Demography of Germany
The demography of Germany considers the effect of natural and artificial change factors on the population in Germany . In the scientific discipline of demography , population composition and development are observed, described, statistics are also graphically processed and explanations for longer-term changes are sought. According to data from the population update of the Federal Statistical Office, 83.2 million people live in Germany as of December 2019.
The birth rate of the German population has been at a consistently low level since the 1970s; in 2015 the death surplus was 187,625 people. This contrasted with an immigration gain of 1,139,402 people in the same year, so that the population increased by 951,777 people. One of the current challenges, due to the low birth rate, is seen as the orientation towards a family-friendly , child and offspring-promoting society with large families (pronatalism). If very low birth rates continue, as in the past four decades, far-reaching social, economic and geopolitical problems are predicted for Germany.
The domestic and emigration movements vary greatly in the last decade. De facto, there is an overall level of parity with previous years (change below 0.1 percent, net migration ). According to data from the Central Register of Foreigners, more than 10 million people living here are exclusively foreign nationals (as of December 2016). Around 18.6 million people in Germany had a migration background in 2016 .
The number of unregistered people of other nationalities in Germany, who are usually referred to with the term illegal immigration , is not officially recorded. Therefore, it is very difficult to find serious numbers here. Most estimates and a comparison with other countries in Western Europe and North America suggest a number of 0.5% to 2% compared to the official population, i.e. between 415,000 and 1,660,000 people. The real number of foreign nationals who are not registered in Germany could be in this range.
Natural population development, factors
In the western German federal states, the number of births has been falling since the late 1960s (so-called pill kink ). In the GDR , the development was similar, with a time lag of about three years, although the birth rates in the east were higher from 1969 than in the west. Since reunification , however, there has been a drop in the birth rate in East Germany of up to 25% compared to the previous year.
The total fertility rate in Germany was in 2015 with 1.50 below the average of the European Union (1.58). A total of 737,575 children were born in Germany this year, 9 newborns per 1,000 inhabitants. The absolute number of births has already risen in previous years; in 2013 it was 682,069, in 2014 it was 714,927.
Women with a migration background give birth on average to more children in the course of their lives than women born in Germany. For women between the ages of 45 and 54 in 2016, the average number of children born was 1.6 children per woman. Women of the same age born in Germany had a slightly lower number of children (1.5 children per woman) and immigrants had a higher number of children (2.0). For women with a higher education, the differences were much smaller: women born in Germany gave birth to 1.4 children per woman in the course of their lives, and migrants 1.5. The differences are greater for women with a low level of education: those born in Germany had an average of 1.6 children and those who immigrated had 2.4 children per woman.
The Federal Statistical Office determined the parental religion for the last time in 2012 . Of the around 674,000 children born this year, around 101,000 - around 15% - had Roman Catholic parents, 75,000 had Protestant parents (around 11%). The father and mother of 50,000 children both belonged to an Islamic religious community.
However, it is both controversial to what extent a higher population growth in Germany would have positive economic effects . It is also controversial whether the current population development poses a threat to the social security systems or whether it is irrelevant in view of the current unemployment and whether an expansive wage policy would have to absorb negative effects. The former position is mainly represented by Herwig Birg , the latter by Gerd Bosbach .
The number of deaths is relatively constant between 800,000 and 900,000 per year, in 2015 it was 925,200. The overall high life expectancy in Germany is the result of inner peace , relative prosperity , the existence of a broad middle class and efficient medicine and health care .
The natural population development results from the difference between the number of births and deaths . In Germany (GDR and the old Federal Republic added) the number of deaths since 1972 has been higher than that of those born, the natural population development is therefore negative: in 2015 the “death surplus” was 187,625. From 2003 to 2010 immigration was no longer sufficient to compensate for this shrinkage in the natural development of the numbers. After that, this changed again, mainly due to the high immigration from Poland , Romania and Bulgaria , but also due to increased immigration from the southern European countries of Italy, Spain and Greece, which were badly affected by the euro crisis .
According to the Federal Statistical Office, the share of births from parents who are not married to each other in all live-born children has more than doubled in the past 25 years: it rose from 15% in 1990 to around 35% in 2015.
Total fertility rate from 1800 to 1899
|Total fertility rate in Germany||5.4||5.4||5.39||5.39||5.38||5.38||5.37||5.37||5.36||5.36||5.35|
|Total fertility rate in Germany||5.35||5.34||5.34||5.33||5.33||5.32||5.32||5.33||5.35||5.37|
|Total fertility rate in Germany||5.35||5.33||5.31||5.28||5.26||5.17||5.07||4.97||4.88||4.78|
|Total fertility rate in Germany||4.8||4.83||4.85||4.88||4.9||4.9||4.9||4.9||4.9||4.9|
|Total fertility rate in Germany||4.9||4.95||4.97||5||5.02||5.02||5.02||5.01||5.01||5.01|
|Total fertility rate in Germany||4.87||4.74||4.6||4.47||4.33||4.45||4.56||4.67||4.79||4.9|
|Total fertility rate in Germany||4.93||4.96||5||5.03||5.06||5.09||5.11||5.13||5.16||5.18|
|Total fertility rate in Germany||5.24||5.3||5.35||5.41||5.46||5.38||5.3||5.22||5.14||5.06|
|Total fertility rate in Germany||5.14||5.21||5.29||5.28||5.26||5.25||5.23||5.22||5.21||5.2|
|Total fertility rate in Germany||5.18||5.17||5.16||5.14||5.11||5.09||5.06||5.04||4.99|
Life expectancy from 1875 to 2015
|Life expectancy at birth in Germany||38.5||39.5||42.8||45.5||49.0||40.5||57.4||61.5||60.5|
|Period||Life expectancy in
|Period||Life expectancy in
Source: UN World Population Prospects
Demography since 1900
Demography since 1900.
Note: The number of deaths in the years 1939–1945 is incorrectly reported.
The number of deaths in each of these years is statistically approximately 755,000 greater.
(per 1,000 inhabitants)
(per 1,000 inh.)
