Fragile States Index

Failed states based on the Fragile States Index 2018
Legend: alarm warning stable sustainable stable no information

The Fragile States Index (FSI) , formerly the Failed States Index , is an annual ranking that has been published by the US Think Tank Fund for Peace in the American journal Foreign Policy since 2005 . The report includes all sovereign states that are members of the United Nations and that sufficient data are available to analyze them. The index is intended to express the degree of functioning of states and the probability of a state collapse in a ranking. It has since received a lot of attention in the media and in the public eye.

The ranking is based on the sum of the ratings for twelve indicators. Each indicator is rated on a scale from 0 to 10, with 0 being the lowest (most stable) and 10 being the highest (least stable) intensity, creating a scale from 0 to 120. The higher the index value, the less stable a country is assessed. The ratings are obtained through a process that includes content analysis, quantitative data and qualitative review. Quantitative data from sources such as the United Nations (UN), the World Health Organization (WHO), the CIA World Factbook , Transparency International , the World Bank and Freedom House are included in the index. Scores for subjective criteria are created through document analysis based on algorithms.

methodology

The following 12 criteria are included in the index:

cohesion

Security apparatus (international conflicts, arms deliveries, popular uprisings, bombings, deaths in conflicts, military coups, rebel activities)
Fractionalized elites (power struggles, election fraud, political competition)
Conflict between groups (discrimination, ethnic conflicts, religious conflicts, state violence)

Economically

Economic decline and poverty ( national debt , unemployment , youth unemployment , trade deficit , GDP per capita , economic growth , inflation )
Unequal economic development ( Gini coefficient / income and wealth distribution , urban-rural differences, slums )
Human flight and brain drain (migration / emigration)

Politically

State legitimacy ( corruption , political participation, elections, undeclared work , drug trafficking , protests and demonstrations)
Public service (police control / surveillance, crime , literacy , level of education, access to drinking water and sanitary facilities, infrastructure , quality of health care , telecommunications , access to the Internet, security of power supply)
Human rights and the rule of law ( freedom of the press , civil liberties, human trafficking , political prisoners, imprisonment, religious persecution, torture , executions)

Social

Demographic pressures ( natural disasters , epidemics and diseases , environmental pollution , food shortages, malnutrition , water shortages, population growth , youth surplus, death rate )
Number of refugees and internally displaced persons (flight and displacement , refugee camps )
External interventions (foreign aid, presence of peacekeeping forces and UN missions , military interventions, sanctions, creditworthiness )

Classifications

The Fragile States Index divides states into four different categories (alarm, warning, stable, sustainable), which in turn are divided into sub-categories. The classification is based on the index value achieved by a country.

Categories	FSI index value	Subcategories (2019)
alarm	90.0-120.0	very big alarm: 110+ major alarm: 100-109.9 Alarm: 90-99.9
warning	60.0-89.9	big warning: 80-89.9 increased warning: 70-79.9 Warning: 60-69.9
Stable	30.0-59.9	Stable: 50-59.9 More stable: 40-49.9 very stable: 30-39.9
Sustainable	0.0-29.9	Sustainable: 20–29.9 very sustainable: 0–19.9

Ranking of 2019

Countries according to the Fragile States Index 2019 based on data from 2018. The higher a country's ranking, the less stable it is.

