State election in Baden-Württemberg in 2021

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2016State election in Baden-Württemberg in 2021next
Final result, voter turnout 63.8%
 %
40
30th
20th
10
0
32.6
24.1
11.0
10.5
9.7
3.6
3.0
1.2
4.3
Gains and losses
compared to 2016
 % p
   4th
   2
   0
  -2
  -4
  -6
+2.3
−2.9
−1.7
+2.2
−5.4
+0.7
+2.9
+0.9
+1.0
Distribution of seats
     
A total of 154 seats

The election for the 17th state parliament of Baden-Württemberg took place on March 14, 2021, the same day as the state elections in Rhineland-Palatinate and the local elections in Hesse .

The election winners Bündnis 90 / Die Grünen around the previous Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann received 32.6 percent of the vote. Their share was higher than ever before in a state election in Germany, while the previous coalition partner CDU achieved its lowest result in the country with around 24.1 percent, as did the opposition SPD , which, however, was able to regain third place. The AfD recorded the most significant loss of votes and is now the smallest party in the state parliament.

In addition to a possible continuation of the previous green-black government , the formation of a traffic light coalition of the Greens, SPD and FDP was also up for discussion. The possibility of a green-red coalition of the Greens and the SPD was missed by one seat, while the green-yellow coalition of the Greens and the FDP, discussed in the run-up to the election, was missed by two seats. On May 12, 2021 Winfried Kretschmann was re-elected Prime Minister of a green-black coalition.

organization

Suffrage

State constituencies in Baden-Württemberg since 2019

In contrast to the other federal states, there are no state lists and no second vote in Baden-Württemberg. A party cannot therefore offer its top politicians any safe list positions. In order to move into parliament relatively safely, they must therefore run in at least one of the 70 constituencies - preferably in those that are considered party strongholds - and for this they have to be set up by the party members resident there.

With this “personalized proportional representation without lists”, the voters vote for a direct candidate and his party at the same time - provided he does not run as a single applicant, for which 75 (previously 150) signatures are required. An election proposal can also contain a replacement candidate who, if necessary, moves into parliament as a successor.

The respective winners of their constituencies move directly into the state parliament with a direct mandate (first mandate). In addition, second mandates are allocated so that the distribution of seats reflects the ratio of votes for the parties. Only those parties that receive at least 5% of the votes are taken into account. The seats within a party are distributed regionally to the four administrative districts (Freiburg, Karlsruhe, Stuttgart, Tübingen) in descending order of the proportion of votes .

To ensure these relationships are in process Schepers Sainte-Laguë / where appropriate overhang seats awarded. As a result, the state parliament grew from a nominal 120 seats to 143 in 2016, whereby some constituencies are only represented with the first mandate, while others are represented by two, three or four members ( Heilbronn state constituency ).

Criticism and change as a result of the corona pandemic

Some small parties criticized the right to vote in state elections because of the corona pandemic . It provided for over 10,000 support signatures across the state. The left announced that the election would be challenged if the conditions were not adapted to the pandemic. The pirate party called the petition committee of the state parliament and demanded that the signatures be suspended. The Free Voters also saw their participation in the state elections at risk. The state election committee recommended hygiene measures for deployment meetings during the pandemic.

An alliance of several small parties filed a lawsuit in mid-September 2020 with the aim of reducing the number of support signatures required. On November 9, 2020, the Constitutional Court for the State of Baden-Württemberg ruled the plaintiff. On November 12, 2020, the state parliament decided, with the consent of all parliamentary groups, to halve the number of necessary signatures to 75 per constituency.

Starting position

Previous election 2016

Election to the state parliament 2016
 %
40
30th
20th
10
0
30.3
27.0
15.1
12.7
8.3
2.9
3.7
Otherwise.

The red-green coalition in the Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann Vice end Greens were more than 30 percent for the first time the strongest party in a state election in Germany. The CDU and SPD suffered significant losses, the SPD only became the fourth strongest force and lost its participation in the government.

In addition to the Greens, the clear winner of the election was the AfD party , which appeared for the first time and immediately reached over 15 percent and became the strongest opposition party. The FDP gained slightly, while the Left clearly missed its entry into the state parliament.

The losses of the SPD prevented a continuation of the green-red coalition as well as a black-red coalition analogous to the federal government, whereby an addition of the FDP would have made narrow majorities possible. The CDU and FDP rejected a collaboration between the CDU and FDP with the AfD.

