State election in Bavaria 2018

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Final result
     (72.3% turnout - 1.0% invalid votes)
 %
40
30th
20th
10
0
37.2
17.6
11.6
10.2
9.7
5.1
3.2
1.7
1.6
2.2
Otherwise.
Gains and losses
compared to 2013
 % p
 12
 10
   8th
   6th
   4th
   2
   0
  -2
  -4
  -6
  -8th
-10
-12
-10.5
+9.0
+2.6
+10.2
-10.9
+1.8
+1.1
-0.4
-0.4
-2.4
Otherwise.
Template: election chart / maintenance / notes
Remarks:
d 2013 not started
      
A total of 205 seats

The state election in Bavaria 2018 was the 18th state election in Bavaria after the Second World War and took place on October 14, 2018. At the same time as the election to the Bavarian State Parliament , the seven Bavarian District Days were elected.

At 72.3%, there was the highest turnout since 1982 . While the CSU achieved their worst result since 1950 and the SPD their worst result in a state election in Bavaria since 1893, the AfD, which started for the first time, and the FDP, which resigned in 2013, made it into the state parliament. The Greens and the Free Voters each achieved their best results in a state election in Bavaria. The former were clearly the second strongest force and won six direct mandates for the first time .

Election date and preparation deadlines

According to the Bavarian Constitution, the election is to be set on a Sunday "at the earliest 59 months, at the latest 62 months" after the previous state election , which took place on September 15, 2013. An election date between August 19 and November 11, 2018 was possible. In practice, the elections since 1978 have always been between mid-September and mid-October. The Bavarian state government proposed on January 9, 2018 to October 14, 2018 as the election date forward and put him officially after hearing the parliament parties on 20 February determined.

The key date for determining the number of inhabitants, which are decisive for the distribution of the 180 state parliament mandates between the seven Bavarian administrative districts and a possible redistribution of the electoral districts, was June 15, 2016 (33 months after the election of the previous state parliament). On this basis, the Bavarian Ministry of the Interior had to submit a district report to the state parliament up to 36 months after the election. This took place on September 6, 2016.

Delegates to the internal assembly meetings could not be appointed until 43 months after the previous election at the earliest, i.e. since April 16, 2017. The actual listing of constituency candidates was permitted since July 16, 2017. The parties and other organized groups of voters who have not been continuously represented in the Bavarian State Parliament or in the German Bundestag since their last election on the basis of their own election proposals ( CDU , CSU , SPD , Free Voters , Greens , FDP , Left , AfD ) had to give their intention to participate Report the state returning officer by the 90th day before the election, i.e. by July 16, 2018 at the latest. The actual election proposals and any necessary supporting signatures had to be submitted by August 2, 2018.

Starting position

Distribution of seats in the state parliament in December 2017
     
A total of 180 seats

Since the state elections in Bavaria in 2013 , the CSU again had an absolute majority of the mandates, as it did from 1962 to 2008. Due, among other things, to the poor performance of the CSU in the 2017 federal election , Prime Minister Horst Seehofer ( CSU ) finally announced in December 2017 that he was not going to run for the top candidacy in the state elections in Bavaria in 2018 and also resigned as Prime Minister in March 2018 before the end of the election period from. The previous Bavarian Finance Minister Markus Söder was elected as the new CSU top candidate and later also in the state parliament as Bavarian Prime Minister .

Top candidates of the parties represented in the state parliament before the election

CSU SPD Free voters Alliance 90 /
The Greens
Markus Soeder (cropped) .jpg
MJK 19254 Natascha Kohnen (SPD Federal Party Congress 2018) .jpg
Hard but fair 2019-02-25-5560.jpg
Schulze Katharina picture archive Bavarian State Parliament, photo Eleana Hegerich.jpgLudwig Hartmann 2013.jpg
Markus Söder Natascha Kohnen Hubert Aiwanger Katharina Schulze and Ludwig Hartmann
Ballot for the second vote in constituency 104 of the constituency of Upper Bavaria

Leading candidates from other parties

Leading candidates from parties that were not represented in the state parliament before the election:

Parties

Political parties and electoral groups that won less than 1.25% of the total valid votes in the last state election had to collect support signatures for their election proposals .

