Expert council for assessing macroeconomic development

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The Expert Council for the Assessment of Macroeconomic Development , colloquially known as the “five economic methods” , is a body that was introduced in 1963 through a statutory mandate. It deals scientifically with the macroeconomic development in Germany. The aim is the periodic assessment of the macroeconomic development in order to facilitate the formation of judgments of all politically responsible authorities as well as the public.

For this purpose, an annual report is prepared, which is submitted to the federal government by November 15th. At the latest eight weeks after the report has been submitted, the Federal Government will respond to this in the annual economic report . In addition, the council of experts can be commissioned by the respective federal government with the preparation of special reports or can issue a special report itself if a threat to the macroeconomic goals is recognizable in individual areas.

History of the development of the Expert Council

The “five wise men” in 1964 with the Federal President

The existence of the council of experts is legally anchored in the law on the formation of a council of experts to assess macroeconomic developments . This law was passed by the German Bundestag on August 14, 1963 . However, the considerations of forming such an economic council go back further.

First ideas for an advisory body

The US Council of Economic Advisers , whose proximity to the US President was criticized in the German discussion about scientific advice in the early 1950s, is regarded as a model for the Council of Economic Advisors . The Council of Economic Advisers was also not assigned a public role. However, the SVR should have this role. It was conceived as an external and independent body "which should get involved in the public discussion".

On July 8, 1956, the Scientific Advisory Board at the Federal Ministry of Economics and the Scientific Advisory Board at the Federal Ministry of Finance proposed the establishment of an annual "overall picture [s] in the form of an economic program" in the report on instruments for economic policy and their legal institutionalization . In this annual “overall picture”, the Federal Government should report on the economic situation and present its planned economic policy for the coming period. This report should be enshrined in law and submitted to Parliament. In addition, a “central authority for national accounts” should be created, which should be headed by three experts. The reason for this was that the scientific advisory board at the Federal Ministry of Economics no longer saw itself in a position to do the statistical preparatory work for expert opinions. There were financial and personal reasons for this. The central authority should instead provide these statistical bases, but also serve as an advisory body to the government and other public bodies. At this point in time, the FDP and SPD had already made similar proposals, which were taken up here. In December 1955, for example, the FDP introduced a bill that provided for an “economic advisory council”. However, the motion did not find a majority in the Bundestag. The SPD's proposal to set up an “economic advisory council” was also not approved.

Federal Minister of Economics Ludwig Erhard was skeptical of some of these proposals and feared, among other things, that these institutional changes could result in planned economic tendencies in economic policy. Erhard was, however, interested in neutral and factual information and wanted to deal with the many competing conflicts of interest in economic policy, as they are a. caused by politics and trade unions, avoid. In order to achieve this, the opinion of science should no longer appear as isolated voices that have little influence on politics and the public, but rather be represented as a strong, concentrated voice in the public debate.

His aim was therefore to “objectify” the economic policy debates, which should result in “facilitating an economic policy based on common sense”. He was also interested in informing and advising the political public rather than advising the government. He saw these being adequately advised by the Ministry of Economics.

In 1958, Erhard and Federal Labor Minister Theodor Blank proposed an “expert committee for economic and social policy”. However, the proposal was rejected by the Federal Chancellery and the CDU / CSU . Chancellor Konrad Adenauer reacted to the proposal with indignation and is said to have asked the Federal Minister of Economics: "Erhard, do you want to put a louse in a fur?"

Adoption of the law

Due to this vehement rejection, which Erhard's proposal met, the idea was initially rejected and only taken up again in 1961. At that time, an enormous economic boom endangered price stability and wage developments in the FRG. The appreciation of the D-Mark enforced by Erhard was not able to slow growth either. At the beginning of 1962, Ludwig Erhard wrote a letter to Adenauer in which he again proposed the formation of a council of experts, which should offer political decision-makers and collective bargaining partners macroeconomic orientation and exert public pressure. Adenauer feared exactly this, however, since he saw the government's freedom of action and decision-making being restricted. Erhard did not give in this time and also found support in the media. A draft law was introduced in October 1962 by the parliamentary group chairmen of the CDU / CSU and the FDP as an initiative motion in the Bundestag , whereupon the Bundestag commissioned an economic committee to review it. The committee supported the proposal but made changes to the draft. The general ban on recommendations, as initially envisaged, has been toned down (Section 2 SVRG). Erhard wanted to alleviate Adenauer's concern that he had already described. The cooptation procedure , i.e. the appointment of new members by members of the Council, was also canceled. Instead, new members were appointed by the Federal President at the suggestion of the Federal Government (Section 7 SVRG).

