Protests in Lebanon 2019-20
 
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Protests in Lebanon |
The protests in Lebanon 2019 ( Arabic الاحتجاجات اللبنانية) are a series of demonstrations in the Lebanese capital Beirut and other cities in the country, which are initially directed against cost increases in the public service and in the energy sector as well as against corruption in the country and the head of government Saad Hariri . They broke out on Thursday, October 17, over the government's now-abandoned plans to raise new taxes, including on WhatsApp phone calls. Telephone services are extremely expensive in Lebanon. Like almost all lucrative branches of the economy, the industry has been monopolized by large industrialists close to the government.
However, they have since developed into a wave of protesters anger against the political class accused of corruption .
The national debt rose in the years 2019 and 2020 to over 150 percent of GDP, the rating agencies downgraded Lebanese government bonds as junk one. Fear of default has exacerbated the concerns of Lebanese citizens, who are angry about the poor quality of public services. The residents often suffer from daily lack of electricity and unclean water. It is the largest mass protests since the Cedar Revolution in 2005, in which Lebanese from all social and religious groups take part.
In a wave of unprecedented protests calling for the government to resign, people have said a. the streets closed with barriers and sit-ins . Protesters form a human chain across Lebanon on October 27th . Lebanon has now been covered by 321 days of “protest against a political class accused of corruption, mismanagement of public finances and the economic collapse that has not been observed since the civil war of 1975-90 .” In view of days of protests, the Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri announced the resignation of his government on Tuesday (October 29).
Despite the calm the country experienced the day after Prime Minister Saad Hariri's resignation, Asharq al-Awsat wrote that protests resumed in Lebanon on Wednesday evening (October 30) after news circulated that Hariri could again lead a government. A number of protesters blocked some roads across the country; they called on the parties to agree on a cabinet of technocrats capable of implementing economic reforms. Lebanon's anti-corruption protesters flocked to Riyadh al-Solh and Martyrs Square in Beirut on Sunday (November 3) to take part in a central demonstration, known as the "Sunday of Unity" and "Sunday of Pressure". was designated.
The nationwide protests had their first victory in the third week when the incumbent government resigned. However, President Michel Aoun took the time to start the process of forming a new government. Protesters demand swift move towards a new government of independent technocrats. Protests, which originally focused on poor infrastructure and lousy public services, quickly grew into an unprecedented nationwide push to displace an elite that protesters say has ruled the country like a cartel for decades. But the massive protest movement in Lebanon in its fourth week is still a long way from its "goal of systemic change," wrote Mona Khneisser.
According to the German Society for Foreign Policy , in contrast to earlier waves of protests, the current protests are not limited to Beirut. “They take place on a decentralized basis in all regions, regardless of their religious composition or the politically dominant force. The protests are also unique in that they represent decidedly secular issues and concerns and reject the ruling class as a whole. ”The slogan“ Kellon Ya'ni Kellon ”(all means all) has become a marching cry over all demonstrations. This marks a turning point in the mood of the people and a rejection of the political class and its denominational politics. They fear the loss of their power, also because many demonstrators are chanting slogans that are strongly reminiscent of the Arab Spring of 2011: "Al-Shaab yurid Isqat al-Nizam" (The people want the overthrow of the regime) and "Thawra, Thawra" ( Revolution, revolution).
Almost four weeks after the nationwide protests began calling for the overthrow of the ruling elite, the radical changes called for by the protesters have not been implemented. The peaceful protests against corruption and sectarianism have paralyzed Lebanon and exacerbated an economic crisis that has brought the country to the brink of insolvency . Tensions in Lebanon rose again on Tuesday (November 12) after President Michel Aoun urged protesters to go home, sparking a new wave of demonstrations in which a man was shot and killed by a soldier who did the Fire opened to disperse the people blocking the streets south of the capital, Beirut. After the first death in the protests in Lebanon, anger against the leadership of the country grows. The conflict escalated further on November 19 when demonstrators blocked the parliament building and clashed with the police. Human chains were used to prevent MPs from passing laws that critics fear might represent an amnesty for past corruption. After weeks of peaceful protests in Lebanon, the capital was on 25/26. November hit a wave of violence; Supporters of Shiite militias from Hezbollah and Amal attacked protesters. On 14./15. December saw renewed attacks by these groups.
As a result of the protests, the university professor and the former education minister Hassan Diab was appointed head of government as successor to Saad Hariri on December 19, 2019. "Here it played a significant role that he is a Sunni Muslim, otherwise his choice would not have been possible," wrote the weekly newspaper " Freitag" . “To what extent Diab can implement the protesters' demands, change the political climate, counteract the economic crisis and corruption in the country and pacify the political camps remains to be seen. What is certain, however, is that its leeway is limited under these circumstances. ”Since January 21, 2020, Lebanon has had a new government. “But observers hardly give it a chance to avert national bankruptcy. The corrupt political class has plundered the country for too long, ”wrote the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung .
The lockdown as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic in Lebanon worsened the economic situation and led to a renewed outbreak of violence at the end of April, starting in Tripoli. A few days after the explosion in the port of Beirut , thousands of Lebanese took to the streets and expressed their anger at the political leadership.
course
October to December 2019
The demonstrations, which have been going on for months, play an ambivalent role, wrote Julius Geiler in the Tagesspiegel on the situation in Lebanon at the turn of the year. “This is how people take to the streets to express their protest about the desolate economic situation. At the same time, the country is slipping more and more into national bankruptcy due to the weeks of standstill - brought about by general strikes and road blockades as well as political instability. International donors hold back as long as there is at least no calm in the country. The Lebanese in particular suffer from this. "
January to June 2020
Since October 2019 there have been repeated flare-ups, strikes and road blockades across the country. The initially mostly peaceful protests are increasingly overshadowed by violent clashes between groups of demonstrators and security forces. In June 2020, riots broke out in the center of Beirut near Parliament, with a large number of people injured, as well as vandalism and isolated cases of looting. Banks, schools and offices are currently open, albeit to a limited extent.
Situation after the explosion in the port of Beirut (August 2020)
Three days after the explosion in the port of Beirut on August 4, 2020, protests broke out by demonstrators, some of whom were violent, who were indignant about the post-disaster situation, which is widely regarded as the most shocking expression of the government's incompetence . Fights broke out in central Beirut; protesters also started a fire, destroyed shops and threw stones at security guards. The protests erupted when the Lebanese ambassador to Jordan resigned, saying that the country's authorities were showing "total negligence", signaling the need for a change in leadership. On Saturday (August 8), thousands of protesters had gathered in central Beirut to demonstrate against the grievances in the country amid the catastrophic explosion when riot police fired tear gas at those trying to break through a barrier to get to the parliament building reach. A number of protesters stormed the Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Energy and the Association des Banques du Liban (ABL) building in downtown Beirut.
Anti-government demonstrations broke out on Sunday (August 9) for the second day in a row; Fire broke out at an entrance to Parliament Square as protesters attempted to break into a cordoned off area. Protesters also broke into the offices of the Ministry of Housing and Transportation. Two government ministers, Manal Abdel Samad and Demianos Kattar , resigned in light of the political fallout from the explosion and the months of economic crisis, saying the Diab government had not implemented any reforms. A day later, on August 10, Hassan Diab's government resigned. Thousands of demonstrators marched along the ruined ruins of Beirut's port on August 11; this happened a week after the explosion.
On August 13, the Lebanese parliament confirmed the state of emergency imposed on the capital, Beirut. “This gives the army far-reaching powers in the tense situation with mass protests against the political system. It can now issue bans on going out, ban public gatherings, censor the media and bring civilians to military courts. "
The protesters currently want much deeper changes than just replacing Hassan Diab or even the ingrained figure of Michel Aoun, whose resignation they will next demand, said MarkMacKonnon. “They want the entire Lebanon political elite to be stripped of the formal and informal power they and their families have had since a 1990 peace agreement that ended a 15-year civil war by effectively dividing the country between the same warlords who a part had been torn apart. ”The pact has preserved a semblance of peace in this country for the past three decades, but it is a peace that has fostered a culture of corruption and impunity that has now overwhelmed the state. The demonstrators hope for the end not only of Aoun and his Christian rival Samir Geagea , but also of Sunnis leader Saad Hariri , Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and Nabih Berri , the long-time Shiite speaker of parliament. And also Hassan Nasrallah , the leader of the powerful Hezbollah militia.
- After the resignation of Hassan Diab
In his sermon on August 16, the Maronite patriarch Béchara Pierre Raï warned against the formation of a so-called “national unity government” that did not reflect “real unity”. “Without consensus on reforms, there can be no consensus government. Together with the people we want a government for the state and the people, not a government for parties, sects or foreign countries, ”added the Patriarch. “The people want a government to save Lebanon, not a government to save the ruling authorities and the political class. People want a government that is in harmony with them, not with external powers, a government whose components would meet on a reform project, ”added al-Rahi.
background
prehistory
According to Anchal Vohra ( Foreign Policy ), the most recent protests in Lebanon began as early as December 2018. “At that time, the country lacked a national government since the elections last May, and everyday life became noticeably worse for most residents. The first protesters took to the streets to complain about the chronic shortage of electricity, the shortage of jobs and the increasing national debt , which, as the third largest share of the world's gross domestic product, hampered the government. ”Since taking office in January 2019, the new cabinet not reduce the deficit enough to trigger a $ 11 billion loan package from European countries. Saad Hariri, the pro-Western prime minister, has made various attempts to balance the budget by cutting benefits for public sector employees and army veterans only to face mass strikes and other opposition. For Vohra, the latest announcements of tax increases and introductions (tobacco, WhatsApp) were a “desperate measure” by the government, which ultimately brought the masses onto the streets.
The mass protests, however, were not unexpected, according to the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), as Lebanon has been in a severe economic crisis for some time. The most striking manifestation of this crisis is a debt of around $ 100 billion, which forced the Lebanese government to implement severe austerity measures to free up $ 11 billion in aid donated by donor countries at CEDRE held in France on April 6, 2019 -Conference had agreed. The crisis has been exacerbated by the tightening of US sanctions against Hezbollah and its institutions, and recently also against the Lebanese Jamal Trust Bank, which was forced to close due to sanctions imposed on it for its financial relationship with Hezbollah. In September 2019, a dollar shortage in the Lebanese banking system and a depreciation of the Lebanese pound destabilized the economy, sparking protests that later spread across the country.
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The situation has also worsened due to the fact that in addition to the 4.5 million citizens, 1.5 million Syrian refugees live in Lebanon. The last census was in 1932. Nobody in the groups involved in power in the state wants a new count, the German ambassador George Birgelen told the Tagesspiegel . The state principle of Lebanon is that none of the established forces may endanger the functionality of the whole, because this is based on an extremely sensitive balance - no one should come up with the idea of trying to rebalance the weights. In power in Lebanon is de facto Hezbollah, kept alive by Iran, and Syria also plays a role in the structure of political and social groups - above all through the 1.5 million refugees. "There is a darkening mood against the Syrian refugees," said Georg Birgelen. Other political observers also say that this is due to the lessons the Lebanese have learned from living together with the Palestinian refugees for decades .
Current political and economic situation
The Lebanon political system distributes the power to the three largest religious communities in the country - Maronites , Sunnis and Shiites . The system is said to have kept the country fairly peaceful since 1990; however, it is criticized for the fact that it causes corruption and consolidates a ruling elite. The protests were triggered by an announcement the week before: The Lebanese government wanted to introduce a new tax. Anyone who uses messaging services like WhatsApp should now pay six US dollars a month. The background to this is that Lebanon, with around 6.8 million inhabitants, is affected by an economic and financial crisis; the national debt is a good 77 billion euros. This corresponds to a ratio of around 150 percent of the gross domestic product, making Lebanon the third-highest debt ratio in the world. Many Lebanese accuse the politicians of their country of being corrupt - to do their thing in their own pockets, to plunder the state financially and to put the money in Swiss bank accounts. In Transparency International's current corruption index , Lebanon ranks 138th - behind Iran and ahead of Mexico. In an international comparison, Lebanon shows very high income inequality. The top 1 percent of Lebanese generate almost a quarter of GDP, which is the highest proportion in the Middle East, which, according to the World Inequality Database, is one of the most unequal regions in the world. Even higher up the income ladder, the top 0.1 percent of Lebanese earn roughly the same share of national income as the bottom 50 percent.
The points of criticism also include the lack of public services, such as water and electricity supplies, waste disposal, environmental pollution and an inadequate and overpriced education system. Displeasure in the population had also " triggered the helpless handling of the violent forest fires in 2019 in the Schuf Mountains south of the capital". Anger over fuel prices was compounded by the failure to propose a more progressive tax that would have been aimed directly at wealthy Lebanese. Economic problems in the country continue to escalate due to persistent ethnic and religious tensions. In order to receive international aid of eleven billion dollars, the government would have to implement austerity measures. "Lebanon kept alive through aid from the Gulf and money deposited into local banks by wealthy Lebanese expats," wrote David Rosenberg ( Haaretz ). “These days, however , the Gulf States are less generous. Because of the low oil prices, they have less cash at their disposal. They also don't want their money going to an Iranian ally like Hezbollah. "
Allegations were also directed against Prime Minister Saad Hariri; At the end of September it became known that he allegedly transferred $ 16 million to a South African model whose father is active in the real estate business, the New York Times revealed.
In an ongoing Twitter debate that began October 24, commentators have expressed their anger that they have been denied banking services for more than a week. After the protests began, banks closed their doors. Six working days later, a senior bank official said the status quo would continue until conditions improve. "As soon as normality is restored, we are very confident that we can fully serve our customers again," Salim Sfeir, head of Beirut's local lender bank, told Reuters on Thursday. According to figures, around 65% of Lebanese are bank-tied, leaving two-thirds of the country's population cut off from private funds.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on Monday (October 28th) that it would examine a reform package for emergencies that the Lebanese government announced last week. Reforms should be implemented urgently given the country's high debt and budget deficits. Jihad Azour, director of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia Department , told Reuters that in order to restore confidence in the economy, some of the long-awaited reforms in the energy and telecommunications sector "need to be implemented clearly and on a very precise schedule." He said the fund is in regular talks with the Lebanese authorities but has not asked the IMF for program funding.
Another serious problem is the energy supply; because Lebanon is one of the few countries in the world that is highly dependent on heating oil and diesel oil for power generation . Economic reforms announced by Prime Minister Saad Hariri on October 21 include an overhaul of the country's energy sector, which includes converting power plants owned by state giant Electricité du Liban (EdL) from oil to cheaper natural gas . Although the reform package failed to calm the demonstrators, oil power is undoubtedly a burden on Lebanese finances. State energy subsidies totaled $ 1.8 billion in 2018 , according to the World Bank - around 30 percent of the state's budget deficit last year.
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Many gas stations across Lebanon have been closed for lack of fuel since Sunday (November 10th), the chief of the syndicate of gas station owners told the Daily Star . The portal Qantara.de reported on November 11th that all over the country supermarkets were hit by panic buying, which was due to an impending shortage of basic food and additional price increases. Fears were heightened by warnings from gas station owners and hospitals of fuel and drug shortages after banks restricted access to the dollars they needed for supplies.
There are now fears among the population that the restrictive banking measures could trigger panic and prompt people to withdraw money from their accounts and stock up on supplies. The Lebanese pound has been pegged to the US dollar for two decades , with currencies being interchangeable in everyday life. But banks have been restricting access to dollars since the end of the summer after fears central bank reserves could run out. This has forced people to change money on the black market, where they are charged higher exchange rates, which in fact amounts to a devaluation of the pound. The official exchange rate remains fixed at 1,507 Lebanese pounds to the dollar, but the rate on the parallel market has exceeded 1,800, causing prices to rise. Zouhair Berro, chairman of the Lebanese consumer association, said the price of meat and vegetables rose by seven percent and that of vegetables by more than 25 percent over the past week.
Lebanon is suffering from a liquidity squeeze that has resulted in banks restricting daily withdrawals and causing difficulties for importers. As a result, there is a shortage of basic food , fuel and medicine, and supermarket prices have risen by up to 20 percent in some areas. Lebanon cannot avoid a bankruptcy, believes the American-Lebanese bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb (November 17). According to the author, professor and investor, the country can no longer avert bankruptcy. "Lebanon must stop its debt servicing," wrote Taleb on the short message service Twitter .
According to Rhana Natour, the protests in Lebanon also highlight the plight of Lebanese families; many employees have to deal with cut wages or layoffs. "The protests are the result of long-lasting economic fears of a citizenry that feels financially squeezed at every turn," wrote the author for the American Public Broadcasting Service (November 26). “A large proportion of Lebanese households are faced with a crippling combination of high costs of living, low wages and a government so financially indebted that it cannot provide reliable public services. In a country where the minimum wage is $ 400 a month, the basic cost of living has risen to a level comparable to that of New York City with a six times higher monthly minimum wage. "
Rhana Natour also goes into the education and employment situation in Lebanon; although an expensive college degree helps, there aren't enough good jobs to make a living from. Every year, an average of around 20,000 new people join the Lebanese workforce, without taking into account the enormous influx of Syrian refugees. To absorb this, the economy would have to create more than six times the number of jobs currently on offer. The private sector could play a crucial role here. In Lebanon, however, World Bank market analysts found that private sector job creation remains weak as investors fear poor governance and poor infrastructure in the country. It is estimated that up to 44 percent of the Lebanese population with a university degree have migrated abroad. Many young people see leaving the country as the only way to shape their financial future. A researcher looked at the employment prospects of 18- to 35-year-olds who emigrated from Lebanon between 1992 and 2007. Only 61 percent were employed in Lebanon before they left. After settling in a new country, 91 percent were employed. The drop in oil prices has slowed hiring in the Gulf, and more restrictive immigration policies in the United States and Europe have left some young people unable to leave the country.
Another phenomenon of the precarious economic situation and the related, steadily rising unemployment is the fact that more and more young Lebanese are planning to emigrate, reported Der Tagesspiegel (December 28). In the streets of Beirut you hardly ever meet under 30-year-olds who do not speak of a planned emigration to Canada, the European Union, Australia or the Gulf States.
Banking crisis
The Lebanese economy has long been dependent on a robust flow of money into Beirut's banking sector. That supply has diminished as economic activity slowed and remittances from Lebanon's vast diaspora decreased. To strengthen its own foreign exchange reserves, the central bank has raised interest rates on dollar deposits, absorbed more foreign currency from the trading sector and continued to put pressure on the Lebanese pound, the Financial Times wrote . These currencies were used to maintain the fixed, strong exchange rate of the Lebanese pound against the dollar, as well as to service the high interest rates on existing dollar accounts. This procedure, which screwed the interest on Dollareinalgen up, has been widely as a Ponzi scheme ( pyramid scheme called). The national currency has weakened about 19 percent against the dollar on the black market, driving up store prices and fears that people's savings could be wiped out. Riad Salame, the governor of the central bank, insisted on Monday (November 11) that bank deposits are safe and said the Banque du Liban will not enforce official capital controls. But commercial lenders have already put their own arbitrary restrictions in place. While some banks control how much money a customer can send overseas, others limit the amount of dollars that can be withdrawn in cash.
The chaotic situation has undermined confidence in the banking system, experts said. "[The restrictions are] a very inferior form of capital control," said Farouk Soussa, Middle East economist at Goldman Sachs . He added that the opaque restrictions raised suspicions that some of the richest people in Lebanon might have done business to withdraw money, while smaller depositors were told their funds were stuck. The restrictions have sparked angry outbursts from customers at bank counters across the country, leading the Lebanese Bank Workers Union to call a strike on Tuesday, November 12, citing security concerns.
According to Suleiman Haroun, President of the Lebanese Consortium for Private Clinics, the dollar shortage is particularly severe for hospitals. He said the country only had about a month of medical coverage. In response, the central bank agreed last week to extend a facility that guarantees access to dollars for certain products to medical devices, Haroun said. Medical supplies are mostly shipped by sea, which means there can still be a two-week delay even if hospitals suddenly regain access to dollars. A sudden cut in bank overdrafts last week meant that hospitals that owed money from the financially troubled government had already lost an important "safety net," the executive said. Doctors have planned to go on strike this Friday (November 15th). Other companies are also suffering from it. Although the central bank guaranteed the delivery of dollars for fuel last month, a person related to the fuel industry said the banks had stopped opening letters of credit to fuel importers in the past three weeks. Without letters of credit - to guarantee payments between buyers and sellers during the transportation of fuel - the fuel deliveries will be stopped, the person said. Gas stations across the country were closing on the weekend (November 9-10) while medics said hospitals could not access enough dollars to replenish depleted stocks.
The political impasse in Lebanon deepened after a tentative deal was lifted on a new prime minister who made the country one without in the face of the worst economic crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war. Six weeks after Saad Hariri's resignation as Prime Minister, triggered by protests against the ruling elite, the financial crisis gives cause for concern for the stability of Lebanon: banks tighten capital controls, dollars are scarce and the Lebanese pound has lost a third of its value, wrote The Daily Star.
Statements by financial expert Dr. Marwan Iskandar, in which he revealed that Lebanese politicians were sending billions of dollars abroad, created confusion in politics, banking and even the judiciary and heightened the anger of the popular uprising against the ruling class in Lebanon, Asharq al-Awsat reported on December 29th. This information has sparked great resentment in Lebanon, especially at a time when banks are imposing severe restrictions on depositors and forbidding them to transfer funds in foreign currencies abroad. This affects merchants who have to pay for imported goods and even citizens who have to transfer money to their children studying abroad. In this regard, an emergency meeting of the Parliamentary Committee on Finance and Budget was held on Thursday (December 26) in the presence of the Governor of the Central Bank, Riyadh Salameh , who announced after the talks that “investigations will be carried out into reports on officials and bankers making remittances He went on to say, "We will do everything the law allows us to review all transfers made abroad in 2019 and to determine whether there are any suspicious funds."
Tourism crisis
The unprecedented economic and financial crisis in Lebanon has severely affected the hospitality sector, which is a pillar of the Lebanese economy, with hundreds of restaurants closing and hotel occupancy falling, Naharnet wrote (December 22). In recent years there has been talk that the tiny Mediterranean country is on the verge of economic bankruptcy, similar to the Greek crisis in 2009. However, entrepreneurs said that after the October 17th protests they really felt the effects of the economic crisis. They paralyzed businesses with road closures and strikes as the crisis deepened. At a press conference in Beirut on December 19, Pierre Achkar, President of the Lebanese Hotel Association for Tourism, said that more than 150,000 hoteliers, partners, employees and their families are facing an imminent threat due to the economic crisis. “We were occupied from 100% to 4% overnight (in October). November was the first full month after the riots started, and we ended up with 10%, ”Rami Sayess, regional vice president of Four Seasons Hotel, told The Associated Press after the conference.
