
Starting position
From the general election in 2014 were Social Democrats (S) clearly emerged as the strongest force; they had won one seat in 2014 compared to the 2010 election . The former largest ruling party, the liberal-conservative Moderate Collection Party (M), suffered heavy losses and lost 23 seats. She had governed since 2006 in a coalition with the Center Party (C), the Liberals (L ), then called the People's Party (FP ), and the Christian Democratic Kristdemokraterna (KD), and since 2006 has provided the Prime Minister - Fredrik Reinfeldt . This coalition was replaced by a minority government made up of the Social Democrats and the green Miljöpartiet (MP), which was tolerated by the left Vänsterpartiet (V). The new Prime Minister was Stefan Löfven (S). The immigration-critical populist Sweden Democrats (SD) entered the Reichstag for the first time in the parliamentary elections in 2010 (with 20 members) and again in 2014 (with 49 members).
A total of almost 6,300 candidates ran for the 2018 Reichstag election. Numerous smaller parties competed for mandates, including the Feminist Initiative (Fi), which was only moved into a few municipal councils in 2014 because of the four percent hurdle , the Pirate Party (PP) and the right-wing split-off of the Sverigedemokraterna Alternative for Sweden (AfS).
Electoral process
349 members of the Swedish Reichstag were elected for a legislative period of four years . The Swedish electoral system is based on the principle of proportional representation . The country is divided into 29 constituencies (valkretsar), which essentially correspond to the 21 Swedish Län (provinces). Three of the Län have multiple constituencies: Stockholm County has two constituencies, Skåne County has four and Västra Götalands County has five constituencies.
The 349 mandates of the Reichstag consist of 310 so-called “fixed mandates” (fasta mandat) and 39 compensation mandates (utjämningsmandat). By April 30th of an election year at the latest, the electoral authority will determine how many of the 310 fixed mandates will be assigned to the individual constituencies. A blocking clause of four percent of the votes nationwide applies to the distribution of seats . First, the fixed mandates are distributed proportionally at constituency level. Those parties are also taken into account that failed to meet the nationwide threshold, provided they received at least twelve percent of the votes in the constituency. Then the 349 seats are distributed proportionally to the parties according to the nationwide voting ratio. From this number of seats, the seats already won as fixed constituency mandates are deducted for each party and the remaining seats still to be allocated to it as compensatory mandates. If a party has received more permanent constituency seats than it is entitled to according to nationwide proportional representation, the surplus constituency seats will be deleted in contrast to earlier elections. The so-called “balanced method”, a modification of the Sainte-Laguë procedure, is used for the allocation of seats between the parties .
All Swedish citizens who had reached the age of 18 on election day at the latest were entitled to vote.
Election observation by the OSCE
In Sweden there are ballot papers for the parties at the polling station. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) has criticized the fact that everyone in the room can see which party the voter will vote for; because every voter takes the ballot paper of the party he has elected into the booth, where he puts it in the voting envelope. The OSCE announced that it would send two election observers for the first time in Sweden's history . They should investigate whether the elections are anonymous and whether you can really vote for any party. In previous elections, ballot papers for certain parties were missing in some constituencies.
Election result
Political party | be right | Seats | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
number | % | +/- | number | +/- | ||
Swedish Social Democratic Labor Party (S) | 1,830,386 | 28.3 | −2.7 | 100 | −13 | |
Left Party (V) | 518.454 | 8.0 | +2.3 | 28 | +7 | |
Environment party The Greens (MP) | 285,899 | 4.4 | −2.5 | 16 | −9 | |
Moderate gathering party (M) | 1,284,698 | 19.8 | −3.5 | 70 | −14 | |
Center Party (C) | 557,500 | 8.6 | +2.5 | 31 | +9 | |
Christian Democrats (KD) | 409.478 | 6.3 | +1.8 | 22nd | +6 | |
Liberals (L) | 355,546 | 5.5 | +0.1 | 20th | +1 | |
Sweden Democrats (SD) | 1,135,627 | 17.5 | +4.7 | 62 | +13 | |
Feminist Initiative (FI) | 29,665 | 0.5 | −2.7 | - | - | |
Alternative for Sweden (AfS) | 20,290 | 0.3 | +0.1 | - | - | |
Medborgerlig Samling (MED) | 13,056 | 0.2 | +0.2 | - | - | |
Pirate Party (PP) | 7,326 | 0.1 | −0.3 | - | - | |
Others | 28,800 | 0.4 | +0.4 | - | - | |
total | 6,476,725 | 100 | ± 0 | 349 | ± 0 | |
Valid votes | 6,476,725 | 99.1 | ||||
Invalid ballot papers for unregistered parties | 2.120 | 0.0 | ||||
Invalid blank ballot paper | 53,084 | 0.8 | ||||
Invalid other votes | 3,342 | 0.1 | ||||
voter turnout | 6,535,271 | 87.2 | ||||
Eligible voters | 7,495,936 | 100 | ||||
Source: Val till riksdagen - roaster |
Survey
Last polls before the election
Institute | date | S. | M. | SD | MP | C. | V | L. | KD | Fi | Otherwise. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Post-election surveys | |||||||||||
SVT | 09.09.2018 | 26.2% | 17.8% | 19.2% | 4.2% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 7.4% | - | 1.8% |
Sifo | 09.09.2018 | 25.4% | 18.4% | 16.3% | 5.8% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | - | 2.6% |
Survey | |||||||||||
