Demography of Thuringia
The demography of Thuringia is the totality of demographic conditions and processes in the German state of Thuringia . It is subject to strong changes, so the total population has decreased by almost a third since the peak shortly after the Second World War. At the regional level, there are growing cities and rural communities, some of which have lost well over half of their population, in the same period. A declining total population is also expected for the future, with local developments differing greatly.
Between January 1, 1989 and December 31, 2012, a balance of 257,163 people left the country, mostly to the old federal states (especially to the economically strong neighboring states of Bavaria and Hesse ), and also to the eastern German metropolises of Berlin , Leipzig and Dresden as well to a lesser extent abroad (here Switzerland , Austria and Scandinavia were the most important target regions). The migration balance has been positive since 2013, adding up to a total of 31,243 people between December 31, 2012 and December 31, 2017, with net immigration from abroad being solely responsible for this. The birth deficit in the period from January 1, 1989 to December 31, 2017 totaled 297,534 people. This results in a population decrease of 20% since 1989.
Historical development
Premodern
Almost all settlements in Thuringia are of medieval origin, with the written tradition of the founding of the place starting in 700. First of all, the climatic and topographical favorable locations were cultivated, hill areas followed later, while the mountain areas remained largely uninhabited until the late Middle Ages . Technological advances and increasing population pressure in populated areas finally led to the establishment of localities on the heights of the Thuringian Forest and Thuringian Slate Mountains as well as in drained lowlands . Overall, the settlement process was completed at the end of the 15th century, so that no new local foundations followed on a larger scale.
Large parts of East Thuringia were settled by Slavic groups in the Middle Ages , which is still indicated by many place names of this origin . The medieval eastern settlement brought about the assimilation of the Slavic population groups in the 12th and 13th centuries , which gradually lost their original cultural identity and became part of the German population.
In the Middle Ages and in the early modern period , the Thuringian Basin and other agricultural favorable locations such as the Altenburger Land , the Orlasenke , the Grabfeld and the Goldene Aue as well as convenient locations along the large river valleys and the Via regia were densely populated. Comparatively wealthy farming villages and trading towns emerged here, while the high elevations, for example in the slate mountains, were characterized by poverty and adverse living conditions at the end of the early modern period.
The late 18th and 19th centuries brought about a strong overall population growth. As a result of the demographic transition , the population grew rapidly, especially in rural areas, and before urbanization began around 1840, it reached values in some places that were only briefly reached again after the Second World War, due to the settlement of numerous expellees.
Industrialization and urbanization up to the Second World War
Industrialization began in 1840 , at the same time the railway network was built and the process of urbanization began: Now the cities that were able to attract most immigrants in their immediate regional area grew, which reduced the pressure of the population there. Nevertheless, many people also emigrated in the 19th century, for example to the United States or Brazil . The forerunner of industrialization was the East Thuringian textile industry with locations such as Gera , Zeulenroda , Pößneck or Apolda , so that a strong migration movement, combined with a surge in urbanization, began here as early as the middle of the 19th century. Other branches of the manufacturing industry followed later, such as the metal industry and machine and vehicle construction in cities such as Erfurt , Gotha , Suhl and Eisenach . The optical and glass industries at locations such as Jena and Ilmenau were among the last to industrialize at the beginning of the 20th century . In Thuringia, there was still a small town but still industrial character. Erfurt remained the only major city in the state from 1906 to 1959, although the population density of Thuringia was relatively high in comparison with other German cities before the Second World War.
| Urbanization rates in Thuringia | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| city | Population 1843 | Inhabitants 1939 | change |
| Erfurt | 28,430 | 159.201 | + 460% |
| Gera | 11,255 | 81,931 | + 628% |
| Jena | 5,166 | 68,377 | + 1224% |
| Weimar | 11,444 | 65,916 | + 476% |
| Gotha | 13,321 | 51,995 | + 290% |
| Eisenach | 9,377 | 50,464 | + 438% |
| Altenburg | 13,697 | 44,338 | + 224% |
| Mulhouse | 12,650 | 41,493 | + 228% |
| Nordhausen | 12,564 | 40,673 | + 224% |
| Greiz | 6.215 | 38,933 | + 526% |
| Apolda | 3,298 | 27,936 | + 747% |
| Suhl | 7,828 | 23,168 | + 196% |
| Arnstadt | 4,709 | 22,619 | + 380% |
| Saalfeld | 4,417 | 21,980 | + 398% |
| Sonneberg | 3,606 | 20.204 | + 460% |
From World War II to reunification
At the end of the Second World War, many displaced persons from Eastern Europe and war refugees from the destroyed metropolitan areas came to the relatively unspoilt Thuringia, especially in rural regions, so that the population briefly rose to around three million. When the supply situation did not improve under Soviet occupation and fell behind compared to the Trizone , many residents and displaced persons left the country for the west. This process continued rapidly in the 1950s and was only interrupted when the inner-German border was closed in 1961.
