Election to the 19th Berlin House of Representatives

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The Berlin House of Representatives

The election for the 19th Berlin House of Representatives is expected to take place in autumn (September) 2021.

Starting position

Previous election 2016

Election to the House of Representatives in 2016
 %
30th
20th
10
0
21.6
17.6
15.6
15.2
14.2
6.7
9.1
Otherwise.

The SPD ranged 21.6 percent to become the strongest force, it is so far the smallest share of votes, the largest party in a German state parliament. In addition to the SPD, the CDU in particular lost , both parties had to accept their worst election results in Berlin ever. While the left gained slightly, the green lost slightly. The AfD competed for the first time in Berlin and reached 14.2 percent, the FDP succeeded in re-entering the House of Representatives.

After the election, the first red-red-green government was formed with the SPD at its head; the coalition holds 92 of the 160 seats in the House of Representatives. Michael Müller thus remained the governing mayor of Berlin.

Current parliamentary groups in the state parliament

Parliamentary group / national association Order code
drawing
Seats
Social Democratic Party of Germany SPD 38
Christian Democratic Union of Germany CDU 31
The left LEFT 27
Alliance 90 / The Greens GREEN 27
Alternative for Germany AfD 22nd
Free Democratic Party FDP 11
Non-attached 4th

Survey

Current polls

INSA survey from July 15, 2020
compared to the 2016 election
 %
30th
20th
10
0
21st
19th
18th
16
12
5
9
Otherwise.
Gains and losses
compared to 2016
(rounded to half a percent)
 % p
   4th
   2
   0
  -2
  -4
  -6
+3.5
+4
+2.5
-5.5
-2
-1.5
± 0
Otherwise.
Institute date SPD CDU left Green AfD FDP Otherwise.
INSA 07/15/2020 16% 21% 18% 19% 12% 5% 9%
Infratest dimap 04/29/2020 20% 23% 14% 21% 10% 5% 7%
Forsa 02/11/2020 15% 16% 17% 25% 11% 6% 10%
INSA 02/01/2020 15% 18% 19% 23% 13% 7% 5%
Forsa December 26, 2019 15% 17% 19% 22% 11% 6% 10%
Forsa December 03, 2019 16% 17% 17% 24% 11% 5% 10%
Infratest dimap 11/20/2019 16% 18% 17% 23% 14% 5% 7%
Forsa 06/11/2019 15% 18% 16% 25% 11% 5% 10%
Forsa 04/10/2019 16% 17% 16% 24% 11% 6% 10%
Election 2016 09/18/2016 21.6% 17.6% 15.6% 15.2% 14.2% 6.7% 9.2%

Older polls

2016 - September 2019
Institute date SPD CDU left Green AfD FDP POLITICAL PARTY Otherwise.
INSA September 18, 2019 15% 17% 18% 24% 14% 6% - 6%
Forsa 08/31/2019 16% 16% 17% 24% 11% 6% - 10%
Forsa 07/29/2019 16% 17% 18% 25% 10% 5% - 9%
Forsa 07/01/2019 15% 17% 17% 25% 10% 7% - 9%
Forsa 06/03/2019 16% 15% 17% 26% 11% 7% - 8th %
Infratest dimap 05/08/2019 15% 17% 19% 23% 10% 6% - 10%
Forsa 04/26/2019 16% 17% 18% 25% 11% 7% - 6%
INSA 04/10/2019 16% 19% 19% 19% 12% 9% - 6%
Forsa 04/04/2019 15% 18% 18% 25% 10% 8th % - 6%
Forsa 05.03.2019 17% 20% 18% 22% 11% 7% - 5%
Forsa 02/05/2019 16% 19% 20% 21% 11% 8th % - 5%
Forsa 01/01/2019 15% 17% 18% 23% 13% 7% - 7%
INSA December 18, 2018 16% 18% 16% 21% 14% 8th % - 7%
Forsa December 06, 2018 15% 18% 18% 23% 13% 7% - 6%
Infratest dimap 11/21/2018 15% 18% 18% 24% 13% 6% - 6%
INSA 07/11/2018 16% 16% 17% 22% 15% 7% - 7%
Forsa 10/26/2018 15% 16% 19% 22% 13% 8th % - 7%
Forsa October 01, 2018 16% 17% 22% 18% 13% 7% - 7%
Forsa 03.09.2018 17% 19% 21% 18% 12% 6% - 7%
Forsa 07/31/2018 17% 19% 21% 17% 13% 7% - 6%
INSA July 18, 2018 17% 18% 17% 18% 14% 7% 4% 5%
Forsa 07/01/2018 19% 18% 21% 16% 11% 8th % - 7%
Forsa 06/01/2018 18% 19% 20% 18% 11% 7% - 7%
Infratest dimap May 16, 2018 18% 21% 22% 15% 11% 6% - 7%
Forsa 05/04/2018 19% 19% 19% 18% 11% 7% - 7%
INSA 04/14/2018 19% 19% 19% 17% 13% 8th % 2% 3%
Forsa 04/04/2018 20% 20% 18% 17% 12% 7% - 6%
Forsa 02/26/2018 19% 19% 20% 18% 12% 6% - 6%
Forsa January 31, 2018 20% 19% 18% 17% 11% 7% - 8th %
Forsa 02/01/2018 20% 20% 18% 17% 11% 6% - 8th %
Forsa 11/26/2017 18% 21% 18% 16% 11% 8th % - 8th %
Forsa 11/01/2017 19% 20% 18% 14% 11% 9% - 9%
Forsa 08/10/2017 18% 19% 19% 15% 11% 9% - 9%
Infratest dimap 09/12/2017 21% 23% 19% 14% 10% 7% - 6%
Forsa 09/03/2017 19% 21% 19% 14% 9% 11% - 9%
Forsa 08/01/2017 20% 22% 18% 14% 8th % 9% - 9%
Forsa 07/06/2017 21% 22% 17% 14% 8th % 9% - 9%
Forsa 05/30/2017 22% 23% 16% 13% 8th % 8th % - 10%
Infratest dimap 05/23/2017 22% 24% 17% 13% 10% 8th % - 6%
Forsa 05/03/2017 24% 20% 16% 12% 9% 8th % - 11%
Forsa 04/03/2017 25% 20% 16% 13% 8th % 7% - 11%
Forsa 02/27/2017 25% 17% 16% 13% 10% 8th % - 11%
Forsa 01/30/2017 20% 20% 16% 15% 12% 8th % - 9%
Forsa 02/01/2017 20% 20% 17% 16% 12% 7% - 8th %
Forsa 11/27/2016 19% 20% 16% 17% 13% 7% - 8th %
Infratest dimap 11/24/2016 21% 19% 17% 15% 13% 7% - 8th %
Forsa 10/30/2016 20% 18% 16% 16% 13% 7% - 10%
Election 2016 09/18/2016 21.6% 17.6% 15.6% 15.2% 14.2% 6.7% 2.0% 7.2%

