Parliamentary election in Estonia 2019

← 2015Parliamentary election in Estonia 2019

Result (in%)

 %

30th

20th

10

0

28.9

23.1

17.8

11.4

9.8

4.4

1.8

1.2

1.2

0.4

RE

K

EKRE

I.

SDE

E200

EER

EE

EVA

Otherwise.

Gains and losses

compared to 2015

 % p

 10

   8th

   6th

   4th

   2

   0

  -2

  -4

  -6

  -8th

+1.2

-1.7

+9.7

-2.3

-5.4

+4.4

+0.9

+1.2

-7.5

-2.3

RE

K

EKRE

I.

SDE

E200

EER

EE

EVA

Otherwise.

Distribution of seats

     

A total of 101 seats

• SDE : 10
• K : 26
• RE : 34
• I : 12
• EKRE : 19

The parliamentary elections in Estonia in 2019 took place on Sunday 3rd March.

These were the elections for the 14th legislative period of the Estonian Parliament ( Riigikogu ) since the first parliamentary election in the Republic of Estonia in November 1920.

Electoral system

Election process

The one-chamber parliament ( Estonian Riigikogu ; literally: "State Assembly") is elected for a period of four years. According to the Estonian constitution, the parliament has 101 members.

All Estonian citizens who are at least 18 years old on election day are entitled to vote. Any Estonian citizen can be elected who is at least 21 years old on the last day of the registration deadline for candidates.

The election takes place according to proportional representation . The five percent hurdle applies .

Constituencies

In order to ensure a regional diversification of the MPs, the country is divided into twelve multi-person constituencies ( valimisringkonnad ), in which between 5 and 15 MPs were elected:

View of the main portal of the Estonian Parliament in Tallinn

#	Constituency	Seats	map
1	Haabersti , Põhja-Tallinn and Kristiine in Tallinn	10
2	Kesklinn , Lasnamäe and Pirita in Tallinn	13
3	Mustamäe and Nõmme in Tallinn	8th
4th	Harju County (excluding Tallinn) and Rapla County	15th
5	Hiiumaa , Lääne and Saaremaa district	6th
6th	Lääne-Viru district	5
7th	Ida-Viru district	7th
8th	Järva County and Viljandi County	7th
9	Jõgeva County and Tartu County (excluding Tartu City)	7th
10	City of Tartu	8th
11	Võru County , Valga County and Põlva County	8th
12	Parnu County	7th

Internet voting

Voting was also possible via the Internet. From February 21 to 27, eligible voters could vote online. 247,232 Estonians took advantage of this opportunity and thus 28% of all eligible voters or 43.9% of those taking part in the election. The high number of voters via the Internet could be decisive for the election, since these voters “think differently than analogue voters” and tend to be more of a reform party, according to observers.

Starting position

The last parliamentary election took place on March 1, 2015. At that time, six parties made it into parliament: the liberal Estonian Reform Party (RE), the left-centrist Estonian Center Party (K), the Social Democrats (SDE), the conservative Fatherland Party (I), the conservative Estonian Free Party (EVA) and the national conservative Estonian Conservative People's Party (EKRE).

The three-party coalition made up of the Reform Party (RE), Social Democrats (SDE) and Fatherland Party (I) of Prime Minister Taavi Rõivas (RE), who has been in office since March 2014, broke up in November 2016. It was replaced by a coalition that same month Center Party (K), SDE and I under the new Prime Minister Jüri Ratas (K). The Free Party (EVA) and the Conservative People's Party (EKRE) remained in the opposition as newcomers to parliament. The reform party, which has had government responsibility since 1999, also found itself there at the end of 2016.

The Estonian Evangelical Lutheran Church (Eesti Evangeelne Luterlik Kirik, EELK) gave its members an election recommendation that the Center Party most closely reflected the positions of the EELK.