Change in population (
|Summarized fertility rate||Summarized fertility rate BRD||Summarized fertility rate DDR|
|1900||54 326 000||1 944 139||1 199 382||744 757||35.8||22.1||13.7||4.93|
|1901||55 144 000||1,980,313||1 140 489||839 824||35.9||20.7||15.2||4.88|
|1902||56 017 000||1 971 735||1,088,492||883 243||35.2||19.4||15.8||4.82|
|1903||56 869 000||1 931 078||1 135 905||795 173||34.0||20.0||14.0||4.77|
|1904||57 695 000||1 972 847||1 128 183||844 664||34.2||19.6||14.6||4.68|
|1905||58 514 000||1 935 153||1 158 314||776 839||33.1||19.8||13.3||4.60|
|1906||59 343 000||1,970,477||1 078 202||892 275||33.2||18.2||15.0||4.51|
|1907||60 183 000||1 948 933||1,084,309||864 624||32.4||18.0||14.4||4.43|
|1908||61 023 000||1 964 052||1 100 490||863 562||32.2||18.0||14.2||4.34|
|1909||61 857 000||1 929 278||1 062 217||867 061||31.2||17.2||14.9||4.18|
|1910||62 698 000||1 876 778||1 016 665||860 113||29.9||16.2||13.7||4.01|
|1911||63 469 000||1,824,729||1,097,784||726 945||28.7||17.3||11.5||3.85|
|1912||64 236 000||1 823 636||1,000 749||822 887||28.4||15.6||12.8||3.68|
|1913||65 058 000||1,794,750||975 950||818 800||27.6||15.0||12.6||3.52|
|1914||65 860 000||1 775 596||1 246 310||529 286||27.0||18.9||8.0||3.27|
|1915||65 953 000||1,353,546||1 410 420||-56 874||20.5||21.4||-0.9||3.02|
|1916||65 795 000||1 005 484||1,258,054||-252 570||15.3||19.1||-3.8||2.76|
|1917||65 450 000||912 109||1 345 424||-433 315||13.9||20.6||-6.6||2.51|
|1918||64 800 000||926 813||1 606 475||-679 662||14.3||24.8||-10.5||2.26|
|1919||62 897 000||1 260 500||978 380||282 120||20.0||15.6||4.5||2.33|
|1920||61 794 000||1,599,287||932 929||666 358||25.9||15.1||10.8||2.40|
|1921||62 473 000||1 581 130||869 555||711 575||25.3||13.9||11.4||2.48|
|1922||61 890 000||1 424 804||890 181||534 623||23.0||14.4||8.6||2.55|
|1923||62 250 000||1,318,489||866 754||451 735||21.2||13.9||7.2||2.62|
|1924||62 740 000||1,290,763||766 957||523 806||20.6||12.2||8.4||2.42|
|1925||63 110 000||1 311 259||753 017||558 242||20.8||11.9||8.8||2.21|
|1926||63 510 000||1,245,471||742 955||502 516||19.6||11.7||7.9||2.10|
|1927||63 940 000||1 178 892||765 331||413 561||18.4||12.0||6.5||1.98|
|1928||64 470 000||1 199 998||747 444||452 554||18.6||11.6||7.0||1.99|
|1929||64 670 000||1 164 062||814 545||349 517||18.0||12.6||5.4||1.93|
|1930||65 130 000||1 144 151||718 807||425 344||17.6||11.0||6.5||1.88|
|1931||65 510 000||1,047,775||734 165||313 610||16.0||11.2||4.8||1.71|
|1932||65 716 000||993 126||707 642||285 484||15.1||10.8||4.3||1.62|
|1933||66 027 000||971 174||737 877||233 297||14.7||11.2||3.5||1.58|
|1934||66 409 000||1 198 350||725,000||473,000||18.0||10.9||7.1||1.93|
|1935||66 871 000||1,263,976||792 018||471 958||18.9||11.8||7.1||2.03|
|1936||67 349 000||1,278,583||795 793||482 790||19.0||11.8||7.2||2.07|
|1937||67 831 000||1,277,046||794 367||482 679||18.8||11.7||7.1||2.09|
|1938||68 424 000||1 348 534||799 220||549 314||19.7||11.7||8.0||2.25|
|1939||69 314 000||1 413 230||854 348||558 882||20.4||12.3||8.1||2.39|
|1940||69 838 000||1 402 258||885 591||516 667||20.1||12.7||7.4||2.40|
|1941||70 244 000||1 308 232||844 435||463 797||18.6||12.0||6.6||2.25|
|1942||70 834 000||1 055 915||847 861||208 054||14.9||12.0||2.9||1.83|
|1943||70 411 000||1 124 718||853 246||271 472||16.0||12.1||3.9||2.00|
|1945||66,000,000||1,060,000||1 210 000||-150,000||16.1||18.3||-2.3||1.53|
|1946||64 260 000||921 998||1 001 331||-79 333||14.3||15.6||-1.2||1.65|
|1947||65 842 000||1,028,421||932 628||95 793||15.6||14.2||1.5||1.92||2.01||1.75|
|1948||67 365 000||1 049 074||804 839||244 235||15.6||11.9||3.6||1.96||2.07||1.76|
|1949||68 080 000||1 106 803||770 852||335 951||16.3||11.3||4.9||2.11||2.14||2.03|
|1950||68 374 000||1 116 835||748 329||368 506||16.3||10.9||5.4||2.14||2.10||2.35|
|1951||68 882 000||1 106 608||752 697||353 911||16.1||10.9||5.1||2.16||2.06||2.46|
|1952||69 171 000||1 105 080||767 637||337 443||16.0||11.1||4.9||2.16||2.08||2.42|
|1953||69 564 000||1 095 096||790 654||304 442||15.7||11.4||4.4||2.15||2.07||2.40|
|1954||69 934 000||1 110 028||775 291||334 737||15.9||11.1||4.8||2.18||2.12||2.38|
|1955||70 307 000||1 113 128||795 938||317 190||15.8||11.3||4.5||2.18||2.11||2.38|
|1956||70 711 000||1 137 169||812 111||325 058||16.1||11.5||4.6||2.22||2.19||2.30|
|1957||71 166 000||1 165 555||840 195||325 360||16.4||11.8||4.6||2.28||2.28||2.24|
|1958||71 637 000||1 175 870||818 418||357 452||16.4||11.4||5.0||2.29||2.29||2.22|
|1959||72 180 000||1 243 922||835 402||408 520||17.2||11.6||5.7||2.36||2.34||2.37|
|1960||72 664 000||1,261,614||876 721||384 893||17.4||12.1||5.3||2.37||2.37||2.35|
|1961||73 352 000||1 313 505||850 300||463 205||17.9||11.6||6.3||2.45||2.47||2.42|
|1962||74 049 000||1 316 534||878 814||437 720||17.8||11.9||5.9||2.44||2.45||2.42|
|1963||75 019 000||1 355 595||895 070||460 525||18.1||11.9||6.1||2.51||2.52||2.47|
|1964||75 273 000||1,357,304||870 319||486 985||18.0||11.6||6.5||2.54||2.55||2.48|
|1965||76 061 000||1,325,386||907 882||417 504||17.4||11.9||5.5||2.50||2.51||2.48|
|1966||76 734 000||1,318,303||911 984||406 319||17.2||11.9||5.3||2.51||2.54||2.43|
|1967||76 954 000||1,272,276||914 417||357 859||16.5||11.9||4.7||2.48||2.54||2.34|
|1968||77 249 000||1 214 968||976 521||238 447||15.7||12.6||3.1||2.38||2.39||2.30|
|1969||77 918 000||1 142 368||988 092||154 276||14.7||12.7||2.0||2.21||2.20||2.24|
|1970||77 772 000||1,047,737||975 664||72 073||13.5||12.5||0.9||2.03||1.99||2.19|
|1971||78 355 000||1 013 396||965 623||47 773||12.9||12.3||0.6||1.96||1.92||2.13|