In the following period, the population remained relatively constant, with a slight downward trend, as the GDR government managed to keep the number of children at a high level through its family and social policy, so that the pill break in the 1970s became the Honeckerbuckel in the 1980s -Years with baby boomers followed. At the local level, however, there were significant population shifts. In addition to Erfurt and two new large cities ( Gera from 1959 and Jena from 1975), the district town of Suhl and some medium-sized centers (above all the town of Leinefelde , but also Sömmerda , Ilmenau , Hermsdorf and Bad Salzungen ) were heavily promoted by the state housing policy and expanded, while most other cities stagnated in their population. Rural areas, on the other hand, were neglected by the housing policy of the GDR, so that the population of the villages declined (sometimes rapidly) between 1950 and 1990, which was also structurally due to the concentration of industrial companies in the cities and the rationalization of agriculture . Overall, the urbanization trend (unlike in West Germany) continued during the GDR period.
After reunification
After reunification , there was a drastic drop in birth rates in the 1990s, which was not overcome until the mid-2000s. Since then, the number of children per woman has been slightly above the national average again. At the same time, there were two strong waves of emigration to the old federal states. The first wave spanned the years 1989 to 1991, when on balance more than 130,000 residents left the country. The second wave of emigration followed in the years 2000 to 2009, as the economic situation in Thuringia did not improve and young people in particular saw no prospects for themselves. On balance, the country lost another 110,000 inhabitants, including particularly young adults from the baby boom in the 1980s. Migration has calmed down since 2010 because, on the one hand, the low-birth cohorts in the 1990s grew into the “migration age” and, on the other hand, the economic situation has improved significantly, for example in terms of unemployment and the search for apprenticeships, while the wage gap with the old federal states has not increased significantly has shrunk.
Immigration from abroad also changed after reunification. Whereas during the GDR era only contract workers from Vietnam , Poland and Mozambique immigrated for a limited period of time, migrants from all over the world came to Thuringia for permanent living. Of the GDR contract workers, only a few Vietnamese remained in the country after reunification, so that they still constitute one of the largest migrant groups in Thuringia. Nevertheless, the proportion of foreigners in Thuringia remained low due to the weak economic structure and is well below the German average.
At the local level, too, the population structure changed again after reunification. A brief wave of suburbanization took place in the 1990s , but it subsided in the 2000s. Nevertheless, this wave shapes many communities along the federal highway 4 between the big cities to this day. At the same time , the cities all experienced a strong shrinking process that did not differentiate until after 2000. Since then, some cities have grown again, while others continue to shrink, with decreasing intensity. In rural areas, on the other hand, population losses accelerated rapidly after 2000 and were regionally dispersed, so that a phase of relative urbanization has occurred again in which the proportion of urban population is increasing.
Immigration from abroad has been increasing sharply in Thuringia and throughout Germany since around 2012. On the one hand, there is a particular focus on migrant workers from the eastern and southern EU countries, who are the first to fill demographic gaps in the labor market (especially in the apprenticeship market and in shortage occupations ), and on the other hand, asylum seekers , of whom Thuringia accepts 2.75% according to the Königstein key . As a result, the migration balance has been positive again since 2013.
Development of the population
Values from 1950: territorial status 1994 (no change to date); Data as of December 31 of each year; Source: TLS
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| Population development since 2000 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| year | Residents | change | Birth balance | Migration balance |
| 2000 | 2,431,255 | −0.73% | −8.504 | −9,973 |
| 2001 | 2,411,387 | −0.82% | −8.148 | −11,719 |
| 2002 | 2,392,040 | −0.80% | −8.993 | −10.279 |
| 2003 | 2,373,157 | −0.79% | −9,309 | −9,481 |
| 2004 | 2,355,280 | −0.75% | −8.015 | −9,899 |
| 2005 | 2,334,575 | −0.88% | −8,982 | −11,820 |
| 2006 | 2,311,140 | −1.00% | −9.197 | −14,270 |
| 2007 | 2,289,219 | −0.95% | −8,636 | −13.310 |
| 2008 | 2,267,763 | −0.94% | −8,944 | −12,693 |
| 2009 | 2,249,882 | −0.79% | −9,920 | −8.026 |
| 2010 | 2,235,025 | −0.66% | −9.174 | −5,741 |
| 2011 | 2,221,222 | −0.62% | −9,647 | −4,209 |
| 2011 | 2,181,603 | new status according to census (−1.78%) | ||
| 2012 | 2,170,460 | −0.51% | −9,799 | −1,728 |
| 2013 | 2,160,840 | −0.44% | −10.167 | 152 |
| 2014 | 2,156,759 | −0.19% | −9.070 | 4,721 |
| 2015 | 2,170,714 | +0.65% | −10.896 | 24,633 |
| 2016 | 2,158,128 | −0.58% | −9,837 | −2.255 |
| 2017 | 2.151.205 | −0.32% | −11.229 | 3,992 |
| 2018 | 2,143,145 | −0.37% | −12,387 | 4,559 |
Population
As of December 31, 2017, Thuringia had a total of 2,151,205 inhabitants. This corresponds to a decrease of 0.32% compared to the previous year.