The law was passed unanimously in the Bundestag on August 14, 1963 and signed by Federal President Heinrich Lübke and Vice Chancellor Ludwig Erhard (not by Federal Chancellor Adenauer). It was agreed that the Federal Statistical Office in Wiesbaden would be the place of consultation for the Expert Council . It was deliberately chosen not to choose a location in Bonn , as one wanted to emphasize the political independence of the Council of Experts through the geographical distance from the Federal Government.

Tasks of the Expert Council

The tasks of the council of experts and the appointment of the members are regulated in a separate law on the formation of a council of experts to assess the overall economic development . The statutory task of the Expert Council is to present the overall economic situation and its foreseeable development in the sense of a forecast. The aim is to look for ways of keeping the price level stable, avoiding unemployment and maintaining or establishing an external balance. This should all happen within the framework of the free market economy and with steady and appropriate growth. The distribution of income and wealth should also be taken into account. The economic situation is also examined for possible current tensions between demand and supply. Any undesirable developments should be discussed.

The Council pursues the four economic policy objectives known as the Magic Square : stability of the price level (monetary stability), high employment, external balance and steady and appropriate economic growth. He is not allowed to recommend a solution in his report.

Council members

Appeal Rules

The Council has five members who are appointed by the Federal President on the proposal of the Federal Government for a period of five years. Re-appointments are possible. On March 1st, the end of the council year , the term of office of a member ends through the so-called rolling electoral periods of the councils.

Traditionally, is one member on the proposal of the Community Committee of the German Manufacturing Industry ( "Employers Ticket") and the trade unions ( "union Ticket") appointed.

Current members

Members of the council are currently:

former members

(in chronological order)

criticism

The Council of Economic Experts has been criticized for many years. A fundamental criticism is that he mostly does not or hardly fulfills his tasks as defined in the law. Conversely, he regularly disregards the ban on making recommendations. The former "economic approach" Hans-Jürgen Krupp told the Handelsblatt that independent, neutral economics was a fiction, and that the SVR should be freed from the "cloak of neutrality" and converted into an advisory body that the respective government supports in pursuing its goals supported. Alternatively, it is requested that the Council of Economic Experts should be given a broader view of its field of activity by reforming its composition in line with the state of the art.

Although the aim of the members of the SVR is to produce their reports unanimously, there have been different interpretations in the past. The result was not always clear recommendations. So was Peter Bofinger repeated on minority votes, which are printed in the annual report had to.

In response to the SVR's recommendation in its 2013/2014 annual report that an adjustment of the income tax rate was “overdue” because of the cold progression , three economists wrote in the journal Wirtschaftsdienst that this was based on dubious arguments. In particular, the choice of the year 2006 as the reference year with an allegedly medium burden is "more than strange", because this was "quite obviously" a year with a low burden. The SVR must also have been aware of this, as it had determined it itself in its 2011 report, in which it had not yet seen any acute need for action due to the cold progression. The Handelsblatt interpreted this as an indirect assumption of manipulation intent and reported further inconsistencies.

Comparable bodies

The French Council for Economic Analysis and the US Council of Economic Advisers perform similar functions . The Canadian Economic Council was dissolved in 1992.

The Landesökonomiekollegium was founded in Prussia in 1842.

See also

literature

  • Wolfgang Franz: Economic Policy Advice: Reminiscences and Reflection . In: Perspektiven der Wirtschaftsppolitik , Vol. 1, 2000, pp. 53–71.
  • Hans-Jürgen Krupp: Independent advice and political responsibility, considerations on the conception of the German Expert Council . In: B. Gahlen u. a. (Ed.): Economic growth, structural change and dynamic competition, Berlin 1989, pp. 421–428
  • Expert Council for the Assessment of Macroeconomic Development , Forty Years of the Expert Council 1963–2003 . Wiesbaden 2003, ISBN 3-8246-0704-2
  • Ansgar Strätling: Expert advice in transition . Marburg 2001, ISBN 3-89518-339-3
  • Ansgar Strätling: The expert council for assessing the overall economic development . In: S. Falk u. A. (Ed.): Handbuch Politikberatung . Wiesbaden 2006, pp. 353-362, ISBN 3-531-14250-X
  • Ulrich van Suntum: In the wake of fame: 30 years of expert advice . In: Economic correspondence of the Alfred Weber Foundation , vol. 32, 1993, no.10
  • Afonso, Alexandre Flickenschild, Michael: Networks of economic policy expertise in Germany and the United States in the wake of the Great Recession . In: Journal of European Public Policy . 2018. doi : 10.1080 / 13501763.2018.1518992 .