|1972||78 717 000||901 657||965 689||-64 032||11.5||12.3||-0.8||1.73||1.72||1.79|
|1973||78 951 000||815 969||963 034||-147 065||10.3||12.2||-1.9||1.56||1.54||1.58|
|1974||78 966 000||805 500||956 573||-151 073||10.2||12.1||-1.9||1.53||1.51||1.54|
|1975||78 862 000||782 310||989 649||-207 339||9.9||12.5||-2.6||1.48||1.45||1.54|
|1976||78 299 000||798 334||966 873||-168 539||10.2||12.3||-2.2||1.51||1.46||1.64|
|1977||78 161 000||805 496||931 155||-125 659||10.3||11.9||-1.6||1.51||1.40||1.85|
|1978||78 066 000||808 619||955 550||-146 931||10.4||12.2||-1.9||1.50||1.38||1.90|
|1979||78 082 000||817 217||944 474||-127 257||10.5||12.1||-1.6||1.50||1.39||1.90|
|1980||78 295 000||865 789||952 371||-86 582||11.1||12.2||-1.1||1.56||1.44||1.94|
|1981||78 399 000||862 100||954 436||-92 336||11.0||12.2||-1.2||1.53||1.43||1.85|
|1982||78 293 000||861 275||943 832||-82 557||11.0||12.1||-1.1||1.51||1.41||1.86|
|1983||78 082 000||827 933||941 032||-113 099||10.6||12.1||-1.4||1.43||1.33||1.79|
|1984||77 797 000||812 292||917 299||-105 007||10.4||11.8||-1.3||1.39||1.29||1.74|
|1985||77 619 000||813 803||929 649||-115 846||10.5||12.0||-1.5||1.37||1.28||1.73|
|1986||77 635 000||848 231||925 411||-77 180||10.9||11.9||-1.0||1.41||1.34||1.70|
|1987||77 718 000||867 969||901 291||-33 322||11.2||11.6||-0.4||1.43||1.37||1.74|
|1988||78 116 000||892 993||900 627||-7 634||11.4||11.5||-0.1||1.46||1.41||1.67|
|1989||78 677 000||880 459||903 441||-22 103||11.2||11.5||-0.3||1.42||1.39||1.56|
|1990||79 365 000||905 675||914 361||-8 686||11.4||11.5||-0.1||1.454||1,450||1.518|
|1991||79 984 000||830 019||911 245||-81 226||10.4||11.4||-1.0||1,332||1.422||0.977|
|1992||80 570 000||809 114||885 443||-76 329||10.0||11.0||-0.9||1.292||1.402||0.830|
|1993||81 187 000||798 447||897 270||-98 823||9.8||11.1||-1.2||1.278||1.393||0.775|
|1994||81 422 000||769 603||884 659||-115 056||9.5||10.9||-1.4||1.243||1.347||0.772|
|1995||81 661 000||765 221||884 588||-119 367||9.4||10.8||-1.5||1.249||1,339||0.838|
|1996||81 896 000||796 013||882 843||-86 830||9.7||10.8||-1.1||1,316||1.396||0.948|
|1997||82 061 000||812 173||860 389||-48 216||9.9||10.5||-0.6||1.369||1.441||1.039|
|1998||82 024 000||785 034||852 382||-67 348||9.6||10.4||-0.8||1.355||1.413||1.087|
|1999||82 101 000||770 744||846 330||-75 586||9.4||10.3||-0.9||1.361||1.406||1.148|
|2000||82 213 000||766 999||838 797||-71 798||9.3||10.2||-0.9||1.378||1.413||1,214|
|2001||82 350 000||734 475||828 541||-94 066||8.9||10.1||-1.1||1,349||1,382||1,231|
|2002||82 489 000||719 250||841 673||-122 423||8.7||10.2||-1.5||1.341||1.371||1,238|
|2003||82 541 000||706 721||853 946||-147 225||8.6||10.3||-1.8||1,340||1.364||1.264|
|2004||82 517 000||705 622||818 271||-112 649||8.6||9.9||-1.4||1.355||1.372||1.307|
|2005||82 470 000||685 795||830 227||-144 432||8.3||10.1||-1.8||1,340||1.355||1.295|
|2006||82 377 000||672 724||821 627||-148 903||8.2||10.0||-1.8||1.331||1.341||1.303|
|2007||82 267 000||684 862||827 155||-142 293||8.3||10.1||-1.7||1,370||1.375||1.366|
|2008||82 110 000||682 514||844 439||-161 925||8.3||10.3||-2.1||1.376||1.374||1.404|
|2009||81 901 000||665 126||854 544||-189 418||8.1||10.4||-2.3||1.358||1.353||1.404|
|2010||81 751 000||677 947||858 768||-180 821||8.3||10.5||-2.2||1.393||1.385||1.459|
|2011||80 233 100||662 685||852 328||-189 643||8.2||10.6||-2.4||1,390||1.38||1.46|
|2012||80 399 000||673 544||869 582||-196 038||8.4||10.8||-2.4||1.406||1.40||1.48|
|2013||80 767 000||682 069||893 825||-211 756||8.5||11.1||-2.6||1.419||1.41||1.49|
|2014||81 198 000||714 966||868 373||-153 407||8.8||10.7||-1.9||1.47||1.47||1.54|
|2015||82 175 700||737 575||925 200||-187 625||9.0||11.3||-2.2||1.50||1.50||1.56|
|2016||82 521 700||792 131||910 902||-118 771||9.6||11.0||-1.4||1.59||1.60||1.64|
|2017||82 740 900||785 234||932 538||-147 304||9.5||11.3||-1.8||1.57||1.58||1.61|
|2018||83 019 200||787 523||954 874||-167 351||9.5||11.5||-2.0||1.57||1.58||1.60|
|2019||83 166 700||778 129||939 536||-161 407||9.4||11.3||-1.9||1.55|
Live births by marital status of parents in 2015
|Regional breakdown||Live born||First children||Proportion of children from
|All in all||First children|
|Germany||737 575||257 903||361 154||158 400||35.0||43.9|
|former federal Territory
(without Berlin-West )
|595 320||175 652||290 814||110 844||29.5||38.1|
(excluding East Berlin)
|104 225||63 255||50 676||36 160||60.7||71.4|
|Baden-Württemberg||100 269||24 767||49 211||16 505||24.7||33.5|
|Bavaria||118 228||32 508||59 135||21 513||27.5||36.4|
|Berlin||38 030||18 996||19 664||11 396||50.0||58.0|
|Brandenburg||19 112||11 672||9 443||6 789||61.1||71.9|
|Bremen||6 509||2,696||3 152||1 538||41.4||48.8|
|Hamburg||19 768||7 572||10 323||4,762||38.3||46.1|
|Hesse||56 889||16 216||28 142||10 313||28.5||36.6|
|Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania||13 298||8 276||6 355||4 592||62.2||72.3|
|Lower Saxony||67 183||21 882||32 034||13 538||32.6||42.3|
|North Rhine-Westphalia||160 468||48 404||76 682||29 134||30.2||38.0|
|Rhineland-Palatinate||34 946||10 026||16 808||6 323||28.7||37.6|
|Saarland||7 511||2,368||3 818||1 519||31.5||39.8|
|Saxony||36 466||21 653||17 810||12 580||59.4||70.6|
|Saxony-Anhalt||17 415||10 972||8 401||6 122||63.0||72.9|
|Schleswig-Holstein||23 549||9 213||11 509||5 699||39.1||49.5|
|Thuringia||17 934||10 682||8 667||6 077||59.6||70.1|
Population development through migration
