Statewide opinion polling for the 2008 United States presidential election: Difference between revisions

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<!-- NOTE TO THOSE MAKING CHANGES: Please take care to use the most recent poll that does *not* have next to it a single star (Zogby Interactive) or a double star (Partisan based polling). These polls introduce too much error into them, and by consensus have been discluded from the latest results listing -->
<!-- NOTE TO THOSE MAKING CHANGES: Please take care to use the most recent poll that does *not* have next to it a single star (Zogby Interactive) or a double star (Partisan based polling). These polls introduce too much error into them, and by consensus have been discluded from the latest results listing -->
*Total states (23 states & D.C. - 278 electoral votes)
*Total states (23 states & D.C. - 278 electoral votes)
*Safe states§ (12 states & D.C. - 175 electoral votes)
*Safe states§ (12 states & D.C. - 171 electoral votes)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#California|California]] (55)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#California|California]] (55)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Connecticut|Connecticut]] (7)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Connecticut|Connecticut]] (7)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#District of Columbia|District of Columbia]] (3)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#District of Columbia|District of Columbia]] (3)
⚫
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Delaware|Delaware]] (3)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Hawaii|Hawaii]] (4)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Hawaii|Hawaii]] (4)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Illinois|Illinois]] (21)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Illinois|Illinois]] (21)
Line 3,459: Line 3,460:
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Maryland|Maryland]] (10)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Maryland|Maryland]] (10)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Massachusetts|Massachusetts]] (12)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Massachusetts|Massachusetts]] (12)
⚫
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#New Jersey|New Jersey]] (15)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#New York|New York]] (31)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#New York|New York]] (31)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Rhode Island|Rhode Island]] (4)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Rhode Island|Rhode Island]] (4)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Vermont|Vermont]] (3)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Vermont|Vermont]] (3)
⚫
*Leaning states (11 states - 106 electoral votes)
⚫
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Washington|Washington]] (11)
⚫
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Wisconsin|Wisconsin]] (10)
⚫
*Leaning states (11 states - 103 electoral votes)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Colorado|Colorado]] (9)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Colorado|Colorado]] (9)
⚫
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Delaware|Delaware]] (3)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Iowa|Iowa]] (7)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Iowa|Iowa]] (7)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Michigan|Michigan]] (17)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Michigan|Michigan]] (17)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Minnesota|Minnesota]] (10)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Minnesota|Minnesota]] (10)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Nevada|Nevada]] (5)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Nevada|Nevada]] (5)
⚫
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#New Jersey|New Jersey]] (15)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#New Hampshire|New Hampshire]] (4)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#New Hampshire|New Hampshire]] (4)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#New Mexico|New Mexico]] (5)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#New Mexico|New Mexico]] (5)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Oregon|Oregon]] (7)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Oregon|Oregon]] (7)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Pennsylvania|Pennsylvania]] (21)
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Pennsylvania|Pennsylvania]] (21)
⚫
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Washington|Washington]] (11)
⚫
**[[Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008#Wisconsin|Wisconsin]] (10)


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Revision as of 19:49, 9 September 2008

Template:Future election in the United States

This article provides a collection of scientific, state-wide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the United States of America (U.S.) presidential election, 2008.

Opinion polling

For an archive of older polls, please see Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008/Archive.

AlabamaAlabama

9 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Capital Survey Research Center/
Alabama Education Association 		July 29-August 4 2008 Barack Obama 34% John McCain 47%
Rasmussen Reports July 31,2008 Barack Obama 38% John McCain 58%
Capital Survey Research Center/
Alabama Education Association 		June 25-26,30,July 1 2008 Barack Obama 36% John McCain 49%
Zogby International * June 11-30, 2008 Barack Obama 36% John McCain 47%
Rasmussen Reports June 26, 2008 Barack Obama 36% John McCain 51%

AlaskaAlaska

3 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Others %
American Viewpoint ** September 2 2008 Barack Obama 33% John McCain 57%    
Ivan Moore Research August 30 - September 2 2008 Barack Obama 34.9% John McCain 53.5%    
Hays Research Group ** August 6-7 2008 Barack Obama 45% John McCain 40% Ralph Nader 2%
Rasmussen Reports July 30 2008 Barack Obama 42% John McCain 48%    
Ivan Moore Research July 18-22 2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 47%    
Rasmussen Reports July 17 2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 49%    
Research 2000/
Daily Kos 		July 14-16 2008 Barack Obama 41% John McCain 51%    
Rasmussen Reports June 16 2008 Barack Obama 41% John McCain 45% Other 7%