Since then, the instability caused by the war in Syria has contributed to the country's troubled economy, which has affected Lebanon's hospitality sector. The strained relations between Lebanon and the Gulf States, which banned their nationals from visiting Lebanon in February 2016, are also having a negative impact on business. In September 2019, 130 stores were permanently closed, in October 135 were closed. Another 200 were added in November. December is usually a busy month for the tourism industry with Christmas and holidays coming up. Many Lebanese expatriates who normally flock to Lebanon at this time of year are now hesitating because of the unrest. And due to the lack of bookings, brand hotels in Lebanon such as Sheraton and Four Seasons have started sending Lebanese employees to other hotels in the area to cut costs.
Sectarism
For many members of the current opposition, the main problem facing Lebanese society is sectarism . "Sectarism in Lebanon is like climate change and the international community: everyone complains about it and says that something must be done about it, but then nobody does anything," says Middle East expert Daniel Gerlach. He was the editor-in-chief of the Middle East magazine zenith , who translated and defined the English term, derived from “sect”, “Sectarianism” in his book “The Middle East does not go under” as: “a mindset marked by resentment , which is in expresses an overemphasis on the ethnic or religious identity of individuals or groups within a state community. She does not pursue the overcoming of these rifts, but their deepening. [...] "
According to Gerlach, the coexistence of the various groups in Lebanon never worked without tension. The state is not in a position to dissolve that, rather it is withdrawing further and further. During the civil war , people saw that state institutions were practically abolished, that soldiers in the military earned their money as mercenaries on the side. After the war, Syria occupied Lebanon for another 15 years, created a shadow regime and further undermined the state. “Where the central state is weak, where it is being eaten up by corruption and clientelism, people focus on what creates security. And that is your own origin, your identity, defined by a community, ”says Gerlach.
"The October 17th Revolution is not just a political uprising, but a cultural revolution towards a more inclusive Lebanon, in which unarmed young people oppose discrimination based on age, sect, gender, socio-economic background or other reasons," commented the Lebanese daily newspaper An-Nahar . “Above all, the lack of equal opportunities has driven young people from schools and universities onto the streets.” The criticism of denominationalism gets its real impact from social concerns. It is clearly visible that members of all denominations are represented at the demonstrations, said Joachim Paul from the Heinrich Böll Foundation (November 27). The demonstrators waved the Lebanese flag - and not that of individual denominational groups or parties.
Form, intentions and conflicts
For the most part, the protests, and especially the demonstrations, were peaceful and, with the participation of families with children and senior citizens, often had the character of street parties. At the beginning and in the first few days, however, there were numerous roadblocks erected by protesters, mostly in the form of burning barricades. This also affected important long-distance traffic routes, such as around 20 barriers between Byblos and Beirut. At times the connection to the country's only international airport was also affected. The protest actions also took on fanciful to humorous formats, e.g. B. the road blockade with donkeys in the south of the country.
In the evenings and at night there were violent clashes between security forces and demonstrators in Beirut, which had been preceded by the destruction of bank windows and the looting of shops. The number of injuries is given on both sides as around 70 each.
So far, five people have been killed in connection with the protests; two by protesters, two by bodyguards, one person by the argument between protesters. On October 17, two uninvolved workers were suffocated when a fire started by demonstrators hit a building. Two protesters died on October 19 after a former politician's bodyguard opened fire on them in Tripoli when his vehicle was attacked. On October 19, a man was shot dead after a conflict at a barricade on the road to the airport.
Among the protesters that AFP met at the rallies in Beirut, the wishes and dreams differed as soon as they were asked beyond the slogan “All, that is all”, which reflects a common desire for renewal. A 16-year-old high school student would like “those who rule to assure us of our rights and that there will be work” because he loves his country and does not want “to be forced to emigrate ”. Definitely more radical is the statement that the priority is "overthrowing the entire government and bringing the army to power" in order to end the uncertainty. And he wouldn't mind if President Michel Aoun , a former 84-year-old general, took the lead. At this point in time, the protest movement lacks leadership figures, as in the 2015 protest movement, the “waste crisis”, in which some members of civil society took the stage. Mona Fawaz from the Madinati group in Beirut ( Beirut is my city ) was one of them. But she was booed on Monday (October 21) when she picked up the microphone in Martyrs Square in the heart of the capital. The scenario would, of course, benefit current power. Carmen Geha, assistant professor at the American University of Beirut (AUB), however, believes that new alliances, including those of students and lawyers, are emerging beyond traditional political boundaries.
"If you want to give this [protest] a name, this is the Dignity Revolt - people who are getting their dignity back because it's so humiliating to be a Lebanese citizen among this ruling class," said Nizar Hassan, the Co -Moderator of the New York Times Lebanese Politics Podcast . "You know the country can be much better, you know that you are not responsible for how bad the situation is, and yet these people keep dividing us and taking action against our interests."
Before the desired improvement in the financial situation of the lower and middle classes in Lebanon can be achieved, the economic framework conditions will continue to deteriorate due to the strikes and protests. One example is tourism , which is not insignificant for the country , here as well as in cultural, scientific and business travel there will be a decline, which is already becoming apparent in hotel bookings.
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In Lebanon, the protests span different sects, ages, genders and ideologies. "Most notable, however, were the protests by the Shiites in the south of the country against the Amal movement, which historically was the predominant Shiite political party," said Anchal Vohra ( Foreign Policy ). "The streets of Tire rang out with curses directed against Nabih Berri - the Amal leader, Shiite parliament spokesman and Hezbollah allies."
The demands of the demonstrators include the appointment of a technocratic government that is drafting a new electoral law , according to which early elections are to be held, Al Jazeera reported on Thursday (October 24). The current electoral law divides the country into 15 sectarian ruled districts and allocates the seats according to sects.
A team of authors from the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung wrote on Thursday (October 24) that no recognizable group has taken over the organization or leadership of the protests . "Striking few speeches dominate the political space and the TV stations are concentrated almost entirely on interviews with mostly low-income layers responsible citizens." The protests were also "a protest of the youth of the country: scenes of protest, of the style of the Occupy -Proteste reminded and clearly shows anti-capitalist character, are clearly dominated by the age group of 20 to 30-year-olds, that is, the generation of first-time voters in the 2018 elections. ”For Rebecca Collard (Foreign Policy) likes the fact that the Lebanese protests so far (October 25th) are leaderless, "be their strength". Most of the protesters were fed up with decades of economic mismanagement and corruption and just wanted the government to be gone.
The once extremist Lebanese city of Tripoli has strangely become the focus of national protests, noted Richard Hall ( The Independent ) on October 25. "For a city that was neglected and vicious for a long time, this uprising was as much a coming-out party as it was a protest." For years, Tripoli had been plagued by a reputation for violence and radicalism, which was often the epitome of sectarian diseases of the country is used, according to the author. “From the outside it might seem that a dramatic change has taken place. For the residents here, the story of these demonstrations is not a story of transformation, but a story of a city that shows the world its true face. "
Early on Friday (October 25), protesters briefly closed the highway between the southern city of Sidon and Beirut, burned tires and blocked traffic. The army later removed the tires and reopened the road. Protesters set up tents on the motorway between East and West Beirut, some of which were sleeping on the street to block traffic. They only let ambulances and army vehicles through. The protesters waved banners reading, "You've taken on the state, bear with us for a few days," to drivers arriving on a closed road that linked east Beirut with its southern suburbs. In its first official warning, the Lebanese military urged protesters to respect the people's right to free movement and called on them to end the roadblock. "The army command warns against continuing to use these funds and impairing personal and public freedom," said the military in a statement on its official Twitter account.
But since the protests that ruled central Beirut began, the Egg has been among several pre-war rooms occupied by academics and protesters. Raves and film screenings were organized there “to breathe new life into the once desolate center of the capital”. Charbel Nahas , an AUB professor, gives speeches there.
In a now well-established routine, entire families of volunteers appeared early on on Sunday (October 27) at the most important protest locations to clean up after another night of protests and parties. After dark, the central Martyrs' Square in Beirut and other protest centers in Lebanon are transformed into a spacious, open area where demonstrators dance, sing or organize political meetings.
Timour Azhari wrote on Monday (October 28) in Al Jazeera: “Now the people on the streets are preparing for a long fight. And many find that comedy, satire, and performance provide the necessary relief during long hours in the open air, while at the same time serving as a vehicle for sharp criticism of politicians who appear increasingly distant. "The methods may be unconventional, says Azhari, but after 11 Days of an unprecedented riot, people still held the squares and streets across the country and would have effectively fought against any eviction attempts. This spirit of protest can perhaps best be summed up with the folk song: "We want to dance, we want to sing, we want to overthrow the regime."
In their fourth week (starting November 7th), the riots have proven relentless as spontaneous, hundreds of thousands of strong nationwide protests take over the streets and squares of major cities and various regions. On Sunday, the protesters started their largest demonstration since Hariri's resignation. For the past two days, high school students across the country have taken to the streets, resisting demands to resume classes and expressing support for the movement's demands. The protesters have moved from the main squares to the hotbeds of corruption and have held a series of demonstrations against the illegal encroachment on lucrative private investments in public property (e.g. in the Ramle el Bayda and Zaytouna Bay resorts). One night women marched in a candlelight vigil into the center of Beirut, hammering pots and pans that could be heard in the neighborhoods.
According to the author Mona Kheisser, the global view of the current movements as well as that in Lebanon shows that they deviate from the traditional organizational framework (trade unions, political parties, etc.) and introduce new forms of communication, organization and identification. These movements tend to be fragmented and refuse to adopt traditional forms of leadership and reject them as overly hierarchical. While these movements are extremely capable of quickly mobilizing large numbers of people, they often face significant challenges in building coherent organizations and strategies that can take long-term action and bring about significant change.
The youth play a major role in the protests, wrote Julia Neumann in Jetzt ; "Our parents and grandparents could not overcome this wall of fear that the politicians built," she quotes protester Dima Elayache. “But we young people could really make a difference in the country. For example, we no longer want to be part of the denominational system. "
- Human Rights Watch report
According to Human Rights Watch , Lebanese security forces have failed to stop attacks on peaceful demonstrators by men armed with sticks, metal bars and sharp objects. The security forces have also used excessive force to disperse protests and remove roadblocks. The Lebanese authorities should take all possible measures to protect peaceful demonstrators and not to break up peaceful gatherings by force. Human Rights Watch has documented at least six cases in which security forces failed to protect peaceful demonstrators from violent attacks by men with sticks, stones and metal bars. Although security forces largely refrained from using excessive force against protesters as of October 18, 2019, Human Rights Watch recorded that they used excessive force to disperse protesters at least 12 times. Security forces also arbitrarily arrested dozens of peaceful demonstrators and disturbed people while the protests were being filmed. "The Lebanese security forces seem by and large to have the right of citizens to protest, but the authorities should make it clear that they will not tolerate violent attacks and will stop the spread of violent protests for no reason," said Joe Stork, Deputy Middle East Director at Human Rights Watch. "Security forces should protect peaceful demonstrators by ensuring that they are adequately equipped and deployed in demonstration sites."
Samar El-Masri, professor at the Center for Transitional Justice and Post-Conflict Reconstruction at the University of Western Ontario wrote in The Globe and Mail (November 18) that in a wave of current protests around the world, the Lebanese "revolution" appears - as the demonstrators like to call it - to be in a genre of its own. The demonstrations have been described as cheerful, but behind that happy appearance lies a real struggle, serious demands and a potentially transformative mobilization, even if not all demands are met. At the same time, the protests are "the strongest manifestation of national reconciliation since the end of the Lebanese civil war in 1990." On the other hand, in a country in which sectarianism and loyalty to the leader are deeply rooted, a nationwide, spontaneous and leaderless revolution is unprecedented. Third, the leadership role of women was powerful; in fact, women formed the heart of the revolution, leading the chants, building tents, blocking roads, and often forming the first line of defense separating the army from the rest of the protesters. After all, the protests of Lebanese youth so far have shown that their voice matters. More than 40 percent of the population in Lebanon is under the age of 24, which means they never saw the civil war. They therefore largely do not respond to sectarian fears of triggering a new internal conflict. According to the author, they have seen their peaceful message, their ability not to fall into the sect trap, and their various evolving and peaceful strategies have been successful in keeping the pressure on politicians. Their revolution, which included massive demonstrations, road closures, targeted sit-down strikes, women's marches and massive student strikes, has special characteristics. Not only recycling initiatives and cleaning campaigns were presented, but also lively discussion panels in the squares to spread fear and help people understand the political, legal and economic situation in the country.
- The role of the Syrian refugees in the protests
Dara Foi'Elle and Joey Ayoub (Al Jumhuriya) wrote about the involvement of Syrians and Palestinians in the ongoing protests in Lebanon; however, most chose to do so "from the sidelines" for fear of being attacked by security forces and / or sectarian media. The feelings that the majority of Syrians in Lebanon feel now are therefore as varied as the demonstrators themselves. They range from sweet nostalgia to deep melancholy; from pure euphoria for the uprising of another people in the Middle East to feelings of panic at the thought of possible counter-reactions against the Lebanese refugee community. These concerns are compounded by the fact that current President Michel Aoun - himself a former Army General - and his son-in-law Gebran Bassil, the current Executive Foreign Minister, are particularly fixated on the role of Syrian refugees. In a speech on the occasion of his third anniversary in office, Aoun even named an increase in refugee returns (explicit deportations were not mentioned) as one of his best “achievements”. According to the authors, Aoun's television station, OTV and the political party, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), have indeed gained the reputation of scapegoating Syrians. The broadcaster OTV has repeatedly focused on the real or imaginary Syrian presence among the Lebanese demonstrators. It was part of the narrative of the ruling establishment, and in particular the FPM, Amal and Hezbollah, that the protesters are all funded by foreign powers. a conspiracy theory familiar to every Syrian. In this sense, it is not surprising that Syrians hesitate and are genuinely afraid of being seen in the revolution. Even those who remain confident and confident find themselves in an uncomfortable position and often wonder whether or not they would be welcomed as participants.
- After the nomination of Hassan Diab
According to Lama Mourad, the composition of the demonstrators has changed over time. In the first weeks of the protest, there were severely disadvantaged, essentially unemployed and poor classes. Increasingly, the protesters come from more middle-class and educated backgrounds, particularly in Beirut, but Lebanese society is still widespread. One thing that has stayed the same is that protests are taking place across the country, not concentrated in the capital as they are usually in Lebanon. You see protests from the far north, a very agricultural and rural working class area, to the southern areas controlled by Hezbollah and other major Shiite parties, and usually they are not places where you see large-scale mobilization. There are key demands that everyone can agree on: the resignation of the government and the call for socio-economic justice. The costs should not fall on the citizens; They should be taken up by the banks, which are essentially the driving forces behind the crisis, and by the state itself. One of the slogans that has been heard since Day 1 is that all parties and the ruling elite should be held responsible. "We are also seeing a really strong presence of women, which is remarkable, and their demands are centered on feminist issues and issues of the right to pass on citizenship that are intertwined."
Excursus: The 2015 garbage crisis
The current movement in Lebanon and the widespread rejection of corrupt and sectarian politics recall the first waves of anti-establishment protests during the Arab uprisings of 2011 (with the demand that “the people want the overthrow of the sectarian regime”) and the Protests during the country's garbage crisis in 2015, during which people in the summer of 2015 expressed their "anger and disappointment over the declining socio-economic conditions, the political impasse and total corruption," wrote Mona Kheisser. The protests, dubbed the You Stink Movement, rejected conventional politics and its forms of organization (such as political parties) by calling out “ all means all ” (“kelon ya'neh kelon”) - all politicians are corrupt . However, the groups' competing strategic and ideological orientations created tensions, with some hoping to focus solely on the garbage crisis and others trying to put it in a larger structural context. After the movement broke up, several activists turned to the electoral process and reformist goals in pursuit of a strategy of gradual "change from within". In the following two years, independent groups at the local level tried to attack the political system, for example in the elections (May 2016) and the parliamentary elections in May 2018 .
While both campaigns sparked hope and sparked people's imagination, they ultimately led to mixed results and repeated disappointments, according to the author. “The recent protests are a pivotal moment in this larger cycle of dispute, as well as an important development from earlier stages. The alternative forms of collective action since the garbage crisis have exposed the shortcomings of individual struggles and election programs, which are limited to non-confrontational technical programs, and the need for a broader view of socio-economic realities and struggles. Yet there is much to be learned from recent experiences with "alternative" collective action in Lebanon. "
- Current situation
Vivian Yee and Hwaida Saad wrote in The New York Times (December 3) that the eternal garbage crisis is only the most glaring example of the country's crisis . It was last made public in 2015 when the country's political elite were fighting over a lucrative waste disposal deal when mountains of uncollected rubbish littered the streets of Beirut. There was a wave of protests. The last resort was to build two new landfills. Three years after opening, the landfills have only relocated the waste crisis to the coast, and they are quickly threatening to hurt capacity. The $ 288 million contract for a landfill went to Jihad al-Arab, the brother of an aide to the resigned Prime Minister Saad Hariri, a Sunni Muslim. According to three people familiar with the company's operations, the dumpsters arriving daily are filled with water to add to their billable weight. The other $ 142 million deal went to Dany Khoury, a Christian businessman close to President Michel Aoun's family. Experts found that the employees at this landfill dumped garbage and toxic waste directly into the Mediterranean. Both companies deny the allegations, but one thing is certain: At least $ 430 million later, Lebanon's garbage problems are barely any closer to resolving.
Opposition demands
The Lebanese Transparency Association - No Corruption (LTA), the national section of Transparency International , called on Thursday (October 24) that the government should do the following:
- Adoption of the implementing regulation on the “Right of access to the right to information” in accordance with the provisions set out therein;
- Adoption of the National Anti-Corruption Strategy, which has been under development for eight years ;
- Decree of the Oil Register;
- Adopt the law on public procurement and submit it to Parliament.
The above measures should be taken in line with anti-corruption best practices at international level and enable open governance in the public sector. Under no circumstances should they restrict access to information and transparency in the public sector . The LTA also reiterated its request to the Lebanese Parliament to keep the meetings open and hold the necessary committee meetings in the presence of local experts and within a set timeframe while they discuss and vote on key legislation. This includes legislation on:
- Fight against corruption in the public sector and create a national agency against corruption;
- Establish a special court for the misuse of public funds;
- Lifting of banking secrecy on all current and former presidents, ministers, parliamentarians and high-ranking officials;
- Removal of immunity from current and former ministers, parliamentarians and officials who handle public funds;
- Unauthorized enrichment and disclosure of assets;
- Regularization of the Court of Auditors ;
- Amendment of the "Law on the Regularization of the Central Inspection Authority";
- Conflicts of interest;
- Asset recovery (i.e. the targeted, discreet location, identification and recovery of funds and assets that are illegally owned by third parties);
- Strengthening the independence of the judiciary .
For a wide range of demonstrators (as of October 30th) the formation of a government of independent experts is a main requirement in order to lead the country through an intensifying economic and financial crisis and to secure basic supplies such as electricity and water. The demonstrators want to prevent “a part of the ruling class from being part of this government.” To this end, a new electoral law must be drawn up that abolishes sectarianism, as the current electoral law of Lebanon has divided the country into 15 districts, the seats of which are the respective sects be allocated.
The next Lebanese government faces acute financial and social challenges, according to the Lebanese section of Transparency International (LTA) on November 11th. The NGO therefore again urges parliamentarians to prioritize a number of other laws in the parliamentary elections. Among the most important are the draft amendment to the Unauthorized Enrichment Act, the draft Act to Combat Corruption in the Public Sector, and the establishment of the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) which ensures the independence of the judiciary and its right to appoint NACC representatives. Parliament must also give priority to the 2017 draft amendment on access to information in order to accelerate its effective implementation. Parliament must also guarantee and strengthen the independence and freedom of the judiciary. The LTA also stresses the need to ensure the open participation of civil society experts and representatives in discussions on anti-corruption measures in order to achieve legislation that complies with the national and international obligations of the Lebanese state.
Forms of organization of the opposition
The uprising has so far been leaderless and its demands amount to just a bunch of insults against political figures and protest chants, CNN reported on Saturday (October 26). But the movement's informality, say activists, is evidence of its authenticity and of the deep disappointment of the population with the group of cult leaders in Lebanon who have ruled since the beginning of the 15-year civil war in 1975.
Due to dissatisfaction with the country's sect leaders who have been brewed in recent years, several non-sectarian groups have emerged in the political landscape. During Beirut's local elections in 2016, a group of civil society activists known as Beirut Madinati carried out a strong campaign against sectarian candidates, but eventually lost. In the parliamentary elections in Lebanon in 2018 , a coalition of non-sectarian activists called stepped Kolouna Watani into the election scene; However, they only won one seat in parliament.
Charbel Nahas, who gave a speech at the Occupied Egg Meeting Point on Friday , is a former government insider and World Bank economist . As a two-time minister, he led reforms in the telecommunications sector by accelerating the country's Internet with 3G. In the labor market, he tried unsuccessfully to enforce general health insurance and eventually resigned from his post. In 2015 he founded the non-sectarian opposition party Mouwatinoun wa Mouwatinat fi Dawla . He said his group expected that endemic state corruption would drive the country into the crisis it is in today and has organized for that moment. Nahas' party set up a tent on Martyrs Square in central Beirut amid mass protests. The members cover 14-hour shifts, speak to passers-by and hold rallies about plans for a political transition from the country's sectarian leadership.