Regional distribution in space
Compared to most other federal states, the population of Thuringia is relatively homogeneously distributed over the state area. In particular, the lack of larger agglomerations is typical, on the other hand there are no larger areas with extremely low population density. However, demographic change is leading to increasing polarization, as a result of which the population density continues to decrease, especially in the already sparsely populated regions. Rising infrastructure costs due to underutilization then lead to a negative spiral of decreasing attractiveness and decreasing supply. Some areas of northern Thuringia between Mühlhausen and Sondershausen , the southern district of Hildburghausen or the south of the Saale-Orla district , where population densities are already well below 50 inhabitants per square kilometer, are particularly affected by this .
The degree of urbanization in Thuringia is below average in a national comparison, but is increasing steadily, as the rural communities are shrinking significantly faster than the cities. According to a narrower definition that only takes into account municipalities with more than 20,000 inhabitants, the degree of urbanization in Thuringia in 2013 was around 42%. If you add the communities with more than 5,000 inhabitants, it rises to around 64% (2013), with some large rural communities that do not have an urban center (e.g. Uhlstädt-Kirchhasel ). If the city is defined as a municipality with municipal rights in the legal sense, the proportion of the urban population in 2013 was 68%, although the significance of this value in terms of settlement structure is low due to the numerous small towns such as Ummerstadt or cities, which, such as Großenehrich, mainly consist of incorporated village districts.
Demographic dynamics also differ between cities and rural communities. The proportion of migrants is higher in the cities, while it is close to zero in the countryside. In addition, the migration losses are greater in rural communities (while the large cities in particular are registering gains) and the birth deficits are higher, which leads to a less favorable age structure. The population losses in recent years have almost exclusively been at the expense of rural areas, where many smaller communities have extremely high birth deficits, so that in some cases three times as many deaths as births are registered per year. Since around 2010, a new wave of suburbanization can be observed in the towns between Erfurt, Weimar and Jena, which was caused by the interest-related real estate boom and the declining inner-city building plot for single-family homes in these cities. Well-connected communities such as Mönchenholzhausen , Mellingen or Magdala benefit from this .
| Population by size of municipality (area status 2016) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size class | Population 2011 | Share 2011 | Population 2016 | Share 2016 |
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Big city (over 100,000 inhabitants) |
308.380 | 14.1% | 321.434 | 14.9% |
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Mittelstadt (20,000 to 100,000 inhabitants) |
599,753 | 27.5% | 598.705 | 27.7% |
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Small town and rural communities (less than 20,000 inhabitants) |
1,273,470 | 58.4% | 1,237,989 | 57.4% |
International migration and foreigners
Since there are no large metropolitan areas in the country, international migration to a noteworthy extent is a relatively new phenomenon. The first foreigners came to the country at the end of the 1960s as part of the contract labor agreements between the GDR and other socialist states . Throughout the GDR, however, their number was below 20,000 until the end of the 1970s, and many of the contract workers only stayed for a few years because permanent immigration to the GDR was not planned. Only in the last few years of the GDR did their number rise to almost 100,000 (in the entire GDR), with Vietnam being the most important country of origin. After reunification, some of the Vietnamese stayed in Thuringia, so that they still represent one of the larger groups of migrants.
In the 1990s, immigration to Germany reached a peak during the collapse of Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union , which was also noticeable in Thuringia. The number of foreigners rose to around 30,000 to 40,000 and then stagnated until around 2010. Since then it has risen again, increasing from 33,000 to 97,000 between May 2011 (census) and December 2017, which corresponds to a threefold increase within six and a half years. The proportion of foreigners at 4.5% (2017) is nevertheless the lowest of all federal states. In addition, the regions of origin of the foreign population are more heterogeneous than the national average, since immigration essentially only took place in the age of globalization and was not limited to a few countries of origin, as was the case in western Germany in the 1960s.
