2020 United States Presidential Election / State Polls

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This article presents state-wide polls and predictions for the 2020 US presidential election .

Survey results

• Status of the last state-wide survey (status: November 18, 2019)
• 

  Trump (170 electors) vs. Biden (357 electors), tie for states with 11 electors

• 

  Trump (212 electors) vs. Sanders (298 electors), tie for states with 28 electors

• 

  Trump (223 electors) vs. Warren (296 electors), tie for states with 29 electors

based on the survey database of FiveThirtyEight and other surveys included in this article

Democrat lead> 8%

Democrat lead> 4–8%

Democrat lead ≤4%

a draw

Trump lead ≤4%

Trump lead> 4–8%

Trump lead> 8%

Won by Clinton in 2016, so far no poll for such a scenario in 2020

Won by Trump in 2016, so far no poll for such a scenario in 2020

Surveys in the United States are methodologically conducted differently. Some polling organizations ask only full age ( adults ) from some only registered voters ( registered voters ) and some registered voters likely voting intentions ( likely voters ). Many survey institutes also give out different data for each group. Polls among likely voters are considered to be the most precise in opinion polls.
In the following tabular overviews - should a survey produce different results for the different groups of voters - the preferred option is given for the group of likely voters ( LV ), otherwise that for the group of registered voters ( RV ) and if this does not exist, the the adults ( A ).
When specifying a candidate's lead in the 2016 election results and surveys, rounding errors may occur.

Alabama

• 9 electors
• 2016: Trump (R) - 62.1%, Clinton (D) - 34.4%; R + 27.7

No surveys have yet been conducted in this state.

Alaska

• 3 electors
• 2016: Trump (R) - 51.3%, Clinton (D) - 36.6%; R + 14.7

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
Zogby Analytics	08/09/2019	321 LV	45%	40%	-	-	-	-	R + 5
			45%	-	38%	-	-	-	R + 7
			48%	-	-	32%	-	-	R + 16
			45%	-	-	-	Buttigieg (D) - 31%	-	R + 14
			48%	-	-	-	Harris (D) - 30%	-	R + 18

Arizona

• 11 electors
• 2016: Trump (R) - 48.7%, Clinton (D) - 45.1%; R + 3.6

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
Emerson College	October 28, 2019	901 RV	50%	50%	-	-	-	-	D / R ± 0
			51%	-	49%	-	-	-	R + 2
			50%	-	-	50%	-	-	D / R ± 0
Siena College	10/26/2019	652 LV	46%	49%	-	-	-	-	D + 2
			49%	-	45%	-	-	-	R + 4
			47%	-	-	46%	-	-	D / R ± 0
Bendixen & Amandi	09/12/2019	520 RV	43%	42%	-	-	-	-	R + 1
			45%	-	38%	-	-	-	R + 7
			42%	-	-	42%	-	-	D / R ± 0
			42%	-	-	-	Harris (D) - 38%	-	R + 4
Fabrizio Ward LLC	July 31, 2019	600 LV	45%	50%	-	-	-	-	D + 5

Arkansas

• 6 electors
• 2016: Trump (R) - 60.6%, Clinton (D) - 33.7%; R + 27.1

No surveys have yet been conducted in this state.

Colorado

• 9 electors
• 2016: Clinton (D) - 48.2%, Trump (R) - 43.3%; D + 4.9

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
Emerson College	August 19, 2019	1,000 RV	45%	55%	-	-	-	-	D + 10
			45%	-	55%	-	-	-	D + 10
			47%	-	-	54%	-	-	D + 7
			45%	-	-	-	Buttigieg (D) - 55%	-	D + 9
			49%	-	-	-	Harris (D) - 52%	-	D + 3
Fabrizio Ward LLC	July 31, 2019	600 LV	42%	51%	-	-	-	-	D + 9

Connecticut

• 7 electors
• 2016: Clinton (D) - 54.6%, Trump (R) - 40.9%; D + 14.5

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
Sacred Heart University	October 02, 2019	1,000 A	33%	52%	-	-	-	-	D + 19
			35%	-	51%	-	-	-	D + 16
			35%	-	-	49%	-	-	D + 14
			34%	-	-	-	Buttigieg (D) - 46%	-	D + 12
			34%	-	-	-	Harris (D) - 47%	-	D + 13

Delaware

• 3 electors
• 2016: Clinton (D) - 53.1%, Trump (R) - 41.7%; D + 11.4

No surveys have yet been conducted in this state.

District of Columbia

• 3 electors
• 2016: Clinton (D) - 90.5%, Trump (R) - 4.1%; D + 86.4

To date, no surveys have been conducted in the District of Columbia.

