State election in Hesse 2018

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2013State election of Hesse 2018next
State vote result
 %
30th
20th
10
0
27.0
19.8
19.8
13.1
7.5
6.3
3.0
3.5
Otherwise.
Gains and losses
compared to 2013
 % p
 10
   8th
   6th
   4th
   2
   0
  -2
  -4
  -6
  -8th
-10
-12
-11.3
+8.7
-10.9
+9.0
+2.5
+1.1
+1.8
-0.9
Otherwise.
      
A total of 137 seats

The election for the 20th Hessian state parliament took place on October 28, 2018. At the same time as the election, 15 referendums were held on constitutional changes approved by the state parliament.

The turnout was 67.3% and was thus 5.9 percentage points lower than in the 2013 state election, which, however, took place at the same time as the general election .

The strongest party was the CDU , which, like the only third-placed SPD, suffered double-digit losses. The CDU achieved its worst result since 1966 . The SPD even had to accept its worst result ever in a Hessian state election. The Greens achieved their historically best result in Hesse and became the second strongest force just ahead of the Social Democrats, and the Greens also won direct mandates for the first time. For the AfD , moving into the Hessian state parliament meant that it is now represented in all 16 state parliaments. The FDP and the Left were fifth and sixth strongest forces, respectively.

The previous black-green state government was thus given the opportunity to continue to govern with one seat majority in parliament. A Jamaica coalition was rejected by the FDP because it was not necessary for the potential coalition partners to form an absolute majority in parliament. In addition, the FDP had ruled out a mathematically possible traffic light coalition with Tarek Al-Wazir as Prime Minister, while the CDU and SPD again showed no interest in a black-red coalition with a one-vote majority after an exploratory meeting. The CDU and the Greens agreed on a new coalition agreement on December 19, 2018, one month after the start of their coalition negotiations. On January 18, 2019, Volker Bouffier was re-elected with a black-and-green one-vote majority and the new ministers were appointed to the Bouffier III cabinet.

Starting position

Distribution of seats in the state parliament in November 2015
     
A total of 110 seats

After the previous state election on September 22, 2013 , the black and green Bouffier II cabinet was formed on January 18, 2014 under Prime Minister Volker Bouffier (CDU) and his deputy Tarek Al-Wazir (Greens) . The CDU emerged from the election as the strongest force with 38.3%, followed by the SPD with 30.7% and the Greens with 11.1%. The Left with 5.2% and the FDP with 5.03% overcame the 5% hurdle , at which the AfD, which first appeared in a state election, failed with 4.1%. The turnout was 73.2%.

Eligible voters in numbers

Called on October 28, 2018 to vote for their 110 members of the state parliament and to take part in referendums on changes to the constitution of the state of Hesse, there were almost 4.4 million voters over 18 years of age. Of these, 9 percent of those eligible to vote were 18 to 24 years old, 27 percent between 25 and 44 years old and 29 percent between 45 and 59 years old. The largest age group at 35 percent were those over 60.

New demarcation of constituencies

For the 2018 state election, the black-green government changed the Hessian state election law. Since the population of a Hessian constituency should correspond as closely as possible to the average population of the constituencies - with a deviation of no more than 25 percent permitted - 18 of the 55 constituencies have been delimited. The reason for this is the enormous influx in the Rhine-Main area and the move to rural areas in northern and eastern Hesse. An average constituency had around 80,000 eligible voters.

Top candidates of the parties represented in the state parliament

(A)Note: Bündnis 90 / Die Grünen and Die Linke have traditionally each put up two top candidates. Tarek Al-Wazir was ranked second on the list for the Greens, just like in 2013 as a candidate for the office of Deputy Prime Minister as a minor coalition partner and, accordingly, as a potential Prime Minister in a coalition led by the Greens.

Parties and state lists

Ballot for the election to the Hessian state parliament on October 28, 2018 using the example of constituency 3 Kassel-Stadt I.