During the 1990s, the population grew due to immigration. While emigration from Germany remained relatively stable at 600,000 to 800,000 people, immigration fell after 1992 (1,500,000) and reached its lowest level in 2006 with 662,000 people. Between 2003 and 2010, the lower immigration could no longer compensate for the surplus of deaths that there was a decline in population.
The largest proportion of emigrants in 2015 were Germans (138,273), Romanians (129,059), Poles (127,789) and Bulgarians (46,754). The number of emigrants with German citizenship fluctuated between 133,000 and 175,000 annually over the past ten years.
In 2015, in the wake of a sharp rise in immigration, the highest ever recorded migration gain was achieved: a total of around 2,136,954 people immigrated to Germany with around 997,552 emigrants at the same time. This results in a positive net migration of 1,139,402 people.
For the period between 2012 and 2017, the private economic research institute Kiel Economics is forecasting 2.2 million immigrants for Germany. These people should primarily include people from southern and eastern Europe who immigrate to the Federal Republic mainly for economic reasons - for example the situation on the domestic labor market.
In 2015, Germany had the highest positive net migration (highest net immigration) with the following countries :
- Syria (+298.483)
- Romania (+92,346)
- Afghanistan (+79,572)
- Poland (+63.045)
- Iraq (+59,705)
- Albania (+46.829)
- Croatia (+39.659)
- Bulgaria (+39,520)
- Italy (+23,558)
- Kosovo (+22,223)
In 2015, emigration in the negative range worth mentioning was only among German citizens (−17,560).
People with a migration background
In 2013, a total of 15.913 million people with a migration background in the narrower sense lived in Germany. This corresponds to 19.7% of the population. In the 2013 microcensus, all foreigners and all Germans who immigrated to what is now the Federal Republic of Germany after 1955 or who have at least one parent who immigrated after 1955 were counted as persons with a migration background. Among the 15 largest cities, Frankfurt am Main (45%), Nuremberg (37.7%), Stuttgart (37.1%), Munich (36%) and Düsseldorf (35.2%) have the highest proportion of people with a migration background (Stand 2013).
Almost half of the immigrants or their descendants are now German citizens; Of these, a not inconsiderable proportion also has the nationality of their country of origin.
Persons without German citizenship
Data according to the Federal Statistical Office.
|State / Region||continent||in Germany 2001||in Germany 2008||in Germany 2011||in Germany 2014||in Germany 2016||in Germany 2017||in Germany 2018|
|Arabian Peninsula 1||Asia||3,953||5,649||8,364||14,040||20,420|
|Bosnia and Herzegovina||Europe||159,042||156,804||153,470||163,519||172,560||180,950||190.495|
|People's Republic of China||Asia||63.111||78,960||86,435||110.284||129,150||136,460||143.135|
|Central America and the Caribbean||North America||26,139||30,028||31,849||36,369||38.195||39,435||41,420|
|rest of North Africa 2||Africa||3,033||3,730||4,880||12,586||14,265||14,805||14,785|
|rest of East and Central Asia 3||Asia||26,944||30,375||30,680||32,614||37,740||39,570||41,225|
|Russia||Europe / Asia||136.080||188.253||195.310||221.413||245.380||249.205||254,325|
|Serbia , Montenegro and Kosovo||Europe||656.685||532,322||404.690||456.107||454.245||455.450||471,660|
|South America||South America||66,522||72,843||76,233||84.710||90,620||96 750||104,385|
|rest of South and Southeast Asia 4||Asia||15,914||15,950||17,088||24.191||30,765||31,980||33,670|
|Turkey||Asia / Europe||1,947,938||1,688,370||1,607,161||1,527,118||1,492,580||1,483,515||1,476,410|
|United States||North America||113,528||100.002||101,643||108,845||114.145||117,730||119,645|
- 1 Yemen, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates
- 2 Western Sahara and Libya
- 3 East Asia: Mongolia, North Korea and Taiwan; Central Asia: Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan
- 4 excluding India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam.
Some immigrant groups are distributed very differently from region to region. The approximately 1.5 million Turkish citizens live almost exclusively in the old federal states and Berlin, but are strongly represented here almost everywhere. The second largest group, consisting of almost 800,000 Poles, also lives mainly in the old federal states and in Berlin. The third largest foreign group comes from Syria with around 638,000 people. The almost 600,000 Italians made up the fourth largest group of foreign citizens in Germany in 2016 and the oldest group among the so-called guest workers , which is why they mainly lived in the classic industrial regions of the 1960s from Düsseldorf and Wolfsburg in the north to Frankfurt, the Saarland, to Stuttgart and in the Freiburg-Basel area in the south is represented. The 90,000 or so Vietnamese in Germany immigrated as contract workers, especially during the GDR era , so that they still represent one of the larger groups of foreigners in the new federal states, while in the whole of Germany they are not among the 20 most common foreign citizenships. The 150,000 Dutch are in 18th place. They live primarily in the districts on the border with the Netherlands, where they sometimes make up the largest group of foreigners and where cross-border living has a long tradition. A total of 192,000 Hungarians live in Germany (14th place), and more of them have settled in southeast Bavaria along the Austrian border.