The constituency committees decided on August 17, 2018 whether to approve the nominations. A total of 18 parties and voter groups took part in the election, 12 of them in all seven administrative districts. These are (in the order on the ballot papers; the respective abbreviation in brackets):

Electoral system

In contrast to the federal election law, the first votes are also taken into account in the distribution of seats by proportional representation. There is no nationwide equalization of proportions, the distribution of seats takes place within the seven administrative districts , which are referred to in the electoral law as electoral districts . Parties and groups of voters who get at least 5% of the total votes (sum of first and second votes) in Bavaria participate in the distribution of seats. The constituencies are divided into electoral districts, in each of which one member is directly elected. The number of constituencies is around half of the seats in the constituency.

Constituency and constituency changes

In the statutory electoral district report in September 2016, the state government stated that the numerical distribution of the 180 state parliament mandates among the seven administrative districts, which also form the constituencies, had to be changed due to changes in the population. It was recommended that a list mandate previously awarded in the constituency of Lower Franconia be awarded to the constituency of Upper Bavaria.

Within Upper Bavaria, with the additional mandate, the electoral districts in the state capital Munich were redesigned, as two - Giesing and Milbertshofen - exceeded the average population by more than 15 percent. For the 2018 election, Upper Bavaria now has 31 constituencies, 9 of which are in the state capital.

Seats and constituencies are distributed as follows:

Seats * voting
circles
Upper Bavaria constituency 61 31
Lower Bavaria constituency 18th 9
Upper Palatinate constituency 16 8th
Upper Franconia constituency 16 8th
Middle Franconia constituency 24 12
Lower Franconia constituency 19th 10
Constituency of Swabia 26th 13
total 180 91
* Increase possible through overhang and compensation mandates

TV duels

A TV duel between Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU) and Ludwig Hartmann (Alliance 90 / The Greens) took place on September 26th. The Bavarian Television founded the party selection resulting in Bavaria trends of 12 September, after which CSU and Greens could hope in choosing the most votes. SPD general secretary Uli Grötsch described this decision as “completely absurd.” On September 28th, a broadcast followed with representatives of the other five parties whose survey results were above or near the five percent hurdle : Natascha Kohnen (SPD), Hubert Aiwanger ( Free voters), Martin Sichert (AfD), Martin Hagen (FDP) and Ates Gürpinar (left). The first broadcast was moderated by BR editor-in-chief Christian Nitsche , while Ursula Heller was co-moderator on the second broadcast .

Result

Majorities of constituencies (first votes): CSU Greens


Result of the state election of October 14, 2018
Political party First
votes		 Second
votes		 Overall
votes		 Sum
in percent		 Difference
to 2013 		Seats
(total) 		Difference
to 2013 		Direct
mandates 		Difference
to 2013
Valid votes /
total seats		 6,796,249 6,768,498 13,564,747 100.0% - 205 +25 91 +1
CSU 2,495,186 2,550,895 5,046,081 37.2% −10.5% 85 −16 85 −4
GREEN 1,196,575 1,195,781 2,392,356 17.6% + 9.0% 38 +20 6th +6
FREE VOTERS 809.666 763.126 1,572,792 11.6% + 2.6% 27 +8 0 0
AfD 701.384 687.238 1,388,622 10.2% + 10.2% 22nd +22 0 0
SPD 680.180 628,898 1,309,078 9.7% −11.0% 22nd −20 0 −1
FDP 353,800 336.699 690.499 5.1% +1.8% 11 +11 0 0
THE LEFT 220.031 217.857 437,888 3.2% +1.1%
BP 122.266 109,465 231.731 1.7% −0.4%
ÖDP 111,212 100,739 211,951 1.6% −0.5%
PIRATES 23,900 35,245 59,145 0.4% −1.5%
The party 18,561 40,535 59.096 0.4% + 0.4%
courage 17,992 27,498 45,490 0.3% + 0.3%
Animal welfare party 11,616 29,281 40,897 0.3% + 0.3%
V party³ 15,266 19,243 34,509 0.3% + 0.3%
THE FRANKS 17,075 14,378 31,453 0.2% −0.5%
Health research 1.006 6,744 7,750 0.1% + 0.1%
The humanists 159 3.234 3,393 0.0% + 0.0%
LKR 374 1,642 2.016 0.0% + 0.0%