Nominations for election had to be submitted by August 20, 2018. Parties and groups of voters that have not been represented in the state parliament without interruption since the last state elections required 1000 support signatures for their state lists and 50 each for their district election proposals . On August 31, 2018, the state electoral committee decided on the approval of the state lists and in the constituencies the district electoral committee on the approval of direct candidates.

23 parties and electoral associations with a total of 691 list candidates and 413 direct candidates in the 55 constituencies were admitted .

Political party Short name Applicant in first place on
the state list
Electoral
kreisbe-
tors
Number of
applicants on the
state list
Christian Democratic Union of Germany CDU Volker Bouffier 55 110
Social Democratic Party of Germany SPD Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel 55 152
Alliance 90 / The Greens GREEN Priska Hinz (1) 55 60
The left THE LEFT Janine Wissler (2) 55 30th
Free Democratic Party FDP René Rock 55 56
Alternative for Germany AfD Rainer Rahn 55 30th
Pirate Party Germany PIRATES Jürgen Erkmann 8th 29
Free voters FREE VOTERS Engin Eroglu 41 61
National Democratic Party of Germany NPD Daniel Lachmann - 12
Party for work, the rule of law, animal welfare, elite support and grassroots initiative The party Mario Bouffier 18th 63
Ecological Democratic Party ÖDP Angela Binder 6th 9
Gray panthers Gray panthers Alexander Günther - 5
Civil rights movement Solidarity BüSo Alexander Hartmann - 5
Alliance of German Democrats AD Democrats Yüksel Özcelik - 10
Alliance C - Christians for Germany Alliance C Andrea Rehwald - 7th
Basic Income Alliance UBI Gerhard Wagner - 7th
The violets THE VIOLETS Jochem Kalmbacher 2 5
Liberal-Conservative Reformers - The Euro Critics LKR Stephanie Tsomakaeva 1 10
Human world HUMAN WORLD Caffer Abzak 1 2
Party of humanists The humanists Rutger Comes - 10
Health Research Party Health research Dennis Rudolph - 5
Human Environment Animal Welfare Party Animal welfare party Claudia Scharnagl 1 9
V party³ V party³ Alexandra Munir-Muuss 1 4th
Anarchist Pogo Party of Germany APPD - 1 -
Democracy in motion DiB - 1 -
Non-party-bound resident representatives (Free Voting Community Langen ) NEV - 1 -
Ecological left ÖkoLinX - 1 -
All in all 413 691
(1) Tarek Al-Wazir was also the top candidate for the Greens and was considered the party's potential prime minister if the Greens won an election.
(2) Jan Schalauske was also the left's top candidate.

Campaign issues

The dominant election campaign topics were education with a focus on teacher shortages, missed lessons and ailing school buildings, affordable housing in cities, air pollution control and the expansion of local public transport , environmental protection, equality and integration.

Coalition statements

The CDU, SPD, Greens and FDP did not want to clearly commit to any preferred coalition before the election. The discussions about possible coalitions were influenced by the results of the survey, in which, in addition to the previous black-green state government, a grand coalition sometimes no longer received a majority and thus only three-party alliances were possible. The SPD top candidate Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel did not want to answer whether the SPD would elect Tarek Al-Wazir as prime minister after the Greens won the election, while the FDP top candidate René Rock considered it "very difficult to imagine" for a government under leadership to enter the Greens.

The Hessian Prime Minister Bouffier ruled out a coalition with both the Left and the AfD for the CDU. René Rock stated that the FDP will not form a coalition with the AfD and the Left either. Coalitions with the AfD also excluded all other parties represented in the state parliament. In principle, the SPD remained open to a coalition with the left. The Green top candidate Tarek Al-Wazir pointed out that “exclusionism” after the state elections in 2008 led to new elections and therefore explorations with all parties except the AfD for the Greens cannot be ruled out.