In 2000, when the new Citizenship Act came into force, 186,700 people were naturalized, and since then the number of naturalizations has tended to decrease. On average, 143,000 people received German citizenship up to 2007 . In 2016, 107,200 foreigners were naturalized on application, most of them were former citizens of Turkey and other EU or European countries.
Source: The CIA World Factbook , data status 2017.
- Summarized fertility rate
- 1.45 children per woman (2017), 213 out of 226 in a global country comparison.
- 1.43 children per woman (2014)
- 1.42 children per woman (2013)
- 1.38 children per woman (2008)
- Average annual population growth
- -0.16% (estimated)
- 208th place in a global comparison of countries
- Life expectancy
- total: 80.8 years
- of which male: 78.5 years
- thereof female: 83.3 years
- Place in country comparison: 34
- Births (per 1000 people in the population)
- 213rd place in a global comparison of countries
- Deaths (per 1000 people in the population)
- Child mortality (deaths per 1000 live births)
- total: 3.4
- of which male: 3.7
- of which female: 3.1
- Place in country comparison: 205
Within the Federal Republic of Germany, there are shifts in the population structure, with the population development of the individual regions differing greatly from one another. While the new federal states were characterized by strong emigration in the first 15 years after reunification, the old federal states recorded an increase in population during this period, and some federal states even recorded a strong increase in the number of inhabitants. In relation to the year of German unification 1990, the East German federal states including Berlin lost 8.9% of their population by December 31, 2003. The decline was strongest in the state of Saxony-Anhalt (−14.9%), while Brandenburg was able to partially compensate for the decline due to immigration into the vicinity of Berlin (−2.5%). The population of the ten western German federal states has grown by 8.4% since 1990, the increase was strongest in Baden-Württemberg (+ 11.2%), only two western German federal states recorded a decrease in population ( Bremen with −1.2% and the Saarland with −0.4%).
The strong east-west contrast in population growth weakened in the second half of the 2000s. The population is now falling in almost all federal states. In 2009, all federal states except Berlin and Hamburg lost their inhabitants. This development also underscores a trend that is superimposed on the east-west migration: the growth of urban regions versus a shrinking and aging population in rural areas. These migratory movements are noticeable throughout Germany. In addition to Munich , Hamburg, Düsseldorf , Cologne and Frankfurt am Main , urban agglomerations are also growing in the new federal states such as Berlin, Leipzig and Dresden , while rural areas in the old federal states are shrinking as well as those in the new federal states. However, the dynamics of this development are still different, although gradual adjustment is conceivable. The population remains constant in those federal states in which the shrinking rural areas can be offset by growth in urban centers, such as in Bavaria (Munich, Nuremberg ), Baden-Württemberg ( Stuttgart , Freiburg im Breisgau , Karlsruhe ) or Hesse (Frankfurt am Main) is the case. If there are no large urban centers (such as in Rhineland-Palatinate ) or if these are also shrinking (such as the Ruhr area in North Rhine-Westphalia or Saarland ), the population is falling to a greater extent.
Specifically based on the period between the end of 2007 and the end of 2009, the population continued to increase in almost all cities with more than 200,000 inhabitants. Exceptions to this are some cities in the Ruhr area and on the Lower Rhine , which due to the large urban density there do not take on a higher central location function for their surrounding area, Lübeck and Bielefeld as well as Halle and Chemnitz , where the decline in the number of inhabitants has slowed significantly compared to the time after reunification . Greater areas with increased population growth were the regions of Berlin, Hamburg, Frankfurt and Munich, while the growth in the other cities was mostly limited to the core city (for example in Leipzig). The only rural region with population growth was the Oldenburger Land , which has a relatively young and fertile population. The other rural regions lost up to 3.5% of their population within two years; the interior of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania , Prignitz and Lusatia as well as large parts of Saxony-Anhalt , the Thuringian Slate Mountains and the Ore Mountains are particularly affected . In the old federal states, the population shrank, especially in the Weser Uplands and Harz , in northern Hesse , in the Westerwald and in the Sauerland , in Upper Franconia , in the Eifel and in the Hunsrück as well as in the Saarland and in the western Palatinate .
If one only looks at the population development at the federal state level, the population has recently increased again in all federal states: In 2015, compared to 2014, the largest increases were observed in Baden-Württemberg and Bremen (+1.5%), with the lowest increases it in Saxony-Anhalt (+ 0.4%).
Population development by federal states
|country||Resident May 9, 2011||Residents Dec. 31, 2015||Changes in %|
|All in all||80.219.695||82.175.684||2.44|
By circles, the following picture emerges for the period between December 31, 2007 and December 31, 2009:
|rank||West district||Changes in %|
|1||City of Frankfurt am Main||+ 1.96%|
|2||City of Kaiserslautern 1||+ 1.54%|
|3||District of Tübingen 2||+ 1.52%|
|4th||City of Munich||+ 1.44%|
|4th||City of Pirmasens||- 2.55%|
|3||District of Osterode am Harz||- 2.55%|
|2||Birkenfeld district||- 2.62%|
|1||Holzminden district||- 2.64%|
|rank||East district||Changes in %|
|1||City of Potsdam||+ 2.50%|
|2||City of Dresden||+ 1.88%|
|3||City of Jena||+ 1.65%|
|4th||City of Leipzig||+ 1.64%|
|4th||Elbe-Elster district||- 3.35%|
|3||Demmin district||- 3.42%|
|2||Mansfeld-Südharz district||- 3.60%|
|1||City of Suhl||- 3.63%|
- 1) The city of Kaiserslautern introduced a second residence tax on May 1, 2009 , which caused the population, which has been declining since 1995, to skyrocket in 2009.
- 2) The city of Tübingen also introduced a second residence tax in 2009, which caused the otherwise constant number of inhabitants in the district to jump once again.
Internal migration, intra-regional migration
For the changes in population composition different sequences of can internal migration or intraregional migration of trigger be the long term more later consequences entails. The job search in the years after the accession of the five new federal states was probably the most serious trigger for internal migration since the post-war decade.