The CSU won 85 of the 91 electoral districts, the Greens six (five in Munich and one in Würzburg). In every constituency except Lower Franconia there was at least one overhang mandate. The CSU received a total of 10 overhang mandates, the other parties 15 compensation mandates (FW 5, Greens 4, SPD 4, AfD 1, FDP 1). This enlarged the state parliament from 180 to 205 seats.

The turnout of 72.3 percent was 8.7 percentage points higher than in 2013 (plus almost 850,000 voters; including 0.4 percent increase in the number of eligible voters). Thus, more than a quarter of those eligible to vote did not take part in the election. One percent of the votes cast were invalid (average of first and second votes).

Exhaustion of total votes
Votes without influence on the distribution of seats in the state elections in 2018
Non-voters × 2 (votes) 000000005254784.00000000005,254,784
Votes not cast by voters 000000000001660.00000000001,660
Invalid overall votes 000000000137655.0000000000137,655
Total votes for parties with no seats 000000001165319.00000000001,165,319
Votes without any influence on the distribution of seats overall 000000006559428.00000000006,559,428
Eligible voters × 2 (votes) 000000018958856.000000000018,958,856
Share of votes without influence on the distribution of seats 34.6%

Survey

Sunday question

Last polls before the election

Institute date CSU SPD FW Green FDP left AfD Otherwise.
Research group elections 10/11/2018 34% 12% 10% 19% 5.5% 4% 10% 5.5%
INSA 09.10.2018 33% 10% 11% 18% 5.5% 4.5% 14% 4%
Research group elections 05.10.2018 35% 12% 10% 18% 5.5% 4.5% 10% 5%
Infratest dimap 04.10.2018 33% 11% 11% 18% 6% 4.5% 10% 6.5%
GMS 09/27/2018 35% 13% 10% 16% 5% 4% 12% 5%
INSA 09/26/2018 34% 11% 10% 17% 6% 4% 14% 4%
Research group elections 09/21/2018 35% 13% 11% 18% 5% 4% 10% 4%
Infratest dimap 09/12/2018 35% 11% 11% 17% 5% 5% 11% 5%
GMS 09/11/2018 36% 12% 7% 16% 6% 4% 14% 5%
State election 2013 09/15/2013 47.7% 20.6% 9.0% 8.6% 3.3% 2.1% - 8.7%

