2008 Republican Party presidential primaries: Difference between revisions

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==Campaign timeline==
==Campaign timeline==
{{see|Republican Party (United States) presidential debates, 2008}}

===Early campaigning===
===Early campaigning===
The race for the 2008 presidential nomination officially began in March 2006 when [[John H. Cox]] became the first candidate to enter the 2008 race. The Democratic takeover of both houses of Congress and President Bush's unflattering popularity were strong issues for the GOP field. At the beginning of 2007, the announced Republican field was former [[Governor of Wisconsin]] and [[U.S. Cabinet|Cabinet]] member [[Tommy Thompson]], former Governor of Virginia [[Jim Gilmore]], and [[U.S. Senator|Senator]] of [[Kansas]] [[Sam Brownback]]. Former senator of [[Virginia]] [[George Allen]] was considered the frontrunner until his loss in the midterm elections. He announced on December 10, 2006 that he would not seek the 2008 nomination. Several others, such as [[Vice President of the United States|Vice President]] [[Dick Cheney]] and [[United States Secretary of State|Secretary of State]] [[Condoleezza Rice]] also ruled themselves out of the race. In early January former [[Governor of Massachusetts]] [[Mitt Romney]] announced he was forming an exploratory committee. Afterwards several others announced they were running, including U.S.Congressman [[Ron Paul]], [[Mike Huckabee]] of Arkansas, [[Rudy Giuliani]] of New York City, U.S. Senator [[John McCain]], [[U.S. Congressman]] [[Duncan Hunter]], and U.S.Congressman [[Tom Tancredo]]. A poll released in early February had Giuliani leading with 32% and [[John McCain]] second with 18%. By early March, Giuliani had become the frontrunner. [[Alan Keyes]] and former Senator and actor [[Fred Thompson]] entered the race later in September
The race for the 2008 presidential nomination officially began in March 2006 when [[John H. Cox]] became the first candidate to enter the 2008 race. The Democratic takeover of both houses of Congress and President Bush's unflattering popularity were strong issues for the GOP field. At the beginning of 2007, the announced Republican field was former [[Governor of Wisconsin]] and [[U.S. Cabinet|Cabinet]] member [[Tommy Thompson]], former Governor of Virginia [[Jim Gilmore]], and [[U.S. Senator|Senator]] of [[Kansas]] [[Sam Brownback]]. Former senator of [[Virginia]] [[George Allen]] was considered the frontrunner until his loss in the midterm elections. He announced on December 10, 2006 that he would not seek the 2008 nomination. Several others, such as [[Vice President of the United States|Vice President]] [[Dick Cheney]] and [[United States Secretary of State|Secretary of State]] [[Condoleezza Rice]] also ruled themselves out of the race. In early January former [[Governor of Massachusetts]] [[Mitt Romney]] announced he was forming an exploratory committee. Afterwards several others announced they were running, including U.S.Congressman [[Ron Paul]], [[Mike Huckabee]] of Arkansas, [[Rudy Giuliani]] of New York City, U.S. Senator [[John McCain]], [[U.S. Congressman]] [[Duncan Hunter]], and U.S.Congressman [[Tom Tancredo]]. A poll released in early February had Giuliani leading with 32% and [[John McCain]] second with 18%. By early March, Giuliani had become the frontrunner. [[Alan Keyes]] and former Senator and actor [[Fred Thompson]] entered the race later in September

Revision as of 16:10, 15 September 2008

Republican Presidential Primaries, 2008

← 2004 January 3 to June 3, 2008 2012 →
 
Nominee John McCain Mitt Romney Mike Huckabee
Home state Arizona Massachusetts Arkansas
States carried 31+D.C. 11 8
Popular vote 9,840,746 4,525,036 4,179,514
Percentage 47.25%% 21.73% 20.07%

Republican Primary Results. Red denotes a McCain win, purple a Romney win, and peach a Huckabee win.

Candidates

Notes for the following table: Delegate counts is the final estimated delegate count.[1]

Candidate Current office Home state Estimated delegate count
(RCP)
Campaign status Links States won States - second place States - third place

McCain, JohnJohn McCain
U.S. Senator Arizona
1,455
66.2%
Nominee campaign article, campaign website
34
New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, New York, California, Illinois, Missouri, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Arizona, New Jersey, Delaware, Washington, Virginia, Maryland, Wisconsin, Vermont, Rhode Island, Ohio, Texas, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia (primary), Nebraska, Hawaii, Kentucky, Oregon, Idaho, South Dakota, New Mexico, Montana (primary)
Non-states: Washington DC, Puerto Rico, Northern Mariana Islands, American Samoa, Virgin Islands, Guam
13
(Alabama, Arkansas, Utah, Massachusetts, Maine, Michigan, Georgia, Tennessee, Minnesota, Colorado, North Dakota, Kansas, Louisiana)
4
(Nevada (caucus), Maine, West Virginia (caucus), Montana (Republican caucus)

Huckabee, MikeMike Huckabee
Former Governor Arkansas
270
12.3%
Withdrew March 4, 2008[2] campaign article, campaign website
8
(Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Iowa, West Virginia (caucus), Tennessee, Kansas, Louisiana)
14
(South Carolina, Oklahoma, Missouri, Alaska, Washington, Virginia, Washington DC, Maryland, Wisconsin, Washington, Northern Mariana Islands, West Virginia (primary), Kentucky
13
(Michigan, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Illinois, Arizona, Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Minnesota, Colorado, Pennsylvania, South Dakota)