Inizio | 07.09.2018 | 24.6% | 19.6% | 16.8% | 5.2% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 1.1% | 2.0% |
Sifo | 09/06/2018 | 24.4% | 16.9% | 17.0% | 6.2% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | - | 3.2% |
Demoskop | 09/06/2018 | 26.5% | 17.9% | 17.2% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | - | 2.9% |
SKOP | 09/06/2018 | 23.1% | 17.3% | 17.7% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 0.8% | 3.8% |
Novus | 09/06/2018 | 24.9% | 17.7% | 19.1% | 5.0% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | - | 2.5% |
Sifo | 05.09.2018 | 25.1% | 17.2% | 16.9% | 6.2% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | - | 2.7% |
Ipsos | 05.09.2018 | 25.9% | 17.3% | 16.8% | 4.8% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 1.1% | 2.3% |
SKOP | 05.09.2018 | 22.1% | 18.2% | 19.2% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 1.1% | 3.0% |
Sifo | 04.09.2018 | 25.0% | 17.2% | 17.1% | 5.4% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | - | 2.7% |
Demoskop | 04.09.2018 | 25.5% | 17.8% | 18.2% | 4.8% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | - | 3.3% |
SKOP | 04.09.2018 | 22.5% | 17.1% | 20.0% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 1.2% | 2.2% |
Ipsos | 03.09.2018 | 26.5% | 16.9% | 16.3% | 5.0% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | - | 2.8% |
Sifo | 03.09.2018 | 25.3% | 17.0% | 17.2% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | - | 2.9% |
Inizio | 03.09.2018 | 24.6% | 19.2% | 17.3% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | - | 3.5% |
SKOP | 03.09.2018 | 22.9% | 16.3% | 20.3% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 1.1% | 2.4% |
Sifo | 02.09.2018 | 25.6% | 16.8% | 18.1% | 5.3% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | - | 3.0% |
SKOP | 02.09.2018 | 23.3% | 16.9% | 19.7% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 5.4% | 6.6% | - | 3.5% |
YouGov | 09/01/2018 | 23.8% | 16.5% | 24.8% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 9.4% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 0.6% | 4.8% |
Election 2014 | 09/14/2014 | 31.0% | 23.3% | 12.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
Older polls
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Political blocs / coalitions
With the center-right Allians för Sverige there has been a solid alliance since 2006 consisting of the four Christian and liberal-bourgeois parties Moderaterna , Centerpartiet , Liberalerna and Kristdemokraterna . In contrast, there is a red-green alliance made up of Socialdemokraterna , Miljöpartiet and Vänsterpartiet . Of the larger parties, only the EU-hostile Sverigedemokraterna is not integrated into any potential coalition, since cooperation with it is excluded from the other parties. However, since the Swedish survey institutes also show the party in surveys on coalitions, the data is also shown here.
At no point since the 2014 Reichstag elections did any of the alliances have an absolute majority in parliament based on the polls. In addition, entry into parliament was uncertain for some smaller parties. Even before the election date, analysts of the political stalemate viewed the formation of a government as being made more difficult by the formation of camps.
Monthly mean values of the alliances
month | year | Center-left ( S / MP / V ) |
Center-Right ( M / C / L / KD ) |
SD | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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September | 2018 | 41.5% | 39.5% | 19.0% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
August | 2018 | 41.1% | 38.6% | 20.4% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
July | 2018 | 40.6% | 34.8% | 24.6% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
June | 2018 | 40.0% | 36.5% | 23.6% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
May | 2018 | 40.8% | 37.6% | 21.6% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
April | 2018 | 41.3% | 39.1% | 19.5% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Election 2014 | 09/14/2014 | 45.5% | 41.1% | 13.5% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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After the election
In the 2018 election to the Swedish Parliament, the Social Democrats became the strongest force despite losing 13 seats, ahead of the moderates (-14 seats) and the Sweden Democrats (+ 13 seats). Neither the red-green alliance (144 seats) nor the alliance for Sweden (143 seats) received a majority in the Reichstag. Both camps claimed the office of prime minister for themselves and refused to support the top candidate of the other camp. The Sweden Democrats, who do not belong to either alliance, demanded political concessions in order to tolerate a bourgeois minority government. However, the alliance ruled out such cooperation with the Sweden Democrats.
Deselection of the Prime Minister and explorations
In the mandatory vote on the prime minister on September 25th, Stefan Löfven was voted out of office with 204 no votes, because after the negative parliamentarism practiced in Sweden, the head of government does not need a majority of yes votes, but conversely has to avoid a majority of no votes. Thereupon the President of Parliament Andreas Norlén gave the chairman of the conservative Moderaterna party, Ulf Kristersson , an order to form a government. On October 14, Kristersson declared the exploratory talks for a center-right government over. The exploratory talks with the previous Social Democratic Prime Minister Stefan Löfven also remained unsuccessful. The award of a further exploratory assignment to the center politician Annie Lööf was rejected by moderates and Christian Democrats.