| Most important countries of origin of foreigners in Thuringia 2017 |
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|---|---|---|---|
| space | country | people | proportion of |
| 1. | Syria ( Article ) | 15.210 | 15.1% |
| 2. | Poland ( article ) | 10,490 | 10.4% |
| 3. | Afghanistan ( article ) | 7,050 | 7.0% |
| 4th | Romania ( article ) | 6,875 | 6.8% |
| 5. | Iraq ( Article ) | 4,570 | 4.5% |
| 6th | Russia ( article ) | 4,430 | 4.4% |
| 7th | Bulgaria ( article ) | 3,375 | 3.3% |
| 8th. | Vietnam ( article ) | 2,905 | 2.9% |
| 9. | Hungary ( article ) | 2,860 | 2.8% |
| 10. | Ukraine ( article ) | 2,450 | 2.4% |
| for information: total ex- Soviet Union |
11,895 | 11.8% | |
| for information: total ex- Yugoslavia |
4,845 | 4.8% | |
| For information: total Eastern EU countries 1 |
30,690 | 30.4% | |
The 2011 census led to a correction of the number of foreigners from 51,000 (as of December 31, 2011 based on the old update) to 35,000 (as of December 31, 2011, based on the new), which corresponds to a deviation of almost a third. For the first time, the proportion of the population with a migration background was also recorded as part of the census . In Thuringia, 71,000 inhabitants had a migration background according to the statistical definition, which corresponded to a population share of 3.3%. While around 26% of migrants in Germany came from outside Europe, the figure in Thuringia was 34%, which underlines the heterogeneous origin of the immigrants. While 46% of migrants across Germany had been living in the country for more than 20 years, in Thuringia it was at least 32% who immigrated during the GDR era or in the first years after the fall of the Wall. Only in the last nine years have 24% of German migrants and 36% of migrants in Thuringia immigrated. Around 500 people are naturalized in Thuringia each year , which slightly reduces the number of foreigners each year.
A not insignificant part of immigration from abroad can be traced back to refugees and asylum seekers, who are initially distributed evenly to the rural districts and urban districts via the state's initial reception facility in Eisenberg . After completing the procedure, recognized asylum seekers can freely choose their place of residence, which often leads to a renewed migration movement, now to the western German metropolitan areas. In 2017 around 30% of all foreigners in the Free State were refugees.
The local distribution of migrants and foreigners is different. The larger cities had a share of around 7 to 8% of foreigners in 2017, while in the smaller municipalities it was almost consistently below 2%.
Gender and age structure
The natural gender distribution at birth is around 105 men to 100 women. In Thuringia (as in the other new federal states) it was found that the migration behavior of young adults is gender-specific. In rural areas in particular, this has led to a considerable surplus of men and a shortage of women, which, as it coincides with the start-up phase, has a negative impact on the birth rates in these regions. The gender gap opens up from around the age of 20 and reaches a peak among 25 to 40 year olds, with around 115 to 120 men for every 100 women of their year. Only then does it close again, and among those over 65 there is a surplus of women that increases with age, but this has a natural, non-migration-related cause due to the higher life expectancy of women. The future must show whether the surplus of men in the family formation phase is just a one-off phenomenon caused by the demographic upheavals after the reunification or a structurally entrenched problem. In any case, the impact on the already low birth rate is negative.
The age structure of the Thuringian population is characterized by an increasing aging population, which, however, appears very differently locally. In some communities in the Thuringian Slate Mountains and Thuringian Forest, the proportion of over 65-year-olds is already around 30%, with an upward trend. Even before reunification, these regions were affected by the departure of young people and are therefore most strongly influenced by demographic change in the traditional sense. The Altenburger Land and parts of the Greiz district also have communities with a senior citizen share of around 30%. In Central Thuringia around Erfurt , Weimar and Jena , the proportion of people over 65 is only around 20%, although it is also increasing there (more slowly). One problem that arises from aging in the medium term is the drastic decline in the labor force potential . According to the census, around 502,000 people will retire from the Thuringian labor market between 2011 and 2026, while only around 236,000 will reach working age (18 to 65 years). Excluding migrations, there will be a decline in the labor force potential of 266,000 people in the next 15 years, which the labor market will have to compensate for through immigration , increased productivity and the activation of labor reserves. After decades of high unemployment, a labor shortage is emerging as an economic challenge in the Free State.