Rural exodus describes the process by which many people move from a rural area to a city or metropolitan area in a short period of time. The rural exodus took place for the first time in history at the beginning of industrialization . It began in England and Ireland , when many people moved from the countryside to the big cities of Central England, to London or Dublin . In Germany, rural exodus has taken place since around 1820. Many people moved from the villages to the cities. There were areas of low rural exodus that they could compensate for with high birth rates (e.g. Bavaria, Baden, Hesse, Thuringia) and there were areas of large rural exodus where there was a decline in population (e.g. Hohenlohe, Middle Franconia, Mecklenburg, Western Pomerania, East Prussia) . The process of rural exodus subsided after the Second World War. But since 1990 there has been an increase in rural exodus in eastern Germany. Many people move from the villages of Brandenburg to Berlin or from the Thuringian villages to Erfurt or Jena .
Urban exodus is the opposite of rural exodus. This spatial migration phenomenon occurred in (West) Germany during the 1960s and 1970s, when many people built their own homes outside of the big cities with the money from the economic miracle (see suburbanization ). However, this process only takes place in the vicinity of larger cities, so the commuting time to work does not exceed 60 minutes. In Germany there are many examples of urban exodus; Munich - Germering , Frankfurt - Oberursel , Cologne - Hürth , Hamburg - Pinneberg - Elmshorn etc. showed corresponding population dynamics . However, this movement has recently gone “out of fashion” as rising energy and fuel prices make living in the suburbs expensive. Large cities also try to counter family emigration with instruments of local family policy . There was no urban exodus in the GDR in the 1960s and 1970s. For example, Nesse-Apfelstädt with 6101 inhabitants (as of December 31, 2011) is the largest suburb of Erfurt , while the equally large Kassel has Baunatal as the largest suburb with almost 30,000 inhabitants.
While the age structure in Germany at the beginning of the 20th century was largely in the form of a classic age pyramid , this has changed, as in other industrialized countries, in the last few decades to the effect that the most populous age groups are found at an ever higher age (one speaks here also from “Urnenform” - see Fig. Forecast 2050). The reasons for this are the lower birth rate and better health care, which results in a higher life expectancy . While in 1950, for example, we can see a very populous age group among ten year olds, this maximum “migrated” up to the age of 36 year olds by 2000; by 2050, the maximum can then be expected among 60-year-olds. The old-age quotient - that is the ratio of people of retirement age (currently people from 67 years of age) to 100 people of working age (currently 20 to 64 years of age) - was approx. 32 in 2005; in 2030 it will be approx 51 are, in 2050 56 and 63 respectively. The immigration of foreigners weakens this development somewhat, since the migrants are often young people and their higher birth rate plays a role. However, earlier migratory movements have largely neutralized each other. In 2015, the average age of Germans was 44.2 years.
|Age structure of the population (Germany)|
Development of the total population
The field preacher Johann Peter Süßmilch is considered to be the founder of historical demography in Germany .
In 1834 the first joint census was carried out in all German states, with which a relatively exact number of inhabitants was determined for the first time: About 23.5 million people lived in the German states. Further counts followed at regular intervals. The list of censuses in Germany contains data on German population development for the years 1834–2011.
Since 1949, the two German states and Saarland, which joined in 1957, had their common territorial layout, as it still exists in today's Germany. For the first time in German history, there were no longer any large national minorities in the state like the French or Poles in the past . On the other hand, Germany began to become a destination for immigrants from Europe and Asia, which is why a considerable proportion of the population no longer has ancestors exclusively from Germany. As a result of immigration, the total population increased from 1972 to 2002, although the birth balance was already negative at this time . In the period between 2002 and 2011, the number of inhabitants decreased because the migration balance was partly negative (e.g. in 2009) and did not compensate for the birth deficit that had existed for decades. Germany's population has been increasing again since 2011.
The results from 2011 are based on the 2011 census. The corrections to the population figures explain the jump between 2010 and 2011.
Source: Federal Statistical Office
Model character of the forecast
The long-term, coordinated population projections, which have been continuously updated over the past decades, serve as models. They model possible population developments according to various numbers and models. Accordingly, there are u. a. each a lower and an upper variant. In the scientific sense, they are not forecasts , but are based on the current age structure and mathematically implement the assumptions precisely described there. However, major catastrophes such as wars or epidemics, which would have a massive impact on the population, are understandably not the subject of such models.
The results of these projections, coordinated between the state offices and the Federal Statistical Office, are uncertain and vary widely. The Federal Statistical Office, for example, calculated in its 7th forecast for the year 2030 a population of 69.9 million inhabitants. Just two years later in the 8th forecast, the value was 3.8 to 11.2 million higher, depending on the variant. In its 10th forecast, 9 variants were calculated and published, with the expected population for the year 2050 being 14.3 million people.
Population decline by 2060
For Germany, a population decline by 2050 or 2060 is calculated in all coordinated population projections by the Federal Statistical Office . The latest forecast from 2017 by the German government shows how fragile all projections are. In the demographic report, she writes: From a population science perspective, it is still open whether Germany's population will decline by 2060.
Variants of the model
One of the model assumptions of the 13th coordinated population projection of the Federal Statistical Office shows that the population will decrease to 79.0 million people (39.6 million men, 39.4 million women) by the year 2050. This is an "average" . Other models calculate only around 60 million people for 2050, others around 86 million people. The population decline partly corresponds to a changed age structure, but also to a changed population composition. The effects of the currently high migration rate are taken into account in the calculation based on 2015.
Assumptions of the model
The model calculation by the Federal Statistical Office assumes that there will be fewer and fewer children and even more older people. Projecting the data from the last few years as a trend into the future results in an extrapolated value of 500,000 in 2050 after the birth rate of around 685,000 in 2005. Approximately twice as many 60-year-olds as newborns are calculated, in 2005 there were almost as many newborns as 60-year-olds. The number of school-age children would continue to decrease accordingly, as would that of trainees. According to the model, the number of people over 80 would almost triple from four to ten million in 2050. The population in the working age would decrease depending on the extent of immigration in 2050 by 22 or 29 percent.
The population situation has changed particularly significantly in East Germany , where, since reunification , there has been both strong emigration and a particularly low birth rate as a result of economic change and the resulting high unemployment . The increasing emigration of German workers abroad has also recently played a role. The actual number of German emigrants in 2005 is estimated at 250,000.
Variants of the 11th forecast
Variants of the 11th coordinated population projection of the Federal Statistical Office:
- Variant 1-W1: “medium” population, lower limit: birth rate almost constant at 1.4 children per woman, basic assumption about life expectancy, annual net migration of 100,000 people per year
- Variant 1-W2: “medium” population, upper limit: birth rate almost constant at 1.4 children per woman, basic assumption about life expectancy, annual net migration of 200,000 people per year
The basic assumption about life expectancy assumes a life expectancy of newborn boys in 2050 of 83.5 years, of newborn girls of 88.0 years.