According to Heiko Wimmen of the International Crisis Group, the vast, overwhelming majority of the protests “are really spontaneous. Decentralized, which is also very, very chaotic. Many have known each other for years, they have their networks far away from the political sphere. ”On the first day of the protests, a party, the Lebanese Forces, which has been involved in all governments, withdrew and said,“ This government is or these people are incapable of and willing to reform. We join the movement. ”It is an interesting phenomenon that actually all parties involved in the power structure say loudly and clearly:“ Yes, these protests are justified. Yes, we understand anger. We see that one, but . "There are also cracks, so Wimmen in an interview with Deutschlandfunk on October 26th, which showed up in some of these parties that are still in power," but to say that there now There is already a real connection between the movement and parts of the system party, if you like, we are not that far yet. "
The protests had neither a fixed organizational structure nor a political leadership, according to the political scientist Maximilian Felsch, who teaches at Beirut Haigazian University , on October 30th. “The demonstrators lack a clearly formulated program. You want to change the system. But how they want to implement it is not clear to them themselves. ”In addition, Felsch fears,“ in the end, quite a few Lebanese could trust the politicians known so far. With or without Hariri, Lebanon is facing a long process. It is not certain that it will eventually lead to comprehensive reforms. "
According to Ali Kadri (October 31) there is “a revolution in Lebanon without a revolutionary ideology.” It came about spontaneously, and spontaneous revolutions ended badly for the left, according to the car. "Although the left had its climax in the less spontaneous German uprising of 1918/19 , the right-wing militias defended the state, won and murdered Rosa Luxemburg ." According to Kadri, the slogans of the Lebanese spontaneous revolution are "as superficial and insidious as [the] all predecessors of the Arab Spring . The demand to remove the sectarian system without removing the capital that goes with it will bring the same class to power with a different form of sectarianism. "
Jeffrey Feltman ( Brookings Institution ) problematizes the movement's lack of leadership; On the grounds that they are concerned about security in a country where political leaders and social activists have been routinely murdered, the protesters have deliberately rejected the idea of bringing leaders out of the protests to negotiate on their behalf. This ominously suggests that the otherwise so divided establishment status quo figures may have a common cause for the bypassing of accountability and substitution, as the "street" may be less united than the picturesque demonstrations, the author says.
Political reactions
In initial reactions to the mass protests over the weekend (October 19-20), a Christian party in the government ordered its four ministers to resign from the government. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah spoke out against the end of the Hariri era, but called for a "new spirit". According to Christian Weisflog ( Neue Zürcher Zeitung ), the Iran-supported Shiite party is “in a delicate position. They and their allies were the winners of the parliamentary elections in May 2018, are part of the government and therefore share responsibility. ”In addition, due to the tough sanctions, less money flows into the coffers of Hezbollah, which is no longer its base“ with grants At the same time, Sunni and Christian sections of the population would accuse the Shiite militia of holding the country hostage with its irreconcilable resistance to Israel.
However, the demonstrators' rejection of the reform package should not be a major problem for Hariri. The prime minister's main aim in announcing the reform agenda, he himself admitted, was to appease "international lenders". Hariri tried to convince them to release the billions of dollars pledged at a donor conference in Paris last April. "There is no doubt that if political leaders were accountable to the people, rather than international organizations and foreign donors, we would experience a radically different reality where the prosperity of the people is the primary concern of any government," wrote Michael Fakhri in Al Jazeera. "Today Lebanon has the opportunity to lead by example and create a political-economic system that strengthens and serves all people."
The government has long made efforts to cut spending and provide $ 11 billion in loans and grants pledged by international donors last year, including from the World Bank . As an immediate measure, Prime Minister Hariri announced on Monday (October 21) that his governing coalition with its 30 ministers from 11 different parties would adopt an economic reform package. In a first step the salaries of all ministers are to be halved. On Tuesday (October 22), Hariri praised the “reform program” in his speech to the nation as a “financial coup” according to the daily An Nahar. There will be no new taxes, he promised. Hariri now plans to provide 160 million US dollars to help low-income households. The Prime Minister also announced that he would set up a commission by the end of the year to exclusively fight the widespread corruption in the country. Anyone who has enriched themselves in public property must make up for the damage. As a special measure, Hariri announced that the salaries of government members and the state pensions of former politicians would be halved. The Ministry of Information and other “useless institutions” are to be closed completely. No other Lebanese government has ever taken such steps.
Charges against Najib Miqati
On Thursday (October 24), Gulf News reported that a prosecutor was accusing former Prime Minister Najib Miqati - Lebanon's richest man - and the country's largest bank, of making illegal profits from a subsidized housing program. Mikati has several business interests in West Africa and around the world, in partnership with his brother Taha. According to Forbes , the former prime minister's estimated net worth is $ 2.5 billion. This makes him one of the 1,000 richest people in the world. Mikati and his brother - the two richest men in Lebanon - jointly founded the Beirut-based M1 Group, which has interests in telecommunications companies in South Africa and other holdings in Monaco, London and New York. Mikati has denied the allegations; he said the charges are a punishment for failing to support President Michel Aoun's election in 2016 and for urging the government to step down in the face of mass protests that erupted last week. Mikati added that he would be willing to lift banking secrecy on his accounts, a measure Aoun has proposed for senior officials in response to protesters' demands. Lebanon has strict data protection regulations on bank accounts, which critics say make the country vulnerable to money laundering . The reports were soon denied by the state.
Government crisis
According to the government, a draft law to recover misappropriated state funds is being worked on. In addition, a bill to set up a commission to fight corruption is to come before the end of the year, reported Deutschlandfunk (October 24). “The political leadership of Lebanon makes small concessions and is generous where it should be taken for granted. Ultimately, however, she wants to leave everything as it was - to stay in power. "
President Michel Aoun promised in a nationwide televised state-of-the- art address on Thursday (October 24) that he would act against corruption in the state, one of the main demands of the protests. He was also open to a dialogue with the demonstrators in order to find the best solution to save the country from financial collapse. The president also did not rule out a government reshuffle. Aoun said he would support new anti-corruption laws. This also included considerations to ease banking secrecy and the immunity of presidents, ministers and members of government. If such laws were introduced, it could lead to investigations against current incumbents. While the “hot” wars in the Middle East had passed over the past decade, the Lebanese President of the United Nations General Assembly announced on Wednesday (23 October) that the refugee crisis in Syria had “security, social, economic and environmental effects” of his country ”.
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President Michel Aoun met with Prime Minister Saad Hariri at the Baabda Presidential Palace on Friday, October 25. Hariri then left without making a statement. Also on Friday, a Saudi newspaper reported that the Hariri government would resign within the next 48 hours. The Okaz newspaper reported on unnamed sources claiming that Hariri would form a new government reduced to 14 ministers, which would not include any of the ministers in the current government.
The President of the Republic, Michel Aoun, met the President of the American University of Beirut (AUB), Fadlo Khuri, and the Rector of the Université Saint-Joseph (USJ), Father Salim, at the Baabda Palace on Monday (October 28) Daccache. The discussions reportedly addressed the latest developments and the current situation.
The Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri announced his resignation on Tuesday afternoon (October 29). At a meeting the day before, Sunni leader Hussein al-Khalil , political advisor to Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, wanted to prevent him from giving in to protesters who were calling for the overthrow of his coalition government.
Hariri complained that he was not getting the support he needed to carry out a major cabinet reshuffle, which might have eased the situation on the streets and enabled reforms to be implemented quickly. The main sticking point, Hariri said, was Hezbollah's Christian ally, Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil , a son-in-law of President Michel Aoun, with whom the prime minister had repeatedly come into conflict since his cabinet was formed in January. While Hariri sought a major reshuffle to do away with Bassil - a target of ridicule in the protests - and others, Bassil and Aoun had opposed any reshuffle as protesters might not leave the streets and demand even more concessions. >
After Hariri's resignation
House spokesman Nabih Berri was quoted by the local media as saying that he was against the formation of a new government because he believed the protest movement would always demand more. The leader of the Progressive Socialist Party , Walid Jumblatt , announced on Tuesday at (29 October) that his bloc would vote for the beaten Prime Minister Saad Hariri if he would again nominated for the post of prime minister. In his remarks on LBCI television, Jumblat also called for an end to the road closure protests as he advocated the right to demonstrate. "Hariri has not been given a positive signal and the Free Patriotic Movement has shown intransigence by insisting on numbers," added Jumblat. In his statements on the LBCI broadcaster, Dschumblat also called for an end to the road blocking protests, even if he advocated the right to demonstrate. "The essential ministerial posts should be filled by experts, while an experienced figure must be appointed as foreign minister," said the PSP chairman.
Immediately after Hariri's announcement and the attack on protesters, most political actors simply called for calm - although Hezbollah and its ally the Free Patriotic Movement , the largest party in the now-resigned government, had not made any official statements. President Aoun on Wednesday recognized the government's resignation after nearly two weeks of unprecedented protests and asked them to remain until a new cabinet was formed. Michel Aoun "asked the government to continue business until a new cabinet is formed," said a statement from his office. He said the measure followed the constitutional provision for cases where the Lebanese government resigns.
A few hours later, in a casual conversation with journalists at the Center House, Prime Minister Hariri expressed his relief at “having offered something to the Lebanese” without wanting to say more. Hariri's TV announcement was greeted by viewers who listened to him live at various locations. This resignation came despite the clear opposition of Hezbollah and President Aoun to such a decision. In circles close to the head of state, Saad Hariri is accused of having “surprised” the president, as the decision to resign had not previously been agreed with the Baabda Palace. On Wednesday afternoon, conflicting information circulated about whether the outgoing prime minister would return to the head of the next government.
President Aoun, who received a delegation from the Maronite League at Baabda Palace late afternoon, said that "Lebanon will have a clean government" and added that "the protest opened the door to major reforms." "If we run into obstacles, people will be back on the streets," added the head of state. The political bureau of the Al Mustaqbal movement , Hariri's party, welcomed the “peaceful” character of the “popular uprising” on Thursday (October 31), despite “militia-style attempts to harm it, diverting it from its patriotic course dissuade and sect him ”, referring to the attacks by Hezbollah and the Amal movement on protesters. The Political Bureau, which met under Hariri's leadership, stressed "the patriotic identity of the popular protest movement in all regions" and declared that it had "succeeded in overcoming denominational assimilations and the barriers of blind loyalty". At the same time, the population was urged to refrain from “attempts to provoke and block roads”.
Attempts to form a government
On Sunday (November 3rd) it became known that the new government is expected to consist of 24 ministers and will be "technical-political" after "many parties have rejected the formation of a purely technocratic government," said the Kuwaiti newspaper al-Jarida With. Executive Prime Minister Saad Hariri insisted on returning to office on his own terms and has refused to relinquish the post to someone close to him, the sources added. The defense, foreign affairs, home affairs and finance portfolios would go to “non-provocative personalities” who belong to or are closely associated with political parties, the sources say; the other portfolios would go to independent or technocratic personalities.
Parliament's President Nabih Berri said on Tuesday (November 5th) that he supports "the real citizens' protest movement with all its demands, with the exception of two points: road closure, swear words and insults". He also announced that he had agreed with the parliamentary office to hold a legislative session next Tuesday to discuss a number of urgent bills "to respond to the desire of the real citizen protest movement making legitimate and legitimate demands," Berri said that the legislature will discuss “the draft law to combat corruption, the draft law to establish a financial criminal court, the draft law on old-age pensions and the draft law on general amnesty”. It deals with proposals for the passage of laws related to banking secrecy, money laundering and the recovery of stolen funds.
Executive Prime Minister Saad Hariri has refused to form a cabinet similar to the resigned government, sources from Grand Seraglio Asharq Al-Awsat said on Friday (November 8). Hariri met with President Michel Aoun on Thursday to discuss the formation of a government. After the meeting, Hariri's sources said that the resigning prime minister was open to all decisions and that his ongoing consultations were based on the belief that the phase ahead could not be the same as before the protests. It was said that Aoun was determined to find an agreement that would facilitate the formation of a government. There will be no parliamentary consultation until the president knows the shape of the next cabinet, the sources say.
Meanwhile, in the face of weeks of nationwide protests, Beirut's economy is experiencing its worst crisis since the civil war , Al Jazeera wrote on Saturday (November 9). Saad Hariri is determined that the next government will no longer have any political parties. With a cabinet of sectarism you could not secure Western support, said a source familiar with his view of the Reuters news agency . He is still trying to convince the powerful Iranian-backed Shiite Hezbollah and its ally, the Amal movement , of the need for such a technocratic government, the source said.
On Sunday (November 10th) it became known that Saad Hariri was inclined to approve proposals for the formation of a 22-member technopolitical government. The binding parliamentary consultations are expected to take place on Wednesday. According to the reports, the agreement came about at a meeting between Hariri, the adjutant to Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri , Ali Hassan Khalil, and Hussein Khalil, assistant to Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah . An envoy from French President Emmanuel Macron is due to arrive in Lebanon on Tuesday to press in the same direction.
Political talks to agree a much-needed Lebanese government are still stalled, three high-level sources said on Sunday (Nov. 10) as the powerful Hezbollah signaled that it would not be forced into concessions. The recent failure to break Lebanon's political impasse will worsen pressures on an economy gripped by the deepest crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war, amid protests against a political establishment widely considered corrupt and incapable.
Since reopening a week ago, commercial banks have tried to prevent capital flight by blocking most remittances abroad and placing restrictions on hard currency withdrawals, despite the central bank not announcing any formal capital controls. Much of Lebanon's economic crisis is due to a slowdown in capital inflows, which has tightened the US dollar and created a black market in which the Lebanese pound fell below its official key rate.
On the 25th day of the protests in Lebanon, efforts to form new governments continued; Hariri saw "positive signs of a solution to the problem of forming a government"; Ali Bazzi of the Liberation and Development Bloc, led by Spokesman Nabih Berri, said: “The hours ahead will be crucial in breaking the state of political stagnation and the Amal movement is helping to overcome obstacles and is open to relief the formation of a government that serves this country. "
On Tuesday (November 12th) it was announced that negotiations were under way on a new proposal to form a new government that would "strike a balance between the majority of political forces and the wishes of those protesting in the streets". Both Saad Hariri and Jebran Bassil do not impose any conditions, especially with regard to their personal presence in the future government. President Michel Aoun has postponed the mandatory parliamentary consultations on the election of a new prime minister in order to obtain a prior consensus on the prime minister and the form of the new one Reach government.
- Mohammad Safadi is nominated for the post of Prime Minister
Thursday evening (November 14th) it was reported that Executive Prime Minister Saad Hariri had reached an agreement with Hezbollah , the Amal Movement and the Free Patriotic Movement on the nomination of ex-finance minister and businessman Mohammed Safadi for the post of prime minister. Meanwhile, Center House sources told Hariri-affiliated Mustaqbal web news portal that discussions were about consensus on Safadi's nomination, but not the form of the new government or the participation of the al-Mustaqbal movement in the discussion. After social media activists reported the news, protests began outside Safadi's home in Tripoli. Safadi was Minister of Transport and Public Buildings in the Siniora government from 2005, and Minister of Economy and Trade in the first Hariri government (2009-11); from 2011 to 2014 he was finance minister in the Miqati government . The parliamentary consultations on the appointment of the new prime minister will take place on Monday, Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil told MTV on Friday.
Safadi was part of the Hariri-led alliance March 14 , formed after the assassination of Rafik al-Hariri, Saad's father, in 2005 and mobilized against the presence of Syrian forces, which withdrew from Lebanon in 2005 and then in years of political Captives came into conflict with Hezbollah over their weapons. In a 2009 US embassy cable published by WikiLeaks, it was described about Safadi that he had made his fortune in Saudi Arabia and was close to the Saudi royal family.
- Safadi withdraws candidacy
Reuters reported on Sunday (November 17) that, according to Lebanese media, the Lebanese businessman and former minister Mohammad Al-Safadi decided to withdraw his candidacy for the position of prime minister after being the main candidate for the major political parties agreed in 2005. In a statement released by his office, Safadi, 75, said it had been difficult to create a “harmonious” cabinet supported by all parties, Reuters news agency and Lebanese media reported late Saturday. After the proposed nomination of Mohammed Safadi for the office of prime minister was abandoned under pressure from the population and politics, there is a tendency, according to ministers close to the presidency, to entrust the executive incumbent Saad Hariri with the formation of the new government. Hariri still insists on the formation of a technocratic cabinet as a prerequisite for his return to the post, it said. Former MP Mustafa Allouch, a member of the Politburo of the Future Movement, also emphasized his support for the formation of an expert government. He stated that parliament would have enough power to control any government in terms of legislation. Support for the proposal also came from MP Simon Abi Ramia of the Strong Lebanon Bloc, who said that the only solution that could save the country would be a cabinet led by Saad Hariri and formed by experts and politicians to gain a parliamentary majority to guarantee.
In view of the nationwide protests, President Michel Aoun called on Tuesday (November 19) for a new government of technocrats to be formed. The new government will be composed of "politicians, experts and representatives of the popular movement," said Aoun during a meeting with the UN special coordinator for Lebanon, Ján Kubiš , in the Baabda Palace.
After the blockade of parliament on November 19th
Parliament's President Nabih Berri said the next day that Tuesday's “biggest winners” were “Lebanon and civil peace” after he was forced to postpone a legislative session due to a lack of quorum and roadblock protests. "Regardless of what happened yesterday, it is important that not a single drop of blood was spilled, despite a planned bloodshed plan in dark rooms," Berri said during the weekly meeting with MPs in Ain el-Tineh. He also said that "a bet on the spread of the vacuum" has been foiled.
According to reports from November 21, Hezbollah and the AMAL movement would like to intensify contacts in order to persuade Acting Prime Minister Saad Hariri to lead the new government again, the daily Al-Joumhouria reported on Thursday. The sources said the "Shiite duo" have again insisted that Hariri appoint the new government as "an appropriate figure to lead the government in the current circumstances." They said the persistence of Hezbollah and AMAL stems from the fact that Hariri is currently the “only” candidate for the formation of the next government, which “will inevitably be a government of technocrats made up of a very limited number of politicians becomes". Meanwhile, Hariri's circles said he refused to lead a government of politicians, while other sources said he categorically opposed the formation of a new government.
On Thursday (November 21), President Michel Aoun attributed the delay in the formation of a government to Lebanon's "contradictions" when he again called on the demonstrators to enter into dialogue with him. "The time is not for talking, but for hard work ... The challenges are dangerous and we have wasted a lot of time," said Aoun in an address to the nation on the eve of Lebanon's Independence Day. "The government should have been formed and started operating by now, but the contradictions in Lebanese politics require caution in order to avoid a more dangerous situation," added the president. Renewing his invitation to protesters to send representatives to the presidential palace for talks, Aoun said he would “examine closely their real requirements and means of implementing them.” Referring to the recent anti-corruption campaign in the country, the president said, “The recent protests in the population have broken some taboos and protective provisions, prompted the judiciary to act and called on the legislative authority to give priority to a number of draft anti-corruption legislation. "
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Despite the current protests, Lebanon's top politicians took part in a military parade on the country's 76th Independence Day. They first performed together on Friday (November 22nd); President Michel Aoun, Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri and the resigning Prime Minister Saad Hariri sat together under a canopy in the Ministry of Defense. The traditional military parade in central Beirut has been canceled as the site is still occupied by a protest camp more than a month after the anti-government demonstrations broke out.
- Political paralysis
"Nearly a month after Prime Minister Saad Hariri's cabinet resigned, political leaders failed to elect a new government under popular pressure," wrote the UK Globe Post. The United States, France, the World Bank and the rating agencies have urged all state institutions to speed up the formation of the cabinet and warn of a worsening economic and political crisis. In the latest diplomatic push, senior foreign minister Richard Moore was in Lebanon on Monday to meet senior officials and "underline the urgent need to form a government," the British embassy said. "The people of Lebanon have made a clear call to improve governance and they should be heard," Moore was quoted as saying.
The Executive Prime Minister Saad Hariri openly stated on Tuesday (November 26) that he was withdrawing his candidacy for the MP office. "I announce to the Lebanese people that I strictly adhere to the rule of 'not me, someone else'," he said in a written statement. Hariri did not name an alternative candidate, but said his decision was aimed at "opening doors for a solution" that would lead us out of the political impasse. He hoped that President Michel Aoun would "immediately call for binding parliamentary consultations to appoint a new prime minister." Hariri also insisted that a new government of experts was needed to get Lebanon out of its crisis.
President Michel Aoun received Deputy Secretary General of the Arab League Ambassador , Hossam Zaki, in Baabda on Thursday, conveying the league's readiness to help Lebanon out of its political and economic impasse, the National News Agency reported. The Arab League is ready to support Lebanon in this delicate phase and to provide any help it needs to overcome the crisis, said Zaki; the Arab League is interested in Lebanon's stability and civil peace. In previous media reports, a message from the Arab League to Lebanese government agencies stressed the need to “take into account the legitimate aspirations of the Lebanese people.” President Michel Aoun has not yet held any consultations with the parliamentary blocs about the election of a new prime minister (as of November 27th ).
- MP candidate Samir Khatib
The chances of the engineer Samir Khatib to lead the new government have increased, LBCI reported on Thursday (November 28), which could lead to a complete agreement on the form of government and its head of government. Samir Khatib, who has little political experience, is a successful businessman and a close friend of the current Executive Prime Minister Saad Hariri. Khatib is Executive Vice President of Khatib & Alami, a global engineering company active in consulting, design and project management , ranked 40th in the world according to 2017 statistics. Media reports said that the main political parties in Lebanon (Hezbollah, Amal Movement, Free Patriotic Movement and MP Saad Hariri) had agreed to elect Samir Khatib as prime minister of the next cabinet. The decision will be taken during the parliamentary consultations, which are due to take place in the first week of December.
According to information from the broadcaster LBCI (December 3), the nomination of Samir al-Khatib is not yet complete. Another candidate named is businessman Fouad Makhzoumi, chairman of the National Dialogue Party, and Hariri's return is not excluded, the sources said. on Tuesday (December 3), rival Lebanon leaders appeared to be nearing consensus on Samir Khatib's support for the prime minister, The Daily Star snapped; This is hoped to break the months-long cabinet blockade that resulted from Prime Minister Saad Hariri's resignation under pressure from nationwide anti-government street protests.
"The new government will be technopolitical"
The new government will be techno-political and consist of 24 ministers - six political figures as ministers of state and 18 technocrats and representatives of the protest movement, media reports said on Tuesday evening (December 3) when the engineer and businessman Samir Khatib was the consensus candidate for the post of the minister-president emerged. “Ministers Ali Hassan Khalil, Mohammed Fneish and Salim Jreissati will certainly return to the new government as ministers of state, while [Parliament] speaker Nabih Berri holds on to the financial portfolio, [ex-] Prime Minister Saad Hariri on the interior portfolio and the head of the Free Patriotic Movement Gebran Bassil insists clinging to the energy portfolio, "al-Jadeed quoted TV sources.