Older polls

January - August 2018
Institute date CSU SPD FW Green FDP left AfD Otherwise.
INSA 08/28/2018 36% 13% 8th % 15% 6% 3% 14% 5%
Forsa 08/13/2018 37% 12% 8th % 17% 5% 4% 13% 4%
GMS 08/01/2018 39% 12% 8th % 14% 6% 3% 13% 5%
Infratest dimap July 18, 2018 38% 13% 9% 16% 5% 4% 12% 3%
GMS 07/12/2018 39% 12% 7% 14% 6% 3% 14% 5%
Forsa 07/09/2018 38% 12% 8th % 15% 6% 3% 14% 4%
INSA 06/27/2018 41% 13% 6% 13% 5% 3% 14% 5%
Forsa June 25, 2018 40% 13% 8th % 14% 5% 3% 13% 4%
GMS 05/17/2018 42% 13% 7% 12% 5% 2% 13% 6%
Infratest dimap May 2nd, 2018 41% 12% 7% 14% 6% 3% 12% 5%
GMS 04/27/2018 44% 14% 6% 11% 5% 3% 12% 5%
INSA 04/21/2018 42% 13% 6% 13% 7% 3% 13% 3%
GMS March 22, 2018 43% 15% 6% 11% 6% 3% 12% 4%
Forsa 02/25/2018 42% 14% 7% 14% 6% 3% 10% 4%
GMS 02/12/2018 40% 15% 6% 11% 6% 3% 12% 7%
Infratest dimap 10/01/2018 40% 16% 7% 14% 5% 3% 10% 5%
GMS 02/01/2018 39% 15% 7% 10% 7% 3% 12% 7%
State election 2013 09/15/2013 47.7% 20.6% 9.0% 8.6% 3.3% 2.1% nk 8.7%
2013-2017
Institute date CSU SPD FW Green FDP left AfD Otherwise.
INSA 12/13/2017 40% 15% 7% 12% 7% 4% 12% 3%
GMS 11/30/2017 37% 15% 7% 10% 8th % 3% 14% 6%
Forsa 11/10/2017 38% 17% 7% 11% 9% 4% 11% 3%
INSA 05.11.2017 37% 17% 8th % 10% 8th % 4% 13% 3%
GMS October 19, 2017 41% 15% 6% 11% 7% 3% 13% 4%
GMS 02/01/2017 39% 15% 7% 10% 7% 3% 12% 7%
GMS 03/11/2016 44% 18% 6% 10% 6% 2% 9% 5%
GMS 10/13/2016 45% 19% 6% 10% 5% 2% 9% 4%
GMS 09/15/2016 45% 18% 5% 12% 5% 2% 9% 4%
Forsa 07/20/2016 43% 16% 6% 14% 4% 3% 8th % 6%
Infratest dimap 07/17/2016 45% 17% 5% 13% 4% - 9% 7%
GMS 07/14/2016 47% 17% 6% 11% 5% 2% 7% 5%
INSA 06/14/2016 47.5% 17.5% 4.5% 11.5% 3.5% 3.5% 7% 5%
Forsa 06/08/2016 40% 16% 6% 14% 4% 3% 10% 7%
GMS 06/02/2016 48% 17% 6% 10% 5% 2% 8th % 4%
GMS 04/21/2016 48% 16% 6% 10% 5% 2% 9% 4%
GMS 03/17/2016 48% 16% 5% 11% 5% 2% 9% 4%
GMS 02/18/2016 46% 17% 5% 11% 4% 2% 9% 6%
Infratest dimap 13/01/2016 47% 16% 5% 12% 3% 3% 8th % 6%
GMS 04/01/2016 45% 19% 6% 10% 4% 3% 7% 6%
GMS 11/19/2015 46% 18% 5% 11% 4% 3% 8th % 5%
GMS 08/10/2015 46% 18% 6% 12% 6% - 5% 7%
Forsa 07/10/2015 43% 19% 5% 11% 4% 3% 6% 9%
GMS 09/17/2015 49% 20% 6% 10% 5% - 2% 8th %
GMS 07/23/2015 47% 20% 6% 10% 5% - 2% 10%
GMS 06/25/2015 48% 19% 7% 9% 5% 2% 4% 6%
INSA 06/19/2015 46% 20% 8th % 8th % 4% 3% 4% 7%
GMS 05/15/2015 48% 18% 7% 10% 4% - 5% 8th %
GMS 04/16/2015 48% 19% 7% 10% 4% 2% 4% 6%
Forsa 04/08/2015 47% 19% 7% 11% 3% 2% 4% 7%
Infratest dimap 01/14/2015 46% 19% 10% 9% 3% 3% 4% 6%
pollytix 01/12/2015 47% 20% 8th % 10% 2% 3% 6% 4%
GMS December 03, 2014 49% 18% 7% 9% 2% 2% 5% -
Emnid 11/13/2014 48% 18% 9% 9% 2% 2% 5% 7%
Infratest dimap March 16, 2014 46% 18% 12% 11% - - - 13%
Infratest dimap 15/01/2014 49% 19% 9% 10% 4% 2% - 7%
State election 2013 09/15/2013 47.7% 20.6% 9.0% 8.6% 3.3% 2.1% nk 8.7%

course

Trend of mean values ​​by period, as of July 2, 2018
Sunday questions about the Bavarian state election of the institutes GMS (G), Infratest Dimap (D), Forsa (F), INSA (I), Emnid (E) and pollytix (P) as well as the result of the state election 2013.