ArizonaArizona

10 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication August 20,2008 Barack Obama 30% John McCain 40%
Mason Dixon August 13 -15 2008 Barack Obama 41% John McCain 47%    
Public Policy Polling(PPP) July 30-31,2008 Barack Obama 40% John McCain 52%
Rasmussen Reports July 30,2008 Barack Obama 38% John McCain 57%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 42% John McCain 39%
Rasmussen Reports June 25 2008 Barack Obama 40% John McCain 49%
Arizona State University/KAET June 20-21 2008 Barack Obama 28% John McCain 38%

ArkansasArkansas

6 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Rasmussen Reports July 17 2008 Barack Obama 39% John McCain 52%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 41% John McCain 39%
Rasmussen Reports June 12 2008 Barack Obama 39% John McCain 48%
Rasmussen Reports May 12 2008 Barack Obama 33% John McCain 57%

CaliforniaCalifornia

55 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Rasmussen Reports August 21 2008 Barack Obama 54% John McCain 41%
Public Policy Institute of California August 12-19 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 39%
Rasmussen Reports July 24 2008 Barack Obama 52% John McCain 42%
Public Policy Institute of California July 8-22 2008 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 35%
Field Research Corporation July 8-14 2008 Barack Obama 54% John McCain 30%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 52% John McCain 32%
Rasmussen Reports June 23 2008 Barack Obama 58% John McCain 30%
Survey USA June 17-19 2008 Barack Obama 53% John McCain 41%

ColoradoColorado

9 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Others %
Fox News/
Rasmussen Reports 		September 7,2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 46%
Tarrance Group ** September 2-3 2008 Barack Obama 45% John McCain 47%
CNN/Time Magazine/
Opinion Research 		August 24-26 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 47%
Hill Research Consultants ** August 23-24 2008 Barack Obama 43% John McCain 40%
Suffolk University August 21-24 2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 39%
Quinnipiac University August 15-21 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 47%    
Zogby Interactive * August 15-19 2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 38% Bob Barr 8%
Ralph Nader 2%
Other 8%
Mason Dixon August 13 -15 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 43%    
Rasmussen Reports August 13 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 49%    
Rocky Mtn News/CBS4 August 11-13 2008 Barack Obama 41% John McCain 44% Bob Barr 3%
Ralph Nader 2%
Other 2%
Public Policy Polling August 5-7 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 44%    
FrederickPolls July 16-22 2008 Barack Obama 45% John McCain 41%    
Quinnipiac University/
Wall Street Journal/
Washington Post 		July 14-22 2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 46% Other 3%
Rasmussen Reports July 21 2008 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 47%    
Public Policy Polling July 9-10 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 43%    
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 40% John McCain 38% Bob Barr 8%
Ralph Nader 2%
Other 4%
Quinnipiac University/
Wall Street Journal/
Washington Post 		June 17-24 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 44% Other 2%
Rasmussen Reports June 17 2008 Barack Obama 43% John McCain 41% Other 8%

ConnecticutConnecticut

7 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Rasmussen Reports July 31,2008 Barack Obama 51% John McCain 36%
Research 2000/
Daily Kos 		June 30-July 2 2008 Barack Obama 57% John McCain 35%
Rasmussen Reports July 1,2008 Barack Obama 52% John McCain 35%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 32%
Quinnipiac University June 26-29 2008 Barack Obama 56% John McCain 35%

DelawareDelaware

3 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Survey USA February 26-28 2008 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 41%

FloridaFlorida

27 electoral votes chart

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Others %
Public Policy Polling September 7,2008 Barack Obama 45% John McCain 50%
Fox News/
Rasmussen Reports 		September 7,2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 48%
Mason Dixon August 25-26 2008 Barack Obama 45% John McCain 44%
Strategic Vision August 22-24 2008 Barack Obama 42% John McCain 49% Bob Barr 1%
Quinnipiac University August 17-24 2008 Barack Obama 43% John McCain 47% Others 2%
Kitchens Group ** August 18-21 2008 Barack Obama 39% John McCain 42% Others 6%
American Research Group August 18-20 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 47%
Zogby Interactive * August 15-19 2008 Barack Obama 40% John McCain 43% Bob Barr 5%
Ralph Nader 1%
Other 12%
Rasmussen Reports August 18,2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 48%
InsiderAdvantage/
Majority Opinion Research 		August 11 2008 Barack Obama 44.2% John McCain 47.8%
Survey USA August 1-3 2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 50%
Public Policy Polling July 30-August 2 2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 47%
Quinnipiac University July 23-29 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 44%
Fabrizio,McLaughlin & Associates/
Florida Chamber of Commerce ** 		July 20-28 2008 Barack Obama 40% John McCain 45%
Rasmussen Reports July 22,2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 47%
American Research Group July 19-21 2008 Barack Obama 45% John McCain 47%
War Room Logistics July 7-8 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 44%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 39% John McCain 43%
Strategic Vision June 27-29 2008 Barack Obama 41% John McCain 49%
Public Policy Polling June 26-29 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 44%
Rasmussen Reports June 26,2008 Barack Obama 41% John McCain 48%
Rasmussen Reports June 18,2008 Barack Obama 39% John McCain 47%
American Research Group June 13-17 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 44%
Quinnipiac University June 9-16 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 43%