“Six seats will be allocated to the popular protest movement, while two seats will be allocated to the Druze community. If Walid Jumblat (leader of the Progressive Socialist Party) refuses to attend, one of the seats will be allocated to the Lebanese Democratic Party while the other will be allocated to the protest movement, "the sources added. As for the Christian axis, seven seats will be allocated to the Free Patriotic Movement and President Michel Aoun, one seat to the Taschnag party, one seat to the Marada movement and three seats to the protest movement. "No agreement has been reached to grant the government exceptional powers and it will work on drafting a new electoral law," the sources continued. President Michel Aoun on Thursday hoped that the new government "will be formed as soon as possible to deal with the issues that need urgent attention." Aoun added that the new government "builds trust between the state and the To restore citizens ”. "The priorities of the new government will be to carry out the necessary reforms in the various sectors, to continue the process of fighting corruption and to remedy the shortcomings in the work of state institutions," the president continued. Aoun announced that the mandatory parliamentary consultations on the nomination of a prime minister-designate will take place on Monday (December 9th).
The parties still have to decide whether the government will consist of 18 or 24 ministers and how many ministers from the previous government will be represented in the new cabinet, reported the Saudi newspaper Ashaq al-Awsat on Friday (December 6). It is planned that around four ministers from the resigned government will receive ministerial seats in the new cabinet, including Nada al-Bustani from the Free Patriotic Movement, Salim Jreissati from the Presidential Party, Ali Hassan Khalil from the Aamal party and Mohammed Fnesih from Hezbollah. "The Al-Mustaqbal movement and the Progressive Socialist Party are supposed to name personalities outside politics who represent them," the source says. Regarding the dispute over the interior and foreign ministries and Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil's insistence on receiving the former, the sources pointed out to Asharq al-Awsat that "discussions are still taking place in this context."
- Samir Khatib withdraws candidacy
The Lebanese Sunnis want Saad Al-Hariri to become prime minister of the next government, businessman Samir Khatib said on Sunday after meeting with the top Sunni cleric in Lebanon. Hariri had said he would only return as prime minister if he could lead a government of line ministers that he believed would be best able to handle the crisis and attract foreign aid. But his request has so far been rejected by groups such as the powerful Shiite party Hezbollah and its ally Aoun. Both say the government must involve politicians. The Presidency postponed the Sunday consultations from Monday 9 December to Monday 16 December.
President Michel Aoun has postponed parliamentary consultations a second time to discuss more about the formation of a government, according to a statement from his office on Monday (December 16).
- After the outbreaks of violence on 14./15. December
Interior Minister Raya al-Hassan announced today that she has instructed the country's security forces to open a "swift and transparent" investigation after dozens of people had been injured in clashes in Beirut the night before. In her statement, Minister Hassan addressed the demonstrators and warned them of the presence of parties trying to exploit the legitimate protests for political purposes to cause clashes between them and the security forces. She stressed that the security forces are working to protect the demonstrators and their right to demonstrate.
Saad Hariri, who is the only MP candidate in December 2019, despite having self-excluded last month, called for the postponement "to avoid a nomination without the participation of a major Christian bloc". The Maronite-Christian-Lebanese Armed Forces Party (LF) has reportedly said it will refuse to nominate Hariri or anyone else for the prime ministry that has to go to a Sunni Muslim under the complex Lebanese system of denominational power-sharing. Other Christian groups have protested Hariri's plan to appoint a cabinet of technocrats. The Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) Aouns has insisted that the cabinet must include politicians, as does the allied Hezbollah. Anti-government protesters meanwhile said they rejected Hariri's reappointment because he is part of the ruling elite that has failed to cope with a troubled economy, rising prices, high unemployment, poor public services and widespread corruption. They want an independent, non-sectarian government.
Nomination of Hassan Diab (December 19)
The President of Lebanon on Thursday (December 19) asked university professor Hassan Diab , a former minister supported by Hezbollah, to form a new government. Michel Aoun named Diab Prime Minister after a day of consultation after winning a simple majority in the 128-member parliament. 69 parliamentarians, including the parliamentary bloc of the Shiite Hezbollah and Amal movements , as well as a group affiliated with President Michel Aoun gave him their votes. He did not get the support of the country's main Sunni politicians, including former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, which would make it difficult for him to form a new government.
The hitherto little known former education minister and university professor Hassan Diab is neither an established party member nor a supporter of a particular group. He described himself on his website as "one of the rare technocrats ministers" since Lebanon's independence in the 1940s. More than five hours into the consultations, Diab had received more nominations than the only other contender, International Criminal Court Judge Nawaf Salam, and was on his way to succeed Hariri. Lebanon's Sunni politicians continued to support Diab, raising concerns that the next government will polarize and be unable to tackle the urgent reforms demanded by protesters and the international community.
After his appointment, Diab announced that the new government would change a lot, particularly with regard to the female presence, which would only be specialists with the necessary skills. In relation to the revolution and the current movements, he expressed his understanding of the struggles of the people they have faced for years. He affirmed that it is their right to assert their rights and express their views, and that it is the duty of the government to understand them and work to solve their problems. Diab also pledged to prioritize these issues, especially those related to their economic condition, as the poverty rate and people's needs increase. Diab said his goal was to form a government of specialists and that he only asked for a short period of time. He hoped that the government to be formed would be supported by all Lebanese parties. The prime minister insisted he was independent, stating that he did not follow any party and had not met any member of Hezbollah or the Amal movement prior to his appointment.
It was only on Wednesday (December 18) that the previous head of government Hariri gave up his attempts to form an expert government. Hariri said he had “worked seriously” to follow the demands of the demonstrators over the past few weeks and to overcome the “severe social and economic crisis” by forming an expert government. In doing so, however, he encountered too great resistance. Hassan Diab sees no dependence of the technocratic government he is aiming at on the Shiite militia Hezbollah. In an interview with Deutsche Welle (DW), the university professor and former education minister said of the allegations: “That is absurd. The new government will be the face of Lebanon, not the government of any political group. "Although Hezbollah is viewed as a terrorist organization in the US, Diab expects political backing from Washington as well:" We are striving for a government that differs from the previous ones Governments in Lebanon are different. This applies to both the inclusion of specialist skills and the proportion of women, ”says Diab. He therefore expects the "full support" of Washington. Diab plans to have the new technocratic government formed in six weeks at the latest. Against the background of the economic crisis and ongoing protests against corruption and the clientele system, Diab made the fight against poverty one of his priorities.
Diab hopes to form a government of around 20 ministers of independents and technocrats within a few weeks. Hezbollah and its allies had previously insisted that a new government be made up of politicians and experts. However, on Saturday (December 22), Diab declared: "All parties agree with me on a government composed of independents and experts, including Hezbollah." On the issue of a "specialist government," Prime Minister-designate Hassan appeared Diab on Monday (December 23) on a collision course with Hezbollah and the Amal movement, The Daily Star wrote.
Michel Aoun and Spokesman Nabih Berri have reportedly asked Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab to "slow down" his efforts to form a new government after he "felt that he was ready to form it within a few days," Saudi daily Asharq al reported -Awsat on Friday (December 27th). Sources from the two presidencies told the daily that a number of reasons sparked Aoun and Berri's request. One of them is that the names proposed by Diab for the allocation of seats in the new cabinet are "unknown" to the two.
Hassan Diab covered the cabinet's details and portfolios and the remaining obstacles after a two-hour meeting with Michel Aoun. Diab insists on forming an expert government with just 18 ministers, the sources added. The formation of a new government was eventually postponed until after the New Year, as Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab struggled to "overcome the remaining hurdles," reports The Daily Star.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah MP Mohammed Raad warned on December 29 that the “strong” parties should control the country if chaos breaks out in Lebanon. "We're trying to fix the falling wall, but there are individuals who are still pushing this wall enough to make it fall and this is our story with the government that is being formed," Raad said.
Sources told the LBCI on Jan. 19 that Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab had refused to form a cabinet of 20 ministers. The next government will only consist of 18 ministers. The same sources added that the discussion is now tackling the possibility of naming Amale Haddad as deputy prime minister without assigning her a ministerial portfolio in order to overcome the hurdles the educational process is facing. The sources concluded that Marada leader Sleiman Frangieh had failed to inform Diab that he would not attend the upcoming cabinet.
Government formation
On December 30, Hezbollah and the AMAL movement agreed with Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab to form a purely technocratic government. The government roster has reached the stage of final selection of a few names, and large numbers of portfolios and candidates have been finalized, the sources said. Regarding the representation of women, sources say there will be five to seven women ministers. Economist Ghazi Wazni agreed to be appointed finance minister, while Ziad Baroud is appointed minister of justice and Demianos Qattar is appointed minister of foreign affairs. Given that the government could be formed in the first few days of 2020, until some budding ministers arrive from abroad, the sources noted that the question of merging some portfolios is the last point to be considered .
According to The Daily Star, the government is composed of: nine Christian ministers: four Maronites, three Orthodox, one Catholic and one Armenian. Nine Muslim ministers are also planned, four Shiite, four Sunni and one Druze. The Shiite personalities, according to the daily, are the economic expert Ghazi Wazni, who could be appointed finance minister, as well as Abdul Halim Fadlallah and Aliaa al-Moqdar. Tarek Majzoub, Abdulrahman al-Bizri, Othman Sultan (Ministry of Telecommunications) and the retired Brigadier General Basem Khaled or the retired Navy Brigadier General Hosni haben (Ministry of the Interior) were proposed for the Sunni portion.
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During the government formation phase at the turn of the year, ex-Nissan and Renault boss Carlos Ghosn fled from Japan to his homeland Lebanon, which made headlines in the region. However, the drama of his escape was only matched by one more story that predicted Ghosn might be appointed cabinet minister in the government of Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab, Sami Moubayed wrote for Gulf News. Ghosn was bailed out and awaiting trial in Japan for tax evasion and financial misconduct. If he were given immunity as a member of the Lebanese government, it would prevent his extradition to Tokyo. "He is being seriously considered for the Ministry of Industry," said Fadi Walid Akoum, a well-known Lebanese analyst. Speaking to Gulf News , he added, "Given the corruption allegations, he will be automatically dismissed by the Lebanese streets that rebelled against corruption last October." On Thursday (January 2), the President's office denied that Aoun was and Ghosn, but Ghosn is due to speak to the media next week.
According to Asharq al-Awsat , several sources confirmed on Thursday that the obstacles to the representation of the Sunnis and Druze in the new Lebanese government had been removed, as talks are expected to begin on Friday to resolve the problem of Christians who are the portfolio of the foreign and Department of Energy. At the request of Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab, all parties have agreed that the new cabinet should not include members of the outgoing government. Informed sources predicted the new cabinet's announcement by the end of the week, if an agreement was reached between Diab and the Foreign Minister and the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil , on the names of ministers to take on energy and foreign affairs. Diab was also able to win over former judge Fawzi Adham for the Ministry of the Interior, a representative of the Sunnis. Lebanese Armed Forces Chairman Samir Geagea said in a statement that leaked news about the new government line-up was not reassuring, in particular that the political parties responsible for the current crisis were behind the appointment of ministers.
- Situation after the killing of Qasem Soleimani (January 3)
The targeted killing of the Iranian general Qasem Soleimani by a US military drone in Iraq put a considerable strain on the situation in Lebanon with all its political and security difficulties, wrote Asharq al-Awsat on January 4th. The Hezbollah party is directly involved in the development and has vowed to continue Soleimani's mission and avenge his death. It remains to be seen, the paper reported, whether the assassination will accelerate the formation of a new Lebanese government. Sources close to Hezbollah said the process would be delayed. They told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Iran-backed party's priorities "changed" after Tehran came into direct confrontation with the United States. This consequently requires the party to be politically represented in the government, having previously agreed to form a cabinet of technocrats to meet the demands of the protesters.
Asharq Al-Awsat cited sources that Aoun and Diab had different views on the Christian quota. The formation of the government faces further complications as of January 8, as the Shiite duo - represented by the Amal movement and Hezbollah - prefer not to rush the government formation process until a clearer regional situation emerges following the assassination of the Iranian commander al-Quds Brigades Qasem Soleimani . The LBCI TV broadcaster said there were fears that a government of technocrats may not be able to face threats to Lebanon following the murder of Soleimani, adding that a national unity government led by prime ministers is in place Saad Hariri would have to be formed, the Forces Lebanese, the al-Mustaqbal movement and the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP). Meanwhile, Hariri's parliamentary bloc al-Mustaqbal warned against the formation of a "unilateral" government.
Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab's efforts to form a government of specialists suffered a serious setback on Monday (January 13).
On Wednesday (January 15), final obstacles to the formation of the new government were resolved with the approval of the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Jebran Bassil, after which Demianos Qattar was assigned the work portfolio, LBCI TV said. The government is expected to be announced on Jan. 17, the broadcaster added. As a result, the occupation consists of 18 ministers, including four women. The "Shiite duo" received five portfolios after merging the agriculture portfolio with the culture or information portfolio, knowing that Walid Jumblat, leader of the Progressive Socialist Party, will not attend, LBCI added. Accordingly, Ghazi Wazni is to take over the financial portfolio, Nassif Hitti the external portfolio, Talal al-Ladqi for the internal portfolio and Michel Menassa the defense portfolio, the latter also acting as deputy prime minister. President Michel Aoun and the Free Patriotic Movement, meanwhile, will receive the energy portfolio (Raimond Ghajar), the economy (a member of the Haddad family), justice (Marie-Claude Najem) and the environment (Manal Musallem). Meanwhile, the Marada movement receives the public works portfolio (Lamia Yammine Doueihi) while the Tashnag party receives the tourism and culture portfolio or the tourism and information portfolio. In the meantime, Diab will appoint the Sunni ministers (Talal al-Ladqi for the interior, Talal Hawat for telecommunications and Tarek Majzoub for sports and youth).
More than a month after his appointment and almost three months after the resignation of his predecessor Saad Hariri under street pressure, the cabinet of 20 ministers of Prime Minister Hassan Diab was announced on Tuesday (January 21). The academic and former education minister, little known in Lebanon until last month, insisted in his first remarks as prime minister that his cabinet was a technocratic one that wanted to meet protesters' demands. "This is a government that represents the aspirations of the protesters who have been mobilizing across the country for more than three months," he said. His government will endeavor to comply with their demands for an independent judiciary, for the recovery of misappropriated funds and for the fight against illegal profits. Diab added that the government will fight unemployment and oppose a new electoral law calling every minister in his cabinet a "technocratic" minister.
The Diab cabinet resigned on August 10 because of the devastating explosion in the port of Beirut. This decision came under pressure after several ministers left office.
Hezbollah's role and its implications for the Middle East
In view of the crisis, some Lebanese politicians and journalists blamed Hezbollah for the country's economic situation even before the current mass protests broke out. They alleged that the organization's work serving Iran caused difficulties for Lebanon and brought its economy to collapse. Hezbollah blamed the crisis on Riad Salameh, the governor of the Lebanese central bank, who implemented the sanctions against the organization, although this allegation has been largely denied. It was found that very few voices in Lebanon have explicitly blamed Hezbollah for the dire economic situation since the protests began. This may be due to the desire of the demonstrators to avoid any sectarian or political orientation that could alienate parts of the public and thus reduce their momentum, when organizing demonstrations that are currently considered impartial.
Although the protest movement was expressly impartial and not sectarian for a long time, the nationwide road blockades in particular revealed the old divisions in Lebanon. After Hezbollah's General Secretary, Hassan Nasrallah , initially described the protest movement as "spontaneous" and welcomed its demand for "unprecedented reforms", he insinuated on October 25, 2019 that it was being manipulated by "foreign and hostile powers" . Almost at the same time as Nasrallah's speech, supporters of Hezbollah and the allied Amal movement led by parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri attacked the protest camp on Martyrs Square in the Lebanese capital Beirut .
Above all, however, the protests are unprecedented, as Hezbollah also adopted a completely different, very unusual stance in the further course, according to Hanin Ghaddar ( Foreign Policy ). Hassan Nasrallah , who had campaigned for decades to protect impoverished and fighting injustice, is now determined to join the state authorities against the people on the streets. This is a serious setback for Hezbollah because for the first time since Hezbollah was founded in the 1980s, the Lebanese Shiites are turning against them. In Nabatieh , the group's heartland in southern Lebanon, Shiite protesters even burned the offices of Hezbollah leaders.
For Hanin Ghaddar, the protests in both Iraq and Lebanon against corruption and a lack of economic reforms, which also rocked Shiite cities, have shown that the Iranian system of influence in the region has failed. For the Shiite communities in Iraq and Lebanon, “Tehran and its representatives have failed to translate military and political victories into a socio-economic vision. Simply put, Iran's resistance narrative didn't put any food on the table. "
According to Christian Weisflog (Neue Zürcher Zeitung), Hezbollah will try to “undermine the protest and divide the Lebanese people again.” For example, on Tuesday “a strange demonstration took place in front of the central bank, with a small group of young people Chanted anti-American slogans to people that had not previously been heard during the protests. "Everywhere the US is, there are problems," said one of the whip. Everything was filmed by the television station Al Mayadeen , which often has a clearly pro-Iranian and pro-Syrian list. ”Domestically, however, not a few would see Hezbollah as a cause of the economic misery. “It ties the country to the Syrian-Iranian axis, which is waging an endless war against Israel. With the tough American sanctions against Tehran and Hezbollah, the price Lebanon pays for them has risen considerably again. "
Bilal Saab, an analyst at the Middle East Institute , a Washington-based think tank, said on Friday, October 25, that while the impact of the protests on Hezbollah's political and military strength should not be overstated, the demonstrations undoubtedly increase the confidence of the people Group shook. "[These protests] are taking place across the country in places where you never expected Shiite activism against the representatives," Saab said. "The audacity, the widespread nature of it - it is certainly new, and it is not good news for the organization." Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah's statement that the demonstrators are being manipulated by "foreign powers" who are taking advantage of the unrest for their interests led to divisions among supporters of Hezbollah, some of whom were still protesting on Saturday morning.
“Hezbollah has most to lose from the political changes that the protesters are demanding. They are calling for a civil state that is accountable and transparent, "said Amal Saad, professor of political science at Lebanese University on October 27, adding that the political system can only be" shaken "if there are disagreements among the various political ones Ruling class parties to emerge as to what to do next.
Nasrallah's position divided the Shiite community over the protests, but also promised to pursue the implementation of Hariri's reforms, wrote Makram Najmuddine (Al Monitor). The Hezbollah leader and his party are faced with a very challenging task: to keep the promise, to fight corruption and to ensure that all promises are kept. "In other words, Hezbollah may have to confront some of its allies and show people a path to change or ignore the whole idea and lose many of those who have long trusted the group," the author concludes.
Situation after Hariri's resignation
For Avi Issacharoff ( The Times of Israel ) is Hariri's resignation and the angry protests in Lebanon are bad news for Hezbollah. The demonstrations that overthrew the prime minister would now aim to "overhaul the entire failed political system in Beirut - which the terrorist group relied on to maintain control." In the face of large numbers of Syrian refugees and rising unemployment reminiscent of places like the Gaza Strip , growing national debt and, above all, a paralyzed, rotten and corrupt political system, the future of Lebanon looks bleak. However, Hezbollah believes it is better to rule such a country than to rely on a normal, functioning Lebanon in which the leaders seek the benefit of the entire country and not a specific sect or group.
The respected commentator on Middle East affairs, Jonathan Spyer, recently analyzed the extent to which Hezbollah, as Iran's proxy, has swallowed the Lebanese state. The shell of the state has remained intact to serve both as a protective cover and to carry out those aspects of administration in which Hezbollah and Iran are not interested. As a result, in important areas of Lebanese life today, it is impossible to pinpoint exactly where the official state begins and Hezbollah's shadow state ends.
The Lebanese Alliance of March 14th is a coalition of politicians who speak out against the Syrian regime and Hezbollah. March 14, 2005 marked the start of the Cedar Revolution, a protest movement sparked by the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri - Saad's father - earlier this year. The demonstrations were directed against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad , suspected of being behind the murder, and his Iranian-backed allies in Lebanon, Hezbollah, who were widely believed to be the perpetrators.
According to Neville Teller (Eurasia News), many Lebanese, including those of the Shiites, would oppose Hezbollah fighting Muslims in a neighboring country at the behest of Iran - activities far from the purpose for which the organization was founded. They are annoyed by the rising death toll among Lebanese fighters. The mass unrest would have rocked Lebanon earlier - it had its part in the upheavals of the “ Arab Spring ” in 2011 - but for the first time, protests have also been observed in southern Lebanon, an area that is politically tightly controlled by Hezbollah like in the rest of the country. That the Lebanese masses are rebelling against the stranglehold Hezbollah has put on the country is perhaps the most hopeful aspect of the current situation, Teller said.
According to Eliora Katz, the protests in Iraq and Lebanon are also “an uprising against Iran”. Iran's plans for regional hegemony depend on being seen as the protectors of loyal Shiite Muslims - but these are precisely the people who lead mass protests against Iranian rule interests in Iraq and Lebanon. Even some in Hezbollah's Shiite base have joined the call for an overhaul of the entire political system. As funding from the Islamic Republic, which accounts for around 70% of Hezbollah's income, has fallen, the group has had to cut wages for its militants and social services for its constituents. It was too early to say whether the emerging political revolts in Lebanon and Iraq could withstand the backlash from Iranian-backed militias and snipers long enough to develop into a significant organized political opposition.
According to Adhan Saouli, Hezbollah's survival is not at stake; their struggle against Israel , their social agencies employing tens of thousands, and the political capital of their charismatic leader Hassan Nasrallah continued to generate broad support for the movement in Lebanon. However, Hezbollah fears that the uprising could spread to its own ally, the Amal Movement , accused of corruption. This could spark confrontations in the Shiite areas and threaten Hezbollah's alliance with Amal, which Hezbollah believes is what its internal and external rivals are hoping for. Hezbollah's cautious response to the protests could further curtail its legitimacy, this time within its own supporters. However, Hezbollah supports actual reforms, not least to preserve Lebanon's internal stability. Fear of financial and economic collapse will use the uprising to persuade the reluctant elite to implement real reforms. But these reforms will not be as revolutionary as the demonstrators imagine, so the author's summary.
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Hezbollah will have a “ proactive ” presence in the future Lebanese government , said Sheikh Naim Kassim , the deputy general secretary of the Lebanese resistance movement. "" Hezbollah will fulfill its task to meet the demands of the population, to implement reforms and to fight corruption [...] ". The head of the Hezbollah MP, Mohammed Raad, stressed on Sunday at Hezbollah Martyrs' Day in Nabatiyeh:" They are martyrs who have created the sovereign atmosphere in which every change or reform seeker and every anti-corruption demonstrator can be active . ” Raad emphasized that his party shares the goal of fighting corruption, lifting immunity from corruption and regaining stolen money. However, the Hezbollah official also warned the protest movement against “ making arbitrary accusations ” or “ hurling insults at icons, especially those related to leading the purest, most honorable, and noble people. ” He warned that anyone was involved in the movement infiltrate “ to lead them into a course that will deny the land Rushes towards the aspirations of the enemy, ”added Raad.