Romney, MittMitt Romney
Former Governor Massachusetts
189
8.6%
Withdrew February 7, 2008 campaign article, campaign website
11
(Michigan, Nevada (caucus), Wyoming, Maine, Massachusetts, Montana (caucus), Utah, Minnesota, Colorado, North Dakota, Alaska)
12
(Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, West Virginia (caucus), Illinois, New York, Arizona, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, California)
9
(Missouri, Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Maryland, Washington (primary)

Paul, RonRon Paul
U.S. Representative Texas
35
1.6%
Suspended June 12, 2008 campaign article, campaign website
0
12
(Nevada (caucus), Montana (caucus), Northern Mariana Islands, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, Nebraska, Oregon, Idaho, South Dakota, New Mexico, Montana (primary)
17
(N. Dakota, Utah, Alaska, Maine, Kansas, Washington (caucus), Virginia, District of Columbia, Wisconsin, Puerto Rico, Vermont, Rhode Island, Ohio, Texas, Mississippi, West Virginia (primary), Kentucky

Thompson, FredFred Thompson
Former U.S. Senator Tennessee
11
0.5%
Withdrew January 22, 2008 campaign article, campaign website
0
1
(Wyoming)
2
(South Carolina, Iowa)

Hunter, DuncanDuncan Hunter
U.S. Representative California
1'
Withdrew January 19, 2008 campaign article, campaign website
0
0
1
(Wyoming)

Giuliani, RudyRudy Giuliani
Former Mayor New York
0
Withdrew January 30, 2008 campaign article, campaign website
0
0
1
(Florida)

Calendar and representation

Republican candidates in the 2008 U.S. presidential election will campaign for the nomination from their party in a series of primary elections and caucus events.[3]

Delegate selection

Primary key[4]
Primary type Explanation
Closed Voters may only select candidates of the party for which they are registered
Open Anyone is allowed to vote for candidates from either party
Modified open Voters registered to a party may only select candidates of that party, but independents may choose candidates from either party
Caucus Party members meet among themselves to select candidates. Rules may be very complicated, including members having to choose publicly by standing in groups by preference, instead of secret ballot
Primary An election-type selection process, with general voters going to polling places for a secret ballot
Convention Delegates chosen locally by each party meet in a central location and select a candidate
Presidential preference Those polled get to list candidates in the order of whom they like most. As candidates are eliminated, the highest remaining on their list becomes their vote
WTA Winner Take All -- whoever wins the most votes in the state, even if not a majority, gets all of the delegates
Proportional The state's delegates are divided up among the candidates, in proportion to their percentage of the vote

Unlike the Democratic Party, which mandates a proportional representation system for delegate selection within a state, the Republican Party has no such restriction. For states with primaries, some states choose to use the "winner-take-all" method to award delegates within a state, while others do winner-take-all within a congressional district, and still others use the proportional process. Unlike the Democratic Party, where pledged delegates support the candidate whom they are pledged, state party by-laws determine whether each delegate is pledged and for how many ballots.

In caucus states, most state parties use a two pronged process. A straw poll, often called a presidential preference poll, is conducted of the attendees at the caucus. The results are released to the media and published on the state party website. Delegates are then elected to the county conventions. It is at the county conventions that delegates are elected to state conventions, and from the state convention to the national convention. At each level, delegates may be bound or unbound to a candidate. If unbound, delegates are not obligated to follow the results of the presidential preference poll. Thus, all estimates of delegates from caucus states are dependent on state party by-laws.

Endorsements

Unlike in the Democratic Party, Republican members of Congress (including Senate members, House members, and non-voting delegates), and state governors are not automatically made delegates to the party's national convention, however their endorsements can hold sway on voters in caucuses and primaries.

Each state's two members of the Republican National Committee, and the party chairs of each state and territory are the only automatic delegates to the party's national convention. These superdelegates while officially uncommitted, may also publicly endorse a candidate.

Campaign timeline

Early campaigning

The race for the 2008 presidential nomination officially began in March 2006 when John H. Cox became the first candidate to enter the 2008 race. The Democratic takeover of both houses of Congress and President Bush's unflattering popularity were strong issues for the GOP field. At the beginning of 2007, the announced Republican field was former Governor of Wisconsin and Cabinet member Tommy Thompson, former Governor of Virginia Jim Gilmore, and Senator of Kansas Sam Brownback. Former senator of Virginia George Allen was considered the frontrunner until his loss in the midterm elections. He announced on December 10, 2006 that he would not seek the 2008 nomination. Several others, such as Vice President Dick Cheney and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also ruled themselves out of the race. In early January former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney announced he was forming an exploratory committee. Afterwards several others announced they were running, including U.S.Congressman Ron Paul, Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, Rudy Giuliani of New York City, U.S. Senator John McCain, U.S. Congressman Duncan Hunter, and U.S.Congressman Tom Tancredo. A poll released in early February had Giuliani leading with 32% and John McCain second with 18%. By early March, Giuliani had become the frontrunner. Alan Keyes and former Senator and actor Fred Thompson entered the race later in September

Early dropouts

The first to drop out of the race was Former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore in July. After that Tommy Thompson also dropped out in August after finishing sixth in the Ames Iowa straw poll. Then pro-life advocate Sam Brownback dropped out of the race in October. In December, staunch illegal-immigration opponent Tom Tancredo and businessman John H. Cox also left the race.