Florida

• 29 electors
• 2016: Trump (R) - 49.0%, Clinton (D) - 47.8%; R + 1.3

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
Florida Atlantic University	10/26/2019	650 LV	44%	46%	-	-	-	-	D + 2
			45%	-	44%	-	-	-	R + 1
			46%	-	-	42%	-	-	R + 4
Florida Atlantic University	09/15/2019	934 RV	51%	50%	-	-	-	-	R + 1
			51%	-	50%	-	-	-	R + 1
			50%	-	-	50%	-	-	D / R ± 0
			52%	-	-	-	Harris (D) - 48%	-	R + 4
St. Pete Polls	June 16, 2019	3.095 LV	47%	47%	-	-	-	-	D + 1
Florida Atlantic University	May 19, 2019	1,007 RV	50%	50%	-	-	-	-	D / R ± 0
			51%	-	49%	-	-	-	R + 3
			52%	-	-	48%	-	-	R + 4
			52%	-	-	-	Buttigieg (D) - 48%	-	R + 3
			53%	-	-	-	Harris (D) - 47%	-	R + 5
WPA intelligence	04/30/2019	200 LV	48%	44%	-	-	-	-	R + 4
Zogby Analytics	08/23/2017	828 LV	39%	-	-	48%	-	-	D + 9

Georgia

• 16 electors
• 2016: Trump (R) - 50.8%, Clinton (D) - 45.6%; R + 5.1

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
University of Georgia	11/08/2019	1,028 RV	43%	51%	-	-	-	-	D + 8
			44%	-	48%	-	-	-	D + 4
			44%	-	-	47%	-	-	D + 3
			43%	-	-	-	Buttigieg (D) - 46%	-	D + 3
			44%	-	-	-	Harris (D) - 45%	-	D + 1
Zogby Analytics	10/30/2019	550 LV	44%	46%	-	-	-	-	D + 2
			43%	-	48%	-	-	-	D + 5
			44%	-	-	42%	-	-	R + 2
			45%	-	-	-	Buttigieg (D) - 38%	-	R + 7
			44%	-	-	-	Harris (D) - 42%	-	R + 2

Hawaii

• 4 electors
• 2016: Clinton (D) - 62.2%, Trump (R) - 30.0%; D + 32.2

No surveys have yet been conducted in this state.

Idaho

• 4 electors
• 2016: Trump (R) - 59.3%, Clinton (D) - 27.5%; R + 31.8

No surveys have yet been conducted in this state.

Illinois

• 20 electors
• 2016: Clinton (D) - 55.8%, Trump (R) - 38.8%; D + 17.1

No surveys have yet been conducted in this state.

Indiana

• 11 electors
• 2016: Trump (R) - 56.8%, Clinton (D) - 37.9%; R + 19.2

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
Zogby Analytics	08/23/2017	603 LV	45%	-	-	39%	-	-	R + 6

Iowa

• 6 electors
• Trump (R) - 51.2%, Clinton (D) - 41.7%; R + 9.4

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
Siena College	10/30/2019	1,435 RV	45%	44%	-	-	-	-	R + 1
			47%	-	43%	-	-	-	R + 3
			47%	-	-	40%	-	-	R + 7
			45%	-	-	-	Buttigieg (D) - 41%	-	R + 4
Emerson College	October 16, 2019	888 RV	51%	49%	-	-	-	-	R + 1
			49%	-	51%	-	-	-	D + 2
			49%	-	-	51%	-	-	R + 2
WPA intelligence	04/30/2019	200 LV	49%	44%	-	-	-	-	R + 5

California

• 55 electors
• 2016: Clinton (D) - 61.7%, Trump (R) - 31.6%; D + 30.1

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
Emerson College	16.09.2019	830 RV	36%	64%	-	-	-	-	D + 28
			38%	-	63%	-	-	-	D + 25
			39%	-	-	61%	-	-	D + 22
			39%	-	-	-	Harris (D) - 61%	-	D + 22

Kansas

• 6 electors
• 2016: Trump (R) - 56.2%, Clinton (D) - 35.8%; R + 20.4

No surveys have yet been conducted in this state.

Kentucky

• 8 electors
• 2016: Trump (R) - 62.5%, Clinton (D) - 32.7%; R + 29.8

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
Fabrizio Ward LLC	July 31, 2019	600 LV	53%	41%	-	-	-	-	R + 12
Gravis Marketing	06/12/2019	741 LV	57%	37%	-	-	-	-	R + 20
			57%	-	35%	-	-	-	R + 22
			60%	-	-	28%	-	-	R + 32
			60%	-	-	-	Buttigieg (D) - 28%	-	R + 32
Zogby Analytics	08/23/2017	402 LV	47%	-	-	41%	-	-	R + 6

Louisiana

• 8 electors
• 2016: Trump (R) - 58.1%, Clinton (D) - 38.5%; R + 19.6

No surveys have yet been conducted in this state.

