Presidential election in France 2017

from Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Presidential election 2017 - first ballot
Macron ( EM )
  
24.0%
Le Pen ( FN )
  
21.3%

Fillon ( LR )
  
20.0%
Mélenchon ( FI )
  
19.6%
Hamon ( PS )
  
6.4%
Dupont-Aignan ( DLF )
  
4.7%
Other
  
4.0%
Presidential election 2017 - Second ballot
Macron ( EM )
  
66.1%
Le Pen ( FN )
  
33.9%

The 2017 French presidential election was the eleventh election of the President of the French Republic . The first ballot took place on April 23, 2017; the decisive runoff between the winners of the first ballot, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen , on May 7, 2017. Macron clearly won the election with 66.1% of the valid votes cast and was thus elected President for a term of five years.

Procedure

The French President is directly elected by the people. In the first ballot, a candidate is elected if he receives an absolute majority of the votes cast. If no candidate can achieve this - which has been the case in all presidential elections since 1965 - a run-off election takes place between the two candidates who received the most votes in the first ballot.

Every French citizen who has reached the age of 18 on the day of the election and is entered on the electoral lists is entitled to vote .

Anyone entitled to vote is eligible if they can prove 500 supporter signatures from elected mandate holders (mainly parliamentarians at European, state, regional or departmental level as well as mayors and elected chairmen of higher regional authorities) from at least 30 departments .

Candidates

The following eleven candidates were accepted for election by the Conseil constitutionnel :

In the following, the French parties' search for candidates will be presented, provided they have nominated candidates or are important because they are represented in parliament, even if they have not nominated any candidate. The order is based on the 2012 election results.

Parti Socialiste (PS)

Majorities by department in the first round of the primaries:
  • Benoît Hamon
  • Manuel Valls
  • Arnaud Montebourg
  • Sylvia Pinel
  • Majorities in the second round of the primaries:
  • Benoît Hamon
  • Manuel Valls
  • For the Parti socialiste , the party of the incumbent President François Hollande, Benoît Hamon stood , who was Minister of Education under Hollande in 2014 for half a year and previously an associate minister in the Ayrault government. Hollande himself announced on December 1, 2016 that he would not stand for re-election. Previously, it had long been expected that he would run despite his polling results.

    The candidate was determined in an open area code (primaire citoyenne) , which took place at the end of January 2017 and was also open to applicants from other left-wing parties that are members of the Belle alliance popular . In the first ballot, Hamon received 36.3 percent, a good 5 percentage points more than Valls. Before the second ballot, the retired Arnaud Montebourg , who had been one of the favorites in polls shortly before the primaries, voted for Hamon; Sylvia Pinel, who dropped out with 2 percent for Valls; Vincent Peillon stated that he would not recommend voting. The other two candidates did not comment. In the second ballot, a runoff election, Hamon received 58.9% of the vote.

    Result of the open primaries of the Belle Alliance populaire for the 2nd ballot after counting 97 percent of the polling stations
    candidate 1st ballot 2nd ballot political background
    be right % be right %
    Benoît Hamon 596,647 36.0% 1,161,771 58.9% Parti Socialiste, Member of Parliament, Minister of Education 2014
    Manuel Valls 521.238 31.5% 811,681 41.1% Parti Socialiste, MP, Prime Minister 2014–2016
    Arnaud Montebourg 290.070 17.5% - - Parti Socialiste, Minister of Industry and Economy 2012–2014
    Vincent Peillon 112,718 6.8% - - Parti Socialiste, MEP, Minister of Education 2012–2014
    François de Rugy 63,430 3.8% - - Chairman of the Parti écologiste , Vice-President of the National Assembly
    Sylvia Pinel 33,067 2.0% - - Chairwoman of the Parti radical de gauche , Minister of Commerce and Housing 2012–2016
    Jean-Luc Bennahmias 16,869 1.0% - - Chairman of the Front démocrate
    Blank ballot papers 11,766 0.7% 26,803
    Invalid ballot 10.114 0.6%

    The election management of the primary elections rejected the applications of Gérard Filoche and Fabien Verdier , both members of the party executive committee of the PS, due to a lack of support signatures . Marie-Noëlle Lienemann , Senator , declared her candidacy in March 2016, but withdrew it at the beginning of December 2016. Sidi Hamada-Hamidou , a member of the Parti radical de gauche , who is not mentioned on the list of eligible candidates, had also declared her candidacy .