The two strongest parties formed the first green-black “kiwi coalition” of the Greens at state level, with the CDU as a junior partner. The government initially held 89 of the 143 mandates in the state parliament, the Kretschmann II cabinet was sworn in on May 12, 2016.

Parliamentary groups before the election

The AfD parliamentary group originally had 23 members, of which 15 remained due to resignations and an expulsion. A former AfD member later joined the CDU parliamentary group; seven MPs are non-attached. This made the SPD the third largest group ahead of the AfD.

Parliamentary group / national association Abbreviation Seats 2016 Seats in 2021
Alliance 90 / The Greens Green 47 47
Christian Democratic Union of Germany CDU 42 43
Social Democratic Party of Germany SPD 19th 19th
Alternative for Germany AfD 23 15th
Free Democratic Party FDP 12th 12th
Non-attached - 07th

Parties and candidates

Nominations for election had to be submitted to the respective district returning officers by January 14, 2021. Parties that are not represented in the state parliament had to submit 75 support signatures for each district nomination (for a nationwide run in all 70 constituencies, at least 5,250 support signatures (70 * 75)).

A total of 21 parties with a total of 872 candidates and eight individual applicants competed. According to the results of the 2016 elections, these were in alphabetical order for new parties on the ballot paper:

Coalition statements before the election

The FDP, with its state chairman Michael Theurer and its top candidate Hans-Ulrich Rülke, signaled its readiness for a green-yellow coalition as early as 2019 . Rülke also held out the prospect of continuing a coalition led by the Greens with the election of a successor to Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann . Andreas Stoch said before the state elections that the SPD would fight for a green-red coalition or a traffic light coalition and would not be interested in working with the CDU.

Survey

As a rule, the survey institutes only give values ​​for parties that are currently represented in parliament and those that come to a share of at least three percent in the respective survey.

Last polls before the election

Institute date Green CDU AfD SPD FDP left Otherwise.
INSA 03/12/2021 32% 23% 13% 11% 11% 4% 6%
Research group elections 03/11/2021 34% 24% 11% 10% 11% 3% 7%
INSA 03/10/2021 32% 25% 12% 10% 11% 3% 7%
Research group elections 05.03.2021 35% 24% 11% 10% 10% 3% 7%
Infratest dimap 03/04/2021 33% 25% 12% 10% 10% 4% 6%
State election 2016 03/13/2016 30.3% 27.0% 15.1% 12.7% 8.3% 2.9% 3.7%

Older polls

2016 - February 2021
Institute date Green CDU AfD SPD FDP left Otherwise.
INSA 02/13/2021 31% 28% 11% 11% 10% 4% 5%
Research group elections 02/05/2021 34% 28% 11% 10% 9% 3% 5%
Infratest dimap 02/04/2021 34% 27% 10% 11% 9% 3% 6%
INSA 01/13/2021 30% 30% 12% 12% 8th % 4% 4%
Infratest dimap December 17, 2020 35% 30% 11% 10% 7% 3% 4%
INSA 11/19/2020 29% 31% 12% 11% 7% 5% 5%
Infratest dimap October 15, 2020 34% 29% 11% 11% 6% 4% 5%
INSA 09/10/2020 28% 31% 12% 12% 7% 5% 5%
Infratest dimap 04/30/2020 34% 30% 12% 11% 6% 3% 4%
INSA 04/22/2020 29% 31% 11% 13% 7% 4% 5%
Infratest dimap 03/12/2020 36% 23% 14% 11% 7% 5% 4%
INSA 10/30/2019 30% 27% 13% 11% 9% 4% 6%
Infratest dimap 19.09.2019 38% 26% 12% 8th % 8th % 3% 5%
INSA 05/10/2019 28% 27% 12% 11% 10% 6% 6%
Infratest dimap March 28, 2019 32% 28% 11% 12% 9% 4% 4%
INSA 02/14/2019 29% 27% 12% 13% 9% 5% 5%
Forsa 04/02/2019 33% 23% 13% 9% 9% 6% 7%
Infratest dimap 09/12/2018 29% 28% 15% 11% 7% 7% 3%
INSA 09/12/2018 27% 25% 18% 12% 9% 5% 4%
Forsa 02/25/2018 32% 27% 12% 12% 9% 4% 4%
Infratest dimap January 31, 2018 29% 29% 12% 12% 8th % 6% 4%
Infratest dimap 09.03.2017 27% 28% 11% 20% 7% 4% 3%
Infratest dimap 09/15/2016 31% 26% 17% 13% 7% 3% 3%
State election 2016 03/13/2016 30.3% 27.0% 15.1% 12.7% 8.3% 2.9% 3.7%

course

Survey values ​​averaged over monthly survey results, from the 2016 election to the 2021 election