Maine

• 4 electors (2 statewide, 2 in congressional districts)
• 2016: Clinton (D) - 47.8%, Trump (R) - 44.9%; D + 3.0
  • Congressional District 1: Clinton (D) - 54.0%, Trump (R) - 39.2%; D + 14.8
  • Congressional District 2: Trump (R) - 51.3%, Clinton (D) - 41.0%; R + 10.3

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
Public Policy Polling	October 13, 2019	939 RV	42%	54%	-	-	-	-	D + 12
			43%	-	53%	-	-	-	D + 10
			43%	-	-	53%	-	-	D + 10
			43%	-	-	-	Buttigieg (D) - 52%	-	D + 9
			44%	-	-	-	Harris (D) - 50%	-	D + 6
Fabrizio Ward LLC	July 31, 2019	600 LV	44%	50%	-	-	-	-	D + 6
Gravis Marketing	06/24/2019	767 RV	46%	54%	-	-	-	-	D + 8
			47%	-	53%	-	-	-	D + 6
			48%	-	-	52%	-	-	D + 2
			49%	-	-	-	Buttigieg (D) - 51%	-	D + 2
			48%	-	-	-	Harris (D) - 52%	-	D + 4

1. Congressional electoral district

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
Public Policy Polling	October 13, 2019	498 RV	38%	58%	-	-	-	-	D + 20
			39%	-	57%	-	-	-	D + 18
			39%	-	-	57%	-	-	D + 18
			38%	-	-	-	Buttigieg (D) - 58%	-	D + 20
			39%	-	-	-	Harris (D) - 57%	-	D + 18

2. Congressional constituency

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
Public Policy Polling	October 13, 2019	441 RV	46%	49%	-	-	-	-	D + 3
			47%	-	49%	-	-	-	D + 2
			48%	-	-	47%	-	-	R + 1
			49%	-	-	-	Buttigieg (D) - 44%	-	R + 5
			49%	-	-	-	Harris (D) - 43%	-	R + 6

Maryland

• 10 electors
• 2016: Clinton (D) - 60.3%, Trump (R) - 33.9%; D + 26.4

No surveys have yet been conducted in this state.

Massachusetts

• 11 electors
• 2016: Clinton (D) - 60.0%, Trump (R) - 32.8%; D + 27.2

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
Emerson College	04/07/2019	761 RV	31%	69%	-	-	-	-	D + 38
			36%	-	64%	-	-	-	D + 28
			37%	-	-	63%	-	-	D + 26

Michigan

• 16 electors
• 2016: Trump (R) - 47.5%, Clinton (D) - 47.3%; R + 0.2

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
Emerson College	11/02/2019	1,051 RV	44%	56%	-	-	-	-	D + 12
			43%	-	57%	-	-	-	D + 14
			46%	-	-	54%	-	-	D + 8
Siena College	10/25/2019	501 LV	44%	45%	-	-	-	-	D + 1
			42%	-	46%	-	-	-	D + 3
			45%	-	-	40%	-	-	R + 4
Target Insurance	09/26/2019	804 LV	35%	54%	-	-	-	-	D + 19
Firehouse Strategies	07.09.2019	529 LV	41%	42%	-	-	-	-	D + 1
			43%	-	40%	-	-	-	R + 3
			42%	-	-	41%	-	-	R + 1
Epic MRA	06/12/2019	600 LV	41%	52%	-	-	-	-	D + 11
WPA intelligence	04/30/2019	200 LV	42%	45%	-	-	-	-	D + 3
Tulchin Research	04/18/2019	400 LV	41%	-	52%	-	-	-	D + 11
Firehouse Strategies	03/21/2019	530 LV	46%	45%	-	-	-	-	R + 1
			46%	-	45%	-	-	-	R + 1
			48%	-	-	-	O'Rourke - 39%	-	R + 9
Zogby Analytics	08/23/2017	803 LV	35%	-	-	51%	-	-	D + 16

Minnesota

• 10 electors
• 2016: Clinton (D) - 46.4%, Trump (R) - 44.9%; D + 1.5

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
The Star Tribune	October 16, 2019	800 RV	38%	50%	-	-	-	-	D + 12
			40%	-	49%	-	-	-	D + 9
			40%	-	-	51%	-	-	D + 11
			38%	-	-	-	Klobuchar (D) - 55%	-	D + 17
DFM Research	03.03.2019	550 A	35%	-	-	-	Klobuchar (D) - 52%	Schultz ( I ) - 7%	D + 17

Mississippi

• 6 electors
• 2016: Trump (R) - 57.9%, Clinton (D) - 40.1%; R + 17.8

No surveys have yet been conducted in this state.

Missouri

• 10 electors
• 2016: Trump (R) - 56.8%, Clinton (D) - 38.1%; R + 18.6

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
Remington Research	19.09.2019	1.046 LV	53%	42%	-	-	-	-	R + 11
			54%	-	37%	-	-	-	R + 17
			54%	-	-	40%	-	-	R + 14
Remington Research	04/11/2019	955 LV	51%	43%	-	-	-	-	R + 8
			51%	-	39%	-	-	-	R + 12
			52%	-	-	-	Harris (D) - 36%	-	R + 16
			51%	-	-	-	O'Rourke (D) - 38%	-	R + 13
Zogby Analytics	08/23/2017	604 LV	40%	-	-	46%	-	-	D + 6