    The Parti radical de gauche (PRG) suspended its alliance with the Parti Socialiste (PS) in June 2016 and announced that it would probably not take part in their primary elections. In November 2016, she nominated her party leader, Sylvia Pinel, as a presidential candidate without participating in the primaries. Shortly before the application deadline, the PRG party executive decided to take part in the primaries.

    Les Républicains (LR)

    Majorities according to departments in the first election round of the primaries:
  • François Fillon
  • Alain Juppé
  • Nicolas Sarkozy
  • Majorities in the second round of the primaries:
  • François Fillon
  • Alain Juppé
  • For the Republicans ( Les Républicains , LR), the former Prime Minister (2007 to 2012) François Fillon ran . He received around two thirds of the vote in the second round of the open primaries for the right and the center; Alain Juppé received a third. In the first ballot, President Nicolas Sarkozy , who was not re-elected in the 2012 presidential election, was eliminated as the third-placed candidate. The other candidates did not play a significant role in the first ballot. More than four million citizens took part in both ballots, many times the number of members of the parties involved.

    Not only party members of the LR but also candidates from other parties of the center and the right could apply for the primaries ( Primaire ouverte de la droite et du center , open pre-election of the right and the center), provided that they involved certain conditions regarding support Parties, members or officials fulfilled. Participation in the vote was not only open to party members, but to anyone who appeared at the polling station, paid a two-euro fee and signed a “charter of change” declaring that “the republican values ​​of the right and the center are shared and advocates a change so that France can be rebuilt ”.

    Result of the open primaries of the right and the center
    candidate 1st ballot 2nd ballot political background
    be right % be right %
    François Fillon 1,883,855 44.1% 2,908,154 66.5% Prime Minister 2007–2012 (President Sarkozy)
    Alain Juppé 1,220,382 28.6% 1,466,407 33.5% Mayor of Bordeaux, Prime Minister 1995–1997 (President Chirac)
    Nicolas Sarkozy 882.687 20.7% - - French President 2007–2012
    Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet 109,305 2.6% - - Environment, Transport and Housing Minister 2010–2012 (Fillon Cabinet)
    Bruno Le Maire 101,766 2.4% - - Minister of Agriculture 2009–2012 (Fillon Cabinet)
    Jean-Frédéric Poisson 62,135 1.5% - - Member and President of the Parti chrétien-démocrate (France)
    Jean-François Copé 12,750 0.3% - - former group leader, general secretary and president of the UMP
    Invalid votes 9,835 12,988

    The primary elections committee rejected three other applications for the presidential candidacy because the organizations that submitted the proposals would not meet the requirements for participation in the primary elections: Michel Guénaire (Société Civile 2017) , Frédéric Lefebvre (Nouveaux Horizons) , former State Secretary, and Mourad Ghazli (Mouvement pour l'équité et le développement) . Geoffroy Didier , Vice-President of the Regional Council of Île-de-France , Henri Guaino , Member of the National Assembly, Nadine Morano , former Deputy Minister for Vocational Training and Jacques Myard , Member of the National Assembly, did not submit their applications because they did not have the necessary number reached by supporters.

    Front National (FN)

    As in 2012, party leader Marine Le Pen applied for the Front National . Your application was undisputed within the FN.

    La France insoumise (FI, Parti de Gauche and Parti communiste)

    For the Parti de Gauche , their party leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon took up position, who in 2012 was a candidate for the Front de gauche , an alliance made up of the Parti de Gauche and Parti communiste français , who was fourth in the first ballot. Mélenchon said that the Front de Gauche no longer existed and that he himself was a non-partisan candidate for the La France insoumise movement .

    The Parti communiste français supported Mélenchon despite the end of the alliance, but carried out its own election campaign. This was preceded by a lengthy internal party discussion. Before the PCF's congress in June 2016, its chairman, Pierre Laurent , spoke out in favor of a joint candidate for a left alternative (a joint candidate for the left parties). Laurent indicated a preference for the candidacy of the former Minister of Economics Arnaud Montebourg (PS); other party members supported Mélenchon's candidacy. At the beginning of November 2016, a PCF party conference voted in favor of its own candidate, thus overriding the position of party chairman Laurent, who had spoken out in favor of Mélenchon's support shortly before the party conference, by a narrow majority. This decision in turn was overruled in a ballot at the end of November 2016 by the members, who voted 53.6 percent in favor of Mélenchon's support.