rank	country	Index value	Change to 2018
very big alarm
1	Yemen Yemen	113.5	0.8
2	Somalia Somalia	112.3	0.9
3	South Sudan South Sudan	112.2	1.2
4th	Syria Syria	112.5	0.1
5	Congo Democratic Republic Democratic Republic of Congo	110.2	0.5
big alarm
6th	Central African Republic Central African Republic	108.9	2.2
7th	Chad Chad	108.5	0.2
8th	Sudan Sudan	108.0	0.7
9	Afghanistan Afghanistan	105.0	1.6
alarm
10	Zimbabwe Zimbabwe	99.5	2.8
11	Guinea-a Guinea	99.4	2.2
12	Haiti Haiti	99.3	2.7
13	Iraq Iraq	99.1	3.1
14th	Nigeria Nigeria	98.5	1.4
15th	Burundi Burundi	98.2	0.8
16	Cameroon Cameroon	97.0	1.7
17th	Eritrea Eritrea	96.4	0.8
18th	Niger Niger	96.2	0.0
19th	Guinea-Bissau Guinea-Bissau	95.5	2.6
20th	Uganda Uganda	95.3	0.2
21st	Mali Mali	94.5	1.0
22nd	Myanmar Myanmar	94.3	1.8
23	Ethiopia Ethiopia	94.2	5.4
23	Pakistan Pakistan	94.2	2.1
25th	Kenya Kenya	93.5	3.8
26th	Korea North North Korea	92.7	0.8
27	Congo Republic Republic of the Congo	92.5	0.6
28	Libya Libya	92.2	2.4
29	Ivory Coast Ivory Coast	92.1	2.5
30th	Liberia Liberia	90.2	2.7
31	Mauritania Mauritania	90.1	2.1
big warning
32	Venezuela Venezuela	89.3	3.1
33	Mozambique Mozambique	88.7	0.0
34	Egypt Egypt	88.4	0.3
35	Angola Angola	87.8	1.6
36	Bangladesh Bangladesh	87.7	2.6
37	Rwanda Rwanda	87.5	1.8
38	Togo Togo	87.4	2.3
39	Sierra Leone Sierra Leone	86.8	2.3
40	Zambia Zambia	85.7	1.5
41	East Timor East Timor	85.5	2.8
42	Swaziland Swaziland	85.3	2.2
43	Djibouti Djibouti	85.1	2.0
44	Lebanon Lebanon	85.0	1.8
45	Nepal Nepal	84.7	3.2
46	Sri Lanka Sri Lanka	84.0	0.9
47	Burkina Faso Burkina Faso	83.9	2.6
47	Gambia Gambia	83.9	3.2
49	Malawi Malawi	83.3	2.2
50	Papua New Guinea Papua New Guinea	83.1	1.7
50	Philippines Philippines	83.1	2.4
52	Iran Iran	83.0	1.3
53	Equatorial Guinea Equatorial Guinea	82.6	0.8
54	Cambodia Cambodia	82.5	1.5
55	Solomon Islands Solomon Islands	81.9	1.2
56	Comoros Comoros	81.7	0.9
57	Guatemala Guatemala	81.4	0.4
58	Madagascar Madagascar	80.9	2.7
59	Turkey Turkey	80.3	1.9
60	Tanzania Tanzania	80.1	0.8
increased warning
61	Lesotho Lesotho	79.7	0.4
62	Laos Laos	78.7	2.0
63	Nicaragua Nicaragua	78.1	2.8
64	Honduras Honduras	77.8	0.5
65	Tajikistan Tajikistan	77.7	1.8
66	Senegal Senegal	77.2	2.4
67	Israel Israel and West BankPalastina autonomous areas	76.5	2.0
68	Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan	76.2	2.4
69	Jordan Jordan	75.9	0.9
70	Colombia Colombia	75.7	0.9
70	Uzbekistan Uzbekistan	75.7	3.4
72	Algeria Algeria	75.4	0.9
73	Russia Russia	74.7	2.5
74	India India	74.4	1.9
75	Benin Benin	73.6	2.1
76	Azerbaijan Azerbaijan	73.2	1.4
77	Thailand Thailand	73.1	1.9
78	Micronesia, Federated States Micronesia	73.0	1.4
78	Morocco Morocco	73.0	1.0
80	Bolivia Bolivia	72.9	2.3
81	Bhutan Bhutan	72.0	2.3
81	Georgia Georgia	72.0	2.0
83	Brazil Brazil	71.8	3.1
84	Fiji Fiji	71.7	2.8
85	Turkmenistan Turkmenistan	71.4	1.2
86	Bosnia and Herzegovina Bosnia and Herzegovina	71.3	0.0
87	Ecuador Ecuador	71.2	3.1
88	China People's Republic People's Republic of China	71.1	1.3