| Gender and age structure (according to 2011 census) |
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| Age group | Share of total population |
Proportion of men in age group |
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| under 18 | 13.1% | 51.3% | |
| 18 to 39 | 25.0% | 53.4% | |
| 40 to 64 | 38.6% | 50.3% | |
| from 65 | 23.2% | 41.5% | |
Population movements
Births and deaths
Until 1971 Thuringia had a birth surplus ; until this year the natural population grew (without migration effects, which are referred to as spatial population movement). Between 1972 and 1977 there was a birth deficit in the pill kink , while between 1978 and 1988 a surplus was recorded again. This renewed rise in the birth rate only took place in the GDR and not in West Germany, which is why demographic research speaks of the Honeckerbuckel , which is in part attributed to the GDR government's family and social policy. During this time the fertility rate rose to 1.8 to 1.9 children per woman and was still below the maintenance level of 2.1. Because the population was comparatively young at the time, this value was sufficient for a positive birth balance. From 1989 the balance was negative again and reached an absolute low at the turning point. In 1994 the birth rate was only 0.77 children per woman, which is one of the lowest values ever recorded worldwide. The birth rate has been rising again since 1995, in 2007 the national average was reached and in the following years the birth rate was and is again slightly above the national average. Nevertheless, the overall birth deficit has not decreased since 1999, as the decline in the number of women of childbearing age is not offset by the increase in the number of children per woman.
| Total birth rate in Thuringia |
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| year | Births per woman |
| 1980 | 1.91 |
| 1985 | 1.71 |
| 1990 | 1.50 |
| 1995 | 0.86 |
| 2000 | 1.21 |
| 2005 | 1.26 |
| 2010 | 1.43 |
| 2014 | 1.55 |
The number of deaths fell from around 33,500 to around 26,000 in the 1990s (-22%), which can be attributed to medical advances and improved health care after reunification. The general living conditions (environmental pollution, risk of accidents and workload, housing situation, health awareness and supply situation) also improved, so that life expectancy increased overall compared to the GDR period, which led to delay effects in deaths. In addition, some of the men who would have reached the natural end of their life expectancy in the 1990s had already died as soldiers in World War II , which further reduced the number of deaths in that decade. The general population decline in the 1990s, on the other hand, had no influence on the death rate, as it was mainly due to the departure of young people and the absence of births at the turning point - both effects that are not dependent on deaths.
The number of deaths is the most predictable criterion of population development , which is why clear predictions can be made here for the next few years. According to this, the number of deaths will increase rapidly from 27,000 in 2012 to around 30,000 per year in the next ten years and then remain at this high level for a long time (due to the death of the baby boom post-war cohorts around 2050). Only then do the pill kink and the migration of the turning point have a dampening effect on the number of deaths. At the same time, the number of women of childbearing age continues to decline, so that the number of births will decrease and the birth deficit will increase to up to 20,000 per year in the medium term, relatively regardless of whether the number of births per woman is closer to 1.2 or closer to 1.6 . In order to compensate for the birth deficit, it would have to be around 4.0 in 2030 - a level that is no longer achieved even in most developing countries .
hikes
In view of the drastic decline in the natural population (births and deaths), the importance of migration increases sharply, especially the smaller the spatial unit under consideration. Overall, the demographic change means that Thuringia will in future be dependent on a high level of immigration from outside in order to maintain the labor market, the national economy and social life.
Hikes within Thuringia
The intraregional migration in Thuringia has been characterized by an influx from the countryside to the cities since industrialization, which has existed and continues across all systems to this day. This development was only interrupted by two special effects: on the one hand, there were migration movements during and shortly after the Second World War, which were less voluntary than rather due to the constraints of the time; on the other hand, the short wave of suburbanization in the 1990s, as the major ones Cities massively lost population to their surrounding areas. Immigration from the Thuringian regions is concentrated most strongly in the state capital Erfurt, but Jena and most medium-sized towns as well as some small towns can also benefit from immigration at this level. This is how the urbanization of Thuringia continues.
| Internal migration balances (within Thuringia) of the independent cities in the last 5 years (2013 to 2017) |
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| city | Balance (aggregated) 1 | per 1000 inhabitants |
| Erfurt | +6,795 | +31.9 |
| Jena | +2,780 | +25.0 |
| Gera 2 | −2,834 | −29.9 |
| Weimar | +1,120 | +17.4 |
| Eisenach | +1,817 | +42.5 |
| Suhl 2 | −5,985 | −170.2 |
Hikes between Thuringia and the other federal states
With most of the other federal states, Thuringia shows a negative net migration . This is mainly caused by young people looking for attractive jobs and living conditions. There are various reasons for this: On the one hand, there is still a general wage gap between Thuringia and the old federal states, which makes work in Thuringia comparatively unattractive. On the other hand, there is a structural shortage of highly paid jobs for highly qualified people. Thuringia does offer an attractive range of universities, however, due to the poorly performing economy without large solvent companies , there is a lack of adequately paid jobs for academics . Last but not least, Thuringia lacks big city metropolises that provide desirable living conditions for some young people. This explains the high loss of migration to Saxony (almost exclusively from Leipzig and Dresden ) and Berlin , whose economic potential is otherwise little different from Thuringia. Overall, migration behavior between Thuringia and the other federal states has changed considerably since 2000. The negative migration balance to most of the old federal states decreased significantly, while it increased particularly with Saxony and Berlin. In 2016 there was a one-time increase in the negative internal migration balance, which was due to the departure of recognized refugees, especially to North Rhine-Westphalia and Lower Saxony.