"Hezbollah is experiencing a paradox right now," said Nicholas Blanford, a Beirut-based Atlantic Council official and author of Warriors of God: Inside Hezbollah's Thirty-Year Struggle Against Israel in an interview with The Christian Science Monitor . "Although Hezbollah was neither militarily nor politically stronger, it is simultaneously confronted with a multitude of weaknesses that it had not previously had to deal with." One reason is the enormous and rapid expansion to perhaps 25,000 fully trained fighters after Hezbollah center Halted in 2006 after 33 days in a devastating conflict with Israel. But this clearly Shiite belief structure, which reveres resistance and jihad as a religious obligation, is getting thinner and thinner among newer recruits, especially given a monthly salary of $ 600.
The social media platform Twitter blocked the account of Hezbollah General Secretary Sayyed Hassan Nassrallah's son Jawad Nasrallah on Tuesday (November 12). The company said the move was justified because the account "violated the rules of Twitter". Twitter previously closed Hezbollah's official Al-Manar TV account and blocked most of its sites without warning.
According to As'ad Abu Khalil, a Lebanese-American professor at California State University, Stanislaus , Hezbollah could have continued to support the protests instead of backing off the streets, even though Nasrallah feared sectarian provocations familiar to the other side . Yet Hezbollah's mass base is fed up with massive corruption and socio-economic injustices. Hezbollah grassroots fully supports the Hezbollah resistance movement (and this applies to the entire Shiite community) but does not tolerate the maintenance of corrupt order. The Shiites know that Nasrallah leads a strict and ascetic life and that he has never come into contact with corruption. This well-deserved reputation for incorruptibility does not apply to all Hezbollah politicians and cadres. In a recent speech, Nasrallah offered to bring people within Hezbollah accused of corruption to justice. But that's not enough, because the judiciary is the last place to fight corruption and punish the guilty. Protests in Lebanon are persistent and public anger is real, despite recent attempts by the ruling class to exploit and infiltrate the protest movement. But it was ironic that Hezbollah (the party least accused of corruption and misappropriation of public funds) chose to defend the political order, and in particular a weakened president.
According to Elie Fawaz ( al-Arabiya ), Hezbollah is currently at an impasse. The US sanctions against the criminal and illegal financial empire of Hezbollah from Latin America to Africa, combined with a campaign of maximum pressure on Iran, are putting a heavy strain on the group's wallet. The Lebanese economy has practically collapsed because it has always relied on the artificial bubble created by the illegal activities of Hezbollah, for which Lebanon is the center. The state is out of funds and the world is watching everything collapse and calling for serious reforms before financial aid is considered. According to local statistics, 160,000 employees have either lost their jobs or received half a salary since the crisis began. Inflation has risen significantly and the Lebanese pound has so far lost a third of its value against the dollar. Remittances, a major source of capital inflows, have decreased significantly due to a lack of confidence in the banking sector. The number of protesters is expected to increase in the coming months. If it has been relatively easy for Hezbollah to control the Lebanese state and political system, it could prove to be much more difficult to control the streets and protesters, says Fawaz. Resorting to violence, while an option, will most likely increase the possibility of civil war, which the party is likely to want to avoid as it will significantly weaken its geopolitical position. Meanwhile, accepting the demonstrators' terms, which would require transparency, accountability, an end to corruption and the recovery of funds stolen from politicians, would mean an end to the existing political system that controls Hezbollah. The future of Lebanon is uncertain, Fawaz sums up. However, one thing is certain: the Lebanon emerging from this tunnel will be different.
Effects on Iran
The developments in Iraq and Lebanon, two Arab states in which the Iranian regime boasted control of its capitals, are of great concern to the Islamic Republic of Iran, MEP Struan Stevenson wrote on November 14th. In his view, the mullahs' regime has long viewed the Middle East as its fiefdom and sees a decline in influence in these areas as a prelude to new protests and even a national uprising in their own country. The growing tensions of hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of Lebanese, fed up with Hezbollah and Iran interfering in their internal affairs, would have sent a disturbing signal to Tehran. The steady escalation of such protests in the Middle East has shifted the focus to the mullah's policy of aggressive expansionism. The Iranian regime knows that after four decades of intensive investment in the region to gain significant influence, protesters in Iraq and Lebanon pose a great threat to Iran's interests by challenging the political status quo. Groups with any affiliation to the Islamic Republic are under severe pressure and are widely condemned by the Iraqi and Lebanese people. Even more significant is the fact that the current uprising is rooted in the Shiite communities, where Iran has long enjoyed great support. Hezbollah has built up a large sphere of influence in southern Lebanon, primarily through cash that the Iranian mullahs provided at the expense of their own people, 80 percent of whom are already struggling with poverty. Despite these measures, Hezbollah is feeling the heat of the Lebanese people, who are demanding big changes and refusing to accept mere reforms originally proposed by their government. Iran, reacting desperately, blames the West, as always, for sparking and fueling the current unrest. With typical hypocrisy, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has accused foreign governments of meddling in Iraq and Lebanon. In recent remarks, Khamenei "accused the US and Western intelligence agencies, with the financial support of the evil countries, of sparking the flames of chaos."
Two days after Stevenson's article appeared, demonstrations against rationing and increases in gasoline prices broke out in several cities in Iran. The government in Iran on Friday restricted the issue of gasoline and increased fuel prices by more than 50 percent. President Hassan Rouhani intends to use the additional income to finance new aid for 60 million people in need.
According to Romy Haber (Spiked), now (December 3rd) is not the best time for Hezbollah when its great patron saint, Iran, has problems thanks to US sanctions and when anti-Iranian government uprisings over Iran and the in neighboring Iraq. These are possibly significant times, the author suggested. “Hezbollah is stuck. If the protesters win, they lose their power; If it suppresses the protesters, it will lose its support. And the Islamic Republic of Iran is also losing its grip in the two countries in which it has so far exercised such influence: Iraq and Lebanon. "
Situation after the killing of Qasem Soleimani (January 3)
Military expert Nizar Abdul Qader said the Hezbollah party and Iran's allies had options in the region. Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat , he ruled out the possibility that Hezbollah would opt for retaliation by attacking Israel, realizing that this would lead to a large-scale war that Iran "absolutely does not want" . The party could instead resort to an anti-American escalation, be it through provocations against the US embassy in Lebanon or along Iran's various fronts in the region. The retaliation could take place in countries allied with the United States, he added. With observers still pressing for the formation of a new government, former MP Fares Soaid, Coordinator of the March 8 Alliance General Secretariat, told Asharq Al-Awsat: “Any government formed by Hezbollah and its allies will be weak against the massive developments in the region. ”The government's agenda will include the confrontation with the American government, he predicted. "If the Foreign Ministry in the Executive Cabinet is so benevolent to Iran and completely disregards Lebanon's interests, how about a government that is at the mercy of Hezbollah?" Soaid said the attack was a turning point in the region. “Iran built its legitimacy on the military and security strength of Soleimani. This clout is gone and with it the power of Iran begins to decline. "
Hezbollah had promised that the new government would not have a confrontational position towards the West. Hezbollah MP Walid Sukkarieh told Al Jazeera that this attitude had not changed with the killing of Qasem Solemani . "There is a popular movement in the streets that says they want a technocratic government and we agree," he said. "A government of confrontation would not help to save Lebanon from its bad economic situation, for which we will definitely need God's help."
The head of the Free Patriotic Movement , Gebran Bassil , announced on January 7th that despite the escalation in the region, the formation of a technocratic government is still an appropriate decision as he denied obstructing the formation of the new cabinet. The FPM chief denied that he was coordinating the government formation process, saying: "The government is formed by the prime minister-designate in consultation with the president, and we give our opinion like the rest of the blocs."
Role of the Lebanese army
- Situation at the beginning of the protest movement
Since the protest movement began in Lebanon, protesters have made numerous demands to help the country's armed forces arrest the politicians accused of corruption - and even to rule the country for a transitional period, reports Al Jazeera . Flags embossed with the Lebanese Army seal and nationalist music praising soldiers for their service were a regular feature of daily protests calling for the country's leaders to be held accountable for years of corruption after the civil war. The shout “God is with the army” is often loud when soldiers walk past the demonstrations. The army is "the only institution where they don't care whether you are Christian or Muslim, and I hope they lead the next stage," said an army veteran. This is considered to be one of the few respected state institutions in Lebanon. It is also one of the few institutions that is not affected by the general sectarianism that is ubiquitous in other state institutions such as the local police force. However, the increasing involvement of the army in cracking down on the protest movement has complicated the situation, says Timour Azhari (Al Jazeera). The conflicting feelings of some soldiers were perhaps best captured at el-Dib prison on Wednesday (October 23) when a soldier burst into tears as protesters sang the Lebanese national anthem in front of him.
Despite their heavily armed appearance, the Lebanese soldiers do not seem at their core to be immune to the strong emotions that wafted through the nationwide protests against the government last week. Several videos, circulated on local news and social media on Wednesday, show soldiers stationed at various demonstrations who were overwhelmed with emotion after being touched by protesters.
The British Embassy in Lebanon raised up to US $ 25 million (€ 22 million) in aid to the Lebanese armed forces over the 2019-2022 period as part of its "ongoing support to Lebanon's only legitimate defender" on Friday November 1st announced. The day before, US officials had told Reuters that the US government of Donald Trump had withheld US $ 105 million in security aid for Lebanon two days after the resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri.
During the nationwide protests, the army played a key role in protecting civilians and maintaining the peaceful nature of the demonstrations in the face of provocations from Hezbollah supporters, activists and civilians, Nohad Topalian wrote in Al-Machriq (November 7). The army commander, General Joseph Aoun, met with the chiefs of security agencies on October 26 to discuss measures to facilitate free traffic on major roads and the safety of demonstrators. The Army Command reaffirmed the right to peaceful protest and expression, protected by the provisions of the Constitution and the law.
Since the protests began on October 17, the Lebanese army "has recognized its duty to defend citizens, whoever they are, wherever they are, " said a military source from Army Command Al-Mashareq. The Army Command "also communicated with politicians to convince them that the solution must be political and not military, the military source said." The Army Command did not intend for a minute to suppress the demonstrators and to forcibly open the streets "He said, pointing out that this option was" categorically rejected. "The Lebanese army has ensured the safety of the protesters since the start of the demonstrations," despite the pressure originally put on the army command to suppress us " said civil activist Ihab Mounjed.
According to Fadia Kiwan, a professor at St. Joseph University in Beirut, the army is one of the few state institutions that enjoys broad support and public respect, as it is seen as a unifying force in this deeply divided country. Much of the protest went on to defuse tension and protect protesters, although Hezbollah and Amal supporters have been allowed to demolish tents on the main protest area in downtown Beirut twice in the past few weeks.
- After the attacks by supporters of Hezbollah and Amal movement on protesters (November 24-25)
Hisham Jaber, a retired Lebanese general, said the army was in a "delicate" position and could not have done more than it did on Sunday evening (November 24). The military is already at the center of a debate in US political circles. The Trump administration is currently withholding more than $ 100 million in U.S. military aid to Lebanon that was approved by Congress without making a statement of discontinuation.
This has raised concern for some in the US security community, who view aid, which has been used primarily to purchase US-made military supplies, as key to combating Iranian influence in Lebanon. Others, including pro-Israel lawmakers in Congress, have tried to disappoint the military, arguing that it has been compromised by Hezbollah, which calls the US a terrorist organization. The US authorities have long believed that a strong Lebanese army could counter Hezbollah's weapons and deprive the militant group of excuses to keep their weapons. The 70,000-strong force split along sectarian lines during the Lebanese civil war from 1975 to 1990. Since then, it has largely been possible to achieve a level of stability by adhering to a tough balancing act, which includes coordinating with Hezbollah on security issues. Jaber said it was impossible for the security forces to clash with Hezbollah because "it will create divisions within the army." "Hezbollah is a major component of the Lebanese people," he said. “Bringing the army into battle with them would result in part of the Lebanese army being withdrawn. This could be followed by other groups, which then separate from the army. "
Feminist aspect
Women are at the forefront of protests in Lebanon - and they also encourage feminists in other Arab countries to stand up, wrote Deutsche Welle . Egyptian women's rights activist Hend El Kholy wrote on Facebook that it was inspiring that women in Lebanon could wear shorts and walk through a group of men without being molested. "If anyone wants to know what masculinity is, they can see it here," she wrote. “Women feel safe in this group. Not a single man tries to restrict their freedom or harass them - verbally or physically. ”El Kholy contrasted the situation of women in Lebanon with that of women in Egypt , where they continue to be subjected to humiliation, harassment and attack. Many who took part in the 2011 Egyptian uprising were sexually assaulted by security forces - and even by male protesters.
An article in the Saudi Arabian newspaper Okaz also deeply angered many people. One report on the protests was titled "Lebanese Beauties: All These Wonderful Women Are Revolutionaries". The article mainly consisted of selected photos of "attractive" protesters whom the newspaper described as "not only wonderful, but also revolutionary". Needless to say, sexism angered protesters in Lebanon.
And the fight for women in Lebanon is intense, wrote Deutsche Welle authors Dina Elbasnaly and Kersten Knipp. A law that saved rapists from being imprisoned for promising to marry their victims remained in the law books until 2017. In 2018, several women's organizations joined forces to launch the nationwide Shame on Who? to launch a public support campaign for people who reported sexual assault, warning them to "judge the rapist - not the victim".
"Women storm the streets of Lebanon to protest against the current government - but also to demand more rights for themselves," wrote Tara Kavalier ( Jerusalem Post ). "On Sunday they marched in Beirut to honor the women who attended and lead the rallies and to remind the public that new reforms must change the status of women in the country." Protests take on leadership roles in different areas: blocking the streets, organizing the protests, singing and preparing chants, and [even] leading the protests, says Hayat Mirshad, a feminist and head of communications and campaigning for the Lebanese Women's Democratic Assembly (RDFL) , a secular NGO working for equality .
Outsiders may give the impression that women in Lebanon have some degree of liberal freedom, especially when compared to other countries in the region, wrote Sarah Khalil (The New Arab) on November 8; for the Lebanese citizens, however, “the picture is a well-made facade. Anchored in the constitution and confirmed by the Lebanese judiciary, the restriction of women's rights in Lebanon is likely to be more extreme than in the country's more conservative neighbors. "At the center of this discrimination is a denominational system that is anchored in the constitution, according to the author. The law provides that Lebanon's patchwork of religious communities has the right to uphold their religious values. The constitution guarantees respect for “personal status and religious interests”. Safeguarding these constitutional rights has long been described as "critical" in preventing Lebanon's return to civil war. The result, however, is "that many of the various communities uphold patriarchy as a constitutionally prescribed religious right. Any efforts to reform laws that discriminate against women are blocked by claims that they are jeopardizing the stability initiated by the country's diverse sectarian system. "
Attitude of the cultural scene
The country's cultural scene has also joined the protests, wrote Deutschlandfunk Kultur (October 26). Museums remain closed, an art festival has been canceled. The long-planned guest performance of the American work “The Beauty of Amherst” in the studio of the Beirut theater company Zoukak was canceled. At the same time, a group of graphic designers got together to provide information on the various protests on social media. “Musicians give spontaneous street concerts; Graffiti artists perpetuate their political criticism on Beirut's house walls. ' We will not be quiet ', it reads among other things. Because corruption and mismanagement by the political elite also had a negative effect on Lebanese culture, according to theater maker Mohamad Hamdan. "
The so-called "Egg", the ruins of a former cinema on "Martyrs Square" in downtown Beirut, is now an important meeting point. “Littered with bullet holes, it is reminiscent of the Lebanese civil war and was sealed off for decades. Now the demonstrators have occupied the “egg” and are bringing it back to life. ”It is used there to hold discussions, show films and play music; it is an example of how demonstrators and artists are reclaiming public space, explains Mohamad Hamdan from the Zoukak Theater.
Well-known Lebanese singer and songwriter Marcel Khalifé joined protesters in the southern city of Nabatea on Sunday . Khalife sang a number of his patriotic songs with the demonstrators, expressing solidarity.
The protest and the media
Al Jazeera reports on the media coverage of the protests in Lebanon; Journalists observed that the country's broadcasters like Lebanese Broadcasting Corporation International (LBC), MTV and Al Jadeed were constantly looking for interviewees in the crowd, “only getting one person's opinion at a time,” said Habib Battah, an employee at Reuters Institute Oxford. The media landscape in Lebanon is “monopolized by a handful of political dynasties. About twelve families own or control the entire mainstream media landscape, ”says Lara Bitar, media worker and organizer. The television channel OTV is affiliated with the party of President Aoun. The prevailing distrust of the Lebanese towards their mainstream media has led them, according to the authors, to use social media to exchange information. But in contrast to the Arab Spring , this is “not a Facebook revolution. Millions of Lebanese - sects of all people - don't just want to overthrow a dictator or a mere government. They want to overthrow a system - sectarians to the core - down to the television channels that are supposed to tell their story. Their basic message: Regardless of what our politicians tell us, Lebanon doesn't have to be like this, regardless of how our media reports about it. "
“Some Lebanese broadcasters have decided,” says Habib Battah in Al Jazeera, “to completely relinquish directing and instead turn their program into an open microphone without censorship. For hours, reporters from Lebanese television networks such as LBC, Al Jadeed and MTV are on the spot during protests across the country, while crowds swirl around them, waiting for the opportunity to voice their complaints and sometimes pick up the microphone. "Many people would address politicians by name that what is a taboo in Lebanon, where corruption is often discussed, but often only in general. The author's summary:
- “For me and many others, it was an incredible relief not to have to hear the news from the politicians, the soap opera of their daily life: their press conferences and trips abroad, their little arguments and even their deceit, their condescending self-confidence, selfishness and insincere promises. It was a great relief to hear something different for a change, the problems and the voice of others, and to know that those voices exist out there, millions of them. "
The Lebanese protest movement has a positive effect on social media and holds the country's heads of state and government accountable, wrote Kareem Chehayeb (Middle East Eye) - the footage is rich in cheering crowds, elaborate murals and community initiatives. But the local media would paint a very different picture, however: protesters' demands for an overhaul or for a long-ruled sectarian system were portrayed as a dangerous movement supported by foreign powers to drag Lebanon into open conflict. While disinformation campaigns are not new, the popular uprising sparked by socioeconomic ills on October 17, according to author, has further exposed the media ecosystem dominated by political parties and politically related property. Media researcher Azza el-Masri told Middle East Eye that disinformation campaigns were used at a time of uncertainty to play with the emotions of Lebanese citizens. For Naser Yasin, a political analyst with the Issam Fares Institute for Public Order and International Affairs, the rise in disinformation campaigns is evident as the emergence of the country's largest popular movement in nearly 15 years came as a shock to many. He believes some of these campaigns are "orchestrated" in both social and traditional media. Masri also believes that the Lebanese media has a role to play in maintaining and even building disinformation campaigns. "The Lebanese media have always been the media of the political elite ... and even if they portray themselves as the party of the people, they are still financially secure from the rulers and sectarian warlords from whom we are trying to break free."
According to Al Jadeed television, journalists are harassed by Hezbollah supporters for their positive coverage of the Lebanese protests. On Tuesday (November 19) dozens of supporters of the Iran-backed party arrived on motorcycles in front of the station building to protest Al Jadeed's appeal to Hezbollah and the allied Amal party for failing to reprimand supporters who harassed journalists had. In an editorial on Tuesday, Anchor Dalia Ahmad wrote that "groups that support Hezbollah are campaigning against the media" and exposing staff to "defamation, abuse, pornographic images and distribution of male and female colleagues' phone numbers." Al Jadeed's Vice President Karma Khayat told The National that she believed the TV station had become a target because of the positive coverage of anti-government protests. The broadcaster decided to publicly accuse Hezbollah and Amal on Tuesday evening for failing to condemn this behavior after broadcasting statements from harassed journalists the previous day.
Out of the protest movement - in view of the repression and as a result of the media struggles - a first newspaper was created with the name 17Teshreen, the day the revolution began, October 17th. The first editorial (November 29) stated that the newspaper wanted to "document the experiences and successes of the Lebanese street".
On January 8, 2020, Rafaela Naji reported on the news portal The 961.com about reprisals against activists and journalists in Lebanon. Some have seen their Twitter accounts blocked against them through "anonymous reports". Nidal Ayoub, Amer Shibani and many other journalists and activists were arrested and interrogated by the Lebanese Cybercrimes Bureau for disclosing information about the ongoing uprising. Prominent journalist and activist Nidal Ayoub was arrested and interrogated for posting a video allegedly berating the president. The video was deemed inappropriate and detrimental to the state's image. In the case brought against him by Hussein Mortada, Nidal Ayoub was charged with defamation and blasphemy , including disdain for the president and "undermining the reputation of the state". According to Human Rights Watch , the attacks on journalists and activists in Lebanon are contrary to Lebanon's international obligations to protect freedom of expression.
Reactions
Political analysis after the outbreak of the protests
In a TV debate on French television, it was speculated that the current protests in the Middle East and South America ( protests in Chile in 2019 and in Ecuador ) could be influenced by the French yellow vests movement ; it may be the sudden outbreak of leaderless protests, supported by social media , against politicians from across the spectrum. "This new age of transparency that we live in has created growing inequality that is simply not addressed."
The fact that the protest movement has developed across the ethnic and religious borders that dominate Lebanon is seen as a sign of a national unification movement and a new national feeling in the country, which is otherwise characterized by strongly separatist currents. According to Anchal Vohra ( Foreign Policy ), the mass protests in Lebanon and Iraq seem very different at first glance. "In Iraq, the protesters were mostly angry young working class men and they were quickly confronted with violence." In Lebanon, again, the protests "are characterized by the distinctive style and festive spirit of the country," and the initiators came largely from the upper classes. Despite the stark contrast between the protests, the rebels in both countries are actually very similar, the author said. “They are facing many of the same political problems and essentially making the same demands.” They wanted the overthrow of the existing self-serving elites in their country and major changes to the denominational constitutional systems. Prominent Lebanese economist Ishac Diwan said the country was in the midst of a revolution aimed at forging a new national identity shaped by "individuals who oppose the system." Diwan told France Culture that the leaders of the current Lebanese sectarian system can no longer avoid being identified with corruption, benefiting from the state and the private sector and dominating credit resources.