Hypothetical direct election Prime Minister

Institute date 2017-01-09-Markus Söder-tough but fair-9644.jpg Markus Söder ( CSU ) MJK 19254 Natascha Kohnen (SPD Federal Party Congress 2018) .jpg Natascha Kohnen ( SPD ) Ludwig Hartmann 2013.jpg Ludwig Hartmann ( Greens ) none of the questions asked
Research group elections 10/11/2018 46% 30% - -
44% - 23% -
Research group elections 05.10.2018 54% 24% - 6%
48% - 19% 3%
Research group elections 09/21/2018 50% 26% - 5%
42% - 19% 4%
Infratest dimap May 2nd, 2018 62% 20% - 8th %
Infratest dimap 10/01/2018 55% 25% - 8th %

Political fields relevant to elections

On behalf of the RTL / n-tv trend barometer, Forsa asked the survey participants about the “biggest problems at the state level”. “In Bavaria, 34 percent of those questioned named the CSU and Prime Minister Markus Söder. 28 percent named the issue of refugees, 26 percent the situation on the housing market. "

For the ARD preselection survey, Infratest dimap asked survey participants which topic was very important for their voting decision. In the order of most percentage points, these were school and education policy (55%), nature conservation in Bavaria (46%), creation of affordable housing (45%), reducing injustice in society (41%), security and the police (40 %), Regulation of immigration (39%), the behavior of Horst Seehofer in the federal government (26%), the cooperation between CDU, CSU and SPD in the federal government (21%).

After the election

The previous Prime Minister Markus Söder spoke on election evening of humility in view of the election result, but saw a clear government mandate for the CSU as the strongest party. The CSU chairman Seehofer wanted to take on responsibility in the future and - with the exception of the AfD - offered talks to all other parties elected to the state parliament. After initial exploratory talks three days after the election with top representatives, first of the Free Voters, then the Greens, the CSU Presidium announced a day later that they wanted to start coalition negotiations with the Free Voters immediately, due to the closest content. According to their own statements, the Greens hoped to “unite ecology and economy” with a coalition and criticized the CSU after the explorations had ended quickly for having missed a chance . Prime Minister Söder, on the other hand, stated that differences in content in the areas of asylum and internal security had made coalition negotiations with the Greens impossible, "it wouldn't even have failed due to ecology". The CSU and Free Voters emphasized the similarities as bourgeois parties ; Free childcare and the cancellation of the controversial third runway at Munich Airport were named for the negotiations .

On November 2, 2018, the CSU and the Free Voters agreed on a coalition. Two days later, the board members and parliamentary groups of both parties approved the coalition agreement, and the Söder II cabinet was formed.

Before the election , the Bavarian State Office for the Protection of the Constitution observed some of the 22 members of the AfD because of links to right-wing extremist, Islamophobic or Reich citizenship scenes. When asked by the taz , the office said it was examining whether the observation would be continued because of the “increased threshold for observation of elected officials”.

The new state parliament met for the first time on November 5, 2018. One day later, Markus Söder was re-elected Prime Minister with 110 votes to 89 with three abstentions.

See also

Web links

Commons : State election in Bavaria 2018  - Collection of images, videos and audio files