88	Sao Tome and Principe Sao Tome and Principe	71.1	1.0
88	South Africa South Africa	71.1	1.8
91	Ukraine Ukraine	71.0	1.6
92	Gabon Gabon	70.5	2.0
93	Indonesia Indonesia	70.4	1.9
93	Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia	70.4	0.2
95	Tunisia Tunisia	70.1	2.0
warning
96	El Salvador El Salvador	69.8	0.4
96	Maldives Maldives	69.8	0.6
98	Mexico Mexico	69.7	0.8
99	Belarus Belarus	68.2	2.3
99	Guyana Guyana	68.2	1.2
99	Peru Peru	68.2	1.9
102	Serbia Serbia	68.0	0.1
103	Moldova Republic Moldova	67.1	2.4
104	Paraguay Paraguay	67.0	2.8
105	Armenia Armenia	66.7	2.8
106	Cape Verde Cape Verde	66.6	1.4
107	Namibia Namibia	66.4	2.4
108	Dominican Republic Dominican Republic	66.2	3.0
109	Vietnam Vietnam	66.1	2.3
110	Ghana Ghana	65.9	2.2
111	North Macedonia North Macedonia	64.9	0.2
112	Samoa Samoa	64.2	1.3
113	Bahrain Bahrain	63.8	0.6
114	Belize Belize	62.5	1.2
115	Suriname Suriname	61.9	2.1
116	Kazakhstan Kazakhstan	61.6	1.8
117	Jamaica Jamaica	61.2	1.9
118	Cuba Cuba	60.8	2.1
119	Malaysia Malaysia	60.5	3.0
Stable
120	Botswana Botswana	59.5	2.5
121	Albania Albania	58.9	1.2
122	Cyprus Republic Cyprus	57.8	2.5
123	Grenada Grenada	57.6	2.3
124	Brunei Brunei	57.5	2.3
125	Montenegro Montenegro	55.3	0.0
126	Seychelles Seychelles	55.2	1.6
127	Antigua and Barbuda Antigua and Barbuda	54.4	1.2
128	Mongolia Mongolia	54.1	0.8
129	Greece Greece	53.9	1.4
130	Kuwait Kuwait	53.2	2.6
131	Trinidad and Tobago Trinidad and Tobago	53.0	1.6
132	Bulgaria Bulgaria	50.6	1.1
More stable
133	Oman Oman	50.0	2.6
134	Hungary Hungary	49.6	0.6
135	Bahamas Bahamas	48.8	0.2
136	Barbados Barbados	48.0	0.2
137	Romania Romania	47.8	1.6
138	Croatia Croatia	47.5	1.6
139	Panama Panama	47.0	2.5
140	Argentina Argentina	46.0	0.1
141	Qatar Qatar	45.4	2.7
142	Latvia Latvia	43.9	1.0
143	Italy Italy	43.8	0.0
144	Poland Poland	42.8	1.4
145	Costa Rica Costa Rica	42.0	1.2
146	Estonia Estonia	40.8	2.2
147	Spain Spain	40.7	0.7
148	Slovakia Slovakia	40.5	2.5
149	United Arab Emirates United Arab Emirates	40.1	2.7
very stable
150	Chile Chile	38.9	1.8
150	Mauritius Mauritius	38.9	1.6
152	Lithuania Lithuania	38.1	1.3
153	United States United States	38.0	0.3
154	Czech Republic Czech Republic	37.6	1.4
155	United Kingdom United Kingdom	36.7	2.5
156	Malta Malta	34.5	1.7
157	Japan Japan	34.3	0.2
158	Uruguay Uruguay	34.0	1.4
159	Korea South South Korea	33.7	2.0
160	France France	32.0	0.2
Sustainable
161	Belgium Belgium	28.6	1.1
162	Singapore Singapore	28.1	2.3
163	Slovenia Slovenia	28.0	2.3
164	Portugal Portugal	25.3	2.0
165	Austria Austria	25.0	1.2
166	Netherlands Netherlands	24.8	1.4
167	Germany Germany	24.7	1.1
168	Ireland Ireland	20.6	0.1
169	Luxembourg Luxembourg	20.4	0.4
170	Sweden Sweden	20.3	0.5
171	New Zealand New Zealand	20.1	0.8
very sustainable
172	Canada Canada	20.0	1.5
173	Iceland Iceland	19.8	0.5
174	Australia Australia	19.7	1.1
175	Denmark Denmark	19.5	0.3
176	Switzerland Switzerland	18.7	0.5
177	Norway Norway	18.0	0.3
178	Finland Finland	16.9	1.0