Revision of the forecast 2011
With the 2011 census, the population changed considerably: According to the statistical offices of the federal and state governments, the real population on May 9, 2011 was 80.2 million people (2011 census). The publication of the changed population figure in 2013 also had an impact on the population projection.
Results of the 12th forecast
Population of Germany by 2060 - 12th coordinated population projection - Basis: December 31, 2008:
|December 31, 2008||82,002,000||82,002,000|
|December 31, 2010||81,545,000||81,545,000|
|December 31, 2015||80,772,000||80,875,000|
|December 31, 2020||79,914,000||80,437,000|
|December 31, 2025||78,790,000||79,870,000|
|December 31, 2030||77,350,000||79,025,000|
|December 31, 2035||75,686,000||77,981,000|
|December 31, 2040||73,829,000||76,757,000|
|December 31, 2045||71,729,000||75,291,000|
|December 31, 2050||69,412,000||73,608,000|
|December 31, 2055||66,994,000||71,827,000|
|December 31, 2060||64,651,000||70,120,000|
Source: Federal Statistical Office Germany
Results of the 13th population projection
Compared to the 12th forecast based on 2013: 80,767,000, the following changes resulted:
- 2020 variant 1: 81,434,000 instead of 79,914,000 (1-W1)
- 2020 variant 2: 81,953,000 instead of 80,437,000 (1-W2)
An update of the 13th coordinated population projection based on the actual results of 2015 resulted in a population of 83,450,000 in 2020 (variant 2A).
The list of censuses in Germany provides an overview of the development of the population since 1834 .
Development of the working age population
With the decrease in the population in Germany, the working age population is also falling. The working age is set from 20 to 64 years. This population group is falling particularly sharply due to aging and shrinking. The Federal Statistical Office anticipates the following development:
Development of the working age population aged 20 to 64 in Germany from 2013 to 2060 - Basis: December 31, 2013:
|2013||49 million||49 million|
|2020||49 million||49 million|
|2030||44 million||45 million|
|2040||40 million||42 million|
|2050||38 million||41 million|
|2060||34 million||38 million|
Source: Federal Statistical Office Germany
From the company's point of view, demographic change is exacerbating the already existing shortage of skilled workers in Germany. Companies must increasingly take advantage of opportunities to better bind skilled workers to their company.
According to a recent study by the Institute of German Economy, contrary to earlier assumptions, the population of Germany will continue to grow due to greater immigration and will amount to around 83.1 million people in 2035.
Demographic strategy and demographic goals of Germany
In 2015, the federal government formulated the goal on its website, "The demographic policy of the federal government therefore aims to create framework conditions that increase prosperity for people of all generations in our country and further improve the quality of life ."
The demographic strategy of the German federal government of September 2015 names four starting points of central importance:
- To secure economic growth and prosperity in the long term so that future generations can also share in prosperity.
- To promote social cohesion, because resilient social relationships - in the family, the neighborhood, through to society and the world of work - are indispensable.
- To support equal living and working conditions in all regions and to ensure a high quality of life in town and country.
- To maintain the state's ability to act, to guarantee reliable social security systems and to keep the public service attractive.
In its “further developed demographic strategy” from 2015, the federal government names partners with whom it would like to work in more depth in ten working groups.
- "Good partnerships for strong families" (18 members),
- "Young people shape the future" (20 members),
- "Motivated, qualified and healthy work" (20 members),
- "Independent living in old age" (27 members),
- "Alliance for people with dementia" (23 members, e.g. BUNDESÄRZTEKAMMER),
- "Strengthening regions in the face of demographic change - promoting quality of life in urban and rural areas" (11 members),
- "Mobilizing all potential to secure the skilled labor base" (11 members),
- "Develop foreign labor potential and create a welcoming culture" (14 members, e.g. Federal Employment Agency),
- “Promote educational biographies” (11 members, e.g. University Rectors' Conference) and
- "The public service as an attractive and modern employer" (3 members).
Review: Strong focus on economic growth
In the case of the 'four starting points of central importance', there is again no indication of maintaining the population or (on average) having enough children - without prescribing this directly to the citizen. (See also criticism from Herwig Birg (in: The demographic clock is ticking relentlessly, March 5, 2015), 1981-2004 Director of the Institute for Population Research and Social Policy at Bielefeld University (Germany), and further criticism from Herwig Birg (January 9, 2015) 2013) to a previous version of the demographic strategy).
In the demographic strategy of the German federal government (2015), there is a strong focus in places on 'economic growth' including intensive recommendations on careers, but without mentioning 'family' or 'children' in the adjacent text. In the demographic strategy of the German federal government (2015) one finds z. E.g. on page 39 (pdf) 'Mobilizing all potentials to secure the skilled labor base' (without mentioning 'family'), p. 45 (pdf) also: '… it is more important than ever, each and every individual in their educational biographies to promote.' Evidence, e.g. B. on a mathematical basis that advertising of this kind for the career does not have a negative influence on the probability of making a decision about the (private) realization of children's wishes cannot be found in the text of the demographic strategy. Here, too, the relationships are relatively complex.
Municipal demographic strategy
In 2004, the city of Bielefeld was the first federal German municipality to set up a demographic development planning department in the mayor's department so that population development is taken into account in all urban planning. The demography officer Susanne Tatje received for her concept Demographic Change as an Opportunity? - The Bielefeld Concept 2006 the innovation award of the state of North Rhine-Westphalia. This concept was passed unanimously in the council of the city of Bielefeld in August 2006 and includes a. six demographic policy goals for Bielefeld on the topics of integration of immigrants, education, family policy, housing, health and economy. In addition, a procedure is presented how these goals can be processed in administration and politics. The city of Bielefeld published demographic reports in 2008, 2014 and 2016. The Office for Demography and Statistics in Bielefeld was dissolved on March 31, 2017 . Its tasks have been transferred to other municipal departments.
The Bielefeld demographic stamp also achieved a high level of awareness . This is a handout for the departments with concrete assistance for their planning. In the 2013 Science Year, which the Federal Ministry of Education and Research had proclaimed, the demographic stamp became an object of a traveling exhibition of the Leibniz Association on demographic change. A study published by Susanne Tatje in 2016 takes a critical look at the "position of demography officers in North Rhine-Westphalia".
Statements from the German economy
The Federal Association of Public Banks in Germany (VÖB) has published several documents to analyze demographic development in Germany in the form of B. so-called position papers or regarding real estate analyzes. These documents contain statistical figures and graphics for Germany, including the regional distribution of selected demographic and economic data.
