Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
 

logo
Organization type Intergovernmental Committee
Abbreviation IPCC
management Korea SouthSouth Korea Hoesung Lee
(since October 2015)
Founded November 1988
Headquarters Geneva , SwitzerlandSwitzerlandSwitzerland 
ipcc.ch (English)

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC , Intergovernmental Committee for Climate Change ), often referred to in German as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , was set up in November 1988 by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as an intergovernmental institution in order to summarize the state of scientific research on climate change for political decision-makers with the aim of providing a basis for science-based decisions without giving recommendations for action. The seat of the IPCC Secretariat is in Geneva ( Switzerland ), 195 governments are members of the IPCC, in addition more than 120 organizations are registered as observers of the IPCC.

The main task of the committee is to collate the scientific basis and the worldwide state of research on the effects of global warming and its risks as well as mitigation and adaptation strategies and to evaluate them from a scientific point of view. To this end, the IPCC appoints thousands of scientists from all over the world. These prepare the status reports of the IPCC. So far, the IPCC has published five progress reports and more than ten special reports as well as guidelines for the preparation of greenhouse gas inventories.

The progress reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are considered to be the most credible and well-founded presentation of the scientific, technical and socio-economic research status on the climate and its changes as well as on ways of dealing with it. In 2007, the IPCC was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize together with former US Vice President Al Gore .

Overview and methodology

The IPCC does not conduct any research itself , but on its behalf experts collate the results of research from various disciplines, including climatology , social sciences and technology . It provides a coherent representation of this material in so-called status reports, the IPCC Assessment Reports .

The progress reports of the IPCC consist of three volumes, each of which is produced by a working group. Working group 1 deals with the scientific principles of climate change, working group 2 deals with the vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change and its effects. It also describes ways in which people can adapt to global warming. Working group 3 shows political and technological measures to reduce climate change. In each working group, several hundred experts from all over the world work for about three years on a report of more than a thousand pages each. Special reports are created in the same way as progress reports, but cover a particular topic in great detail.

The status reports go through a multi-stage assessment process (so-called peer review ). Comments, criticism and suggestions are processed by the authors in three successive review rounds. The Fifth Assessment Report received tens of thousands of comments from hundreds of researchers and governments; independent review editors , so-called review editors , ensure that the revisions take everything into account appropriately.

Policy Makers Summaries, which are included in all Progress Reports and Special Reports, are adopted sentence by sentence by governments in a plenary session chaired by the academics. The government representatives make sure that the statements are complete, understandable and balanced. Only information from the underlying reports may be used. The scientific authors have the final say as they decide whether the wording proposed by the governments is correct. The plenary approved the overall report including the executive summary. Through this process, governments acknowledge the scientific statements of the IPCC reports.

The reports and expert comments are confidential during the preparation and appraisal. Once a report has been published, all documents can be viewed.

The IPCC made much-cited statements about future climate changes in its status reports. These statements, based on different scenarios, called representative concentration paths (RCPs), have for years formed the basis of scientific and, above all, political and economic discussions about the expected extent of global warming and have made a significant contribution to decision-making.

tasks

The IPCC does not provide any advice or policy recommendations. On behalf of the IPCC, experts from all over the world compile the current state of knowledge on the various aspects of natural and man-made climate change and evaluate it from a scientific point of view. The authors draw on published knowledge, if possible from peer-reviewed scientific journals. In doing so, they state the degree of trust they have in their statements based on the evidence available and their degree of agreement; if possible, they also make quantitative probability statements. The reports of the IPCC go through a multi-stage assessment process.

The IPCC is concerned with a. with the following topics:

In its work, the IPCC endeavors to improve the participation of developing and emerging countries in IPCC activities.

organization

The IPCC is a United Nations institution . It is both a scientific body and an intergovernmental committee. The seat of the council is Geneva. Currently (2016) 195 countries are members, governments of countries that are members of the United Nations or the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). New teams of authors are put together for each report, scientists from all over the world who contribute to the work of the IPCC as authors and reviewers without additional payment. The IPCC also has more than 100 accredited observers from international organizations and civil society.

The member states of the IPCC meet in plenary about once a year. Hundreds of experts and representatives from governments and recognized observer organizations take part. The plenary takes decisions on management matters, procedural rules for the preparation of reports and the work program. It also elects the chairmen of the IPCC and its working and project groups as well as the other board members. Completed reports are adopted there and topics for future ones are decided.