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Lebanese political commentator Youssef Bazzi said it was difficult for the Lebanese protest movement to put together a manifesto at this point, in part because of the deep anger that is exploding in the street. Instead of stepping back, Aoun took a provocative stance and tried to instrumentalise the uprising by suggesting full authority to conduct a purge, according to Mr Bazzi. Bazzi said the Hezbollah-Amal-Aoun axis and support for Iran would make it difficult for the protest movement to fundamentally change the system in the short term, citing Syria and Iraq as examples.
According to Sheena McKenzie ( CNN ), "activists around the world take to the streets in highly organized, persistent movements to tell their governments: This is not good enough." According to experts, the protests are "a turning point for ordinary people." People "who are fed up with being exposed to measures imposed on them from above by a ruling class. There is a great lack of trust in the political elite, a sense of crisis of authority and a multitude of complaints and feelings of discontent, "said John Chalcraft , professor of Middle Eastern history and politics at the London School of Economics and Political Science . The People in Lebanon, suffering from the pressures of a rapidly declining economy, are targeting what they see as “criminal capitalism.” Lebanese protesters say decades of corruption and mismanagement by the government and the country's sect leaders make life too expensive become.
According to Malte Geier ( Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung ) it will be important for the protest movement in the further development of the demonstrations “to offer the Lebanese a better and realistic alternative beyond the call to overthrow the existing balance of power. The yardstick for the changes that are now coming will not least be the country's young generation, who, especially after their weak participation in the previous elections, were often regarded as apathetic and disenchanted with politics, but are now the main protagonists of the protests. "
Worsened economic conditions and a corrupt political system had long led to profound public discontent in Lebanon, Jihad Fakhreddine wrote on October 24 for Gallup . “Up until the last few weeks, however, these factors had never marginalized the Lebanese into calling for the dismissal of the country's entire political elite. Thousands have shouted 'everyone is everyone' and spread the protest slogan widely on social networks. Even during the Arab uprising in 2011 , the Lebanese public remained relatively calm. ”So the bigger question is, why now? It is possible that the tax increase on WhatsApp and other services was just a "step too far" for some Lebanese. As a protester said on a local TV station, “ WhatsApp is the only social medium we have to hide our disappointments. Now they want to tax our disappointments too. "
In the past, many revolutions or large public protests have been sparked by rising prices for staple foods. It seems, according to the author, that Lebanon is the first time "that a major revolt is triggered by the taxation of the use of a social media app." Under pressure, the government reversed its tax ruling and announced new reforms. says Fakhreddine - "but it is probably far too late to reverse the course the Lebanese have chosen for the future."
The political system in Lebanon is organized along religious dividing lines. This should ensure the power sharing between the Christians, Sunnis, Shiites and Druze and safeguard their interests. The relationship between citizens and the state is mediated through the leaders of these religious communities. "This system is supposed to prevent people from organizing themselves across these borders," says Bassel Salloukh, professor of political science at the Lebanese American University . “And exactly this system has now exploded.” While in Iraq the protests of the army, police and militias were brutally suppressed. So far, at least up to now (October 24), the state law enforcement agencies in Lebanon have largely held back. It is only a matter of time, however, that the “confessional order”, as Salloukh calls it, would strike back. “The ruling system isn't going to collapse in a week,” he says. "The struggle for a new order in Lebanon will take a long time."
According to Osama Al Sharif ( Gul News , October 25), the new form of largely peaceful protests experienced in Lebanon is an advanced form of economically motivated protests by various social and economic classes that feel disadvantaged, ignored and disenfranchised. While the demands focus on economic hardships - the right to employment, public services, pensions and the like - they cannot be met without structural reforms. “This is the challenge that countries like Iraq , Algeria and Lebanon are facing today. The need to move towards a bourgeois state has never been more urgent. The end of the rentier state can only pave the way for a new social and political contract. This region must find other alternatives to sectarian rule, the rule of the generals or the strongman rule. "
Concerning the stance of the United States, Bilal Saab, an analyst at the Middle East Institute in Washington (October 25) said that this popular uprising was an opportunity for the Trump administration to support a movement “which, from the American perspective, could lead to better government , as well as for the Lebanese people to express carefully, without using the kind of stubborn, inflammatory rhetoric "with which Trump did it in the recent protests in Iran. However, there is also a significant risk that the US could cause even more chaos if characteristic missteps are repeated in a turbulent region, said Saab. Unlike former President Barack Obama, "Trump uses sanctions like a sledgehammer and hits away, and the more things break the better," said George A. Lopez, a professor at the University of Notre Dame and an expert on sanctions.
So far, the Trump administration has delivered little news regarding the Lebanese protests. While progressive Democratic presidential candidates for 2020 , Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders , publicly support the demonstrations, "Trump remains silent about events that could weaken a longtime US enemy." Saab said that silence could be "a sign of confusion, shaped Trump's Middle East policy. It could also be that the US is not seen as the instigator of the protests and thereby wants to undermine them. "
Charbel Nahas, who gave a speech at the Occupied Egg Meeting Point on Friday , is a former government insider and World Bank economist . As a two-time minister, he led reforms in the telecommunications sector by accelerating the country's Internet with 3G. In the labor market, he tried unsuccessfully to enforce general health insurance and eventually resigned from his post. In 2015 he founded the non-sectarian opposition party Mouwatinoun wa Mouwatinat fi Dawla . He said his group expected that endemic state corruption would drive the country into the crisis it is in today and has organized for that moment. Nahas' party set up a tent on Martyrs Square in central Beirut amid mass protests. The members cover 14-hour shifts, speak to passers-by and hold rallies about plans for a political transition from the country's sectarian leadership.
Charbel Nahas, economist and former minister, said in a CNN interview on Friday October 25th “ Change is never easy. It is risky. It's a historic opportunity, ”says Nahas. “ What has happened so far is that the existing de facto regime has collapsed. It is no longer functional. “However, he argues that the situation could easily backfire and potentially erupt into violence as a dwindling currency threatens the very foundations of Lebanon's already shabby social order. The first victims of the financial crisis, Nahas argues, are the political elites, whom he equates with “tribal chiefs” who run a hodgepodge of communities along religious sectarian lines that can no longer be sustained. According to CNN reporters Tamara Qiblawi, Ben Wedeman and Ghazi Balkiz, “the collapse of the state” is already looming.
The recent column by David Ignatius in the Washington Post ( Syria is lost. Let's save Lebanon, October 16) caused irritation . For Marco Carnelos, "shows again the difficulty that leading US commentators seem to be faced with in understanding the situation in the Middle East and offering their readers a realistic assessment." The column argues that what has helped to keep Lebanon's precarious political structure alive, the "belief that the United States would not ultimately let the country be completely ruled by enemies of the West." Ignatius suggested that the US should include Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and should encourage other regional powers opposed to Iran to put more money into Lebanon too. Ignatius believes that the United States should convince the Gulf States that their money will not go down the drain of Lebanese corruption.
It is unclear, said Habib Battah in Al Jazeera, whether this uprising will meet all or some of its many ambitious demands: resignation of the entire government, including all ministers and parliament, early elections, investigations against corruption, public services for all. "But it will be impossible to refute what has been said, to expose the resolve in the streets and not to know the public's ability to encompass an entire country from its largest cities to its smallest villages."
Analysis of the political situation after Saad Hariri's resignation
Rami Khouri, a senior fellow and professor of public policy at the American University of Beirut, made comments following Hariri's resignation; he described Hariri's move as a “great victory” for the protest movement and a “critical turning point”. He added, however, that the prime minister is the "weakest link" in the country's coalition government, which brings together almost all of Lebanon's main parties, including the powerful Hezbollah. The question now is whether this will trigger a process through which Hezbollah, who is the key actor in the background, and the president and his party will agree to a technocratic government that will move on to the next step in responding to the protesters' demands.
According to Zeina Khodr (Al Jazeera), President Aoun could refuse Hariri's resignation. "Some believe the prime minister could use this as a kind of negotiating tactic to pressure his government partners to agree on a new government," said Khodr. “But his partners in government are not his allies and so far have held onto power. So far they have refused to obey the demands of the protest movement. "
The British Guardian saw the parallels between the protests in Chile and Lebanon; both are "events that marginalized two countries [the protests] were triggered by what appeared to be minor political changes that symbolized that the ruling elite was unable or even unable to meet the basic needs of their people." to understand and enrich oneself at the same time. ”While Chile’s biggest political crisis since the return of democracy almost 30 years ago was triggered by a 3% increase in subway fares, the protests in Lebanon were triggered by a planned tax on WhatsApp Calls raised.
But in both countries the underlying causes had built up much longer; there is deep anger against political and economic systems that most of the population have ignored. "Lebanon has been staggering for years, both because of political dysfunction and because of endemic corruption." Protest movements around the world are developing at a bewildering pace, the authors say, partly thanks to technological developments and partly because they are aiming for similar campaigns abroad. But there is no easy outcome for the conflicts. The leaders of the federal states "reach for sticks or adhesive plasters, but there are no short-term solutions to long-term structural problems."
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According to Zvi Bar'el ( Haaretz ) km Saad Hariri's resignation on Tuesday is not surprising; In June he had already informed those around him that he would return the government mandate to President Michel Aoun if he did not win support for his proposed economic reforms. But despite the sharp criticism of his proposals and the lack of support for their implementation, Hariri stuck to his office, according to the author. However, the “dead end” that Hariri referred to when announcing his resignation “did not begin when the protests came in about two weeks ago. His resignation and his cabinet could theoretically open the door to a new opportunity, "said Bar'el," but only if the political powers agree to set up a government of technocrats, who regardless of their religious or ethnic identity appointed become. The protesters have made it clear that neither Bassil nor Hezbollah cabinet members can serve in it. Even if the deal is reached, it is doubtful that the necessary neutral, immaculate technocrats can be found. ”Another option is to make Hariri head of an executive cabinet and hold new elections, a move Hezbollah could support. It is not clear whether the demonstrators will be satisfied with this. Based on the experiences of the past, as Zvi Bar'el sums up, “in the end a compromise will be reached that will not satisfy anyone, but which will allow the state to survive until the next crisis.”
However, forming such a government could prove challenging, said Sami Nader, director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs. He said a cabinet of independent experts was a "bright idea". In his view, the most likely outcome will be the formation of a government "aè la Libanainse", which means that some independent figures will be put in place to please the streets, but the old modus operandi will remain. The biggest problem now is how Lebanon - one of the most heavily indebted nations in the world with a national debt of more than 150 percent of GDP - can prevent a financial collapse. "The only real way for Lebanon is to appoint a government that can restore confidence in the people and in the international community after the interruption of this revolution," said Nader.
The protests in Iraq and Lebanon are primarily about local politics and a corrupt political class that has failed to perform, said Ayham Kamel, head of the Middle East and North Africa department at the Eurasia Group . The protests "show the failure of the proxy model, in which Iran can build influence, but its allies are unable to govern effectively," said Kamel. Lebanese protesters rarely mentioned Iran and its key local ally, Hezbollah , but they directed much of their anger at Lebanese President Michel Aoun and Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil , both from a Christian party closely linked to Hezbollah Originated from , Free Patriotic Movement .
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To Avi Issacharoff ( The Times of Israel ), it looks like, given the social, political and economic crisis, the resignation could lead to chaos, and even Hezbollah cannot predict how it will end. Hezbollah could have liked the resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Tuesday. After all, Hariri - the son of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri , who was murdered by Hezbollah envoys in 2005 - is a long-time opponent of the terror group. In reality, like protests across the country, the resignation is causing Hezbollah a serious headache. It is no coincidence that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah railed against the rallies in his recent speech and implicitly threatened to mobilize his staff “to prevent a [leadership] vacuum”.
"There's no time for the old games," said Heiko Wimmen, Lebanon project manager at the International Crisis Group . "The pressure of the streets - and perhaps even more so the fear of economic collapse - will dictate accelerated government formation." According to Sami Atallah, director of the Lebanese Center for Political Studies, the formation of an independent government of experts led by an independent one would be Person who most satisfy protesters. It is unlikely that this will happen because established political parties are excluded. "While the form of the new government is important, the time it takes is also of crucial importance." In this context, Atallah recalls the political controversy between the parties over the formation of Hariri's cabinet, which took just under nine months had formed. In his opinion, Lebanon “doesn't have that much time left. High debt, stagnating economic growth and declining remittances - an important lifeline - have put the country's finances under increasing pressure. "
According to Farnaz Fassihi ( The New York Times ), Iranian leaders see threats in the protests in Iraq and Lebanon, some of which are linked to hostilities against Iran. This would suddenly have jeopardized Iran's interests in the region.
According to Tamara Qiblawi ( CNN ), many demonstrators would realize “that there is a long and complicated road ahead of them. Unlike much of the Arab world, Iraq and Lebanon are not governed by autocrats, and a change of government rarely leads to a shift in domestic politics. Instead, protesters say that these countries are ruled by democratically elected kleptocracies, with the political elite deeply rooted thanks to intricate sectarian systems of power sharing. ”In both cases, the protesters face the daunting task, according to the journalist, not just of their cabinets, but to change entire political systems in order to remedy their grievances. This became clear in Lebanon when Saad Hariri emerged as the favorite for the same post no later than 24 hours after his resignation as Prime Minister. In Iraq, the resignation of Prime Minister Adil Abd al-Mahdi will only take effect if a successor is found.
Another aggravating factor is the growing influence of Iran , so. With Hezbollah, Iran did not create the status quo against which the people in both countries had revolted, but it had a great interest in maintaining it. And protesters fueled by deep economic grievances accumulated over many years through government mismanagement soon faced Iranian-backed forces or their supporters. In Lebanon, Hezbollah initially recognized the protests, which began in mid-October, as legitimate, but later attempted to discredit the movement, claiming that parts of them were driven by a conspiracy against the group. Supporters of Hezbollah and its political allies in the Amal movement have attacked protest sites twice. The group has also spoken out against the resignation of Hariri's national unity government, which included Hezbollah and its allies. Hezbollah's stance has drawn the ire of protesters, even among the most sympathetic of the group. While Hezbollah is not notorious for corruption in the economy, it positions itself as the guardian of the Lebanese self-serving establishment at this critical moment .
According to Dania Koleilat Khatib, a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying and a researcher at the Issam Fares Institute for Public Order and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut, today's Lebanese heads of state and government are “the metamorphosis of the Lebanese people not aware at all. ”They might not see that their narrative is dead. They made promises like removing secrecy from their bank accounts, bringing those who misappropriated money to justice, or reducing the budget deficit . These are all promises, according to the author, "which cannot be fulfilled because it would mean exposing their own corruption and their hideous sectarianism." Now (November 2nd), consultations between the various "political parties" will lead to the creation of one new government, but these political leaders do not understand “that they belong to a bygone era. Your audience is eroding. They no longer have any social legitimacy . Lebanon wants new national leadership that will institution-build and carry out serious economic, social and political reforms. Today the Lebanese are mature enough to embrace the spirit of Fuad Chehab [who was president of the country from 1958 to 1964] and a new Chehabism. "
According to Lauren Williams (Lowy Institute), developments over the past week (October 28 to November 3) “have shown the fragility of the protest movement's rare and unified anti-sectarian agenda. The movement is now at risk of falling victim to the divisions it seeks to overcome. It is not surprising that the representatives of the coalition of the old guard are unlikely to all resign at the same time. ”Therefore, it is to be feared“ that they will fall back on what they always do - unleash the sectarian map by mobilizing their bases. ” A technocratic secular government, as the protesters have called for, may sound like a good idea, but the entire system would have to be abolished and the constitution rewritten. Iran has made clear its opposition to such a plan and its readiness to respond to that rejection. Even if it had the full support of the Group, it seems unlikely that the road won't last as long as it would take. For the author, the question would be who should lead such a coalition. “The protest movement lacks leaders or even agreed goals. When it comes down to it, the Lebanese people are more likely, as usual, to seek leaders to represent their interests, and in most cases these are religious identities and ancient grievances. "
The strength of this protest lies not only in the fact that it is a grass-roots movement with no permanent leadership, wrote Edy Cohen from an Israeli perspective on November 4th, but also in the fact that it stands up to all current power players, including the militant Hezbollah. One of the most popular slogans of the protest was " Each of us is one and of course Nasrallah is one of them " (i.e. corrupt politicians). Some of the demonstrators started burning Israeli flags, but others stopped them. " We are demonstrating against the corrupt politicians, we must not lose focus if we are dealing with another topic, " said the demonstrators when they put an end to the burning of the flag. The protests of the people have an impact, so the car. Attempts to accuse Israel of being behind the movement have failed. At present, no one in the political class seems to have a solution while people are cooking on the streets of Lebanon. “At the moment there just seems to be a dead end with an unclear future or even a civil war on the horizon. One thing seems clear: the Lebanese are not giving up anytime soon and seem ready to do anything to bring about radical changes in their country. "
The cases of Iraq and Lebanon underscore the Trump administration's chaotic approach to complex regional problems, Osama Al-Sharif wrote in Arab News on Nov. 5 . An end to the all-encompassing, largely leaderless and defiant movements in both countries does not seem to be in sight for the time being. “There are two critical external components, according to the author, that are relevant to the ongoing uprisings. One is the grave and unprecedented challenge to Iran's influence and hegemony in Iraq and Lebanon, directly and through its proxies, and the second is the apparent complacency of the Trump administration in responding to a seismic regional event. "
According to Theodore Karasik, Senior Advisor at Gulf State Analytics and Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Lexington Institute in Washington, DC (Eurasia Review, Nov. 9), the events across the Levant , Lebanon, Syria and Iraq are “more unique historical significance. ”What is happening now is different from the so-called Arab Spring . Instead, an uprising is taking place against an old order in which the melting away of denominational governance is key. And this government is infected by Iran. What appears to be a tectonic shift changes many factors, “with the main drivers being those who are fed up with what is viewed as the greed, influence and violence of the old order. A major target in both Lebanon and Iraq is Iran, and rightly so. Hezbollah, Iran's ally in Lebanon, faces a real challenge to its authority. For example, when residents of the Hezbollah-controlled Dahiyeh neighborhood in Beirut march in anti-government demonstrations, change is definitely underway. The optics shocked Tehran's security establishment. ”Karasik continued:“ At the moment, withholding millions of US dollars for the US is a pressure tactic that Lebanese elites can use to influence the reshaping of their system of government. These efforts affect other countries as well, which are pushing to end the personal enrichment system and 'clean up' the banking system. For Hezbollah's assets, this is an attack on its financial system. "
John Hajjar, co-chair of the American Mideast Coalition for Democracy, wrote in American Thinker, asks what US policies should be like regarding the Lebanese protests. There is no doubt in his view that Hezbollah and its radical allies are at the core of the threats against the US. It is in the national interest of the United States to see that Hezbollah in Lebanon is controlled and eventually disarmed. On another level, the US also has an interest in seeing the Lebanese fight against corruption in its own country as a means to end such corrupt practices in the region and around the world. The US should therefore promote good governance and state sovereignty.
On the basis of these considerations, Hajjar believes that US policy should be guided by the following considerations:
- It is clear that the demonstrators have a universal fundamental right to express their views and to organize peaceful demonstrations;
- The competent authorities should be warned not to suppress these protests and the security forces, and in particular the Lebanese armed forces, should be warned to protect these demonstrators from thugs and militias;
- The US should also call on the regime to comply with the demonstrators' demands and step down from power, leaving them to a provisional, bipartisan government whose only mandate is to organize general elections .
- Assist the new Parliament in drafting new legislation for the country;
- Collaborate with the next government to carry out reforms and implement international resolutions, including Resolution 1559 and 1701 of the UN Security Council ; and,
- Assisting the Lebanese armed forces and security forces in protecting Lebanese citizens and disarming militias.
- A new US policy should also involve a special team dealing with the Lebanese crisis in both Beirut and Washington, DC, given the dramatic events that have taken place and are developing.
According to Yasser Alahwal ( Haaretz , November 11), the Arab Spring is returning with the revolt in Lebanon. "But the six sectarian political leaders who share and rule the country and its resources are in no hurry to relinquish power." He went on to say that it was in particular a revolt against the formalized sectarian government structure that led to economic and political paralysis, Nepotism and intimidation. While it is generally accepted that this sectarian form of government has saved Lebanon from another dire decline into civil war, this basic assumption is now being challenged. The assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005, the armed conflict between Hezbollah and Israel in mid-2006, and the ongoing political instability in the country have contributed to widespread political violence as part of their statehood among many Lebanese, the author said .
The longevity, dynastic character and tight sectarian agendas of so many political elites in Lebanon ensure that Lebanese citizens know exactly who they are dealing with and that it is difficult to embrace real change, cross-denominational solidarity, responsibility and accountability Yasser Alahwal wrote on. The Lebanese demonstrating on the streets know the danger of upset a political calculation - inefficient and corrupt as it is - that has maintained a fragile civic peace for two decades. Even so, protesters did not change their minds. The motto of the protests is " kellon yaani kellon " ( all mean each and every one of them ), which means that the male politicians of every sect and ethnicity are guilty and must all be held accountable. "Lebanon is rising - and breaking the barrier of fear that once prevented its people from demanding radical changes against the feudalism, exploitative sectarianism and corruption that rule Lebanon," the author concludes.
According to Armin Hasemann ( German Society for Foreign Policy ), the “current protest movement is unique in the history of Lebanon in terms of its decentralized nature and its categorical rejection of the political class . From today's perspective [11. November] all political parties that were involved in the overthrown government seem weakened by the events. Up-and-coming movements that have emerged at local and regional level should benefit from this. They are currently trying to expand their activities in other regions and to gain greater popularity. ”According to the author, the dynamism of the protests triggered wide-ranging political discussions across all denominations and led to the resurgence of a political public. Martyrs' Square in the center of the capital, Beirut, has changed from a symbol of sectarian violence and the division of the city to a place of encounter and getting to know each other. Citizens of different denominations and from different parts of the city and country would come together for the first time in decades and freely debate the future of the country. The emergence of political parties out of the protest movement is therefore more a question of when, not whether, so Hasemann's summary.