Direct election of Prime Minister

Institute date 180913 Maiden voyage Hybrid Ferry 01 (cropped) .jpg Winfried Kretschmann ( Greens ) KDB3460.jpg Susanne Eisenmann ( CDU ) none of those asked
Research group elections 03/11/2021 70% 13% 17%
Research group elections 05.03.2021 70% 11% 19%
Infratest dimap 03/04/2021 65% 17% -
Older polls
Institute date 180913 Maiden voyage Hybrid Ferry 01 (cropped) .jpg Winfried Kretschmann ( Greens ) Thomas Strobl - 2017248165903 2017-09-05 CDU election campaign Heidelberg - Sven - 1D X MK II - 018 - B70I5934.jpg Thomas Strobl ( CDU ) KDB3460.jpg Susanne Eisenmann (CDU) none of those asked
Research group elections 02/05/2021 70% - 13% 17%
Infratest dimap 02/04/2021 65% - 16% 13%
INSA 01/13/2021 52% - 12% 23%
Infratest dimap October 15, 2020 66% - 13% 12%
Infratest dimap 19.09.2019 69% 13% - 9%
Infratest dimap March 28, 2019 63% 17% - 12%
Forsa 04/02/2019 59% 5% - -
Infratest dimap 09/12/2018 67% 14% - 10%

Evaluation of possible coalitions

The values ​​of the surveys reflect the opinion of the respondents as to which of the surveyed coalitions they rate as positive or negative. The missing values ​​for 100% did not provide any information.

Institute date rating Green
CDU
CDU
Greens
CDU
SPD
FDP
Green
SPD
FDP
Research group elections 05.03.2021 positive 49% 34% 25% 28%
negative 27% 40% 51% 46%
Research group elections 02/05/2021 positive 44% 39% 30% 26%
negative 32% 37% 48% 51%

Result

Majorities of votes in the constituencies

The turnout fell from 70.4 percent in the 2016 state election to 63.8 percent.

Official result of the state elections in Baden-Württemberg in 2021
Political party County
election
forward
proposals
voices Seats
number % +/- First Second total +/-
Alliance 90 / The Greens (GREEN) 70 1,586,192 32.6 +2.3 58 - 58 +11
Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) 70 1,168,975 24.1 −2.9 12th 30th 42 ± 0
Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) 70 535.489 11.0 −1.7 - 19th 19th ± 0
Free Democratic Party (FDP) 70 508.429 10.5 +2.2 - 18th 18th +6
Alternative for Germany (AfD) 70 473,485 9.7 −5.4 - 17th 17th −6
DIE LINKE (DIE LINKE) 70 173.317 3.6 +0.7 -
FREE VOTERS (FREE VOTERS) 69 146.259 3.0 +2.9 -
The PARTY (PARTY) 52 59,463 1.2 +0.9 -
the base 60 48,497 1.0 New -
Climate list (climate) 67 42,685 0.9 New -
WiR2020 (W2020) 68 41,128 0.8 New -
Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP) 67 37,819 0.8 +0.1 -
Volts (volts) 44 22,782 0.5 New -
Alliance C (Alliance C) 9 4,081 0.1 +0.1 -
Pirate Party Germany (PIRATES) 4th 2,878 0.1 −0.3 -
Democracy on the move (DiB) 3 1.005 0.0 New -
Party of Humanists (Die Humanisten) 3 976 0.0 New -
Human World (HUMAN WORLD) 2 975 0.0 ± 0 -
Health Research Party (Health Research) 2 468 0.0 New -
One for all party (one for all) 1 178 0.0 New -
German Communist Party (DKP) 1 107 0.0 ± 0 -
Single applicants 8th 4,463 0.1 +0.1 -
Others - - - −2.1 -
total 880 4,858,571 100.0 ± 0 70 84 154 +11
Valid votes 4,859,651 99.3 +0.2 -
Voter / turnout 4,894,500 63.8 −6.6 -
Eligible voters 7,671,039 -
Results by district