course

Survey values ​​averaged over monthly survey results, from the 2016 election to July 15, 2020

Surveys for West and East Berlin

West Berlin

Institute date SPD CDU Green AfD left FDP Otherwise.
Infratest dimap 04/29/2020 20% 25% 23% 8th % 11% 6% 7%
Infratest dimap 11/20/2019 18% 20% 26% 12% 12% 5% 7%
Infratest dimap 05/08/2019 17% 20% 27% 8th % 13% 6% 9%
Election 2016 09/18/2016 23.2% 20.9% 17.1% 12.1% 10.1% 8.6% 6.5%
Older polls
Institute date SPD CDU Green AfD left FDP Otherwise.
Infratest dimap 11/21/2018 15% 21% 27% 11% 12% 8th % 6%
Infratest dimap May 16, 2018 20% 23% 18% 10% 16% 7% 6%
Infratest dimap 09/12/2017 23% 25% 15% 10% 13% 8th % 6%
Infratest dimap 05/23/2017 23% 24% 15% 10% 13% 10% 5%
Infratest dimap 11/24/2016 23% 22% 17% 12% 11% 8th % 7%
Election 2016 09/18/2016 23.2% 20.9% 17.1% 12.1% 10.1% 8.6% 6.5%

East Berlin

Institute date left SPD AfD CDU Green FDP Otherwise.
Infratest dimap 04/29/2020 19% 19% 13% 20% 18% 3% 8th %
Infratest dimap 11/20/2019 24% 14% 16% 16% 18% 5% 7%
Infratest dimap 05/08/2019 28% 13% 13% 14% 16% 5% 11%
Election 2016 09/18/2016 23.4% 19.3% 17.0% 13.1% 12.6% 4.0% 8.8%
Older polls
Institute date left SPD AfD CDU Green FDP Otherwise.
Infratest dimap 11/21/2018 27% 15% 15% 12% 20% 4% 7%
Infratest dimap May 16, 2018 29% 16% 14% 18% 11% 5% 7%
Infratest dimap 09/12/2017 26% 19% 11% 21% 13% 4% 6%
Infratest dimap 05/23/2017 22% 22% 10% 23% 10% 6% 7%
Infratest dimap 11/24/2016 25% 19% 15% 14% 12% 5% 10%
Election 2016 09/18/2016 23.4% 19.3% 17.0% 13.1% 12.6% 4.0% 8.8%

Potential analysis

Institute date Election chance SPD CDU left Green AfD FDP
INSA 04/10/2019 "for sure" 11% 13% 14% 12% 9% 6%
"Sure and maybe" 38% 34% 34% 42% 15% 23%
"Generally not" 19% 32% 27% 20% 68% 28%
INSA July 18, 2018 "for sure" 12% 11% 13% 11% 10% 4%
"Sure and maybe" 42% 31% 31% 36% 18% 20%
"Generally not" 16% 29% 24% 20% 65% 26%

See also

Individual evidence

  1. a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd Overview of the polls on the election of the House of Representatives in Berlin in 2021 , from Wahlrecht.de, accessed on October 10, 2017.
  2. a b c d e f g h Overview of the surveys for West Berlin on the election of the House of Representatives in Berlin in 2021 , on wahlrecht.de, accessed on October 10, 2017.
  3. a b c d e f g h Overview of the surveys for East Berlin on the election of the House of Representatives in Berlin in 2021 , on wahlrecht.de, accessed on October 10, 2017.
  4. INSA Sunday Question Berlin April 2019 , on insa-consulere.de, accessed on April 10, 2019.
  5. INSA Sunday Question Berlin July 2018 , on freiepresse.de, accessed on July 18, 2018.