In March 2006, the demographic situation in Germany is described as follows:
- "Persistently low birth rates and insufficient 'economic' immigration gains shape the picture"
- "Some regions are already facing social and economic problems."
- "Children stand for the future viability of our society."
- "Recognition is an indispensable prerequisite for raising children".
- It is also emphasized that the 16 development banks at the state level take on “additional regulatory functions in areas that the market does not sufficiently cover”.
In the document VÖB positions on 10 key issues for the 2009 Bundestag elections, it is predicted: “Population decline and aging will ... lead to very unequal developments in the regions. As demographic change is already irreversible, long-term and effective promotion strategy is needed that cushion the demographically induced developments, balance and can control. "Further analysis of the relationship between economics and demographics was from, German Bank Research '2013 in the form of drafting "Medium-sized companies and demography" created. The risk of a shortage of young talent is mentioned here: “Crisis in the euro area and demographics cloud prospects on European sales markets” (page 8). The influx of skilled workers to Germany is suggested as a possible solution scenario: For example, “... talent search abroad is a good idea. Many young people from southern European countries are currently looking for employment in Germany. This has led to increased immigration from these countries. "
In December 2015, the chief economist of Deutsche Bank, David Folkerts-Landau , gave the demographic prognosis in connection with the refugee crisis that he would “see 'no solution' for the aging of German society without immigration”.
History of demographic forecasts
After the racist population policy of the Nazi regime , demography in Germany was long a shadowy existence, as investigating or even influencing reproductive behavior was viewed as morally questionable.
It was only in connection with the political debate about maintaining social security that debates about demographic development or demographic change came up again in Germany. In some cases to this day, the discussion has remained focused on issues relating to the economy and social systems. With regard to old-age pensions , for example, there was talk (and we still talk today) about the problem of aging - although objectively it is not the existence of older people but the lack of younger ( under-youth ) that is a cause for concern.
- 1. increase in life expectancy,
- 2. The difference in the number of men - women, which increases with age,
- 3. Growing proportion of older people (1890% over 60, today 21%, in 2000 approx. 26%),
- 4. Growing share of the very old and over 100 years of age (very old, old people),
- 5. increasing differentiation of the elderly into different forms of life and behavior,
- 6. Development towards an age-neutral society,
- 7. Changed relation of age groups,
- 8. Decline in three-generation households, increase in one-generation and one-person households,
- 9. singularization,
- 10. Increase in four- and five-generation families,
- 11. Changes in the life cycle,
- 12. Shortening the family phase,
- 13. Increase in health resorts for retirees,
- 14. absolute increase in the need for long-term care, decrease in the potential of caregivers at home;
- 15. Increase in aging disabled people,
- 16. Increase in aging foreign citizens.
Since then, the following have been added to the scientific discussion:
- 17. Rejuvenation of Aging - People today are faced with aging problems earlier and longer in the course of their lives.
- 18. De-professionalization of the CV
- 19. further feminization of age.
Demographic data for Germany
With a total fertility rate (TFR) of around 1.50 births per woman, Germany had a rather low birth rate worldwide in 2015. In Italy (1.37) and Spain (1.32), however, the total fertility rate was even lower. Since the 1980s, the total fertility rate has fluctuated between around 1.2 and 1.5 children per woman. Cohort fertility (CFR), on the other hand, has fallen relatively continuously - parallel to the ever higher average age of the mothers - from just under 2.0 for women born in 1940 to just under 1.5 for women born in 1965. In East Germany it remained at around 1.8 for those born between 1948 and 1958, then fell and for the year 1965, at just under 1.6, it largely approached the West German level. After reunification, the TFR in the new federal states fell to a historic low of around 0.8 children per woman in 1994 (the lowest value ever recorded worldwide) and has since then gradually approached the western German value. To reproduce a population with mortality ratios such as For example, in Germany, it is necessary, on the other hand, that every woman gives birth to around 2.1 children on average (TFR 2.08).
Germany is thus in a global trend that is also known as the demographic-economic paradox : the more prosperous and educated a society, the fewer children it has. According to a study by the Berlin Institute , however, this no longer applies to the internal comparison of highly industrialized countries: "In Western Europe, there is no longer any evidence of an economic-demographic paradox."
Forecasts in Germany
The population projections carried out by the regional statistical offices in Germany always contain a section on methodology, parameters and assumptions.
In Thuringia , a population forecast was drawn up in 2009 based on the values from December 31, 2008. A migration balance of –13,000 people (actually it was –8026 people) and for 2010 of –11,800 people (actually –5741 people) was forecast for 2009. This means that the deviation in migration was already over 50% in the second year of the forecast. Continued over five, ten or twenty years, the inaccuracy would be so great that the informative value of such a population prognosis falls sharply. The example shows that future migratory movements are difficult to predict and are heavily dependent on short-term factors. For 2011, such factors include the suspension of compulsory military service , the opening of the labor market for Eastern Europeans, and the dual Abitur cohorts in some West German federal states. The development of the economy , which cannot be forecast for decades into the future, is also decisive . These factors also apply to the population forecasts for the other German states.
The different results from ZENSUS 2011 also have to be taken into account. For example, for men over 90 years of age, the assumed or underlying figures had to be corrected downwards by a significant 30 percent. But also in other age groups and with earlier population figures there were mostly “population losses”. In Flensburg alone there was a lack of around 6500 inhabitants, which were often inexplicable. Many cities and municipalities have against the stipulated results according to CENSUS 2011 sued.
The forecasts are of political and economic importance because the municipal financial equalization also depends on the number of inhabitants. In 2014, for example, the city of Bremerhaven sued the Bremen Administrative Court because officially 5000 fewer residents had been expelled and the city of Bremerhaven received almost half a million euros less per year as a result.
The demographic development in East Germany
The demographic changes in East Germany, due to their scope and speed, have both economic and fiscal effects. In addition to a shrinking population, there are also age structure effects, the economic effects of which can be quite significant. The proportion of the generation of pensioners will increase sharply, and the proportion of children and young people will decrease accordingly. The number of people of working age will also decrease significantly, because more people will leave working life for reasons of age than young people will “move up”. The new federal states are thus anticipating a development that can also occur in a similar form in western Germany with a delay of 20 years. As a result, analyzes of political measures in eastern German regions are of high relevance for western Germany.
- List of German federal states by fertility rate
- List of the German federal states according to life expectancy
- List of the German federal states according to population density
- List of major cities in Germany
- Demographic change in Germany
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- see also: Nepalese in Germany
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