The 34 board members are recognized experts and support the scientific work of the IPCC. An executive committee ensures that decisions of the plenary are implemented. This committee has about a dozen members and is composed of the chairmen and vice-chairmen of the IPCC as well as the chairmen of the working groups and a project group. The heads of the IPCC secretariat and offices are there as advisors.

Three working groups prepare the status report and the special reports:

  • Working group I deals with the scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change.
  • Working group II deals with the effects of climate change, the vulnerability of socio-economic and ecological systems to climate change and the possibilities of adaptation.
  • Working group III deals with technological and socio-economic measures to reduce climate change.

Two co-chairs each coordinated the work of each of the three working groups, supported by seven or eight vice-chairs and one office each.

A standing project group, The Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories , deals with the development of methodologies and the standardization of procedures for the creation of inventories of emission data of greenhouse gases in the individual countries, e.g. B. for the Framework Convention on Climate Change . The project group is coordinated by two co-chairs, supported by 12 vice-chairs and an office.

The IPCC also maintains a data center, the IPCC Data Distribution Center , coordinated by the project group on data and scenarios, the Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Analysis.

Chair

The first chairman of the IPCC was the Swedish meteorologist Bert Bolin from 1988 to 1996 , followed by the British chemist Robert Watson . From 2002 the Indian economist Rajendra Kumar Pachauri was chairman of the IPCC. After his premature resignation in 2015, the previous Vice President Ismail El Gizouli took over the acting management. In October 2015, the Korean economist Hoesung Lee was elected as the new chairman.

Reports

The IPCC publishes reports in four categories:

  • Progress reports ( Assessment Report ): Comprehensive and objective scientific assessment of the state of research on climate change, mostly in three volumes (Scientific Principles / Impacts, Adaptation, vulnerability / climate change);
  • Special Reports ( Special Report ): A progress report on a particular topic;
  • Methodology reports ( Methodology Reports ): methodologies for creating greenhouse gas inventories .
  • Technical reports ( Technical Papers ): summary of certain content from status reports or special reports;

Status report (world climate report)

The status reports of the ICC ( English Assessment Report , in German often also "World Climate Report") are published at irregular intervals:

Special reports

By 2018 the IPCC had issued a total of 12 special reports. These include the reports on land use , land use change and forestry published in 2000 and on the emission scenarios used in the third and fourth assessment reports, as well as the special report on carbon capture and storage published in 2005 . In April 2011, the IPCC published a special report on renewable energy sources and mitigating climate change. A special report on “Managing Extreme Event Risk and Disaster Risk to Promote Adaptation to Climate Change” (SREX) was published in March 2012.

So far published u. a. the following special reports:

budget

The work of the IPCC is supported by the IPCC Trust Fund. In 2009 the IPCC spent around 6.9 million CHF or the equivalent of 5.3 million euros on its work . These funds are used in particular to finance the collaboration of experts from developing countries (e.g. through travel subsidies) and the publication and translation of IPCC reports.

The IPCC Trust Fund receives voluntary contributions from the member states. In 2009, the latter amounted to CHF 441,772 from Germany, CHF 30,151 from Austria, CHF 100,000 from Switzerland and CHF 1,578,900 from the USA. On the other hand, the founding organizations UNEP and World Meteorological Organization as well as the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) make contributions. UNEP and WMO also help fund the IPCC secretariat.

The offices of the working and project groups are financed by the countries in which the co-chairs work, mainly industrialized countries. These often also finance authors' meetings or plenary sessions.

The IPCC Chair, Vice Chairs and Co-Chairs and the authors of the IPCC reports do not receive any additional payment for their work.

80% of the member countries did not participate in the IPCC budget. In 2017, the United States withdrew from funding the IPCC. Their contribution of around $ 2 million had made up 45% of the organization's budget the previous year. The European Commission and five individual states then agreed to compensate for the shortfall through increased contributions.

Controversy

Comparison of the measured sea level rise between 1970 and 2010 with the projections of the IPCC since 1990: Reality is at the upper end of the IPCC scenarios of the time.
The melting of the sea ice in the Arctic is proceeding faster than all climate models on which the 4th Assessment Report of the IPCC of 2007 would lead one to expect.

Since the reports of the IPCC form the basis of global climate policy, the IPCC is often criticized by organized climate change skeptics and deniers who try to discredit it by accusing it of being politically influenced. Contrary to the claim, often made by climate “skeptics”, that climate scientists and the IPCC are too “alarmist” (ie exaggerating the extent and consequences of global warming), scientific studies have concluded that the IPCC reports tend to address some aspects of the tend to underestimate global warming. In addition, the status reports are not only more conservative, but also more cautious and cautious than the statements made by climate change deniers. This phenomenon is justified by the fact that IPCC authors do not want to offer a target for allegations by climate change deniers, while the latter, in contrast, formulate their statements more aggressively in order to be able to attack better.