Georgia (U.S. state)Georgia

15 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Rasmussen Reports August 14 2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 53%
Rasmussen Reports July 17 2008 Barack Obama 42% John McCain 53%
InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position/
Majority Opinion Research 		July 2 2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 46%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 38% John McCain 44%
Strategic Vision June 27-29 2008 Barack Obama 43% John McCain 51%
Rasmussen Reports June 26 2008 Barack Obama 43% John McCain 53%
InsiderAdvantage/
Majority Opinion Research 		June 18 2008 Barack Obama 43% John McCain 44%
Rasmussen Reports June 4 2008 Barack Obama 41% John McCain 51%

HawaiiHawaii

4 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Survey USA February 26-29 2008 Barack Obama 61% John McCain 31%

IdahoIdaho

4 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Greg Smith & Associates August 18-22 2008 Barack Obama 29% John McCain 52%
Research 2000/Daily Kos July 28-30 2008 Barack Obama 37% John McCain 53%
Survey USA February 26-28 2008 Barack Obama 39% John McCain 52%

IllinoisIllinois

21 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Rasmussen Reports August 12,2008 Barack Obama 55% John McCain 40%
Rasmussen Reports July 8,2008 Barack Obama 52% John McCain 41%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 52% John McCain 32%
Survey USA February 26-28 2008 Barack Obama 60% John McCain 31%
Research 2000 January 21-24 2008 Barack Obama 58% John McCain 37%

IndianaIndiana

11 electoral votes chart

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Howey-Gauge August 29-30 2008 Barack Obama 43% John McCain 45%
Rasmussen Reports August 19-21 2008 Barack Obama 43% John McCain 49%
Survey USA August 16-18 2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 50%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 39% John McCain 40%
Survey USA June 21-23 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 47%

IowaIowa

7 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
CNN/Time Magazine/
Opinion Research 		August 31-September 2, 2008 Barack Obama 55% John McCain 40%
Hawkeye Poll August 13, 2008 Barack Obama 49.5% John McCain 43.1%
Rasmussen Reports August 7, 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 44%
Rasmussen Reports July 10, 2008 Barack Obama 51% John McCain 41%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 42% John McCain 38%
Survey USA June 13-16 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 45%
Rasmussen Reports June 10, 2008 Barack Obama 45% John McCain 38%

KansasKansas

6 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Survey USA August 18-20 2008 Barack Obama 35% John McCain 58%
Rasmussen Reports August 11 2008 Barack Obama 41% John McCain 55%
Rasmussen Reports July 14 2008 Barack Obama 35% John McCain 58%
TargetPoint Consulting, Inc. June 27-July 1 2008 Barack Obama 36% John McCain 49%
SurveyUSA/
Public Opinion Strategies 		June 22-23 2008 Barack Obama 39% John McCain 50%
Rasmussen Reports June 11 2008 Barack Obama 37% John McCain 47%
Cooper & Secrest June 5-8 2008 Barack Obama 41% John McCain 45%

KentuckyKentucky

8 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Survey USA August 9-11 2008 Barack Obama 37% John McCain 55%
Research 2000/Daily Kos July 28-30 2008 Barack Obama 35% John McCain 56%
Rasmussen Reports July 29,2008 Barack Obama 43% John McCain 52%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 39% John McCain 44%
Rasmussen Reports June 25,2008 Barack Obama 35% John McCain 51%
Survey USA June 13-16 2008 Barack Obama 41% John McCain 53%

LouisianaLouisiana

9 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Rasmussen Reports August 17, 2008 Barack Obama 39% John McCain 57%
Rasmussen Reports July 9, 2008 Barack Obama 37% John McCain 56%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 40% John McCain 47%
Southern Media/
Opinion Research 		June 26-28 2008 Barack Obama 35% John McCain 52%