Iowa and New Hampshire

2008 Iowa Republican Caucus county Map

On January 3 2008, The Caucuses in Iowa began. The final averaged results from Real Clear Politics showed Mike Huckabee at 30%, Romney at 27%, McCain and Thompson tied at 12%, Paul at 7%, and Giuliani at 6%..[5] Among those surveyed in Exit Polling data, 45% cited themselves as very conservative and voted for Huckabee 35% to Romney's 23% and Thompson's 22%. Among those who called themselves "somewhat conservative" (43%), Huckabee won 34% to Romney's 27% and McCain's 18%.[6]

Final Results showed Huckabee swept much of the state with the exception of the western and eastern portions of the state which included Davenport, Cedar Rapids, as well as Sioux City. Romney swept the eastern and western portions of the state and Paul took one southern county. The final results in Iowa were Huckabee with 34%, Romney with 25%, Thompson and McCain each with 13%, Paul with 10% and Giuliani with 4%.

2008 New Hampshire Primary results by precinct, which correspond to municipal boundaries

In the New Hampshire Primary, both McCain and Romney had gambled much on the state. McCain had staked much on his grassroots efforts in the state he won in 2000, as well as the state with one of the most independent voting blocks which was McCain strong suit. Romney, coming from neighboring Massachusetts was known by many in New Hampshire and even owned a home in the state of New Hampshire. Pre-Primary polling showed McCain with a slight edge (32%-28%)with Huckabee leading Giuliani for third (12%-9%).

On Primary night, McCain won 37%-32% and Huckabee beat Giuliani for third 11%-9%. After the results, Huckabee decided to focus on the South Carolina primary, while both McCain and Romney went to Michigan where polls showed a competitive race between the two.

Michigan

With different winners in Iowa and New Hampshire - and Mitt Romney taking the lower-profile Wyoming caucus - the January 15 Michigan primary loomed as an important battle. Polls after New Hampshire showed a tight race between McCain and Romney, with Huckabee a close third.[7][8] Many saw Michigan as Romney's last chance for a campaign-saving win after disappointments in the first two races.[9][10] Others said that a win in Michigan could cement McCain's status as the "front-runner" for the nomination.[11] McCain's campaign garnered about $1 million in newly contributed funds immediately after the New Hampshire win,[12] but still had $3.5 million in bank debt.[13] He was not alone in feeling a financial pinch; the entire Republican field suffered from a lack of enthusiasm and lower donations than the Democratic candidates were getting,[12] with by comparison Hillary Rodham Clinton getting $6 million in new funds immediately after her New Hampshire win.[12]

Nevertheless, some polls showed McCain getting a significant national bounce from his New Hampshire win; the January 11 CNN nationwide poll had him at 34 percent support, a 21-point increase from where he had been just a month before, and a significant lead over follow-upers Huckabee (21 percent) and Giuliani (18 percent).[14] As the Michigan race entered its final days, McCain gained some notoriety by sending out mailers there and in South Carolina attacking Romney's tax record and touting his own. A Romney campaign spokesman called the ad "as sloppy as it is factually incorrect", and FactCheck.org called the piece "misleading". McCain responded by saying, "It's not negative campaigning. I think it's what his record is." "It's a tough business," he added.[15][16][17]

The dominant issue in Michigan was the state of the economy. Michigan had by far the nation's largest unemployment rate, at 7.4 percent, and was continuing to lose jobs from its historical manufacturing base.[18] McCain offered a bit of his "straight talk", saying that "There are some jobs that aren't coming back to Michigan," and proposing federal job training plans and other remedies to compensate.[18] Romney seized on McCain's statement as overly pessimistic and promoted instead his family heritage — "[I've] got the automobile industry in my blood veins" — as well as his being a Washington outsider who would go there and "turn Washington inside out."[18]

In the end, McCain finished second in the primary behind Romney, gaining 30 percent of the vote to Romney's 39 percent.[19]

Nevada and South Carolina

Mitt Romney was heavily favored to win Nevada, leading 34% to 19% in polls. He exceeded expectations, earning 51% of the vote with Ron Paul beating out John McCain for second. Romney campaigned hard in Nevada and did not campaign in South Carolina, while the other leading Republican candidates, John McCain and Mike Huckabee, kept their focus on South Carolina. Nevada was not subject to the Republican party cutting in half the number of delegates the state can send to the national convention, and neither was South Carolina.However, Nevada had more delegates at stake than South Carolina. A win in Nevada extended Romney's lead in total delegates. Nevada's large Mormon population helped Romney win the state.[20]

On January 17, Ron Paul's Nevada campaign representatives warned state GOP officials that thousands of caucus goers had been given incorrect information on where to go to caucus. The problem was fixed - via a message on the Nevada GOP website - that morning, two days before the caucus.[21]

After coming last in this caucus, Duncan Hunter withdrew his bid for the nomination.

Mike Huckabee needed to win South Carolina for his campaign to remain viable. RealClearPolitics reported that the average support from polls placed McCain in the lead with 26.9%, followed by Huckabee with 25.9%, Romney with 14.7%, Thompson with 14.6%, Paul with 4.4%, and Giuliani with 3.4%. Thompson started attacking Mike Huckabee heavily, questioning his conservative credentials. But in the end McCain narrowly won by 14,743 or 3%, putting McCain as the frontrunner in Florida.

Mike Huckabee giving his concession speech after the 2008 South Carolina Presidential Primary in Columbia, SC.

Fred Thompson only placed third, even though he had started to campaign in South Carolina immediately after Iowa and before the other candidates had started campaigning there. He withdrew the next day.