At the beginning of 2010, 277 Dutch scientists signed an open letter in which they defended the IPCC and protested against the discrediting of climate research in the public debate. The error in the fourth IPCC report there had been a "disproportionate excitement" ( disproportionate commotion given). The IPCC is not infallible, but its operations were "transparent and carefully" ( transparent and thorough ). The basic results of the IPCC would remain valid despite the errors. At the same time, the scientists demanded that the committee should admit errors even more quickly in the future.

In addition, scientists recommended that the processes be further improved. So suggested u. a. The director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Chairman of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Federal Government on Global Change Hans Joachim Schellnhuber proposed to optimize the "structure of the council and the design of the working groups" in order to avoid similar errors in the future after the discovery of a faulty glacier forecast in the fourth assessment report avoid.

Conflicts of interest used to be an issue because of the political influence on the final drafting of the summaries. In connection with the fourth assessment report, it became known that some governments (including the USA and China ) had implemented a significant weakening of the draft report presented by the scientists.

The Australian think tank Breakthrough - National Center for Climate Restoration (BNCCR) published its updated report What Lies Beneath in 2018 , in which it referred to statements by Kevin Anderson about the possible disastrous consequences of warming of 4 ° C or more. It is also stated that under pressure from politics and economic interests, the IPCC has assessed climate change conservatively and downplayed major risks. Rather, anthropogenic climate change is an immediate existential threat to humanity; Emergency response measures are essential in order to adequately counter this threat. International climate policy must realign climate research from the perspective of risk management.

PBL report on the fourth IPCC assessment report

Against the background of criticism of errors in the fourth assessment report published in 2007, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon commissioned the InterAcademy Council (IAC), an international association of science academies , to investigate the work of the IPCC. The IAC then submitted a report in summer 2010. In it, he certified that the IPCC had done a good job and made several reform recommendations at the same time. In addition to setting up a management team, u. a. proposed that the IPCC Secretariat be given an Executive Director.

Against the background of the debate about errors in the fourth IPCC assessment report, the Dutch Environment Minister Jacqueline Cramer commissioned the national environmental agency PBL on January 29, 2010 to carry out a comprehensive assessment of the 32 conclusions (listed in the synthesis volume) on the regional effects of global warming and the underlying conclusions Chapter of Working Group II. The PBL report published on July 5, 2010 came to the conclusion that the conclusions in the synthesis volume would not be undermined by errors found. However, several conclusions contained statements that had no basis in the chapters or the sources cited therein. There were also isolated inadmissible generalizations as well as a lack of transparency and credibility of sources. So ended the IPCC by declining revenues in millet , groundnut and cowpea in Niger to declining yields of crops in the Sahel and declining cattle productivity in Argentina to declining livestock productivity in South America . Overall, slight deficiencies were found in five and severe deficiencies in three of the 32 conclusions.

Overall, the PBL report came to the conclusion that the conclusions of the fourth IPCC report were still admissible and overall well founded. In addition to the errors, it was criticized that in the summary of the results of Working Group II in the synthesis volume, negative prognoses were picked out and positive prognoses were not mentioned without sufficiently clarifying this “risk-oriented” selection process.

“Leaks” in the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report

According to the procedural rules of the IPCC, the draft reports and the expert comments are confidential during the three-stage assessment. After the reports have been published, all documents will be made available to the public.

IPCC projection of temperature rise and precipitation in the 21st century (September 2013)

In December 2012, blogger and climate change denier Alec Rawls published an unauthorized preliminary version of the fifth assessment report on the Internet. He had gained access to it by registering as an external reviewer for the IPCC. From a sentence that the influence of cosmic rays was not yet fully understood, he concluded that this would shake previous climate theory. Various experts disagreed with this. On the contrary, the key message is that the influence of cosmic rays is presumably negligible. Overall, the evidence on anthropogenic global warming would have increased (the probability estimate for this is now 95% instead of 90% in the last report). The expected rise in sea level will probably also be corrected upwards.

At the beginning of November 2013, another draft version of the IPCC report (part 2) was made public. Because of the "leaks", various parties (including the InterAcademy Council , KNMI , some of the scientists involved) called for the entire design process to be made public while the reports were being drawn up.

literature

  • Silke Beck: The climate experiment and the IPCC: interfaces between science and politics in international relations . Metropolis-Verlag, Marburg 2009, ISBN 978-3-89518-771-1 .
  • Ulrike Bolle: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): An international legal investigation . Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen 2011, ISBN 978-3-16-151665-8 .