MaineMaine

4 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Rasmussen Reports August 12 2008 Barack Obama 53% John McCain 39%
Rasmussen Reports July 17 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 41%
Critical Insights June 1-27 2008 Barack Obama 51% John McCain 31%
Pan Atlantic SMS June 10-18 2008 Barack Obama 37% John McCain 26%
Rasmussen Reports June 16 2008 Barack Obama 55% John McCain 33%

MarylandMaryland

10 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Rasmussen Reports August 18,2008 Barack Obama 53% John McCain 43%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 54% John McCain 30%
Survey USA February 26-28 2008 Barack Obama 53% John McCain 40%

MassachusettsMassachusetts

12 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Rasmussen Reports August 5 2008 Barack Obama 54% John McCain 38%
Suffolk University July 31-August 3 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 38%
Rasmussen Reports June 30,2008 Barack Obama 53% John McCain 33%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 54% John McCain 29%
Survey USA June 25-27,2008 Barack Obama 53% John McCain 40%
Suffolk University June 8-10 2008 Barack Obama 53% John McCain 30%

MichiganMichigan

17 electoral votes chart

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Others %
Strategic Vision September 7,2008 Barack Obama 45% John McCain 44%
Public Policy Polling September 6-7 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 46%
EPIC-MRA/Detroit News August 18-21 2008 Barack Obama 43% John McCain 41%
Selzer/Detroit Free Press/WDIV August 17-20 2008[1] Barack Obama 46% John McCain 39%
Zogby Interactive * August 15-19 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 37% Bob Barr 5%
Ralph Nader 1%
Other 12%
Rasmussen Reports August 7 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 45%
Public Policy Polling July 23-27 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 43%
Quinnipiac University/
Wall Street Journal/
Washington Post 		July 14-22 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 42%
EPIC-MRA/
Detroit News 		July 13-16 2008 Barack Obama 43% John McCain 41%
Rasmussen Reports July 10 2008 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 42%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 33%
Quinnipiac University/
Wall Street Journal/
Washington Post 		June 17-24 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 42%
Public Policy Polling June 21-22 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 39%
Rasmussen Reports June 9 2008 Barack Obama 45% John McCain 42%

MinnesotaMinnesota

10 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
CNN/Time Magazine/
Opinion Research 		August 31-September 2, 2008 Barack Obama 53% John McCain 41%
Minnesota Public Radio/
University of Minnesota 		August 7-17 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 38%
Survey USA August 13-14 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 45%
Rasmussen Reports August 13 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 45%
Rasmussen Reports July 22 2008 Barack Obama 52% John McCain 39%
Quinnipiac University/
Wall Street Journal/
Washington Post 		July 14-22 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 44%
Rasmussen Reports July 10 2008 Barack Obama 54% John McCain 37%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 32%
Quinnipiac University/
Wall Street Journal/
Washington Post 		June 17-24 2008 Barack Obama 54% John McCain 37%
Survey USA June 13-16 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 46%
Rasmussen Reports June 11 2008 Barack Obama 52% John McCain 39%

MississippiMississippi

6 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Rasmussen Reports August 21 2008 Barack Obama 43% John McCain 56%
Rasmussen Reports July 28 2008 Barack Obama 42% John McCain 54%
Research 2000/
Daily Kos 		July 21-23 2008 Barack Obama 42% John McCain 51%
Rasmussen Reports June 24 2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 50%
Rasmussen Reports May 27 2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 50%
Research 2000/
Daily Kos 		May 19-21 2008 Barack Obama 39% John McCain 54%
Survey USA February 26-28 2008 Barack Obama 41% John McCain 54%

MissouriMissouri

11 electoral votes chart

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Public Policy Polling August 13-17 2008 Barack Obama 40% John McCain 50%
Rasmussen Reports August 7 2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 50%
Survey USA July 29-31 2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 49%
Research 2000/
St. Louis Post Dispatch 		July 7-10 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 43%
Rasmussen Reports July 7 2008 Barack Obama 42% John McCain 47%
Public Policy Polling July 2-5 2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 47%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 42% John McCain 40%
Survey USA June 20-22 2008 Barack Obama 43% John McCain 50%
Rasmussen Reports June 3 2008 Barack Obama 43% John McCain 42%

MontanaMontana

3 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Rasmussen Reports July 31 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 47%
Rasmussen Reports July 1 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 43%
Mason Dixon/
Lee Newspapers 		May 19-21 2008 Barack Obama 39% John McCain 47%
Rasmussen Reports April 6, 2008 Barack Obama 43% John McCain 48%
Survey USA February 26-28 2008 Barack Obama 39% John McCain 47%