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Hikes between Thuringia and abroad
As at the national level, immigration from abroad to Thuringia was comparatively high in the 1990s, before it declined in the 2000s and was even negative in a few years, only to increase more sharply in the 2010s. However, the greatest importance of migration between Thuringia and abroad lies in the future. If in the next 15 years around 18,000 fewer people enter the Thuringian labor market than they leave due to their age and at the same time 7,000 people (mostly of the young working age) leave Thuringia for other federal states, there will be a gap of 25,000 people annually due to immigration abroad would have to be closed in order to keep the national economy and demographic situation in balance. Thuringia is currently still a long way from this, but the local labor market is becoming relatively more attractive due to the economic weakness of some southern and eastern European EU countries (which are subject to freedom of movement ), so that immigration from abroad is already increasing and the situation is more positive than ever a few years ago. At the highest level of unemployment in February 2005, 239,000 Thuringians were still unemployed (rate: 19.4%), while in August 2018 it was only 60,000, bringing the rate to 5.4%. The age structure of the working population in Thuringia will result in the unemployment rate continuing to decline (with the economy moving sideways) up to a demographic-related shortage of workers in the medium-term, which immigration from abroad will help to cover.
Migration with foreign countries is mainly concentrated in large and medium-sized towns and some small towns, while the rural communities are largely left out. The most important countries of origin of immigrants in recent years have been on the one hand, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (some of which the EU - free movement subject), which is mainly to labor migration concerns (such as in the health professions, such as doctors and nurses), and on the other by war Affected countries whose residents have been granted asylum as refugees in Germany (especially Syria , Afghanistan and Iraq ). For some smaller Eastern European countries, especially Hungary (also caused there by a failed government policy), Serbia and Bulgaria , but also Latvia and Lithuania , the immense extent of emigration to Central and Western Europe is meanwhile threatening the existence of the economy, comparable to demographically strongly disadvantaged areas in the new federal states. Among the most important destination countries for emigrants from Thuringia are the German-speaking neighboring countries Switzerland and Austria , the extent of which is more comparable to intra-German migration to the other federal states, as well as the countries of Scandinavia and the classic English-speaking immigration countries of the western world.
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Regional developments
At the regional level, areas with growing and falling populations have developed since the turn of the millennium. The population is largely stable in the middle of the country between Eisenach in the west, Jena in the east, Ilmenau in the south and Erfurt in the north along the motorways 4 and 71 , where the strong economic corridors and almost all universities and research institutions are located. The population growth of the cities there is higher than the decline in the smaller municipalities, so that the total number is rising slightly. The areas to the north, east and south of it, on the other hand, are affected by shrinkage processes, which are caused by various structural weaknesses.
Northern Thuringia has always been an agrarian, weakly industrialized region, whose economic activity was largely limited to the solitary locations such as Heiligenstadt / Leinefelde , Nordhausen or Sömmerda / Kölleda, as well as the numerous locations of potash mining , which only emerged in the 20th century . While the latter was settled quickly after reunification, the individual locations were able to develop well, but the surrounding area retained its structural weakness with a lack of attractive jobs. In East Thuringia, a once heavily industrialized region, the economy collapsed after 1990, the dominant industries from lignite to bismuth to the textile industry disappeared completely, which has not been compensated for even today despite a fairly central location and good transport infrastructure. In the south of the country from the Hessian border to the A 9 , the structural problems are different. While there is a nationwide medium-sized economy with an attractive job offer, the strong distance from the city center in relation to large cities and regional centers has a negative effect, as does the lack of regional urban centers. In addition, there is a relatively detoured transport connection without efficient railway lines, combined with an already often low population density. With full employment, recruiting from outside is already one of the most pressing problems.