Result

The final result was noted on November 16, 2018.

The CDU was the strongest force with 27 percent. It was followed by the Greens and the SPD, each with a result of 19.8 percent. According to the final result, the Greens are the second strongest force with 66 votes ahead.

The black-green state government has a mathematical majority of one seat. A grand coalition or a traffic light coalition also received theoretical majorities of one seat. The CDU achieved 8 overhang seats with 40 direct seats, the other parties a total of 19 compensation seats (6 Greens, SPD 6, AfD 3, FDP 2, Die Linke 2). The state parliament increased to 137 seats. On the basis of the regular parliamentary size of 110 seats, neither the CDU / Greens coalition nor a theoretical CDU / SPD or Greens / SPD / FDP coalition would have received an arithmetical majority.

Election analyzes showed that the CDU and SPD were particularly successful with people of retirement age. Both parties and the Greens were more successful with voters without a migration background than with those with foreign roots; AfD, FDP and Die Linke, on the other hand, achieved better results among voters with a migration background than among those without. Former Union and SPD voters saw the election as an opportunity to punish these parties for federal political reasons; former CDU supporters were more affected than former SPD supporters, who migrated mainly to the Greens.

Hessian state parliament, plenary hall
National votes Constituency votes
agree
completely
% Seats agree
completely
% Direct
MAN
date
Eligible voters 4,372,788 4,372,788 -
Voters 2,942,846 67.3 2,942,846 67.3
Valid votes 2,881,261 97.9 2,873,070 97.6
CDU 776.910 27.0 40 843.068 29.3 40
GREEN 570,512 19.8 29 517.904 18.0 5
SPD 570,446 19.8 29 670.637 23.3 10
AfD 378,692 13.1 19th 362.210 12.6
FDP 215.946 7.5 11 205.384 7.1
THE LEFT 181,332 6.3 9 164,535 5.7
FREE VOTERS 85,465 3.0 88.122 3.1
Animal welfare party 28,095 1.0 471 0.0
The party 18,334 0.6 12.007 0.4
PIRATES 11,617 0.4 3,818 0.1
ÖDP 7,539 0.3 3,232 0.1
NPD 6,173 0.2 - -
Gray panthers 4,870 0.2 - -
Alliance C 3,789 0.1 - -
Health research 3,572 0.1 - -
V party³ 3,553 0.1 145 0.0
UBI 3,031 0.1 - -
AD Democrats 2,971 0.1 - -
The humanists 2,646 0.1 - -
THE VIOLETS 2,403 0.1 373 0.0
HUMAN WORLD 1,600 0.1 74 0.0
LKR 1,340 0.0 139 0.0
BüSo 425 0.0 - -
DiB - - 168 0.0
APPD - - 94 0.0
NEV - - 643 0.0
ÖkoLinX Hessen - - 46 0.0
Total 2,881,261 100 137 2,873,070 100 55

Constituency maps of the state voting shares

Map of direct mandates

After the election

Both the CDU and the SPD explain the massive losses in Hesse with the dissatisfaction of the citizens with the work of the federal government . It is a "memo for the GroKo". The SPD party leader Andrea Nahles sharply criticized the federal grand coalition after the state elections in Hesse. "The state of the government is not acceptable," she said in Berlin. Schwarz-Rot must now present a “binding timetable” for the coming months - if its implementation does not succeed by the federal government's “mid-term review”, the SPD must consider whether it is still “properly” in the grand coalition. The deputy SPD federal chairman Malu Dreyer has also called for changes in her party after the heavy losses of the SPD in Hesse. It had become clear that most voters did not have the impression that the SPD was answering questions about the future.

The chairman of the Mittelstands- und Wirtschaftsvereinigung (MIT) of the CDU / CSU, Carsten Linnemann , demanded consequences from the party chairman and Chancellor Angela Merkel after the heavy losses of the CDU : “Anyone who wants to gloss over this result here in Berlin does not have the signs of the times recognized [...] Our massive loss of votes gives rise to fear that we are still in the process of losing our status as a people's party. ”On the day after the election, Merkel announced that she no longer wanted to run for federal party chairmanship at the federal party conference in December 2018.