Stuttgart administrative district
Region of
Karlsruhe

Freiburg administrative district
Administrative region of
Tübingen
Number /
votes
% County
election
forward
proposals
Direct
MAN
date
Seats Number /
votes
% County
election
forward
proposals
Direct
MAN
date
Seats Number /
votes
% County
election
forward
proposals
Direct
MAN
date
Seats Number /
votes
% County
election
forward
proposals
Direct
MAN
date
Seats
Eligible voters 2,791,347 1,943,395 1,609,048 1,327,249
Voters 1,807,328 64.7 1,218,284 62.7 1.005.725 62.5 863.163 65.0
Valid votes 1796.057 99.4 1,208,592 99.2 998.011 99.2 856.991 99.3
Green 568,800 31.7 26th 23 23 381.022 31.5 19th 15th 15th 352,689 35.3 14th 12th 12th 283,681 33.1 11 8th 8th
CDU 437,362 24.4 26th 3 17th 277,684 23.0 19th 4th 11 224.965 22.5 14th 2 7th 228.964 26.7 11 3 7th
SPD 213.386 11.9 26th 8th 147.726 12.2 19th 6th 100,338 10.1 14th 3 74,039 8.6 11 2
FDP / DVP 198,496 11.1 26th 8th 119.962 9.9 19th 5 103.464 10.4 14th 3 86.507 10.1 11 2
AfD 175.713 9.8 26th 7th 128,865 10.7 19th 5 87,441 8.8 14th 3 81,466 9.5 11 2
The left 58,585 3.3 26th 45,771 3.8 19th 40,529 4.1 14th 28,432 3.3 11
Free voters 52,464 2.9 26th 39,155 3.2 19th 30,978 3.1 14th 23,662 2.8 11
The party 25,798 1.4 24 13,952 1.2 12th 11,507 1.2 9 8.206 1.0 7th
the base 14,918 0.8 21 11.011 0.9 16 12,717 1.3 12th 9,851 1.1 11
Climate list 11,148 0.6 23 13,231 1.1 19th 10,558 1.1 14th 7,748 0.9 11
W2020 14,336 0.8 26th 11,336 0.9 17th 8,730 0.9 14th 6,726 0.8 11
ÖDP 13,366 0.7 26th 6,634 0.5 16 8,432 0.8 14th 9,387 1.1 11
volt 5,903 0.3 14th 8,959 0.7 14th 4,332 0.4 8th 3,588 0.4 8th
Other parties 2,635 a 0.1 7th 2,884 b 0.2 6th 1,331 c 0.1 4th 3,818 d 0.4 8th
Single applicants 3,147 0.2 5 400 0.0 2 - 916 0.1 1
Overhang and
compensation mandates
Greens: 7 overhang mandates
CDU: 5 compensatory mandates
SPD: 2 compensatory mandates
FDP: 2 compensatory mandates
AfD: 2 compensatory mandates
Greens: 4 overhang mandates
CDU: 3 compensation mandates
SPD: 2 compensation mandates
FDP: 2 compensation mandates
AfD: 1 compensation mandate
Greens: 2 overhang mandates
CDU: 1 compensation mandate
AfD: 1 compensation mandate
a of which (number of district election proposals in brackets): Pirates 1522 votes (2), DiB 584 votes (2), gender research 194 votes (1), One for All - party 178 votes (1), DKP 107 votes (1)
b of which Alliance C 2213 votes (4 constituency nominations), The Humanists 671 votes (2 constituency nominations)
c Alliance C
d of which (number of district nominations in brackets): Alliance C 537 votes (1), Pirates 1306 votes (2), DiB 421 votes (1), The Humanists 305 votes (1), Human World 975 votes (2), Health Research (1 )

Overhang mandates and the compensatory mandates assigned when they occur at the level of the government districts lead to disproportionate representation of individual government districts. The administrative districts of Stuttgart and Karlsruhe are overrepresented and the administrative districts of Freiburg and Tübingen are underrepresented.

consequences

On April 3, 2021, the Greens and the CDU agreed to start coalition negotiations. Parts of the Greens, however, favored a traffic light coalition with the SPD and the FDP. Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann, on the other hand, preferred the continuation of the previous coalition with the CDU and enforced this wish. On May 12, 2021 Winfried Kretschmann was re-elected Prime Minister of a green-black coalition with 95 votes. He received five fewer votes than the ruling coalition has seats.