    Centrist parties

    At the Mouvement démocrate (MoDem) it was initially unclear whether there would be a presidential candidacy. François Bayrou , chairman of MoDem, supported Alain Juppé's presidential candidacy for Republicans. Should this not be nominated, Bayrou's own candidacy was considered likely. In February 2017, Bayrou declared his support for Emmanuel Macron.

    The vice-president of MoDem, Jean Lassalle , announced his candidacy in March 2016. He resigned from the party and founded the Resistons! .

    The Union des démocrates et indépendants (UDI) considered participating in the Republican primary; In a strike vote, however, two thirds of the voting members rejected this. For a long time it remained unclear whether the UDI would put up its own candidate, support a Republican candidate or support Emmanuel Macron's candidacy . Most of the members of the UDI voted for Alain Juppé, who supports many of their political goals, in the primary elections, but also supported François Fillon, who was further right politically after his victory in the primary elections. The UDI withdrew its support after Fillon upheld his candidacy against earlier promises despite being summoned to court for the corruption allegations against him and his wife. The Alliance Centriste , a member party of the UDI, announced in February 2016 that it would take part in the presidential election. But she did not name a candidate.

    En Marche (forward)

    Emmanuel Macron , former economic advisor to François Hollande and Minister for Economic Affairs from 2014 to 2016 , founded the En Marche party in April 2016 and left the government in late August 2016 to focus on the presidential campaign. On November 16, 2016, he officially declared his candidacy. Macron took up social liberal and pro-European positions and said he was neither left nor right . He was supported in the election by the centrist MoDem .

    Other parties

    Ballot for the 2nd ballot of the Primaire der Grünen

    The first candidate for Europe Écologie Les Verts , the French Greens, was MEP Yannick Jadot . He prevailed against MEP Michèle Rivasi in an open primary in the second ballot . In the first ballot, MEP Karima Delli and former Minister Cécile Duflot were eliminated. Given the poor prospects for the leftist candidates, Jadot entered negotiations with Benoît Hamon, the PS candidate, and finally announced on February 23 that he would withdraw his candidacy in favor of Hamon. Hamon, who had already made ecology one of his central election campaign topics in the primary elections, had included further green items in his election program. The agreement was accepted by the 17,000 voting sympathizers of the Greens on February 26th with 80% approval.

    For the sovereignist party Debout la France their party leader Nicolas Dupont-Aignan stood .

    The Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste was nominated by Philippe Poutou , its candidate from 2012. The candidate for the Lutte ouvrière was Nathalie Arthaud , who was also a candidate in 2012. For the movement LaRouche belonging Solidarity and Progress occurred as early as 2012 Cheminade on. For the sovereignist party Union populaire républicaine its chairman François Asselineau stood . This failed in 2012 due to the necessary support signatures.

    First ballot

    Survey

    Average values ​​of the survey results since February 2017

    From 2015 to November 2016, the polls for the first ballot almost consistently predicted a relative majority for Marine Le Pen (Front National) as the most likely outcome, with a share of the vote of just under 30 percent. Only when Alain Juppé was accepted as a candidate of the LR did he overtake Le Pen more often in the surveys; in a survey from April 2016 Emmanuel Macron also succeeded , who was tested as a candidate of the PS without any other PS candidates. Juppé was also the only potential candidate for whom voting shares above 30 percent were regularly predicted in some scenarios (i.e. different combinations of other candidates); the other potential LR candidates who were asked in surveys were between 20 and 30 percent.

    After the primaries of the right and the center in November 2016, Fillon Le Pen was able to clearly overtake Le Pen in the polls for some time and was around 30 percent before losing again towards the end of the year. For the incumbent President François Hollande , values ​​of around 15 percent were forecast before his retirement, with Macron and Hollande participating in some cases even below 10. At the beginning of January 2017, polls saw a three-way battle for entry into the second ballot, with Le Pen and Fillon were seen easily before Macron.

    After the primaries of the Belle Alliance populaire , Benoît Hamon was able to catch up with the three leaders at short notice at the end of January and beginning of February, but fell back significantly in February or March. At the same time, the polls for François Fillon fell significantly, while Emmanuel Macron in particular was able to increase. The results have changed a lot since the end of January 2017, so that reliable statements were difficult; in particular, Fillon lost in the wake of allegations about a sham employment of his wife, while Macron received significant gains after the withdrawal of François Bayrou . In the primaries of both major parties, candidates won who were given little chance shortly before the primaries. Other factors also make predictions difficult.