Due to the connection with the political fate of Angela Merkel, the state elections also received attention abroad. The New York Times described the election result as a loss of the political center in favor of “far left” and “far right” parties. It led to Chancellor Merkel's “surprising announcement”, which resulted in political instability and a difficult transition phase, which could have a negative impact on the economic prospects of the Eurozone .

Exploratory talks on black-green, grand coalition and traffic light coalition

Immediately after the state elections, the previous coalition partners agreed exploratory talks on a continuation of the black-green coalition. Although the CDU had also invited the FDP for talks, the FDP top candidate René Rock ruled out the formation of a Jamaica coalition because the Christian Democrats and the Greens alone had a narrow majority. Talks about a black-red coalition between the CDU and SPD were also held in the week after the election.

A traffic light coalition was initially ruled out by the FDP Hessen on the grounds that they did not want to elect Tarek Al-Wazir as prime minister. After the follow-up check of the preliminary official final result in Frankfurt am Main, the possibility could no longer be ruled out that the SPD was just ahead of the Greens, the first meeting between the SPD and FDP took place. When the day before the final result was announced, the first joint exploratory meeting with the Greens, SPD and FDP, said the FDP state chairman Stefan Ruppert that, according to his information, the SPD would become slightly stronger than the Greens. Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel stated on the evening after the exploratory meeting that, from his point of view, there would be no topic on which no agreement between the three parties would be possible.

The official final result, announced on November 16, showed that the Greens had 66 votes ahead of the SPD. Since, accordingly, Al-Wazir could claim the office of Prime Minister in a traffic light coalition, the SPD top candidate Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel stated that the SPD does not seek government participation under these conditions and wants to take over the leadership of the opposition in the state parliament.

Black-green coalition negotiations

After the FDP and the SPD did not support the continuation of alternative exploratory talks, the CDU state executive decided unanimously on November 16, 2018 to offer the Greens the possibility of coalition negotiations. On the following day, the state executive of the Greens also unanimously decided to accept the offer of the Christian Democrats. The parties met on November 19, 2018 for the first round of negotiations and set themselves the goal of agreeing a coalition agreement before Christmas. On the night of December 18-19, 2018, the coalition partners successfully concluded their last round of negotiations.

After the bodies of both parties had approved the results, the coalition agreement was signed on December 23, 2018. It bears the title Awakening in Change through Attitude, Orientation and Cohesion and includes among other things:

  • An increase in the police force by 1000, mainly in the prison service.
  • Stricter rules for asylum seekers if they have come into conflict with the law.
  • The further expansion of all-day schools .
  • The increase in subsidies for social housing by half a billion euros.
  • More positions for professors at Hessian universities .

In addition to the post of Prime Minister and Head of the State Chancellery, the CDU has six ministries, and the Greens four. The constituent meeting with the election of a new state government took place on January 18, 2019.

Counting and passing on the election results

After the electoral districts had reported the quick reports to the electoral offices of the cities and municipalities, these offices passed the results on via the constituency management to the WahlWeb portal operated by the Hessian State Statistical Office (HSL) . To do this, the community employees had to enter all the results individually. A direct transfer in electronic form ( XML file ), which was possible in earlier elections, was not offered according to the HSL due to the security requirements of the Federal Office for Information Security (BSI). The municipalities were then able to import the data from the HSL back into their election programs. IT problems at the HSL slowed down the entry of their data into the WahlWeb for hundreds of municipalities between approx. 7.30 p.m. and 9 p.m. , which delayed the determination of the election results at state level by hours. The provisional official election result for Hesse was known on October 29, 2018 at 1:51 a.m. In connection with the technology of the HSL it was possibly also that incorrect results appeared in the WahlWeb in various Frankfurt constituencies .