Montana

• 3 electors
• Trump (R) - 56.2%, Clinton (D) - 35.8%; R + 20.4

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
University of Montana	03/10/2019	303 RV	54%	47%	-	-	-	-	R + 7
			54%	-	46%	-	-	-	R + 8
			54%	-	-	46%	-	-	R + 9
			48%	-	-	-	Bullock (D) - 52%	-	D + 4
			55%	-	-	-	Harris (D) - 45%	-	R + 10
Zogby Analytics	08/23/2017	403 LV	45%	-	-	39%	-	-	R + 6

Nebraska

• 5 electors (2 statewide, 3 in congressional districts)
• 2016: Trump (R) - 58.8%, Clinton (D) - 33.7%; R + 25.1
  • Congressional District 1: Trump (R) - 56.2%, Clinton (D) - 35.5%; R + 20.7
  • Congressional District 2: Trump (R) - 47.2%, Clinton (D) - 44.9%; R + 2.3
  • Congressional District 1: Trump (R) - 73.9%, Clinton (D) - 19.7%; R + 54.2

To date, polls have not been conducted at the state or congressional district level.

Nevada

• 6 electors
• 2016: Clinton (D) - 47.9%, Trump (R) - 45.5%; D + 2.4

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
Fox News	11/13/2019	1,506 RV	40%	47%	-	-	-	-	D + 7
			40%	-	47%	-	-	-	D + 7
			44%	-	-	41%	-	-	D + 3
			41%	-	-	-	Buttigieg (D) - 41%	-	D / R ± 0
Emerson College	03/11/2019	1,089 RV	51%	49%	-	-	-	-	R + 1
			50%	-	50%	-	-	-	D / R ± 0
			51%	-	-	49%	-	-	R + 2
Gravis Marketing	08/16/2019	926 RV	43%	49%	-	-	-	-	D + 6
			44%	-	47%	-	-	-	D + 3
			47%	-	-	46%	-	-	R + 1
			46%	-	-	-	Booker (D) - 44%	-	R + 2
			46%	-	-	-	Buttigieg (D) - 42%	-	R + 4
			45%	-	-	-	Harris (D) - 45%	-	D / R ± 0
			48%	-	-	-	Williamson (D) - 40%	-	R + 8
Emerson College	03/30/2019	719 RV	48%	52%	-	-	-	-	D + 4
			51%	-	49%	-	-	-	R + 2
			54%	-	-	46%	-	-	R + 8
			52%	-	-	-	Buttigieg (D) - 48%	-	R + 4
			51%	-	-	-	Harris (D) - 49%	-	R + 1

New Hampshire

• 4 electors
• 2016: Clinton (D) - 47.0%, Trump (R) - 46.6%; D + 0.4

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
Emerson College	09.09.2019	1,041 RV	45%	55%	-	-	-	-	D + 9
			48%	-	53%	-	-	-	D + 5
			51%	-	-	49%	-	-	R + 2
			49%	-	-	-	Harris (D) - 51%	-	D + 2
			46%	-	-	-	Yang (D) - 54%	-	D + 8
Gravis Marketing	08/06/2019	505 RV	40%	53%	-	-	-	-	D + 13
			41%	-	51%	-	-	-	D + 10
			44%	-	-	49%	-	-	D + 5
			42%	-	-	-	Buttigieg (D) - 49%	-	D + 7
			44%	-	-	-	Harris (D) - 47%	-	D + 3

New Jersey

• 14 electors
• 2016: Clinton (D) - 55.0%, Trump (R) - 41.0%; D + 14.0

No surveys have yet been conducted in this state.

New Mexico

• 5 electors
• 2016: Clinton (D) - 48.3%, Trump (R) - 40.0%; D + 8.3

No surveys have yet been conducted in this state.

new York

• 29 electors
• 2016: Clinton (D) - 59.0%, Trump (R) - 36.5%; D + 22.5

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
Siena College	06/06/2019	812 RV	36%	-	-	-	de Blasio (D) - 48%	-	D + 12
			34%	-	-	-	Gillibrand (D) - 58%	-	D + 24

North Carolina

• 15 electors
• 2016: Trump (R) - 49.8%, Clinton (D) - 46.2%; R + 3.7

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
Fox News	11/13/2019	1,504 RV	43%	45%	-	-	-	-	D + 2
			44%	-	45%	-	-	-	D + 1
			44%	-	-	43%	-	-	R + 1
			43%	-	-	-	Buttigieg (D) - 39%	-	R + 4
Siena College	10/26/2019	651 LV	48%	46%	-	-	-	-	R + 2
			48%	-	44%	-	-	-	R + 4
			48%	-	-	44%	-	-	R + 4
Fabrizio Ward LLC	July 31, 2019	600 LV	45%	49%	-	-	-	-	D + 4
Spry Strategies	06/01/2019	730 LV	52%	41%	-	-	-	-	R + 11

North Dakota

• 3 electors
• 2016: Trump (R) - 63.0%, Clinton (D) - 27.2%; R + 35.7

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
1892 polling	07/17/2019	500 LV	60%	34%	-	-	-	-	R + 26
DFM Research	May 18, 2019	400 A	54%	39%	-	-	-	-	R + 15
Zogby Analytics	08/23/2017	403 LV	47%	-	-	36%	-	-	R + 11