Analysis after Michel Aoun's televised address and the death of Alaa Abu Fakhr (November 12)
If the government tried to suppress the protests with full force, the most likely outcome would be some sort of rift in the Lebanese state as the army appears unwilling to take such measures, wrote Michael Young, editor of Diwan blog (Carnegie Middle East , Beirut). If Hezbollah itself tries to intimidate the demonstrators and possibly move into areas of non-Shiite religious sects, it would almost certainly lead to civil war. Whatever the outcome, Mr Aoun's ruthless decision to ignore the protesters, a move Hezbollah has supported, means that both are leading Lebanon into the unknown. Even if the country could avoid an internal conflict, a government rejected by most Lebanese and clearly pro-Hezbollah would not prevent economic calamity or isolation from the West and the Arab world. Lebanon could find itself again, perhaps as the Venezuela of the Middle East.
If the blockade on the formation of a government continues - it seems - the country could experience prolonged unrest. The country is used to extending the government vacuum, but this time around, politicians don't have the luxury of wasting time on political arguments, wrote Zeina Karam (The Associated Press) on November 13. “Neither side seems willing to compromise, and there is no political leadership or opposition parties that could be an alternative to the ruling parties. The longer protesters stay on the streets, the tougher the positions become. The unrest and the bank closure are causing fear and panic among Lebanese. All of this carries the risk that one side or the other will turn to greater violence in order to break the impasse. "
It was supposed to be a break free, but it ended as an own goal, wrote Moritz Baumstieger ( Süddeutsche Zeitung ); “A return to the old routine, which allows politicians to 'keep going' - the protest movement wants to prevent it. Therefore, even these sentences would probably have sufficed Aoun to mobilize new demonstrators and to give the protests new impetus. But then Aoun added one more thing: "If the people are not satisfied with any acceptable leadership, then they should just emigrate." With this remark [the demonstrators should go home], Aoun involuntarily looked deep into his understanding of office, something like that that Bertolt Brecht attributed to the GDR leadership in 1953 after the uprising of June 17 . The people had forfeited the trust of the government, wrote Brecht at the time, ' wouldn't it be easier if the government dissolved the people and chose another? "'"
"There is of course a risk that the situation will escalate," said protest researcher Jannis Grimm from the Institute for Protest and Movement Research (ipb) to the broadcaster n-tv (November 17th). Years ago, the protests of the Arab Spring showed how quickly a situation can get out of control and how quickly resistance can radicalize if regimes brutally suppress the protest. At the moment, however, Grimm does not see this danger in Lebanon: “Despite the attacks by supporters of Hezbollah and from the Amal camp, the protesters were almost without exception peaceful. But the likeness of Wednesday's death victim already adorns the first walls and posters, he is considered the first 'martyr' of the October Revolution. It is precisely such unpredictable events that develop great symbolic power and fuel protests. ”From Grimm's point of view, the people in Lebanon have reason to hope that more fundamental things could change.
According to Grimm, the political system is relatively approachable: “The prime minister had announced reforms that weren't enough for the protesters, then he resigned. But he has declared that he would be ready to head a new transitional government again. ”With the demonstrators, the researcher sees the demand for a complete abolition of the system slowly weakening. It can be seen that the sides are moving towards each other. Perhaps one could agree, according to Grimm's forecast, to form a transitional government made up of experts and technocrats, possibly with a few old figures at the top who initiate the reforms.
"Politicians love to say how dangerous the situation is because they want people to be too afraid of protests," said Alaa Sayegh, a political activist of the LiHaqqi grassroots movement founded in 2017 (November 17). "They want the situation to be the way it was before October 17, but there is no greater risk than the same political parties staying in power for driving Lebanon to economic ruin," said he opposite The National. Sayegh argued that the cause of the current political blockade in Lebanon is the dichotomy between Hezbollah and the strong influence of its allies on local politics as a result of the 2018 parliamentary elections and the country's economy, which is dependent on Arab and Western support. For him, the only solution currently for Lebanon is to come up with a “new political formula” that is not tied to the results of the 2018 elections. "The situation depends on Hezbollah and the willingness of the FPM to make serious concessions in this direction."
Edy Cohen, an analyst at the Begin-Sadat-Center for Strategic Studies (BESA), wrote in Algemeiner (November 19) that the country was paralyzed, despite predictions from all experts who thought the demonstrations would quickly disappear. What they did not understand is that it is a popular uprising against the corrupt and incompetent political system that has driven Lebanon into a severe economic depression. The strength of the protest, says Cohen, is that it is not only a grass-roots movement with no permanent leadership, but also takes a position against all power players, including Hezbollah. One of the popular slogans of the protest is "Nasrallah is one of them" (i.e. a corrupt politician). This sentiment was expressed after the Hezbollah leader made two speeches threatening the demonstrators, falsely accusing them of using funds from foreign authorities. No one currently has a solution, Cohen continued, and the people on the streets of Lebanon are boiling like crazy. The future is unclear and another civil war may be looming. However, one thing seems clear: the Lebanese are not giving up anytime soon and seem ready to do whatever it takes to bring about radical changes in their country.
According to Jeffrey Feltman ( Brookings Institution ), who analyzes the conflict from an American point of view, Lebanon is a venue for global strategic competition. Alluding to the withdrawal of US troops from northern Syria, he says: "Others like to fill the vacuum when we step down." As dysfunctional as Lebanese democracy is, the United States is also interested in an Arab Mediterranean country with relatively strong forces civil liberties, democratic traditions and multi-denominational coexistence is successful. With their strong international ties, most Lebanese strive to be more politically, culturally, economically, and financially linked to the traditional West - Europe and North America - rather than Iran, Russia, or China. There is a natural affinity between most Lebanese and the West that can work to the advantage of the United States. But as citizens of a small, vulnerable country in a dangerous region, the Lebanese will not look irrationally for reliable external partners either. As frustrating, "needy" and complicated as Lebanon may be, "we have to play the long game and not allow Iran, Syria, China or Russia to take advantage of our absence."
According to Maha Yahya (Carnegie Middle East Center, Nov. 22), the country's political elite continue to behave as if it were normal business. She trades behind the scenes like on horseback over a new government as politicians try to maintain their influence. Lebanon is approaching an economic and financial freefall with disastrous consequences for the population. According to the author, the political class must avoid a crash landing, which would be catastrophic for Lebanon and the Lebanese, including supporters of the political parties. It must also bridge the trust gap between the government and its citizens, as well as with the international community. For this reason, it is essential to press ahead with the appointment of a prime minister. That person must have permission to form a cabinet of independent experts in their respective fields with the moral integrity and courage to make difficult decisions.
The mandate of this cabinet would be to focus exclusively on an economic emergency plan, strengthening the supervisory authorities and a new electoral law. The economic plan would include immediate budget support, likely to come from the international community or from international financial institutions. This includes options for structural reforms, a debt rescheduling plan that allows for fair burden sharing and social protection that will cushion the economic impact on the Lebanese, including the most vulnerable populations. The electoral law would have to take into account the new socio-political realities of Lebanon. This includes lowering the voting age to eighteen to allow young people to vote, while creating fairer conditions for newly formed political parties and independent candidates to compete with established political parties and politicians. Otherwise, the protesters have made it clear that they would continue to insist on taking responsibility for their own future. The current political leaders in Lebanon, most of whom are key actors in the civil war, may also consider taking an alternative route. As unlikely as this may sound, they could acknowledge that the time is dwindling for identity-based politics and crony capitalism. To survive, they need to consider how to transform, broaden their base, and turn to politics based on ideas that can find popular support.
As shown last month, the Lebanese people are largely seeking a new social contract with their state, embodied by a system of governance that recognizes their rights and duties as equal citizens. You want to discuss and let ideas define you, not religious beliefs or ideologies. And they want these ideas to shape discussions about what a future Lebanon should look like. Political parties must heed this call if they want to remain relevant.
In a guest commentary for the Lobe Log blog on November 22nd, Ghassan Michel Rubeiz, former Middle East secretary of the Geneva-based World Council of Churches , wrote that the search for a new prime minister to succeed Saad Hariri implied “a more complicated question of who ( or what) will replace him. "The informal naming of Mohammad Safadi, a controversial business tycoon, has turned out to be" a blatant misjudgment by President Michel Aoun's team ". The uprising that broke out on October 17 did not accept Safadi and his swift refusal to obey Hariri came as no surprise. When Hariri resigned, few expected Aoun to rename him. The Aoun Free Patriotic Movement, the Amal Movement and Hezbollah, these three dominant Iran-backed parties, have tried to convince Hariri to form a new cabinet made up of prominent politicians and experts. But Hariri, following the uprising's demands for non-political specialists, rejects Aoun's formula.
According to Rubeiz, there are reasons Aoun is pushing Hariri. What makes him so indispensable is his personal malleability and his ability to maintain good relations with the Iranian-backed Lebanese parties. At the same time, he uses his broad contacts to Saudi Arabia and the other Arab Gulf states. In addition, his Aounist opponents want him to stay in power. They don't want Hariri to suddenly disappear, leaving them alone to face the growing public unrest. Finally, Hariri's ties in the western countries that have pledged substantial foreign aid to Lebanon could be used to save the country from financial insolvency, as the beneficiary's stability is what counts for foreign aid. There are currently rumors that the president may announce that Hariri is free to form an unrestricted cabinet. But the chances for an apolitical cabinet to get a vote of confidence in parliament are not good, or author. Such a failure could lead Aoun to appoint a new prime minister from his camp, who would likely form the foreseeable status quo of the government. It is also possible that the chaos resulting from belated or failed governance could set the stage for a military coup to "save the country". In desperation, external sources of intervention may be needed to relieve Lebanon. A key factor is the possible rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The former could liberate Lebanon from its Hariri fixation, and the latter could pressure Hezbollah to loosen its power. There are signs of thawing tensions between Riyadh and Tehran over Yemen and Syria , but Lebanon cannot wait long to benefit from such regional miracles. The bottom line is that there aren't any good options right now. There is still no clear leadership in the insurrection and internal government struggles have created more confusion.
Analysis of the attacks by the supporters of Hezbollah and the Amal movement (November 25-26)
The overnight violence - some of the worst since the protests against the country's ruling elite began last month - provided an outlook on a worst-case scenario for the Lebanon crisis, in which the US-trained military is increasingly in the throes In the middle between pro-Hezbollah and anti-Hezbollah is parliamentary groups, wrote the ITV. "With the attack on protesters on Sunday evening, Hezbollah sent a message that it was willing to use force to protect its political power." A confrontation with however, the powerful Iranian-backed Hezbollah is out of the question for the military as it would destroy the neutral position it seeks to maintain and split its ranks. "The army is in a difficult position as it faces numerous challenges and moves carefully between lines," said Fadia Kiwan, professor of political science at Université Saint-Joseph in Beirut. She said the military tried to protect the protesters and freedom of expression , but had become increasingly concerned with dealing with road closures and violence.
Georgi Azar said in An-Nahar (November 26) that Lebanese from all walks of life have shown "a sense of responsibility for 40 days that is seldom observed in today's hypersensitive world." A number of theories have been put forward to delay the formation of a government , but the question now arises as to whether this is a sign that some Lebanese are working against each other just to buy time. After 40 days of peaceful civil disobedience, Lebanon is currently being dragged on the brink of civil war ; the supporters of Hezbollah and Amal are in the foreground in these recent clashes. When they attacked peaceful demonstrators in Beirut and Sour, they “tensed their militia-like muscles”. The lawlessness that has spread over parts of the country is astonishingly conspicuous and revealing. The army and various law enforcement agencies, which were quick to arrest peaceful demonstrators for far less outrageous crimes, have shown extreme reluctance to address the issue. No arrests have been made and no official has condemned the violence of these Hezbollah and Amal members.
“Some are more in favor of a more open society without a proportionate share of denominations in power. The established political movements and parties, on the other hand, see denominationalism as a guarantor that secures their political influence, ”says Joachim Paul from the Heinrich Böll Foundation . The reorganization of the political system called for by the demonstrators will therefore be a long time coming, says journalist and Middle East expert Muhammad Qawas in an interview with Deutsche Welle (November 27). Nobody assumes that the protest movement is seriously in a position to overcome sectarianism. And yet the movement is of historical importance, since there have been no comparable protests since the state was founded in 1943. “I believe that we can only overcome denominational proportional representation in stages,” says Qawas. “We are currently still in the initial phase. But I don't think we will go back to where we started. The political elite have also recognized this. "
According to Michael Young (Carnegie Middle East Center), Hezbollah has identified with it in an attempt to maintain a corrupt political order. Since the beginning of the Lebanese uprising on October 17, the organization has entered a terrible dilemma that may have existential implications for the party. Nasrallah underestimated the lack of trust between the population and the political leadership. In addition, demonstrators saw that the Hezbollah leader was only trying to buy time. When these efforts failed, Nasrallah continued to rail against the protest movement in vain. He is a dedicated tactical rhetorical retreat while using party activists to terrorize protesters. This failed again and heightened public criticism of Hezbollah, which was thoroughly defeated. While she was politically outmaneuvered by Hariri, she also had no military option. Even in Shiite areas, the party has not dared go too far to silence protesters, and its ability to do so in Sunni, Christian and Druze areas is nil.
Hezbollah will remain trapped if it refuses to show flexibility towards a new government. By trying to protect the parasitic allies and their interests, the party only hastened the demise of the system, Young wrote. All the more damaging if the system collapses at a time when Hezbollah is believed to be the strongest defender of the political class that caused this calamity, the consequences for the party could be far-reaching. In a relatively short period of time, there will be no choice but to go to international financial institutions to raise capital for an economy in dire need of liquidity. The political class will have little leeway to prevent such an outcome as the Lebanese will scream by then. In fact, it would likely be suicide for both the political class and Hezbollah. The organization does not offer serious solutions to the problems of a region characterized by deteriorating living conditions. This is a dramatic moment for the party, which is caught in a vortex of discrimination that is in flux in a region, the author concludes.
It has since become clear that Hezbollah and AMAL are not interested in forming a better government, which many Lebanese believe should consist of technocrats who can initiate the necessary reforms, wrote Yochanan Visser in Arutz Sheva (November 30) . Both Shiite militias are only interested in consolidating their influence on affairs in Lebanon and taking action against a government of technocrats while protecting President Michael Aoun, who is hated by most Lebanese and who has remained largely passive during the current turmoil. Hariri briefly considered forming a technocratic government on the condition that Hezbollah and AMAL return to office, but withdrew his candidacy after the two Shiite militias made it clear that they would oppose such a government. According to the author, the Shiite movements need Hariri, a Sunni Muslim, to gain national and international support for a new government, and they realize that Lebanon is viewed as a banana republic that is not worth foreign investment when it comes to power comes. Hezbollah also realizes that it could use brutal force to root out the current unrest and plunge Lebanon into a new civil war. This would mean the end of their participation in the Iranian "axis of resistance" in order to attack Israel in the future. The Iranian proxy has already lost a lot of sympathy among the Lebanese population because he has become part of the corrupt political establishment in the country and realizes that at this point in time he cannot win the hearts of the people with “resistance propaganda”. The only option Hezbollah currently has is an artificial crisis with Israel. This could be the reason why a Lebanese drone entered Israeli airspace in late November. According to the author, a new crisis with Israel could dispel the anger of the Lebanese people and save Hezbollah's deteriorating position in Lebanon.
Possible scenarios
- Joe Macaron (Arab Center Washington DC)
The protesters are demanding the formation of a new government led by non-political technocrats, wrote Joe Macaron in a guest commentary in Al Jazeera. Some political forces would oppose and are likely to be inducted into a new cabinet to reflect the composition of the current Lebanese parliament, which was elected last year.
At this point in time there would be three scenarios with different results, says Macaron:
- Hezbollah and Aoun can decide on their own political calculations. Hezbollah understands that a concordance with a technocrat-led government could mean early elections and a new political process that could reduce its power. If Hariri pulls off a technocratic government, it could mean Hezbollah step back to avoid interfering in the country's political system. However, the group is unlikely to go in that direction.
- Alternatively, Aoun, Hariri and Hezbollah could reach an agreement that eliminates controversial ministers like Bassil, moves some technocrats to ministerial positions, and proposes a reform plan. However, it is more likely that the latest edition from the newly resigned cabinet will be more likely to spark anger and further protests in public.
- Second, Hezbollah and its allies could take the lead in parliament, but it is hard to imagine that they would leave politics to ministers who they cannot control. Alternatively, Aoun and Hezbollah could get Hariri out of the way with their simple majority and let the first government look for some technocrats in their ranks. This would push Hariri into the opposition, forcing him to fight his way back into the "deep state" and rekindle sectarian feelings as Hariri remains the political leader of the Sunni Muslims in Lebanon. Such a Lebanese government could be perceived as controlled by Hezbollah and face sanctions from the US, which has classified Hezbollah as a terrorist organization.
- The third and most likely scenario is that the current cabinet will remain executive in the future. This would be a good idea to indefinitely abandon political and economic paralysis.
- Maha Yahya (Carnegie Middle East Center)
For Maha Yahya, head of the Beirut think tank Carnegie Middle East Center, Hezbollah and its allies are likely to negotiate one of three options with Lebanon's other political parties in the current situation.
- One possibility would be to ask Hariri to form a new government in which the ministers could be apolitical technocrats or a mixture of political and independent candidates nominated by the various political parties. This option is unlikely at this point in time as they rejected a change of cabinet under Hariri at the height of the protests.
- A second, more likely option is to support a national salvation government led by an independent Sunnis acceptable to Hariri. This cabinet would also be made up of independent candidates who are not involved in corruption, or a mix of experts and political representatives. The mandate of such a government would be an economic reform plan, but it would not necessarily organize early elections, as the demonstrators have requested. Consensus in the political class for such a cabinet would be necessary. Political parties may be forced to reach such a consensus once they realize that if they do nothing, the country could be in chaos.
- According to Yahya, a third, currently unfavorable option would be for Hezbollah to adopt a negative position in coordination with the Amal movement and the Aoun Free Patriotic Movement. This would put the country in even greater danger, as it could involve the formation of a cabinet without Hariri's bloc, which is poorly received by its supporters and by an international community that is likely to interpret such a move as a takeover of the country by Hezbollah would. It could also include a stronger demonstration of violence against unarmed demonstrators that would only destabilize the country and potentially plunge Lebanon into civil war. This is currently unlikely as Hezbollah seeks to maintain stability in its own backyard given the regional challenges.
- Yossi Melman (Middle East Eye)
In Israeli eyes, events in Lebanon can lead to two completely contradicting outcomes, like an intersection with two streets - and it is difficult to predict which direction the country will go, describes Yossi Melman (Middle East Eye), Israeli security and intelligence agency -Commenter, the situation.
- First scenario: The country's traditionally established political forces, including Hezbollah, are weakened on one street, which would benefit Israeli interests. So it is no wonder that the Israeli security chiefs are encouraged by the fact that the Lebanese Shiites have marched in the streets of Beirut and especially in Baalbek and Nabatieh, the strongholds of Hezbollah. The singing occasionally heard during some demonstrations - " Allah, Allah, Curse Nasrallah " (Hezbollah's undisputed leader) - is sweet music to the Israeli ears. Cursing Hassan Nasrallah is a blessing to Israel. Hezbollah is indeed concerned about these unprecedented developments.
- Second scenario: The other road towards Lebanon would likely do the opposite in Israel's eyes: the protests would either be crushed or slowly fade, and Hezbollah would be strengthened and become an even more dominant force in the country. There is also the possibility that sooner or later Hezbollah will run out of patience and, in an effort to divert attention from its domestic political problems and challenges, heighten tensions along the Israeli border and even trigger military strikes. Whatever happens to the Lebanese protests through the Israeli prism, Lebanon will primarily remain Hezbollah territory. And Hezbollah for Israel corresponds to Iran, its pursuit of hegemony and control in the region.
Situation after the nomination and appointment of Hassan Diab as the new Prime Minister
The appointment of Hassan Diab would result in a unilateral government, which observers warn that it could fuel sectarian tensions in the streets and hamper the international aid effort needed to keep Lebanon on the brink of bankruptcy. Diab, a professor at the American University of Beirut and a former education minister, was approved by Hezbollah, which with its allies holds a majority in parliament. The talks began with a meeting between Aoun and Hariri, whose al-Mustaqbal movement did not nominate a candidate and is to be excluded from the next government. The 49-year-old prominent Sunni leader had been seen as the most likely choice to lead a technocrat-dominated government in recent days, but announced his retirement late on Wednesday (December 18).
The movement has not gained anything, nor has the domestic political situation been stabilized by the allocation of Diab, wrote Elias Harfoush after Diab's election in Asharq al-Awsat . The result is that Lebanon is entering a period of no political immunity as it faces the most difficult economic crisis since independence. The crisis, which has required internal forces to work side by side to find a solution, is now open to political investment by the stronger party, which sees Hariri's alienation as a victory, supports that stronger side internally. The ongoing clashes around this inauguration and the intensity of the political discourse between the presidential team and the future movement, we can only expect the tensions in the next phase. It is predicted that Hassan Diab will find it very difficult to form his government and that it will be the Lebanese who will pay the price.
According to Maximilian Felsch, political scientist at Haigazian University in Beirut, it remains to be seen whether Hassan Diab will now be successful and be able to form a government. “That is why his success or failure will probably also be measured by whether he succeeds firstly in forming the government at all and secondly in overcoming the financial crisis, which means getting international donors to transfer billions to Lebanon for the country to support and save from collapse. However, since both the USA and the Arab League, and soon the German government too, classify Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, it is also questionable whether they will do Diab this favor. "
Marwan Kraidy (head of the center of Advanced Research in Global Communication at Annenberg School for Communication) hopes that the protests will be more organized and that representatives will actually be elected. There are also very interesting things in the capital; Everywhere in Beirut there are tents in which people are briefed on direct democracy and the fight against corruption - discussions at the highest level. The demonstrations had spawned a new generation who campaigned for a different kind of Lebanon, with post-sectarian politics. Kraidy thinks it will be difficult because you have a very cunning, very anchored political class that knows exactly which emotional fibers to manipulate. So far, however, they have not managed to take over the demonstrators. If there are new parliamentary elections things can change, but here too there is a risk of going from an extremely corrupt status quo to anarchy, and nobody wants that because there are enough people who are going back to the days of civil war recall. There are enough people who know what happened next door in Syria and Iraq, and he believes there is reluctance to push the changes too quickly. These things take time.