New election attempts of the Prime Minister
In order to dissolve the stalemate, the President of Parliament Norlén announced on November 5 that he would propose to the Reichstag that Kristersson be elected Prime Minister. In the November 14 vote, Kristersson received the votes of the Moderates, the Christian Democrats and the Sweden Democrats. The Center Party and the Liberals refused to approve, even though they had campaigned with Kristersson as part of the alliance for Sweden , as his government would have been dependent on the right-wing populist Sweden Democrats. As a result, Kristersson only achieved 154 votes in favor of 195 against and was not elected. On November 15, Norlén announced that he had commissioned Annie Lööf, leader of the Center Party, to determine the requirements for forming a government. On November 22nd, Lööf announced that she had ended her exploratory talks with no results.
On November 23, Norlén announced that he would propose Löfven as Prime Minister to the Reichstag. Thereupon Annie Lööf and Jan Björklund (Liberals) offered to support Löfven, provided that he was ready to “make a strong right turn”. On December 10th, however, Lööf announced that the negotiations had been unsuccessful and that the Center Party would therefore vote against Löfven.
On December 12th, as announced, Norlén proposed Löfven as Prime Minister to the Reichstag. As expected, he lost the vote on December 14, 2018. Reichstag President Norlén then announced that he would make preparations for a new election in parallel to the upcoming talks with the party leaders.
"Agreement of the Middle"
On January 11, 2019, the Social Democrats, Greens, Center and Liberals announced an agreement according to which the latter two will tolerate a red-green minority government . Central points of the agreement are, among other things, the reduction of taxes by five percentage points for incomes over 662,300 SEK (approx. 66,000 €) per year, the relaxation of protection against dismissal, a promise that the Social Democrats will prohibit private actors in the "welfare sector" (e.g. B. free schools, private polyclinics and private nursing homes) will no longer pursue, as well as the privatization of the employment service. While both the center and the liberals were satisfied with the implementation of “liberal reforms”, the decision was criticized by parts of the social democrats because too many compromises had been made. A new parliamentary vote on the Prime Minister was initially scheduled for January 16, but it had to be postponed: On January 14, Jonas Sjöstedt announced that the Left Party would vote against a Löfven government, which would mean that it would lack the necessary support in the Reichstag. One point of criticism was that the Social Democrats had moved too far to the right, and that the “Middle Agreement” (“Mitteöverenskommelsen”) contained a clause according to which the Left Party should be kept away from any political influence.
Since Sjöstedt announced on January 16 that his Left Party would abstain from voting, it was likely that the vote would result in Löfven being able to take over the office of head of government again with 154 votes against himself. (According to Chapter 6, Paragraph 3 of the “Regeringsformen”, the “State Minister” does not need a majority of yes votes, but must avoid a majority of no votes). In the election on January 18, the old and new Statsminster were elected for another term of office with 115 votes in favor and 77 abstentions and 153 against votes, four MPs stayed away from the vote. This enabled Löfven to take up the post of prime minister again and to present his cabinet.
criticism
The compromise between the Center Party, Liberals, Greens and Social Democrats was heavily criticized after it was announced. Top candidates of the Greens such as the former member of the Reichstag and EU member of Parliament Carl Schlyter said that they could not support the “right-wing economic policy”, as it would lead to an increase in the Sweden Democrats, among other things, and left the party and founded the Party turning point (Partiet vändpunkt) , which can be seen as a left alternative to the Greens. The former member of the Reichstag for the Left Party, Rosana Dinamarca, assessed the decision not to vote against Löfven as a "historical mistake" because the Left Party had given away any possibility of influence.
From the bourgeois camp, the leader of the Center Party, Annie Lööf, was particularly criticized for having promised in 2013 that she would rather eat her right shoe than support the Social Democrats. Therefore, the chairman of the Young Moderates (Moderaternas Ungdomsförbund, MUF) called for the right shoes to be sent to Lööf. The chairman of the moderates, Ulf Kristersson, called the expected government "bad" and said that he saw the Center Party as a "former alliance party". Ebba Busch Thor, chairman of the Christian Democrats, also saw it as a mistake to support Löfven because of this to make politics under the premise of keeping the Sweden Democrats away from political influence.
Sweden Democrat leader Jimmie Åkesson described the new government as "strange, absurd and bizarre". A local politician of his party, Erik Wennerström from Torsby, published a picture on Facebook of Christer Pettersson , who had long been suspected of the murder of Olof Palme , after Löfven was re-elected , and headed it with the question: “Where are you when Sweden needs you ? “Then Wennerström had to resign from his political offices.
Cabinet Löfven II
On January 21, 2019, Stefan Löfven named the ministers in his new government . He gave the Greens the office of minister of culture and democracy, the ministry for the environment and the ministries for development aid and equality. The remaining posts - including defense, finance, economics and the labor market - were filled with Social Democrats.
Web links
Individual evidence
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