Florida

Rudy Giuliani campaigned quite heavily in Florida, which he expected to use as his "launch pad" for a "strong showing" on Super Tuesday.[22] He campaigned almost entirely in Florida, and largely ignored South Carolina and other states voting before February 5. Polls taken before the primary showed that John McCain was the slight front runner over Mitt Romney.[23] Giuliani had been campaigning with virtually no opposition;[24] however, following the South Carolina Republican primary, 2008, several candidates flew down to Florida to begin campaigning up to January 29 when the primary occurred.[25] RealClearPolitics reported that the average support from polls taken in the days immediately prior to primary day placed McCain slightly in the lead with 30.7%, followed by Romney with 30.1%, Giuliani with 14.7%, Huckabee with 12.9%, and Paul with 3.6%.[26] Former Senator Fred Thompson and Rep. Duncan Hunter, though already out of the race, still remained on the ballot in the Florida primary. John McCain narrowly won over Mitt Romney 36% to 31%, making him the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. Rudy Giuliani finished in third place, and subsequently dropped out and endorsed McCain.

Super Tuesday

McCain reacts to his Super Tuesday victories during a celebration that night at the Arizona Biltmore Hotel in Phoenix.

On January 31 McCain received the endorsement of Governor of California Arnold Schwarzenegger[27] and began campaigning with him.[28] This was a key endorsement, as California was one of the Super Tuesday states and had more delegates than any other state. The same day, Governor Rick Perry of Texas threw his support behind McCain.[29] Perry had previously been a Giuliani supporter, while Schwarzenegger had refrained from endorsing either McCain or Giuliani because he counted both men as friends.[30][29] Meanwhile, Romney, still burning about McCain's misleading Iraq withdrawal timetable charge, compared McCain to disgraced former President Richard Nixon, saying that McCain's claim was “reminiscent of the Nixon era” and that “I don’t think I want to see our party go back to that kind of campaigning.”[28]

McCain won his home state of Arizona, taking all 53 of the state's delegates and the largest of the Super Tuesday prizes, winning nearly all of California's 173 delegates. McCain also scored wins in Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York and Oklahoma. Huckabee also made surprise wins in states he had polled behind in previously like Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee. Huckabee also won the first contest of Super Tuesday in West Virginia. Romney won his home state of Massachusetts. He also won Utah, Colorado, and Minnesota.[31]

The next day, McCain appeared confident that he would be the Republican nominee. Estimates showed him with 707 delegates - nearly 60% of the total needed to win the nomination. He began to appeal to disaffected conservatives, saying ""We share the common principles and values and ideas for the future of this country based on a fundamental conservative political philosophy, which has been my record." He also suggested that the right wing of the party "calm down a little bit" and begin to look for areas of agreement. Meanwhile, Romney advisers privately expressed doubts about whether their candidate could realistically hope to defeat McCain, and it was unclear if Romney would spend significant money on key February 12 contests in Virginia and Maryland.[32]

Romney drops his bid at CPAC

Both McCain and Romney addressed the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington, DC on February 7, while Mike Huckabee spoke on February 9. Romney used his speech to announce the end of his campaign, saying, "Now if I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention -- (cheers, applause). I want you to know I've given this a lot of thought. I'd forestall the launch of a national campaign and, frankly, I'd be making it easier for Senator Clinton or Obama to win. Frankly, in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign be a part of aiding a surrender to terror." [33] McCain spoke about an hour later, again appealing to right-wing uncertainty about his ideology. He focused on his opposition to abortion and gun control, as well as his support for lower taxes and free-market health care solutions.[34][35] He told the CPAC audience that he arrived in Washington as "a foot soldier in the Reagan Revolution", and addressed the issue of illegal immigration - one of the major issues where conservatives have attacked McCain. He said that "it would be among my highest priorities to secure our borders first", before addressing other immigration laws.[36] Mike Huckabee spoke to CPAC two days later and said, "I know that there was some speculation that I might come here today to announce that I would be getting out of the race. But I want to make sure you understand. Am I quitting? Well, let's get that settled right now. No, I'm not. And the reason is simple -- because I go back to that which helped crystallize in me a conservative viewpoint as a teenager when it wasn't easy or popular to be a Republican or a conservative in my hometown, because I do believe that America is about making choices, not simply echoing that of others. Let others join the "Me, too" crowd. But I didn't get where I am today and I didn't fight the battles in a state that, when I became its governor, was 90 percent Democrat, by simply echoing the voices of others. I did it by staking out a choice, stating that choice, making that choice and fighting for that choice, to believe that some things were right, some things were wrong, and it's better to be right and even to not win than it is to be wrong and to be a part of the crowd."[37]

More February contests

February 9 saw voting in Louisiana, Kansas and Washington state. Huckabee won an easy victory in Kansas, claiming all 36 of the state's delegates to the national convention. Only 14,016 votes were cast, and the McCain campaign expressed no concern over the lightly attended caucus. However, social conservatives had a strong presence in the Kansas Republican party, and the results served to highlight conservative dissatisfaction with the Senator.[38][39][40] Louisiana was much closer, but Huckabee won there as well, beating McCain by less than one percentage point.[41] McCain was declared the winner of the Washington caucuses, where 18 delegates were at stake. The February 19 primary would determine the other 19 delegates from the state. When McCain was declared the winner of the caucuses, with a lead of only 242 (3,468 to 3,226) over Huckabee and counting stopped with only 87% of the precincts reporting[42], Huckabee's campaign indicated that they would challenge the results.[43][44]

Next up was the Potomac primary on February 12, with voting in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia. McCain swept the three races and took all 113 delegates which were at stake.[45][46] The next day, the McCain camp released a memo calling a Huckabee win "mathematically impossible". In truth, however, it was not impossible. In fact, if Huckabee failed to reach 1191 delegates but succeeded in keeping McCain from reaching 1191, then the result would have been a brokered convention.