    Polls from March 2017 saw Macron and Le Pen head to head with 24 to 25 percent each. Le Pen was still slightly ahead until the middle of the month, but after the first TV debate on March 20, 2017, Macron was able to catch up with Le Pen more and more often or overtake them. Behind were Fillon (17 to 20 percent), Mélenchon (14 to 15 percent) and Hamon (8 to 11 percent).

    Surveys from April 17-19, 2017 forecast a relatively tight result in the first ballot. Emmanuel Macron was seen just ahead of Marine Le Pen (22 to 23 percent) with 23 to 24 percent. While Macron was able to stabilize again after the second TV debate on April 4 after brief slight losses, Le Pen did not succeed. At various institutes, it reached its worst value since 2012 with 22 percent. In contrast, Mélenchon's values ​​increased significantly to 18 to 19 percent. Fillon was consistently at 19 to 20 percent. Hamon still seemed to have no chance with 6 to 8 percent.

    Results

    French consulate in
    Tokyo on election day
    candidate be right in %
    Emmanuel Macron 8,656,346 24.01
    Marine Le Pen 7,678,491 21.30
    François Fillon 7,212,995 20.01
    Jean-Luc Mélenchon 7,059,951 19.58
    Benoît Hamon 2,291,288 6.36
    Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1,695,000 4.70
    Jean Lassalle 435,301 1.21
    Philippe Poutou 394.505 1.09
    François Asselineau 332,547 0.92
    Nathalie Arthaud 232.384 0.64
    Jacques Cheminade 65,586 0.18
    Eligible voters 47,582,183 100.00
    Voters 37.003.728 77.77
    Non-voting 10,578,455 22.23
    Voters 37.003.728 100.00
    Valid votes 36.054.394 97.43
    Blank or invalid ballot papers 949.334 2.57
    Official end result

    Of the 96 departments in metropolitan France ( France métropolitaine ), Le Pen won 47, Macron 41, Fillon 5 ( Orne , Mayenne , Sarthe , Haute-Savoie , Lozère ) and Mélenchon 3 ( Seine-Saint-Denis , Dordogne , Ariège ).

    Second ballot

    The second ballot was scheduled for May 7, 2017. There , the eighth President of the Fifth French Republic was elected from the two winners of the first round of voting, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen . Le Pen would have been the first woman and Macron the youngest president in this office. The election campaign ended on May 5th, and both candidates were banned from campaigning after this date.

    Positioning of the losers of the first ballot

    François Fillon , who narrowly missed the runoff election with 20.01% of the vote, immediately after the first projections of the first round of voting, called on his supporters to vote for Macron in order to prevent a president from the ranks of the Front National. Jean-Luc Mélenchon , fourth in the first ballot with 19.58%, rejected a clear positioning. On April 25, his campaign team only recommended "not giving a vote to the Front National"; Mélenchon made a personal statement on the evening of April 28th and announced that he would vote himself. He ruled out a vote for Le Pen, but did not announce how he would vote (abstention or Macron) and still refused to give an election recommendation. Benoît Hamon , fifth in the first round of voting with 6.36%, took a clear position and called on his supporters to vote for Macron.

    Notwithstanding his previous rejection of the Front National (FN) , Nicolas Dupont-Aignan announced an electoral alliance with Marine Le Pen on April 28 , which he u. a. secure the office of Prime Minister in the event of Marine Le Pen's election; his support for the FN led to considerable disputes within his party Debout la France and the resignation of prominent party members. The other five failed candidates, who together received 4.04% of the vote, either called for an invalid vote or did not comment.

    Russian hackers disrupt the election campaign

    As in the American election campaign in 2016 , there were disruptive maneuvers from the hacker scene. On May 5, the eve of the official 40-hour information blackout before the second ballot, allegedly compromising data and documents from the Macrons camp were posted online by hackers with a Russian background who were posted on various social networks under the keywords #MacronLeaks or #Macrongate Were massively disseminated, especially by right-wing American circles (but also by FN supporters); these were not recorded by the French media due to the news blackout and had no influence on the outcome of the election.