Ohio

• 18 electors
• 2016: Trump (R) - 51.7%, Clinton (D) - 43.6%; R + 8.9

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
Public Policy Polling	10/11/2019	776 RV	46%	48%	-	-	-	-	D + 2
			47%	-	47%	-	-	-	D / R ± 0
			47%	-	-	47%	-	-	D / R ± 0
			47%	-	-	-	Buttigieg (D) - 43%	-	R + 4
			47%	-	-	-	Harris (D) - 43%	-	R + 4
Climate Nexus	07.10.2019	1.112 RV	47%	53%	-	-	-	-	D + 6
			48%	-	52%	-	-	-	D + 4
			49%	-	-	51%	-	-	D + 2
			50%	-	-	-	Buttigieg (D) - 50%	-	D / R ± 0
			50%	-	-	-	Harris (D) - 50%	-	D / R ± 0
Zogby Analytics	08/23/2017	805 LV	40%	-	-	44%	-	-	D + 4

Oklahoma

• 7 electors
• 2016: Trump (R) - 65.3%, Clinton (D) - 28.9%; R + 36.4

No surveys have yet been conducted in this state.

Oregon

• 7 electors
• 2016: Clinton (D) - 50.1%, Trump (R) - 39.1%; D + 11.0

No surveys have yet been conducted in this state.

Pennsylvania

• 20 electors
• 2016: Trump (R) - 48.2%, Clinton (D) - 47.5%; R + 0.7

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
Muhlenberg College	11/09/2019	410 RV	43%	52%	-	-	-	-	D + 9
			45%	-	50%	-	-	-	D + 5
			45%	-	-	50%	-	-	D + 5
Siena College	10/25/2019	661 LV	45%	46%	-	-	-	-	D + 1
			45%	-	44%	-	-	-	R + 1
			46%	-	-	44%	-	-	R + 2
Firehouse Strategies	09.09.2019	527 LV	41%	45%	-	-	-	-	D + 4
			42%	-	44%	-	-	-	D + 2
			41%	-	-	43%	-	-	D + 2
WPA intelligence	04/30/2019	200 LV	45%	46%	-	-	-	-	D + 1
Tulchin Research	04/18/2019	400 LV	43%	51%	-	-	-	-	D + 8
Firehouse Strategies	03/21/2019	632 LV	43%	50%	-	-	-	-	D + 7
			44%	-	44%	-	-	-	D / R ± 0
			47%	-	-	-	O'Rourke - 40%	-	R + 7
Zogby Analytics	08/23/2017	813	38%	-	-	46%	-	-	D + 8

Rhode Island

• 4 electors
• 2016: Clinton (D) - 54.4%, Trump (R) - 38.9%; D + 15.5

No surveys have yet been conducted in this state.

South carolina

• 9 electors
• Trump (R) - 54.9%, Clinton (D) - 40.7%; R + 14.3

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
Change Research	06/14/2019	2,312 RV	54%	38%	-	-	-	-	R + 16
			54%	-	34%	-	-	-	R + 20
			54%	-	-	-	Booker (D) - 32%	-	R + 22
			54%	-	-	-	Harris (D) - 33%	-	R + 21

South Dakota

• 3 electors
• 2016: Trump (R) - 61.5%, Clinton (D) - 31.7%; R + 29.8

No surveys have yet been conducted in this state.

Tennessee

• 11 electors
• 2016: Trump (R) - 60.7%, Clinton (D) - 34.7%; R + 26.0

No surveys have yet been conducted in this state.

Texas

• 38 electors
• 2016: Trump (R) - 52.2%, Clinton (D) - 43.2%; R + 9.0

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
University of Texas	11/14/2019	1,093 RV	45%	39%	-	-	-	-	R + 5
			44%	-	40%	-	-	-	R + 4
			46%	-	-	35%	-	-	R + 11
			45%	-	-	-	Buttigieg (D) - 33%	-	R + 13
			45%	-	-	-	Castro (D) - 34%	-	R + 11
			46%	-	-	-	Harris (D) - 33%	-	R + 13
YouGov	October 27, 2019	1,200 RV	46%	39%	-	-	-	-	R + 7
			45%	-	40%	-	-	-	R + 5
			46%	-	-	39%	-	-	R + 7
			46%	-	-	-	Castro (D) - 33%	-	R + 13
			47%	-	-	-	O'Rourke (D) - 41%	-	R + 6
Univision	06.09.2019	1,004 RV	43%	47%	-	-	-	-	D + 3
			42%	-	48%	-	-	-	D + 6
			42%	-	-	44%	-	-	D + 2
			41%	-	-	-	Booker (D) - 43%	-	D + 2
			44%	-	-	-	Harris (D) - 45%	-	D + 1
			41%	-	-	-	Castro (D) - 44%	-	D + 3
WPA intelligence	07/17/2019	200 LV	49%	42%	-	-	-	-	R + 7
Public Policy Polling	02/14/2019	743 RV	49%	46%	-	-	-	-	R + 3
			49%	-	-	-	Harris (D) - 40%	-	R + 9
Atlantic Media and Research	11/01/2019	504 LV	51%	-	-	-	O'Rourke (D) - 39%	-	R + 12