Error in the preliminary result

In many of Frankfurt's electoral districts there were mishaps such as the swapping of results, rotated numbers or even stacks of votes that were not counted at all when determining the preliminary result. In some districts, the results were only estimated on the evening of the election and only counted precisely when the final election results were determined. The problems may be due to the non-availability of the IT systems. In the meantime it seemed possible that the official final result could show more second votes nationwide for the SPD than for the Greens. Ultimately, the official final result showed that the Greens are nationwide ahead of the SPD in terms of second votes, with a narrow margin of 66 votes.

Differences in the final result compared to 2013

State votes 2018 State votes 2013
provisionally final deviation provisionally final deviation
CDU 776.254 776.910 +656 1,198,889 1,199,633 +744
GREEN 570.260 570,512 +252 348.371 348,661 +290
SPD 570.166 570,446 +280 961.311 961.896 +585
AfD 378.376 378,692 +316 126,419 126.906 +487
FDP 215,642 215.946 +304 157.354 157.451 +97
THE LEFT 181.263 181,332 +69 161,389 161,488 +99

Although the discrepancies between the final and the provisional results of the state elections were perceived by the media as unusual due to the close race between the Greens and the SPD, the 2018 provisional result was overall more accurate than the 2013 state elections. As in previous elections, the number of votes from all the parties represented in the state parliament increased, in particular because initially invalid votes were counted as valid in the exact counting.

Survey

Sunday question

Last polls before the election

Institute date CDU SPD Green left FDP AfD Otherwise.
Research group elections 10/25/2018 28% 20% 20% 8th % 8th % 12% 4%
INSA 23.10.2018 26% 21% 21% 8th % 7% 13% 4%
Infratest dimap October 18, 2018 26% 21% 20% 8th % 9% 12% 4%
Research group elections October 18, 2018 26% 20% 22% 8th % 8th % 12% 4%
Research group elections 03/10/2018 29% 23% 18% 8th % 6% 13% 3%
Infratest dimap 09/24/2018 28% 23% 17% 8th % 7% 14% 3%
Research group elections 09/21/2018 32% 25% 15% 8th % 6% 11% 3%
INSA 07.09.2018 29% 24% 14% 8th % 7% 14% 4%
State election 2013 09/22/2013 38.3% 30.7% 11.1% 5.2% 5.0% 4.1% 5.6%

Older polls

January - August 2018
Institute date CDU SPD Green left FDP AfD Otherwise.
Infratest dimap June 21, 2018 31% 22% 14% 7% 7% 15% 4%
Research group elections 06/12/2018 31% 25% 13% 8th % 8th % 11% 4%
INSA 05/17/2018 33% 24% 13% 8th % 7% 11% 4%
Research group elections March 22, 2018 31% 26% 13% 8th % 7% 10% 5%
Allensbach 02.03.2018 31% 26% 12% 7% 9% 11% 4%
Forsa 02/25/2018 33% 23% 14% 7% 8th % 10% 5%
Infratest dimap 01/19/2018 31% 25% 13% 8th % 8th % 12% 3%
State election 2013 09/22/2013 38.3% 30.7% 11.1% 5.2% 5.0% 4.1% 5.6%
2013-2017
Institute date CDU SPD Green left FDP AfD Otherwise.
Infratest dimap 01/12/2017 32% 24% 14% 8th % 6% 14% 2%
Infratest dimap 08/24/2016 36% 27% 13% 6% 4% 9% 5%
Forsa 04/18/2016 33% 27% 11% 6% 7% 10% 6%
Infratest dimap 01/20/2016 34% 26% 11% 8th % 5% 12% 4%
Forsa 02.09.2015 38% 28% 13% 5% 5% 4% 7%
dimap 07/20/2015 41% 27% 14% 6% 6% 2% 4%
dimap December 16, 2014 38% 27% 16% 7% 2% 5% 5%
Forsa 03/14/2014 39% 27% 12% 7% 5% 5% 5%
State election 2013 09/22/2013 38.3% 30.7% 11.1% 5.2% 5.0% 4.1% 5.6%

course

Trend of mean values ​​by period, as of July 2, 2018
Sunday questions about the Hessian state election of the institutes Infratest Dimap (D), Forsa (F), research group Wahlen (G), INSA (I) and Allensbach (A) as well as the result of the state election 2013.