NebraskaNebraska

5 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Rasmussen Reports July 28 2008 Barack Obama 36% John McCain 55%
Rasmussen Reports June 23 2008 Barack Obama 36% John McCain 52%
Research 2000/Daily Kos May 19-21 2008 Barack Obama 29% John McCain 57%
Survey USA May 16-18 2008 Barack Obama 40% John McCain 49%
Rasmussen Reports May 15 2008 Barack Obama 39% John McCain 50%
Survey USA February 26-28 2008 Barack Obama 42% John McCain 45%

NevadaNevada

5 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
CNN/Time Magazine/
Opinion Research 		August 24-26 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 44%
Research 2000/
Reno Gazette-Journal/KTVN 		August 18-20,2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 43%
Mason-Dixon/
Las Vegas Review Journal 		August 13-15,2008 Barack Obama 39% John McCain 46%
Zogby Interactive * August 15-19 2008 Barack Obama 39% John McCain 38% Bob Barr 10%
Ralph Nader 3%
Other 10%
Rasmussen Reports August 11,2008 Barack Obama 45% John McCain 48%
Rasmussen Reports July 16,2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 45%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 38% John McCain 38%
Rasmussen Reports June 18,2008 Barack Obama 42% John McCain 45%
Mason Dixon/
Las Vegas Review Journal 		June 9-11 2008 Barack Obama 42% John McCain 44%

New HampshireNew Hampshire

4 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Rasmussen Reports August 20,2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 46%
Zogby Interactive * August 15-19 2008 Barack Obama 38% John McCain 42% Bob Barr 11%
Ralph Nader 1%
Other 9%
American Research Group August 18-20 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 45%
Rasmussen Reports July 23,2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 45%
American Research Group July 19-21 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 45%
University of New Hampshire July 11-20 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 43%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 40% John McCain 37%
Rasmussen Reports June 18,2008 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 39%
American Research Group June 13-17 2008 Barack Obama 51% John McCain 39%

New JerseyNew Jersey

15 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Quinnipiac University August 4-10 2008 Barack Obama 51% John McCain 41%
Rasmussen Reports August 4 2008 Barack Obama 52% John McCain 42%
Monmouth University/
Gannett New Jersey 		July 17-21 2008 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 36%
Strategic Vision July 11-13 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 38%
Rasmussen Reports July 7 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 44%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 36%
Fairleigh Dickinson University June 17-23 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 33%
Quinnipiac University June 5-8 2008 Barack Obama 45% John McCain 39%
Rasmussen Reports June 4 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 39%

New MexicoNew Mexico

5 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
CNN/Time Magazine/
Opinion Research 		August 24-26 2008 Barack Obama 53% John McCain 40%
Rasmussen Reports August 20 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 44%
Zogby Interactive * August 15-19 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 37% Bob Barr 5%
Ralph Nader 1%
Other 11%
Mason Dixon August 13 -15 2008 Barack Obama 41% John McCain 45%    
Rasmussen Reports July 24 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 43%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 33%
Rasmussen Reports June 19 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 39%
Survey USA June 17-19 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 46%

New York (state)New York

31 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Siena College August 11-14 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 39%
Rasmussen Reports August 4 2008 Barack Obama 55% John McCain 36%
Quinnipiac University July 31-August 4 2008 Barack Obama 57% John McCain 36%
Siena College July 17-29 2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 26%
Siena College July 7-10 2008 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 37%
Rasmussen Reports June 30 2008 Barack Obama 60% John McCain 29%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 51% John McCain 30%
Survey USA June 25-27 2008 Barack Obama 57% John McCain 37%
Siena College June 9-11 2008 Barack Obama 51% John McCain 33%
New York Times June 6-11 2008 Barack Obama 51% John McCain 32%
Quinnipiac University June 3-8 2008 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 36%

North CarolinaNorth Carolina

15 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Democracy Corps/
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 		August 20-26 2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 47%
Public Policy Polling August 23 2008 Barack Obama 42% John McCain 45%
InsiderAdvantage August 19 2008 Barack Obama 42.8% John McCain 44.5%
Zogby International * August 15-August 19 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 39%
Civitas Institute/
Tel Opinion Research 		August 14-17 2008 Barack Obama 40% John McCain 46%
Rasmussen Reports August 13 2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 50%
Survey USA August 9-11 2008 Barack Obama 45% John McCain 49%
Research 2000/Daily Kos July 28-30 2008 Barack Obama 43% John McCain 47%
Public Policy Polling July 23-27 2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 47%
Civitas Institute/
Tel Opinion Research 		July 14-16 2008 Barack Obama 40% John McCain 43%
Rasmussen Reports July 15 2008 Barack Obama 45% John McCain 48%
Survey USA July 12-14 2008 Barack Obama 45% John McCain 50%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 38%
Public Policy Polling June 26-29 2008 Barack Obama 41% John McCain 45%
Civitas Institute/
Tel Opinion Research 		June 11-13 2008 Barack Obama 41% John McCain 45%
Rasmussen Reports June 10 2008 Barack Obama 43% John McCain 45%