Long-term trends

Most improved

The following table shows the 20 countries that were able to improve their value the most between the index of 2009 and that of 2019.

rank	country	Index value (2019)	Change to 2009
1	Georgia Georgia	72.0	19.8
2	Cuba Cuba	60.8	19.8
3	Moldova Republic Moldova	67.1	18.0
4th	Uzbekistan Uzbekistan	75.7	17.1
5	Bhutan Bhutan	72.0	15.3
6th	Zimbabwe Zimbabwe	99.5	14.5
7th	Malta Malta	34.5	14.3
8th	Belarus Belarus	68.2	14.1
9	Trinidad and Tobago Trinidad and Tobago	53.0	13.7
10	Indonesia Indonesia	70.4	13.7
11	Romania Romania	47.8	13.5
12	Colombia Colombia	75.7	13.5
13	China People's Republic People's Republic of China	71.1	13.5
14th	Bolivia Bolivia	72.9	13.4
15th	Turkmenistan Turkmenistan	71.4	12.9
16	Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan	76.2	12.9
17th	Sri Lanka Sri Lanka	84.0	12.7
18th	Panama Panama	47.0	12.7
19th	Croatia Croatia	47.5	12.6
20th	Tajikistan Tajikistan	77.7	12.6

Most deteriorated

The following table shows the 20 countries that have deteriorated the most between the index from 2009 and 2019.

rank	country	Index value (2019)	Change to 2009
1	Libya Libya	92.2	22.8
2	Syria Syria	111.5	21.7
3	Mali Mali	94.1	15.8
4th	Yemen Yemen	113.5	15.4
5	Venezuela Venezuela	89.3	9.8
6th	Mozambique Mozambique	88.7	8.0
7th	Greece Greece	53.9	7.8
8th	Eritrea Eritrea	96.4	6.1
9	Gambia Gambia	83.9	4.9
10	Bahrain Bahrain	63.8	4.8
11	Djibouti Djibouti	85.1	4.5
12	United States United States	38.0	4.0
13	South Africa South Africa	71.1	3.7
14th	Central African Republic Central African Republic	108.9	3.5
15th	United Kingdom United Kingdom	36.7	3.1
16	Japan Japan	34.3	3.1
17th	Senegal Senegal	77.2	3.0
18th	Swaziland Swaziland	85.3	2.9
19th	Angola Angola	87.8	2.8
20th	Oman Oman	50.0	2.8

criticism

The years of controversy surrounding the terminology “failed state” in the name of the index contributed to a change in 2014 when the Failed States Index was renamed the Fragile States Index. Critics have argued that the term implied a false distinction between states that can be saved and those that cannot be restored.

Critics have also noted deficiencies in the FSI's measurement criteria and the lack of transparency in the analysis of the basic data. For example, indicators related to refugees and human flight have improved North Korea's score as emigration from the country has decreased. While this may indicate a stronger security apparatus in the state, it should not necessarily be seen as an improvement.

A 2012 Guardian article denounced the Index as a “useless political tool” that focused only on the symptoms of fragile states and ignored causes or possible cures. The National Interest complained that the index would encourage intervention or state building imposed from outside .

Individual evidence

↑ Methodology | Fragile States Index. Retrieved October 3, 2019 .
↑ Indicators | Fragile States Index. Retrieved October 3, 2019 .
↑ ^a ^b ^c Fragile States Index Annual Report 2019. Retrieved October 4, 2019 .
^ Fragile is the New Failure. In: Political Violence at a Glance. June 27, 2014, Retrieved October 4, 2019 (American English).
^ Claire Leigh: Failed States Index belongs in the policy dustbin . In: The Guardian . July 2, 2012, ISSN 0261-3077 ( theguardian.com [accessed October 4, 2019]).
^ Miles M. Evers: The Fatally Flawed Fragile States Index. July 15, 2014, accessed October 4, 2019 .

[1] Methodology | Fragile States Index. Retrieved October 3, 2019 .

[2] Indicators | Fragile States Index. Retrieved October 3, 2019 .

[:0-3] Fragile States Index Annual Report 2019. Retrieved October 4, 2019 .

[4] Fragile is the New Failure. In: Political Violence at a Glance. June 27, 2014, Retrieved October 4, 2019 (American English).

[5] Claire Leigh: Failed States Index belongs in the policy dustbin . In: The Guardian . July 2, 2012, ISSN 0261-3077 ( theguardian.com [accessed October 4, 2019]).

[6] Miles M. Evers: The Fatally Flawed Fragile States Index. July 15, 2014, accessed October 4, 2019 .