With the media declaring McCain the "presumptive nominee", McCain began to focus on the Democrats, particularly leading candidate Barack Obama, in anticipation of the general election.[47]

The day after McCain's Potomac sweep, the Kansas City Star published a list of people who have been mentioned as possible McCain running mates, if he secured the nomination.[48]

On February 14, Mitt Romney officially endorsed McCain and asked his approximately 280 delegates to support him at the national convention. If all or most of Romney's delegates backed McCain, it would give him nearly enough to win the nomination, with several large states still yet to vote. Despite these developments, Huckabee vowed to stay in the race. "I may get beat, but I’m not going to quit," he said.[49][50] A few days later, McCain was endorsed by former President George H.W. Bush, in a move intended to shore up his support among base party elements.[51]

On February 19, McCain continued his winning ways, picking up wins over Huckabee in the Wisconsin primary and the Washington state primary.[52] McCain and Barack Obama engaged in a pointed exchange over Al-Qaeda in Iraq on February 27.[53]

Alleged inappropriate involvement with lobbyists

On February 20 2008, The New York Times broke a story involving a possible romantic affair eight years earlier between McCain and lobbyist Vicki Iseman, both of whom deny the allegations. The relationship allegedly existed during McCain's 2000 presidential campaign. In separate interviews with The New York Times, two former associates of McCain said they "became convinced" that a romantic relationship existed and warned him that he was risking his campaign and his political career. Both said McCain acknowledged behaving inappropriately and that he pledged to keep his distance from Iseman. The associates (whose names were not identified) said they had become disillusioned with the senator, spoke independently of each other and provided details that were corroborated by others.[54]

A McCain spokesperson characterized the story as a "hit and run smear campaign" and "gutter politics" and went on to say, "It is a shame that the New York Times has lowered its standards [...]"[55] Subsequent reports, however, have contradicted McCain's account of the events.[56]

The story is seen as a net boon to McCain, as many on the right wing, itself very wary of the New York Times, flocked to McCain's defense. The reaction, led by conservative pundits like Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh, was so severe, that the New York Times set up an ad-hoc question-and-answer session, where the editors fielded questions and comments electronically submitted by the public.

The closeness of the relationship recalls McCain's earlier and continued contacts with corporate lobbyists including Charles Keating, Richard Davis, and Charlie Black. Black and Davis, like Iseman, are telecom lobbyists. Davis ran McCain's previous presidential campaign and Black is a senior advisor to McCain's 2008 campaign.[57]

March contests - Wrapping up Republican nomination

President George W. Bush and Senator McCain at the White House March 5, 2008 following McCain's March 4 primary sweep.

CNN had cancelled a debate originally scheduled for February 28th, saying that McCain was the "presumptive nominee". Mike Huckabee challenged John McCain to a debate before the March 4 primaries, and the Values Voter coalition came through in the clutch, arranging for a debate hall and inviting both McCain and Huckabee, as well as Rep Ron Paul to participate in a March 3 debate event. After Governor Huckabee had accepted the invitation, Senator McCain said that he had a prior commitment and begged off. Huckabee had previous success with rural and Evangelical Christian voters. Huckabee was endorsed by Dr. James Dobson. McCain received an endorsement from Pastor John Hagee (which he later renounced on May 22nd). On March fourth, Super Tuesday 2, McCain managed to win a large number of Evangelical voters along with his usual independent and veteran supporters. John McCain officially clinched the Republican presidential nomination on March 4 2008, sweeping the primaries in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, and Vermont.[58] That night, Mike Huckabee withdrew from the race and endorsed McCain.[58]

Template:2008 Republican presidential primaries delegate counts

Early primaries and caucuses

Date State Type District level delegates At-large delegates State party delegates Bonus delegates Total size of delegation Delegate selection process
January 3 2008 Iowa caucus 15 10 3 12 40 County/state convention[59]
January 5 2008 Wyoming convention[60] 3 10 3 12 12/28 [12/14] Note County/state convention[61]
January 8 2008 New Hampshire primary 6 10 3 5 24 [12] Note Statewide proportional[62]
January 15 2008 Michigan primary 45 10 3 2 60 [30] Note District-level winner-take-all (WTA) + at-large/bonus proportional[63]
January 19 2008 Nevada caucus 9 10 3 12 34 County/state convention[64]
South Carolina[65] primary, open 18 10 3 16 47 [24] Note District-level WTA + at-large/bonus WTA[66]
January 22 2008 Louisiana caucus, closed
non-binding, just selection of district delegates
21 0 0 0 21/57[67][68] District by state convention + at-large/bonus by state convention unless 50%+ threshold met. Non-binding caucus to avoid stripping.
January 25-February 5 2008[69] Hawaii caucus, closed 6 10 3 1 20 state convention[70]
January 29 2008 Florida primary, closed 75 10 3 26 114 [57] Note Statewide WTA[71]
February 1-February 3 2008[72] Maine caucus, closed 6 10 3 2 21[73] District/state convention[74]

GOP February 5 rule

Under Republican National Committee rules, no state may hold its primary before February 5. Five states - Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida - moved their primaries ahead and were subsequently stripped of one-half of their apportioned delegates by the RNC.[75] This punishment was eventually the same as Democratic procedures though that party originally decided to strip all delegates from offending states Michigan and Florida before seating half. The Republican rules did not affect Iowa, Nevada and Louisiana, because those states do not technically choose their delegates until district or state conventions that occur after February 5. The Iowa county and state conventions are scheduled to be held on March 15 and June 14 2008 respectively. The Nevada state convention is scheduled for April 26 2008. The Louisiana caucuses selected 105 state-delegates to the state convention on February 16 in Baton Rouge.