Survey

Predictions before the election

A relatively close battle was expected between the currently leading ruling party, the Center (K), and the opposition Reform Party (RE) for the position as the strongest party, which according to the opinion polls neither expect any significant losses or gains compared to the last election four years ago had to. The right-wing populist Conservative People's Party (EKRE), which was seen at a value of around 20%, should therefore increase significantly. This happened primarily at the expense of the Free Party (EVA), which after just under 9% in the 2015 election was only estimated at less than 2%. According to the opinion polls, the Social Democrats involved in government and the conservative Fatherland Party (I) had to reckon with - lighter - losses. In contrast, the Greens (EER) were forecast to make slight gains; a move into parliament seemed unlikely, however. The social-liberal party Estonia 200 (E200) took part in an election for the first time and was assessed differently by the election researchers, namely between 2 and 6%.

Last polls before the election

date	Survey institute	RE	K	SDE	I.	EVA	EKRE	EER	E200	Others	The party with the strongest vote has the lead	Government opposition
February 26-28, 2019	Cantar Emor	26.6	24.5	11.9	10.1	1.3	17.3	2.2	4.3	1.8	2.1	46.5 - 45.2
Jan 28 - Feb 28, 2019	Norstat	29.5	25.7	10.2	9.2	1	16.4	2.9	3.3	1.8	3.8	45.1 - 46.9
February 14-20, 2019	Cantar Emor	25.7	24.7	10.1	9.2	0.9	21.3	2	5.6	0.5	1	44 - 47.9
February 7-20, 2019	Turu-uuringute AS	24	28	11	10	2	17th	3	4th	1	4th	49 - 43
February 12-18, 2019	Fact Ariko	25th	22nd	11	11	2	18th	2	4th	4th	3	44-45
Jan 21 - Feb 17, 2019	Norstat	28.8	27.1	9	9.2	0.9	16.4	3	3.4	2.2	1.7	45.3 - 46.1
Jan 14 - Feb 11, 2019	Norstat	27.9	28.8	8.9	7.7	1	17th	2.8	3.8	2.1	0.9	45.4 - 45.9
February 4-7, 2019	Cantar Emor	24.5	26.5	11.5	8.6	0.7	18.9	2.2	6.4	0.7	2	46.6 - 44.1
Jan 7 - Feb 4, 2019	Norstat	27	28.7	9.1	7.4	0.7	17.7	2.7	3.7	3	1.7	45.2 - 45.4
1 Mar 2015	Election 2015	27.7	24.8	15.2	13.7	8.7	8.1	0.9	-	0.9	2.9	56.6 - 41.6

Course of survey values

Course of the polls up to the election

Election result

Party with the highest number of votes by constituency:

Estonian Reform Party

Estonian Center Party

Estonian People's Conservative Party

Composition of the chosen Riigikogu (colors as in the table)

Results of the parliamentary elections in Estonia 2019

Political party		be right			Seats
		number	%	+/-	number	+/-
	Estonian Reform Party (RE)	162,363	28.9	+1.2	34	+4
	Estonian Center Party (K)	129,618	23.1	−1.8	26th	−1
	Estonian Conservative People's Party (EKRE)	99,671	17.8	+9.7	19th	+12
	Fatherland (I)	64.219	11.4	−2.3	12	−2
	Social Democratic Party (SDE)	55.168	9.8	−5.4	10	−5
	Estonia 200 (E200)	24,447	4.4	New	-	-
	Green Estonia (EER)	10,226	1.8	+0.9	-	-
	Biodiversity Party (EE)	6,858	1.2	New	-	-
	Estonian Free Party (EVA)	6,460	1.2	−7.5	-	−8
	Estonian Left Party (EPP)	510	0.1	New	-	-
	Independent candidates	1,590	0.3	+0.1	-	-
total		563.107	100.0	-	101	-
Valid votes		561.131	99.3	± 0
Invalid votes		3,897	0.7	± 0
voter turnout		565.028	63.7	−0.5
Non-voters		322.391	36.3	+0.5
Eligible voters		887.419
Source: State Electoral Commission

Election analysis

In future, only five instead of the previous six parties will be represented in the Estonian parliament. The Estonian Free Party left parliament after only one term. In addition, the previous government coalition lost its majority as all previous coalition partners had to accept a loss of votes.