    Survey

    Development of the survey results from February to April 2017: Macron - Le Pen

    Polls before the first round of voting

    For the Macron – Le Pen constellation, all cross-institute surveys since 2016 predicted a clear victory for Macron, with around 58 to 65 percent of the vote. These values ​​had hardly changed until the decision on the first ballot on April 23, 2017. Up until then, the surveys were created as a “theoretically possible” runoff constellation.

    Polls since the first round of voting

    All polls saw Emmanuel Macron ahead of Marine Le Pen. After polls immediately after the first ballot saw Macron in the lead with up to 64 percent, all polls predict Macron's victory with 59-61 percent less than a week before the runoff election. Macron's lead increased slightly after the two candidates' televised debate on May 3; he received about 61-63% of the vote.

    In French presidential elections, the voting behavior of the voters of the failed candidates in the first round has traditionally been of decisive importance for the outcome of the election. Pollsters saw this as a clear advantage for Emmanuel Macron. In particular, the approximately 2.3 million voters of Benoît Hamon tended strongly to vote for Macron: According to polls on May 4th and 5th, 72–81% said they wanted to vote for Macron, and only 2–7% said Le Pen to a lesser extent for the 7.2 million voters of François Fillon (44–54% Macron, 21–32% Le Pen) and the approximately 7 million of Jean-Luc Mélenchon (Macron 46–54, Le Pen 11– 14). The 1.7 million voters of Dupont-Aignan (Macron 22-26, Le Pen 26-45), however, clearly tended to Le Pen. The 100% missing values ​​indicate the percentage of voters who intended to abstain. to vote invalid or to throw in an empty ballot paper ( vote blanc ).

    After the television duel for the runoff election on May 3, Macron received another 2–3% boost over Le Pen in various surveys.

    date Institute Emmanuel Macron Marine Le Pen
    05/05/2017 Ifop 63% 37%
    05/05/2017 Harris 62% 38%
    05/05/2017 Elabe ( BFM TV ) 62% 38%
    05/05/2017 Odoxa 62% 38%
    05/05/2017 OpinionWay 62% 38%
    05/05/2017 Ipsos 61.5% 38.5%
    05/04/2017 Ifop 61% 39%
    05/04/2017 OpinionWay 61% 39%
    05/03/2017 Ifop 60% 40%
    05/03/2017 Ipsos 59% 41%
    05/03/2017 OpinionWay 60% 40%
    05/02/2017 BVA 60% 40%
    05/02/2017 Elabe (BFM TV) 59% 41%
    05/02/2017 OpinionWay 60% 40%
    05/02/2017 Ifop 59.5% 40.5%
    05/01/2017 Cantar Sofres 59% 41%
    05/01/2017 Ifop 59% 41%
    date Institute Emmanuel Macron Marine Le Pen
    05/01/2017 OpinionWay 61% 39%
    04/30/2017 Ipsos 60% 40%
    04/28/2017 BVA 59% 41%
    04/28/2017 Ifop 60% 40%
    04/28/2017 Odoxa 59% 41%
    04/28/2017 OpinionWay 60% 40%
    04/27/2017 Ifop 60.5% 39.5%
    04/27/2017 Harris 61% 39%
    04/27/2017 OpinionWay 59% 41%
    04/26/2017 Ifop 60.5% 39.5%
    04/26/2017 OpinionWay 60% 40%
    04/25/2017 Ifop 61% 39%
    04/24/2017 Elabe (BFM TV) 64% 36%
    04/24/2017 Ifop 60% 40%
    04/24/2017 OpinionWay 61% 39%
    04/23/2017 Ipsos 62% 38%
    04/23/2017 Harris 64% 36%

    Results

    Voting cards for the runoff election
    candidate be right in %
    Emmanuel Macron 20,743,128 66.10
    Marine Le Pen 10,638,475 33.90
    Eligible voters 47,568,693 100.00
    Voters 35,467,327 74.56
    Non-voting 12.101.366 25.44
    Voters 35,467,327 100.00
    Blank ballot papers 3,021,499 8.52
    Invalid ballot 1,064,225 3.00
    Valid votes 31,381,603 88.48
    Official end result

    Marine Le Pen only achieved a majority in two departments: Aisne and Pas-de-Calais .

    Web links

    Commons : Presidential election in France in 2017  - collection of images, videos and audio files

    Individual evidence

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