Super Tuesday

Many states have moved the dates of their primaries or caucuses up to February 5 (Super Tuesday). With almost half the nation voting on that date it acts as a quasi-"National Primary". This has also been dubbed "Super Duper Tuesday,"[76] and "Tsunami Tuesday".[77]

State Type District-level delegates At-large delegates State party delegates Bonus delegates Total size of delegation Delegate selection process
Alabama primary, open 21 10 3 14 48 modified WTA district + proportional at-large/bonus[78]
Alaska caucus, closed 3 10 3 13 29 District/state convention[79]
Arizona presidential preference election[80] 24 10 3 16 53 Statewide WTA[81]
Arkansas primary, open 12 10 3 9 34 modified WTA district + proportional at-large/bonus (WTA if 50%+)[82]
California primary, closed 159 10 3 1 173 WTA district + WTA at-large/bonus[83]
Colorado caucus, closed 21 10 3 12 46 district/state convention[84]
Connecticut primary, closed 15 10 3 2 30 Statewide WTA[85]
Delaware primary, closed 3 10 3 2 18 Statewide WTA[86]
Georgia primary, open 39 10 3 20 72 WTA district + WTA at-large/bonus[87]
Illinois presidential preference primary+delegate election, open[88] 57 10 3 0 70 District delegate election + unpledged state delegates
Massachusetts primary, modified open 30 10 3 0 43 statewide proportional[89]
Minnesota caucus, open 24 10 3 4 41 BPOU[90]/district/state convention[91]
Missouri primary, open 27 10 3 18 58 statewide WTA[92]
Montana invited caucus[93][94] 3 10 3 9 25[95] Statewide WTA
New Jersey primary, modified open 39 10 3 0 52 Statewide WTA[96]
New York primary, closed 87 10 3 1 101 Statewide WTA[86]
North Dakota caucus, closed 3 10 3 10 26 Statewide Proportional[97]
Oklahoma primary, closed 15 10 3 13 41 district WTA + at-large/bonus WTA
Tennessee primary, open 27 10 3 15 55 District proportional (WTA 50%+) + At-large/bonus proportional (WTA 50%+)[98]
Utah primary, modified open 9 10 3 14 36 Statewide WTA[99]
West Virginia convention, modified open 9 10 3 8 18/30[100] multiple ballot WTA[101][102]
Totals 627 210 63 181 1,069/1,081

After Super Tuesday

Date State Type District-Level Delegates At-Large Delegates State Party Delegates Bonus Delegates Total Size of Delegation Delegate Selection Process
February 9 2008 Kansas caucus, closed 12 10 3 14 39 district WTA + at-large/state party/bonus WTA[103]
Washington caucus 27 10 3 0 18 of 40[104] county/state convention[105]
Louisiana primary 0 20 3 13 20 of 57[67] WTA if 50%+ threshold met, otherwise uncommitted
February 12 2008 District of Columbia primary 0 16 3 0 19 DC-wide WTA[106]
Maryland primary 24 10 3 0 37 District WTA + at-large WTA[107]
Virginia primary 33 10 3 17 63 Statewide WTA[108]
February 19 2008 Wisconsin primary 24 10 3 3 40 district WTA + at-large/bonus/party WTA[109]
Washington primary 27 10 3 0 19 of 40[104] district WTA + proportional at-large[105]
February 23 2008 American Samoa caucus 0 6 3 0 9 county/state convention[110]
Northern Mariana Islands caucus 0 6 3 0 9 county/state convention[111]
February 24 2008 Puerto Rico caucus 0 20 3 0 23 Puerto Rico-wide WTA [112] [113]
March 4 2008 Ohio primary 54 10 3 21 88 District WTA + at-large WTA[114]
Rhode Island primary 6 10 3 1 20 Delegate names on ballot[115]
Texas open primary 96 10 3 31 140 district modified WTA + statewide WTA if 50%+ [116]
Vermont primary 3 10 3 1 17 Statewide WTA[117]
March 8 2008 Guam caucus 0 6 3 0 9 county/state convention[118]
March 11 2008 Mississippi primary 12 10 3 14 39 District WTA + at-large/bonus WTA [119]
April 5 2008 U.S. Virgin Islands caucus 0 6 3 0 9 county/state convention[120]
April 22 2008 Pennsylvania primary 57 10 3 4 74 district delegate selection + unpledged at-large/party delegates
May 6 2008 Indiana primary 27 10 3 17 57
North Carolina[121] primary 39 10 3 17 69
May 13 2008 Nebraska[121] primary 9 10 3 11 33
May 20 2008 Kentucky primary 18 10 3 14 45
Oregon primary 15 10 3 2 30
May 27 2008 Idaho primary 6 10 3 13 32
June 3 2008 South Dakota primary 3 10 3 11 27
New Mexico primary 9 10 3 10 32
988