The liberal reform party remains the strongest group in parliament and was able to increase the number of its seats. After the last 30, this time it is represented by 34 MPs, although the absolute gains in votes were relatively small.

The second strongest party was again the previously ruling Center Party. However, the party had to accept a loss of votes , especially among its traditional electorate, the Russian-speaking population . T. did not vote anymore. In the Tallinn districts with a strong Russian-speaking population and in the Russian-dominated Ida-Viru district , the Center Party remained the strongest political force again this time.

The third strongest force was the Estonian Conservative People's Party, which more than doubled its number of votes. The party was able to win over voters primarily with its national, arch-conservative and populist positions and as a protest party (before the election most of the other parties had ruled out cooperation). She managed to get 19 seats in parliament.

The conservative Fatherland Party, which was co-governing up to now, had to accept slight losses. After one had to tremble about re-entry into parliament in the run-up to the election, one had in the last few months before the election z. B. with the rejection of the UN migration pact u. a. to get votes again in the national conservative camp. The re-entry into parliament was finally achieved with 12 seats.

The second previous coalition partner, the Social Democrats, had to accept significant losses in the electorate and with 10 seats became the smallest force still represented in parliament. The party itself justified the losses primarily through competition from the newly founded Estonia 200 party, which in turn narrowly missed entry into parliament.

Government formation

After the Reform Party won most of the seats, it took the lead in forming a new government. Its chairman Kaja Kallas said that she would seek a three-party coalition with the Fatherland Party and the Social Democratic Party or a two-party coalition with the Center Party. On March 6, the Reform Party announced that it would start talks with the Center Party. Two days later, the Center Party rejected the offer due to disagreements on tax issues and allegations that the reform party's demands were too ultimate. After the Center Party's rejection, the Reform Party invited the Social Democrats and the Fatherland Party to negotiations, despite saying two days earlier that the poor relationship between the parties in the previous government would not help a future coalition.

On March 11, the Vice-Chairman of the Center Party, Jaanus Karilaid, announced that coalition negotiations would begin with the Fatherland Party and the right-wing populist Conservative People's Party (EKRE). The decision aroused criticism in particular from members of the Russian-speaking minority, among whom the Center Party is traditionally popular. As a consequence, the Center MP Raimond Kaljulaid resigned from his party on April 5, 2019 and announced that he would be an independent member of parliament. Before the election, all established parties had ruled out a coalition with the EKRE.

After she was commissioned by President Kersti Kaljulaid to form a government, Kallas presented a program for a minority government with the Social Democrats, but failed on April 15 before parliament. This cleared the way for the center chairman, Ratas. He put his coalition government with the Fatherland Party and EKRE to a vote on April 17th and was confirmed in office with 55 votes.

Web links

• State Electoral Commission
• Electoral Law (English translation)

Individual evidence

1. ↑ ^{a b} Riigikogu valimised 2019 , on rk2019.valimised.ee
2. ↑ valimised.ee
3. ↑ Estonia votes electronically , on eurotopics.net
4. ↑ taz online from March 2, 2019: Good forecasts for right-wing extremists
5. ↑ tt.com: Estonia: Center Party plans rival coalition talks
6. ↑ bloomberg.com: Shock Move Gives Populists a Chance at Government in Estonia
7. ^ Raimond Kaljulaid quits Center Party. ERR , April 5, 2019, accessed April 14, 2019. (English)
8. ↑ luzernerzeitung.ch: Racist party in Estonia is likely to double its votes on Sunday
9. ^ Reform party fails to form a government in Estonia. Der Standard , April 15, 2019, accessed the day after.
10. ^ Estonia's president instructs centrists Ratas to form a government. Der Standard, April 16, 2019, accessed the same day.
11. ↑ Green light for new right-wing coalition in Estonia. Der Standard, April 17, 2019, accessed on the same day.