Individual evidence

  1. ↑ a b c Election to the 18th Bavarian State Parliament in Bavaria on October 14, 2018, final result (PDF; 10.7 MB) . Bavarian State Office for Statistics and Data Processing. Retrieved November 6, 2018.
  2. ↑ Election dates
  3. ^ Spiegel Online : Preliminary final result
  4. ↑ Article 16 (1) sentence 3 Bavarian Constitution
  5. ↑ State Returning Officer Bavaria: Overview of election dates and results , accessed on September 7, 2016
  6. ↑ Election dates
  7. ↑ Bavarian legal and administrative report : State government sets October 14 , 2018 as the date for state elections , report from February 20, 2018
  8. ↑ Article 21 (1) Bavarian State Election Law
  9. ↑ Article 5 (5) Bavarian State Election Law
  10. ↑ Bavarian State Ministry of the Interior, for Building and Transport: District report: Adjustment in the distribution of the seats and the constituencies , press release of September 7, 2016, accessed on September 7, 2016
  11. ↑ State Returning Officer: State Election 2018: Deadlines for the list of applicants
  12. ↑ Article 28 (2) Bavarian State Election Law
  13. ↑ Art. 24 LWG
  14. ↑ Art. 26 LWG
  15. ↑ merkur.de
  16. ↑ rosenheim24.de
  17. ↑ www.oedp.bayern.de
  18. ↑ piratenpartei-bayern.de
  19. ↑ www.welt.de
  20. ↑ Press release of the regional returning officer of August 21, 2018 (PDF; 166 kB)
  21. ↑ Bavarian State Government: Report of the Bavarian State Government on the change in the number of inhabitants in the electoral and electoral districts according to Art. 5 Para. 5 of the State Election Act of September 6, 2016 ( Memento of September 15, 2016 in the Internet Archive ), accessed on 7. September 2016
  22. ↑ Law amending the state electoral law. (PDF) Bavarian State Parliament, March 31, 2017, accessed on March 8, 2018 .
  23. ↑ Schwarz gegen Grün faz.net, September 18, 2018
  24. ↑ a b Election to the 18th Bavarian State Parliament in Bavaria on October 14, 2018 - final result - text, tables, graphs (PDF; 5.6 MB), page 9 . Bavarian State Office for Statistics. December 2019. Retrieved December 15, 2019.
  25. ↑ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf bg bh bi bj bk Wahlrecht.de : Election polls on the state elections in Bavaria .
  26. ↑ RTL / n-tv trend barometer: With its refugee policy, the CSU is harming itself and endangering political stability - AfD rises to 16 percent , on presseportal.de
  27. ↑ RTL / n-tv trend barometer: Most Bavarians reject the policies of Söder and Seehofer - State elections: Only 40 percent for CSU - 71 percent of Germans against going it alone nationally on the refugee issue, on presseportal.de
  28. ↑ Voters check: Bavaria is divided on the Police Task Act, clear majority for Krucifix and against Marx , on sat1.de, accessed on May 17, 2018.
  29. ↑ CSU remains in a low mood - Greens continue to grow , on zdf.de, accessed on October 11, 2018.
  30. ↑ ZDF Politbarometer Extra: CSU still in the deep - Greens remain in second place , on zdf.de, accessed on October 5, 2018.
  31. ↑ ZDF Politbarometer Extra: CSU in Bavaria in the deep - Greens clearly on the upswing , on zdf.de, accessed on September 21, 2018.
  32. ↑ Bavaria May 2018 on behalf of Bayerischer Rundfunk , on infratest-dimap.de, accessed on September 17, 2018.
  33. ↑ Bavaria January 2018 on behalf of Bayerischer Rundfunk and the program “Kontrovers” , on infratest-dimap.de, accessed on January 13, 2018.
  34. ↑ Many Bavarians consider Markus Söder to be a problem. Die Zeit , August 13, 2018, accessed on August 19, 2018 .
  35. ↑ Bavaria see CSU and Söder as a problem. N-TV , August 13, 2018, accessed August 19, 2018 .
  36. ↑ Ellen Ehni : CSU sinks to 33 percent. Tagesschau.de , October 4, 2018, accessed October 5, 2018 .
  37. ↑ Preliminary result: CSU sole rule ended - Greens strong , Bayerischer Rundfunk, October 15, 2018.
  38. ↑ CSU wants to start coalition negotiations with free voters , SZ from October 18, 2018
  39. ↑ The CSU lacked the courage , Green Bavaria , October 19, 2018.
  40. ↑ “It wouldn't even have failed because of ecology” , SZ of October 18, 2018
  41. ^ Coalition talks between CSU and Free Voters begin , BR24 , October 19, 2018.
  42. ^ FAZ: Bavaria's new government is in place
  43. ↑ VS observes AfD MPs. In: taz , October 19, 2018, p. 7.
  44. ↑ Süddeutsche Zeitung: Söder re-elected Prime Minister