Web links

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ Law on the formation of a council of experts to assess macroeconomic development.
  2. ↑ Alexander Nützenadel : Hour of the Economists. Science, politics and expert culture in the Federal Republic 1949–1974, in: Critical studies on historical science 166. Ed. By Helmut Berding, Jürgen Kocka, Paul Nolte, Hans-Peter Ullmann and Hans-Ulrich Wehler, Göttingen 2005, p. 152f.
  3. ^ Gabriele Metzler: Conceptions of political action from Adenauer to Brandt. Political planning in a pluralistic society . Paderborn 2005, p. 177.
  4. ↑ Alexander Nützenadel: Hour of the Economists. Science, politics and expert culture in the Federal Republic 1949–1974 . In: Helmut Berding, Jürgen Kocka, Paul Nolte, Hans-Peter Ullmann, Hans-Ulrich Wehler (Eds.): Critical Studies on History , 166, Göttingen 2005, p. 153.
  5. ^ A b c Hans Tietmeyer : The establishment of the council of experts from the point of view of economic policy . In: Expert Council for the Assessment of Overall Economic Development: Forty Years of the Expert Council: 1963–2003 . Wiesbaden 2003, p. 23.
  6. ↑ a b Alexander Nützenadel: Hour of Economists. Science, politics and expert culture in the Federal Republic 1949–1974 . In: Helmut Berding, Jürgen Kocka, Paul Nolte, Hans-Peter Ullmann, Hans-Ulrich Wehler (Eds.): Critical Studies on History , 166, Göttingen 2005, p. 154.
  7. ^ Hans Tietmeyer : The establishment of the expert council from the point of view of economic policy . In: Expert Council for the Assessment of Overall Economic Development: Forty Years of the Expert Council: 1963–2003 . Wiesbaden 2003, p. 24 f.
  8. ↑ Olaf Storbeck: The “Council” is in a reform process. Wiser again, narrower again . In: Handelsblatt , November 7, 2005; accessed on March 28, 2016.
  9. ^ Hans Tietmeyer : The German council of experts and its influence on economic, financial and currency policy . In: Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung , 1/2011, p. 38.
  10. ↑ Peter Weingart , Justus Lentsch: Knowledge - Advising - Deciding. Form and function of scientific policy advice in Germany . Edited by the Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences, Weilerswist 2008, p. 99.
  11. ↑ Interview with Beatrice Weder di Mauro : Global Markets. "Otherwise there is inbreeding" . In: Die Zeit , No. 6/2008, p. 27.
  12. ↑ Lars P. Feld elected as the new chairman of the Expert Council
  13. ↑ a b Norbert Häring : The disenchantment of the wise . In: Handelsblatt , December 1, 2014, p. 13.
  14. ↑ Tobias Kröll and Jochen Fehling: Petition 99084: Composition of the scientific advisory boards of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy / the Federal Ministry of Finance as well as the Advisory Council on the assessment of macroeconomic development from 11.09.2019. In: Petitions to the German Bundestag. German Bundestag, November 9, 2019, accessed April 4, 2020 .
  15. ↑ Lisa Nienhaus: The man for the bulging state . In: Die Zeit , March 28, 2019
  16. ^ Katja Rietzler, Dieter Teichmann, Achim Truger : Dismantling the cold progression: sober analysis required . In: Wirtschaftsdienst , 12/2014, pp. 864–871. ( wirtschaftsdienst.eu )
  17. ↑ Norbert Häring: Economy in the cross fire . In: Handelsblatt , December 1, 2014, p. 1. ( advance information online )
  18. ↑ Michael Flickenschild, Alexandre Afonso: Networks of economic policy expertise in Germany and the United States in the wake of the Great Recession . In: Journal of European Public Policy . September 14, 2018, ISSN  1350-1763 , p. 1–20 , doi : 10.1080 / 13501763.2018.1518992 ( tandfonline.com [accessed September 23, 2018]).