North DakotaNorth Dakota

3 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
North Dakota United Transportation Union/
DFM Research ** 		August 23-27 2008 Barack Obama 43% John McCain 40%
Research 2000/
Daily Kos 		July 21-July 23 2008 Barack Obama 42% John McCain 45%
Rasmussen Reports July 8,2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 47%
Dakota Wesleyan University March 24-April 3 2008 Barack Obama 38% John McCain 44%
Survey USA February 26-28 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 42%

OhioOhio

20 electoral votes chart

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Fox News/
Rasmussen Reports 		September 7,2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 51%
CNN/Time Magazine/
Opinion Research 		August 31-September 2, 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 45%
Quinnipiac University August 17-24,2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 43%
The Columbus Dispatch August 12-21,2008 Barack Obama 41% John McCain 42%
Rasmussen Reports August 20,2008 Barack Obama 43% John McCain 48%
Zogby Interactive * August 15-19 2008 Barack Obama 41% John McCain 36% Bob Barr 8%
Ralph Nader 1%
Other 13%
Public Policy Polling August 12-14 2008 Barack Obama 45% John McCain 45%
Quinnipiac University July 23-29 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 44%
Rasmussen Reports July 21,2008 Barack Obama 42% John McCain 52%
Public Policy Polling July 17-20 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 40%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 43% John McCain 38%
Survey USA June 20-22,2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 46%
Rasmussen Reports June 17,2008 Barack Obama 43% John McCain 44%
Quinnipiac University June 9-16 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 42%
Public Policy Polling June 14-15 2008 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 39%

OklahomaOklahoma

7 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Survey USA September 5-7 2008 Barack Obama 32% John McCain 65%
Sooner Poll/
Tulsa World 		July 19-23 2008 Barack Obama 24% John McCain 56%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 37% John McCain 42%
Research 2000/Daily Kos June 9-11 2008 Barack Obama 38% John McCain 52%
Survey USA February 26-28 2008 Barack Obama 34% John McCain 57%

OregonOregon

7 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Rasmussen Reports August 7 2008 Barack Obama 52% John McCain 42%
Survey USA August 2-4 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 45%
Rasmussen Reports July 15 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 40%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 33%
Survey USA June 17-19 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 45%
Rasmussen Reports June 11 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 38%

PennsylvaniaPennsylvania

21 electoral votes chart

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Fox News/
Rasmussen Reports 		September 8, 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 45%
CNN/Time Magazine/
Opinion Research 		August 24-26 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 43%
Quinnipiac University August 17 - 24, 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 42%
Rasmussen Reports August 19, 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 45%
Zogby Interactive * August 15-19 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 37% Bob Barr 5%
Ralph Nader 3%
Other 8%
Susquehanna
Polling & Research 		August 11-14 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 41%
Franklin and Marshall College August 4-10 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 41%
Quinnipiac University July 23-29 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 42%
Strategic Vision July 25-27 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 40%
Rasmussen Reports July 23, 2008 Barack Obama 51% John McCain 45%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 36%
Rasmussen Reports June 19-22, 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 42%
Quinnipiac University June 9-16 2008 Barack Obama 52% John McCain 40%

Rhode IslandRhode Island

4 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Brown University August 18-20 2008 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 30%
Rasmussen Reports June 30,2008 Barack Obama 55% John McCain 31%
Rhode Island College June 18-27 2008 Barack Obama 53% John McCain 25%
Survey USA February 26-28 2008 Barack Obama 53% John McCain 38%
Brown University February 9-10 2008 Barack Obama 42% John McCain 30%

South CarolinaSouth Carolina

8 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Research 2000/Daily Kos July 22-23 2008 Barack Obama 40% John McCain 53%
Public Policy Polling July 9-11 2008 Barack Obama 39% John McCain 45%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 42% John McCain 41%
Rasmussen Reports June 5 2008 Barack Obama 39% John McCain 48%
Survey USA February 26-28 2008 Barack Obama 45% John McCain 48%