Utah

• 6 electors
• 2016: Trump (R) - 45.5%, Clinton (D) - 27.5%, McMullin (I) - 21.5%; R + 18.1

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
Y2 Analytics	08/06/2019	140-153 RV	36%	35%	-	-	-	-	R + 1
			38%	-	44%	-	-	-	D + 6
			39%	-	-	36%	-	-	R + 3
			31%	-	-	-	Booker (D) - 43%	-	D + 12
			48%	-	-	-	Buttigieg (D) - 28%	-	R + 20
			48%	-	-	-	Harris (D) - 33%	-	R + 15
			41%	-	-	-	O'Rourke (D) - 27%	-	R + 14

Vermont

• 3 electors
• 2016: Clinton (D) - 56.7%, Trump (R) - 30.3%; D + 26.4

No surveys have yet been conducted in this state.

Virginia

• 13 electors
• 2016: Clinton (D) - 49.7%, Trump (R) - 44.4%; D + 4.7

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
Virginia Commonwealth University	04/10/2019	645 LV	46%	51%	-	-	-	-	D + 5
			49%	-	46%	-	-	-	R + 3
			47%	-	-	49%	-	-	D + 2
Research America Inc.	09/15/2019	882 RV	38%	55%	-	-	-	-	D + 17
			38%	-	53%	-	-	-	D + 15
			38%	-	-	53%	-	-	D + 15
			38%	-	-	-	Harris (D) - 50%	-	D + 12

Washington

• 12 electors
• 2016: Clinton (D) - 52.5%, Trump (R) - 36.8%; D + 15.7

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
Public Policy Polling	23/10/2019	900 RV	37%	59%	-	-	-	-	D + 22
			37%	-	58%	-	-	-	D + 21
			37%	-	-	60%	-	-	D + 23
Zogby Analytics	08/01/2019	1.265 LV	31%	52%	-	-	-	-	D + 21
			32%	-	54%	-	-	-	D + 22
			33%	-	-	48%	-	-	D + 15
			32%	-	-	-	Buttigieg (D) - 44%	-	D + 12
			33%	-	-	-	Harris (D) - 47%	-	D + 13

West Virginia

• 5 electors
• 2016: Trump (R) - 68.5%, Clinton (D) - 26.4%; R + 42.1

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
Tulchin Research	October 13, 2017	400 LV	46%	-	48%	-	-	-	D + 2
Zogby Analytics	08/23/2017	401 LV	43%	-	-	40%	-	-	R + 3

Wisconsin

• 10 electors
• 2016: Trump (R) - 47.2%, Clinton (D) - 46.5%; R + 0.8

Institute	date	Respondents	Trump ( r )	Biden ( D )	Sanders ( D )	Warren ( D )	Others	Further	head Start
Fox News	October 02, 2019	1,512 RV	39%	48%	-	-	-	-	D + 9
			40%	-	45%	-	-	-	D + 5
			41%	-	-	45%	-	-	D + 4
Firehouse Strategies	09.09.2019	534 LV	42%	44%	-	-	-	-	D + 2
			43%	-	49%	-	-	-	D + 6
			42%	-	-	43%	-	-	D + 1
WPA intelligence	04/30/2019	200 LV	46%	42%	-	-	-	-	R + 4
Tulchin Research	04/18/2019	400 LV	42%	52%	-	-	-	-	D + 10
Zogby Analytics	08/23/2017	603 LV	37%	-	-	48%	-	-	D + 11

Wyoming

• 3 electors
• 2016: Trump (R) - 67.4%, Clinton (D) - 21.6%; R + 46.3

No surveys have yet been conducted in this state.

Political Observers' Predictions

Contested states according to the median of the ratings of the political observers.
(Note: Nebraska-total and two districts definitely R, one district open, Maine's first district definitely D, Maine-total rather D, Maine's second district rather R)

Safe D (183)

Prob. D (27)

More like D (22)

Trend D (16)

Open (86)

Tendency R (0)

Rather R (41)

Prob. R (38)

Safe R (125)

From the political observers (“pundits”) Inside Elections , Sabato's Crystal Ball and Cook Political Report , the states were classified into the probability categories “ solid / safe ”, “likely” ( likely / favored ), “rather” ( lean ) and "Tendency" ( tilt ) classified. A total of 183 Democrats and 125 Republicans electoral votes are given as "certain":