See also

Web links

Commons : State election in Baden-Württemberg 2021  - Collection of images, videos and audio files

Individual evidence

  1. a b Result of the 2021 state elections. Baden-Württemberg State Statistical Office , accessed on April 2, 2021 .
  2. Election dates in Germany. In: Wahlrecht.de
  3. ^ Suffrage and electoral system for the state parliament of Baden-Württemberg. (PDF) In: Landtagswahl-bw.de. Retrieved April 2, 2016 .
  4. State election 2021. In: im.baden-wuerttemberg.de. Accessed July 1, 2020 .
  5. Contestation of the state elections announced if the electoral law is not adapted to Corona conditions. Accessed July 1, 2020 .
  6. Petition: Ensure diversity for the state elections in 2021. In: Pirate Party Baden-Württemberg. May 15, 2020, accessed July 1, 2020 .
  7. Are small parties disadvantaged in the state elections? In: regio-tv.de. April 20, 2020, accessed July 1, 2020 .
  8. Recommendations of the Ministry of Social Affairs and Integration, the Ministry of the Interior, Digitization and Migration and the State Returning Officer on infection protection measures when holding assembly meetings for the state elections. (PDF) In: im.baden-wuerttemberg.de. Accessed July 1, 2020 .
  9. High hurdle before state elections: small parties complain against the electoral law. In: stuttgarter-zeitung.de. Retrieved September 21, 2020 .
  10. Court: Small parties at a disadvantage in the BW state elections. In: swr.de. Retrieved November 13, 2020 .
  11. Baden-Württemberg lowers the electoral threshold for small parties. In: zeit.de. November 12, 2020, accessed November 13, 2020 .
  12. https://im.baden-wuerttemberg.de/fileadmin/redaktion/m-im/intern/daten/pdf/20210129_Wahlvorzüge_für_die_Landtagswahl_am_14._ März_2021.pdf
  13. https://www.stuttgarter-zeitung.de/inhalt.fdp-und-winfried-kretschmann-liberale-liebaeugeln-mit-den-gruenen.98ad3e3b-eb59-4200-b609-32c490576f37.html
  14. https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/wahlen-stuttgart-ruelke-ampel-auch-mit-kretschmann-nachhaben-fortetzen-dpa.urn-newsml-dpa-com-20090101-210302-99-661271
  15. https://www.zeit.de/news/2021-01/29/spd-hat-laut-stoch-keine-lust-auf-koalition-mit-der-cdu
  16. FAQ: Where does the data for the Baden-Württemberg trend come from? In: swr.de. Retrieved March 9, 2021 .
  17. a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab Overview of the Sunday questions about the next state election in Baden-Württemberg. In: Wahlrecht.de
  18. Incumbent clearly ahead in both countries. In: zdf.de. Retrieved March 11, 2021 .
  19. a b Desired Prime Minister: Much approval for Kretschmann. In: zdf.de. Retrieved March 5, 2021 .
  20. Kretschmann still with an official bonus. In: swr.de. Retrieved March 4, 2021 .
  21. ^ Before elections: support for prime ministers. In: zdf.de. Retrieved February 5, 2021 .
  22. CDU clearly behind the Greens, Kretschmann is losing popularity. In: swr.de. Retrieved February 4, 2021 .
  23. New INSA survey: Greens and CDU on par. In: stuttgarter-nachrichten.de. Retrieved January 13, 2021 .
  24. Kretschmann continues with official bonus. In: swr.de. Retrieved October 15, 2020 .
  25. Sunday question: Greens at record high, SPD sags. In: swr.de. Retrieved September 19, 2019 .
  26. Kretschmann with a clear official bonus. In: swr.de. Retrieved March 28, 2019 .
  27. ^ Citizens satisfied with Kretschmann and the Greens. In: presseportal.de. Retrieved February 4, 2019 .
  28. Direct election of Prime Minister: Kretschmann appreciated across all parties. In: swr.de. Retrieved September 12, 2018 .
  29. Politbarometer-Extra Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate February 2021, In: forschungsgruppe.de
  30. State Statistical Office: result by administrative district
  31. State Statistical Office: Distribution of seats according to administrative districts
  32. ^ State of Baden-Württemberg: Preliminary results of the state elections
  33. Baden-Württemberg , on wahlrecht.de
  34. ^ Die Zeit: Greens and CDU agree on coalition negotiations