Potential analysis

Institute date Election chance CDU SPD Green left FDP AfD
INSA 23.10.2018 "for sure" 20% 16% 16% 7% 5% 10%
"Sure and maybe" 38% 40% 48% 23% 22% 15%
"Generally not" 25% 19% 17% 29% 20% 70%

Hypothetical direct election Prime Minister

Institute date MJK00898 Volker Bouffier.jpg Volker Bouffier ( CDU ) MJK00858 Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel.jpg Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel ( SPD ) none of them / don't know
Research group elections 10/25/2018 43% 34% 23%
Research group elections October 18, 2018 46% 32% 22%
Research group elections 03/10/2018 42% 35% 16%
Infratest dimap 09/24/2018 43% 39% 9%
Research group elections 09/21/2018 43% 37% 20%
Infratest dimap June 21, 2018 45% 36% 10%
Research group elections 03/23/2018 45% 34% 21%
Infratest dimap 01/19/2018 45% 40% 9%
Infratest dimap 01/12/2017 48% 35% 9%
Infratest dimap 08/24/2016 45% 27% -
Infratest dimap 01/20/2016 46% 35% -

See also

Web links

Commons : State election in Hesse 2018  - collection of images, videos and audio files

Individual evidence

  1. a b Final result of the State of Hessen statistik-hessen.de, accessed on November 16, 2018
  2. ^ Election dates in Germany
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  4. Black-Green can continue to rule in Hesse , n-tv
  5. FAZ.net December 19, 2018: CDU and Greens agree on a coalition agreement
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  7. Election 2018 with new constituencies fr.de from December 15, 2017 (accessed October 25, 2018)
  8. http://starweb.hessen.de/cache/GVBL/2017/00030.pdf
  9. http://www.doev.de/wp-content/uploads/2018/Leitsaetze/17/E_0558.pdf
  10. "Al-Wazir could become Prime Minister" n-tv October 18, 2018
  11. ^ Head-to-head races in Hessen Frankfurter Rundschau October 19, 2018
  12. Section 19 (3) and Section 20 (3) of the Act on the Elections to the Landtag of the State of Hesse.
  13. State of Hesse: Deadlines and Dates ( Memento of the original from July 17, 2018 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. @1@ 2Template: Webachiv / IABot / wahlen.hessen.de
  14. Press release of the regional returning officer of August 31, 2018
  15. State Returning Officer: Applicants ( Memento of the original from September 1, 2018 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. @1@ 2Template: Webachiv / IABot / wahlen.hessen.de
  16. These are the election programs of the parties for the state elections in Hesse , hr-inforadio.de of October 24, 2018
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  23. echo-online.de
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  39. New coalition agreement should be ready before Christmas hessenschau.de November 19, 2018
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  48. ↑ The final result of the Hessen election is certain. In: echo-online.de . November 16, 2018, accessed November 16, 2018 .
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  51. Election survey: Black-Green in Hesse without a majority ( memento of the original from May 17, 2018 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link has been inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. @1@ 2Template: Webachiv / IABot / www.rtl.de
  52. HR-Hessentrend: No majority for black-green in sight ( Memento of the original from December 13, 2018 in the Internet Archive ) Info: The archive link was inserted automatically and has not yet been checked. Please check the original and archive link according to the instructions and then remove this notice. @1@ 2Template: Webachiv / IABot / www.hessenschau.de
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