Country	electors	PVI	Result 2016	Inside Elections (March 8, 2019)	Sabato’s Crystal Ball (November 7, 2019)	Cook Political Report (October 29, 2019)	Politico (November 19, 2019)
Alabama	9	R + 14	R + 27.7	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R
Alaska	3	R + 9	R + 14.7	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R
Arizona	11	R + 5	R + 3.6	Tendency R	Open	Open	Open
Arkansas	6th	R + 15	R + 26.9	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R
Colorado	9	D + 1	D + 4.9	Sure D	More like D	Prob. D.	More like D
Connecticut	7th	D + 6	D + 13.6	Sure D	Sure D	Sure D	Sure D
Delaware	3	D + 6	D + 11.4	Sure D	Sure D	Sure D	Prob. D.
District of Columbia	3	D + 43	D + 86.8	Sure D	Sure D	Sure D	Sure D
Florida	29	R + 2	R + 1.2	Open	More like R	Open	Open
Georgia	16	R + 5	R + 5.1	Prob. R.	More like R	More like R	More like R
Hawaii	4th	D + 18	D + 32.1	Sure D	Sure D	Sure D	Sure D
Idaho	4th	R + 19	R + 38.8	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R
Illinois	20th	D + 7	D + 17.1	Sure D	Sure D	Sure D	Sure D
Indiana	11	R + 9	R + 19.2	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R
Iowa	6th	R + 3	R + 9.4	More like R	More like R	More like R	More like R
California	55	D + 12	D + 30.1	Sure D	Sure D	Sure D	Sure D
Kansas	6th	R + 13	R + 20.6	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R
Kentucky	8th	R + 13	R + 29.8	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R
Louisiana	8th	R + 11	R + 19.6	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R
Maine as a whole	2	D + 3	D + 3.0	More like D	More like D	More like D	More like D
Maine District 1	1	D + 8	D + 14.8	-	Sure D	Sure D	Sure D
Maine District 2	1	R + 2	R + 10.3	-	More like R	More like R	More like R
Maryland	10	D + 12	D + 26.4	Sure D	Sure D	Sure D	Sure D
Massachusetts	11	D + 12	D + 27.2	Sure D	Sure D	Sure D	Sure D
Michigan	16	D + 1	R + 0.2	Tendency D	More like D	More like D	Open
Minnesota	10	D + 1	D + 1.5	Prob. D.	More like D	More like D	More like D
Mississippi	6th	R + 9	R + 17.8	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R
Missouri	10	R + 9	R + 18.6	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R
Montana	3	R + 11	R + 20.4	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R
Nebraska total	2	R + 14	R + 25.1	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R
Nebraska District 1	1	R + 11	R + 20.7	-	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R
Nebraska District 2	1	R + 4	R + 2.2	-	Open	More like R	Open
Nebraska District 3	1	R + 27	R + 54.2	-	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R
Nevada	6th	D + 1	D + 2.4	More like D	More like D	Prob. D.	More like D
New Hampshire	4th	D / R ± 0	D + 0.4	More like D	More like D	More like D	Open
New Jersey	14th	D + 7	D + 14.1	Sure D	Sure D	Sure D	Sure D
New Mexico	5	D + 3	D + 8.2	Sure D	Prob. D.	Sure D	Prob. D.
new York	29	D + 12	D + 22.5	Sure D	Sure D	Sure D	Sure D
North Carolina	15th	R + 3	R + 3.6	Open	More like R	Open	Open
North Dakota	3	R + 17	R + 35.7	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R
Ohio	18th	R + 3	R + 8.1	Prob. R.	More like R	More like R	More like R
Oklahoma	7th	R + 20	R + 37.1	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R
Oregon	7th	D + 5	D + 11.0	Sure D	Sure D	Sure D	Prob. D.
Pennsylvania	20th	D / R ± 0	R + 0.7	Tendency D	Open	Open	Open
Rhode Island	4th	D + 10	D + 15.5	Sure D	Sure D	Sure D	Prob. D.
South carolina	9	R + 8	R + 14.3	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R
South Dakota	3	R + 14	R + 29.8	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R
Tennessee	11	R + 14	R + 26.0	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R
Texas	38	R + 8	R + 9.0	Sure R	More like R	Prob. R.	More like R
Utah	6th	R + 20	R + 18.1	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R	Prob. R.
Vermont	3	D + 15	D + 26.4	Sure D	Sure D	Sure D	Sure D
Virginia	13	D + 1	D + 5.3	Sure D	Prob. D.	Prob. D.	More like D
Washington	12	D + 7	D + 15.7	Sure D	Sure D	Sure D	Sure D
West Virginia	5	R + 19	R + 42.1	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R
Wisconsin	10	D / R ± 0	R + 0.8	Open	Open	Open	Open
Wyoming	3	R + 25	R + 46.3	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R	Sure R

Related Links

• Survey collection of FiveThirtyEight
• Survey collection from RealClearPolitics