South DakotaSouth Dakota

3 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Rasmussen Reports July 9 2008 Barack Obama 43% John McCain 47%
Dakota Wesleyan March 24-April 03 2008 Barack Obama 34% John McCain 51%
Rasmussen Reports March 4 2008 Barack Obama 38% John McCain 48%
Survey USA February 26-28 2008 Barack Obama 43% John McCain 47%

TennesseeTennessee

11 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Rasmussen Reports August 20, 2008 Barack Obama 35% John McCain 60%
Ayres, McHenry & Associates ** August 10-12 2008 Barack Obama 36% John McCain 51%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 36% John McCain 41%
Rasmussen Reports June 24, 2008 Barack Obama 36% John McCain 51%
Rasmussen Reports April 3, 2008 Barack Obama 31% John McCain 58%
Survey USA February 26-28 2008 Barack Obama 38% John McCain 54%
Middle Tennessee State University February 11-23 2008 Barack Obama 36% John McCain 50%

TexasTexas

34 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Rasmussen Reports August 21,2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 54%
University of Texas July 18-30,2008 Barack Obama 33% John McCain 43%
Rasmussen Reports July 29,2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 52%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 39% John McCain 42%
Rasmussen Reports June 25,2008 Barack Obama 39% John McCain 48%
Texas Lyceum June 12-20 2008 Barack Obama 38% John McCain 43%
Rasmussen Reports June 2 2008 Barack Obama 39% John McCain 52%

UtahUtah

5 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Mason Dixon August 13 -15 2008 Barack Obama 23% John McCain 62%    
Rasmussen Reports June 19 2008 Barack Obama 33% John McCain 52%
Deseret News/
Dan Jones & Associates 		June 16-19 2008 Barack Obama 29% John McCain 57%
Deseret News/
Dan Jones & Associates 		May 13-19 2008 Barack Obama 27% John McCain 62%
Survey USA February 26-28 2008 Barack Obama 39% John McCain 50%

VermontVermont

3 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Survey USA February 26-28 2008 Barack Obama 63% John McCain 29%

VirginiaVirginia

13 electoral votes chart

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Fox News/
Rasmussen Reports 		September 7,2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 49%
Survey USA September 5-7 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 49%
Public Policy Polling August 20-22 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 45%
Zogby Interactive * August 15-19 2008 Barack Obama 43% John McCain 41% Bob Barr 5%
Ralph Nader 1%
Other 10%
InsiderAdvantage/
Majority Opinion Research 		August 12 2008 Barack Obama 42.6% John McCain 43.1%
Rasmussen Reports August 12 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 48%
Survey USA August 8-10 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 48%
Public Policy Polling July 17-20 2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 44%
Rasmussen Reports July 16 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 48%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 39%
Survey USA June 20-22 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 47%
Public Policy Polling June 14-16 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 45%
Rasmussen Reports June 12 2008 Barack Obama 45% John McCain 44%

Washington (state)Washington

11 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Survey USA September 5-7 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 45%
Survey USA August 11-12 2008 Barack Obama 51% John McCain 44%
Rasmussen Reports August 6 2008 Barack Obama 54% John McCain 42%
Elway Poll July 27-31 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 35%
Strategic Vision July 25-27 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 37%
Survey USA July 13-15 2008 Barack Obama 55% John McCain 39%
Moore Information July 9-10 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 37%
Rasmussen Reports July 9 2008 Barack Obama 51% John McCain 43%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 35%
Strategies 360 June 26 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 39%
Survey USA June 17-19 2008 Barack Obama 55% John McCain 40%
Rasmussen Reports June 9 2008 Barack Obama 53% John McCain 35%
Survey USA June 7-9 2008 Barack Obama 56% John McCain 39%

West VirginiaWest Virginia

5 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Rasmussen Reports June 2 2008 Barack Obama 37% John McCain 45%
Survey USA February 26-28 2008 Barack Obama 35% John McCain 53%

WisconsinWisconsin

10 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Strategic Vision September 7,2008 Barack Obama 46% John McCain 43%
Strategic Vision August 8-10 2008 Barack Obama 47% John McCain 42%
Rasmussen Reports August 5 2008 Barack Obama 51% John McCain 44%
Wisconsin Policy Research Institute August 3-4 2008 Barack Obama 44% John McCain 38%
Quinnipiac University/
Wall Street Journal/
Washington Post 		July 14-22 2008 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 39%
Rasmussen Reports July 8 2008 Barack Obama 52% John McCain 42%
Zogby International * June 11-30 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 38%
Quinnipiac University/
Wall Street Journal/
Washington Post 		June 17-24 2008 Barack Obama 52% John McCain 39%
Survey USA June 13-16 2008 Barack Obama 52% John McCain 43%
University of Wisconsin June 8-10 2008 Barack Obama 50% John McCain 37%
Rasmussen Reports June 5 2008 Barack Obama 45% John McCain 43%