Results

Opinion polling

Notes and references

  1. ^ Final GOP delegate count. Last Updated- August 28, 2008
  2. ^ "McCain clinches GOP nomination, CNN projects". CNN. Retrieved 2008-03-04. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  3. ^ Dougherty, Danny (2007-10-17). "Presidential primary and caucus dates" (PDF). Stateline.org. Retrieved 2007-10-18. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  4. ^ Caucus/Convention. "The Green Papers Election 2000, 2004, 2008 Glossary". Thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved 2008-09-05.
  5. ^ "RCP- Election 2008 Iowa Caucus".
  6. ^ "CNN Election Center 2008: Primary Exit Polling".
  7. ^ McCain, Romney in tight Michigan race Reuters, Jan. 12, 2008
  8. ^ Keith Naughton, Who Does Detroit Like in '08? Newsweek.com, Jan. 11, 2008
  9. ^ Michigan could be key to Republican Presidential nomination AFP, Jan. 9, 2008
  10. ^ Dick Polman, Republican presidential race is no clearer after New Hampshire Salt Lake Tribune, Jan. 9, 2008
  11. ^ Ryan Mauro, The New Hampshire Surprise: Edwards Makes Clinton the Front-Runner Global Politician, Jan. 10, 2008
  12. ^ a b c Janet Hook (2008-01-13). "Belt-tightening times for GOP campaigns". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved 2008-01-13. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  13. ^ Leslie Wayne, Michael Cooper (2008-01-12). "Top Giuliani Aides Forgo Salaries to Help Big Push". The New York Times. Retrieved 2008-01-13. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  14. ^ Paul Steinhauser (2008-01-11). "Poll: New Hampshire win rockets McCain to front-runner status". CNN.com. Retrieved 2008-01-13. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  15. ^ "McCain's Misleading Mailer". Factcheck.org. 2008-01-15. Retrieved 2008-01-15. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  16. ^ Today on the Presidential Campaign Trail Associated Press, Jan. 14, 2008
  17. ^ McCain on that new mailer v. Romney MSNBC.com, Jan. 14, 2008
  18. ^ a b c Jonathan Weisman (2008-01-16). "Romney Took McCain's Words for a Spin". The Washington Post. Retrieved 2008-01-16. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  19. ^ Romney claims victory in Michigan CNN.com, Jan. 15, 2008
  20. ^ "South Carolina, Nevada could crown new front-runners". cnn.com. Retrieved 2008-01-18.
  21. ^ Ron Paul Campaign Concerned About Incorrect Caucus Location Information Provided by the Nevada State Republican Party
  22. ^ "Candidates Head for Next Battlegrounds". Retrieved 2008-01-20.
  23. ^ "With South Carolina win, McCain is front-runner again". Retrieved 2008-01-20.
  24. ^ "Giuliani and the G.O.P.'s 11th Commandment". Retrieved 2008-01-20.
  25. ^ "With a Crowded Republican Field, Candidates Set Sights on Florida". Retrieved 2008-01-20.
  26. ^ "Florida Republican Primary Polling". Retrieved 2008-01-29.
  27. ^ McCain gains Schwarzenegger endorsement Jan. 31, 2008
  28. ^ a b Elisabeth Bumiller, Michael Luo (2008-02-01). "McCain Wins Schwarzenegger Endorsement, and Romney Delivers Barb". The New York Times. Retrieved 2008-02-01.
  29. ^ a b Perry Picks McCain Day After Giuliani's Withdrawal Dallas Morning News, Jan. 31, 2008
  30. ^ Schwarzenegger Endorses John McCain Forbes.com, Jan. 21, 2008
  31. ^ February 5: Super Tuesday CNN.com
  32. ^ Liz Sidoti, McCain Faces Conservative Test Associated Press, Feb. 6, 2008
  33. ^ Former Governor Mitt Romney Addresses CPAC 2008
  34. ^ Romney's exit hands McCain the nomination LA Times, Feb. 8, 2008
  35. ^ Into the lion's den Arizona Republic, Feb. 8, 2008
  36. ^ Text of Sen. John McCain's Remarks to CPAC LA Times, Feb. 7, 2008
  37. ^ Former Governor Mike Huckabee Addresses CPAC 2008
  38. ^ Kansas Republican Delegation 2008, TheGreenPapers.com
  39. ^ Kansas highlights McCain's difficulty with conservatives USAToday.com, Feb. 9, 2008
  40. ^ For McCain, Losses Signal Challenges NY Times, Feb. 11, 2008
  41. ^ Results: Louisiana CNN.com
  42. ^ Washington Caucus | Washington Primary | Results - America’s Election HQ
  43. ^ Results: Washington CNN.com
  44. ^ Huckabee Challenges Washington Caucus Results FoxNews.com, Feb. 10, 2008
  45. ^ Obama, McCain sweep Potomac primaries CNN.com, Feb. 12, 2008
  46. ^ February 12 - Multi-State Events CNN.com
  47. ^ McCain rolls on, takes aim at Obama Politico.com, Feb. 13, 2008
  48. ^ "Who should be McCain's running mate?". Kansas City Star. 2008-02-13. Retrieved 2008-02-14.
  49. ^ Romney Endorses McCain for Republican Nomination Bloomberg.com, Feb. 14, 2008
  50. ^ Romney Endorses McCain for President, Huckabee Vows to Stay in the Race FoxNews.com, Feb. 14, 2008
  51. ^ "Former President Bush to endorse McCain". Associated Press for MSNBC. 2008-02-15. Retrieved 2008-02-22.
  52. ^ "Obama, McCain extend winning streaks". CNN. 2008-02-20. Retrieved 2008-02-20.
  53. ^ "McCain, Obama in heated exchange over Iraq". CNN. 2008-02-27. Retrieved 2008-02-28.
  54. ^ Rutenberg, Jim (2008-02-21). "For McCain, Self-Confidence on Ethics Poses Its Own Risk". The New York Times. Retrieved 2008-02-20. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
  55. ^ Hazelbaker, Jill (2008-02-20). "Press Release: Statement By Communications Director Jill Hazelbaker". John McCain. Retrieved 2008-02-20.
  56. ^ "Broadcaster disputes McCain's account" (from the Washington Post). Los Angeles Times. February 23, 2008. Retrieved 2008-02-25. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  57. ^ McCain depends on lobbyists
  58. ^ a b "McCain wins GOP nomination". CNN. 2008-03-04. Retrieved 2008-03-04.