Individual evidence

1. ↑ What is the difference between registered voters and likely voters? , Gallup. Retrieved November 9, 2019
2. ↑ Why the likely voter is the holy grail of polling , Washington Post, January 7, 2016, accessed November 9, 2019
3. ↑ Registered Voter Polls Will (Usually) Overrate Democrats , FiveThirtyEight, September 9, 2014, accessed November 9, 2019
4. ↑ ^{a b} 24/7 Wall St. & Zogby Analytics BattleGround State Poll: Most Alaskan Voters Do Not Support Trump but Agree on Certain Issues , 247wallst.com, August 16, 2019, accessed: November 5, 2019
5. ↑ Arizona Poll , emersoncollege.com, October 29, 2019, accessed November 6, 2019
6. ^ Arizona Presidential Polls , FiveThirtyEight, accessed November 9, 2019
7. ↑ Statewide Survey of Arizona Registered Voters , Politico , accessed November 6, 2019
8. ↑ Arizona Statewide Survey , aarp.org, accessed November 6, 2019
9. ↑ ^{a b} Colorado Presidential Polls , FiveThirtyEight , accessed November 6, 2019
10. ↑ Connecticut Presidential Polls , FiveThirtyEight , accessed November 6, 2019
11. ↑ ^{a b c d e} Florida Presidential Polls , FiveThirtyEight, accessed November 6, 2019
12. ↑ ^{a b c d e f g h i j k} The Zogby Poll: Trump approval / Trump Vs. Warren in 11 states , pulledbyanalytics.com, August 29, 2017, accessed: November 5, 2019
13. ↑ ^{a b} Georgia Presidential Polls , FiveThirtyEight, accessed November 13, 2019
14. ↑ Zogby Analytics Poll Methodology , drawnbyanalysis.com, August 29, 2017, accessed November 5, 2019
15. ↑ ^{a b c} Iowa Presidential Polls , FiveThirtyEight, accessed November 6, 2019
16. ^ Harris struggles in Home State , emersoncollege.com, September 17, 2019, accessed November 6, 2019
17. ↑ ^{a b} Kentucky Presidential Polls , FiveThirtyEight, accessed November 6, 2019
18. ↑ ^{a b c} Maine Presidential Polls , FiveThirtyEight, accessed November 6, 2019
19. ↑ ^{a b} Impeachment Could End Collins' Career , Public Policy Polling, October 15, 2019, accessed: November 6, 2019
20. ↑ Massachusetts Dakota Presidential Polls , FiveThirtyEight, accessed November 6, 2019
21. ↑ Michigan 2020 , emersoncollege.com, November 3, 2019, accessed: November 6, 2019
22. ↑ ^{a b c d e f} Michigan Presidential Polling , FiveThirtyEight, accessed November 7, 2019
23. ↑ MIRSnews on Twitter , accessed: November 6, 2019
24. ↑ Trump vs. Democratic candidates , The Star Tribune, October 21, 2019, accessed November 6, 2019
25. ↑ Minnesota Statewide Survey , accessed November 6, 2019
26. ↑ ^{a b} Missouri Presidential Polls , FiveThirtyEight, accessed November 6, 2019
27. ↑ Montana Presidential Polls , FiveThirtyEight, accessed November 6, 2019
28. ↑ ^{a b c d} Nevada Presidential Polls , FiveThirtyEight, accessed November 6, 2019
29. ↑ ^{a b} New Hampshire Presidential Polls , FiveThirtyEight , accessed November 6, 2019
30. ^ New York Presidential Polls , FiveThirtyEight, accessed November 6, 2019
31. ↑ ^{a b c d} North Carolina Presidential Polls , FiveThirtyEight, accessed November 6, 2019
32. ↑ ^{a b} North Dakota Presidential Polls , FiveThirtyEight, accessed November 6, 2019
33. ^ ^{A b} Ohio Presidential Polls , FiveThirtyEight, accessed November 6, 2019
34. ↑ ^{a b c d e f} Pennsylvania Presidential Polls , FiveThirtyEight, accessed November 6, 2019
35. ^ Warren, and Buttigieg Lead the Democratic Primary in South Carolina , Change Research, accessed November 6, 2019
36. ↑ ^{a b c d e f} Texas Presidential Polls , FiveThirtyEight, accessed November 6, 2019
37. ↑ Utah Presidential Polls , FiveThirtyEight, accessed November 6, 2019
38. ↑ Virginia Presidential Polls , FiveThirtyEight, accessed November 6, 2019
39. ↑ Trump Trails Leading Democratic Candidates, UMW Survey Shows , University of Mary Washington, September 26, 2019, accessed November 6, 2019
40. ↑ Washington Presidential Polls , FiveThirtyEight, accessed November 7, 2019
41. ↑ West Virginia Statewide Poll Reveals Democrats are Competitive, Have Strong Opportunities in 2018 and 2020 , 247wallst.com, May 9, 2018, accessed November 5, 2019
42. ↑ ^{a b c d} Wisconsin Presidential Polls , FiveThirtyEight, accessed November 6, 2019
43. ^ Presidential Ratings , Inside Elections, March 8, 2019
44. ↑ 2020 Electoral College Ratings , Sabato's Crystal Ball, November 7, 2019
45. ↑ 2020 Electoral College Ratings , Cook Political Report, October 29, 2019
46. ↑ 2020 Election Forecast , Politico , November 19, 2019