Although Diab has claimed that his government will be independent and composed of experts, protesters see it as an obligation to Hezbollah, wrote Imad K Harb, director of research and analysis at the Arab Center Washington DC. “President Aoun and his allies Hezbollah and AMAL know that Diab does not have the support of a particular political bloc and therefore has no chance to meet the demands of the Lebanese protest movement. He may only have been chosen because he poses no threat to the current president and does not seek to limit Hezbollah's influence on state institutions. Diab is likely to soon have the great misfortune of directing the final political, economic and social collapse of Lebanon. While he will find a majority in parliament that can help him push through a limited reform program - the same majority that helped him get the job - he will not see the Lebanese public, who see no hope in the current political system can soothe. At the same time, its association with Hezbollah is unlikely to spark the interest of regional and international communities in helping its government implement the radical economic program it needs to correct its path. His term in office, however long, will be yet another episode of the kind of failed governance that the Lebanese people have been protesting since October. Perhaps it is time for the current elites in Lebanon to accept the change that the demonstrators are calling for: a revision of the political and economic systems that can pave the way for more modern politics and a fairer society. "
Diab faces significant hurdles, including a boycott by influential political blocs that refused to nominate him because of support from the Free Patriotic Movement, Hezbollah, the Amal Party and their allies, Najia Houssari wrote in Arab News (Nov. December). The Future Movement has refused to participate in the new government, while the Lebanese Sunni authority Dar El-Fatwa has not stated its position on Diab's nomination. Political statements suggest that those who pledged to accept Diab's condition of an independent and specialized government with a limited number of ministers have rejected their promise. A decrease in the intensity of the street demonstrations may also have led the political elite to believe they could contain the effects of a crisis that led to Saad Hariri's resignation as prime minister two months ago.
More worrisome than Hezbollah's manipulation of the system is the inability to grasp the gravity of Lebanon's problems, Hussain Abdul-Hussain wrote in the Asia Times. According to Hezbollah leaders, politics and economics are two separate issues and it is more important to ensure that the country is run by compliant officials, be it Shiite, Sunni or Christian. Meanwhile, the economy could repair itself. In a recent speech, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah suggested that the solution to Lebanon's economic woes is to sell its potato crop to Iraq. At a press conference, Hassan Fadlallah, a Hezbollah MP, insisted that the nation's problems were caused by a conspiracy that led the people to remove their capital from the country. Hezbollah's plan to restore Lebanese wealth appears to be to force bankers and corrupt officials to return their money to Beirut. It is completely overlooked that while the latter group embezzled money from public funds and therefore committed a crime, the former group only benefited from a non-illegal decade of high central bank interest rates. There is hardly a clearer example of how little Hezbollah understands governance.
The Lebanese pound has lost a third of its value since September, but despite a parliamentary vote of confidence, it is highly unlikely that Diab and his cabinet will be able to stop the economy from falling further, said Abdul-Hussain critically. The head of Hezbollah, Iran, has big problems. A fuel tax has increased prices by 30% and inflation in Iran has passed the 40% mark. The economic situation is so dire that the financial institutions stopped updating their figures in March. The Lebanese central bank suspended its foreign exchange reserves in 2016. Also that year, Hezbollah forced parliament to elect Michel Aoun as president. Now Hassan Diab has blamed the country as prime minister. The fate of Lebanon is now entirely in the hands of Hezbollah. All pretexts of “consensus democracy” were dropped. The party that crushed Lebanon now owns it. For Hezbollah and its propagandists, the grievances in Lebanon are not the result of inability to govern, but the global conspiracy that the US and the Zionists, with the support of Hezbollah's enemies, are fomenting in Lebanon. Hezbollah and its allies and supporters, like their sponsors in Iran, live in their own alternate reality. In normal countries, crumbling economies usually lead to a drastic change in leadership. In Iran and its satellites - Iraq and Lebanon - the answer is simply to repeat failed strategies over and over again. No wonder the economies of Iran and Lebanon are in free fall with no end in sight. With everything falling apart, politics and cabinet reshuffle seem irrelevant in Beirut. Times of crisis require extraordinary people. Prime Minister-designate Diab, the engineering professor and reluctant former education minister, does not fit the bill. And with Hezbollah signing its term on behalf of the people of Lebanon, the light at the end of the tunnel seems further away than ever, the author's sobering résumé.
According to Emile Nakhleh, professor and director of the UNM's Institute for Global and National Security Policy and a former CIA chief intelligence officer, Hassan Diab is likely to face major challenges as he begins forming a new government. Although the 60-year-old academic does not have sufficient experience in governance, Diab is not affected by corruption or theft of public funds. As Lebanon falls behind, Diab's ability to turn Lebanon back into a functioning system depends on whether he has the courage and vision to implement a revitalization plan that could shake the country to the core. France, Lebanon's most important supporter and historical ally, together with key regional and international donors for the economic recovery of Lebanon, should make it clear to Lebanese politicians that high-level corruption and theft can no longer be tolerated. If Diab is to tackle the country's national and regional challenges, he must form a cabinet of technocrats with expertise in their respective fields, without being constrained by religious quotas. The process must be transparent, inclusive, and reflect the new realities in the country expressed by the protesters.
A tough system of accountability requires clear metrics, said Emile Nakhleh, against which progress can be regularly measured. Regional and international donors should set up an International Monitoring Group (IMG) to assess the new government's financial performance, particularly the disbursement of the billions of dollars in funding from the international donor group. The IMG includes representatives from Qatar , which is expected to be the largest regional contributor to Lebanon's recovery, France, the United States, Germany, the International Monetary Fund , the European Union and the protest movement. Although there is currently no designated head, it should agree on at least one person to represent it in the IMG. The recovery process should focus on four specific projects. The projects cover the banking sector , foreign investment , environment and public services, and the Syrian refugee crisis. International donors through the IMG should provide at least $ 2.5 billion for each of these projects. In close cooperation with the IMG, the government of Prime Minister Diab and representatives of the demonstrators must prepare a referendum for a national vote on the future of the country. The Lebanese people are asked to vote in a national referendum on whether Lebanon should be a secular, democratic republic in which all Lebanese have freedom of speech, assembly, thought, movement and religion, regardless of sect, religion or gender , Education or economic status are guaranteed. A national referendum passed through fair and free elections should go a long way towards restoring the people's confidence in their national institutions. When this is done and Prime Minister Diab is able to connect with the people, Lebanon will be on the road to recovery. In addition, the planned Lebanese democracy will be a fitting New Years present for the peoples of the Middle East.
Nasser H Saidi, economist and former minister of economy and trade, minister for industry and former first lieutenant governor of the Lebanese central bank, formulated a six-point plan to rebuild the Lebanese economy.
- Form a credible, independent new government
- Combating subsidies and other inefficient measures
- Public debt restructuring
- Reform of the country's banks
- Changing monetary policy and creating a flexible exchange rate system
- Participation in an IMF program program
The new republic promoted by the revolutionaries, on the other hand, would take a radically different approach, wrote Ishac Diwan, professor at the École normal supérieure in Paris. The revolutionaries wanted to improve Lebanon, not give up. They believe that it is way below potential and that achievement, achievement and social justice should replace corruption, nepotism and inequality. They want to build dynamic high-tech industries, make agriculture more environmentally friendly, position the country as a cultural powerhouse and create more synergies with the diaspora. In order to achieve these goals, the reform movement wants to strive for an orderly reduction of the national debt, which would be secured with equity capital of the banks, and force the 1% of depositors, who account for more than 50% of all deposits, to haircut. They support moderate currency devaluation and a radical improvement in the business climate in order to boost export competitiveness . And they would seek deep fiscal restructuring that would focus on eliminating corrupt practices and spending more on social programs and infrastructure. The inevitable recession would be eased with support from the international community, including the International Monetary Fund . Today's dispute over the composition of the country's next cabinet is part of a larger struggle for a new political settlement. The financial crisis posed a fatal threat to the country, but it also offered an opportunity for political change. Lebanon's future depends on equilibrium.
Statements from abroad
David Schenker, the top US State Department official for the Middle East, said Thursday (October 24) that the United States is "ready to assist the Lebanese government in its actions." The demonstrations demonstrated the need for an "open discussion" between leaders and citizens about "the Lebanese people's longstanding demands for economic reforms and an end to endemic corruption," Schenker told reporters. Later on Thursday, a representative from the British Embassy in Lebanon said the "legitimate frustrations" of Lebanese protesters should be "heard and reforms carried out urgently".
The Saudi government bulletin has been silent so far (October 25) about the unrest that has rocked Lebanon for more than a week. According to Bloomberg's Donna Abu-Nasr, Fiona MacDonald and Alaa Shahine, this reluctance to interfere may be due to the fact that “their enemy is about to self-destruct. Protesters in Beirut and other Lebanese regions have banded together against a regime dominated by Hezbollah, a proxy for Iran that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have labeled terrorist, and have long sought to undermine the regime. ”Furthermore Prime Minister Saad Hariri is denied financial assistance to prevent money from going to Hezbollah through the government, according to an official and two other people familiar with the matter.
UN chief Antonio Guterres told reporters on Friday (October 25) that public order was increasingly threatened due to the lack of confidence between leaders and people. Regarding the protests in Lebanon, he said his message was that the country must solve its problems through dialogue. He calls on protesters around the world to commit to nonviolence as they seek change and call on leaders to "listen to real people's real problems." Regarding the protests in Lebanon, he said his message was that the country must solve its problems through dialogue. Pope Francis urged the dialogue in Lebanon on Sunday (October 27th): "I would like to address a special thought to the dear Lebanese people, especially to the young people who ... listen carefully to the social and economic challenges and problems facing the country," he said Pope. He hoped that "with the support of the international community, this country can continue to be a space for peaceful coexistence and respect for the dignity and freedom of every human being for the benefit of the entire Middle East."
After Hariri's resignation
The resignation of the Lebanese government made the crisis there “even worse”, said the French foreign minister in the Paris parliament. Jean-Yves Le Drian urged the Lebanese authorities "to do everything in their power to ensure the stability of the institutions and the unity of Lebanon." Le Drian offered France's help, saying that a condition for stability in everyone Country is willing to "listen to the voice and demands of the population".
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US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Tuesday called on Lebanese political leaders to "urgently" form a new government, following the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri, "that can build a stable, prosperous and secure Lebanon that is responsive to the needs of its citizens. “The Lebanese people want an efficient government, economic reforms and an end to endemic corruption, Pompeo said on Tuesday (October 29).
Iran has largely remained silent about the protests in Lebanon and has supported both the government and Hezbollah. Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi only said Tehran's “deep regret” about the numerous demonstrators killed in Iraq. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Wednesday October 30th accused the United States and its allies of “spreading insecurity and turmoil” in Iraq and Lebanon and called on anti-government protesters in both countries to make lawful changes to strive for.
The British embassy in Lebanon issued a statement on Wednesday saying Lebanon was at a crossroads. Whatever the political solution, Lebanon needs a government that can urgently undertake the reforms necessary to create a better country for all. Violence or intimidation of peaceful protests by one group only undermines the unity and stability of Lebanon, the statement said.
The German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas hopes that the resignation of the Lebanese Prime Minister will not affect the country's stability. “The further development in Lebanon is of crucial importance for us and for the entire region. We hope that possible future protests will be peaceful, ”Maas told reporters after meeting his Egyptian counterpart Sameh Shoukry in Cairo. "We don't need a political vacuum (in Lebanon)," he added.
The World Bank urged Lebanese institutions on Wednesday (November 6) to urgently form a new government capable of addressing the country's deteriorating economic situation, warning that the small Mediterranean nation "does not have the luxury of wasting time." The sharp warning came in a statement released following a meeting between the World Bank's regional director and President Michel Aoun amid ongoing mass protests and a severe economic and financial crisis.
The protests in Lebanon have caught the attention of Russian officials and social media users, wrote Marianna Belenkaya in Al Monitor. In many ways, both groups would have projected developments in the Middle East onto Russia's internal reality. Perhaps that is why it took Moscow a while, according to the author, to comment on the dynamic developments in Lebanon. On November 5, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, who is also the Kremlin's Special Envoy for the Middle East and Africa, met with Amal Abou Zeid, an adviser to Lebanese President Michel Aoun. Following the meeting, the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement stating that outside attempts to interfere in Lebanese affairs were inadmissible. Russia “stressed its support for the sovereignty, independence, unity and stability of Lebanon and reiterated its strict and consistent stance that all topical issues on the national agenda must be addressed by the Lebanese people within the legal framework of an inclusive dialogue in Lebanon civil peace and consensus, ”read the statement. It also said: "Russia considers any external attempts to interfere in Lebanese affairs or to try out geopolitical scenarios in which the existing difficulties of the friendly Lebanon are used and artificially escalated to be unacceptable."
The members of the European Parliament will convene a symposium on November 14, 2019 in Brussels to discuss the security and economic situation in Lebanon. In addition to European parliamentarians from all over Europe, Lebanese journalists, media professionals, lawyers and various relevant personalities will also be present. Participants will ask the Member of the European Parliament to investigate this matter in order to freeze the illegal and suspicious accounts to which funds have been illegally transferred.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in early November: “The Iraqi and Lebanese people want their countries to return. They discover that one of the most important export goods of the Iranian regime is corruption, which is disguised as a revolution. Iraq and Lebanon deserve to make their own courses free from Khamenei's interference. ”To this, the chief of the Lebanese armed forces, Samir Geagea , replied in a tweet on Saturday:“ With great thanks, Mr. Pompeo, [but] the Lebanese do not need any help to get out of their life, social and economic crisis ”.
- After the attacks by Hezbollah and the Amal movement (November 25)
The UN Security Council on Monday (25 November) urged all actors in Lebanon to participate in an “intensive national dialogue and to preserve the peaceful character of the protests” by upholding the right to peaceful assembly and protest. The most powerful organ of the United Nations called this "a very critical time for Lebanon" and also paid tribute to the Lebanese armed forces and state security institutions for their role in protecting the right to peaceful assembly and protest.
After Hassan Diab's appointment as future Prime Minister
When asked whether France believes that the appointment of Hassan Diab as Lebanese Prime Minister could facilitate access to the reforms necessary to obtain international financial aid, the French Foreign Ministry spokesman replied: It is not our business to educate the to comment on the future Lebanese government. It is up to the Lebanese officials to do this, taking into account the general interest of all Lebanese. The only criterion should be the effectiveness of this government in implementing the reforms that people are waiting for.
The International Assistance Group for Lebanon (ISG) expressed surprise on Sunday (December 29) at reports from its ambassadors to the country that there were obstacles to the formation of a new government by the political parties that supported his appointment for the Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab were created. According to the ISG, these political leaders were trying to hinder Diab's mission by making demands that contradict his hopes of forming a cabinet out of popular protests and alleviating the crisis of confidence between them and the political class, an ambassador said on Sunday opposite Asharq Al-Awsat. In addition, the ISG understood the positions of parliamentary blocs and MPs who refused to appoint Diab, particularly that of Saad Hariri, head of the country's largest Sunni parliamentary bloc. Another ISG ambassador told Asharq Al-Awsat that France had recently contacted other members of the group and spoke out against abandoning the political situation in Lebanon. Instead, she called for the formation of a cabinet that can resolve the country's social, financial and economic crisis and implement the CEDRE reforms to restore local, Arab and regional confidence to be accelerated. Earlier this month, the ISG held a meeting in Paris to assist Lebanon in resolving its current crisis. The ISG had urged Lebanon to adopt a comprehensive, reliable and comprehensive package of measures to implement economic reforms to restore the country's financial stability and remedy long-term structural deficiencies. "The group stands ready to remove obstacles that are delaying the formation of a new cabinet by establishing contacts between the ISG and the political team that are hindering Diab's mission," said the envoy.
Expressions of solidarity
The protests were greeted worldwide by demonstrations of sympathy and solidarity from Lebanese living abroad, people with Lebanese roots and other people and groups. Members of the Lebanese and Chilean congregations met in front of Cologne Cathedral on October 23, 2019. They showed their solidarity with the current demonstrations in their home countries. People demonstrated in front of the Lebanese embassy in London on October 26, 2019, calling for the Lebanese government to resign. On October 27, 2019, residents of Lebanese origin held a solidarity rally in the cities of Lyon and Melbourne . Churches in Italy rang in solidarity with Lebanese protests. Lebanese immigrants in Arizona have also protested to show solidarity with the Lebanese. The protests coincided with actions in more than 30 major American and Canadian cities, organized by Arizona State University , the Lebanese Student Association (LSA) and the Arizona Lebanese Community. On November 22, 2019 at 9 p.m., around 500,000 Lebanese citizens in 64 cities around the world were synchronized via an online broadcasting platform to sing the Lebanese national anthem.
See also
Web links
- Ibrahim Al Marashi: These memes explain the protests in Lebanon. TRT World, October 22, 2019 (English).
- Abby Sewell: Their city lacks public spaces for protests, so Beirut residents made their own. Los Angeles Times , October 21, 2019 (English).
- Hrag Vartanian: Signs and Banners From the 2019 Protests in Downtown Beirut. Hyperallergic.com, October 22, 2019 (English).
- Ben Wedeman: Lebanon protests represent against frustration in the Middle East (video). CNN, October 24, 2019 (English).
- Mina Aldroubi: The best moments from 10 days of protests in Lebanon. The National, October 27, 2019 (French).
- As'ad AbuKhalil: The Angry Arab: The Origins of Lebanon's Protests. Consortium News, November 7, 2019 (English).
- Habib Battah: A new politics is rising in Lebanon - With each new crisis, alternatives to an entrenched, sectarian political system are growing stronger and more organized. Al Jazeera, November 15, 2019 (English).
- Lebanon: Excessive Force Against Protesters - Teargas, Water Cannons, Rubber Bullets Fired on Crowds. Human Rights Watch , December 20, 2019, accessed December 20, 2019 .
- Valentina von Finckenstein: Paralysis in times of crisis: The immense challenges for Lebanon grow with its political inability to act. Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, January 17, 2020, accessed on January 31, 2020 .
- Wierbke Diehl: "Then we would have the chance to abolish confessionalism" A conversation with Kamal Hamdan. About the causes of the protests in Lebanon, the hope for change and the uncertain future in the region. Junge Welt, February 1, 2020, accessed on February 2, 2020 .
Individual evidence
- ^ A b c Leonhardt, Christoph: Lebanon am Scheideweg, Rubikon. November 23, 2019, accessed May 4, 2020 .
- ↑ Alasdair Soussi: Years after Taif, Lebanese call for end to sectarian politics. aljazeera.com, October 22, 2019, accessed October 22, 2019 .
- ^ Agence France-Presse: Lebanese Protesters Face Off Against Army as Demos Continue. Voice of America, October 23, 2019, accessed October 24, 2019 .
- ↑ a b c d Nils Metzger: Protests in Lebanon - The frustration over corrupt elites. heute.de, October 21, 2019, accessed on October 22, 2019 .
- ^ A b Christian Weisflog: Protests in Lebanon: «We want our future back». Neue Zürcher Zeitung, October 20, 2019, accessed on October 22, 2019 .
- ↑ Reuters: Lebanon protests enter 10th day with no end in sight, army tries to open roads. October 26, 2019, accessed October 26, 2019 .
- ↑ Hariri announces the resignation of his government. Deutschlandfunk, October 29, 2019, accessed on October 29, 2019 .
- ^ Protests Return to Lebanon Day after Hariri's Resignation. Asharq Al-Awsat, October 30, 2019, accessed October 31, 2019 .
- ↑ Naharnet Newsdesk: Protesters Hold Central demonstration in Beirut to Show 'Unity' Exert 'Pressure'. Naharnet, November 2, 2019, accessed November 3, 2019 .
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- ^ Sunniva Rose: One month in, Lebanon protesters score electoral win but politicians still deadlocked. The National, October 17, 2019, accessed November 17, 2019 .
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- ^ Georgi Azar: The sectarianization of Lebanon and smearing a revolution - Hezbollah and Amal supporters, as we have become accustomed to seeing, are front and center in these latest clashes. An-Nahar , November 26, 2019, accessed November 26, 2019 .
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- ^ Joe Macaron: What next for Lebanon after Hariri's strategic exit? There are at least three scenarios for what happens after PM Saad Hariri's resignation. Al Jazeera, October 30, 2019, accessed October 31, 2019 .
- ↑ Maha Yahya: After the Lebanon Protests: Between the Party of God and Party of the People. Carnegie Middle East Center, November 1, 2019, accessed November 5, 2019 .
- ^ A b Yossi Melman: All eyes on Hezbollah: How Israel is watching the protests in Lebanon. Middle East Eye, October 4, 2019, accessed November 5, 2019 .
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- ^ US, UK Come on the Scene in Lebanon Protests, Voice 'Readiness to Assist'. Almanar, October 24, 2019, accessed October 24, 2019 .
- ↑ Donna Abu-Nasr, Fiona MacDonald and Alaa Shahine: Beirut protests draw careful silence from Saudi Arabia. Daily Star, October 26, 2019, accessed October 26, 2019 .
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- ↑ Khamenei says US stoking 'chaos' amid Iraq, Lebanon protests. Al Jazeera, October 30, 2019, accessed October 31, 2019 .
- ^ British Embassy in Beirut: Lebanon is at a crossroads. LBCI Group, October 30, 2019, accessed October 30, 2019 .
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- ^ Zeina Karam: World Bank sounds alarm about Lebanon amid protests, crisis. San Diego Union Tribune, October 6, 2019, accessed November 6, 2019 .
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- ↑ Naharnet Newsdesk: Geagea Replies to Pompeo Remarks on Lebanon. Naharnet, November 9, 2019, accessed November 10, 2019 .
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- ↑ Conference Economique pour le development, par les reformes et avec les entreprises
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- ^ In Sydney, protest staged in solidarity with Lebanon. In: News portal LBC Group TV (Lebanon), http://www.lbcgroup.tv/ . October 20, 2019, accessed October 23, 2019 .
- ^ Solidarity with protests in Chile and Lebanon in front of the Cologne main station. Report Cologne, October 24, 2019, accessed on October 24, 2019 .
- ↑ 10th day of protest in a row: injured people and sit-ins. Euro News, October 27, 2019, accessed on October 27, 2019 .
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- ^ Churches in Italy ring bells in solidarity with Lebanese protests. LBCI, October 28, 2019, accessed October 28, 2019 .
- ^ Lebanese in Arizona stage peaceful protest in solidarity with Lebanon. LBC Group, October 28, 2019, accessed October 28, 2019 .
- ^ This Movement Has Been Supporting the Uprisings in Lebanon. The961.com, December 31, 2019, accessed January 1, 2020 .