Web links

Commons : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  - Collection of Images, Videos and Audio Files

Individual evidence

  1. ipcc.de: Agreements for the translation of English technical terms from climate science into German ( Memento from March 2, 2017 in the Internet Archive ) German IPCC coordination office, accessed on December 30, 2016
  2. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (PDF) German IPCC coordination office, accessed on January 4, 2019 .
  3. a b ipcc.ch: List of member states of the IPCC (PDF), accessed on December 29, 2016
  4. a b ipcc.ch: list of observer organizations to the IPCC , accessed on 29 December 2016
  5. ipcc.ch: History of the IPCC ( Memento from January 18, 2017 in the Internet Archive ), accessed on December 29, 2016
  6. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( Memento from December 29, 2016 in the Internet Archive ) Website of the German IPCC coordination office, accessed on December 29, 2016.
  7. ipcc.ch: Publication and Data , accessed on December 29, 2016.
  8. a b Stefan Rahmstorf , Hans Joachim Schellnhuber : The climate change. Diagnosis, prognosis, therapy. Beck, Munich 2007, p. 88.
  9. Assessment Reports website of the IPCC, accessed on December 29, 2016.
  10. ^ Special Reports website of the IPCC, accessed on December 29, 2016.
  11. a b Appendix A to the Principles Governing IPCC Work, PROCEDURES FOR THE PREPARATION, REVIEW, ACCEPTANCE, ADOPTION, APPROVAL AND PUBLICATION OF IPCC REPORTS ( Memento of November 20, 2013 in the Internet Archive ) IPCC website, accessed on December 29, 2016 .
  12. a b Procedure for preparing the IPCC reports ( Memento from December 29, 2016 in the Internet Archive ) Website of the German IPCC coordination office, accessed on December 29, 2016.
  13. Assessment of the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report website of the IPCC, accessed on December 29, 2016.
  14. Approval of an IPCC report website of the IPCC, accessed on December 29, 2016.
  15. German translations of the summaries for political decision-makers ( memento of December 29, 2016 in the Internet Archive ) German IPCC coordination office, accessed on December 29, 2016.
  16. Fifth Assessment Report: review comments and responses IPCC website, accessed December 29, 2016.
  17. RCP scenarios (scenarios for the 5th IPCC assessment report) , GERICS Climate Service Center Germany / Hamburger Bildungsserver, accessed on September 30, 2019.
  18. Principles governing IPCC work: policy relevant but not policy prescriptive ( Memento from January 19, 2017 in the Internet Archive ) IPCC website, accessed on December 31, 2016.
  19. a b c Principles and Procedures of the IPCC ( Memento of July 22, 2017 in the Internet Archive ) IPCC website, accessed on December 29, 2016.
  20. Guidance Note on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties Website of the IPCC, accessed December 30, 2016.
  21. Bureau of the IPCC ( Memento of July 20, 2017 in the Internet Archive ) IPCC website, accessed on December 29, 2016.
  22. Executive Committee of the IPCC ( Memento of July 20, 2017 in the Internet Archive ) IPCC website, accessed on December 29, 2016.
  23. ^ IPCC Secretariat and Technical Support Units of the Working Groups IPCC website, accessed December 29, 2016.
  24. ^ Website of the IPCC Working Group I , accessed December 29, 2016.
  25. ^ Website of the IPCC Working Group II , accessed on December 29, 2016.
  26. ^ Website of the IPCC Working Group III , accessed on December 29, 2016.
  27. Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories website.Retrieved December 29, 2016.
  28. ^ Website of the IPCC Data Distribution Center , accessed December 29, 2016.
  29. ^ Website of the Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Analysis , accessed December 29, 2016.
  30. ipcc.ch: IPCC Agrees on Acting Chair after RK Pachauri steps down . Press release of February 24, 2015, accessed on March 16, 2015.
  31. ^ IPCC elects Hoesung Lee of Republic of Korea as Chair. (PDF) Press Release. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, October 6, 2015, archived from the original on October 7, 2015 ; accessed on October 7, 2015 .
  32. ipcc.ch: Sixth Assessment Report cycle : "The 43rd Session of the IPCC held in April 2016 agreed that the AR6 Synthesis Report would be finalized in 2022 in time for the first UNFCCC global stocktake when countries will review progress towards their goal of keeping global warming to well below 2 ° C while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5 ° C. The three Working Group contributions to AR6 will be finalized in 2021. "(" The 43rd session of the IPCC in April 2016 agreed that the AR6 synthesis should be completed in 2022, for the UNFCCC's first global inventory of whether the countries are making progress have in view of their goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 ° C, with efforts being made to limit it to 1.5 C. The contributions of the three working groups will be finalized in 2021. "), accessed on December 30 2016.