| Birth and migration balances for the last five years (2013 to 2017) at district level | ||||
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| circle | Migration balance | per 1000 inhabitants |
Birth balance | per 1000 inhabitants |
| Central Thuringia | ||||
| Erfurt , independent city | +10,360 | +48.6 | −879 | −4.1 |
| Weimar , independent city | +1,847 | +28.7 | −694 | −10.8 |
| District of Gotha | +3,490 | +25.8 | −3.293 | −24.3 |
| Sömmerda district | +604 | +8.6 | −1,639 | −23.4 |
| Ilm district | +2,004 | +18.4 | −2,755 | −25.3 |
| Weimarer Land district | +1,536 | +18.7 | −1,423 | −17.3 |
| Northern Thuringia | ||||
| Eichsfeld district | +204 | +2.0 | −874 | −8.7 |
| Nordhausen district | +1,197 | +14.1 | −2,466 | −29.1 |
| Unstrut-Hainich district | +1,316 | +12.7 | −2,800 | −27.1 |
| Kyffhäuserkreis | +400 | +5.3 | −3.194 | −42.1 |
| Southwest Thuringia | ||||
| Eisenach , independent city | +2.093 | +49.0 | −1,150 | −26.9 |
| Suhl , independent city | +496 | +14.1 | −1.291 | −36.7 |
| Wartburg district | −490 | −4.0 | −2,999 | −24.2 |
| Schmalkalden-Meiningen district | +539 | +4.4 | −3,825 | −31.1 |
| Hildburghausen district | +169 | +2.6 | −1,803 | −28.2 |
| Sonneberg district | +820 | +14.5 | −2,236 | −39.7 |
| East Thuringia | ||||
| Jena , independent city | +3,475 | +31.3 | +705 | +6.3 |
| Gera , independent city | +2,504 | +26.4 | −3.051 | −32.2 |
| District of Saalfeld-Rudolstadt | −91 | −0.8 | −4.005 | −37.3 |
| Saale-Holzland district | +123 | +1.5 | −1,464 | −17.6 |
| Saale-Orla district | −337 | −4.1 | −2,558 | −31.4 |
| District of Greiz | −620 | −6.2 | −3,797 | −38.2 |
| Altenburger Land district | −396 | −4.4 | −3,708 | −40.9 |
Population projections
The population projections in Thuringia continue to assume a declining total number of inhabitants . The 12th coordinated population projection of the Thuringian State Office for Statistics from 2009, which also represents the binding planning basis for the state administration, said a decrease to 2.12 million by 2015, to 2.03 to 2.04 million by 2020 and by 2025 to 1.93 to 1.95 million inhabitants. In 2014, it became apparent that this forecast is clearly too pessimistic, as migration has been developing more positively than expected for several years. Corrected for the results of the 2011 census (with the deletion of 40,000 non-existent inhabitants from the statistics), the 2009 forecast predicted 2.12 million inhabitants for 2013, or a decrease of 107,000 people compared to December 31, 2008, while the actual decrease to 2.16 million inhabitants was only 67,000 people. A significantly better balance of migration and a slightly higher birth rate contributed significantly to this. The population developed significantly better than forecast between 2008 and 2013, especially in Erfurt, Gera, Suhl, the Weimarer Land and the Kyffhäuserkreis, while at the other end of the scale only in Weimar and the Ilm-Kreis the forecasts were relatively accurate.
Factors
The number of deaths can be predicted most reliably, as the people affected have little spatial mobility and move very few people at an advanced age . In addition, this is not an individual decision that can be influenced (unlike, for example, the birth behavior or moving). The number of births can also be forecast with some precision over a certain period of time, since the potential mothers can also already be recorded. However, migration behavior still plays a role here, as young women are comparatively mobile. In addition, the fertility rate fluctuates , albeit within a very narrow corridor (for example between 1.2 and 1.6 children per woman), which at least for shorter periods of time does not have a major impact on the total population. On the other hand, overall migration behavior is very difficult to predict, as it depends on numerous internal and external factors. This includes the economic development on site and elsewhere as well as changing lifestyles that prefer a certain type of living (e.g. in the big city or in the countryside) or legal framework conditions that regulate immigration from abroad in particular. Today's migratory activity has strong repercussions on tomorrow's birth behavior, as immigrating women cause additional births, while women who migrate further reduce the number of births, which is why the uncertainty of population forecasts increases the further into the future they are. In particular, immigration from abroad is practically impossible to predict, as is small-scale migration behavior, for example at the level of a city or a municipality. For this reason, the forecast uncertainty not only increases the further into the future one looks, but also the smaller the area under consideration is.
Local developments
As has been the case since the late 1990s, the demographic situation of the individual regions of Thuringia will continue to differentiate in the future. While the two large cities have been growing again since 1999 ( Jena ) and 2003 ( Erfurt ), most medium-sized and some small towns are also stabilizing and are only showing slight population declines. In rural areas and some “problem cities ” such as Suhl or Greiz , however, the downward trend continues unchecked, so that further significant population losses are to be expected for large parts of the area in Thuringia, especially since immigration from abroad is once again a decisive support for stabilizing population development mainly focused on the cities. For most of the villages this means a population decrease of 10 to 20% per decade (corresponds to a good third in 25 years), in particularly affected areas such as the slate mountains even more than 20% in ten years. The only exceptions to this are places near the city, for example around Erfurt, Weimar and Jena, where the birth deficit is at least partially offset by immigration and cushions the decline.