  59. ^ Election Guide 2008 - Presidential Election - Politics
  60. ^ Precinct caucuses were held in December to elect delegates to the county conventions, and precinct captains (one man and one woman) are automatic delegates to the county convention, where the delegates will be selected.
  61. ^ Wyoming GOP begins choosing delegates - Decision '08 - MSNBC.com
  62. ^ Election Guide 2008 - Presidential Election - Politics
  63. ^ Election Guide 2008 - Presidential Election - Politics
  64. ^ "Election Guide 2008 - Presidential Election - Nevada Caucus Results". The New York Times. 2008-02-06.
  65. ^ The South Carolina Republican Party has moved their primary to January 19, before Florida's January 29 primary, in order to retain their status as the "first in the south" primary. Because of this, NH, WY, and IA are all expected to move their primaries earlier as well. Source: Preston, Mark (2007-08-09). "South Carolina GOP moves up primary, adds to 2008 scramble". CNN.
  66. ^ http://www.scgop.com/About/Default.aspx?SectionId=421 rule 11(b)
  67. ^ a b District-level delegates are elected through the caucus/convention process on January 22, while at-large delegates are selected on February 9 if a majority is selected by the primary voters, or on February 16 by the state convention delegates if no candidate wins a majority.
  68. ^ http://www.shreveporttimes.com/assets/pdf/D9949021223.PDF
  69. ^ Caucuses are spread out based on Hawaii State House of Representatives district number. http://www.gophawaii.com/caucus.html
  70. ^ Berg-Andersson, Richard E. "Hawaii Republican Delegation 2008". The Green Papers.
  71. ^ Ambinder, Marc (2007-10-22). "Florida: Two Men, 57 Delegates". The Atlantic.
  72. ^ Caucuses are scheduled around the state for one of the three days. http://www.mainegop.com/FlexPage.aspx?area=caucus2008
  73. ^ In Maine, the state parties set the date of their Presidential preference caucuses, and the Maine GOP moved its caucuses to this date; see Official Maine GOP Schedule
  74. ^ Maine Republican Party :: About Us
  75. ^ Ohlemacher, Stephen (2007-10-22). "GOP considers delegate cut for 5 states". Yahoo!News. Retrieved 2007-10-22. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  76. ^ Schneider, Bill (2007-02-07). "It could all be over after 'Super Duper Tuesday'". CNN. Retrieved 2007-06-03. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  77. ^ Chuck Todd (2007-05-10). ""Will Tsunami Tuesday be an Afterthought?"". {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  78. ^ Alabama Republican Delegation 2008
  79. ^ Republican Party of Alaska
  80. ^ AG Opinions - December 3, 1999
  81. ^ FOXNews.com - Giuliani May Not Need Early States - Politics | Republican Party | Democratic Party | Political Spectrum
  82. ^ [1][dead link]
  83. ^ Votes, contributors make California a key player in 2008 - CNN.com
  84. ^ [2][dead link]
  85. ^ Office of the Secretary of the State
  86. ^ a b Newhouse News Service - Giuliani Eyes Winner-Take-All Primaries
  87. ^ http://www.gagop.org/docs/2007gagoprules.pdf
  88. ^ http://www.elections.il.gov/downloads/ElectionInformation/PDF/delegate_alt.pdf
  89. ^ State Republican Committee dumps winner-take-all policy - The Boston Globe
  90. ^ Basic Political Organizational Unit, the second level hierarchy (above precinct) of the Minnesota Republican Party.
  91. ^ Republican Party of Minnesota
  92. ^ wcbstv.com - Rudy Giuliani Might Not Need Early States For Republican Nomination
  93. ^ Approximately 3,000 party leaders and grassroots activists, and other pre-credentialed persons, will be permitted to vote.
  94. ^ [3][dead link]
  95. ^ Montana GOP Approves Caucus
  96. ^ Giuliani campaign scores big victory in N.J. procedural vote | Politicker NJ
  97. ^ North Dakota Republican Caucus 2008
  98. ^ Tennessee Republican Delegation 2008
  99. ^ Giuliani's Nomination Strategy - Real Clear Politics - Mid Term Elections - Elections 2008 - TIME
  100. ^ West Virginia will select its eighteen at-large Delegates on February 5 at a state party convention, but then select its nine district delegates and three unpledged delegates during the party primary on Tuesday, May 13.
  101. ^ A runoff is held amongst the top three candidates, and if no candidate receives a majority, a runoff is held amongst the top two remaining candidates, with the winner receiving all 18 at large delegates.
  102. ^ wvgopconvention.com[dead link]
  103. ^ Kansas Gop Caucus :: Summary Of Delegate Selection
  104. ^ a b The Washington State Republican Party will select eighteen of its delegates based on party caucuses on February 9, nineteen based on the state primary on February 19, and three party officers as automatic delegates.
  105. ^ a b Washington Republican Delegation 2008
  106. ^ http://www.dcgop.com/DCRCPrimaryPlan.pdf
  107. ^ http://www.elections.state.md.us/candidacy/documents/GOP_Delegate_Materials.pdf
  108. ^ Virginia Republican Delegation 2008
  109. ^ Constitution
  110. ^ The Republican Source
  111. ^ The Republican Source
  112. ^ McCain Store | Home | 888.864.2794
  113. ^ The Republican Party of Puerto Rico
  114. ^ [4][dead link]
  115. ^ http://www.sec.state.ri.us/elections/ppp/ppp_rep08sample.pdf
  116. ^ int80-3.indd
  117. ^ http://www.vtgop.org/About/Default.aspx?SectionId=218, rule 11(i)
  118. ^ The Republican Source
  119. ^ Mississippi Republican Delegation 2008
  120. ^ The Republican Source
  121. ^ a b States that are considering or in the process of moving their primary or caucus.