  33. IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In: ipcc.ch. January 14, 2015, accessed October 9, 2018 .
  34. IPCC / Watson et al. (Ed.) (2000): IPCC Special Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change And Forestry (online) ( Memento of October 30, 2010 in the Internet Archive )
  35. IPCC / Nakicenovic et al. (Ed.) (2000): IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios , see (online) ( Memento of January 14, 2009 in the Internet Archive )
  36. IPCC / Metz et al. (2005): IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (PDF; 23.9 MB) ( Memento from February 10, 2010 in the Internet Archive )
  37. IPCC / Edenhofer et al. (Ed.) (2012): IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation , https://www.ipcc.ch/report/srren/ , English version, accessed on December 30, 2016.
  38. Ottmar Edenhofer: There are alternatives. - What a determined German energy policy could look like now. zeit.de April 9, 2011
  39. ^ IPCC / Field et al. (Ed.) (2012): IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation , https://www.ipcc.ch/report/srex/ , English version, accessed on December 30, 2016 .
  40. a b IPCC Trust Fund Program and Budget, Thirty-second Session of the IPCC, October 11-14, 2010 (PDF; 117 kB)
  41. "Countries to increase financial contributions to the IPCC to cover for US's halt of funding" climateaction.org of September 12, 2019
  42. ^ Riley E. Dunlap, Aaron M. McCright: Organized Climate Change Denial , in: John S. Dryzek, Richard B. Norgaard, David Schlosberg (Eds.). The Oxford Handbook of Climate Change and Society . Oxford University Press 2011, pp. 144-160, especially pp. 150 and 153.
  43. a b Srdan Medimorec, Gordon Pennycook: The language of denial: text analysis reveals differences in language use between climate change proponents and skeptics . In: Climatic Change . tape 133 , no. 4 , 2015, p. 597-605 , doi : 10.1007 / s10584-015-1475-2 .
  44. Steve Vanderheiden: Atmospheric Justice: A Political Theory of Climate Change . Oxford University Press, 2008, ISBN 978-0-19-973312-5 , The Campaign against Climate Science, pp. 32 (Vanderheiden cites as an example attempts by the Global Climate Coalition in 1994 and 1995 to discredit the IPCC and its results, for which, according to him, it spent more than US $ 1 million).
  45. Keynyn Brysse et al .: Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama? In: Global Environmental Change . tape 23 , 2013, p. 327–337 , doi : 10.1016 / j.gloenvcha.2012.10.008 .
  46. Open letter by Dutch scientists on IPCC and errors in Climate Report 2007 , March 30, 2010
  47. Wrong glacier forecast outraged climate researchers . In: Spiegel-Online , January 19, 2010. Last accessed on September 10, 2016.
  48. Axel Bojanowski : Der Klimabasar , in: Die Zeit , February 1, 2007
  49. For example, the American climate researcher Roger A. Pielke criticized in an interview that the main assessments and assessments of the scientific studies on climate change were made by exactly the same people who carried out these studies. ( online ( memento of February 1, 2008 in the Internet Archive )).
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  54. Paragraph 4.2 of Appendix A to the Principles Governing IPCC, PROCEDURES FOR THE PREPARATION, REVIEW, ACCEPTANCE, ADOPTION, APPROVAL AND PUBLICATION OF IPCC REPORTS ( Memento of November 20, 2013 in the Internet Archive ) IPCC website, accessed on December 30, 2016 .
  55. Documents for the assessment of the Fifth Assessment Report , a total of 142,631 comments were processed, IPCC website, accessed on December 29, 2016.
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  59. ^ Dennis Ballwieser : UN Draft: Climate change exacerbates global food shortages . In: Spiegel Online , November 2, 2013, accessed November 4, 2013.
  60. Axel Bojanowski : Farce about UN report: The privy councilor on climate. In: Spiegel Online , August 23, 2013, accessed November 4, 2013.
  61. Justin Gillis: Climate Change Seen Posing Risk to Food Supplies. In: The New York Times , November 1, 2013, accessed November 2, 2013.

Coordinates: 46 ° 13 '23.5 "  N , 6 ° 8' 46.3"  E ; CH1903:  five hundred thousand two hundred eighty-two  /  119907