This poses sustainability problems for the infrastructure in rural areas (e.g. schools, public transport, sewage, etc.), so that the cost of living there increases as the supply deteriorates, which in turn creates attractiveness problems and leads to further migration. The vacancy rate is also increasing, which is already affecting the image of some villages and generating costs for securing or demolition. One consequence of these processes is the islanding of the spatial structure with stable cities between which increasingly empty rural areas lie. Last but not least, real estate prices in these areas fall to a minimum, which leads to major economic damage for private households as homeowners in the region (if, for example, the average real estate value in a village with 200 houses falls by 50,000 euros each, the damage lies in this alone Village at 10 million euros, with a district with 100 such villages correspondingly at 1 billion euros). These processes are already underway and are largely beyond the scope of administrative intervention. Conversely, the housing markets are tightening again in some cities, above all in Jena, where there is a greater shortage of both living space and suitable building space, and increasingly also in Erfurt, Weimar, Nordhausen and Ilmenau, where the supply of housing on the market is also falling and rental prices are rising.
In Thuringia, the contrast between the economic active area in the center of the state along the A 4 and A 71 on the one hand and the peripheral areas such as northern Thuringia, the Altenburger Land or the slate mountains could worsen even further, making it even more difficult to achieve equivalent living conditions throughout the state.
See also
Individual evidence
- ↑ TLS: total hikes since 1985
- ↑ TLS: Those born and died from 1965
- ^ Source for Prussian areas: Handbuch der Provinz Sachsen, Magdeburg 1843 ; for the Thuringian states: Johann Friedrich Kratzsch : Lexicon of all localities of the German federal states, Naumburg, 1843.
- ^ Michael Rademacher: German administrative history from the unification of the empire in 1871 to the reunification in 1990. laender.html. (Online material for the dissertation, Osnabrück 2006).
- ^ Thuringian State Office for Statistics (TLS): Population and inhabitants per km² in Thuringia . (html), years 1950 - 2016, from 1960 year by year, accessed on August 11, 2019.
- ^ Thuringian State Office for Statistics (TLS): Selected characteristics of the population - annual data in Thuringia . (html), accessed on August 11, 2019.
- ↑ Thuringian State Office for Statistics: Selected characteristics of the population - monthly data in Thuringia , source in this form not publicly available, accessed on March 24, 2018.
- ↑ Federal Statistical Office, April 12, 2018: 10 foreign population on December 31, 2017 by nationality and country . Central Register of Foreigners (PDF; 607 pages) of April 12, 2018, p. 94ff., Data as of December 31, 2017. Online at destatis.de, accessed on September 13, 2018.
- ↑ Data according to the census database
- ^ Thuringian State Office for Statistics: Naturalized persons by gender in Thuringia . (html), 1991-2016, accessed March 24, 2018.
- ↑ a b census database
- ↑ Thuringian State Office for Statistics: Population by age, year of birth and gender by district in Thuringia , territorial status: December 31, 2011, table: Population by age groups, accessed on June 3, 2018.
- ↑ Thuringian State Office for Statistics: Born and died 1955, 1960 and from 1965 in Thuringia , table with data from 1955 to 2016 (corresponding to the last website access), data from 1965 available on an annual basis, accessed on June 10, 2018.
- ↑ Peter Arnold (Thuringian State Office for Statistics), May 2012: The " Summarized Birth Rate " of Thuringia in comparison (PDF; 5.3 MB; 10 pages) , monthly statistical bulletin, detailed TFR comparison of Thuringia with the regions including EU-25 , EU-27, NUTS 1, NUTS 2; Consideration of selected TFR data for the years 1952/1980 - 2010, accessed on March 25, 2018.
- ↑ Thuringian State Office for Statistics: Migration balance (total) between the independent cities and districts in Thuringia , table with data by city and year, specified data (when the website was accessed): from 1998 to 2016, accessed on June 10, 2018.
- ↑ Thuringian State Office for Statistics: Migration balance (total) of the districts compared to the other federal states and abroad , table with annual data from 1998 to 2016 (corresponding to the last website access), accessed on June 10, 2018.
- ↑ Thuringian State Office for Statistics: Migration balance (total) of the districts compared to the other federal states and abroad in Thuringia , table with annual data from 1998 to 2017 (corresponding to the last website access), accessed on September 16, 2018.
- ↑ a b Thuringian State Office for Statistics: Statistical Report: Migration and Population in Thuringia , yearly 1992 - 2016 (brochure, Excel / PDF), accessed on September 16, 2018.
- ↑ TLS , link broken on March 24, 2018.
literature
- Henriette Engelhardt: Introduction to population science and demography. Ergon-Verlag, Würzburg 2011, ISBN 978-3-89913-868-9 .