WyomingWyoming

3 electoral votes

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican %
Mason Dixon August 13 -15 2008 Barack Obama 25% John McCain 62%
Research 2000/Daily Kos May 20-21 2008 Barack Obama 40% John McCain 53%
Survey USA February 26-28 2008 Barack Obama 35% John McCain 54%

Notes:

  • * a scientific poll conducted via the Internet (not used in calculating results below).
  • ** a poll commissioned by an organization affiliated with a specific candidate (not used in calculating results below).

Latest results (using latest polling when available)

The numbers in parentheses indicate the number of electoral votes awarded to each state. A total of 538 electoral votes are distributed among the states and DC. A state is indicated as 'for Obama' or 'for McCain' or 'tied' based upon a single poll - the most recent. This list is thus for indicative purposes only.

Notes:

  • §- states listed as a "safe" state by The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator


Maps of most recent polling data

Map and totals updated on September 8 2008. Maps are based on an average for previous polling data, and as such may be slow to show changes in countrywide opinion. Click on map for details.

Obama vs. McCain
Safe Obama - over 10% (165)
Likely Obama - over 5% (217) (62)
Leans Obama - over 1% (264) (47)
Tossup - within 1% (30)
Leans McCain - over 1%(244) (66)
Likely McCain - over 5% (168) (71)
Safe McCain - over 10% (97)
Totals
Obama leads: 264 electoral votes

McCain leads: 244 electoral votes

Charts of polling data in battleground states

Updated August 20, 2008

Florida

data

In Florida, from February to mid-May 2008, McCain held a steady lead in the polls. From mid-May to mid-June, the candidates were virtually tied. Polling conducted since mid-June shows McCain in the lead in most polls, and Obama ahead in some polls. The number of undecided voters has generally been decreasing from an average of about 15% down to an average of about 5% to 10% in recent polling.[2]

Pennsylvania

data

In Pennsylvania, from February 2008 until mid-April 2008, the candidates moved back and forth between leading and lagging in the polls. Since mid-April, polls show Obama with a lead averaging about 7% to 8%. The number of undecided voters has generally been decreasing from an average of about 15% down to an average of about 10% in recent polling.[3]

Ohio

data

In Ohio, from February 2008 until mid-April 2008, McCain's held a slight 2% to 3% lead in the polls. From mid-April to mid-July, Obama held a 3% to 4% lead in the polls. Recent polls show McCain pulling ahead of Obama. The number of undecided voters has generally been decreasing from an average of about 15% down to an average of about 10% in recent polling.[4]

Michigan

data

In Michigan, from February 2008 to mid-May, Obama and McCain were very close in the polls. From mid-May to early July, Obama was ahead by as much as 10%, but Obama's lead has recently decreased to about 3% to 4%. The number of undecided voters has generally been decreasing from an average of about 15% down to an average of about 10% in recent polling.[5]

Virginia

data

In Virginia, from February 2008 until mid-May 2008, McCain held a lead in the polls averaging about 6%. From mid-May to present, Obama and McCain are basically tied. During this period, undecided voters made up an average of about 5% to 11% of the total.[6]

Indiana

data
File:Indiana Obama versus McCain Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election 2008.jpg
In Indiana, from February 2008 until early May 2008, McCain's 9% lead in the polls was reduced to a tie. The candidates were tied in polls conducted in late June. A recent poll shows McCain with a 6% lead over Obama. During this period, undecided voters made up an average of about 7% to 11% of the total.[7]

Missouri

data

In Missouri, from February 2008 to present, McCain had steadily led in the polls. His lead was the greatest in March. The polls closed to within a few percentage points from mid-May to early July, and McCain is beginning to pull away again in recent polling, currently showing an average lead of about 5% to 10%. The number of undecided voters has generally been decreasing from an average of over 10% down to an average of about 7% to 8% in recent polling.[8]

See also

References

  1. ^ "Poll: Obama Leading McCain In Mich - Politics News Story - WDIV Detroit". Clickondetroit.com. Retrieved 2008-09-05.
  2. ^ Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008#Florida
  3. ^ Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008#Pennsylvania
  4. ^ Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008#Ohio
  5. ^ Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008#Michigan
  6. ^ Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008#Virginia
  7. ^ Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008#Indiana
  8. ^ Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008#Missouri

External links

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